# (3)Alucard vs (7)Kefka 2018

_source: (3)Alucard vs (7)Kefka 2018 (revid 84051)_

## Ulti's Analysis

In the guru, Kefka was the overwhelming favorite in this match. Half of people picked him here, and the leftovers was an even mix of Yuna, L-Block, and Alucard. Pre-contest the Alucard/Yuna match was 50-50 on the board, while most people assumed the L/Kefka winner would make a deep contest run. In the oracle, most people favored Alucard here and had figured out mid-contest the guy had clearly boosted somewhere. I don't know if it was his game coming to PS4 or the Castlevania Netflix series or popping up in that Smash video or what, but this guy was on crack this year. This was a match few people saw coming in a very debatable division, and Alucard just trounced the pre-contest favorite.

Well, after five minutes of Kefka keeping things even for the board vote anyways. This was a tie at the freeze, and then after things got going Alucard just smoked this clown. That wasn't TY Hilton, The Joker, or people from The Purge over there that could actually fight back, either, but an actual clown that just rolled over and starting crying the second he got punched in the mouth. Kefka is one of those characters I'll never get a proper read on in these things, because even with Alucard looking better going in you just never know with this guy. Kefka could have been the one getting 60% here with how much of an oddball he is, but unfortunately for him this was Alucard's year. Alucard made Kefka look like lucky fodder that came from a weak fourpack, when he really wasn't. Kefka belonged here and just got smoked.

And if it wasn't for PokeFEAR, Alucard would have far and away the universal favorite next match.

## Safer777's Analysis

So as matches went we saw that Alucard did good and Kefka did good too. So Kefka we thought had some chances to win. Yeah sure. Man this guy trolls us all the time! How he does that in all the contests nobody knows. But as for Alucard. Not only he does so good but he has a chance to take a division too! First time he does so well. Yeah the opponents are weak sure. But still. Alucard is on a roll here. I wonder why. Alucard...is Dracula spelled backwards! WHAT? Mind=blown!

But in all seriousness nice to see such a character to reach that far. Still it seems that the division final match will be amazing. Finally a Castlevania game/character is doing so good. Yeah I know we had SOTN doing good once but still. Variety is always nice! We need to have such things instead of you know FF and Zelda games/characters. As for  Kefka...pretty sure he laughs on us all! Keep doing what are you doing Kefka! And of course in the next contest prepare for a trolling for him again!

## Tsunami's Analysis

This match goes beyond simply "lolKefka". This is like a "*lolKefkaception*". Pre-contest, Kefka was a definitive favorite here, getting over 50% of Gurus. The second most popular pick to win this match among Gurus was literally Kefka's first-round opponent, L-Block. Yet it was precisely because of this that, come match time, we all knew that Kefka was the underdog. "Kefka/L-Block winner" was a 154-6 pick over "Kiryu/Bomberman winner", while Alucard was only an 87-67 favorite over Yuna (remaining 6 brackets taking Alucard's Round 1 opponent, Peach.) But Alucard was every bit as dominant as Kefka against what appeared to be a stronger foe!

And yet, Kefka still embarrassed himself here, *barely* outdoing Yuna's number against Alucard. In fact, Kefka and Yuna are only two spots apart in the raw X-Stats. Kefka's \#33, and Yuna's \#35. And therein lies the biggest joke of all. That one spot between them belongs to none other than *Terra Branford*! And while the raw X-Stats are a bit wonky due to the number of SFF matches in the late rounds, Division 3 is probably the truest numbers you'll get, and Division 4 the second-truest as it's only stuck behind Cloud \> Crono, which is marginal at best. Division 1 is stuck behind Link \> Ganondorf, Division 2 behind Link \> Pikachu, and Divisions 5-8 behind Link \> Zelda. So it becomes kind of hard to argue that there's some sort of SFF result leading to Terra being right behind Kefka--if anything, you could actually make a case for Terra \> Kefka indirectly, as Terra's number is not only behind Cloud \> Crono but also Bowser \> Charizard, which is probably a stronger SFF result.

And even with the evidence that Alucard was stronger, nearly 37% of Oracles still backed Kefka here. Because it just makes more sense.

The casuals, on the other hand, seemed to tentatively have this one from the start. Vaguely. Over 25% of them picked this, down from just under 49% having him reach this round. That was largely on the first round, however--Yuna was a far heavier favorite to reach round 2, but Alucard still managed to get that respectable R2 prediction percentage. It's highly unlikely, especially given Kefka's R2 prediction percentage being worse than Alucard's, that any other character had a higher percentage. Which kind of says what we'd all been thinking--Division 3 was thought to be wide open. Or at least, the bottom half was.