# Character Battle 2006

_Board 8 wiki -- CC BY-SA 3.0. Contest overview plus 68 match writeups, in match order. Converted from MediaWiki to Markdown; navigation, image embeds and footnotes stripped. See ATTRIBUTION.md._


---

## Summer 2006 Contest

_source: Summer 2006 Contest (revid 83997)_

<table>
<caption><strong>Summer 2006 Contest</strong></caption>
<thead>
<tr class="header">
<th><p>Announced:</p></th>
<th><p>June 26, 2006</p></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td><p>Started:</p></td>
<td><p>September 21, 2006</p></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><p>Ended:</p></td>
<td><p>November 13, 2006 (regular)</p>
<p><code>Nov 18, 2006 (BR)</code></p></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><p>Winner:</p></td>
<td><p>Regular bracket: Samus Aran</p>
<p>Battle Royale: Link</p>
<p>'''ULTIMATE BATTLE</p></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><p>Contest Winner:</p></td>
<td><p>Jakyl25 (220/240 pts)</p></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><p>Notable matches:</p></td>
<td><p>Kairi vs. Claire, Luigi vs. Zero, Sub-Zero vs. MC, Jill vs. Peach, Samus vs. Tifa, Sonic vs. Crono</p></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

**Summer 2006 Contest**

On June 26, 2006, CJayC [announced](http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=11&topic=27984184) that there was going to be a **2006 Character Battle**. However there was now a "twist"- instead of nominating any 10 characters, you had to nominate 7 male characters and 7 female characters.

The bracket was made of 32 spots for males and females, with the strongest male going against the strongest female in the Championship. Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, and Mario were separated in a "Battle Royale", similar to the "Tournament of Champions" of SC2005.

On August 18 the 1 and 8 seeds were announced, along with the fact that Midgar Zolom and Jay Solano wouldn't make it in, much to the dismay of many Board 8 users. Solano would later appear in a Board 8-only match against Link.

## Bracket

<table border=1 width=100% class=genrebox>
<tr>
<td colspan=7>

Contest Bracket

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan=4 class=columncolor2>

Spazer Division

</td>
<td rowspan=10>

Samus Tifa

</td>
<td rowspan=20>

Samus Zelda

</td>
<td rowspan=40>

Samus Snake

</td>
<td rowspan=40>

Samus

<tr>
<td>

\(1\) Samus (8) Nidoran F

</td>
<td rowspan=2>

Samus Ada

</td>
<td rowspan=4>

Samus Rikku

</td>
<tr>
<td>

\(4\) Ada Wong (5) Jade

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(3\) Rikku (6) Lenneth Valkyrie

</td>
<td rowspan=2>

Rikku Kairi

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(2\) Kairi (7) Claire Redfield

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan=4 class=columncolor2>

Limit Division

</td>
<tr>
<td>

\(1\) Tifa (8) Ivy Valentine

</td>
<td rowspan=2>

Tifa The Boss

</td>
<td rowspan=4>

Tifa Peach

</td>
<tr>
<td>

\(4\) The Boss (5) Celes

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(3\) Jill Valentine (6) Sheena Fujibayashi

</td>
<td rowspan=2>

Jill Peach

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(2\) Princess Peach (7) Princess Daisy

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan=4 class=columncolor2>

Triforce Division

</td>
<td rowspan=10>

Zelda Yuna

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(1\) Zelda (8) Carmen Sandiego

</td>
<td rowspan=2>

Zelda Terra

</td>
<td rowspan=4>

Zelda Aeris

</td>
<tr>
<td>

\(4\) Terra Branford (5) Sarah Kerrigan

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(3\) KOS-MOS (6) Amy Rose

</td>
<td rowspan=2>

KOS-MOS Aeris

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(2\) Aeris (7) Marle

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan=4 class=columncolor2>

Aeon Division

</td>
<tr>
<td>

\(1\) Yuna (8) Roll

</td>
<td rowspan=2>

Yuna Joanna

</td>
<td rowspan=4>

Yuna Chun-Li

</td>
<tr>
<td>

\(4\) Joanna Dark (5) Cortana

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(3\) Chun Li (6) Kasumi

</td>
<td rowspan=2>

Chun-Li Lara

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(2\) Lara Croft (7) Alyx Vance

</td>
<tr>
<td colspan=4 class=columncolor2>

Patriot Division

</td>
<td rowspan=10>

Snake Mega Man

</td>
<td rowspan=20>

Snake Sonic

</td>
<tr>
<td>

\(1\) Solid Snake (8) Soma

</td>
<td rowspan=2>

Snake Squall

</td>
<td rowspan=4>

Snake Yoshi

</td>
<tr>
<td>

\(4\) Squall (5) Tidus

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(3\) Riku (6) Yoshi

</td>
<td rowspan=2>

Yoshi Dante

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(2\) Dante (7) Ryu Hayabusa

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan=4 class=columncolor2>

Destiny Division

</td>
<tr>
<td>

\(1\) Sora (8) Tingle

</td>
<td rowspan=2>

Sora Gordon

</td>
<td rowspan=4>

Sora Mega Man

</td>
<tr>
<td>

\(4\) Phoenix Wright (5) Gordon Freeman

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(3\) Kratos (God of War) (6) Ryu

</td>
<td rowspan=2>

Ryu Mega Man

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(2\) Mega Man (7) Axel

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan=4 class=columncolor2>

Blast Division

</td>
<td rowspan=10>

Sonic Crono

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(1\) Sonic the Hedgehog (8) CATS

</td>
<td rowspan=2>

Sonic Vincent

</td>
<td rowspan=4>

Sonic Luigi

</td>
<tr>
<td>

\(4\) Ganondorf (5) Vincent Valentine

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(3\) Kirby (6) The Prince of Persia

</td>
<td rowspan=2>

Kirby Luigi

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(2\) Luigi (7) Zero

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan=4 class=columncolor2>

Time Division

</td>
<tr>
<td>

\(1\) Crono (8) Captain Falcon

</td>
<td rowspan=2>

Crono Bowser

</td>
<td rowspan=4>

Crono Auron

</td>
<tr>
<td>

\(4\) Bowser (5) Leon Kennedy

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(3\) Auron (6) Alucard

</td>
<td rowspan=2>

Auron Sub-Zero

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(2\) Master Chief (7) Sub-Zero

</td>
</tr>
</table>

## Results and Analysis

### Interesting Facts

- The Ultimate Loser of the 2006 Contest was Master Chief. Chief lost to Sub-Zero, who lost to Auron, who lost to Crono, who lost to Sonic, who lost to Solid Snake, who lost to Samus.
- 14 of the 64 characters who appeared in this contest haven't made a Character Battle since. To no one's surprise, 13 of the 14 are female; the only male on that list is Soma Cruz.

### Ulti's Analysis

CJayC halfway announced a surprise twist this time around by making the nomination form 7 male 7 female. He never actually said what the twist \*was\*, but the three ideas thrown around were a 32-32 bracket, a tag team battle or a 48-16 bracket. The last one made no sense and a tag team would be match pic hell for Ceej, so even though no one wanted to admit it until they saw it, we were due for some 32-32 goodness. Or badness.

The last post Slowflake read before leaving Board 8 for good (allegedly \<\_\<):

*From CJayC Posted 8/18/2006 8:00:34 PM \#001*

*Preliminary, may change, but looking solid.*

*1s:*

*Solid Snake, Sora, Sonic, Crono.*

*Samus, Zelda, Tifa, Yuna.*

*8s:*

*Soma, CATS, Captain Falcon, Tingle.*

*Roll. Carmen Sandiego, Ivy, Nidoran F.*

*And, for the record, Midgar Zolom and Jay Solano weren't even remotely in the running.*

This did little more than reveal the 32-32 format, as well as an 8x8 format therein. General consensus was that the male side was a beast to predict, but the female side was horrendous. Given how everything went down, it's hard to disagree with this.

My personal ranking of contests:

1.  Summer 2002
2.  Spring 2004 (Games)
3.  Summer 2006
4.  Summer 2003
5.  Summer 2005
6.  Spring 2006 (Series)
7.  Spring 2005 (Villains)
8.  Summer 2004

### Ngamer's Analysis

Eh, I think everyone knows the story of '06 pretty well. Really terrible and fodderific (as in, *Villains-bad*) Female half pulled out of the fire at least somewhat by Peach/Jill and the complete insanity that was Samus/Tifa, while the Male side was great throughout. That half was just solid top to bottom, and featured some true gems in Sonic/Crono, the truly delightful Subby \> MC, and fun upsets in Luigi \> Zero and Steroid Snake's awesome run. And then to have more surprises in the BR with Mario dropping out early and Snake outlasting Sephy was just the icing on the cake. Overall I'd rate 2006 as a "Very Good" Contest, but the 28 or so useless Female matchups are always going to hold it back from "Great" status.

---

## (1)Samus Aran vs (8)Nidoran F 2006

_source: (1)Samus Aran vs (8)Nidoran F 2006 (revid 56663)_

## Results

**Round One**

Tuesday, September 12th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Spazer Division
- **Match \#:** 01
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, September 12th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 74,353
- **Oracle Expectations:** Samus Aran - 90.03% 145 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Samus Aran - 97.16% (41,435 brackets)

Of all the joke characters that were heavily rallied by Board 8, Nidoran F was the one that made it. I don't know how much of this had to do with Ceej manually not caring about some results (there's no WAY Solano didn't have enough noms), but it's a known fact that Nidoran also had the full backing of LUE and LL. Her reward was to be 8 seed fodder.

*Insert silly "The first match isn't about who wins, but by how much" line*

We've had what, eight contests? And 8 times, we've seen Nintendo take the \#1 overall seed. 8 times, we've seen Nintendo make a killing in that first match. This one was a mite different depending on your perspective. Either Samus was supposed to SFF Nidoran F into oblivion en route to like a 95-5 beating, or you remembered that Samus always stinks up the joint against Nintendo. And in this case, that paired with the joke entrant factor kept Samus under 80% for quite awhile. She eventually would "only" win with 81.85% of the vote, and leave it to Board 8 to start writing a character's epitaph after ONLY scoring 81.85% in a match. Nothing here proved anything about Samus; NF just had the joke factor going for her, plus Pokemon has legitimate strength anyway. NOMINATE MEWTWO PLZ KTHX.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2499&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=1)

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## (4)Ada Wong vs (5)Jade 2006

_source: (4)Ada Wong vs (5)Jade 2006 (revid 56665)_

## Results

**Round One**

Wednesday, September 13th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Spazer Division
- **Match \#:** 02
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, September 13th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 50,829
- **Oracle Expectations:** Ada Wong - 63.77% 146 for - 1 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Ada Wong - 64.77% (27,622 brackets)

This match was the first of many that would cause mass whining about the female bracket, though the whining was kind of funny in this match. "Who the F is Jade?" was the slogan of the day, as well as postulations claiming that Jade from Mortal Kombat would have given Ada a real match.

...come to think of it, I can't remember what game Jade is from. Beyond Good and Evil, was it?

Anyway, depending on your perspective, this match was one of two things. Either Ada was a complete beast, or Jade just sucked. It wouldn't take long for us to find out, because Ada's easy win meant a date with Samus in the next round.

Fun little note: the Resident Evil day vote is so pathetic that Ada's percentage actually went down a little bit before she made a slight recovery in the evening. I'm also completely out of things to say (boring matches featuring two noobs do that), so I'll just ask "HOW THE \*\*\*\* DID JADE GET A 5 SEED?" and move on.

Honestly, Jade was so pathetic that our streak of matches breaking 100,000 total votes ended by about 1850. Damn yoooooooou. On the bright side, I had actually polished up RE4 just before this contest began. Seeing Ada win a match was pretty nice, and I don't care what XIII says. Ada is the third best character in Mercs for her semi-auto rifle *alone*. As for how much damage she takes, stop sucking and learn how to avoid things \<\_\<

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2500&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=2)

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## (3)Rikku vs (6)Lenneth Valkyrie 2006

_source: (3)Rikku vs (6)Lenneth Valkyrie 2006 (revid 63951)_

## Results

**Round One**

Thursday, September 14th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Spazer Division
- **Match \#:** 03
- **Match Date:** Thursday, September 14th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 55,420
- **Oracle Expectations:** Rikku - 74.78% 147 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Rikku - 85.94% (36,650 brackets)

One of these days, I need to get around to playing the iso of Valkyrie Profile that I own (er, HAVE \<\_\<) just to see how Lenneth is doing so well in that "Who Would Win in a Fight?" contest. I don't think I've ever seen KOS-MOS lose a match in one of those things until this year.

And with that said, isn't it odd to think that Rikku is the FFX entity to pull off the biggest blowout for the series? Tidus, Auron, Yuna, and even FFX itself couldn't ever pull 75% in a poll, but Rikku could. Says a lot about how many people even know who Lenneth is.

I should also get around to playing Valkyrie Profile 2 one of these days, for the same reasons as above. But thinking about that is depressing, because my backlog of games is absolutely beyond catching up with :(

Hmm, what else can be said about such a boring blowout... Well the vote totals got back above 100,000, and I believe they stayed there for the rest of the contest. Rikku proved that last year's good match against Ryu was no fluke, at least in terms of being consistent. It's difficult for most flukes to ever break 75% in a match, unless they're up against complete jokes. And if this match didn't prove Rikku's worth, the second round likely would in the eyes of most.

You know, I just noticed that of all of Ceej's division names, "Spazer" is the most badass-sounding of them all. Ruin and Patriot come close, but come on. Spazer? FF6 taking a 1 seed in a games contest and being named the Havoc Wing division is the only thing I can think of that sounds more badass.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2501&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=3)

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## (2)Kairi vs (7)Claire Redfield 2006

_source: (2)Kairi vs (7)Claire Redfield 2006 (revid 56669)_

## Results

**Round One**

Friday, September 15th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Spazer Division
- **Match \#:** 04
- **Match Date:** Friday, September 15th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 4,496
- **Oracle Expectations:** Kairi - 54.70% 110 for - 39 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Kairi - 62.48% (26,645 brackets)

There were about 9 million good reasons for either character potentially winning this match, and I don't have nearly enough free time to cover them all. So here's a couple of bullet lists of pros that favored both characters:

Kairi:

- Kingdom Hearts 2
- Sora and Riku's past performances lining up well with RE's, and a KH2 boost would be enough to put Kairi over the top.
- KH fans care about Kairi a little more than RE fans care about Claire. The seeding for the two characters helps prove this weirdo theory people had.
- Jill went down pretty much every year until she was out of the bracket entirely, while the KH crew went up. Claire was in one bracket, 2002, and her Xst rating in that bracket is completely irrelevant.

Claire:

- Said 2002 performance proving some potential strength.
- Resident Evil 4; there had to be some carry-over to past games, right?
- KAIRI DOES NOTHING in either game until the tail end of both.
- Resident Evil had a higher Xst rating in the series contest than Kingdom Hearts, and the series contest happened post-KH2.
- RE2 fans claim that Claire is the most popular character in the game.

Basically, seeding aside, this was a good tossup match. A lot of people picked Kairi based on seeding and KH2, yet she is completely untested and likely only got the seeding because of how fodder-y the female half was. On Claire's side, we've at least seen her in action before with some strength, even if Tidus has since bombed to hell and back since his glory days of 2002-2003. Matches where we have no stats to go on and both characters have good chances of winning are always the best.

Kairi began the match with an expected bracket vote surge, and she kept up her momentum en route to a lead of over 500 after just over 90 minutes. But she never took full control of the match, and just like during Castlevania/Kingdom Hearts in the series contest, a night vote beast would put KH back on its heels.

1:40 into the match, Kairi had a 535 vote lead. 5 minutes later, Claire shot that thing down to 463 and just kept on rolling from there. RE's historically good night vote took over, and after a stall effort from Kairi in which she pushed her lead back over 500, Claire took control of the night. It was a painstaking process for her for quite awhile thanks to a ton of Kairi stalling, but the dead of night allowed Claire to push the lead under 200.

Unfortunately, the morning vote hit Claire like a storm surge and Kairi was back over 500 in no time. But then all of the kids went to school, and Claire once again found herself chipping away bit by bit. Her breakthrough finally came around lunchtime. 10:40 into the match, Kairi was up by 300 votes. It took Claire one hour to gain the lead for the first time, and she used the rest of the in-school vote very well; by the time the kids got out of school, Claire had a 500 vote lead of her own.

Here's where the fun really began. Now for starters, Smurf more or less bragged about vote-stuffing for Claire and got himself axed during the match. Whether or not he actually did will always be 'officially' unknown, but it's very rare for someone to get an axe for simply joking about cheating during a match that wasn't all that close.

And regardless, it didn't even matter in the end. All Kingdom Hearts fans and contest veterans knew what was coming, which was KH yet again laying waste to some poor sap during the day vote. KH came back against Soul Calibur twice during the day. Riku gave Frog a mild scare during the day. Sora turned an even match with Alucard into a joke during the day. Ansem, despite being in trouble against CATS for hours, laid waste to him once the day vote came along. And these are just famous example of KH winning matches this way; it's cut off a ton of percentage during the day vote in almost all of its losses as well.

Claire Redfield would end up the next sap in line for a KH day vote beating. At 2:25 EST, Claire was up by 500 votes on Kairi. It didn't even take an hour and a half for Kairi to erase all of that, and Kairi went absolutely berserk on Claire once she caught up to her. Claire's 500 vote lead turned into getting her face kicked in by almost 4500 votes by match's end. This rivals the great vote swings ever seen in contests, and turned a pretty good match into a one-sided joke. Claire was 9 and a half hours away from what would have been a pretty nice upset, but not a lot of people are going to remember that; instead, the KH day vote archive was being set in stone.

Regardless of who you were pulling for here, put some perspective on what Kairi did here. In all three KH games, the only action she takes that I like her for is the KH1 ending sequence. It's an amazing sequence and I love her for it, but you'll never hear me saying anything about how deep she is. She does hardly anything in any of the games, despite the story virtually revolving around Sora and Riku's shared love for her. And yet because of the series she stars in, she kicked the holy hell out of what RE fans consider an elite. Um... ouch?

