# Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs Grand Theft Auto IV vs Call of Duty 4 vs Super Mario Galaxy 2009 _source: Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs Grand Theft Auto IV vs Call of Duty 4 vs Super Mario Galaxy 2009 (revid 65284)_ ## Results **Round Two** Saturday, May 23rd, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Division 2007-2009 Semi Final - **Match \#:** 47 - **Match Date:** Saturday, May 23rd, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 31.45% Call of Duty 4 - 31.02% Super Mario Galaxy - 20.49% Grand Theft Auto IV - 17.11% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Brawl first place (4pts) - 35.94% Brawl second place (2pts) - 16.30% CoD 4 second place (4pts) - 32.45% CoD 4 first place (2pts) - 17.67% - **Advancing Prediction:** Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 52.24% (20,006) Call of Duty 4 - 50.12% (19,194) Remember the people like me that argued Call of Duty 4 was strong, and could sneak into second place in this match above an SFFd Brawl? Well, we were all stupid. Really, really stupid. Oh we called CoD4's strength well enough, but the SFF in this match went entirely the other way. Brawl didn't just beat down and SFF Galaxy here; this was arguably the most meaningful, embarrassing SFF beating we've ever seen in a contest. This got so bad that Galaxy lost its third place lead over Grand Theft Auto 4 within an hour and a half. This was just horrible. Pathetic. Terribad. Any synonym you can think of for "legendary meltdown". It was a horrible result, and it made Galaxy the biggest flop of the entire contest. This also proved Brawl as the Wii title, above Galaxy (obviously) and probably above Twilight Princess. Yes Twilight Princess is technically a Gamecube title, but hush. Twilight Princess was on a clear path for its chance at Brawl two rounds from here, but it had no chance based on round 2 results. TP was leeched, while Brawl was dominant. The most dominant game of the latter two divisions through two rounds. Easily. Brawl's impressive performance here can easily make you forget how well CoD4 did to finish in second place, but do remember how most people thought Brawl and Galaxy would both be strong enough to finish in some order of 1-2 here, regardless of splitting. After this match, the contenders for the fourth game in the final looked like such: Brawl, Final Fantasy X, Metal Gear Solid 4. That's it. RBY and Melee both had Ocarina in the way, so the list was trimmed down to three within two rounds. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Tonight is... well, its super weird. CoD's the clear favorite for first place, and you'd have to say "deservedly so" after the way it didn't have any trouble with SMG past the first few minutes last time around. But somehow I have absolutely zero faith in this game. The entire FPS genre has been awful here in 2009 (aside from shooters with Nintendo appeal, and even then RE4 and GE looked bad back in R1). CoD's closest proxy, Halo, has gone 3 for 3 in wilting under pressure... what makes C4 different? I guess you could say its helped out by having strong PC appeal, and I suppose you could even make a case for it being the "RE4 of the CoD series", and that today's result ought to be give Duty-backers more confidence. But... I'm not sold. Melee was monstrous a couple days back, and I don't think Brawl should be all that far behind it, especially not after that very impressive performance last round. And the Snake + Mario pick is fantastic- there's no doubting that Snake popping out of that box was the moment that Brawl hype reached its peak internet-wide. Yup, everything seems to be working in SSBB's favor... and yet I can't shake the feeling that there was something extremely fishy about that Galaxy/Pokemon match. With the way even G/S/C was able to resist SFF from both Zelda and a superior Pokemon game, you've got to let SMG off the hook for not beating down D/P harder, don't you? And if so, isn't there a chance that we could be vastly underestimating it here? I think so, and that's why I'm going to back... Call of Duty! I do so not out of any kind of respect for the game or that series, but rather because I'm worried that we may have pegged Galaxy way wrong. With the way everyone outside of America has abandoned the Wii its going to be very difficult for Brawl + Galaxy to combine for much over 50%, which means that as long as Mario doesn't crumble badly CoD has to remain in the driver's seat. On the other hand, there's a distinct possibility that GTA4 messes this all up by limiting C4's casual appeal. Yes the GTAs have bombed, but with how much Europe despises the Wii and isn't too sold on the 360 either, G4 should figure to have a very strong overnight vote that might be enough to keep it relevant. Yup, so I'm leaning toward a result looking a little something like THIS: - Call of Duty 4 - 30.45% - Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 30.38% - Super Mario Galaxy - 21.81% - Grand Theft Auto IV - 17.35% Sure would be wonderful to see Galaxy redeem itself by massively improving on that pred though, as all its younger brothers did this round. ### Next Day Review Got to say I disagree with the way everyone's reacting to today's result. Yes Galaxy is looking bad, but "flop of the Contest," come on now! Sure Brawl is beating it down with 72%, but we've always known that same-console Nintendo SFF can be brutal. Ocarina did exactly this same thing to the two N64 titles it overshadowed, and yet Mario 64 and Goldeneye both bounced back with impressive performances that have us talking them up as top 10/15 games once again. And as for R1, well, even R/B/Y was only able to push G/S/C down to 42%- Pokemon generations are apparently just impossible to SFF much (at all?), so again I don't think that's any reason to hate on SMG. I mean clearly its a couple steps below that SMW/Mario 64 tier, but I bet it'll bounce back and show itself to be a respectable mid-carder once we get to see it without Brawl or TP interfering. The only thing we can really take away from this result is that, just like every other FPS this season, CoD4 is a fraud (at least in terms of being able to compete with MGS4/FO3 next round like we were hoping). And also, the hated Wii was surprisingly able to earn 57% of the vote against two options that did a pretty fair job of covering the 360, PC, and PS3 fanbases- between that and TP's strong stand yesterday, looks like all of the gloom and doom regarding post-N64 Nintendo was a bit overblown. Have to imagine both of those heavy hitters will be fine through next round... but TP/Brawl/MGS4/RE4, yikes, now that will be something to talk about! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3492&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=47) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=47) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match**