# (1)2B vs (9)Ness 2018

_source: (1)2B vs (9)Ness 2018 (revid 83849)_

## Ulti's Analysis

2B's prediction percentage here was no accident. A lot of people, myself included, felt like the Ness/Shadow winner could win this match and that 2B was a hilariously overseeded character. People have major recency bias about this and think her match with Bowser proves she's legit, which shows a lack of context. Not dumping on her or Automata here, but it's just facts.

She beat Ness and beat him easily, but this match was close enough in percents to prove she was not a legitimate 1 seed. Maybe a 2 or a 3, but 1 seeds are held to one standard and one standard only -- "Can they win the contest?". Some will point to characters like Sonic and Mega Man, but low rank noble niners could, conceivably, win a contest without an insane rally. Even high midcarders like Zero or Luigi could do it. Just remove Link from a bracket, have Mario and Samus get randomly upset somewhere, and Luigi or Zero could catch fire. We saw Zelda do something similar just this year.

2B? Nope. Not when you're getting 54% on Ness you aren't. People look at one good match with Bowser as proof, but one good match doesn't erase the point here. Legitimacy means having results like that over and over again for years. Consistency. I like her a lot, but I harshly judge 1 seeds. It's part of the deal, lady, and 54% on Ness is just bad news. I don't care about Smash. You're a 1 seed.

To put this a different way, is Shadow the Hedgehog legit? <https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1345-south-division-round-2-mario-vs-shadow-the-hedgehog>

Is Magus? <https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1353-north-division-semifinal-link-vs-magus>

(The hilarious irony here is 2B might actually get into Smash and cause this writeup to fade away and classify itself as ob-so-lete by 2020. Shout out to the Hardyz.)

## Tsunami's Analysis

Ness was the straight-up Guru favorite here, and that's even before taking into account that considerably more people took Shadow to win this match than took 2B to lose last round to Cayde-6. So yeah, this came as kind of a surprise.

I didn't even realize until this contest was well underway that Nier is a Square Enix franchise. I'm not sure if that knowledge would've given me more faith in 2B, or less. Probably less, because everything post-merger tends to be completely trash in these contests.

The casuals didn't exactly jump all over us on this one, either. Given that 2B's Round 1 prediction percentage was only 81% or something, the 46.42% this round means she was probably technically the favorite, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Ness + Shadow had more brackets than 2B + Cayde-6.

## Safer777's Analysis

Now this result was a suprise. We have a newcomer defeating a Nintendo/Smash character in Round 2 no less! Damn! Don't know what to say. I guess the SC6 boost is real? Maybe the fanservice is so strong? Okay I know that Ness is weak and such. Still you would think that he would be able to defeat a newcomer from a new game. We don't play new games here as you know! But anyways I guess 2B has some strength with the recent announcent of her beeing in SC 6. Still nice win from her.

Once again I will say it was a suprise since most Gurus had Ness here anyways. Again though these kind of results are always nice.