KH2F confirmed. I don't think there's a chance in hell Kairi wins this if this match is held in 2005, but we'll never really know. What I can say for sure is that a handful of RE characters could certainly use a leading role or two in upcoming RE games, assuming they're as good as 4.

## Match Trends

## Ed Bellis' Analysis

It’s funny how it’s often the most inconsequential matches that prove the most exciting. This first-round tossup was more exciting than almost all of the other female bracket matches put together (which isn’t saying that much, but still). I’m pretty sure there were a bunch of lead changes (again, IIRC), with Claire leading for the morning and Kairi coming back with the afterschool vote, though it was a very neck-and-neck battle. It’s rare nowadays that a big-name match gets as much excitement as smaller ones do (this year being the exception – thanks, L-Block); four matches in and people were already eliminated from the Guru, including master predictor yoblazer.

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2502&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=4)

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## (1)Tifa Lockheart vs (8)Ivy Valentine 2006

_source: (1)Tifa Lockheart vs (8)Ivy Valentine 2006 (revid 56671)_

## Results

**Round One**

Saturday, September 16th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Limit Division
- **Match \#:** 05
- **Match Date:** Saturday, September 16th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 66,072
- **Oracle Expectations:** Tifa Lockhart - 79.60% 150 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Tifa Lockhart - 90.99% (38,804 brackets)

This match wasn't at all interesting, so I'll first discuss the one thing that there is to discuss. Look at that match pic. Did you ever think that you would see the queen of TJF get TJF'D like that? God damn, Ivy could boob-smother Tifa at like a 2:1 ratio. This seriously caused like an extra 40k votes, I bet.

But seriously, the vote totals in this match were a bit ridiculous, especially given that this was a premeditated blowout. I know it was a weekend match involving FF7 and all, but you'd think Ivy would have brought the totals down a notch.

Tifa's performance here was probably the first truly dominant showing of the contest, given that for whatever reason people felt that Samus disappointed against Nidoran F. She broke 96000 votes against a character from a game that came within hours of beating Kingdom Hearts two years ago. On a related note, Ivy's doing badly, Soul Calibur's doing badly and Nightmare not even making the field despite placing in the Rally Tournament make me think that Soul Calibur's showing against KH was a fluke. Close fourpacks generally see anomalies, and Soul Calibur would be another good example of that. There's also the fact that Soul Calibur 3 didn't make nearly the splash of the first two games.

But hey, at least it's got boobs!

It's also pretty funny to think that Tifa's future scaring of Samus *may* have been clued in before this contest was a week old. Compare Tifa's first match to Samus's and ask yourself whose was more impressive.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2503&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=5)

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## (4)The Boss vs (5)Celes Chere 2006

_source: (4)The Boss vs (5)Celes Chere 2006 (revid 56673)_

## Results

**Round One**

Sunday, September 17th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Limit Division
- **Match \#:** 06
- **Match Date:** Sunday, September 17th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 24,222
- **Oracle Expectations:** The Boss - 50.92% 81 for - 68 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** The Boss - 68.19% (29,080 brackets)

There were many a match unnecessarily debated pre-contest, and this one right here is one of my favorites of the bunch. I \*knew\* that Celes was going to lose despite all of the ridiculous hype given to this thing, and I'll try my best to repeat the reasons I gave when the "omg Celes will win :(" stress grew thicker and thicker as the match drew close. MAJOR SPOILERS FOR MGS3 AND FF6 ARE COMING, HEATHENS.

Celes is one of my favorite characters, and by far my favorite FF chick. She has a sense of rugged individuality about her that any man would admire and aspire to, and went through hell to earn it. She's got style. She's got grace. She's got class. And she's a Magitek-infused Imperial General that would whip your ass in a heartbeat if you \*\*\*\*ed with her. Let me live in my illusion that it took hundreds of soldiers to capture and jail Celes, mkay?

And even then, The Boss is just a better character and the ultimate patriot. She allows history to remember her as a defector and a traitor, as a woman who took the fall for America so that America could avoid a nuclear holocaust with the USSR. Then she dies for an America that spits on her time and time again in the process just so America could get her hands on the Philosopher's Legacy and clear its name of having fired a nuke in USSR territory in the first place. The Boss dies for a cause that no one knows exists and her own country sees her as one of history's big villains, setting the stage for perhaps the most touching moment in the HISTORY of gaming, and Celes's pathetic little cliff dive in which she fails at failing is supposed to compare? Give me a break.

Furthermore, FF6 features an ensemble cast. As a whole, the game is a masterpiece, but no one part of the whole is given overwhelming favoritism by the fanbase. Meanwhile, MGS fans love The Boss. Her character is a masterpiece and one of Kojima's finest works.

From a stats perspective, run a (lol) X-stats on 2005 Terra vs 2005 Ocelot. Supposedly overrated Terra gets creamed there, and Celes fans then turned around and assumed that The Boss vs Celes would see Celes make up a difference that large. Um... how? Why? FF6 characters have bombed time and time again in these things, yet people continue having blind faith in them anyway, assuming that SOMETHING from a game that popular has to be strong.

Which is a failure in logic, by the way. Are Diablo characters strong? Are Starcraft characters strong? Ensemble casts can be weak in these contests, even if their game is as powerful as FF6. But I digress. The match finally came, and The Boss laid down a 60-40 beating on Celes that everyone should have seen coming way in advance. There is absolutely nothing else to discuss, given all of the information above. But if you must have hard numbers, so be it. The Boss started on the 60-40 path from the opening cell and didn't stop until Celes was a bloody pulp at the end of the match. Period, end of story, see you all tomorrow.

WHY do you people feel the need to hype these types of matches? A desperate need to argue?

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## (3)Jill Valentine vs (6)Sheena Fujibayashi 2006

_source: (3)Jill Valentine vs (6)Sheena Fujibayashi 2006 (revid 56675)_

## Results

**Round One**

Monday, September 18th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Limit Division
- **Match \#:** 07
- **Match Date:** Monday, September 18th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 27,424
- **Oracle Expectations:** Jill Valentine - 64.42% 149 for - 3 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Jill Valentine - 85.80% (36,590 brackets)

This will likely be the only match we ever see Sheena in; it's kind of a shame that she had zero chance to win. It's tough to write about matches where the winner was all but given a bye, because anyone could have just looked at a few numbers in advance to see what was going to happen. However, there are two things worth noting here.

Of all the stupid picks Lopen made, Sheena winning her fourpack was by far my favorite of them. I should make a topic making fun of him one of these days =p

As for the actual match, the final numbers are a bad indicator of certain things; namely, Resident Evil being terrible with the day vote. We all knew how bad it was when Street Fighter managed to make a match out of its loss to RE in the series contest, but Jill doing similarly badly against Sheena was just ridiculous. And remember, we've seen RE vs TOS before in the form of Lloyd needing the day vote to really finish off Wesker.

Sheena's day vote against Jill was kind of like that, though the match was never really in question. After Jill got an early bracket vote surge to get above 66%, she fell below a doubling 15 minutes into the match. She flirted in the 65% range all through the night vote, then mildly collapsed during the day. Jill giving up over 3% that late in the match to what is essentially a cult character is no small feat, and such lax performance during the after-school vote wouldn't cut it for Jill were she to see a close match later in the contest.

omg foreshadowing \<\_\<

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## (2)Princess Peach vs (7)Princess Daisy 2006

_source: (2)Princess Peach vs (7)Princess Daisy 2006 (revid 56677)_

## Results

**Round One**

Tuesday, September 19th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Limit Division
- **Match \#:** 08
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, September 19th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 72,188
- **Oracle Expectations:** Princess Peach - 83.93% 153 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Princess Peach - 92.66% (39,516 brackets)

Two things killed the Jill/Peach hype. One was Jill's collapse against Sheena, and the other was Peach's killing of Daisy here in this match.

And let me tell you something. I know I promised to be nicer and as unbiased as possible during this project, but for one match, screw that. I've loved Peach ever since Mario 2 when I was a little kid, and Mario 2 was the Mario game that really got me into the series. In a way, I grew up with her almost as much as Mario himself. Then after a massive hiatus, Peach returned in all her glory in SSBM.

Don't even bother challenging me in SSBM. You and your friends probably suck at the game. I'll you in like 4 seconds. Oh and Super Princess Peach is decent; it's not deep and the way you have to use the stylus to get Peach to PMS while playing a platformer and trying to avoid things is silly, but the boss fights are actually pretty good and it's nice to see Peach have to save Mario's fat ass for once. Peach does all that work to look nice for him, wears a tight-ass dress every day that cuts off her airflow, and Mario doesn't even bother to mix in a salad or a trip to the gym every once in awhile? Come on yo, that crap ain't right.

Oh yeah, there was a match here. Well Peach owns, and Daisy is a cheap ripoff that deserves a bum like Luigi. Mario may be fat, but at least he's badass. Do you ever see Mario using vacuums as weapons? No. Because Mario is a \*\*\*\*in' beast-ass pimp, baby. What he's lacking in having to lug that spare tire around gets made up for in badass factor and strategic drug use that proves their positive medicinal use. Lugee has never done crap, except act as a palette swap turned pansy-ass. Mario fires FIRE; Lugee fires farts. Discussion over.

I mean damn, look how fat Daisy is. That match pic isn't Peach at her best (like here: [<http://www.themushroomkingdom.net/images/ssbm/dfd_peach_bowser.jpg>](http://www.themushroomkingdom.net/images/ssbm/dfd_peach_bowser.jpg)), but at least she doesn't have a donut for a face. Seriously, WTF @ Daisy. Mix in an Atkins diet sometime.

Peach began this poll by ripping her fatass clone in half, and kept at it for 24 hours. LIKE IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN. Get Daisy out of my face and out of my contests forever, plz.

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## (1)Zelda vs (8)Carmen Sandiego 2006

_source: (1)Zelda vs (8)Carmen Sandiego 2006 (revid 56679)_

## Results

**Round One**

Wednesday, September 20th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Triforce Division
- **Match \#:** 09
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, September 20th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 85,931
- **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda - 82.75% 151 for - 1 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zelda - 98.17% (41,866 brackets)

Carmen Sandiego was one of the rare mass-rallied characters that made the field, though it may have actually been better for her to stay on the sidelines. Zelda's throttling of Carmen in this here match was arguably the most dominant performance of the entire contest. Zelda actually started this match at a "mere" ~82%, but exploded during the day vote for the 86% win shown above. I'm also 99% sure that Zelda was the only character to break 100,000 votes individually all through this contest, but correct me if I'm wrong.

It's also pretty funny how Zelda's performance here made her look like an actual threat to Samus in every regard, which started the whole upset bandwagon. Matches like this give credence to the theory that a supporting character can go berserk if their main isn't in the contest bracket. Or something. That doesn't explain Mario's steroids last year.

Well anyway, not much to say. Zelda made a killing here, and her run of dominance was one of gold through the entire contest until very late.

## Match Trends

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## (4)Terra Branford vs (5)Sarah Kerrigan 2006

_source: (4)Terra Branford vs (5)Sarah Kerrigan 2006 (revid 56681)_

## Results

**Round One**

Thursday, September 21st, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Triforce Division
- **Match \#:** 10
- **Match Date:** Thursday, September 21st, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 17,219
- **Oracle Expectations:** Terra Branford - 56.82% 138 for - 12 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Terra Branford - 56.52% (24,104 brackets)

Before getting into the match, it's worth noting that this is the first time since 2002 where Board 8's childish whining actually convinced Ceej to change a match pic (Anyone from 2002 remember the Mega Man/Ms Pac Man debacle?). Naturally, Kerrigan whiners blamed the picture 100% for why she was about to lose. Ceej finally made a topic, accepted a wonderful photoshop by MYC and changed the pic before taking a funny little jab or two at how pathetic this board can get sometimes. Though if pathetic is defined as whining about nothing and being generally petty, this place might be one of the worst on the internet.

It was also funny as hell when the match pic got changed, only to see Kerrigan get her ass handed to her anyway. Matches like this are what the X-Stats are actually good for; taking a match that may be up for debate normally but making an easy conclusion based upon how far apart they are in the stats. Terra was projected to score almost 60% on Kerrigan in 2005, and she came pretty damn close in a match that was not once in doubt. Sure there were the usual amount of people who expected Blizzard rallying to make a difference for one of its characters (which I never understood, because of the ensemble cast and PC characters always being weak issues), but they convinced almost no one that Kerrigan was going to be anything this year.

Also, this match was a nice example of how for the most part, match pics \*might\* not matter for more than 1-2% in a match, save for the obvious exceptions like Snake and CT sprites. Kerrigan looked as good as she possible could, but only did something like 1.5% better than she was supposed to. I think it's safe to give up on the idea of Starcraft or any other PC characters ever doing much in these contests. Though with all of this said, Terra's win was about as ho-hum as it gets. The match didn't even break 100,000 votes, and she was actually over 60% at one point before losing 2% during the day. It was kind of clear that Zelda would kill her after seeing this.

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## (3)KOS-MOS vs (6)Amy Rose 2006

_source: (3)KOS-MOS vs (6)Amy Rose 2006 (revid 56683)_

## Results

**Round One**

Friday, September 22nd, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Triforce Division
- **Match \#:** 11
- **Match Date:** Friday, September 22nd, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 31,627
- **Oracle Expectations:** KOS-MOS - 61.89% 145 for - 4 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** KOS-MOS - 71.25% (30,385 brackets)

There was mild debate surrounding this match, though I don't really get why. Even most Sonic fans despise Amy Rose, and for good reason. She's an annoying tokenism character. Also for what it's worth, Xenosaga 3 did come out between 2005 and 2006, which would possibly give KOS-MOS the slight boost she would need to win a boring match between two characters that few care about.

KOS-MOS coming out and winning this thing as easily as she did kind of surprised me, but then I remembered Xenosaga 3 and that even most Sonic fans hate Amy Rose =p. When you get a match between two characters that so few people care about, it doesn't take much to see a blowout happen. Though for what it's worth, the famed Sonic day vote turned this match from a 70-30 thumping into KOS-MOS not even pulling off the doubling. It didn't really matter here, but it would come into play big time later on in this contest.

That's, um... all I really have to say about this one. Sorry :(

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## (2)Aeris Gainsborough vs (7)Marle 2006

_source: (2)Aeris Gainsborough vs (7)Marle 2006 (revid 82863)_

## Results

**Round One**

Saturday, September 23rd, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Triforce Division
- **Match \#:** 12
- **Match Date:** Saturday, September 23rd, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 45,526
- **Oracle Expectations:** Aeris Gainsborough - 74.78% 149 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Aeris Gainsborough - 87.74% (37,418 brackets)

I would have enjoyed this match a lot more if I didn't utterly despise both characters, but moving on.

I told JP for a good two years that Aeris would get into a contest again if he'd just shut up about her. When he finally decided to "leave" Board 8 (which he never actually did; he was here reading topics but not responding the entire time), she made it back in. Surprise surprise. Granted Aeris was a mortal lock to make it in under this male-female format (though it was odd not seeing her as an 11 seed having to score two "upsets" in a row to make it into the third round again), but that's beside the point.

This match had the makings of being an SFF beating for the ages, but then I remembered that Chrono Trigger broke 40% on FF7 in the games contest. If there were any SFF in Aeris/Marle it would likely be minimal at best. And it was. Aeris did well in breaking 80,000 votes, but these percentages don't really line up with the historic SFF killings of the past. 70-30 is more what you'd expect from the natural strength of these two characters.

One thing that caught my eye however is that Marle didn't completely collapse during the infamous "lol hi I'm the CT day vote and I suck" part of the match. Aeris only gained like 2% during the day, and Marle took almost a full percent of that back by the end of the match. If Aeris couldn't make a killing during the day vote against a CT character, then what chance in hell did she have of beating Zelda in the division finals? Because really, Zelda/Aeris was the only debatable part of this division going in... until Aeris failed to go nuts during the day vote against Marle of all people. KOS-MOS will get the credit for exposing Aeris, but she doesn't deserve all of it.

## Match Trends

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## (1)Yuna vs (8)Roll 2006

_source: (1)Yuna vs (8)Roll 2006 (revid 56687)_

## Results

**Round One**

Sunday, September 24th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Aeon Division
- **Match \#:** 13
- **Match Date:** Sunday, September 24th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 72,215
- **Oracle Expectations:** Yuna - 74.69% 147 for - 1 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Yuna - 90.68% (38,671 brackets)

As bad as most people considered the female half, the Aeon Division was considered far and away the worst of the four on this side of the bracket. Yuna being a 1 seed, Lara being a 2 and various levels of rat being all below them in this division literally slowed the board down to a halt. This place was dead during most female match of the first round, but it was flat out rancid during the matches in this division.

Which was kind of an unfair thing to say, because the Aeon Division is a badass name, plus the competitors did a fair job of impressing. Look at Yuna here. Granted Roll serves a miniscule roll (lolcwutid-\*gets shot\*) in the Mega Man series as a lolibait side character that no one cares about, but not anyone can come close to breaking 100,000 votes in a match by themselves. A lot of people wrote off Yuna's performance here as Roll being low-end crap fodder, mainly due to a psychological barrier people seem to have against FFX. Only a few days after Rikku scored the biggest blowout ever recorded by an FFX entrant, Yuna comes out and nearly breaks 80%. She would have broken 80 outright had she had a little more oomph behind her during the after-school vote.

Regardless of how weak you felt Roll was, Yuna impressed big-time here. Quietest dominant blowout ever. And.... seriously, *Roll*? My god, there had to have been someone better out there.

## Match Trends

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## (4)Joanna Dark vs (5)Cortana 2006

_source: (4)Joanna Dark vs (5)Cortana 2006 (revid 64112)_

## Results

**Round One**

Monday, September 25th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Aeon Division
- **Match \#:** 14
- **Match Date:** Monday, September 25th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 20,544
- **Oracle Expectations:** Joanna Dark - 57.24% 136 for - 14 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Joanna Dark - 65.77% (28,048 brackets)

For a minute (literally), I thought this match would be a good one. I had Cortana in my bracket in the very beginning of all this, but changed it later.

