# Best. Game. Ever. (2009) _Board 8 wiki -- CC BY-SA 3.0. Contest overview plus 64 match writeups, in match order. Converted from MediaWiki to Markdown; navigation, image embeds and footnotes stripped. See ATTRIBUTION.md._ --- ## Spring 2009 Contest _source: Spring 2009 Contest (revid 81076)_
Spring 2009 Contest

Announced:

December 1, 2008

Started:

April 7, 2009

Ended:

June 9, 2009

Winner:

Winner: The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time Runner-up: Final Fantasy VII

Contest Winner:

Krahenprophet - 653 points

Notable matches:

S. Metroid/SMK/Sonic 3/Gunstar Heroes KH/GTA:VC/Metroid Prime/Paper Mario

Pokemon RBY/Zelda:MM/P.Dark/B-K

Oblivion/ToS/God of War/GTA:SA

Zelda:TP/RE4/KHII/HL2

SM64/CT/SotN/SMW2

SMW/SMB3/LoZ/SMB

FFVII/LttP/SM64/FFVI

MGS4/SSBB/Zelda:TP/RE4

Zelda:OoT/FFVII/LttP/FFX

Zelda:OoT/FFVII
**Spring 2009 Contest** **Spring 2009 Contest** was the second **Best. Game. Ever.** tournament held on GameFAQs. SBAllen announced the nomination period for this contest just a mere two weeks from the conclusion of the last contest. However, it was clear that the bracket would not be revealed until mid-January 2009 as SB himself said that he did not have set plan yet on the contest (like the format, number of contenders, etc) when he announced the contest on the first of December 08, not to mention the upcoming holiday period for GameFAQs as a whole, possibly making this the longest nomination period in GameFAQs history. Meanwhile, there are two interesting ground rules posted on the nomination page: - Nominating obvious "joke" games (i.e. low rated or extremely obscure games with silly names) will invalidate all of your nominations. Unlike the Character Battle, we actually want users to decide the best game of all time, and Big Rigs just doesn't fit. - User nominations will count for 1/3 of the bracket seeding; the other 2/3 will be based on professional review scores and GameFAQs user rating and review scores. There has been many speculations on how the seedings and bracket will be assembled due to the mix of "professional review scores and GameFAQs user rating and review scores" for bracket seeding instead of only users' nominations. Ngamer has done an extensive research on this issue on the first week of the nomination period. As it has been 5 years since the last Best. Game. Ever. contest, most Board 8 population were anticipating this contest with great passion. Petition starting from making sure the contest was 1 vs 1 to increasing series limit from 4 to 5 or 6 were brought up across the board to make sure SBAllen construct the bracket to be as fair and interesting as possible. Allen also gave Board 8 the chance to edit the bracket itself via a swarm of add/remove topics. When the dust finally settled, these were the replacements: Fallout -\> DCK2 Super Smash Bros. -\> Soul Calibur Golden Sun -\> Fire Emblem TWEWY -\> Street Fighter IV Panzer Dragoon Saga -\> Deus Ex Super Street Fighter II Turbo -\> Mortal Kombat II ## 2009 Spring Contest Detailed Stat Listings - Board 8's Spring 2009 Nominations - Spring 2009 1v1 Bracket - Spring 2009 Total Nominations - Board 8's 2009 Match Pics (Games Contest)
Contest Bracket
1972-1988 Super Mario Bros. The Legend of Zelda Super Mario Bros. 3 Super Mario World Super Mario World Super Mario Bros. 3 Final Fantasy VII LoZ: A Link to the Past Final Fantasy VII LoZ: A Link to the Past LoZ: Ocarina of Time Final Fantasy X LoZ: Ocarina of Time Final Fantasy VII
Donkey Kong Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!! Space Invaders Tetris Tetris Donkey Kong Mega Man 2 Pac-Man Tetris Mega Man 2 Super Mario Bros. The Legend of Zelda
Mega Man 2 Pac-Man Pong The Oregon Trail
Duck Hunt Galaga Ninja Gaiden Super Mario Bros. Super Mario Bros. Ninja Gaiden The Legend of Zelda Metroid
Dragon Warrior III Contra Metroid The Legend of Zelda
1989-1991
Castlevania III Civilization Sonic the Hedgehog Street Fighter II Sonic the Hedgehog Street Fighter II Super Mario Bros. 3 The Secret of Monkey Island Super Mario Bros. 3 Sonic the Hedgehog Super Mario World Final Fantasy IV
SimCity Super Mario Bros. 3 Tecmo Super Bowl The Secret of Monkey Island
Battletoads Final Fantasy Prince of Persia Super Mario World Super Mario World Final Fantasy Final Fantasy IV Mega Man 3
Crystalis Final Fantasy IV Mega Man 3 River City Ransom
1992-1994 LoZ: A Link to the Past Final Fantasy VI Final Fantasy VII Super Mario 64
Gunstar Heroes Sonic the Hedgehog 3 Super Mario Kart Super Metroid Super Metroid Super Mario Kart LoZ: A Link to the Past Donkey Kong Country LoZ: A Link to the Past Super Metroid Final Fantasy VI LoZ: Link's Awakening
Donkey Kong Country Doom Streets of Rage 2 LoZ: A Link to the Past
Final Fantasy VI Mega Man X Phantasy Star IV LoZ: Link's Awakening Final Fantasy VI LoZ: Link's Awakening Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Mortal Kombat II
Mortal Kombat II Secret of Mana Shining Force II Sonic the Hedgehog 2
1995-1997
Donkey Kong Country 2 Goldeneye 007 Resident Evil 2 Super Mario RPG Goldeneye 007 Super Mario RPG Final Fantasy VII Mario Kart 64 Final Fantasy VII Goldeneye 007 Super Mario 64 Chrono Trigger
Final Fantasy VII Mario Kart 64 Star Fox 64 Suikoden
Castlevania: Symphony of the Night Kirby Super Star Resident Evil Super Mario 64 Super Mario 64 Castlevania: Symphony of the Night Chrono Trigger Yoshi's Island
Chrono Trigger Earthbound Lufia II Yoshi's Island
1998-2000 LoZ: Ocarina of Time Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow Super Smash Bros. Melee Final Fantasy X LoZ: Ocarina of Time Final Fantasy X Metal Gear Solid 4 Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Banjo-Kazooie Perfect Dark Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow LoZ: Majora's Mask Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow LoZ: Majora's Mask Metal Gear Solid Pokemon Gold/Silver Metal Gear Solid Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow LoZ: Ocarina of Time Final Fantasy VIII
Deus Ex Final Fantasy Tactics Metal Gear Solid Pokemon Gold/Silver
Final Fantasy VIII Soul Calibur Starcraft Xenogears Final Fantasy VIII Starcraft LoZ: Ocarina of Time Final Fantasy IX
Chrono Cross Final Fantasy IX Half-Life LoZ: Ocarina of Time
2001-2003
Final Fantasy X Metal Gear Solid 2 Silent Hill 2 The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind Final Fantasy X Metal Gear Solid 2 Kingdom Hearts Grand Theft Auto: Vice City Final Fantasy X Kingdom Hearts Super Smash Bros. Melee Diablo II
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City Kingdom Hearts Metroid Prime Paper Mario
Diablo II Grand Theft Auto III Halo: Combat Evolved Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic Diablo II Halo Super Smash Bros.: Melee LoZ: The Wind Waker
Disgaea Fire Emblem Super Smash Bros. Melee LoZ: The Wind Waker
2004-2006 LoZ: Twilight Princess Resident Evil 4 Super Smash Bros. Brawl Metal Gear Solid 4
God of War Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas Tales of Symphonia The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Tales of Symphonia Metal Gear Solid 3 World of Warcraft Metal Gear Solid 3 The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion LoZ: Twilight Princess Resident Evil 4
Halo 2 Metal Gear Solid 3 Okami World of Warcraft
Gears of War Kingdom Hearts II Resident Evil 4 Shadow of the Colossus Resident Evil 4 Kingdom Hearts II LoZ: Twilight Princess Half-Life 2
Final Fantasy XII Half-Life 2 Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney LoZ: Twilight Princess
2007-2009
Grand Theft Auto IV Persona 4 Street Fighter IV Super Smash Bros. Brawl Super Smash Bros. Brawl Grand Theft Auto IV Call of Duty 4 Super Mario Galaxy Super Smash Bros. Brawl Call of Duty 4 Metal Gear Solid 4 Fallout 3
Call of Duty 4 Pokemon Diamond/Pearl Super Mario Galaxy Team Fortress 2
Bioshock LittleBigPlanet Metal Gear Solid 4 Portal Metal Gear Solid 4 Portal Fallout 3 Halo 3
Fallout 3 Halo 3 Left 4 Dead Mass Effect
--- ## Donkey Kong vs Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!! vs Space Invaders vs Tetris 2009 _source: Donkey Kong vs Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!! vs Space Invaders vs Tetris 2009 (revid 65234)_ ## Results **Round One** Tuesday, April 7th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 1972-1988 - **Match \#:** 1 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, April 7th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Tetris - 42.27% Punch-Out - 22.62% Donkey Kong - 22.35% Space Invaders - 12.79% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Tetris first place (2pts) - 54.93% Tetris second place (1pt) - 32.82% DK second place (2pts) - 33.69% DK first place (1pt) - 28.19% - **Advancing Prediction:** Tetris - 87.75% (33,605) DK - 61.88% (23,698) The contest started with a heavily debated match between Donkey Kong and Punch-Out, and we quickly learned SFF or LFF or whatever FF you want to pin on four-ways would not be as big an issue as initially predicted. Tetris was obviously going to murder this match, and Space Invaders was obviously going to get destroyed -- old-school SFF and just generally being weak can do that -- so the true fight here was between Donkey Kong and Punch-Out. Though there was a pretty even split here, the basic idea revolved around LFF. Either Donkey Kong would get LFFd by Tetris and be stronger than Punch-Out anyway, or Punch-Out would stick out like a sore thumb and score second place due to... sticking out like a sore thumb. It's a debate you can repeat for nearly any four-way match, but it was meaningful here. DK and Tetris are probably more "Nintendo" than Punch-Out, so it was reasonable to think Punch-Out could benefit from not only this, but hype from the Wii version of Punch-Out artificially inflating the original's strength. In the beginning, this poll was very close and unpredictable. DK and Punch-Out fought a very close duel in the early parts of the poll, but DK eventually seized a small portion of control and built a 100 vote lead once the madness of the first hour ended. DK then pulled a typical "slowly build a lead as the other game stalls you a bunch" thing overnight, before losing 300 votes in something like 3 updates once the morning vote hit. This of course started all the "DK is a choker, knew this was going to happen" stuff, so naturally Donkey Kong went on to easily win a match when everyone expected him to lose. That's just how DK rolls. He lost his whole lead when the morning vote began, then started exploding. The only reason people continued paying attention beyond DK's second wind is because everyone always expects DK to choke a close match away, but nope. Not this time. Donkey Kong of all games turned a close match into a fairly easy 53-47 win. Close, but not a nailbiter. Now despite DK winning this match, I truly do think Donkey Kong is more prone to old school Nintendo SFF than Punch-Out at the hands of something like Tetris. The problem here is Punch-Out is plain weak. I doubt this result changes if you held it even right now, after the release of the most recent Punch-Out. Not even a sports game (which is basically what Punch-Out is) can take full advantage of the DK Chokes-A-Lot Factor. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Alright, five years later and it's finally time for another Game Contest, whoo hoo! Wait, what's this... 4ways? Ugh. And divided by eras? UGH. Oh well, it should still be enjoyable, and at least I have a spot on the Crew so I can keep doing my... huh? I was fired from the Crew, and no one even bothered to tell me?! That's the last straw! Now I'll have no choice but to rebel all season and beat the other 6 Crewmembers senseless the whole while! Starting with Match One: Hmm, the season hasn't even kicked off and already I find that I have to disagree with my fellow Crewmates. While it's true that DK is a monster choke artist both as a character and a game, and I'll agree that the presence of a fellow iconic heavyweight like Tetris isn't going to be doing it any favors, I'm still not sold on Punch-Out being the game to knock it off. Little Mac only managed 16% of the vote two years ago in that match with Dante/Ammy/Matt, and was equally bad back in 2002. But surely the game should be a decent bit stronger than the character, right? I thought so as well, until I discovered this frightening little piece of evidence: Which forgotten Super Nintendo title would you most like to see re-made or given a sequel today? - ActRaiser 8.3% 5333 - EVO: The Search For Eden 8.48% 5451 - Illusion Of Gaia 14.64% 9406 - Secret of Evermore 11.8% 7582 - Shadowrun 8.21% 5277 - Soul Blazer 4.85% 3120 - Super Punch-Out!! 20.26% 13021 - Uniracers 3.12% 2007 - Zombies Ate My Neighbors 20.34% 13073 - TOTAL VOTES 64270 Okay, so this is the sequel technically but we're still talking the same fanbase. A fanbase so small it could only produce 20% of the vote against competition this awful, and didn't even manage a win over ZAMN? Come on now! Tetris is going to eat this poll alive, Space Invaders should have the name recognition to manage something like 12-13 percent, and I don't see Punch Out improving to the 26%+ that it's probably going to need if it wants to advance here. And thats why my final preds are... - Tetris - 39.35% - Donkey Kong - 24.56% - Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!! - 24.25% - Space Invaders - 11.84% Yes sir, I sense my '09 Crew career getting off to a smashing start! ### Next Day Review Oh my! Only one match into the Contest and already all six Crewmembers have tossed away their perfect brackets while I skate past in style. But before I go sounding TOO cocky here, I've got to be honest... when I went to bed at 3am last night I had 0% confidence in my DK pick. Punch-Out had pulled into a commanding 300 vote lead and I thought "here we go again- Donkey Kong pulled a lead with the late night old schoolers, but just like Duck Hunt before it PO is the better-loved title that's going to kill once the sun rises." What I didn't take into account is how (apparently) PO must have sold something like 17 total copies across Europe, because whoa did they ever bury it! Thanks Euroes, hopefully you guys will be bailing me out a few more times before this Contest is out. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3446&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=1) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=1) • **(No Previous Match)**       • **Next Match** --- ## Mega Man 2 vs Pac-Man vs Pong vs The Oregon Trail 2009 _source: Mega Man 2 vs Pac-Man vs Pong vs The Oregon Trail 2009 (revid 65235)_ ## Results **Round One** Wednesday, April 8th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 1972-1988 - **Match \#:** 2 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, April 8th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Mega Man 2 - 45.93% Pac-Man - 25.41% The Oregon Trail - 14.38% Pong - 14.20% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** MM2 first place (2pts) - 41.99% MM2 second place (1pt) - 20.44% Pac-Man second place (2pts) - 38.45% Pac-Man first place (1pt) - 42.95% - **Advancing Prediction:** Mega Man 2 - 62.43% (23,908) Pac-Man - 81.40% (31,173) A big debate heading into this contest was Tetris vs Mega Man. Personally, I contend Tetris is a part of the holy grail of NES-era games that would just destroy and annihilate anything else from this era -- along with Final Fantasy, Mario 1, Mario 3 and Zelda 1. Others believe a couple of the Mega Man games are also deserving of this tier, but this debate thankfully ended on the second day of the contest. Before getting into Mega Man 2, the Pac-Man/Pong/Oregon Trail triumvirate was a decent pre-contest debate. Thanks to L-Block's run in 2007, people will always try finding the next L-Block. That one entrant capable of a mid-contest joke rally that shocks everyone. The Oregon Trail, along with Battletoads, were the obvious candidates this contest. Both are huge 4chan fad titles, and Oregon Trail especially was played by everyone in grade school. For two and a half hours, Oregon Trail was a legitimate threat here. It had no chance of winning this particular match, but potential joke rallies only need to advance once or twice to get momentum and internet bandwagon rallies going. Oregon Trail stayed neck and neck with the favored Pac-Man, before ultimately and wholly collapsing. The Oregon Trail, for all of its potential, could not keep up with Pac-Man more than a few hours and we saw this contest's L-Block dead in its first match. Pac-Man would go on to a very respectable second place finish, Oregon Trail to a decent enough third place, and even Pong didn't do too badly for being in last. Given how badly some other last place games did this contest, Pong's 16.54% was not a bad score at all. Oddly enough, the only game in this poll that looked bad was Mega Man 2. When some expect you to contend with Tetris (and Tetris is no slouch), you don't go out and score 56% on Pac-Man. 56% on Pac-Man cannot be explained away by any LFF cop-outs, especially given Metroid nearly broke 70% on Pac-Man in 2004. The same Metroid that was SFF skull-\*\*\*\*ed by Mario 3 that year. Mario 3 SFFd Metroid, which might have SFFd Pac-Man, and Mega Man 2 goes out and only scores 56% on the twice-SFFd latter? And then it was supposed to go out and beat Tetris? I can understand defending something so silly pre-contest with fanboyism, but guys like Black Turtle and Lopen were trying to believe in MM2 \> Tetris even after this match. You guys are officially on crack, and I'm even a giant Mega Man fan along with you guys. No matter how you slice it, Mega Man 2 looked really bad here. It would also get worse for Mega Man before this contest was over. Way, way worse. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction I guess I'm just not as sold on MM2 as everyone else must be; sure MM is a solid NNer, but Europe hates this guy and his entire series, so there's no way MM2 has the same kind of blowout potential as what we're seeing from Tetris today. For example, check out how MM vs Nero last Summer went if you look at the European votes only: - Mega Man 38.74% 7324 - Nero 33.94% 6417 That's the kind of performance an NNer is supposed to allow to Auron or Vincent, not NERO! So yeah, I don't see MM2 cracking 50% by much, if at all. Pac-Man is getting compared a bunch to DK, which I think is fair. Sure the game/character will collapse to anything iconic, but there's a large gap between MM2 and something like Mario 3 so I think the recognition will result in a good showing. As for Oregon Trail, ehh, I'll admit that it scares me a little bit. If any of these 128 games have the potential for an L-Blockish joke run it would certainly be TOT, but between Pac's recognizability and MM's strength I don't see the Oregon rally wagon ever making it past the first river. That just leaves us with Pong, a game I'm seeming compared a bunch to Space Invaders, and again I have to agree with that sentiment. It's universally known, which works great against cult hits like RCR, but with all three other options being arguably about as well known and definitely better loved, Pong will probably be doing well just to make it to double digits. And that's why my preds for this one look a little something like - Mega Man 2 - 45.86% - Pac-Man - 26.37% - The Oregon Trail - 16.76% - Pong - 11.01% Feelin' good about these! ### Next Day Review Hey hey, another good result for me! Oregon had a little more punch than I'd expected early, but fell apart as soon as the Americans fell asleep just as I'd thought. And yikes, I was a little too right about MM2 underwhelming... My Tetris \> MM2 is looking great as a result, but my MMX \> Link's Awakening and MM3 \> FF4 (R2) are shaking in their boots right now! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3447&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=2) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Duck Hunt vs Galaga vs Ninja Gaiden vs Super Mario Bros. 2009 _source: Duck Hunt vs Galaga vs Ninja Gaiden vs Super Mario Bros. 2009 (revid 65236)_ ## Results **Round One** Thursday, April 9th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 1972-1988 - **Match \#:** 3 - **Match Date:** Thursday, April 9th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Mario Bros. - 57.08% Ninja Gaiden - 16.53% Duck Hunt - 16.31% Galaga - 10.19% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Mario 1 first place (2pts) - 74.11% Mario 1 second place (1pt) - 21.69% NG second place (2pts) - 29.91% NG first place (1pt) - 8.66% - **Advancing Prediction:** Super Mario Bros. - 95.80% (36,688) Ninja Gaiden - 38.57% (14,771) We've seen pretty much every type of SFF possible in contests, until this very match. For the first time ever, we got to see Same Cartridge SFF. In a transitive world, Mario Brothers \> Duck Hunt \> Ninja Gaiden would have been easy. Duck Hunt proved itself reasonably strong in 2004, and any Ninja Gaiden has completely and utterly stunk it up in every single poll it's ever been in. Ever. Look it up yourself if need be. The problem here is Duck Hunt got stuck with the worst possible opponent in Mario 1, but a lot of people still thought it would retain an original audience and beat Ninja Gaiden anyway. NG is seriously that bad in any poll you look at, barring Ryu Hayabusa's character battle results. The match began, and Duck Hunt had a small lead for 30 minutes. But then Ninja Gaiden came back, built up its own lead and the match was effectively over after the first hour was up. It wasn't Ninja Gaiden's strength so much as it was Mario completely dominating the poll. Mario stole all the votes, which is especially crippling to something like Duck Hunt, and there was simply nothing left over for Duck Hunt to make a move with. At times overnight, Mario was only leaving 50 votes per update for the other three games to work with. You can't mount comebacks that way. The morning vote was even worse for Duck Hunt, because as Mario went up, Duck Hunt went down. This match ended the moment Ninja Gaiden made it close, because Duck Hunt leeching Mario 1 and staging a comeback is an impossible task. Mario 1's dominance of this poll was nearly the best of the entire contest, but the fourpack Mario 3 got placed in was even funnier. But hats off to Mario anyway, because 70% in a fourway is no joke. By the way, make no mistake here. This match was decided entirely by Duck Hunt's weakness at the hands of Mario, and it would flatten Ninja Gaiden in a better situation. Beating a Same Cartridge-SFFd Duck Hunt isn't some monumental task and it did not prove Ninja Gaiden had any strength whatsoever, as round two went on to prove. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Mario's even more iconic/important/relevant than Tetris and facing competition just about as weak, so should be a lock for a huge showing. Galaga's a chump, but stands out from these NES choices enough that it should be able to outscore Space Invaders; Ninja Gaiden likewise gets to stand out just because probably half its voters are going to think they're supporting the Xbox game, while Duck Hunt is easily the strongest/most well-known/most played of the non-Mario options, but will be suffering from the first ever "same cartridge SFF". And that might be brutal, to say the least. So since I'm not covering any new ground with the above, let's look at this match pic. Oh cool, NG got just the pic I was hoping for! Ryu looks RIPPED, sporting a blade, a full on Ninjarific appeal that's still generic enough where people could easily mistake him for his Xbox version. But, watch out- Duck Hunt also scored a perfect picture! Here's the exact look that The Dog used to joke-factor his way to 14% of the vote just last season... even with Mario there to try to lay an SFF beatdown, I can't see DH falling below that number in this one. But then there's Mario 1, ALSO getting exactly the pic it would have wanted; look out, we could see a record blowout in this format after all! And Galaga... sorry, text way too blurred, that's not going to get it done. So taking all of that into account, I see DH giving NG a very good run but coming up a touch short due to Mario steal too many of its early NES-era votes. - Super Mario Bros. - 55.40% - Ninja Gaiden - 16.84% - Duck Hunt - 16.69% - Galaga - 11.07% ### Next Day Review Ha, another match where I go to sleep without much confidence in my choice, but Europe and the early morning vote bail me out for another win. I can't believe I'm one of only 3% of the site that's managed to go 3/3 to this point... I mean I had decent reasoning behind my picks but I've still been walking on eggshells for the first half of these matches. And I don't think tonight will be any different! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3448&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=3) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=3) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Dragon Warrior III vs Contra vs Metroid vs The Legend of Zelda 2009 _source: Dragon Warrior III vs Contra vs Metroid vs The Legend of Zelda 2009 (revid 65237)_ ## Results **Round One** Friday, April 10th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 1972-1988 - **Match \#:** 4 - **Match Date:** Friday, April 10th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** The Legend of Zelda - 54.89% Contra - 17.56% Metroid - 16.41% Dragon Warrior III - 11.07% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Zelda first place (2pts) - 68.16% Zelda second place (1pt) - 27.05% Metroid second place (2pts) - 54.35% Metroid first place (1pt) - 18.10% - **Advancing Prediction:** The Legend of Zelda - 95.21% (36,462) Metroid - 72.45% (27,745) The Legend of Zelda was expected to kill this match (which it obviously did), but it was also expected to kill Metroid so badly that Contra could sneak into second place. Zelda in general might not have gone Mario 1 and broke 70%, but this was a very impressive performance nonetheless. If I recall, Zelda 1 \> Mario 1 was the consensus pick in future rounds. This poll really did nothing to prove otherwise. I forget the exact stats charmander posted in the stats topic, but the Mario 1 \> Duck Hunt SFF compared with the Zelda \> Metroid SFF here meant something like a 52-48 win for Zelda. This whole thing became more clear once Mario 1 got the chance at crushing Donkey Kong like a beer can, but more on that later. Metroid did exactly what it was supposed to do here. It got crushed by SFF and scored 23% on Zelda --- it got something like 21% on Mario 3 in 2004, if you recall --- so this is exactly what we all thought Metroid would get. So, easy pickings for Contra, right? Yeah, what the hell happened to Contra here? Either it just completely sucks these days, it too is subject to some heavy Nintendo SFF, or the 2004 stats are completely wrong. Probably a mix of all three, though I lean to the former. Contra was the first in a long, long line of casual shooters to disappoint based on expectations. Losing is one thing, but it didn't bother showing up. Another good theory to explore here is Nintendo LFF not mattering quite as much as initially expected, which pops up over and over again in future matches. It's rare to see a consensus pick bomb this badly, and Board 8 bracket people have a big ego about this sort of thing. *Clearly* something weird was going on \<\_\< ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Every single Crew writeup went like this: "I'd take Metroid without too much trouble 1v1, but with Zelda in the way Contra has a clear edge here." Personally, I'm not entirely buying that line of thought. Let's take a look at some results, starting with the early days: - 2004 - Mario defeats Metroid with 78% - 2004 - LttP defeats Super Metroid with 74% - 2005 - Mario defeats Samus with 60% Alright, so these are pretty ugly, and certainly the three most well-known Samus/Metroid SFF'd results, which is why people assume that's still the case for this series/character. But actually things have been looking much better for it recently. Just take a look at - 2006 - Link defeats Samus with 78% (with Mario involved) - 2006 - Mario defeats Samus with 60% (with Link involved) ...okay, so the 2006 ToC was still pretty awful for Samus. BUT, in the 4ways battles of the past two years: - 2007 - Link defeats Samus with 70% - 2008 - Link defeats Samus with 70% (with Mario involved) - 2008 - Mario defeats Samus with 54% (with Link involved) Check it out- a major improvement against Mario, and she even held up quite well against Link all things considered. My theory is that the darker, more mature Metroid franchise continues to distance itself from Nintendo, which is allowing Samus and her games to hold their own more and more in recent years. This line of reasoning has lead me to... but I'm out of time, so here's my pick! - The Legend of Zelda - 57.06% - Contra - 16.08% - Metroid - 15.84% - Dragon Warrior III - 11.01% ### Next Day Review Bah, there goes my chance at the Perfect Bracket. And I was sooo close! \*cough\* As I briefly touched on though, losing these two Contra points doesn't bother me overly much since the remainder of my bracket relies on both Nintendo SFF not being quite so brutal as back in the day and Metroid in general being well-suited to the 4way environment, two ideas that you can make a better case for after seeing this result. So yeah, I'm not going to lie and say I didn't cry myself to sleep last night, but you have to understand it was a good cry. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3449&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=4) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=4) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Castlevania III vs Civilization vs Sonic the Hedgehog vs Street Fighter II 2009 _source: Castlevania III vs Civilization vs Sonic the Hedgehog vs Street Fighter II 2009 (revid 65238)_ ## Results **Round One** Saturday, April 11th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 1989-1991 - **Match \#:** 5 - **Match Date:** Saturday, April 11th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Street Fighter II - 35.65% Sonic the Hedgehog - 34.26% Castlevania III - 17.88% Civilization - 12.22% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Sonic first place (2pts) - 46.14% Sonic second place (1pt) - 36.26% SFII second place (2pts) - 45.36% SFII first place (1pt) - 38.65% - **Advancing Prediction:** Sonic the Hedgehog - 82.40% (31,556) Street Fighter II - 84.01% (32,172) Of these three polls, which loser is the most impressive? - - - Street Fighter 2, right? Sonic 2 was embarrassed at the hands of Mario World, and Mario RPG was similarly embarrassed at the hands of Chrono Trigger. Now you'd think a game that goes 43-57 against Mario RPG could beat a game out getting SFFd half to death, but this Street Fighter 2 we're talking about. Street Fighter is quickly joining the Halo/GTA list of things to never ever trust in contests, as evidenced by this match. Now this isn't to say Street Fighter was some heavy favorite, because there was a good case to be made for Sonic. An SFF beating at the hands of Mario World doesn't tell us much, and GameFAQs doesn't care about any fighting game not named Smash Brothers. Stop denying it, because it's true. But even with the nagging feeling Sonic could do something here, Street Fighter 2 ended up the consensus pick because of the format. Games don't = characters, but it's impossible to ignore how badly Sonic characters have all sucked in the past two fourway character contests. Every single one of them, especially Sonic himself. In 2007, Sonic nearly lost to Squall twice. Then in 2008, he laid one of the biggest contest eggs of all time and not only lost to Kirby, but let Kirby walk all over him from start to finish. It was never close. Sonic's characters couldn't do squat in this format, but his games might be strong? Street Fighter 2 might not be some contest legend, but surely it could beat a game whose characters have all sucked it up in this format, right? Then the match actually started, and it was Super Mario RPG \> Street Fighter 2 all over again, right down to the "OMG SF2 LOST?!" whining. Only this time, Street Fighter 2 didn't build up a lead only to lose. Sonic ran all over Street Fighter right from the opening bell, and it was never a match en route to Sonic's easy win here. The simple explanation is to credit Sonic games as being stronger than the characters, but the simple truth is GameFAQs does not and will not ever care about fighting games. It's been proven time and time again, though this match does bring up an interesting point about voters giving respect to a series' progenitor. We've actually seen this before with stuff like Final Fantasy and the original Zelda being strong despite people not liking them too much, but the original Sonic never got a chance to prove itself until this beating of SF2. Also of note here, for once, is that the weaker games gave us a good match. Castlevania 3 led Civilization for a good two hours before collapsing, which is a damn shame. Castlevania 3 is a brilliant game, but Symphony of the Night truly is the only game in that series with any strength. Some people actually blamed Castlevania 3 for Street Fighter's loss here, which is about as out of this world as it gets. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction We've got a real treat in store for tonight- a matchup between two relatively strong, relatively evenly matched games that are independent enough of the fodder below them for this result to just maybe be as legit as a straight up 1v1. In other words, an extremely rare occurrence for the SB era! My fellow crewmates have already done a fine job of going through the points in favor for either of these two games, so let me just quickly say that I agree with what appears to be the general sentiment. Namely, that Sonic's character appeal and name value would have made this an easy victory for him 3 or 4 or 5 years back, but that now the ball seems to be almost entirely in SFII's court. Sonic Team has been looking worse and worse in each Character Battle since '05 and frankly I can't see why a classic era Sonic game would be expected to perform better than a classic era Mega Man title in the year 2009, and so I'd be very nervous if I were a Sonic fan in the wake of that MM2... unpleasantness. On the flip side Street Fighter is more relevant at this very moment than it has been at any point this decade, Ryu has proven himself to be a dangerously independent entry that thrives in this LFFfest of a format, and then the bracket comes out and we see that SFII has drawn the most fortuitous placement since... well, since 2007 Ryu. Check out this yellow brick road to the 5th round: an easy advancement over Castlevania/Civ, an easy win against a Sonic that gets early 90s platformer'd to death by Mario 3, then a perfect chance to capitalize on the Mario 3/SMW/MM3 split (assuming FF1 spoils FF4's chances), and THEN a chance to play the sore thumb spoiler once again in a totally insane Zelda 1/Mario 1/Mario 3 battle. I'll give you that SFII isn't honestly all that strong, but I think that Ryu '07 and Kirby '08 proved that in this format, you don't need to be as long as you continue to draw the right opponents. So that's what my bracket is banking on, and it all starts with a convincing win over Sonic 1! All that's left is to take a look at this match pic before picking my percents. Hm... Civ just fades into the background, what a nothing of a pic, CV is too mashed together, I love Ryu and Ken in their poses with the classic SFII logo, but I have to admit what catches the eye here is that large and in charge Sonic. And since its best chance in this one is to play up the "Sonic vs Ryu" angle, I'm going to have to give S1 a little bit more credit than I'd been planning. Let's go with, oh say - Street Fighter 2 - 36.76% - Sonic the Hedgehog - 33.23% - Castlevania III - 19.79% - Civilization - 10.13% Yeah, that seems about right. Could definitely stand to see SF2 blow it out of the water by even more though! (PS - Alright, so actually I got cold feet and only took SF2 to make the 4th round this year, not the semi-finals. I still maintain that's one of the smartest upset routes you could have gone with though!) ### Next Day Review I'm still having a tough time wrapping my mind around that result yesterday. Going purely by percentage, SFII had a very respectable day, and in a direct comparison to Castlevania I'd have said it did exceptionally well. But not only did it not win the day outright, it lost in a worse than Ulti blowout! How could Sonic post a performance like that after looking like junk the past two seasons? The most reasonable explanation would seem to be that because no one actually cares about these old games (except maybe Mario 1/3/Zelda/Tetris), anything with strong name/series recognition is going to rock faces. (In that case though, what the heck happened to MM2?) If that's correct, then SFII and its more "hardcore" (maybe?) fanbase should still be fine, since Mario is going to be arriving to suck up all of that apathy vote next round. But if on the other hand this is a case of people actually really loving 2D Sonic and only anti-voting the character because his last generation of games has been so poor, then... well, let's just say it's going to be a long season for people like yo and myself, who made a point of betting against Sonic wherever possible in our brackets. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3450&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=5) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=5) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## SimCity vs Super Mario Bros. 3 vs Tecmo Super Bowl vs Secret of Monkey Island 2009 _source: SimCity vs Super Mario Bros. 3 vs Tecmo Super Bowl vs Secret of Monkey Island 2009 (revid 88461)_ ## Results **Round One** Sunday, April 12th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 1989-1991 - **Match \#:** 6 - **Match Date:** Sunday, April 12th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Mario Bros. 3 - 71.44% SimCity - 11.20% Secret of Monkey Island - 8.62% Tecmo Super Bowl - 8.51% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Mario 3 first place (2pts) - 87.41% Mario 3 second place (1pt) - 9.61% Monkey Island second place (2pts) - 17.22% Monkey Island first place (1pt) - 1.75% - **Advancing Prediction:** Super Mario Bros. 3 - 97.02% (37,155) Secret of Monkey Island - 18.97% (7,265) Even though this match had a decent fight for second place, this was all about witnessing the raw power of Mario 3. We may never again see a perfect storm of strength as circumstance as we did here, because breaking 75% in a fourway poll should be nearly impossible. To do this, you need to be against three entrants that you're able to hold around 12% all at the same time. It's tough to appreciate what Mario 3 did here given it lost to Mario World twice and barely survived losing to it thrice, but breaking 75% in a fourway poll is insane. But in fairness, Mario did this because the competition flat-out sucked. Not one of these games deserved to even make the contest, let alone place and get to the second round. But one of them had to pull it off, and oddly enough this was the perfect spot for those freaks who always help Guybrush get up to 12%. SimCity was actually the consensus the score second place here due to everyone having played it at one point or another, and it played its part early on. It more or less dominated the poll for three hours (as well as one can "dominate" while first place is on its way to scoring 75%, anyway) and built up a 300 vote lead. But then the Europe block kicked in, and SimCity's entire lead disappeared in about two hours before Monkey Island clinched the match with the morning vote. It was up for good by the time SimCity started stalling again, but a more accurate description is Mario 3 destroyed the poll so easily that no one could really make a move here, a la Duck Hunt losing to Ninja Gaiden. Monkey Island finally winning one was good and all, but let's be serious. It would probably lose to all but a handful of games in this bracket. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Turning our attention to this Mario 3 "battle", I just have to say one thing. As much as I've pushed for a return to 1v1s and bad mouthed SB for withholding them from us, matches like this sure do keep the first two rounds interesting. I mean sure, the fact that either SimCity, Monkey Island, or Tecmo Bowl has to "win" a match is a total joke, but it should still be fun to watch these three featherweights smack each other with pillows for 24 hours while Mario 3 goes on what I would almost guarantee will be a record-setting tear. As to which of these hilarious weaklings has the upper hand, well, that's where things get a little tricky. Let's start by eliminating Tecmo Bowl. PC games in general and older PCs games in particular are so vastly underplayed/underappreciated at this site that I would actually take Tecmo over either of these guys without thinking twice if this were a straight up 1v1. But it's not, and to make matters worse TB has drawn the worst possible opponent- I can't imagine there is any game from the NES/SNES era who would lay a worse beatdown on a old casual Nintendo favorite (not even LttP!). That's why I think the favorite going into this one has to be SimCity. Yes it's old and a PC game, but it's also universally played and well known the world over as the game that launched millions of millions of sales for the whole line of Sim\_\_\_/The Sims/etc games. Plus it has the added advantage of being released on the SNES where I think it did decently. The last contender is Monkey Island, which I automatically dismissed when filling out my initial bracket and am now regretting. I assumed that, like the Tales Of... series, Monkey Island/Guybrush was one of those things with an incredibly dedicated fanbase that was always going to get it into brackets but would never amount to anything when the actual polls arrived. Looking back at it now though, Guybrush seems like a lock to put up 9-13% of the vote regardless of competition, and considering how badly Mario is going to wreck this balance, that could very well be enough to advance. I think it should be pretty close between Monkey Island and SimCity in America, but now I wish I'd bothered to research how those two games sold outside of this continent, because whichever has the international edge is probably going to take this. Hmm... well too late now, so I'll just stick with my original idea that SimCity was big the world over and say: - Super Mario Bros. 3 - 74% - SimCity - 11% - Secret of Monkey Island - 8% - Tecmo Super Bowl - 7% That looks like something I have 0 confidence in. Ahhhhhh! ### Next Day Review Well like I said, it's a shame I wasn't aware that Monkey Island was liked in Europe, otherwise I would probably have called this match correctly. But, come on, we just witnessed a poll where something on the same level of strength as Guybrush Threepwood advanced into the next round- it's hard to beat yourself up too much over a result like that no matter how you called it. Positive notes: not only did Mario 3 smash the record for biggest win, it has also almost single handedly (considering the pathetic contributions of its opponents) outdrawn yesterday's Sonic/SFII match by about 6500 votes, and is only come about 1000 short of matching Zelda/Metroid as the most popular of the year so far. This game is a monster, and so to answer transience's question: after a performance like this, yes, I'm still liking my picks of SFII to R4 and Mario 3 to R6. They call this man the King of SFF for a reason! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3451&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=6) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=6) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Battletoads vs Final Fantasy vs Prince of Persia vs Super Mario World 2009 _source: Battletoads vs Final Fantasy vs Prince of Persia vs Super Mario World 2009 (revid 65240)_ ## Results **Round One** Monday, April 13th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 1989-1991 - **Match \#:** 7 - **Match Date:** Monday, April 13th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Mario World - 42.41% Final Fantasy - 34.65% Battletoads - 12.35% Prince of Persia - 10.50% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** SMW first place (2pts) - 43.55% SMW second place (1pt) - 42.59% FF second place (2pts) - 36.29% FF first place (1pt) - 46.22% - **Advancing Prediction:** Super Mario World - 86.14% (32,988) Final Fantasy - 82.51% (31,598) Rarely do I care about the losers in 4way matches, but they were notable here. Though Prince of Persia might not end up last in the stats, I'm calling it this contest's Tanner anyway. It barely broke 3.5% in a four-way poll, which is pretty legendary in the futility department. Did anyone even know this game existed before this bracket? I figured it was a PS2 series or something. It surely performed like a game no one knew about, that's for sure. The other loser of note was obviously Battletoads. Its votes didn't matter or anything, but to date, the pre-planned 4chan Battletoads rally is the only contest match Bacon has ever made a topic about. Not Mario 3's mysterious 50 vote update. Not Crono's final hour against Vincent. Not even Liquid's final update against Alucard. But Bacon will be damned if he doesn't tell us how 4chan's rally helped Battletoads lose by 31,000 votes instead of 34,000 votes. Could Battletoads have been this contest's L-Block? Who knows, it was put into an impossible match at the beginning and had no time to bandwagon. Final Fantasy and Mario are almost rally-proof, and all 4chan really did was inflate the final vote total. Speaking of Mario World and Final Fantasy, this was about as ho-hum as a match gets. Final Fantasy broke 40% on Mario 3 in 2004, and it got something like 45% on Super Mario World here. This match did nothing to stem the growing round 3 Final Fantasy 4 \> Mario World hype given how strong Mario 3 looked to this point, though if anything this match made FF1 look like a total monster capable of competing with FF4 outright. The Mario World that finished this contest was a whole different animal from where it began, because there was no reason to think World could get close to 3 based on the first round. Letting Final Fantasy break 45% on you is pretty bad, even if it was clear voters were giving extra respect to the first game in a series. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction we're heading into what's sure to be the new \#1 of '09 once it's all said and done. Hopefully soon we'll be reaching back into that 130k range where the last two character battle have been most comfortable! As for the positioning, SMW \> FF1 \> BT \> PoP might as well be set in stone, for the reasons my fellow Crewmates have done a fine job of touching on: Mario put up 60 on FF five years back and World would probably do about the same today, BT shouldn't be worth anything yet it was rallied to 22% and a win over FF in that 4chan'd poll, and PoP's only hope of doing something notable would be if it finished last in the x-stats this season. Which it just might have a shot at, considering how it's sure to be way weaker than Sands of Time, which in turn is probably a decent bit weaker than the Prince himself, which is pretty sad considering how he's only barely worth seeing in character battles. So since all the important topics have been covered, let's just take a look at this match pic. Oh good heavens, poor Prince! The text is too tiny to make out, plus the game's only chance was to trick people into thinking it was Sands of Time (like Ryu Hababusa pulled off a few days back), and that has 0% effective rate now that the characters look like lego men. As if that weren't bad enough, all three other games earned perfect pics for themselves! Yoshi appears in full on LUEshi/box art glory, Battletoads gets an image which probably plays into its internet meme perfectly (I say probably because I still have no idea what the meme actually is, although given the source I'm going to just assume that ignorance is bliss), and FF get to sport the full on 8-Bit Theater effect that served it so well against Mario 3. Given these looks I've got no choice but to lower Persia under 10 while giving BT enough benefit of the doubt for it to score something in the low teens. The toad's NES appeal probably does enough to lower Mario a little bit from the 60/40 it would lay on FF otherwise, and that leaves us with... - Super Mario World - 43.55% - Final Fantasy - 33.17% - Battletoads - 14.08% - Prince of Persia - 9.20% Hmm. Feeling pretty good about that! ### Next Day Review Hey hey, 135k votes for this one- that's more like it! That pounds the old mark (Zelda/Metroid) for this year by a full 17k and hopefully signals that people are going to be involved with this Contest site-wide from here out, now that the oldest and lowliest of the bottom feeders have been weeded out. If you want impressive votals, always schedule a Final Fantasy vs Zelda/Mario match, that's my motto. Speaking of which, it's looking like Mario put up ~56% on FF directly- a slight underperformance for Mario based on my guess, but it doesn't really tell us too much either way, especially not with all the (presumably) SMW votes that were sucked up by those late-night 4chan rallies. I'm still of the opinion that FF1 is going to hold up better than most expect next round, but yeah, not all that much to go on from this result. All we can really do is to give three cheers to PoP for keeping the day interesting with its run at the title of "weakest entrant of all time"! Speaking of that epic R2 FF1/FF4 clash... well, let me clarify. I'm sure it's not going to be an "epic" in the traditional sense, as neither are powerhouses and like most SFF matches whatever leads after 10/15 minutes will almost certainly sail on to a win, BUT, it becomes epic just because so much is riding on that result. If 1 or 4 is clearly superior to the other, the winner gets handed probably the easiest road to Round Five in Contest history thanks to the Nintendo-rific upper half of this bracket. Let's see if tonight's result will help indicate which of the two is going to have the upper hand! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3452&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=7) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=7) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Crystalis vs Final Fantasy IV vs Mega Man 3 vs River City Ransom 2009 _source: Crystalis vs Final Fantasy IV vs Mega Man 3 vs River City Ransom 2009 (revid 65241)_ ## Results **Round One** Tuesday, April 14th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 1989-1991 - **Match \#:** 8 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, April 14th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy IV - 47.70% Mega Man 3 - 33.76% River City Ransom - 10.50% Crystalis - 8.09% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** FF4 first place (2pts) - 68.03% FF4 second place (1pt) - 24.16% MM3 second place (2pts) - 62.20% MM3 first place (1pt) - 26.97% - **Advancing Prediction:** Final Fantasy IV - 92.19% (35,305) Mega Man 3 - 89.17% (34,149) This was about as ho-hum obvious as a match could possibly get, and it didn't tell us much of anything unless you wanted to make a bunch of FF1 vs FF4 comparisons and give Mega Man 3 some hope for future rounds. Or more specifically, delude yourself into thinking Mega Man 2 could still beat Tetris. Though in fairness, I'm sure if you did something weird like put FF4 as 55% of FF1's 2004 strength, then assume Tetris wasn't SFFd that year, you could probably get Mega Man 2 \> Tetris. Not like it matters, since this was decided in due time. Worth noting here is the FF1 \> FF4 hype more or less died here. Scoring 50% in a fourway poll is not the easiest task, and it would take some insane SFF from here to get FF1 ahead. Thankfully, this was all decided in round 2. Mega Man also had a decent enough performance for this one round, though this shut the door on some of the crazy talk of FF4 and 1 splitting badly enough to sneak Mega Man 3 into second place. This was impossible. I can't make much more out of such a predictable match, so I'll just whine about Crystalis. Crystalis is the best game none of you have played yet. Any random idiot can access NES games by now, so get to it! It truly is a masterpiece, and it deserved much better than a potential last place X-stats finish. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction I'm having a very time deciding where to go with my percentages on this one, and it's actually because of the bottom two games. I'm almost certain that one of them is going to tank horribly and perhaps even challenge PoP's new mark, but I just can't decide which. Crystalis would seem the natural choice given that it's going to be RPG-smashed by an old school FF title, but surely it at least has a hardcore fanbase that isn't going to abandon it for anything? Sure it will be super small, but I'd think it would have to be big enough to save it from a PoPing. So maybe RCR is the better choice- after all, it got absolutely trampled by Pong, a game that we now realize is extremely bad fodder itself. Guess I'll just have to pick them both to do "very bad" but not "super bad" and hope for the best. As regards MM3, bah... I actually picked it to win here in my initial gut bracket, figuring this would be an up year for MM and that FF4 would lose a small percentage to Crystalis. After MM2's bomb I'm very glad I flip flopped on that one, but even so I'm not entirely sold on FF4. I've just got this feeling that old Mega Man couldn't possibly be as weak as Pong made it look, especially in light of Sonic's good showing, and so I'm glad that this time around MM isn't looking at a massive pic disadvantage. In fact, it actually dominates this pic- RCR looks like total junk, Cry I guess catches the eye a little but is so unrecognizable that I doubt it matters, and I don't think that FF4 is going to blast this poll like people are talking, not with it sporting Amano art (or something similar) like that. That's kind of old fashioned look always stings FF characters, and I'm banking on tonight not being an exception. So with MM looking stylin' I think it manages to hold that old and washed out looking FF under 50% and win back at least a small token of respect for the classic series. I'll go with... - Final Fantasy IV - 49.92% - Mega Man 3 - 34.36% - River City Ransom - 8.39% - Crystalis - 7.32% Hm. Seems pretty solid! ### Next Day Review Alright, so FF4 ended up doing a touch better than I called for, finishing a little bit over 50. HOWEVER, check out these vote totals: - FF1 - 49958 - FF4 - 55555 (with 3 updates left to go) Now obviously people weren't as excited to vote in a match without Mario/massive Battletoad rallying and that could have limited FF4's potential somewhat, but still, I'm loving how many voters were attracted like flies to the "Final Fantasy" name. All signs appear to be pointing to a very close SFF-fest between that series come R2, and so I'm still holding out hope for my Mega Man upset. Whooo! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3453&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=8) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=8) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Gunstar Heroes vs Sonic the Hedgehog 3 vs Super Mario Kart vs Super Metroid 2009 _source: Gunstar Heroes vs Sonic the Hedgehog 3 vs Super Mario Kart vs Super Metroid 2009 (revid 65242)_ ## Results **Round One** Wednesday, April 15th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 1992-1994 - **Match \#:** 9 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, April 15th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Metroid - 34.15% Sonic the Hedgehog 3 - 32.64% Super Mario Kart - 26.35% Gunstar Heroes - 6.76% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Super Metroid first place (2pts) - 34.58% Super Metroid second place (1pt) - 41.16% Super Mario Kart second place (2pts) - 32.70% Super Mario Kart first place (1pt) - 44.01% - **Advancing Prediction:** Super Metroid - 75.74% (29,005) Super Mario Kart - 76.71% (29,377) Now THIS was a match. But before delving into the obvious, Sonic 3 deserves a mention for how badly it bombed here. A lot of people expected Sonic 3 to place in a match or two, and perhaps be the strongest of the three Genesis Sonic games this contest. Knuckles is the fan favorite of the series, and Sonic 3 always does well in favorite Sonic polls and board contests. But when Sonic 3 was put into its very first match, it sucked. There's no way of sugarcoating this. Two SNES games clearly splitting votes each broke 35%. That's embarrassing if you're expected to be strong, and this in turn made Street Fighter 2 and Sonic 1 look like complete crap. As for the part of this match that mattered, it was a barn-burner softened only by the format. With both games guaranteed to advance no matter what, the typical tension seen in close matches wasn't really there. In fact early on, there was nothing happening here at all. Super Metroid built up a 600 vote lead on Mario Kart overnight, and all the chatter about this match was how badly Sonic 3 was sucking it up. The match was close, but Super Metroid didn't exactly look uncomfortable. Then the dead night and morning votes hit, and it was on. Mario Kart chipped away at Super Metroid's lead all the way until the DSV (during school vote) started, and pushed Super Metroid's lead below 200. Super Metroid recovered during this time, but the game winning the morning vote usually catches fire during the after school vote, to the tune of swinging a couple thousand votes sometimes. Except this time, something really weird happened. Super Metroid looked like it would recover and easily win the DSV, but it was actually Mario Kart that made a push here. Once Metroid pushed its lead to 250, Mario Kart pushed back and used the DSV to get the lead down to 0. With winning the morning vote and DSV, it looked like Mario Kart would rock the entirety of the day vote and win this going away. But nope, this match was completely backwards. It was actually Super Metroid rocking the ASV, and it slowly built its lead back up to 270. It looked like Super Metroid had the match won here, but... nope. The second half of the very ASV Metroid was winning went in Mario Kat's favor, and it back to even by 6. This was about the weirdest close match ever, with trends going totally backwards from conventional wisdom. Metroid only won half the night, lost the dead hours and morning vote, blew the DSV, then... won the first half of the ASV? Before Mario Kart took the ASV's second half? Really, really strange. Metroid flew out to a 100 vote lead from here, but Mario Kart again came storming back to even things. The match stayed virtually deadlocked within 50 votes for a couple hours, but then the evening vote hit and Metroid made yet another move. It pushed itself out to a 250 vote lead by 11, and given how easily Metroid got its initial lead out to 600, it finally looked like this match was over. Yet inexplicably, Mario Kart won the final hour by 100 votes. Super Metroid won the match on paper, but this would be one hell of a 1v1 match after all the nonsense these two pulled on each other. There were of course a lot of cheating accusations, and given Bacon's topic during Battletoads of all things, we all expected a word from him. But nope. Nothing. Either this was legit, or Bacon doesn't care about telling us the numbers are or are not legit for every close match. I'm leaning toward the latter, though I've been told several times in private cheating is next to impossible these days. I'd love to believe this, but that Mario 3/Zelda 1 50 vote spike makes you wonder. This was a wonderful match that would have been a perfect 1v1 duel, but we'll take what we can get in a contest devoid of successful comeback attempts. As for what this tells us, Nintendo games are just whacky. There's no explanation for how some games split 80-20, but others go 50-50. I also think this cemented Super Mario Kart's status as the strongest Mario Kart title, though I think some might argue in 64's favor there. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction it seems like just yesterday we were excited because we were finally going be be seeing a match between two games of at least respectable strength- but now we're got three! I agree with my Crewmates in predicting that this will be the best battle of the Contest so far (then again I'm not sure that's saying all that much), and I'm also going to agree with them in estimating that the final order will be Metroid \> Sonic \> Kart \> GH. The difference is, I think it will be even more hotly contested than most are thinking! Why's that? Well firstly because Sonic really, really impressed me against SFII a couple days back. Now I know everyone wants to point to the SMW result and say "look what happens when Nintendo shows up!", but that's the same kind of '04 logic that had Metroid dead to rights with Zelda involved, and look how that turned out. Even with Samus and Mario featured prominently in the pic, I still wouldn't be at all surprised if Sonic pulled out first place in this one, and except him to run pretty close to Samus all day long in any case. As for Metroid, I have immense faith in this series, and in this title particularly. Even with it having to share the SNES with Kart, I think the genres and fanbases are different enough to allow both to perform closer to their potential than you would imagine in an SFF match. All three should remain pretty close, but I don't see SM ever being in serious danger of not pulling out the win here. As for Kart... I've got to admit, it's hard to get over the mental block imposed by that yoblazer-destroying loss to Mega Man. The series still has huge name appeal and a great casual presence, but I don't think its all that well suited to a 4-way format like this where you needed a large and dedicated fanbase in order to survive close matches. Or at least, it COULD be well suited if there was some way for it to avoid Nintendo's heavy hitters for a while, but with a bracket this N-packed that was never going to be a real possibility. And as for Gunstar, uhhh... thanks for playing! It's got some strong supporters that should keep it well out of that PoP/Crystalis realm, and I might even consider it to hit the double digits as a sneaky upset pick, but with the Genesis-dominating Sonic involved? Sorry, 7% is about the most that can reasonably be expected. With all that in mind, here are my predictions: - Super Metroid - 34.09% - Sonic the Hedgehog 3 - 31.76% - Super Mario Kart - 26.95% - Gunstar Heroes - 7.20% Kind of weird how we finally hit a legitimately debatable match and all of a sudden everyone pulls back into their comfortable shell and avoids going for any kind of upset. Except for our savior Ed Bellis! ### Next Day Review What an awesome match today! Even though I gave SMK enough credit to say it'd be able to keep it pretty close, I would never in 100 years have predicted that the two SNES games would be able to eat up 70+% of the vote in this match... and even if you'd told me that I would still have assumed that Metroid was at least 55/45ing the Kart entry. Don't get me wrong, I love the Kart series and have always thought that at least MK64 would have some decent potential in a Contest, but as I explained yesterday I just didn't feel the 4way format was well-suited to MK. Very pleased to see myself proven wrong here, especially since it means Sonic is out of the mix and thus as long as Super Met doesn't get as SFF-crushed by LttP as SMK (something I feel pretty good about), my crazy Metroid to R3 pick is going to be sitting pretty! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3454&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=9) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=9) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Donkey Kong Country vs Doom vs Streets of Rage II vs The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past 2009 _source: Donkey Kong Country vs Doom vs Streets of Rage II vs The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past 2009 (revid 88468)_ ## Results **Round One** Thursday, April 16th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 1992-1994 - **Match \#:** 10 - **Match Date:** Thursday, April 16th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: A Link to the Past - 58.42% Doom - 18.89% Donkey Kong Country - 15.11% Streets of Rage II - 7.61% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** LttP first place (2pts) - 57.19% LttP second place (1pt) - 32.80% DKC second place (2pts) - 30.79% DKC first place (1pt) - 15.92% - **Advancing Prediction:** Link to the Past - 89.99% (34,463) Donkey Kong Country - 46.71% (17,888) The conventional wisdom for this match was obvious: Zelda was supposed to SFF Donkey Kong to hell and back -- remember in 2004, Donkey Kong scored 13% on Zelda 1 and there was no reason to believe this match would be much different -- and Doom was supposed to win second place by default. Obviously, only half of this happened. Donkey Kong Country went out and scored 25% on Zelda. Better than 13%, but still an SFF beating. The problem here obviously is that while Donkey Kong Country more or less sucked, Doom sucked worse. Donkey Kong quite literally tried choking this match away twice, and Doom could not capitalize despite being in the perfect situation to win. I could give credit to DK for blowing leads of 460 and 300 but still surviving with the ASV, but... no. DK choked (as usual), Doom just choked worse. A lot of casual shooters underperformed in this contest, but Doom perhaps disappointed us the most. You'll be hard-pressed to find a contest entrant blow a better opportunity than this one. Beating an SFFd Donkey Kong with nothing standing in your way is just bad, and a long way off from its 2004 days. Not that beating EarthBound and getting blown out by FF6 is any accomplishment, but it still should have been stronger than an SFFd Donkey Kong. DK was the very pioneer of SFF. Even though DK got its brains beaten in by Zelda, this match helped contribute to a growing trend of leeching not skewing the results as much as we thought. This was supposed to be an easy win for Doom, but DK won instead. Mario Kart and Super Metroid didn't split at all. Et cetera. It's almost like natural strength played as big a part as leeching in this contest. Who knew? ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction ...what's that you say? There's one non-SNES title that's still going to be there to rain on Super Metroid's parade next round? We'll just see about THAT! I love the DKC series, DKC2 is one of my favorite games ever, and I'm sure much of GameFAQs feels the same way. You guys must not realize that these games were HUGE sellers at the end of the console's lifespan and that everyone and their mother is going to be voting in support of- oh, wait a minute, What's your all-time favorite 2D platform game series? - Bubble Bobble 1.93% 1755 - Castlevania 14.03% 12738 - Donkey Kong Country 5.96% 5415 - Ghosts 'n Goblins 0.8% 729 - Mega Man 18.54% 16834 - Sonic the Hedgehog 15.67% 14231 - Super Mario Bros. 43.06% 39097 - TOTAL VOTES 90799 Erm, ouch! I'd been a major supporter of getting DKC2 and Diddy Kong into a bracket before this poll result came out in (I think) mid 2007, but this really crushed my hopes for the series having any kind of strength. Now granted Mario was the worst possible opponent, and it probably gets platform SFFed by MM and Sonic somewhat as well, but come ON, to get almost tripled by Castlevania? Then Diddy himself went out and laid a rotten egg last summer to put another nail in the coffin of my DKC enthusiasm. I'm still glad to see them in this bracket, but yeah, I fully expect the results to be kind of ugly. Actually I'm so far from sold on these games right now that I'm not even positive I'd be able to take either of them over Doom 1v1, which of course means that I never gave this upset any serious consideration with Zelda being in the mix. HOWEVER, I'd sure love to be proven wrong, and you could make a case for some signs pointing to the upset... Nintendo has dominated the Contest to this point, expected SFFings didn't end up happening to Metroid and SMK, and older PC games have looked flat out awful- even Monkey Island looked downright terrible despite advancing! But nay, just can't get my hopes up. Feel free to go ahead and prove me wrong though, DKC; it would certainly help my Super Metroid pick if you could manage it! Final answer: - The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 57.23% - Doom - 20.57% - Donkey Kong Country - 16.45% - Streets of Rage II - 5.75% Looks... pretty decent, I'd say! ### Next Day Review First of all, a salute to DKC and Doom for putting on such an enjoyable show for us today. I figured DK would get off to a strong start thanks to the board and the early lead didn't surprise me, but I was shocked when it continued to hold up pretty well against Zelda all the way through the opening hour. Still, DK's track record beyond the opening hours is pretty pathetic, both as a character (see DK vs Master Chief or Vercetti) and a game (Duck Hunt), and with Zelda sure to suck up so much of the Nintendo fan vote during the day, I still gave Doom an excellent shot at completing the comeback. I didn't get to see the poll when Doom had maxed out its lead above 300, but if so I think I might very well have thrown in the towel on DKC... who knew it could manhandle the late ASV and second night vote like this? In any case, got to agree with transience- this sets up a heck of an interesting R2 Nintendo-fest, considering how we've just seen DKC hold up almost exactly as well against LttP as Super Metroid managed back in '04. And then to throw a wildcard like Mario Kart in the mix on top of it all... yikes! