# (10)Captain Toad vs (15)Aeris Gainsborough 2018

_source: (10)Captain Toad vs (15)Aeris Gainsborough 2018 (revid 83862)_

## Ulti's Analysis

Feels weird going back to normal writeups after the behemoth from last match, but hey! It also feels weird talking about Aeris in a 60-40 match with Toad. Is this impressive for Aeris? A failure for Aeris? Just a good performance by Toad? We can't exactly go by the 2007 numbers (the only other time Toad was in a contest) because both characters had SFF everywhere in their matches. I can't reliably go by that Toad number when Bowser was right there.

Besides. That was Toad. This is CAPTAIN Toad! SHOUT OUT TO NICK, STAR OF THE CONTEST AND WINNER OF MY HEART. MAPLE LEAFS GONNA DO IT IN OUR LIFETIME SON.

One thing I do know is that Aeris was the first, and currently the only, 15 seed to win two matches. And given she was up against Fox next, she was going to win three matches before bowing out. It shows how badly seeded we made this bracket, and I say "we" because it was clear Board 8 had way too big an influence here. This bracket had the worst seeding since Current Events decided everything back in 2002, and Aeris being a 15 seed might be the biggest example. But I love giant seeds facing each other and advancing, so hey, more fun for me.

## Tsunami's Analysis

Look at those numbers. Captain Toad lands right on a multiple of 1,000, and Aerith comes up just *five votes short* of breaking 60%. Which actually does amount to a swing of just one registered user's vote making it 60% exactly (17997 to 11998).

The overall Oracle consensus was that Captain Toad exceeded expectations, but as you'd expect with it falling so close to a round number, the top picks were all extremely close. Five different people went for 60.00% exactly, and it would've had to fall right on it for them to get first place because 59.99% and 60.01% were also taken (which, yes, means that a score of 49.98 failed to be good for a top five. There's a 49.89 that's outside the top ten.)

Also, if anything, Ulti's underselling this. We were literally guaranteed a double-digit seed in Round 4 by the end of Round 1, because all four matches in the bottom half of this division went in favor of the lower seed. The real NCAA tournament has never seen that happen, though it's seen plenty of half-regions where the higher seeds went 1-3 in Round 1, including last year's South Regional where UMBC became the first 16-seed to upset a 1-seed. That regional was crazy, with a 9-seed upsetting a 5-seed in the Sweet Sixteen with *neither* of them having pulled a seeding upset the previous round, only for the 9-seed to *get upset* in the Elite Eight because they were playing an 11-seed. Who only needed to beat a 7-seed in the Sweet Sixteen.

Well, at least the seeding helps explain away the weird prediction percentages in these last two matches. Well, that and RallyFEAR. And Fox having had a legitimately debated match in Round 1.

## Safer777's Analysis

After Aeris(that is how it was spelled in the game back in my day you know!)beat Waluigi we knew that she would win the 2nd round match of course. Also funny enough  that means that Waluigi\>Toad! Damn! Anyways Aeris was lucky that she got 2 weak opponents and she advanced to Round 3. But I believe next round she loses. Also both  wins were under 60%. I like when the results are closer myself. Well at least FF7 scored some wins. Still that proves that FF 7  always wins. The prediction percentage was low too but this is normal since the bottom division was very strange.