And then I remembered a few things, most importantly being that Cortana is to Halo what Navi was to OOT -- a character that almost no one cares about slapped into a good game, meaning that not all things Halo would mean contest strength. Assuming you feel Halo has contest strength anymore, but more on that later in the round.

Meanwhile, Joanna Dark might not be beast-level popular, but she at least has *some* things going for her, most notably the fact that she has [more than 4 fans](http://the-elite.net). Perfect Dark was a million seller on a Nintendo system, and Perfect Dark Zero being on the Xbox 360 was the perfect factor to help stem whatever Halo carryover that Cortana may have had going for her coming into the match.

The end result was Jo scoring a 60-40 beating that was never in question, with Cortana not doing a damn thing in the match until it was well over half over and already decided. She might have won an update or two late in this match, but it's really not worth looking up. The only people who felt Cortana was going to do anything were a few Halo fans that fell into the trap of overestimating the game's popularity on this site. Happens every contest, and it'll happen again due to how overseeded Halo entrants always are.

## Match Trends

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---

## (3)Chun Li vs (6)Kasumi 2006

_source: (3)Chun Li vs (6)Kasumi 2006 (revid 56691)_

## Results

**Round One**

Tuesday, September 26th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Aeon Division
- **Match \#:** 15
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, September 26th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 39,095
- **Oracle Expectations:** Chun Li - 64.85% 147 for - 1 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Chun Li - 73.89% (31,511 brackets)

There isn't a whole lot to say about this match here. Everyone knew that Chun-Li would win easily (save a couple of DOA fanboys, though this match brought me to the sad reality that these people actually exist), and potential fighting game SFF would completely wipe out whatever Kasumi had going for her going into this. Until proven otherwise, I'll always believe that Street Fighter is this site's favorite fighting series (well, other than Super Smash Bros).

It's actually worth noting that 2002 Kasumi (lol 2002 stats) gets something like 46% on 2005 Chun-Li, with Chun-Li being overrated due to Bowser. Maybe. So the Kasumi fans weren't totally nuts, plus there was DOA4 being on the 360. But even then, Chun-Li losing this seemed impossible, and she proved that it was all of two seconds into the match. Chun just took off and never looked back, though she did lose something like 3% during the horrid SF day vote.

Now feels like as good time as any to point out that crap like the DOA "She Kicks High" commercial is the reason gamers aren't socially accepted in many circles. And if you don't agree, you're part of the problem. Glorifying the gamer stereotype of being so desperate that we'd whack it to pixels is pathetic. Show some pride.

## Match Trends

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## (2)Lara Croft vs (7)Alyx Vance 2006

_source: (2)Lara Croft vs (7)Alyx Vance 2006 (revid 56693)_

## Results

**Round One**

Wednesday, September 27th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Aeon Division
- **Match \#:** 16
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, September 27th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 53,614
- **Oracle Expectations:** Lara Croft - 67.74% 147 for - 2 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Lara Croft - 92.95% (39,639 brackets)

It was easy to get excited over this match, especially if you were a Lara Croft fan. Sure Lara got off to a ridiculous start against a no-name character, but more importantly this was the final match of the first round in the female bracket. Woohoo!

But seriously, Lara's dominance here was deceptive as anything. Yes Lara started strong and kept it going through most of the match, but look at her opponent. Who outside the HL2 fanbase even knew who Alyx was before this contest? Gordon Freeman's contest history is a good indicator of how much people really care about Half-Life characters. And furthermore, look at these vote totals. They're flat-out pathetic, which takes some credibility away from how 'well' Lara did here.

This match more than anything was proof that most characters can look good if they're up against someone weak enough. This wasn't some grand return to glory for Lara in these contests, even though I'm sure her X-Stat value will fool a few people next year. You probably could have stuck CATS in this match and saw him break 60%.

And with that, on to the males! Finally.

## Match Trends

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## (1)Solid Snake vs (8)Soma Cruz 2006

_source: (1)Solid Snake vs (8)Soma Cruz 2006 (revid 56695)_

## Results

**Round One**

Thursday, September 28th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Patriot Division
- **Match \#:** 17
- **Match Date:** Thursday, September 28th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 70,210
- **Oracle Expectations:** Solid Snake - 79.83% 135 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Solid Snake - 96.56% (41,179 brackets)

The biggest reason why everyone hated the male/female idea were the massive amount of snubs. Knuckles, Magus, Ness, Kefka, DK, Nightmare, Raiden, Fox, and probably a ton of other characters I'm forgetting were all booted in favor of seeing characters like Jade, Alyx Vance, Daisy and Nidoran F. I'm all for the spring being a quirky little twist, but call me a traditionalist for the summer contests. Gogogo 64 characters and such. And I get that this contest ended up being a good one, but think back to how this thing was before Snake/Mega Man before anointing and such. But I'm getting way ahead of myself.

Before nearly every contest, we see a poll that looks like this: [<http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2497>](http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2497)

And it's funny as hell when those polls pan out, but more on that when it's appropriate. At the time Snake/Soma took place, Snake was still widely believed by many to be the weak link of the Noble Nine. He's had dominant performances in the past, but he's never been able to put them together late in a contest. This made it difficult to take Snake's dominant match against Soma very seriously, because this has always been his MO in the past; he goes beast early, gets a good win in the second round, looks like crap in the sprite round and then loses before he hits the Final Four. This changed a bit last year due to Snake's division being a joke and Bowser not keeping up in the sprite round, but Snake still couldn't get that NN win.

However, going nuts on Soma Cruz is a bit more impressive than wasting Tanner or Manny Calavera; people actually know who Soma Cruz is. His Castlevania series did beat Halo to a pulp all of a month or so before this contest even began. Granted Soma only stars in two handheld titles, but still. Castlevania is Castlevania, and it's tough to imagine Soma being on even ground with the star of Grim Fandango.

Grim what? Exactly. Maaaaaybe Snake showed that he meant business from day one, though to be fair it was still hard to take him too seriously after one match.

## Match Trends

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## (4)Squall Leonhart vs (5)Tidus 2006

_source: (4)Squall Leonhart vs (5)Tidus 2006 (revid 56697)_

## Results

**Round One**

Friday, September 29th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Patriot Division
- **Match \#:** 18
- **Match Date:** Friday, September 29th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 50,198
- **Oracle Expectations:** Squall Leonhart - 60.39% 133 for - 2 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Squall Leonhart - 68.57% (29,242 brackets)

Hot damn, Squall looks hot as hell in that pic. And hot damn, I forgot to mention how badass the name "Patriot Division" is. Good stuff.

Anyway, this match would have been a good one to see in 2004 before Mega Man punked Tidus and essentially rendered 2003 Tidus an overrated pile from there on out. Once upon a time, people actually believed that Tidus versus Squall would have been a good match with the site's love of FFX pushing Tidus over the top. I may have actually been one of these people. I honestly don't remember, because it's been while since anyone has considered Tidus strong. Looking back, his only good match was against Ganondorf in 2003. Beating Shadow in 2004 seemed nice, but Shadow's true colors have since shown as well.

On top of Mega Man giving Tidus the business, let's not forget how badly Kirby made this guy look in 2005. Tidus barely did better than Ramza. I love FFT and all, but come on. Ramza?

People could have simply looked at the 2005 stats to see how this was going, but that calculation only yields a 57.86% win for Squall. After all the crap that Squall has gotten over the years, including an SFF beating from hell at the hands of Cloud, it's almost like Squall was waiting for the chance to finally do this to someone else. And I don't care what anyone says; Squall owns, and even if you dislike FF8 you have to admit that he redeems himself like no one else ever has in the Kingdom Hearts series.

Come match time, this turned into a funny SFF beating through and through, and you have to think that Tidus is done and that his 2003 stats can be thrown out. Tidus will never do anything in these contests again, but Squall at least has potential to improve if he keeps getting into KH games. There was even talk of a Squall \> Snake upset after this here match, which was somewhat viable based on past stats.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2516&num=2)
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---

## (3)Riku vs (6)Yoshi 2006

_source: (3)Riku vs (6)Yoshi 2006 (revid 56699)_

## Results

**Round One**

Saturday, September 30th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Patriot Division
- **Match \#:** 19
- **Match Date:** Saturday, September 30th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 13,069
- **Oracle Expectations:** Yoshi - 58.42% 127 for - 10 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Yoshi - 58.10% (24,777 brackets)

This was an interesting little match. Most people in the know figured Yoshi for an easy win, while a lot of casuals took the pick-all-higher-seeds route. The result was a seeding upset and a low prediction percentage. There was some grounds for Riku possibly pulling off the upset, but it revolved around ridiculous KH2 boosts and Yoshi's stat values (all behind SFF) being near-100% accurate.

Yoshi began this match on fire, but the rest of the poll was to watch how low he could go. Yoshi began this thing over 70%, then he just bombed down in percentage from there on in. Yoshi was never in danger of losing, but this was one of those moral-victories to-the-loser deals. Riku managed to snag an update or two here and there, and the beast KH day vote was on full display yet again.

This left us with one of two conclusions upcoming in round two. Yoshi/Dante was on the horizon, and Yoshi backers argued that he was behind SFF in the stats in every contest, therefore his true value would come through for the win. For this to come through after Riku's performance, it would mean that Kingdom Hearts 2 kicked this contest's ass. The other ending to that whole debate would simply be Yoshi not coming through, and it didn't look too good after Yoshi's first match.

Oh and watch us get Riku/Bowser in the first round next year. It's not a character battle without Riku getting fed to some green animal in the first round :(

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2517&num=2)
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## (2)Dante vs (7)Ryu Hayabusa 2006

_source: (2)Dante vs (7)Ryu Hayabusa 2006 (revid 56701)_

## Results

**Round One**

Sunday, October 1st, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Patriot Division
- **Match \#:** 20
- **Match Date:** Sunday, October 1st, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 36,318
- **Oracle Expectations:** Dante - 64.55% 136 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Dante - 78.84% (33,622 brackets)

Can't get more badass than that pic, can't get more boring than this match. According to 2005 stats, Dante was supposed to beat Ryu with 63.72% of the vote. As you can see, he did 1.5% better. He could have finished with a higher percentage, but he lost some percentage in the second half of the match for whatever reason.

Now while this match could easily be used to ring Yoshi's death bell in the second round, that assumption means a constant Riku. Constant Riku was doubtful, and the 1.5% overperformance can easily be chalked up to bracket voting or random variation. That said, the Yoshi \> Dante upset wasn't looking too good after this match. Dante was clearly constant, while Yoshi was a wild card going in, relying on a NintendoFAQs factor to win. It's always nice having debated matches in which both characters have a good chance.

Dunno what else there really is to say about Dante's win here, really.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2518&num=2)
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---

## (1)Sora vs (8)Tingle 2006

_source: (1)Sora vs (8)Tingle 2006 (revid 56703)_

## Results

**Round One**

Monday, October 2nd, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Destiny Division
- **Match \#:** 21
- **Match Date:** Monday, October 2nd, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 63,392
- **Oracle Expectations:** Sora - 78.41% 135 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Sora - 92.70% (39,533 brackets)

Sora's first match was an odd one. After Kairi and Riku beasted the hell out of their opponents with the KH day vote, Sora was set to take on a universally hated POS in Tingle. But even then, Tingle is from Zelda. Pretty funny backdrop, really. KH day vote versus universal hate versus everyone loving the Zelda series.

The end result? A 75-25 match for an entire 24 hours. How boring is that? No real vote trends, so no real conclusions to make. Just an easy win for Sora in a predictable path.

\[Insert rage about Tingle getting in above all the snubs\]

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2519&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=21)

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---

## (4)Phoenix Wright vs (5)Gordon Freeman 2006

_source: (4)Phoenix Wright vs (5)Gordon Freeman 2006 (revid 80286)_

## Results

**Round One**

Tuesday, October 3rd, 2006

- **Division:** Destiny Division
- **Match \#:** 22
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, October 3rd, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 18,120
- **Oracle Expectations:** Gordon Freeman - 57.15% 105 for - 32 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Gordon Freeman - 56.79% (24,219 brackets)

## Ulti's Analysis

Let me be a bit serious before getting into the match. The hype for this thing was 100% useless. There was no way in hell Phoenix was going to win this, and I say that as one of his biggest fans. The game sold like ass, and all of the Phoenix hype assumed that Half-Life 2 never happened. What Gordon did against Leon Kennedy last year was no fluke. It's almost like Phoenix \> Gordon was as big a fad as Phoenix himself, though the game being awesome warrants fad power.

Anyway, yeah... hype. Lots of it. For no real reason other than wanting to see GFNW continue on, and a loss to Phoenix Wright would have ended up the most embarrassing of them all. But deep down, I think most people realized that Gordon was going to win. I'm convinced the hype for this was more fad than anything else.

Phoenix scored the board vote as one would expect, jumping out to a lead of over 100 in the first 5 minutes. But the board vote died after that, as did Phoenix's chances of pulling out the funniest win of all time. Gordon Freeman got on track at the ten minute mark, and never looked back en route to the first win he's ever had. Dunno if it'll be his last, but his first certainly wasn't as exciting as it could have been. This tends to happen when you beat one of the favored characters of Board 8, LUE and LL.

Fitting division name, eh? We've been living in the negaverse ever since. Technically speaking, nothing that has happened since this match has occurred within the bounds of reality.

## Stats and Analysis

When the bracket of the Summer 2006 Contest was shown, it seemed that Gordon Freeman would lose his match as usual. The really short sales of Phoenix Wright's game wouldn't break the tradition... especially with the Objection! website.

Phoenix was winning in the first updates, but then... Gordon started to rise, and build an advantage. [60, 155, 500, 1000, 3000, 8000](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2520)...

In the end, Gordon won. Phoenix and GFNW fans whined, and the universe didn't implode. People asked for the heads of Amazing Telephone, creator of GFNW, ZenOfThunder, whose PW rallying led to his high seed and defeat, and the anonymous who thought about the universe's end.

And CATS became GameFAQs' biggest loser.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2520&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=22)

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---

## (3)Kratos vs (6)Ryu 2006

_source: (3)Kratos vs (6)Ryu 2006 (revid 56707)_

## Results

**Round One**

Wednesday, October 4th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Destiny Division
- **Match \#:** 23
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, October 4th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 16,485
- **Oracle Expectations:** Ryu - 61.12% 132 for - 3 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Ryu - 49.01% (20,901 brackets)

How odd that a match like Kratos/Ryu ended up being the first with a prediction percentage of less than 50. We like to bash the stats a lot, but matches like this where a ton of people may have picked the obvious loser without stats existing are a good example of what they're good for. Kratos being the bracket favorite against a staple like Ryu is proof that he has the casuals in his hip pocket.

This match was never in doubt, but take a look at the beast day vote that Kratos has. At one point, Ryu was at 62% in the poll. He dropped 5% once the day vote got going, and Kratos managed to win several updates throughout the match. If Kratos is ever put into a winnable situation, we might see a nice comeback from him. It's worth noting however that Kratos's two matches in which he killed the day vote were against characters that tend to suck with it. Alucard is just terrible during the day, and anything Street Fighter isn't all that much better off.

For the statheads, Kratos was only expected to get 34.02% here, but his number is warped due to that fluke Snake \> Sora match last year. We need to see something like Kratos against Master Chief just to test out whether or not this match makes him a fluke.

On a side note, the SF3 Ryu sprite in M.U.G.E.N. is just unfair. I suck at fighting games and still never lose with him because of all the invincibility frames he has during a midair Tatsumaki Senpuukyaku or whatever the hell it's called.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2521&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=23)

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---

## (2)Mega Man vs (7)Axel 2006

_source: (2)Mega Man vs (7)Axel 2006 (revid 56709)_

## Results

**Round One**

Thursday, October 5th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Destiny Division
- **Match \#:** 24
- **Match Date:** Thursday, October 5th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 46,619
- **Oracle Expectations:** Mega Man - 78.04% 136 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Mega Man - 90.46% (38,578 brackets)

How many matches do you see between two characters that use metal blades for a weapon?

Pay close attention to the night vote of this poll, because it was the one and only time all contest in which Mega Man looked like the Mega Man of old. He took off for 75% of the vote early, and all of the Snake \> Mega Man hype that began after the Soma Cruz beating seemed to be useless. But once the morning vote hit, Mega Man sort of... mildly collapsed.

Mega lost a good 2% during the morning hours, then school hit and he stabilized. After school, Axel made another good percentage recovery and managed to get Mega under 70% with two hours left in the poll. Ultimately, Mega failed to break 70% altogether.

Given the events of the contest to this point, it was easy to just blame this on Kingdom Hearts 2 and think nothing of it. Axel does kick all kinds of ass and such. But regardless of Axel's potential strength, it was a sign of things to come for the blue bomber. To think, four years ago Mega Man was a few hours away from beating Sephiroth.

GOT IT MEMORIZED?

(Had to do it at least once.)

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2522&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=24)

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---

## (1)Sonic the Hedgehog vs (8)CATS 2006

_source: (1)Sonic the Hedgehog vs (8)CATS 2006 (revid 56711)_

## Results

**Round One**

Friday, October 6th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Blast Division
- **Match \#:** 25
- **Match Date:** Friday, October 6th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 66,832
- **Oracle Expectations:** Sonic - 79.81% 132 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Sonic - 96.42% (41,119 brackets)

This match was the annual "feed CATS to a contender" duel, with Sonic taking in the benefits. However instead of this looking like Ansem vs CATS in which CATS actually did something early, it looked more like Cloud vs CATS. CATS took the lead for a few seconds, then got steamrolled through the rest of the match.

What this match meant depended on whether or not you believe the picture of CATS mattered. It's widely believed that Eggplant CATS and Face CATS have two different strengths, but what we saw here was a bit of a hybrid of the two.

That said:

2005 Sonic vs 2005 (Face) CATS: 75.01% for Sonic

2005 Sonic vs 2004 (Eggplant) CATS: 83.05% for Sonic

Where Sonic ended up seems to look like the percentage he was "supposed" to get on a hybrid of the two pics, but there really weren't any conclusions that could be drawn from this.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2523&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=25)

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## (4)Ganondorf vs (5)Vincent Valentine 2006

_source: (4)Ganondorf vs (5)Vincent Valentine 2006 (revid 88425)_

## Results

**Round One**

Saturday, October 7th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Blast Division
- **Match \#:** 26
- **Match Date:** Saturday, October 7th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 6,636
- **Oracle Expectations:** Vincent - 49.32% 64 for - 67 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Vincent - 39.40% (16,803 brackets)

This was a WIDELY debated first round match, and the fact that this thing meant as many points as Ada vs Jade should be criminal -- HM's stupid account bet with Sir Chris be damned.

The basic idea was Ganondorf's pedigree against Vincent's overwhelming intangibles. The two are close in the stats and Vincent had a ton going for him going into the match, but 40% on Sephiroth and being from the Zelda series is difficult to overlook. As was Link's recent dominance of Cloud, paired with Zelda being the big favorite against Aeris. Picking Vincent over Ganon here was a major going against the grain.

Though with all that said, perfect time to repaste this old analysis of mine:

> From UltimaterializerX Posted 9/17/2006 3:28:16 AM \#049
>
> I was bored:
>
> Auron scored 45.95 on Ganondorf. Dante scored 45.99% on Vincent.
>
> 33.02% ; that's Auron's BL value if you take his 2005 match with Ganondorf and plug him into the Villain Contest. Dante's BL value from last summer is 32.73%.
>
> (32.73 / 33.02) \* 50 = 49.56% is what Dante supposedly scores on Auron, but these two are only even if you assume the villain's contest is accurate.
>
> Basically, Ganondorf being favored against Vincent is based off of warped stats from when everyone thought Magus 2003 was legit, and a villain's contest in which Sephiroth was anti-voted to hell and back in the last two rounds. Is Ganon really that close to Mario of his own accord?
>
> If Ganon is overrated at ALL by our stats (and he is; none of the high readings we have on him are valid), Vincent might win that match in an easier fashion that people expect. Vincent might be overrated a bit due to FF7 \> CT SFF, but if he pulled 44.62% on Crono due to Advent Children then his value is kind of accurate by accident. And he's had his own game since last year. And he might even see some KH2F go his way.
>
> Barring NintendoFAQs showing its muscle again (a real possibility, of course), I really think Vincent might be due to surprise some people in a couple of weeks.

Remember the Ganon/Tidus/Magus trio of 2003? Magus and Tidus have since bombed, and Ganon's inevitable coming down to earth was only being delayed because we're on ZeldaFAQs. What Vincent did in 2005 paired with everything he's had going for him since, paired with Ganon's being overrated made Vincent the favorite in my eyes. Not to mention the whole FF7 thing. Barring massive ZeldaFAQs slash bracket voting favoritism, I really felt like Vincent could win this match easily.

Which is a theory that got a huge monkey wrench thrown into it early on in the match, because Ganon jumped out to a 130 vote lead within ten minutes. Vincent quickly recovered however, and the match was even ten minutes later. The two went back and forth like this in near dead-even fashion for quite awhile, but Vincent began to make his move once the night vote began to settle in. In between 1:30 and 2, Vincent increased his lead from 15 to 114.

Ganon was never in the match again. Vincent went on to build a sizeable lead for himself through the night, and the best Ganon was able to do during the famous Zelda day vote was stall Vincent's lead increase every so often. In the end, the only thing that put this match into any question early was an early Ganondorf push from bracket voting (low prediction percentage as evidence) and Zelda fans that stayed up late. This phenomenon of Nintendo doing drastically better in the first hour or so compared to the rest of the night would be dubbed the Nintendo Power Hour by transience later on in the contest.

On top of Ganondorf losing in the first round for I believe the first time ever, the massive Vincent \> Sonic bandwagon began not one second afterwards. This board is pretty sad in how desperate it is to see the Noble Nine break; Ganon was high in the stats based on warped circumstance, so naturally the statheads have to hype Vincent as being bigger than said warped stats in an effort to validate faulty logic. Vincent is good, but he's not that good. Yet. He does have the potential if he makes it into a future Kingdom Hearts title, though.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2524&num=2)
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## (3)Kirby vs (6)Prince of Persia 2006

_source: (3)Kirby vs (6)Prince of Persia 2006 (revid 56715)_

## Results

**Round One**

Sunday, October 8th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Blast Division
- **Match \#:** 27
- **Match Date:** Sunday, October 8th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 28,545
- **Oracle Expectations:** Kirby - 66.92% 131 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Kirby - 72.27% (30,820 brackets)

Prince looks like Aragorn from LOTR in that picture. Sexy stuff \<\_\<

Anyway, a lot of things went down in the Blast Division this contest. One of the most overlooked of them was how well Prince performed in this match. Pre-contest, it was blasphemy in some circles to assume that Prince could be in the same conversation as GoW Kratos. Kirby is projected to get 70% on Kratos based off 2005 stats, but those stats are warped in a lot of areas. After Prince almost broke 40% on Kirby, it's accurate to call Prince a decent midcarder, as well as calling into question the entire Kirby/Bowser/Snake thing in 2005.

The disappointing thing for Kirby is that he began the match near 70%, then dived down in percentage until the end. Regardless of what you felt Prince's strength was, those who picked Kirby to lose in the next round looked in the clear at this point. Prince's day vote recovery was very... Kratos-like, come to think of it \<\_\<

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2525&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=27)

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---

## (2)Luigi vs (7)Zero 2006

_source: (2)Luigi vs (7)Zero 2006 (revid 56717)_

## Results

**Round One**

Monday, October 9th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Blast Division
- **Match \#:** 28
- **Match Date:** Monday, October 9th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 9,644
- **Oracle Expectations:** Luigi - 48.65% 41 for - 89 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Luigi - 71.84% (30,637 brackets)

This match was funny in that it was a great clash between casual bracketmakers and those "in the know". Most casuals picked Luigi without thinking twice, and as you can see there were more casuals than you might have expected. Most people with stat knowledge picked Zero without thinking twice, and the big debate with Zero was whether or not Kirby, not Luigi, would beat him before Sonic could. Most objections on Board 8 were met with either stats (Zero has always performed better than Luigi in them) or a history lesson, because Luigi has never really won a debated match. Even most of the Luigi backers on Board 8 knew this, and were betting on fanboy love or Zero being a fraud in the stats.

And then the match began, with "O\_\_O WTF??" being the response of choice. Not only was Luigi in the match, but he was laying the beatdown into Zero en route to an absolute destruction of him. Luigi was on the ass end of everything other than seeding and match picture going into this match, yet Zero looked like the eternal underdog once the smoke cleared. It was Luigi's first win in a tough match, and the prediction percentage being revealed after the match added insult to injury. All of the people with knowledge of all those stats kind of got, um... punked.

RPGuy (Loogie fanboy to the max) has the best theory of why it went down this way. Paraphrased, characters like Zero and Ryu and Dante do very well for themselves, but generally never had to face Squintendo characters in order to get the high values that we've all slapped on them. Non-Squintendo characters seem to have two different strengths, based on whether or not they're facing the two big companies.

Eh, makes as much sense as anything else. Luigi's "upset" put him in prime position to make the Sweet 16 for the first time ever.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2526&num=2)
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## (1)Crono vs (8)Captain Falcon 2006

_source: (1)Crono vs (8)Captain Falcon 2006 (revid 56719)_

## Results

**Round One**

Tuesday, October 10th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Time Division
- **Match \#:** 29
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, October 10th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 54,784
- **Oracle Expectations:** Crono - 75.45% 128 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Crono - 83.15% (35,460 brackets)

The final division of this contest to get its first round out of the way was Crono's Time Division. Pretty bad division name, but it doesn't take away from Crono finally getting the 1 seed that had eluded him to this point.

His debut as a 1 wasn't too bad, either. Captain Falcon is one of the best examples we have of the SSBM factor. It's a safe bet that of Falcon's 29306 votes, almost all of them were from people who would vote anything Smash over anything else. Honestly, have more than 20 people played an F-Zero title? The end result was predictable: Crono blowout.

With one small footnote. Crono threatened 80% at one point, and Falcon brought him down to 74. Crono being ass during the day was bound to bite him eventually.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2527&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=29)

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---

## (4)Bowser vs (5)Leon Kennedy 2006

_source: (4)Bowser vs (5)Leon Kennedy 2006 (revid 56721)_

## Results

**Round One**

Wednesday, October 11th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Time Division
- **Match \#:** 30
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, October 11th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 13,153
- **Oracle Expectations:** Bowser - 63.44% 128 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Bowser - 71.11% (30,326 brackets)

Heeeeeey, it's another chance to tell people how great a game RE4 is! You're not a gamer unless you've played it. Fact and such. Stop whatever you're doing and play from start to finish. Seriously.

Anyway, Bowser vs Leon was a gimme match with a twist. Leon was bound to do well given the PS2 version of RE4. And do well he did. Leon was only expected to get 37.63% here. After the initial bracket votes did little to help Bowser dominate, Leon scored what you see above. The match was rather boring; no real percentage swings, nothing to really discuss save for how well he ended up doing.

However, PS2 RE4 release aside, this match paired with Kirby disappointing against Prince raised serious issues about how legitimate Bowser and Kirby really were in 2005. Yes we're on NintendoFAQs and such, but both characters setting themselves up for disappointment a year later couldn't have been coincidence. As for Leon, is he slated to be in RE5? The guy has some major potential if Capcom decides to stick with him.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2528&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=30)

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---

## (3)Auron vs (6)Alucard 2006

_source: (3)Auron vs (6)Alucard 2006 (revid 56723)_

## Results

**Round One**

Thursday, October 12th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Time Division
- **Match \#:** 31
- **Match Date:** Thursday, October 12th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 33,451
- **Oracle Expectations:** Auron - 59.69% 127 for - 2 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Auron - 70.11% (29,899 brackets)

One of the least-discussed contest happenings is the gradual decline of Alucard. As great as he was pulling all those upsets in the first two contests, he's really done nothing since. He has one win in three years, against GoW Kratos -- and it's tough to even imagine him pulling off that win again, for some reason. Alucard has kind of degenerated into fodder for high-end midcarders, which sucks. But we all love Alucard, so we'll never concede the current Alucard likely being the true colors all along.

2005 stats have Alucard scoring 37.14% in this match. Actual results seem good enough, but then you remember that Alucard is stuck behind that whacked out Snake/Sora match from 2005 and wonder WTF is up with him. No one views Snake/Sora as being legit, yet Alucard's warped number is what we saw in the match against Auron. Either Snake/Sora was legit, or Alucard is going downhill in a hurry. Poor guy. It was bound to happen eventually though, given that SOTN is getting old in a hurry regardless of how good it is.

Or we could just slap KH2F on this match and move on. Auron's intro in that game is really one of the most badass things I've ever seen.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2529&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=31)

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---

## (2)Master Chief vs (7)Sub-Zero 2006

_source: (2)Master Chief vs (7)Sub-Zero 2006 (revid 56725)_

## Results

**Round One**

Friday, October 13th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Time Division
- **Match \#:** 32
- **Match Date:** Friday, October 13th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 2,426
- **Oracle Expectations:** Sub-Zero - 41.87% 6 for - 121 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Sub-Zero - 20.28% (8,649 brackets)

GFNW, meet Halo Never Wins (HNW). HNW, meet GFNW. You two should get along well together. Oh? Gordon Freeman has a more recent victory in contests than Halo does? You can't be serious.

If Halo gets upset and no one cares, is it really an upset? I can't name more than two people that picked Sub-Zero to win this match out of anything more than fanboyism. The prediction percentage for this match is the lowest first round prediction percentage *in the history of these contests*. And yet... there was virtually no outcry. People welcomed this match on sheer badass factor (really, Sub-Zero has long been overdue to make noise in one of these things) paired with the fact that no one outside of some elitist snobs cares about Halo. It's a tailor-made FPS for people that otherwise suck at FPS games, with noisy-ass fans who think it's the second coming of Jesus himself. "Dual wielding and awesome graphiX!1 Man this has never been done1!1". These people seriously make me never discuss being a fan of the series, because being associated with them isn't exactly one of my goals in life.

There are some long-standing reasons why people don't care about Halo getting bit by upsets, not the least of which are the fact that people never learn their lesson when it comes to Halo. If you make a table of lowest first round prediction percentages, Halo or Master Chief losing in the first round takes up three of the four top spots. (Cue RPGuy throwing me a bone here \<\_\<)

As for how it happened, Master Chief managed a whopping 34 vote lead during the bracket vote surge. Sub-Zero tore into him after that and just beat the piss out of the Chief all through the night vote, all through the morning vote, and all through the in-school vote. Subby's lead peaked at near 4300 votes at one point.

Now, remember Castlevania vs Halo in the series contest and how people announced Castlevania dead for not having a lead of 23489562 votes before Chief's afternoon vote kicked in? Same deal here. People announced Sub-Zero dead all through his lead increase, only there was a slight difference. Master Chief actually did make a good push come the afternoon surge he always gets, but it was all for aesthetics. The Chief was never in contention to actually come back, but he did manage to cut off almost 2000 votes from Sub-Zero's lead before finally going down in the end.

Which no one will remember when discussing this match, much like no one gives a crap that Magus lost to Knuckles by 1750 votes instead of 2750 votes.

But no one will learn. Master Chief's legions of graphic whores and wannabe FPs pros will overseed him again and again, and more often than not, the Chief will lose one round before he's supposed to in a close match that never should have been close. It's happened to Halo twice, it's happened to Chief twice (with a close call against DK in a match of who choked harder), and it will happen again. Two is an accident, but anything more is a trend. It'll be even funnier if this continues on after Halo 3, which it will.

By the way, are these poll results funny or what?

<http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2097>

<http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2004>

In three of the past four contests, the final match has seen a 7 seed upset a 2. The lone exception featured Shadow Hearts as the 7 seed, and Shadow Hearts will never win anything. Also lost in the shuffle is that this was Sub-Zero's first contest match; four years after Scorpion's ridiculous run to the Elite 8 and we finally get to see Sub-Zero in a match.

But what may suck above all else is that we keep looking for reasons to ditch the 2002-2003 stats, and for good reason. But matches like this allow those stats to stick around. According to 2003 stats, Scorpion scores 47.3% on Master Chief. Anyone with knowledge of Mortal Kombat or the fighting game fanbase in general knows that Sub-Zero has been stronger than Scorpion all along regardless of who has been put into brackets. If 2003 stats were taken seriously, more people would have picked Sub-Zero. Which everyone knows makes no logical sense, because Halo 2 and Chief actually impressing has happened since. Damn you X-Staaaaats! *shakes fist*

And with that, round one came to a close! No zero brackets yet again thanks to Zero (ironic...), yet somehow I doubt anyone would have cared about losing their zero had they lost it to the Chief upset.

## Match Trends

## Ed Bellis' Analysis

Master Chief and Halo always make for interesting matches, even when we think they won’t be. Case in point: this little disaster of a capper on the first round on 2006. Despite Scorpion’s great run way back in 2002 (and the convenient release of Mortal Kombat: Armageddon the day of this match), very few really gave Sub-Zero a chance here. Yet Master Chief proved once again that we were all fools for believing in him, and he choked away the match that, for all intents and purposes, was his to lose. And lose he did, in a spectacular upset that made us all forget about how the female bracket was returning the next day.

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2530&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=32)

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---

## (1)Samus Aran vs (4)Ada Wong 2006

_source: (1)Samus Aran vs (4)Ada Wong 2006 (revid 56727)_

## Results

**Round Two**

Saturday, October 14th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Spazer Division Semi Final
- **Match \#:** 33
- **Match Date:** Saturday, October 14th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 73,429
- **Oracle Expectations:** Samus - 74.34% 121 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Samus - 93.65% (39,938 brackets)

The only notable thing about this match was the new match pic theme for the round; Ceej moved from medium shots of the characters to close-ups and changed the background a bit.

This match was Ada's effort to somewhat validate herself as a midcarder, and she kinda blew it. At the time of this match, we all figured Samus for someone who was still potentially stronger than Mario indirectly. So according to this and paired with Ada's expectations (I believe the average Oracle pick was somewhere around Samus with 75%), Ada underperformed. No clue how one would go about gauging an untested character before ever being in a match, though.

The disappointing thing is that RE seemed on an upswing. It performed respectably in the series contest, and both Ada and Leon did well in the first round of this contest. Even if Ada is a side character, you'd think RE4 would push her to do a bit better. Or maybe it's my fanboyism (semi-auto rifle in Mercs \>\>\> everything) speaking. Or maybe RE4 was a hit because of the Gamecube and Ada got SFFd. Who knows.

Another match, another expected result with the contest favorite killing another bug in the road. Neeeext.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2531&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=33)

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---

## (3)Rikku vs (2)Kairi 2006

_source: (3)Rikku vs (2)Kairi 2006 (revid 56729)_

## Results

**Round Two**

Sunday, October 15th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Spazer Division Semi Final
- **Match \#:** 34
- **Match Date:** Sunday, October 15th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 21,451
- **Oracle Expectations:** Rikku - 62.04% 119 for - 4 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Rikku - 58.25% (24,841 brackets)

This match was pretty much exactly what I and others expected, but WTF at the 58% prediction percentage. Have all been looking at the same contests or what? Kairi was able to use KH2 alone to take down Claire Redfield, but that logic pretty much goes out the window when you throw a Square character from a recent FF title into the mix, and one that actually... you know, does something in her game?

This match was so boring that you can look at the final result and practically see the entire trend from start to finish. Rikku had a minor bracket vote surge, and the fabled KH day vote was only able to give Kairi 1% during the day. I guess you could assume Rikku was supposed to do better if you compared their respective roles within their games, but it's not like it matters.

Gotta love the 8x8 format, where the winner of a match like this can actually make the divisional finals. Ugh.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2532&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=34)

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---

## (1)Tifa Lockheart vs (4)The Boss 2006

_source: (1)Tifa Lockheart vs (4)The Boss 2006 (revid 56732)_

## Results

**Round Two**

Monday, October 16th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Limit Division Semi Final
- **Match \#:** 35
- **Match Date:** Monday, October 16th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 59,661
- **Oracle Expectations:** Tifa Lockhart - 69.73% 124 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Tifa Lockhart - 79.01% (33,695 brackets)

Tifa vs The Boss wasn't a difficult match to look at; it was another in a long line of "What percentage will the winner get?" matches. The only real X-Stat info was 2005 Tifa versus Villain Contest Ocelot (64.76% for Tifa), so it's easy to call Ocelot stronger than The Boss after seeing this match. Tifa wins easily. Blah blah blah.

The real issue here was all of the fighting that broke out over who would win in a fight between these two, mainly because some were dumb enough to say that Tifa stood a chance. Tifa got her ass whipped by some scrub named Loz. The argument should just end right there.

Though if you really want to get into the technical aspects, Tifa is a straight-up brawler. The brawler style plays directly into The Boss's hands, and all of Tifa's joints would be snapped four seconds after the fight began.

Any questions? No? Good.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2533&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=35)

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---

## (3)Jill Valentine vs (2)Princess Peach 2006

_source: (3)Jill Valentine vs (2)Princess Peach 2006 (revid 56734)_

## Results

**Round Two**

Tuesday, October 17th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Limit Division Semi Final
- **Match \#:** 36
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, October 17th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 27
- **Oracle Expectations:** Princess Peach - 54.88% 104 for - 20 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Princess Peach - 62.87% (26,812 brackets)

*"It's a shame that Peach isn't facing someone weaker in round two so that more people can get burned by picking her."* -Leonhart4

**I'm making this topic to laugh at everyone that picked Peach.** *From Valvoras Posted 10/16/2006 8:07:30 PM \#001* *That's right. I laughed at those of you who took Celes, Cortana and Phoenix Wright. I proved my superiority to those of you on all three occasions. Now it's time for a more daring topic but with the same result. Jill Valentine is a lock to defeat Princess Peach. Jill is a decent mid-carder, nobody likes Peach. She'll be Wario-esque. You were fools to take Peach, say goodbye to 2 points.*

So anyway, this was a debated match for awhile before the contest began. Then Jill went into the tank against Sheena, followed by Peach just killing Daisy and the hype died off completely. That said, Jill supporters had a good reason to think she would win the match; I love Peach and all, but outside of Mario 2, SSBM and SMRPG, she's nothing more than an avatar. And past polls do suggest that the Mario fans care about her as such. A good case could have been made for either girl winning this match. It's a shame I haven't played any of Jill's games yet, because she seems like the type of character I would like. Dammit Ex, get me RE2 :(

When the match began, Peach made it look like Jill's collapse against Sheena was in fact imminent of things to come. She took the early (though not exactly *killer*) lead, and led by 450 in under 45 minutes. It would not last however, as Peach's early run was another example of the Nintendo Power Hour in action. Jill got Peach's lead under 400 by the end of the hour, then the two stalled for an hour longer. Once the night vote kicked in, Jill used it to make her move. From 2 to 3, Jill brought Peach's lead all the way down to 229. An hour later it was a paltry 27. Jill took over the match and increased her lead all throughout the night. By the time the morning vote hit and Peach decided it was time to pull her head out of her ass (which would be a rather difficult feat, come to think of it \<\_\<), Jill's lead was over 550. Peach made a small push during the morning vote, but she was never able to get Jill's lead under 300.

The Nintendo children had to go to school some time, and that's when Jill really brought the pain. In the six hours between 9 a.m. through 3 p.m., Jill's lead went from 345 to 1400. Barring a miraculous and borderline psychotic after-school vote for Peach, this match was over.

And then Peach took off 70 votes in the next 5 minute update. No big deal though, as Jill took half of that back over the next ten minutes. But then Peach took off 50 votes. Then 36. then another 50. In the blink of an eye, Jill's 1400 vote lead was back to triple digits and collapsing fast. It was Jill vs Sheena all over again, only with a match truly on the line this time around.

The after-school vote favored Peach so heavily that it took Peach less than four hours to blast away a 1400 vote lead. Jill made several stalls during her collapse, but it wasn't close to good enough. She also made a few stalls as Peach was building up a lead of her own, but it still wasn't good enough. Or so we thought. Despite Jill's best efforts, Peach had a 300 vote lead with three hours left in the match.

Remember Ryu Hayabusa vs Jill in 2004? Kind of impossible to forget if you were there. In a match eerily similar to Jill/Peach, Ryu and Jill went back and forth all day long, with Ryu seemingly getting the best of the match at the end. But Jill had one last run in her thanks to the RE night vote, and she made a near-historical march to victory when she came back from down 200 or so with 30 minutes left. She would go on to lose by a mere 27 votes. I don't know the exact extent of Jill's final push, nor am I opening up the poll updater to find out. That thing is a monster, and always crashes my computer when I open it :(

People brought up Ryu Hayabusa with reference to Jill possibly coming back against Peach, with the main difference being that Jill's other comeback came in the dead of night. Surely she couldn't come back against a Nintendo character with everyone still awake, ja?

Jill made a decent attempt at it early; in the first of those three remaining hours, she brought Peach's lead from 305 to 263. It could have been worse, but Peach managed a stall or recovery whenever Jill made a push. The 22nd hour of the match looked much the same, until Jill managed to take off 65 votes in a mere 10 minutes. Amid legions of cheating accusations that sprung up (and for good reason), Jill was slowed down once again by Peach. She made a decent recovery in getting her lead from 160 to 200, and at this point every vote mattered.

And then the final hour of madness came. In a mere 30 minutes, Jill brought Peach's lead from 200 to 87. With 30 minutes left, it was a mad dash to the closing bell, with Jill holding a big edge at the beginning. She killed 50 votes from 23:30 to 23:40 to bring the lead down to 37, and it looked like Jill had this thing all but won. But Peach made her most timely recovery of the entire match; from 23:40 to 23:50, she increased her lead to 73. Jill brought that thing down to 56 in the next 5 minute update, but 56 votes in the final five minutes was a massive stretch.

Jill would take off a huge chunk of that 56 however, and ultimately lose by.... 27 votes. Again.

If you thought Jill supporters would take this thing quietly however, you wish. But let me back up for a moment. The cheating accusations from Peach's side were more than accurate. Skip ahead to Ceej's topic after the match.

*CJayC \| Posted 10/17/2006 9:23:48 PM \| message detail* *An in-depth analysis shows lots of back and forth, lots of rallies, but no individuals who managed to alter the results of the contest.*

*Not that they didn't try, of course.*

*The "cheaters" vote-stuffed for Jill by only an extra 4%, but that would have been enough to tip the balance if we didn't have measures in place to block it. Of course, none of those votes actually counted, as did none of the votes from the three users were axed for vote-stuffing; all three for Peach.*

*\*shrug\**

Accurate but not wholly valid, if you believe that post 100%. Then again, who knows if Ceej's security is 100% accurate; he's never really mentioned what methods are in place, for obvious reasons. As for whether any cheat votes went through or whether Ceej had a hand in the outcome of the match, we'll never know. It's worth noting however that the poll update times were going haywire all day.

But anyway, yeah, Nintendo fans aren't the most mature out there, but the anti-fanboys are much worse. Between Vlado's constant whining and Valvoras's lovely "Jill will win" spectacle, it's a wonder anyone bothers posting on Board 8 anymore. It's always nice being called mentally challenged over your taste in gaming characters. But on the bright side, check this gem out:

*Valvoras \| Posted 10/26/2006 12:49:47 PM \| message detail If I truly felt like I was getting "owned", I would close this topic.*

*Valvoras \| Posted 10/27/2006 12:12:46 AM \| message detail It will be closed in 5 minutes.*

As for what to make of the match, it was a classic in every sense, and all the people who said it was a tossup were correct. Peach just had more in the tank at the end, and she can definitely thank a combination of NintendoFAQs, SSBM and Jill not being in RE4 FTW. And Peach getting this far was all I really wanted, because I knew she had no chance against Tifa. I also didn't care about her upcoming loss after a win like this =p

(See? A Peach writeup with no bias \>\_\>)

## Match Trends

## Ed Bellis' Analysis

This match saw a lot of cockiness on both sides (anyone remember Valvoras?), but the end result proved to be as much of a tossup as you could get. Now I know this match had lots of lead changes – Peach in the beginning, Jill in the morning, Peach afterschool, and Jill with a final push at the end that was preposterously intense and made her lose by a margin of 27 votes… which was the exact same margin she lost by two years ago against Ryu Hayabusa. Jesus. This match was crazy excitement and didn’t seem to let up, as the voting demographics kept bringing in new voter pools and such.

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2534&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=36)

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---

## (1)Zelda vs (4)Terra Branford 2006

_source: (1)Zelda vs (4)Terra Branford 2006 (revid 56736)_

## Results

**Round Two**

Wednesday, October 18th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Triforce Division Semi Final
- **Match \#:** 37
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, October 18th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 68,821
- **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda - 73.48% 125 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zelda - 92.79% (39,571 brackets)

Zelda was an obvious force after her demolition of Carmen Sandiego, but that was Carmen Sandiego. Demolishing Terra was another animal entirely.

Going on 2005 stats, Zelda was expected to get something like 72.3% here. Given that Terra's match with Kerrigan went according to plan, it wasn't too far off to attribute stats to this match. Except for the part where Zelda decided to go psycho and put the fear of god into Samus's title hopes.

Zelda actually began this match over 80%, but a good FF6 night vote allowed Terra to get her down to 76. Then the sorry-ass FF6 day vote kicked in, paired with the beast Zelda day vote. The end result was Terra being embarrassed to hell, and we may never again see Terra or Celes back in contests after the way they performed here. This match also thrust Zelda into the Samus upset conversation, because Samus likes to suck in matches against Nintendo characters.

More importantly, Aeris was surely dead next round at this rate, barring a similar psycho demolishing of KOS-MOS. Whatever it was that gave Mario all that strength last year may have aided Zelda in the female bracket, because she looked head and shoulders above everyone through two rounds.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2535&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=37)

• **Previous Match**       • **Next Match**

---

## (3)KOS-MOS vs (2)Aeris Gainsborough 2006

_source: (3)KOS-MOS vs (2)Aeris Gainsborough 2006 (revid 56738)_

## Results

**Round Two**

Thursday, October 19th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Triforce Division Semi Final
- **Match \#:** 38
- **Match Date:** Thursday, October 19th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 26,463
- **Oracle Expectations:** Aeris Gainsborough - 67.33% 124 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Aeris Gainsborough - 71.70% (30,577 brackets)

So yeah, that killer match Aeris needed to prove she could hang with Zelda? Never happened. In fact, she got the polar opposite.

Last year, KOS-MOS embarrassed herself by going down 66-34 to Luigi, in a match that was 'supposed' to be a lot closer. The year after, KOS-MOS found herself paired with a character that has perennially been stronger than Luigi, yet made Aeris look a lot weaker than him. Aeris was never really able to take off during the match, despite her fans saying that she would do so once the anti-Aeris/FF7 votes wore off.

It never happened. Aeris floated around the 63% area all through the night vote and through most of the day, and then the after-school vote saw her lose percentage instead of gain it. 61.65% on KOS-MOS when you're trying to be in the running to take down Zelda isn't a good sign. Some people tried to blame Aeris' bad showing on the match picture (Aeris looks like a stoner, and KOS-MOS's boobs are practically hanging out), but I'm still convinced that only people without sex lives would honestly blame TJF for anything.

Aeris was set up to get her ass whipped next round, and it would take the best match possible for her to perform otherwise.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2536&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=38)

• **Previous Match**       • **Next Match**

---

## (1)Yuna vs (4)Joanna Dark 2006

_source: (1)Yuna vs (4)Joanna Dark 2006 (revid 56740)_

## Results

**Round Two**

Friday, October 20th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Aeon Division Semi Final
- **Match \#:** 39
- **Match Date:** Friday, October 20th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 64,482
- **Oracle Expectations:** Yuna - 67.48% 123 for - 2 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Yuna - 70.13% (29,908 brackets)

A lot of noise was made pre-contest about how Yuna was the black sheep of 1 seeds in the bracket, yet her first two wins were as impressive as anyone else's. Then again, she faced Roll and Joanna Dark, two characters not exactly well-known for lighting up contest polls. The only thing Yuna really proved here is that the Chun-Li \> Yuna upset noise was likely misguided, as Yuna was clearly the favorite to win her division. 2005 stats had Yuna only scoring 68% in this match; even behind possible Samus/Ganon SFF, 78% is no joke.

And since I have nothing else to say about this one, some fun with X-Stats!

Yuna (2006c) VS Mario (2005c)

Yuna has a strength of 35.26.

Mario has a strength of 43.20.

Mario wins with 59.19% of the vote!

A win of 22,671 with 123,350 total votes cast.

Yuna breaking 40% on Steroid Mario would be something else. Though in fairness, Mario did only do 2% better on Jo than Yuna \<\_\<

That's something like Mario only scoring 52% on Yuna if you only take Jo into account. PERFECT DARK ALWAYS WINS.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2537&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=39)

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---

## (3)Chun Li vs (2)Lara Croft 2006

_source: (3)Chun Li vs (2)Lara Croft 2006 (revid 56742)_

## Results

**Round Two**

Saturday, October 21st, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Aeon Division Semi Final
- **Match \#:** 40
- **Match Date:** Saturday, October 21st, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 12,788
- **Oracle Expectations:** Chun Li - 57.78% 114 for - 9 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Chun Li - 33.15% (14,137 brackets)

I really have to hand it to Lara here, because I expected her to get destroyed -- just like in every other contest she's ever been in. Yet for whatever reason, this contest was different. Not only did Lara have Legends (Tomb Raider's RE4, from what I hear), but she had most of the brackets behind her as well. You have to go all the way back to 2002 stats to consider Lara capable of doing this well in any match.

What's funny is that for awhile, it looked like Chun-Li was going to rip into Lara like most everyone before her. She was at 61% and climbing fast early in the match, but then the sad Street Fighter day vote kicked in. Chun bled percentage all through the match and finished with a mere 55-45 win over a washed up hack. Sad effort no matter how you view it, and Chunner's once-viable upset bid over Yuna died after this match.

Maybe Lara is another of those characters that can be grouped into the Ryu/Dante/Zero mold, in that she performs decently unless put up against a Squintendo character. 2003 and especially 2004 both saw her lose rather badly to Nintendo characters, and I don't even think she was in 2005. It's a theory that makes as much sense as anything else, because I doubt a new game played by 6 people did all that much. And for what it's worth, 2002 stats did kind of call this \<\_\<

(Damn 2002 stats.)

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2538&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=40)

• **Previous Match**       • **Next Match**

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## (1)Solid Snake vs (4)Squall Leonhart 2006

_source: (1)Solid Snake vs (4)Squall Leonhart 2006 (revid 56744)_

## Results

**Round Two**

Sunday, October 22nd, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Patriot Division Semi Final
- **Match \#:** 41
- **Match Date:** Sunday, October 22nd, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 20,648
- **Oracle Expectations:** Solid Snake - 55.67% 108 for - 5 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Solid Snake - 79.20% (33,776 brackets)

There was a lot of upset discussion going into this match, based off of 2005 stats:

Snake (2005c) VS Squall (2005c)

Snake has a strength of 36.97.

Squall has a strength of 35.16.

Snake wins with **52.45%** of the vote!

A win of 4,945 with 100,996 total votes cast.

Assuming a standard Snake tank-job (happens every year) paired with a potential KH2 boost for Squall, you end with a longshot upset and some noisy fans throwing numbers around. It all made enough sense, but *that's.... why they play the games*. </Berman>

All talk of an upset died within minutes of this match beginning; Snake took a comfortable lead and ran with it, with Squall giving no indication of ever coming back. In fact the polar opposite of an upset was taking place in that Snake was doing much better than his value prediction, and on a KH2 Squall to boot. This was the first true indication that Snake was on steroids this contest, and we all know it wouldn't be the last. Just glancing at the updater, I think Squall only won one update; that's pretty bad considering how close these two were in the stats.

But from the silver lining department: [<http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=955>](http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=955)

Squall increased 8% in four years! Come 2010, Squall might have a chance in a rematch \<\_\<

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2539&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=41)

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---

## (6)Yoshi vs (2)Dante 2006

_source: (6)Yoshi vs (2)Dante 2006 (revid 56746)_

## Results

**Round Two**

Monday, October 23rd, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Patriot Division Semi Final
- **Match \#:** 42
- **Match Date:** Monday, October 23rd, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 1,425
- **Oracle Expectations:** Yoshi - 49.10% 50 for - 64 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Yoshi - 31.20% (13,306 brackets)

Yoshi/Dante being close would have been far more dramatic had we not seen Jill/Peach give us a template of trends a few days prior. The difference this time around is that Yoshi had nothing going for him going into this match. He'd never done better than Dante in the stats, and the two looked like they were in opposite directions after their first round matches. Dante beat Ryu H as expected, while Yoshi struggled with Riku. Even the people who picked Yoshi to win this match acknowledged that Dante looked like he would win easily; we just stuck with Yoshi out of faith more than anything.

In fact, here's part of my analysis crew writeup for the match, complete with the one stat (albeit a big stretch) that gave Yoshi a chance:

*Yoshi scored 43.67% against Bowser in an SFF match in 2003. Dante 2005 supposedly would score 44.79% on Bowser 2005.*

*If Yoshi was noticeably SFFd in 2003, then he has a good chance of beating Dante. The problem is that the entire Dream Division from 2005 has tanked this contest, so Bowser is a bad measuring stick. Dante will likely win this barring some NintendoFAQs magic, but I'm picking Yoshi anyway just to keep with what I have in the bracket.*

*By the way, anyone using Riku as a basis for why Yoshi may do bad here needs some common sense. Have you people SEEN what KH2 has done over the past two contests?*

Odd as it was to have a lot of faith in Yoshi due to him being behind SFF in all the stats, Yoshi semi-proved early in the match that he's been underrated for years. He came out and smoked Dante early, en route to a lead of 600 in under an hour. But then the Nintendo Power Hour wore off, and Yoshi's lead increase stalled. Dante then began a painstakingly slow process to get the votes back, and I feel during the night is when Dante lost the match. It was reasonable to assume that Yoshi would have strong morning and after-school votes, yet Dante spent the entire night struggling to chip away at 600 votes. By the time Dante was able to break through and tie, the morning vote was already here.

Yoshi used the next few hours to build another lead for himself; this time he stalled at 450 or so, but that's only because the Nintendo children all went to school. Dante then went on another struggled comeback train, and yet again was only able to tie the match once Yoshi's next expected surge came. Sure enough, Dante was able to build a lead of 43 before finally going into the tank. The after-school vote completely buried him. Yoshi would eventually lead by 1700 votes before Dante made another push, but by then the match was too late.

Thanks to Peach, very few people watching this match believed that Dante had a chance once he made it clear that he would struggle just to break even. This wasn't a Jill Valentine situation in which Dante put the match into question by going berserk during Yoshi's off time. He just... kind of tanked. Dante had no reason to lose this considering what the two characters had going for them coming into the match, but some good old NintendoFAQs magic did him in. Depending on how seriously you took the Jill/Peach trends, Dante was done sooner than later.

RPGuy's theory like Vince Young comes through in the clutch once again!

## Match Trends

## External Links

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## (1)Sora vs (5)Gordon Freeman 2006

_source: (1)Sora vs (5)Gordon Freeman 2006 (revid 56748)_

## Results

**Round Two**

Tuesday, October 24th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Destiny Division Semi Final
- **Match \#:** 43
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, October 24th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 33,998
- **Oracle Expectations:** Sora - 65.98% 116 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Sora - 73.04% (31,149 brackets)

Gordon Freeman looks just like Hugh Laurie (guy that plays House).

Anyway, two major Gordon Freeman traditions broke in this contest. First, he actually won a match. And second, Gordon had never been held below 40% in any match prior to facing Sora. Sadly, Gordon never even threatened breaking 40% outside the first few seconds.

Once Gordon fell below the 40% barrier down to 36 or so, he made a decent recovery. During the night vote, Gordon managed to crawl back up over 38.5%. But then the beast KH day vote hit, and that was the end of that. I fear Gordon may not even be in the bracket next year, as most of his nominations have been based on GFNW fad power. Ceej knew this, and always overseeded Gordon against some scrub.

What are we left with now? :'(

## Match Trends

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## (6)Ryu vs (2)Mega Man 2006

_source: (6)Ryu vs (2)Mega Man 2006 (revid 66203)_

## Results

**Round Two**

Wednesday, October 25th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Destiny Division Semi Final
- **Match \#:** 44
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, October 25th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 19,284
- **Oracle Expectations:** Mega Man - 62.49% 116 for - 1 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Mega Man - 58.83% (25,089 brackets)

Summer 2002: Ryu scores 42.15% on Samus

Summer 2003: Ryu scores 42.74% on Solid Snake

Summer 2004: Ryu scores 44.46% on Sonic

After a slip-up in 2005 (all because Ryu's loss was against a non-Noble Niner, I swear! \<\_\<), Ryu was back to his old self in 2006. Win a match or two, put up 40% on a Niner and wait until next year. At this rate, Ryu breaks 40% on all NN members by 2013.

Even though we know better about Mega Man at present, it was easy at the time to just assume that Ryu was back to form and that Mega Man's awful picture cost him a percent or two in the final tally. The only real sign of Mega Man's imminent collapse was falling from 61% to under 57, but he made a decent recovery once the after-school vote hit and few people thought ill of his chances after this here match with Ryu. It wasn't until Sora that people realized Mega Man was done.

So anyway, who should Ryu put 40% on next year? Crono? Cloud? =p

## Match Trends

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## (1)Sonic the Hedgehog vs (5)Vincent Valentine 2006

_source: (1)Sonic the Hedgehog vs (5)Vincent Valentine 2006 (revid 56752)_

## Results

**Round Two**

Thursday, October 26th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Blast Division Semi Final
- **Match \#:** 45
- **Match Date:** Thursday, October 26th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 5,202
- **Oracle Expectations:** Sonic - 54.13% 110 for - 10 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Sonic - 52.63% (22,445 brackets)

This was an interesting little match, though the final vote margin is a bit misleading. Sonic was never really in danger of losing this match, though all the people desperate to see the NN break were certainly rooting for such. That all ended minutes into the poll, when Sonic had a comfortable lead that he would slowly build on through the night. Vincent managed a few stalls and minor update wins, but all drama was gone once the standard Sega day vote kicked in and buried him. Vincent did manage a bit of face-saving in the end, chipping off a couple hundred votes in the waning hours.

The thing I found most interesting is that unlike other matches in which Sonic has struggled, I didn't see a ton of "lolmg Sonic choke'd" stuff being posted. People were more happy for Vincent doing so well than anything else, and it's just beyond me how someone this strong hasn't been in a contest field until 2005. Further, all that stuff Vincent had going for him after the 2005 contest must have made a difference. FF7 or not, the guy went from being 50-50 with Squall to 48-52 with a much stronger Sonic. If Square continues whoring Vincent out instead of the usual suspects, we may be seeing the molding of a future NN breaker.

On Sonic's end, regardless of how strong Vincent is you had to think Sonic's chances of winning the bracket were done after this match. 52-48 on a non-NNer doesn't cut it once the true heavy hitters show up. And on a total side note, why was this division named Blast instead of Chaos? We see Triforce get used and reused, yet a badass name like Chaos gets sacrificed for this? Ugh.

Actually, one last side note. 52.63%? HM couldn't have convinced that many people...

## Match Trends

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## (3)Kirby vs (2)Luigi 2006

_source: (3)Kirby vs (2)Luigi 2006 (revid 72031)_

## Results

**Round Two**

Friday, October 27th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Blast Division Semi Final
- **Match \#:** 46
- **Match Date:** Friday, October 27th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 4,922
- **Oracle Expectations:** Luigi - 50.65% 67 for - 51 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Luigi - 41.08% (17,519 brackets)

Put this match on a bracket any time before Luigi kicks Zero's face in, and most people would tell you Kirby was the favorite without a second thought. But after the Zero collapse, Kirby's lackluster win over Prince and the increasing likelihood of SFF going in Luigi's favor, it was difficult to imagine Luigi losing this match going in.

For the first 30 minutes of the match, everything was up in the air. The two characters went even for a few minutes, then Luigi managed a lead of 77. Kirby cut it down a bit, but then Luigi took off FTW at the 35 minute update. His lead went from 37 to 99, and then to 155 five minutes later. While it's usually stupid to call matches that early when they've been close, comebacks in SFF matches are almost impossible; usually the true colors of a fanbase will show in kind no matter how close a match is. Ergo, Luigi won a close match that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicates. Kirby wasn't in this thing after 35 minutes.

This was also the last proof anyone really needed to know that the Dream Division last year was a total fluke; Kirby rSFFd Bowser, and probably by a good amount. The only issue remaining after his loss to Luigi is how this match would have looked without SFF, which may be an issue when people do their brackets next season.=

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2544&num=2)
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## (1)Crono vs (4)Bowser 2006

_source: (1)Crono vs (4)Bowser 2006 (revid 56756)_

## Results

**Round Two**

Saturday, October 28th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Time Division Semi Final
- **Match \#:** 47
- **Match Date:** Saturday, October 28th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 17,835
- **Oracle Expectations:** Crono - 57.80% 118 for - 1 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Crono - 63.75% (27,187 brackets)

Crono's win over Bowser was every bit as boring as the win over Falcon, though the trend of votes had to ring a few alarms. It's funny how when Crono was going 62-38 on Bowser, some people were condemning the fat turtle for only being high in stats because of Snake being ass in sprite matches.

And then predictably, the day vote came along and caused Crono to bleed percentage for the rest of the match. It didn't cause him to lose or anything, but I remember thinking to myself "One of these days Crono is going to go up against someone that'll make him pay for being such a slug during the day". To this day, I'll never understand how Crono stayed even with Mario for three years or how Chrono Trigger held off Link to the Past. The game and all of its characters are awful during the day vote, to the point where it's just funny to watch.

Oh yeah, and apparently there was some stat scenario where Bowser was behind SFF and could have upset Crono with a true value. Or something. I don't care enough to look it up, because it's obviously completely meaningless.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2545&num=2)
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## (3)Auron vs (7)Sub-Zero 2006

_source: (3)Auron vs (7)Sub-Zero 2006 (revid 56758)_

## Results

**Round Two**

Sunday, October 29th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Time Division Semi Final
- **Match \#:** 48
- **Match Date:** Sunday, October 29th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 25,927
- **Oracle Expectations:** Auron - 61.45% 116 for - 2 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Auron - 35.88% (15,301 brackets)

It never fails; Master Chief is always going to be overestimated to hell and back in these things. Only 36% of people had Auron winning twice?

Anyway, Subby's upset run lasted all of one match, and Auron predictably beat him easily. The vote totals are a bit high due to the match being 25 hours long, but still, nearly 135,000 votes on a meaningless second round match is silly. And Sub-Zero looks like The Shredder in the match pic, which is totally unrelated but I felt like mentioning it anyway.

What truly matters here is that a long-standing injustice has finally been rectified. A couple years back, Auron faced Scorpion in a match. The result: [<http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1739>](http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1739)

Auron won 64.85% - 35.15%. Extrapolated, Sub-Zero scores 43.53% on his inferior palette swap clone POS. This match made me a happy man, because for two years Scorpion kept getting into brackets on the basis of one weak-ass eightpack while the far superior Sub-Zero sat on the sidelines. When Subby finally got his chance to perform, he not only exposed Master Chief (But who doesn't?) but he also proved that Scorpion never had a place getting into contests over him. Thank you, Rally Contest \<3

And on that note, two rounds in the books with our best contest stretch run since Games 2004 yet to go.

## Match Trends

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## (1)Samus Aran vs (3)Rikku 2006

_source: (1)Samus Aran vs (3)Rikku 2006 (revid 56760)_

## Results

**Round Three**

Monday, October 30th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Spazer Division Final
- **Match \#:** 49
- **Match Date:** Monday, October 30th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 47,052
- **Oracle Expectations:** Samus - 66.80% 106 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Samus - 83.98% (35,814 brackets)

Always nice to be in the third round of a contest and have a horribly predictable match going on. Samus beating Rikku was never in doubt, and this was one of those "How much % will the winner get?" deals. The only notable thing is that even third-rate Square vs Nintendo matches draw high vote totals.

One other thing of note however is that this was my favorite sprite round theme since 2002. It causes a nice mind lapse if you stare at the pic too long, because it starts to look like the background is the foreground with a 3D hole punched through it. But I'm weird and find amusement in silly things, so moving on...

Yeah, Samus running through her division was predictable as hell and left zero indication at all of her upcoming near-collapse.

## Match Trends

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## (1)Tifa Lockheart vs (2)Princess Peach 2006

_source: (1)Tifa Lockheart vs (2)Princess Peach 2006 (revid 56762)_

## Results

**Round Three**

Tuesday, October 31st, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Limit Division Final
- **Match \#:** 50
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, October 31st, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 38,797
- **Oracle Expectations:** Tifa Lockhart - 64.05% 106 for - 1 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Tifa Lockhart - 61.24% (26,116 brackets)

If Jill getting beat didn't put all the "lol Peach is fodder" crap to rest, this certainly did. Honestly, who didn't think Peach would get doubled (or worse) with ease in this match? Still, a blowout is a blowout regardless of final percentage and Tifa won her division with absolute ease. My only argument is that Peach is NOT THE JOKE SOME THOUGHT SHE WAS.

Ahem.

On a totally different note, where exactly does that Tifa "sprite" come from? It can't be an FF7 model, because it has arms instead of Legos for limbs. And... that's really all I have to say. Outside of Jill/Peach and Samus/Tifa and *maybe* Kairi/Claire, the entire female half was downright awful. But everyone knows that.

## Match Trends

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## (1)Zelda vs (2)Aeris Gainsborough 2006

_source: (1)Zelda vs (2)Aeris Gainsborough 2006 (revid 56764)_

## Results

**Round Three**

Wednesday, November 1st, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Triforce Division Final
- **Match \#:** 51
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, November 1st, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 17,297
- **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda - 53.84% 100 for - 12 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zelda - 65.60% (27,976 brackets)

Finally, a match with a bit of meat to it. Or a lot, given that Aeris is one of the two characters involved.

Zelda was the clear favorite to win this thing even before the contest, and even before the news that Twilight Princess and the Wii would be delayed until the day after the contest was scheduled to close (literally). A rumor was going around about the system being released mid-October, but this never happened.

Even then however the Link and Ganon boosts over the last few years put Zelda well ahead of Aeris in potential. This said, there would be zero excuses that could be made for Aeris in the event of a loss. This match happened a day or two after the release of FF12, and Zelda looked like utter and absolute crap in that match pic. Aeris meanwhile had her beyond awesome Chain of Memories sprite going. What excuse could Aeris possibly have for losing?

It's actually a wonder she didn't get her face kicked in worse than she did. Zelda flew over 60% early in that looked like the makings of a blowout, but Aeris recovered well in percentage. Aeris chipped the percentage down below 55% with the aid of the night vote, and it took the god-like Zelda day vote to push Zelda back near 57. Aeris was rather impressive in not getting completely killed, but one has to wonder how close this match is if it takes place in 2003. It can also be argued that FF12 and the pic made a difference of a percentage point or two, but we'll never really know nor does it matter. Zelda was never in danger of losing this thing, though she did lose a few updates before the Zelda day vote kicked in.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2549&num=2)
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---

## (1)Yuna vs (3)Chun Li 2006

_source: (1)Yuna vs (3)Chun Li 2006 (revid 56766)_

## Results

**Round Three**

Thursday, November 2nd, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Aeon Division Final
- **Match \#:** 52
- **Match Date:** Thursday, November 2nd, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 25,528
- **Oracle Expectations:** Yuna - 56.87% 110 for - 4 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Yuna - 41.27% (17,600 brackets)

Yuna was widely regarded as the black sheep of the 1 seeds before this contest began, but she looked as impressive as any other en route to easily winning her division. I believe she performed well over expectations in all of her matches, though you'd have to check Oracle stats for that one.

Once upon a time, Chun-Li \> Yuna was considered a decent upset pick. Yuna was only expected to get 52% in the match, but this was before the Dream Division was proven a fraud, along with Chun's relative collapse against Lara Croft. 52% was a pipe dream after all that, but for Chunners to be overrated enough not to even break 40% in a match once thought winnable is pretty pathetic. Makes you wonder if she'll ever make a non-gimmick field again.

In the case of Yuna, she wouldn't have to wait long to prove whether or not she was for real with Zelda slated as her next opponent. Some wondered however if FF12 being released mid-contest had anything to do with her good performance here, ignoring that Yuna had been a beast all contest to this point.

## Match Trends

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## (1)Solid Snake vs (6)Yoshi 2006

_source: (1)Solid Snake vs (6)Yoshi 2006 (revid 56768)_

## Results

**Round Three**

Friday, November 3rd, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Patriot Division Final
- **Match \#:** 53
- **Match Date:** Friday, November 3rd, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 17,304
- **Oracle Expectations:** Solid Snake - 57.87% 107 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Solid Snake - 68.16% (29,068 brackets)

Somehow, some way, Ceej finds a way to make Snake look worse and worse with each successive sprite round. He has to know it to be an inside joke at this point.

In 2004 and 2005, Snake delivered two of the worst matches ever given by an "elite" character, both in sprite rounds against green animals. As such, the trendy pick was picking Snake to massively underperform again. And if this were 2005, Snake may have done just that. But Snake did no such thing, and was actually in the 59-60% range in the poll for quite awhile before the day vote came along to knock him down a bit.

Given how badly most expected Snake to do here (and for good reason, because his history in sprite matches is GOD-EFFING-AWFUL), 57% on Sprite Yoshi isn't half bad and is only about 4% worse than what would be expected through X-Stats. If his first two matches didn't clue you in that Snake was a beast this year, them him doing fine in a sprite match should have. And if that wasn't enough, we were only one round away from the Snake Victory Tour™ starting up as of this match.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2551&num=2)
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## (1)Sora vs (2)Mega Man 2006

_source: (1)Sora vs (2)Mega Man 2006 (revid 56770)_

## Results

**Round Three**

Saturday, November 4th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Destiny Division Final
- **Match \#:** 54
- **Match Date:** Saturday, November 4th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 11,463
- **Oracle Expectations:** Mega Man - 57.00% 110 for - 1 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Mega Man - 38.88% (16,581 brackets)

Sora's path was about as exciting as Switzerland in World War II before his match with Mega Man, but his legacy in 2006 was exposing the hell out of Mega Man long before Snake could.

There were hints of Mega Man being way off in his first two matches, but the match with Sora was nothing short of a monumental collapse. He literally did everything short of lose outright, especially given what was expected of him pre-contest. Easy road to the Final Four before losing to Crono. Blah blah blah.

When the match first began, Mega was actually well over 60% and looked as if he'd score what he was supposed to based off of 2005 stats --- the same stats that don't even account for Snake/Sora being a fluke. Then the wheels just came off. Mega bled percentage all through the night, and he was at a measly 57% by morning. Once the morning vote hit, Sora not only sliced into Mega's percentage with ease, but actually won some updates outright.

And this was supposed to be a character worthy of "elite" status? Once the KH day vote went into full swing, Mega bled percentage all through the rest of the match and lost enough updates to prove that he had zero chance against Snake at all. Snake after all beat the hell out of Sora one year prior, while Mega struggled with him. I have no clue how anyone had faith in Mega beating Snake after this, but ces la vie or however it's spelled.

Granted there was still a slim chance of Mega pulling off what would be considered an upset after the Sora match, so I'll save my reasons for Mega's collapse for the appropriate time. As for Sora, Kingdom Hearts is the only thing Square has done well on a consistent basis since their FF7 days. If the series continues on the track it's currently on, Sora could be an elite character in a few years.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2552&num=2)
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## (1)Sonic the Hedgehog vs (2)Luigi 2006

_source: (1)Sonic the Hedgehog vs (2)Luigi 2006 (revid 56772)_

## Results

**Round Three**

Sunday, November 5th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Blast Division Final
- **Match \#:** 55
- **Match Date:** Sunday, November 5th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 27,001
- **Oracle Expectations:** Sonic - 56.22% 108 for - 3 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Sonic - 40.04% (17,075 brackets)

What a god-awful prediction percentage. Who exactly in this division was going to beat Sonic? And that Luigi sprite reminds me of painful memories of people claiming that Luigi is anything but an uncontrollable hack in Mario 2.

Anyway, this match was a large coming down to earth for Luigi after his two, um... "upsets" of Zero and Kirby. Not only was Luigi never in this match, but he more or less did exactly what he was supposed to based off of 2005 stats save for actually breaking 40%. He did no better than what Tifa did last year, and if you paid no attention to any matches prior you'd assume this division to be another in the line of predictable duds.

However, this thing said a lot about how fraudulent Kirby and especially Zero have been. Kirby can easily be blamed on SFF (for now), but Zero is another animal altogether. The guy has never really shown signs of being overrated, yet he was slapped around by what ended up being a perfectly static Luigi. Either Luigi \> Zero was SFF, or Zero has been a complete fluke for years. We'll see next year, I suppose.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2553&num=2)
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---

## (1)Crono vs (3)Auron 2006

_source: (1)Crono vs (3)Auron 2006 (revid 83982)_

## Results

**Round Three**

Monday, November 6th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Time Division Final
- **Match \#:** 56
- **Match Date:** Monday, November 6th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 11,250
- **Oracle Expectations:** Crono - 59.41% 112 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Crono - 46.06% (19,643 brackets)

It's always funny seeing what Ceej comes up with in the sprite round for characters that have no sprites. I'm still waiting for the day when fan-made sprites are put into match pics.

It didn't occur to me until just now that Auron's match with Ganondorf is his only non-Square loss. His other three have been to Cloud, Sephiroth and now Crono. Against Cloud and Sephiroth, Auron didn't do so hot. But this was Crono that Auron was up against, which meant guaranteed percentage bleed after Crono's night vote surge.

This match was essentially Crono vs Vincent II. Crono made a decent push for 60% early, then bled percentage quickly until the match reached a static intake. The final percentage against Vincent didn't look so hot, but Crono went on to have a respectable finish to last year's contest. Same thing here, minus the respectable finish part.

I know putting a lot of stock into likely SFF-heavy stats is stupid, but Auron vs Vincent would be a damn good match based off this result. Or at least, it would have been in 2005. And on that note, all the division winners were decided. This contest seemed like it would have a rather boring stretch run (I mean damn, look at the first three rounds; very little went on), but this thing grew historic at a meteoric rate.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2554&num=2)
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## (1)Samus Aran vs (1)Tifa Lockheart 2006

_source: (1)Samus Aran vs (1)Tifa Lockheart 2006 (revid 56776)_

## Results

**Round Four**

Tuesday, November 7th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Tournament Quarter Final
- **Match \#:** 57
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, November 7th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 1,418
- **Oracle Expectations:** Samus - 57.41% 102 for - 1 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Samus - 63.88% (27,242 brackets)

Did you ever think you'd see Tifa in not one, but two match pictures in the same contest in which her boobs were smaller? Unbelievable.

Anyway it was finally time for division winners to all go at it, and the quarterfinal round set the tone for what would grow to be arguably the best contest stretch run ever. At the very least, it was the best two weeks we've seen since Spring 2004's Starcraft madness. And it was all thanks to Samus's worst match ever. Sure Samus completely tanked against Mario last year, but I'll never concede that that match wasn't bound to happen from day one. Besides, plenty of people saw that coming. No one saw Tifa being the closest character to breaking the Noble Nine (editor's note: other than Bowser, though only by raw totals), nor did anyone think that Samus would be the character on the ass end of this.

Holding off on the theories for a moment, this match didn't start all that bad for Samus. Oh and I'm sure I should mention somewhere that Ceej asked Board 8 (seriously, "Board 8"; Ceej should just change the board name and get it over with) for a Kingdom Hearts 2 Tifa pic mere hours before the match, so considered it mention'd.

In the first few minutes of the match, Samus jumped out to a rather unimpressive early lead, but had an early lead regardless. 2005 stats say that Samus should have come close to breaking 60% here, but her biggest percentage early on was 57%. Regardless, it just meant Tifa doing better than expected. Surely, Samus couldn't actually lose \<\_\<

During the Nintendo Power Hour, Samus showed early signs of her eventual struggle. A quick glance at the updater reveals three stalls in Tifa's favor during a demographic that Nintendo had been dominating since the poll time switch, and on top of this Samus was anything but impressive. She bled percentage like mad en route to her 700 vote lead through the first 60 minutes, but made an excellent recovery over the next 30 minutes in adding another 150 to her lead. After two hours, Samus's lead neared 900 as the dead of night neared, and it seemed as if Tifa's minor scare would fall well short a la Sonic \> Tifa in 2005.

Yeah, whoops. After a minor struggle between the two early, the night vote favored Tifa by a fairly wide amount. The two stalled a lot, and then Tifa would randomly have 50 vote updates. Tifa's momentum grew very constant as the night vote progressed, and she shockingly tied the match before the morning vote ever showed up. On top of this, Tifa went on to build a lead of 200 before said morning vote came into play to save Samus. After another long stall between the two, Samus finally gained some momentum and erased Tifa's lead. Samus began building a lead of her own, which reached ~750 before school began. Tifa made a decent push at regaining control of the match during school hours (she brought the lead down below 400 at one point), but anyone who has paid attention all contest knew what was bound to happen once school let out. Samus made a huge after-school push to seal the match away. Samus's biggest lead was around 1700 votes, though Tifa sliced 300 off of that before closing time.

Samus may have won the match, but anyone who says she didn't bomb like hell here is out of their mind. Check the stats topics; nearly all of the posts were about how much Samus sucked during this match, especially given that she was the overwhelming favorite to win the entire thing. Now, the door was open for pretty much everyone left. What's even funnier is that had Vincent been in Tifa's place, the Noble Nine would have croaked. Vincent \> Tifa \> Aeris is about as clear-cut as it'll ever get (barring future Kingdom Hearts appearances) given this contest's results, but that's a whole different scenario for another time.

Nintendo has been ripping the hell out of Square since 2004, yet here we have a rather flagrant statistical outlier. The factor of choice is the match picture, which I've always found rather bogus. The same people who blame Samus's choke job on the match pic are the same people who give SSB/M most if not all the credit for Samus being elite at all. That said, everyone who loves SSB/M knows the name "Samus Aran" and thus renders most of that argument moot. In fact, most SSB nuts know full well who Zero Suit Samus is by now. For the match pic to have made nearly 10% of a difference, the entire blame would have to be on a damn large chunk of Metroid fans not knowing who "Samus Aran" is without her suit on. It's a theory that makes some sense, given how often (see also: not much) Samus's name is seen in the series. But 10% of difference? Something else was up.

Ceej made a topic post-match about how the stuffed votes (none of which were counted, though I suppose that all depends on how good you think the security methods are) about how the cheated votes would have easily given Tifa the win. I actually don't have the topic saved, but I'm sure TRE will show up minutes after this gets posted and do his computer thing \<\_\<. On a side note, can you imagine the uproar had Ceej allowed the votes, then waited until the match was nearly over to remove them? On the off-chance that Ceej actually reads this, you should totally do that the next time a close match has a ton of cheating in it. You know you secretly love making the board go nuts :)

Personally, I think Samus tanking against Nintendo characters has more to do with her than it does Nintendo. I'm willing to bet that there's a certain degree of "Mid-1990s SFF" if you will in regards to Samus. Super Smash Brothers was the only game Samus appeared in between 1994 and 2002, and it's not like the people on GameFAQs aren't well-rounded enough to ditch a character they may only know from SSB/M and some Metroid Prime titles and a few handheld titles once a heavy-hitter from that eight-year period shows up in a match against her. Aren't most people on GF too young to remember Super Metroid?

Hey, at least that theory makes more sense than "lol I like character A more but her match pic sux so i'm voting character b even though i normally would have voted A normally, and plus i'm too stupid to know the name of a character i luv xoxo". Or maybe Tifa just had the match of her life and there is no real explanation, who knows.

Oh, right.... MOTHER \*\*\*\*ING LOL X-STATS.

Speak of the devil:

*From TRE Public Account Posted 1/12/2007 4:00:59 PM \#005* *<http://www.thengamer.com/gamefaqs/06Fall-CJaySpeaks.txt>*

**Battle \#57 Analysis**

*CJayC Posted 11/8/2006 12:21:22 AM message detail*

*Good stuff. Some suspect voting patterns, but the end result is all good. Results verified by Diebold.*

*While Samus won by 2418 votes, there were 2997 more "cheating" votes caught for Tifa than Samus, which means that it could have been an upset if we didn't have these measures in place. Of course, just in case you're worried those might just all have been legitimate votes unfairly thrown out, 2210 of them came from just 6 unique IP addresses.*

*Surprisingly, only two axes handed out.*

## Match Trends

## External Links

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## (1)Zelda vs (1)Yuna 2006

_source: (1)Zelda vs (1)Yuna 2006 (revid 56778)_

## Results

**Round Four**

Wednesday, November 8th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Tournament Quarter Final
- **Match \#:** 58
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, November 8th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 18,993
- **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda - 57.99% 101 for - 2 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zelda - 52.81% (22,521 brackets)

This was a rather awesome match for us FFX fans, considering Yuna wasn't even supposed to break 40% here. Then again there might be weird Samus/Ganon SFF in the 2005 stats, so who knows what Yuna's true value even was last year.

Regardless, this was the easiest match to call in the Elite 8 and it played out as such. The only surprise was that Zelda didn't completely destroy Yuna, which plays into a few theories: Square vs Nintendo doesn't like to follow stats, FFX-2 boosted Yuna and Rikku, and characters gain momentum as they go through contests. I like that last theory the best, because we've seen some rather screwed up late-round matches over the years.

It's also worth noting that Yuna didn't get completely buried by the Zelda day vote, and that this match was rather consistent. For all the "Zelda is going to SFF Samus" stuff that popped up during Samus's collapse against Tifa, this was the first match in which Zelda looked imperfect. I've also got nothing else, because I feel like being lazy after that long writeup just now.... plus the only TV I ever watch is about to come on, so screw you guys :)

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2556&num=2)
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## (1)Solid Snake vs (2)Mega Man 2006

_source: (1)Solid Snake vs (2)Mega Man 2006 (revid 72838)_

## Results

**Round Four**

Thursday, November 9th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Tournament Quarter Final
- **Match \#:** 59
- **Match Date:** Thursday, November 9th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 13,515
- **Oracle Expectations:** Solid Snake - 49.94% 54 for - 52 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Solid Snake - 48.36% (20,624 brackets)

Ah yes, the collapse that was readily apparent after Mega Man bombed against Sora. Anyone who says they didn't see this coming wasn't paying attention much, but I'll admit I didn't think Mega would collapse this badly. Given how easily Mega Man has defeated Snake twice in years past, this was simply an embarrassment.

Snake vs Mega Man was a rather clear-cut match pre-contest, but Mega was the clear favorite due to said two matches of the past. Yet for whatever reason, the two switched roles this contest. Snake seemed like the one out to prove something, while Mega Man was the character just getting by. It all finally came to a head in this match; the only part of the match in which Mega looked halfway decent were the first few minutes in which all the Board 8 bracket votes were flowing in. Mega was \*only\* down 55-45 at that point, and then he just collapsed the rest of the night in a match he was supposed to win.

Mega was able to make a decent recovery during the day, because after all Mega is above all else a Nintendo character above any other. His voting trend in this match showed as much, not to mention the Mega Man \> Yoshi reaming of a year ago. Mega made a good recovery during the morning vote, fell off again during the school vote, then recovered after school and all the way through the end of the match... assuming a gain of one percent against a character traditionally pathetic during the day vote counts as "recovering".

And thus, the Year of the Snake was born. This wasn't the first time Snake would shock the hell out of those paying close attention to contests, but more on that when it's applicable. 55-45 isn't so great a match in most cases, but look at the prior two Snake/Mega Man matches.

- [<http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1364>](http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1364)
- [<http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1775>](http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1775)

Snake was never in either match, and even the most faithful of Snake fan thought him facing Mega for a third time was just unfair. Then the contest started and everyone noticed how the two were doing... and then the upset. Capcom's bastardization of the Mega Man series is finally starting to catch up to the blue bomber, and the series being beyond repair likely means a gradual decline as the years go on. Seriously, Mega Man ZX was awful. If that's the best Capcom can do, then the series is just gone already. Make one last good game, kill off all the characters and just spare us Mega Man fans the pain of seeing how bad everything is.

I stand by the topic I made during this match; Mega is the frontrunner to be the one that breaks the Noble Nine. Between how stupid Capcom is and how Mega is already starting to be forgotten, nothing short of an appearance in a Smash Brothers title is going to save him. And what's funny is that because Mega is essentially a Nintendo character in these contests, this match could have been far worse. But since most of Snake's boost came from the Brawl announcement (*the* show-stopper at E3 2006, not to mention GameFAQs), Mega Man was able to tap into a little Nintendo magic and save a tiny bit of face. I mean after all, he won.... two updates, I think =p

And for those saying this couldn't be the case, skip ahead and look at Snake/Sonic. With the way Mega Man and Sonic performed this contest, there's no effing way that Sonic and Mega Man are still that close. Credit to Karma Hunter for noting that during the side discussion in this here PCA :)

## Match Trends

## Ed Bellis's Analysis

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2557&num=2)
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## (1)Sonic the Hedgehog vs (1)Crono 2006

_source: (1)Sonic the Hedgehog vs (1)Crono 2006 (revid 56782)_

## Results

**Round Four**

Friday, November 10th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Tournament Quarter Final
- **Match \#:** 60
- **Match Date:** Friday, November 10th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 1,940
- **Oracle Expectations:** Sonic - 48.76% 23 for - 73 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Sonic - 13.31% (5,676 brackets)

Crono was the favorite here, and deservedly so. There was no indication Crono would lose this match, even after Mega Man's collapse for reasons that would ultimately apply to Crono as well. Crono performed as such early on in the match, using his beastly night vote to take a 2000 vote lead on Sonic within hours. It wasn't until here that Sonic acted like he even belonged in the match; Sonic stalled the hell out of Crono during Crono's best time, and the biggest lead Crono was able to see was 2200.

Even though Europe stalled Crono well before Crono's best time was up, Crono like would have still lost even had he been spotted 4000 votes. The guy has been so god-awful during the day vote that someone was bound to make him eat it eventually. When Sonic began going on his roll, Crono was absolutely defenseless. For whatever reason, the people that are on GameFAQs between the hours of midnight and 6 a.m. are the only ones who give a crap about Chrono Trigger.

Sonic began a very slow push during the waning hours of the night vote, but caught some steam once the morning vote showed up. Crono stalled Sonic a lot during the push, but the overall result was Sonic tearing into that 2200 votes like dogs on bacon. Then came the after-school vote *overwhelmingly* favoring Sonic, and before anyone knew it Sonic would complete the largest vote swing in the history of these contests. Winning by 1940 is rather misleading, because it feels like Sonic just blew the poor guy away for 18 hours straight.

In back to back matches, we saw both Mega Man and Crono get their due for having not done anything since the 1990s. I can see how Mega Man lasted so long, but Crono not having a match like this earlier (and hanging with *Mario* of all characters three years running) is just beyond me. Chrono Trigger sold like ass, and even if CT is the \#1 emulated game, how many people really emulate? Enough to make that big of a difference? And on top of all that, Crono is a character that thrives on low vote totals --- 2002-2003 be damned, there's been a huge shift in who votes on these things since then, and Crono just can't keep up. The guy needs either a proper sequel, a proper remake or a release on the Wii's Virtual Console (or all three) or he's done in the same way Mega Man is. Square might not be as inept as Capcom is, but they're close. They've been unbelievably hit and miss since Final Fantasy 7, and it's been mostly miss.

FF8, FF9, FFX, FFX-2, FFTA, FFCC, KH:COM, FF4A --- all of these games either have really mixed reviews or are bad outright. KH and KH2 are excellent, but outside of that Square hasn't done much. Even in their good games (FF5A, FF12), they screw something up. It's disheartening, but it's what those idiots deserve for firing Sakaguchi over one mistake. \*\*\*\* Japan and their idiot business policies.

And \*\*\*\* Sega while I'm at it. I can't complain about Sonic winning this, as I love 2D Sonic and think he's a better character than Crono (most characters are, but that's beside the point). Not only do they constantly crap on their target audience (check out their pending lawsuit of YTMND; Sega really does think it's more important than it really is), but they constantly churn out awful games and think they're doing something good because of a few psychos in Europe. Enough is enough already; the Saturn and the Sega CD and the Dreamcast and Shadow the Hedgehog and Sonic Heroes and Sonic 360 and currently being Nintendo's lapdog have apparently taught those idiots nothing. Stop ruining my beloved Sonic and Tails and Knuckles, dammit. But hey, Sega being Nintendo's tool is what they deserve at the moment, but I'm totally off subject here. \*\*\*\*in' go Snake and Sonic! I have nothing against Mega Man and Crono (love more MM games than most, and CT owns), but the better characters certainly won. It made for an interesting setup between Snake and Sonic. On paper, anyway.

## Ed Bellis' Analysis

Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Crono was one of the most dangerous matches to ever occur, though few even realized its true potential until it was finally unleashed upon the world. On one side of the poll, you have a character with some inspiration by the later episodes of Dragonball Z. On the other side of the poll, you have a character that could easily be from Dragonball Z...

Sonic defeated Crono by a margin of 1,940 votes (50.77% to 49.23%). What is notable about this high-profile match is that fewer than ONE IN SEVEN brackets (13.31%) selected Sonic the Hedgehog to win.

There are those who look at this match as the turning point in Crono's career. Since his game was created over 10 years ago, the silent protagonist may find it very difficult to hold a fanbase worthy of the upper tiers of the Noble Nine.

On the other hand, the match could also be looked upon as the true power of Sonic the Hedgehog. Sonic has only lost to four characters: Cloud Strife, Samus Aran, Mega Man, and Solid Snake. A case could easily be made for SFF in the case of Mega Man (old school).

This was also the first time that Leonhart's off-the-wall Sonic the Hedgehog related bracket upset paid off. He's not letting anyone forget it.

## Match Trends

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## (1)Samus Aran vs (1)Zelda 2006

_source: (1)Samus Aran vs (1)Zelda 2006 (revid 56784)_

## Results

**Round Five**

Saturday, November 11th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Tournament Semi Final
- **Match \#:** 61
- **Match Date:** Saturday, November 11th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 13,905
- **Oracle Expectations:** Samus - 53.73% 81 for - 8 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Samus - 41.17% (17,557 brackets)

After Samus's ridiculous tank job against Tifa, Zelda possibly rSFFing her to death was somewhat possible, and it may very well have gone down that way if Twilight Princess were released mid-contest. As it stood though, what we saw in the first few minutes was essentially the entire match; 55-45, Samus wins in very consistent fashion.

Pretty boring, though it's funny to note that Zelda did over 4% better on Samus than Ganondorf did despite Zelda being perceived as the weaker character of the two. On that note, Zelda probably did rSFF Samus a lot in this match, but obviously not nearly enough for the win. This seems like an impressive match given what went down a mere four days prior, but if the Tifa match never happened we'd all be accusing Samus of yet again bombing against a Nintendo character.

This win put Samus into the finals, though not in the manner everyone expected. Samus once seemed like a lock, but at this point the door was slightly open for either Snake or Sonic to do something special.

## Match Trends

## External Links

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## (1)Solid Snake vs (1)Sonic the Hedgehog 2006

_source: (1)Solid Snake vs (1)Sonic the Hedgehog 2006 (revid 76630)_

## Results

**Round Five**

Sunday, November 12th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Tournament Semi Final
- **Match \#:** 62
- **Match Date:** Sunday, November 12th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 13,767
- **Oracle Expectations:** Solid Snake - 50.68% 59 for - 33 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Solid Snake - 27.08% (11,549 brackets)

This match was up in the air in terms of who would win, and then it actually started. 1 ripped into 2 even worse than 1 had ripped into....

Err..... [1](https://archive.is/20131016012017/img81.imageshack.us/img81/4931/omgceejmessedupagainbv1.png)

(Thanks Zen!)

When the match restarted error-free, Snake made Sonic look worse than Mega Man, and by a hefty amount for a damn long while. Sonic was all the way down to 41.75% at one point (Mega finished with 44.67% on Snake) during Snake's downright sick night vote push, and it really did look like Mega Man would be able to save some face.

But Sonic had his surefire beast day vote push ready to go, and despite only winning a couple of updates all match, Sonic recovered a lot of percentage during said day vote. Finally, during the after-school block, Sonic passed the magical 44.67% barrier and never looked back. He ended up breaking 45% with 6 hours left in the match, and was barely able to hang on to the percentage before the match finally ended.

In 2005, Snake finally broke through and made a Final Four. In 2006, behind a rather massive Nintendo-related boost, Snake made the finals of the entire contest with a damn vengeance. And who knows, maybe Samus would tank against Snake the same way she did against Tifa and give Snake the win outright.

This has already been discussed, but something really flukish happened with the Snake/Mega Man/Sonic trio. Mega Man tanked the entire contest while Sonic looked as strong as he always has, yet it took Sonic over 15 hours to get a higher percentage on Snake than Mega Man. Something doesn't really add up, and I think it's entirely Nintendo-related. Mega Man's fanbase is largely Nintendo, while Sonic's is less so. If you ask me, Mega Man overperformed on Snake by a fairly decent amount thanks to the main reason for Snake's boost (Brawl announcement) being much less of a factor given Mega's fanbase. rSFF, if you will. And then there's the whole thing about Mega Man being stronger than Crono in the stats following this contest, which makes zero sense given their match last year.

Given the overall performances of the final four male characters, Mega Man is the most likely to be blamed for anything odd given how badly he tanked every match prior to facing Snake. That 44.67% was a gift, because all signs said he should have done much worse.

## Match Trends

## External Links

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## (1)Samus Aran vs (1)Solid Snake 2006

_source: (1)Samus Aran vs (1)Solid Snake 2006 (revid 56788)_

## Results

**Championship**

Monday, November 13th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Tournament Final
- **Match \#:** 63
- **Match Date:** Monday, November 13th, 2006
- **Vote difference:** 7,960
- **Oracle Expectations:** Samus - 48.30% 26 for - 63 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Samus - 12.54% (5,352 brackets)

The only thing I dislike about user-made match pics is how many get picked sometimes. 12 match pics? Seriously? :(

For the first six hours or so, this was the most exciting final we've ever had. You could argue FF/Zelda, but it was a given that Zelda would flatten FF come the day vote. With Samus/Snake however it was tough to guess what would happen, at least for a little bit.

The two were close for the first few minutes, then Samus took off for a 1000 vote lead despite Snake's best stalling efforts. The night vote wasn't as nice to Snake as it needed to be, and the best Snake was able to manage was a prolonged stall as opposed to a serious push for the win. He prevented Samus from getting her lead above 1100, then managed to use the tail end of the night vote to get Samus's lead under 800.

Then the morning vote arrived, and Samus just exploded for a relatively easy win consider how close it was early on. 800 became 1000, which eventually grew to Snake simply running out of steam and collapsing during the day vote. Samus may have won this contest on paper, but Snake certainly won this thing in spirit. And besides, the contest wasn't even over yet. There was still the Battle Royale left to go, where Snake would have the last laugh in all of this.

Snake was in six matches in this contest, and arguably his worst efforts were against Nintendo. The massive jump in Wii anticipation on GameFAQs following the Brawl announcement should be proof enough of why this is, as should Mega Man likely being overrated in the stats. There's also that small bit about how Link, Zelda and Ganon all jumped 3-5% following the TP announcement, showing that E3 has made a difference in the past.

## Match Trends

## External Links

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## Cloud Strife vs Link vs Mario vs Samus Aran vs Sephiroth vs Solid Snake 2006

_source: Cloud Strife vs Link vs Mario vs Samus Aran vs Sephiroth vs Solid Snake 2006 (revid 56796)_

## Results

**Battle Royale**

Tuesday, November 14th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Battle Royale Day 1
- **Match \#:** 64
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, November 14th, 2006
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Samus booted out - 55.68% (23,745 brackets)

CJayC's idea to get the heavy-hitters out of the main bracket this contest was a good one; an all-out battle royale in which the winners of every character battle plus the male and female bracket winners were all thrown into a series of polls. The character in last place was to be eliminated each day until Link was the last character standing. Ceej can do whatever he wants, but Link being stronger than everyone is going to be a known fact until another miracle happens. On a totally unrelated note, I vaguely remember the picture for this match popping up literally minutes before midnight; people figured the BR would be pic-less until this happened.

Going into the BR, there was a ton of discussion about how it would go down given that we'd never seen anything like it before. Some figured that it would be very different from what everyone expected, while others figured that it would be close enough. Personally, I had Link \> Cloud \> Sephy \> Male \> Mario \> Female. The general consensus was that Link and Mario would SFF Samus (a lock to win the female bracket, though Tifa almost caused the upset of the contest) into oblivion, and that Link \> Cloud \> Sephiroth would be the top three in the BR.

The debate came in the form of Mario, the male winner and the effect of Cloud/Sephiroth SFF. There was a Hero SFF theory thrown around as the latest moronic excuse people gave for why they hoped Cloud would beat Link this year, but... yeah.

Link finishing first and Samus finishing last was almost a mortal lock given the past; Link is god-like and Samus always gets SFFd to hell by Nintendo. Sephy \> Cloud was an outside possibility, given that fan favorites always seem to do freakishly well in polls involving multiple characters. Call it the Yoshi Effect. The mystery was how badly if at all Mario would get SFFd by Link on Day 2, after Samus's inevitable boot. I actually had Crono winning the male bracket, and I felt Mario would get SFFd enough to allow Crono to finish 4th given how well Chrono Trigger resisted SFF against FF7 in the games contest. Crono resisting SFF against FF7 was much more likely than Mario resisting Nintendo SFF at the hands of Link, so Male \> Mario for 4th wasn't a bad upset pick at all. But then Snake and Sonic went and killed the male bracket, so that logic was kind of moot.

Oh right, an actual poll was held on day one. The final results are exactly what I expected, but early on it looked as if Sephiroth was going to collapse. He was in dead last place to start, and it took a good day vote to pull him out of there and ahead of Mario and Snake. Samus, as everyone expected, bit the dust thanks to Mario and Link. Link, despite how low percentage, killed everyone else and it would only get worse later on.

The other giant surprise was Snake doing better than Mario, but I'll save that one for the next writeup.

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## Cloud Strife vs Link vs Mario vs Sephiroth vs Solid Snake 2006

_source: Cloud Strife vs Link vs Mario vs Sephiroth vs Solid Snake 2006 (revid 79327)_

## Results

**Battle Royale** Wednesday, November 15th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Battle Royale Day 2
- **Match \#:** 65
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, November 15th, 2006
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Mario booted out - 9.96% (4,248 brackets)

Day 2 was my little upset special, which came through perfectly. I figured pre-contest that Link would SFF Mario to death on day two, which is exactly what happened from start to finish. The interesting thing here is comparing the percentages from day 1 to 2. Cloud and Mario barely moved, and it seemed that all of Samus's power went to Link, who just exploded between the two polls.

The other thing of note outside of Mario's shocking-but-not-really last place finish was Sephiroth and Snake. Relatively speaking, Snake performed out of his mind in the first two BR polls; with no reason to move up in percentage between the two days, he did so anyway. Sephiroth meanwhile dropped in percentage despite not having a reason to do so either. And for the second day in a row, Sephiroth relied on a good day vote to get himself out of last place and into respectability. The final result isn't indicative of how bad Sephy did, and though it meant nothing (yet), Sephy essentially spent the entire day coming back on and overtaking Snake. However if the percentage trend between the two repeated itself, we were in for Sephy going down on day three, which would be the first real shocker of this thing.

Oh and I'd brag about picking Mario correctly here, but it was tough to imagine Mario getting SFFd this badly given the 2002 final. Comparing that final to the FF7/Chrono Trigger match yielded an even comparison, and I only picked Crono to outlast Mario there because 2002 is irrelevant and predates the Zelda crew's TP announcement boost. Snake outlasting Mario in Crono's stead is just blind luck really \<\_\<

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## Cloud Strife vs Link vs Sephiroth vs Solid Snake 2006

_source: Cloud Strife vs Link vs Sephiroth vs Solid Snake 2006 (revid 66205)_

## Results

**Battle Royale**

Thursday, November 16th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Battle Royale Day 3
- **Match \#:** 66
- **Match Date:** Thursday, November 16th, 2006
- **Oracle Expectations:** Link - 41.74% Cloud - 26.16% Sephiroth - 16.19% Snake - 15.90%
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Sephiroth booted out - 17.83% (7,604 brackets)

One day after Link SFFs Mario to death, Cloud essentially does the same exact thing to Sephiroth.

At this point, the BR's final was going to be an obvious Link \> Cloud thrashing. Cloud's percentage of votes barely moved in three days, while Link's increase was just ridiculous. The story here obvious was Sephy versus Snake in a match that wouldn't be up for debate if it were a simple one on one.

Sephy began this match as he did the first two, in last place. Well actually Cloud was in last place for a few seconds, but that didn't last. After the board vote wore off, the true match trend unfolded. And it was bad for Sephy. Link and Cloud did their thing, but the only thing that mattered was Snake tear-assing into Sephiroth during the night vote. Snake's lead over Sephy was over 650 by the time Sephy decided to counteract, though Snake managed this lead within two hours. Even if Sephy did manage to start stalling (which he did), there was still a lot of time left for Snake to give himself some distance.

For the most part, the two were even the rest of the night, though Snake managed to tack on an extra 100 votes before the morning vote. During the in-school vote, Snake built his lead to 900. Essentially, the match began when school let out and Sephiroth began his psycho charge. I don't even know how one would go about doing the math for this, but a 900 vote lead in a 4-character match equates to what for a one on one match? 2700?

Regardless, Sephiroth's after-school push reminded me of Master Chief's comebacks, and I'm sure the numbers would look very similar if Sephy and Snake were somehow alone in a poll. Anyway, at 2:45 EST, Snake was up by 897 votes. Sephy needed less than eight hours to tie the match, which is a crazy pace considering the setting.

It looked as if Sephy would just blow by Snake en route to a miraculous comeback, and Day 2 was the reason why. From 9:30 on Day 2 (when Sephy finally overtook Snake) through the end of the poll, Sephy increased his lead from 5 to 162. A similar pace would mean Snake going down on Day 3, save one minor issue. Sephy had an extra hour to build a lead on Day 2, whereas it took him until 10:30 to tie Snake on Day 3. If you look at the final hour from Day 2, Sephy and Snake more or less went even; in fact it took a huge final five minutes from Sephy to even win the hour.

The same thing would happen again on Day 3. Even though there was likely a ton of rallying this time around, Sephy and Snake went even for the rest of the poll. It looked as if Sephy had pulled away for good with 10 minutes left, but Snake made a big push in the second to last update to cut Sephy's lead down to single digits. The final five minutes was a mad dash that was mostly dominated by Snake, who made a 60 vote jump in that time.

I didn't save the topic Ceej made after the poll, but he said there was no cheating involved. A lot of people disagreed and claimed Ceej's security methods are weak, especially those who remembered Metal Gear Solid pulling the same stunt on Final Fantasy Tactics in 2004. Either MGS fans are the best vote-stuffers ever, or the best at rallying.

Regardless, Sephy shouldn't have allowed himself to be put in that position in the first place. If he didn't suck so much throughout all of the Battle Royale, he would have finished in third place with ease. He was easily *the* disappointment of the BR.

## Match Trends

## Ed Bellis' Analysis

Before we were introduced to the four-way format and the loveliness of how it would basically screw with everything, we got a bit of a test run in 2006’s Battle Royale, which pitted Clinkerothio and the two winners from the male and female bracket (Snake and Samus respectively) in a series of polls in which the last-place entrant would be eliminated each day until only one remained. Basically, the Battle Royale came down to how well you could predict SFF, since it was likely that it was going to be two Nintendo characters below Link and at least one Square character below Cloud. Most people had Crono taking the sixth spot.

Enter Super Snake, who proceeds to crap all over the entire male bracket and the Battle Royale itself. Thanks to a hefty helping of Link SFF, Snake managed to outlast Samus and Mario. That’s fine. But few expected him to outlast Sephiroth himself, which he managed to do by the skin of his teeth at almost the last possible second. Metal Gear Solid and all its characters seem to have a tendency to do that. Snake’s wild ride through the Battle Royale was the cap on his amazing run throughout the year.

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## Cloud Strife vs Link vs Solid Snake 2006

_source: Cloud Strife vs Link vs Solid Snake 2006 (revid 56803)_

## Results

**Battle Royale**

Friday, November 17th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Battle Royale Day 4
- **Match \#:** 67
- **Match Date:** Friday, November 17th, 2006
- **Oracle Expectations:** Link - 44.34% Cloud - 36.24% Snake - 19.17%
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Solid Snake booted out - 8.52% (3,633 brackets)

The final two days of the BR were rather boring and predictable, but then again nothing short of Link losing could have possibly topped Snake \> Sephiroth in Day 3.

For the first time, Link's percentage didn't go up like crazy, though 2% given the setting is still pretty nuts. Sephiroth going down obviously meant Cloud would go up like a bullet, and Snake, alone like always, almost managed to break 20% on the combined force of FF7 and Zelda. That's *damn* impressive, and it's worth noting that Cloud was in last place at the beginning of this poll. It took him 15 minutes to pull ahead of Snake for good.

Even though Snake didn't win the whole thing or the BR, this was his contest and his alone, and he might have more boosts in the works if MGS4 and SSBB are what we're hyping them up to be.

Check out the final stretch of this contest:

- Samus vs Tifa
- Zelda vs Yuna
- Snake vs Mega Man
- Sonic vs Crono
- Samus vs Zelda
- Snake vs Sonic
- Samus vs Snake
- 5 days of BR, and Snake was in four of these matches

Not only did Snake ditch the monkey of never winning over another Noble Nine member, but he went through over half of them in one week. The guy went through Mega Man, Sonic, Samus, Mario and Sephiroth before Link and Cloud at the same time finally offed him. The only run better than this was Division 128 in the games contest, which was tainted by mass cheating anyway.

Board 8 did a good thing in voting Snake the \#1 character in HE's latest Top 100 project, because the guy has been looooooong overdue. Long live Snake!

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## Cloud Strife vs Link 2006

_source: Cloud Strife vs Link 2006 (revid 56805)_

## Results

**Battle Royale**

Saturday, November 18th, 2006

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Round:** Battle Royale Final Day
- **Match \#:** 68
- **Match Date:** Saturday, November 18th, 2006
- **Oracle Expectations:** Link - 53.41% 60 for - 4 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Cloud Strife booted out - 36.05% (15,374 brackets) Link won - 46.78% (19,950 brackets)

This match wasn't *nearly* as close as the percentages indicate, and ever since 2003 Link has been treating his matches with Cloud like a new chance to outdo himself. The match wasn't in question after the first few minutes, and the rest of this thing was just an effort to see how badly Link could kick Cloud's face in.

For those who remember 2002, did you ever think you'd see a match in which a character struggled to break 46% while scoring 70,000 votes? Or better yet, imagine that during the summer of 2004. In fairness to Cloud, Link was at 58% early on in this thing before slowly bleeding percentage the rest of the match. But like Zelda \> Aeris, percentage bleeds don't mean anything if you're on the ass end of absolute destruction. Barring an FF7 remake, Cloud will never beat Link again.

And with that, the contest was officially at an end.

**Ultimate Loser™**

- Master Chief !

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