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3455&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=10) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=10) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Final Fantasy VI vs Mega Man X vs Phantasy Star IV vs The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening 2009 _source: Final Fantasy VI vs Mega Man X vs Phantasy Star IV vs The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening 2009 (revid 88462)_ ## Results **Round One** Friday, April 17th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 1992-1994 - **Match \#:** 11 - **Match Date:** Friday, April 17th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy VI - 41.22% Zelda: Link's Awakening - 27.29% Mega Man X - 24.57% Phantasy Star IV - 7.18% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** FF6 first place (2pts) - 55.23% FF6 second place (1pt) - 21.20% Zelda:LA second place (2pts) - 38.39% Zelda:LA first place (1pt) - 21.87% - **Advancing Prediction:** Final Fantasy VI - 76.43% (29,270) Link's Awakening - 60.26% (23,077) Certain ho-hum matches tell you nothing you didn't already know, and others throw a monkey wrench into the whole system. The overwhelming consensus for this match was FF6 \> MMX without much of a second thought thrown Zelda's way. Even after Mega Man 2 and 3 showed their early signs of weakness, Mega Man X would surely prove itself the strongest Mega Man game in the bracket and take care of business here. The true match after all was MMX vs Sonic 2 in the second round. But as we all learned by the end of this contest, Zelda is no joke. yoblazer commented in the stats topic about Link's Awakening being a million seller twice and the beacon of handheld gaming before Pokemon came along. This actually makes a lot of sense. Link's Awakening kept the Game Boy going, and helped the Game Boy Color take off and take its place in the handheld market. Basically, those of us tossing Link's Awakening aside as some piddly handheld game set to roll over were being ridiculous. And good god, were we ever. Mega Man X didn't even do that badly in the poll -- I'd even say this poll cements X's place as the strongest Mega Man game on this site -- but Link's Awakening was so much stronger it didn't matter. MMX was out of it from the opening, and for a small while Link's Awakening looked to threaten Final Fantasy 6, of all things. This died down and FF6 won first place with ease, but it was a fun five minutes. From here the poll was rather simple, with the games doing nothing but trending percentages. But the message to be gleaned here was simple: Link's Awakening was legitimate, not a fluke, and was very underestimated pre-contest. LA's dominance of Mega Man X here not only cemented its place as a strong game, but guaranteed it would make the third round as well. Sonic 2 had no chance against this monster. The other thing of note is FF6 not looking all that good here. It ends up with a respectable 40%, but it was clearly not the same game that led Link to the Past until the morning vote. It still followed its path like a good little contest entrant, but all contest long it seemed way off from its 2004 days. And it all started with Link's Awakening opening our eyes to a new legitimate game in our midst. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction So after witnessing two of the five closest wire-to-wire matches in Contest history back to back, it's time to settle in for what might very well be the third historically close battle in a row! With the way Kefka and the CT crew had been fading and fading pre-CTDS I was all set to bet against FF6 the next time a Game Contest rolled around, but nah, can't see it being in any kind of danger against competition of this caliber. And Phantasy Star frankly isn't worth talking about. But as for MMX vs LA... my oh my. After a long and bitter internal struggle I ended up going with MMX in my bracket, and here's why: \- LA isn't an RPG, but I still feel that the Zeldas of this period share much of the same fanbase as FF6. with PS4 also taking a tiny bite out of the RPG pie, MMX is the one with the best chance to play the role of sore thumb and benefit from the competition \- MMX did a very impressive job of hanging tight with Mario during all the Nintendo-filled matches last year, including beating down Zelda convincingly in that 2nd round match featuring Mudkip \- as a character, MMX proved he's just as well-liked as classic MM last season (which agreed with that favorite MM series poll that's often cited), so I have no trouble believing that MMX the game is going to be just as strong as MM2 or 3, and could perhaps perform even a little better \- lower tier Zeldas probably need to count on the voters being apathetic about the other options so that they can franchise-vote their way to victory. in a poll featuring (arguably) the most beloved Mega Man title and (arguably) the second most beloved Final Fantasy, along with another series with a very small but (probably) passionate number of fans, there might not be enough "who cares" votes to save Zelda's bacon So those were my thoughts heading into the season. HOWEVER, everything since then has gone against my original prediction- Nintendo's been a beast all around, MM hasn't impressed while both Zeldas have scored very nice blowouts for themselves... And so I was all set to pick against my bracket for the first time in '09 until I saw the match pic. Heck yeah, X is rocking one of his coolest outfits ever while Link looks flat out goofy! Plus PS got some of the least-appealing artwork I've seen and FF6 also underwhelms, so MM gets to dominate the front page all the more. As a result I've flip-flopped back to my bracket, and am going to say: - Final Fantasy VI - 45.10% - Mega Man X - 23.54% - The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening - 23.39% - Phantasy Star IV - 7.97% Fight, Mega Man! For everlasting something or other! ### Next Day Review Well, let's see here. I predicted MMX to put up 34% directly on FF6, but instead it's going to end up at... 38%. Whoo, nice work Mega Man! Now if only that "4th tier, handheld, don't worry about it" Zelda game hadn't gone and scored an astonishing 44% I'd be sitting pretty. Ever since it squeezed past the 40 mark people are trying to spin this as "not so bad" for FF6, but sorry, I don't buy it. PS4 was super-pathetic and the other two options are very heavily Nintendo- this was an ideal position for what was supposed to be the \#2 entry in the 2nd most popular series on this site, yet it failed to capitalize whatsoever. Everyone in Stats has been jumping on Ulti for claiming showings like this indicate that Ocarina is going to have the upper hand heading into the Final, but seriously, if FFX and FF8 can't impress me way more than 6 did today I'm also going to start having doubts about FF. Anyways, the sad thing about 6's underperformance today is that it doesn't even matter- regardless of what happened, bracket placement has already determined that it will go into the LttP rematch as a heavy favorite (thanks to Metroid and LA tagging along) but will gets its brains bashed once it takes the next step (thanks to FF7 and CT tagging along). This is why you need to take transience and HaR's advice regarding bracket placement, SB! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3456&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=11) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=11) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Mortal Kombat II vs Secret of Mana vs Shining Force II vs Sonic the Hedgehog 2 2009 _source: Mortal Kombat II vs Secret of Mana vs Shining Force II vs Sonic the Hedgehog 2 2009 (revid 65245)_ ## Results **Round One** Saturday, April 18th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 1992-1994 - **Match \#:** 12 - **Match Date:** Saturday, April 18th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - 42.24% Mortal Kombat II - 29.56% Secret of Mana - 19.51% Shining Force II - 8.42% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Sonic 2 first place (2pts) - 32.34% Sonic 2 second place (1pt) - 42.94% MK II second place (2pts) - 30.33% MK II first place (1pt) - 46.54% - **Advancing Prediction:** Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - 75.28% (28,829) Mortal Kombat II - 76.87% (29,438) This was the first truly predictable match in the first round of this division, and it played out as such. There was minor support for a Secret of Mana upset per Chrono Trigger possibly SFFing it in 2004, and Secret of Mana was reasonably impressive in this match. At the very least, we can conclude Chrono Trigger scored a measure of SFF in 2004 on it. But in terms of the actual match, it played out as predicted from start to finish. Sonic 2 \> Mortal Kombat 2 was a mortal lock, and the only thing the games were really fighting for here was percentage and momentum. Sonic 2 may have won this particular match easily, but its performance here meant an easy loss at the hands of Link's Awakening in round 2. It needed to dominate this poll, and it simply did not. Sonic 2 was the third and final Sonic game we saw perform in this contest, and we could safely conclude the Sonic games were not up to par at all. 2 won this, but was clearly going to lose in round 2. 3 lost outright to Super Metroid/Super Mario Kart. 1, a game with a soft path to round 3, could conceivably get SFFd by Mario and also lose in round 2. Sonic games are simply not strong. That's all there is to say about it. Mortal Kombat 2 actually replaced Street Fighter 2 \[Long Subtitle\], and performed fairly well. Not too good, not too bad, and a predictable second place. It was set up for an obvious loss in round 2, but this is still good given it was a last-second replacement in the bracket. It also helped prove something we've wondered for 5 years. In the 2004 raw stats, Mortal Kombat beats Sonic 2 52-48. Here, Sonic 2 only beat Mortal Kombat 2 55-45. This isn't far from raw stat expectations per 2004. So either Sonic 2 wasn't SFFd by Mario World in 2004, or Sonic games just flat-out suck now. No sane person will still argue Sonic wasn't SFFd in 2004, so the conclusion here is obvious. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction BOLD PREDICTION: Tonight will be the least popular match of the Contest. Older games + no Mario or Zelda or Final Fantasy = incredible apathy on the part of our voters. There also seems to be quite a bit of apathy toward this match on the part of our Crewmembers, and I can understand why. Still, there are two semi-interesting benchmarks at play in this one. First, all 4 of these games participated 5 years ago (well MK1 instead of MK2 and SF1 instead of SF2, but come on, it's a horse a piece) so we'll at least see how wacky those '04 stats are and possibly get some idea which entrants have fallen off big since '04. And secondly, we witnessed a very similar match only one week back: Sonic 1 44%; SFII 36%; Civilzation 10%; Castlevania III 10%. How will these 4 compare to their counterparts? Starting from the top, I think Sonic's in for a tumble from that 44- S3's ugly nosedive has me convinced that about half of S1 was apathy voting, and since Mana ought to maintain a much higher percentage than Civ 3 did there's just going to be less percentage to go around. With SoM, I think its '04 percentage on CT will be a good mark to shoot for. On the one hand I don't feel that Sonic 2 + MK2 + SF2 is stronger than Chrono Trigger alone, but on the other SoM feels like one of those games that would have thrived in the more cult-friendly low voter turnout days of 2004, which is why I just can't justify the MK upset. Shining Force will be blasted in the face and won't matter a bit; I can't imagine it coming close to Civilzation's final percent. And as for Mortal Kombat... as little as I respect the series, I have to admit it held up quite well on FF6 back in the day, and then just last month I was shocked to learn how well Mortal Kombat vs DC Universe had sold (despite me never hearing a peep about the game on any message board or ever noticing it in the Top FAQs). Between that and having just about the perfect match pic I've got no choice but to keep MK closer to SF's number than I would have liked, which results in... - Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - 41.71% - Mortal Kombat II - 31.07% - Secret of Mana - 19.97% - Shining Force II - 7.25% Yeah, that seems alright. But here's hoping SoM puts on a fireworks display instead! ### Next Day Review I'm extremely impressed with how well Secret of Mana was able to hold up in this one- really put a scare into MKII during those Euro-dominated hours and I'll bet it could have been neck and neck all day if MK hadn't nailed such an appealing pic. Looks like SoM will end up improving by about 8% versus its score on CT; guess that game was its perfect poison after all! As for my BOLD PREDICTION from last night, bam, I hit it right on the head! This is going to be the least popular match of the year by a full 3 thousand votes, which is frankly even more pathetic than the lowball estimate I pegged it for. Speaking of pathetic, what the junk is going on here, Sonic?! After throwing together some quick math, check out the result you'd get from setting Sonic 1 = Sonic 2: - Street Fighter II - 49.94% - Mortal Kombat II - 50.06% Nooooooooooooooo! Yeah, I wouldn't have bought into that result EVER, let alone only a couple months after SF4 sold (almost) a million overnight and is still going strong. Which means something wonky must have happened in both those matches, but I'm not even going to try to understand it... Let's just sit back and watch SF regain our respect while Sonic withers under Mario's gaze next round, then see both Sonic and MK reduced to ash beneath Zelda. All will once again be right with the world shortly! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3457&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=12) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=12) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Donkey Kong Country 2 vs GoldenEye 007 vs Resident Evil 2 vs Super Mario RPG 2009 _source: Donkey Kong Country 2 vs GoldenEye 007 vs Resident Evil 2 vs Super Mario RPG 2009 (revid 65247)_ ## Results **Round One** Sunday, April 19th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 1995-1997 - **Match \#:** 13 - **Match Date:** Sunday, April 19th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** GoldenEye 007 - 32.81% Super Mario RPG - 26.81% Resident Evil 2 - 23.11% Donkey Kong Country 2 - 17.47% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** GoldenEye first place (2pts) - 65.15% GoldenEye second place (1pt) - 17.95% SMRPG second place (2pts) - 32.97% SMRPG first place (1pt) - 15.24% - **Advancing Prediction:** GoldenEye 007 - 83.10% (31,824) Super Mario RPG - 48.21% (18,463) First and foremost, *this* was a hyped rally tournament winner? I understand DKC2 was SFFd by Mario RPG here, but my goodness. Some people literally hyped this game's strength for five years in the stats topic. Kind of a dud. As for the games with strength, this was a fairly debated match. Goldeneye \> Mario RPG was the consensus, but some felt Goldeneye could SFF Mario enough to get Resident Evil 2 into second place. This obviously didn't happen, and if anything Goldeneye and Mario RPG operated independently of one another. Some called Goldeneye a flop during this match, but I think Mario RPG is just really strong. This also somewhat proved Chrono Trigger SFFd Mario RPG to a degree in 2004, but I don't think anyone really denied this. Mario RPG actually cut Goldeneye several times in this match, if you look at the updates. Though RE2 lost here, I don't think this match proves it's some weak game. It did fairly well given the competition, and scored almost exactly the same % on Mario RPG that Street Fighter 2 did in 2004. RE2 vs Street Fighter 2 would probably be a really good match, but neither of them are ever beating Mario RPG. Nor should they, since Mario RPG is a vastly better game :D ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Here comes probably the best poll of the Contest so far! This is that rare kind of match that allows me to cut SB some slack on 4ways: Mario RPG would surely destroy RE2 straight up, but the later might be (just barely) independent enough to survive a Mario that's getting pulled in two directions, and if so we could be in for a heck of an entertaining next 24 hours. When the bracket first came out I had GE \> MRPG in this one and called it a no brainer, but then Fallout was replaced with DKC2 and all of a sudden things got much more interesting. Another beloved SNES classic in the mix, Resident Evil being at probably its all time high water mark thanks to 5 still burning up both the sales charts and the FAQ listings... All of a sudden RE2 jumped up to become the trendy pick here, and I liked what I saw enough to also follow that trend myself. Now though- bah, got to pick against my bracket for the first time this year! Sure DKC impressed against Zelda, but \#1 I think DKC2 (like Sonic 2) isn't going to pack quite as much punch as the original, \#2 I think the name "Mario" cripples the DKC series about twice as hard as "Zelda", and \#3 the more important trend there was Doom UTTERLY failing to capitalize on being the only non-Nintendo option in that poll. Sure Doom is a dated/dead series whereas RE is hot hot hot, but even doing 5% better than Doom probably isn't going to be enough to top Mario RPG in this situation. Prior to SMK's astounding performance I think I'd have still given RE2 the benefit of the doubt, but now we've seen what a boost having Mario dominating your match pic can give (also that title font below him looks great- nostalgia city, baby!), and when you add in how SMRPG is the only option here for Square voters, I think it's still got to be the favorite. Speaking of the match pic, ugh, what's with those horrible colors for DKC2? And as for Goldeneye... look out! "Unplayable" my left foot- GE multi is still a blast, and with a sweet (and again, pretty nostalgic) picture like that, expect GE to wreck havoc on this poll! SMRPG will probably hang around in the early going while that older "whoa, my first RPG!" crowd is still up, but I'm expecting Bond to unleash a whale of a day vote one the sun rises and that slightly younger "whoa, my first 4 player multi!" crowd starts hitting the polls. Onwards to victory, GE! - GoldenEye 007 - 35.36% - Super Mario RPG - 25.30% - Resident Evil 2 - 24.29% - Donkey Kong Country 2 - 15.05% I'm lovin' it. ### Next Day Review Good showing from GE today- it's beating my prediction by a good 1/2 percent, and I had one of the loftier picks around! People are calling this a tad underwhelming in that it never was able to bury Mario RPG, but I say "bah humbug" to that; between the very powerful Mario name and the very helpful Square backing, MRPG has every reason to do wonderfully in this format... assuming its able to avoid any REAL Mario or any REAL Square RPG. That won't be the case next round, where I'm expecting GE to pull away much more convincingly, and easily sink a different highly respectable N64 opponent in the process. As for RE2, well, at least it did a better job of capitalizing on the LFF around it than Doom, but in the end this is pretty much a nail in the coffin of anything having any kind of strength outside of RE4. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3458&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=13) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=13) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Final Fantasy VII vs Mario Kart 64 vs Star Fox 64 vs Suikoden 2009 _source: Final Fantasy VII vs Mario Kart 64 vs Star Fox 64 vs Suikoden 2009 (revid 88467)_ ## Results **Round One** Monday, April 20th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 1995-1997 - **Match \#:** 14 - **Match Date:** Monday, April 20th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy VII - 56.84% Mario Kart 64 - 20.99% Star Fox 64 - 15.35% Suikoden - 6.74% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** FF7 first place (2pts) - 84.25% FF7 second place (1pt) - 6.76% MK64 second place (2pts) - 55.42% MK64 first place (1pt) - 11.34% - **Advancing Prediction:** Final Fantasy VII - 91.01% (34,853) Mario Kart 64 - 66.76% (25,566) Isn't it weird how Chrono Trigger is usually considered the cutoff point between old Square and new Square, yet FF7 was in a match before CT this contest? This was our second stupidly easy match in a row, and it was all about Final Fantasy 7 dominance. It of course had the typical bad board vote, but rose to heaven all day and scored 55% against two fairly strong games, and scored nearly 90% on Suikoden individually. It scored 85% on Suikoden 2 in 2004, so FF7 looked as strong as ever this contest. By the end of the contest, even though FF7 eventually came in second place, we saw play out the sheer dominance FF7 and Ocarina of Time have over the rest of the field. Mario Kart 64 and Star Fox 64 aren't slugs by any means, but FF7 just mauled them. In the expected round by round comparison between FF7 and Ocarina, FF7 did better in every round and looked stronger as it went along.... until the one match that mattered most. But more on that when the time comes. As for what happened other than FF7's dominance, Mario was pretty much a lock to outdo and SFF Fox here. And outdo and SFF Fox he did, predictably. That was what we knew the match would be about 2 seconds in, and there was nothing worth noting after said 2 seconds. Very few matches in this contest could be summed up in 10 words or less, but this was one of them. Moving on... ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Before we get into the (hopefully very short) writeup proper for tonight's poll, let me just briefly vent regarding bracket placement. There were 6 games that I've hyped/rally topic'd/cast constant Rally Nom votes for in the last couple years: Goldeneye, DKC2, Majora's Mask, Pokemon R/B/Y, MK64, and Star Fox 64. Can you see my problem here?! At least we've gotten a decent read on the DKC series (okay strength as long as it can avoid Mario or too much other top tier N competition), but Kart and SF are going to look like junk just because everyone who owned an N64 played plenty of both, whereas I think either would have done fantastically in an x-stat setting if sent up against FF7 1v1. And then of course I'll have no idea what to root for in MM-R/B/Y (at least I don't have to worry where my vote's going though, since my actual favorite game is ALSO in that poll). Long story short, dang you SB! Okay, getting back to it. Even if Ocarina has gained something of an advantage in their rivalry, FF7 is still going to smash this poll, naturally. I agree with transience though- there is too much hate surrounding this title for it to pull out the kind of blowout numbers that OoT or Mario 3 could muster, even assuming FF7's still a much stronger game directly. So let's say... anything under 55 would leave me very unimpressed, but if it can rocket past 61 or so that would probably cement its \#1 status for now. Between the two N64 classics, I'd have to imagine Kart is never going to be in any real trouble here. Fox is the kind of game that could be excellent in this format (especially if it would have drawn a more fadish pic), but the series is always going to fold against big time Nintendo, and Kart should be close enough to that definition. And Suikoden... ouch, talk about drawing the worst possible opponent! That should leave us with something along the lines of - Final Fantasy VII - 57.77% - Mario Kart 64 - 19.24% - Star Fox 64 - 16.18% - Suikoden - 6.81% Come ooooooooon lucky 7s! ### Next Day Review Alright, now granted I've already acknowledged that FF7 was never going to have that kind of Mario 3/OoT blowout power, and granted I've also acknowledged that MK64 matches up perfectly against this game, but STILL... the strongest game on the site never solidifying itself above 55% until the final hour, and even then just barely cracking the mark? You've got to chalk that up as disappointing, don't you? I mean, someone in Stats (forget who) did the math and if you give FF7 80% of Suikoden and Kart 60% of Star Fox (and both seem reasonable enough), FF7 would be barely managing 66% on MK64 here. And we're supposed to believe this is the same game that put up 71% on Metal Gear Solid? No sir; it's quite clear that this game, or Square in general (or both) has lost a step in the last five years- I think as long as Ocarina can demonstrate it's still at '04 levels we'll have to go back to calling a 1v1 between these two a tossup. On the plus side this poll DID manage about 127k, making it easily the second most popular this year, so at least you can't deny that the FF7 name still has massive drawing power. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3459&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=14) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=14) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Castlevania: Symphony of the Night vs Kirby Super Star vs Resident Evil vs Super Mario 64 2009 _source: Castlevania: Symphony of the Night vs Kirby Super Star vs Resident Evil vs Super Mario 64 2009 (revid 65249)_ ## Results **Round One** Tuesday, April 21st, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 1995-1997 - **Match \#:** 15 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, April 21st, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Mario 64 - 42.79% Castlevania: Symphony of the Night - 24.18% Resident Evil - 19.83% Kirby Super Star - 13.41% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Mario 64 first place (2pts) - 57.59% Mario 64 second place (1pt) - 31.04% SotN second place (2pts) - 22.53% SotN first place (1pt) - 18.14% - **Advancing Prediction:** Super Mario 64 - 88.63% (33,942) Symphony of the Night - 40.67% (15,575) The obvious first, of course. Mario 64 *dominated* this match, and clearly SFFd the hell out of Kirby. I even had Kirby getting second place in this match initially (based on Kirby's character performance), but went with Resident Evil thinking it was stronger than SOTN. Then I went with SOTN out of pure fanboyism and prayed it could hold on and win. I did not think SOTN was a clear-cut favorite for second place here, and literally only picked it because I love it. My only reasoning. As a side note, this match proved once and for all Kirby is not popular because of his games. When you're SFFd this badly by Mario, but you the character go out and beat Sonic, your appeal comes from character design and Smash Brothers. With that out of the way, we had an actual match here. Like I said before, I felt Resident Evil was a favorite for second place here. MGS clearly SFFd it in 2004, so it had a wild card value going into all this. SOTN, awesome as it is, has gotten no younger. I try not to get my fanboyism get in the way of my analysis, but I was very happy when SOTN jumped on Resident Evil early and went on to easily win the match. Sure SOTN "lost" the day vote and bled percentage to RE, but the match was never in question. RE was deserving, but I cannot deny how happy I am SOTN won this. I love that game to death, and there aren't many match results this contest I was happier about than this one. If you haven't played SOTN yet, you really should. It's arguably the best 2D game ever made. As for what this match tells us, Kirby's games are not only weak, but prone to SFF by Mario. Mario 64 is a beast, but we didn't yet know it was a potential slayer of Chrono Trigger. Resident Evil was in fact SFFd in 2004 -- not to a gigantic degree, but I wouldn't go around calling it a weak game. Both RE and RE2 performed respectably in their first round losses. And as for good ol' SOTN, it's still got some left in the tank! :D ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Now then, tonight isn't exactly the best setup of the season, but there should still be a few interesting things to watch out for. Even with a possible boost from RE5 I never gave RE much of a chance against SotN in this one, but now that I think about it some more, I guess it would at least make more sense than that absurd Jill \> Ocelot result from last year. And if RE2 could manage 23% against decent competition, maybe 1 does a better job of drawing the series vote (as DKC and Sonic seemed to do), and then perhaps... but no, Alucard has shown that SotN fans are too dedicated to lose a close match to anything not named MGS, and with THAT picture I just can't see RE overcoming this obstacle. As for Mario 64, what the heck is all this "disappointment" talk? It "only" managed 13th on the Top 100, and that was somehow a giant slap in the face- excuse me, do you realize how much top tier Mario competition it was facing in that situation? Now the other three options here aren't scrubs, but I'd be willing to bet that M64 makes them look like it. We've seen how getting Mario's face in your pic has apparently done wonders for SMK and MK64 and Mario RPG, so imagine what it will do for an ACTUAL Mario game! As for Kirby, the poor little guy draws the worst possible opponent here (aside from perhaps SMW). But, that's Meta Knight in the picture- surely that assures a TOP-TIER performance tonight, right? Okay so probably not, but even so I'd be surprised if the game gets SFF-crushed DKC2 style, as Kirby fans seem like a fairly dedicated bunch. Turning those thoughts to numbers results in Super Mario 64 - 43.43% Castlevania: Symphony of the Night - 25.26% Resident Evil - 21.03% Kirby Super Star - 10.28% Prediction on the prediction: this looks like a very bad pick in the early going of the match thanks to SotN getting a good start and then rocking the latenight vote, but come sunrise Mario and Kirby will combine to cut breathtakingly large chunks off of that percentage in order to bring it down to that 25 area. ### Next Day Review Three cheers for Mario 64! "Vastly overrated" my left eye- it goes out and tops all of our predictions without batting an eye, and that's even with Kirby holding up better than expected. Alright alright, so no one is THAT surprised about it being able to lay the smack down on lower tier titles like these three, but even so, this is the kind of very impressive performance that has me really wishing we'd have been able to see Mario 64 v Chrono Trigger in a fair matchup this season. What a shame that Yoshi's Island is going to be there to goof things up next time, and Goldeneye in the round after that. Although actually, if CT has lost a step (like FF6 apparently has), and then with FF7 punching it in the gut all day... but nah, I get ahead of myself. Regardless, as least this bracket it going to bless us with GE vs Mario 64 as good as straight up, so we do have SB to thank for that. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3460&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=15) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=15) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Chrono Trigger vs EarthBound vs Lufia II vs Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island 2009 _source: Chrono Trigger vs EarthBound vs Lufia II vs Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island 2009 (revid 68768)_ ## Results **Round One** Wednesday, April 22nd, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 1995-1997 - **Match \#:** 16 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, April 22nd, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Chrono Trigger - 49.86% SMW2: Yoshi's Island - 28.52% Earthbound - 15.62% Lufia II - 5.96% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** CT first place (2pts) - 80.14% CT second place (1pt) - 11.30% SMW2:YI second place (2pts) - 36.87% SMW2:YI first place (1pt) - 10.10% - **Advancing Prediction:** Chrono Trigger - 91.44% (35,018) Yoshi's Island - 46.97% (17,988) A ton of us EarthBound fans spammed [this poll](http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3197) all over the board, trying to convince everyone (well... probably more honest to say we were trying to convince ourselves) EarthBound had a chance at pulling off an upset here. After all, EarthBound did VERY well in that VC poll, and we've seen LFF not matter in this contest as much as we initially thought it would. So even with two fellow SNES RPGs in the poll, maybe some act of God would allow EarthBound to get second place here. Not only did this not happen, EarthBound never even got the standard early lead it tends to enjoy in matches. Yoshi's Island jumped all over it early, and cruised to a second place finish. This was a rare contest match in that it was over 3 seconds after it began, and there's really not much to talk about. We all knew Chrono Trigger \> Yoshi's Island would happen, but hyping up a miracle EarthBound upset was fun while it lasted. Even though Yoshi's Island scored an easy second place here, Chrono Trigger flat-out annihilated this poll. There was absolutely no reason to think Chrono Trigger was in trouble against Mario 64 after this match. None. After the first round, Chrono Trigger looked right at 2004 levels, possibly due to help from the DS release. This match also told us that GOTY polls, favorites polls and random polls like the VC poll are completely useless when trying to guess contest results for the real thing. We learned this for characters very quickly, but for some reason we like to latch onto those older polls for games. The quicker we pretend old polls don't exist for potential future game contests, the better. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Speaking of CT, here comes test \#1 in the post-CTDS era, and it's a test I think it will... pass! Which is maybe a tiny bit surprising, because I mean logically wouldn't this be about the worst possible situation for the game? Up against two fellow beloved, cultish SNES RPGs, at least one of which has an incredibly devoted fanbase that never fails to get itself represented (and has even pulled off a couple cool 1v1 upsets!). And with seemingly everything Mario being smoking hot right now, it almost makes you want to pull the trigger here. But, three things: \- no Mario in that match pic! well actually he's there, but if there's one thing people can agree on it's that crying baby Mario was super annoying- can't imagine that version wins over any fans - no Mario in that title! well, I guess I'm not sure about that, but SB has it listed as just SWM2: Yoshi's Island in the bracket, so maybe there won't be room to spell it all the way out, and if not that has to spell trouble - no sore thumb factor in that poll! I mean sure, YI stands out a little bit for not being an RPG, but it still shares the system with all these other options and probably has massive playership overlap with at least CT, so I can't see it STFing its way to victory Long story short I was all set to call for Yoshi giving Crono a run for his money until I saw baby Mario in a bubble, Crono with his sword out looking his DBZingest best, and Ness and friends looking totally cool for EB. (Lufia looks good as well, but its trying to copy EB's style too much which will surely only aggravate what was already going to be a bad SFF beating!) So in the end I've got to side with a more conservative: - Chrono Trigger - 48.91% - Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island - 31.20% - Earthbound - 14.56% - Lufia II - 5.32% But feel free to keep the good things coming for the Mario series, YI! ### Next Day Review Whoa nelly, was that ever an impressive performance by Chrono Trigger! Mario was able to take a small bite out of it with the ASV, but aside from that 4 hour stretch or so the game was flat out golden. I'd joked last night about how badly Mario would sting it in Europe, but not only did that not happen, CT actually shot up to its best hours of the day during that time! If those are legit post-CTDS trends (and not just Europe being incredibly apathetic about the other three options), then all of a sudden this game is legitimately scary once again- which is frankly shocking considering I've spent the last three years giggling that red sox and handful of others still considered the CT/LttP rematch "debatable"! Also a quick note of congrats to Earthbound... had it not been placed in just about the worst situation possible S/LFF-wise it seems pretty clear that it could have lead Yoshi's Island outright for the first 6 hours of this one. Now, the Day Vote was going to come around and crush its chances regardless, but still, that would have been fun to see. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3461&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=16) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=16) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Banjo-Kazooie vs Perfect Dark vs Pokémon Red/Blue/Yellow vs The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 2009 _source: Banjo-Kazooie vs Perfect Dark vs Pokémon Red/Blue/Yellow vs The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 2009 (revid 68769)_ ## Results **Round One** Thursday, April 23rd, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 1998-2000 - **Match \#:** 17 - **Match Date:** Thursday, April 23rd, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: Majora's Mask - 38.77% Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow - 32.83% Perfect Dark - 18.21% Banjo Kazooie - 10.13% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Pokemon RBY first place (2pts) - 55.44% Pokemon RBY second place (1pt) - 26.07% Zelda:MM second place (2pts) - 44.07% Zelda:MM first place (1pt) - 23.27% - **Advancing Prediction:** Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow - 81.51% (31,215) Majora's Mask - 67.34% (25,789) Banjo-Kazooie and Perfect Dark both bombed here, but this wasn't as extreme as some other bombings this contest. It was fairly expected given all the Nintendo and N64 overlap, though B-K was another games hyped for years and Perfect Dark completely collapsed based on its 2004 performance. But we'll just chalk that up to N64 LFF and move on. And by moving on, we look at Pokemon RBY's start of balling all over this contest. I personally think Majora's Mask was another of the many sickeningly overhyped games in this contest, but all things considered it didn't do that bad. A lot of people crushed it given they assumed it would easily make the second round, and in the first round it could somewhat fairly be called a bomb. Majora's Mask was the Raiden of this contest -- huge potential, but the reality was nothing close. This said, it still got an acceptable 29% second place finish, but simply ran into an absolute monster here. In a match that was expected to be close, RBY just flattened everything and propped itself right into contender for Top 10 status. There was a very set top 8 or 9 after 2004, this contest threw a big wrench into all that, and a lot of games even ended up with legit claims to "#3" status. After this very match, Pokemon RBY was one of those games. Majora's Mask might not be a top tier Zelda, but it's a Zelda nonetheless. And blowing the hell out of Zelda is no easy task. Pokemon would go on to more than prove this was no Nintendo SFF fluke either, but more on that in future rounds. On a complete side note, I argued for years that Pokemon RBY was legit, and had to argue even harder pre-contest when everyone assumed Majora's Mask would kill it before the second round LFFd it to death. Look at [this poll.](http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2739) Could it be more obvious? Everyone and their mother loved RBY; the hate started with cards and the million generations following RBY, not with RBY itself. RBY was always bound to be a beast, and it ended up being even stronger than I thought. Granted I'm a total FFT fanboy and picked it to beat RBY in round 2, but I was still right about RBY being legit. No harm done \<\_\< ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Moving on to one of the best 1v1s of the whole round! First though let me say what a pleasure it is to see the Crew having such nice things to say (and generous predictions to make) regarding my favorite game, Perfect Dark. I didn't rally for it this year in favor of trying to help GE into a good seed just because Bond has so much more potential, and its too bad we couldn't have seen a mixed bracket where a beloved game like PD would have had a chance to slide past some outdated older games, but its nice to see it represented in any case. And wow, what a great match pic! Enough of the mushy stuff, let's move on to what will hopefully be an exciting battle. In my bracket I took R/B/Y for the win here on the basis of MM having to share the poll with two other highly regarded N64 titles (plus the STF of being the only RPG), Pokemon being well suited to this format, and nostalgia. Partly though I just took it because it was a safe pick considering that MM is sure to force its way back on top in R2 (when Red will be losing the RPG sore thumb advantage for sure, and might even be decimated by having to split with another Pokemon!). So, I went with the upset, but without any kind of confidence. Then after LA scored a very easy win over MMX I gave up on this pick entirely- if a 4th tier Zelda can put on a show like that, surely a 3rd tier game like MM was a lock for the win. HOWEVER, then yesterday poped out of the clouds like a ray of sunshine for my bracket. Mario had been smoking the competition right and left, so a Mario game against three SNES RPGs was a sure formula for a franchise vote'd overperformance, right? Wrong! Maybe the voters aren't as sheepish as we often think, and R/B/Y is certainly a well loved 90s RPG with tons of nostalgia behind it... if Chrono Trigger can blast Mario, surely Pokemon can at least keep it close! What pushed me over the edge was that match pic- probably 3 of the 5 most popular Pokemon of all time up against a big purple eye and one of Link's least popular forms? This could really happen! \*pulls the trigger\* - Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow - 35.90% - Zelda: Majora's Mask - 35.64% - Perfect Dark - 20.44% - Banjo-Kazooie - 8.02% Whooooo! ### Next Day Review Good gracious, I haven't been this shocked by a match result since... well I guess you could say Snake \> Cloud and Kirby \> Sonic, but those were weird L-Blockish bandwagon kind of results that you have to just shake your head at and move on from. This appears to be a completely legit result, considering how R/B/Y is beating three of the N64's best games combined literally all by itself, and has done so with an incredibly consistent performance throughout the day. After a powerhouse Top Ten-level showing like this you'd have to make the game a lock to slide through into Round Three... but wait a minute, will there be another Pokemon option there to hinder its progress? Let's find out! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3462&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=17) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=17) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Deus Ex vs Final Fantasy Tactics vs Metal Gear Solid vs Pokémon Gold/Silver 2009 _source: Deus Ex vs Final Fantasy Tactics vs Metal Gear Solid vs Pokémon Gold/Silver 2009 (revid 67329)_ ## Results **Round One** Friday, April 24th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 1998-2000 - **Match \#:** 18 - **Match Date:** Friday, April 24th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Metal Gear Solid - 35.60% Pokemon Gold/Silver - 28.68% Final Fantasy Tactics - 28.07% Deus Ex - 7.91% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** MGS first place (2pts) - 63.57% MGS second place (1pt) - 26.19% Pokemon GS second place (2pts) - 38.42% Pokemon GS first place (1pt) - 15.31% - **Advancing Prediction:** Metal Gear Solid - 89.76% (34,374) Pokemon Gold/Silver - 53.73% (20,576) One day after Pokemon RBY went out and beasted all over Zelda's face, its younger brother got to go out and take the field. GSC's number was artificially inflated early thanks to being on one day after RBY, and it actually led Metal Gear Solid for a bit. Though MGS got killed by FF7 in 2004, that was an obvious SFF match. A lot of people guessed MGS could be a potential Top 10 game, mainly because of The List. Fad or not, The List comes through more often than not. For GSC to lead it for a few minutes was impressive, even if MGS did go on to win fairly easily. It's also worth noting GSC cut 500 votes off of MGS with the ASV, which comes into play with impending MGS/RBY duel set up by this match. The true shame here was Final Fantasy Tactics. After going dead even with MGS in 2004 and getting robbed of a win by clear vote-stuffing, a lot of people figured it could get close to MGS again and place in a couple of matches. Instead, it ran into the Pokemon buzz saw right in the first round and suffered an early exit. At least it was a legitimate early exit this time, as FFT has clearly lost a few steps in the past five years. It went from 50-50 to losing with 39%. That's no accident, and this happened a few months after the FFT port to the PSP. Not that we need many reasons to prove the PSP's lack of influence, but there's another one for you. The system flat-out does not matter, and older Final Fantasy on the whole seemed really lagging this contest. This match set up a weird MGS/RBY/GSC threesome for round two, with the true match being MGS vs RBY in round 3. But given how close GSC came to MGS early on here, it seemed like MGS was in a world of trouble once the big brother came knocking. On a total side note, why are Deus Ex fans so damn whiny? It was obviously getting last place here, but half the topics on the board this day were just people pissing and moaning about it doing badly. Don't you guys know you're on ConsoleFAQs? Get a grip. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Got to agree with the earlier comment where SB must have glanced through his records to see what were the close matches back in '04 and then gave himself a big pat on the back for setting up this R1 rematch. Unfortunately for him, the only thing we can be completely sure about is that MGS is going to be finishing ahead of FFT in this one- not only is the site not as Square-crazy as back in '03 and '04, MGS has also had three huge reasons to boost since then compared to FFT's one, or possibly none depending on your respect for handhelds. (Oh I guess the other thing we can be sure of is Deus Ex for last with something like 8-10%, but that's not really worth talking about!) The real question is, what position does Pokemon end up slotting itself into? It's a pretty exciting proposition, considering how you could make a strong case for first, second, OR third! Now, I'll agree with most of the comments I've been seeing today in that MGS and FFT are probably stronger than MM directly and that G/S/C is surely a league below R/B/Y. But what people seem to be forgetting is that in 4ways, many times the most important factor to have going for you is the Sore Thumb Factor, and tonight Pokemon's going to have that baby working overtime. Not only do MGS and FFT share a console, Pokemon is also the only non-"mature", non story-driven option out of this whole poll. I guess you could say that unlike today's battle it's not the only RPG option, but ehhh, Tactics and Gold are about as far apart as any two games can be while still getting labeled RPGs. Plus the site is still going to be swarming with Poke-fans after yesterday, and Platinum still being hot certainly helps as well. ALSO, check out that match pic- G/S/C with the major advantage of being just labeled "Pokemon" up top, which might work wonders! In short, all signs are pointing to this being a 48 hour Poke-fest up in here, and that's why even though I would still take FFT \> G/S/C 1v1 and even though I wouldn't have made this choice a couple days ago, it's time to pick against my bracket for the second time this year and say: Metal Gear Solid - 36.07% Pokemon Gold/Silver - 27.80% Final Fantasy Tactics - 27.70% Deus Ex - 8.43% Come on Poke-fever, don't let me down! ### Next Day Review Goodness me, do I ever like being right! Now granted I actually made a pretty bad pick that's going to be way off percentage-wise, and granted I get as sick as anybody about these half dozen "I can't believe people got this one wrong!" topics that go up after every match is decided, but still... I can't believe people got this wrong! Even if FFT would have been constant from '04 there's no way it could have survived that brutal Pokemon ASV (seriously, did you see that thing?), and even if it'd been a decent bit stronger than G/S/C directly there's no way the sore thumb factor wasn't going to carry it to the win. Alright, I guess I'm overstating things a bit; there was still some kind of chance that Gold would flop, but after seeing Red smash faces the day before it was just weird to see 4 Crewmembers cling to their brackets instead of going with the flow. Most importantly this result leaves poor old Majora's Mask looking much much better than it did 24 hours ago, and those opinions are only going to continue to improve next round when Red vs MGS vs MM turns into a three way dogfight! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3463&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=18) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=18) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Final Fantasy VIII vs SoulCalibur vs Starcraft vs Xenogears 2009 _source: Final Fantasy VIII vs SoulCalibur vs Starcraft vs Xenogears 2009 (revid 65253)_ ## Results **Round One** Saturday, April 25th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 1998-2000 - **Match \#:** 19 - **Match Date:** Saturday, April 25th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Starcraft - 35.13% Final Fantasy VIII - 34.69% SoulCalibur - 17.31% Xenogears - 12.99% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** FF8 first place (2pts) - 41.05% FF8 second place (1pt) - 28.26% Starcraft second place (2pts) - 28.65% Starcraft first place (1pt) - 36.55% - **Advancing Prediction:** Final Fantasy VIII - 69.31% (26,543) Starcraft - 65.20% (24,969) Of all the Add/Remove junk pre-contest, only one such change truly bothered me, and it was this one. SoulCalibur had zero business getting into this contest over the original Smash Brothers, especially given what we know now. None. Is there any doubt Smash Brothers places in this match, and possibly even threatens to take first? It would have clearly gotten Ocarina'd in the second round, but it would have stunned all the Starcraft people. Speaking of which, calling Starcraft is something I'm vastly proud of this contest. While people were out calling for another insane run due to the format, I was out calling Starcraft the most likely game to flop in this contest. People seem to forget how perfect a storm 2004 was for Starcraft, and only L-Block's run has ever been more impressive in my eyes. It was the perfect amount of vote totals, the perfect bracket placement, the perfect hype, the perfect opponents, the perfect everything. This contest? No way. For starters, "fourways are better for rallying" is a myth. Rallying in general is a myth outside of close matches late, and deciding entire matches by thousands of votes is ludicrous. There's a measure of rallying in every match. L-Block aside, people generally just vote for who they want. There's also Starcraft's opponents in 2004: Halo, Kingdom Hearts and Wind Waker are pretty hated on the internet. Against a high-selling mainstream Final Fantasy like 8? No way. And on the note of FF8, it's usually stuck behind FF7 in past polls. We've never really seen it by itself until this contest, unless you look at Squall, who has gotten quite strong these days. There's also the little-known fact that Starcraft is a really, really old PC game on a site that doesn't generally care about PC games. If we get to use the "it hasn't gotten any younger" argument with anything else, why not Starcraft? So no, I wasn't at all surprised when Final Fantasy 8 came out and killed Starcraft in this match. The people that had Starcraft potentially rallying past Ocarina in the division and winning the entire contest were especially ridiculous. Calling FF8 a potential top 10 game (a term used much too loosely in this contest) was obviously premature given future rounds, but I will never call this match an accident. The extent of the blowout was a surprise, but the blowout itself was bound to happen. Final Fantasy 8 shined with 7 removed from the picture, even with Xenogears in the poll stealing some Square votes. Frankly, Starcraft got lucky to place at all. If Smash Brothers were in this poll instead of that slug SoulCalibur like it should have been, Starcraft would have easily been pushed to third place and we would have had a "SHOCKING" contest result right in the first round. From huge 16 seed run to losing in the first round the second expectations are placed upon it. But thanks to scoring second place here almost by default, Starcraft in round 2 was allowed one final stand before its ultimate exit. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Heading into this season there were four entries that I was most excited to see take the field in this 4way format: StarCraft, Diablo II, World of WarCraft, and Half-Life (well, both HL1 and 2, but I combine them in my mind since they should be very similar). Strong yet independent titles like that are always the most enjoyable to predict, especially when a bracket is as flooded with Nintendo and Square as this one- and that's not even getting into the crazy rally potential all of these guys have! So from one perspective you could say that these 4 might be poised to make deep runs through this tourney, but looking at it another way... have you SEEN how badly the PC has been thrashed so far this year? Maybe that's a silly thing to point out given that the only PC title so far with any kind of potential strength has been Doom, but the most important computer FPS of all time going down easily to a Donkey Kong entry (that was dealing with Zelda) doesn't exactly inspire confidence. That's why despite StarCraft being something like my third favorite game, I'm expecting it to be a disappointment this season, at least relative to that magical (if fishy) 2004 run. It just seems like the '05 site shift wouldn't have done this game any favors, nor would the increased vote totals, and with SCII still a long ways off I'm not seeing much here to help it. HOWEVER, the results so far this season have left me with even less confidence in FF8! FF has just not been impressing no matter how you slice it, and this bad loss by FFT is probably the worst outing yet. I originally only took SC for the win in my bracket because of Xenogears being in the mix, but at this point I think I'd have to side with SC even if if X had been replaced with a neutral title. So yeah, I've got to go with StarCraft to take home a fairly comfortable 3-6 percentage win here just as pretty much everyone else seems to be doing. The cool thing about this poll though is that people seem to have no idea what to think about the bottom two choices. Does Xeno's 20% on FF7 mean it could hold up equally well today, like SoM did? Does Soul Cal's near-win over KH mean anything at all five years later? Personally I have no idea what to think about those two games, so I've just got them finishing about the same and will hope for the best. Which puts us at: - Starcraft - 35.67% - Final Fantasy VIII - 32.40% - Xenogears - 15.98% - Soul Calibur - 15.95% Here's hoping to see something exciting! ### Next Day Review Alrighty, well, SC underperformed in this one, no doubt about it, and there's also little doubting that FF8 has some legitimately scary strength; possibly it isn't even all that far behind FFX, to my surprise. Let's check the direct stats.... FF8 \> SC with 61%, SC \> Soul Cal with 64%, FF8 \> Xeno with 77.4%. Good heavens! I was all prepared to come in here and say "don't tear up your brackets yet; SC still pulled 30% against good competition, and with Ocarina and possibly FF9 rolling in next round this could still turn into a barn burner." But I didn't realize how far 8 had pulled away beyond those first 4 hours... okay, guess I've got to agree with the consensus in saying that 8's got 2nd place locked up next round no matter what shows up there with it. Luckily for my bracket, I advanced Half-Life and had SC going out R2 anyways due to the PC overlap- not exactly impressive to get a pick correct for all the wrong reasons, but in a bracket this wild I'll take the points any way I can get them! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3464&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=19) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=19) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Chrono Cross vs Final Fantasy IX vs Half-Life vs The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 2009 _source: Chrono Cross vs Final Fantasy IX vs Half-Life vs The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 2009 (revid 67453)_ ## Results **Round One** Sunday, April 26th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 1998-2000 - **Match \#:** 20 - **Match Date:** Sunday, April 26th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 50.25% Final Fantasy IX - 20.42% Half-Life - 19.22% Chrono Cross - 10.46% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Zelda:OoT first place (2pts) - 63.59% Zelda:OoT second place (1pt) - 28.13% FF9 second place (2pts) - 23.49% FF9 first place (1pt) - 12.43% - **Advancing Prediction:** Ocarina of Time - 91.72% (35,125) Final Fantasy IX - 35.92% (13,756) I really have to disagree about Ocarina of Time "winning" round 1 over Final Fantasy 7. The total votes for Ocarina's match were higher, but that's about it. I'd pick Mario Kart 64 over Final Fantasy 9 with ease, I'd pick Star Fox 64 over Half-Life with equal ease, and does anyone care about Suikoden versus Chrono Cross? A game no one has played against one of the worst games ever made, whoopdeedoo. At worst, it was a wash, and at best I'd score a slight win to FF7 here. As for the other games, the surprising second round results and demise of the casual shooter had people expecting a Half-Life loss even with the Square LFF here, and a loss is exactly what they got. GFNW might not be the fad it once was, but Gordon definitely dropped the ball here in a match tailor made for him to win. Even if the overlap between Final Fantasy 9 and Chrono Cross was minimal, Half-Life should have gotten second here. Instead, it never competed and further spelled out the continual disappointment of the casual shooter this contest. This even had people worrying about Half-Life 2's chances against Final Fantasy 12, but I wouldn't go that far. FF12 is way way more hated than FF9 is. The concern about casual shooters as a whole however was warranted, and why wouldn't it be? They were stinking it up left and right this contest. From a personal perspective, I was very happy with this match's results. Ocarina is the best game in the poll, Final Fantasy 9 is the second best, I have too little experience with Half-Life to comment and there are very few games I want to see suck in a poll more than Chrono Cross. And I got my wish: Chrono Cross sucking it up and scoring a distant last place. God I hate that damn game. What an annoying POS from start to finish. Good riddance. I also tire of having to defend FF9 all the time, so seeing it shut the annoying haters up for one day was glorious. What an awesome result all around. But yeah, good if you have my taste in games, boring contest match if you want exciting close comebacks and such. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Hold up a minute, is FF9 actually a lock to advance today, as my fellow Crewmates have unanimously decided? (Funny, I criticize them for sticking to their FFT-loving brackets after Pokemon shows them up yet here they've abandoned those brackets entirely after seeing a few fireworks from FF!) Let's take a closer look, shall we? To start, here are three points that hopefully we can all agree on: - Half-Life should be stronger than Gordon Freeman. mute protagonists like Link and Mr. Freeman aren't loved for their character appeal, they are supported because their games are so enjoyable- that's why Gordon flopped horribly in the earlier years when he just looked like a blob in those match pics but has become a respectable mid-carder since he started getting pics that displayed the HL logo and helped associate him with the growing franchise - HL2 is the GotY-winning game that really put this series back on the map, but if DKC1 \> DKC2 and Sonic 1 \> Sonic 2 and RE1 \> RE2 are any indication, it's pretty helpful to be the first game in a respected series. so even if HL2 is the stronger entrant, the difference is probably minimal - Ocarina is going to be gobbling up 50% of the vote here, and the hardcore Crono supporters are going to be earning CC another 10%. now maybe OoT goes a little below or climbs a bit higher (anything TOO far above 50 though and I'd be shocked; its facing 3 games with very strong fanbases and I doubt any of them cough up free percentage points like Star Fox did) and maybe CC crumbles a little and only does 8 or 9 percent, but basically this match is going to be decided within that remaining 40% Alright, so in other words, the first game to 20% wins. What kind of track record does Half-Life have then it comes to collecting 20% of the vote? Let's look back at last year. \- Gordon pulls down 28.47% against Scorpion, Big Daddy, and Balthier. pretty disappointing, especially considering Scorp beat him cleanly by 2%. clearly Freeman is awful at acting like a vote vaccum against weak competition. but when things get tougher.... - Gordon pulls down 24.49% against Vincent, Scorpion, and Falco. yikes, despite facing the guy who's expected to smash the NN, Freeman only loses 4% and turns a 2% lose to Scorp into a 5% win! clearly this HL fanbase is dedicated, but what happens when we REALLY turn up the heat? - Gordon pulls down 17.82% against Samus, Vincent, and Ganon. even with two NN-level opponents in the house, the HL fanbase not only keeps Gordon around that 20% mark, they allow him to beat Ganon outright! So yes, I'm not crazy enough to pick HL1 \> FF9 directly, but I don't have to be for it to win this one, in the same way that you wouldn't have had to take Freeman \> Ganon directly! Which is well and good, but has the Valve fanbase ever shown us they're capable of 20% outside of Gordon? \- GlaDOS pulls down exactly 20.00% against Vincent, Falco, and Wander. \- WCC pulls down 19.18% against Cloud, Snake, and Mewtwo Alright, so those last two may say more about joke entrant potential then they do the Valve fanbase, but I still maintain that Gordon himself is not a joke, that the HL will be even better supported, and that furthermore the fanbase always looks best when the competition is toughest. Tonight will be that hardest competition of all those examples, but HL is going to come through with flying colors, just you watch! DOWN GOES FF9 to the tune of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 48.64% Half-Life - 20.82% Final Fantasy IX - 20.70% Chrono Cross - 9.84% Take THAT, Crew! ### Next Day Review Ack, darn you HL! Making me look like a fool over here. The sad thing is that my writeup last night wasn't just me grasping at straws in the hopes of one-upping the rest of the Crew; I honestly expected the Valve fanbase to be more static and with HL being in a perfect position where it didn't need a very high percent, I was sure it would be quite close with FF9 in the end. Looking at it now though... actually this poll is massively popular, looking like it's going to end at around 134k which smashes the old record for the season. And HL1 did pretty well for itself when you take that into consideration- it's going to end with 20k votes, which is only a little down from the 22k Gordon pulled in that Samus/Vincent/Ganon match I was pointing back to. Ah well; on the plus side today's result makes me glad for two reasons: because I have Ocarina \> FF7, and because I have FF12 \> HL2 in a few days here! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3465&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=20) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=20) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Final Fantasy X vs Metal Gear Solid 2 vs Silent Hill 2 vs The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind 2009 _source: Final Fantasy X vs Metal Gear Solid 2 vs Silent Hill 2 vs The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind 2009 (revid 66800)_ ## Results **Round One** Monday, April 27th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 2001-2003 - **Match \#:** 21 - **Match Date:** Monday, April 27th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy X - 41.78% Metal Gear Solid 2 - 33.38% Silent Hill 2 - 12.53% The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind - 12.24% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** FF10 first place (2pts) - 55.60% FF10 second place (1pt) - 22.96% MGS2 second place (2pts) - 45.70% MGS2 first place (1pt) - 30.86% - **Advancing Prediction:** Final Fantasy X - 78.56% (30,085) Metal Gear Solid 2 - 76.56% (29,319) This is one of the most boring matches of the entire contest, and consequently one of the easiest writeups. Everything went exactly the way it was supposed to go. Final Fantasy X scored an easy first place and proved itself a contender to make the final. Metal Gear Solid 2 scored an easy second place and proved itself a good midcarder. Silent Hill 2 was fodder, and Morrowind was a distant, but decent third place. That's all there is to say, and though I'd love to ramble on about this match and make it sound good, I can't. The one thing I will say is Elder Scrolls fans came out in full force today and proved the series contest was no fluke. You guys really are some of the whiniest gamers I've ever seen on message boards. We get it, a game could be called Elder Scrolls 5: Fecal Matter and you'd eat it right up. For all I know, the games are fine. But you stay classy, TES fans. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Regarding this upcoming battle, I think the Crew has gotten way too spoiled these days. FFX vs MGS2 is exactly the kind of match you'd normally expect from the second round of a traditional 1v1 bracket, yet all I hear is shouts of "boooooring" just because we know how the top two are going to place? Even if that's the case (which I'll agree it is), this should still serve as a pretty good indicator of the legit strength of both games, considering the other two options shouldn't hurt one more than another. But yeah, 48 hours ago we'd seen FF6 underperform by something like 4%, FF7 go under expectations by 2 (and fail to double MK64 in the process), and FFT flat out bomb in what was supposed to be a competitive match, and I was just about to stick a fork in the FF series for '09. But these FF8 and FF9 showings have been way way better than I was thinking (so good in fact that they might nearly cancel each other out next round!), and so I don't see any way that X doesn't show us more of the same tonight. Normally I'd try to make a case for MGS2- I think it's stronger than 3 and the MGS series is better-suited to 4ways than FF, but the trouble is that the other two games are going to offer so little competition that a good 75% of the vote is going to be up for grabs between the two of them, turning this into more of a 1v1 that X will surely win handily. As for Morrowind, I think TES is kind of like Kart in that the whole series doesn't get a ton of love or respect but it does have two pretty strong individual games that stand to do better for themselves, and that should be enough to get it past SH. Which would give us something like: - Final Fantasy X - 40.16% - Metal Gear Solid 2 - 32.85% - The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind - 13.96% - Silent Hill 2 - 13.03% I... like it! ### Next Day Review 62.24% on MGS2 directly? Incredible! I'm sure people have been trying to spin this as "see, I knew MGS2 was the most hated of the series", but ehhh, I'm still of the opinion that MGS fans are super-dedicated and will support anything from the series, so 1/2/3/4 are probably all relatively close in strength. In which case... well, like I already said, "incredible!" Putting up 46% against legit competition like this makes me feel much much better about my bracket (which has FFX surviving and advancing all the way into the Final where it's such a popular FF choice that it helps seal 7's doom). And speaking of legit competition, let me just take a moment to congratulate Morrowind on a heck of a respectable showing here. Only allowing MGS2 61% directly, despite having to share the poll with another (dominant) RPG option? That's the kind of showing that ought to be making those of us with God of War and GTA:SA advancing in a few days here very nervous, IMO! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3466&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=21) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=21) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Grand Theft Auto: Vice City vs Kingdom Hearts vs Metroid Prime vs Paper Mario 2009 _source: Grand Theft Auto: Vice City vs Kingdom Hearts vs Metroid Prime vs Paper Mario 2009 (revid 65256)_ ## Results **Round One** Tuesday, April 28th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 2001-2003 - **Match \#:** 22 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, April 28th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Kingdom Hearts - 41.78% Metroid Prime - 33.38% Grand Theft Auto: Vice City - 12.53% Paper Mario - 12.24% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** KH first place (2pts) - 32.73% KH second place (1pt) - 32.52% Vice City second place (2pts) - 21.79% Vice City first place (1pt) - 43.83% - **Advancing Prediction:** Kingdom Hearts - 65.25% (24,988) Vice City - 65.62% (25,130) Unless I'm forgetting something, this was the first match where we had three games with a potential order for 1-2 going in. Some even thought Paper Mario had an outside chance at second place, but the main debate here was Vice City, Kingdom Hearts and Metroid Prime. 2 big PS2 games against 2 big Gamecube games made this even more confusing. Could Vice City and Kingdom Hearts stay out of each other's way and do well, or would Metroid Prime take advantage? Could Metroid avoid its typical "I get screwed by Nintendo SFF" act? There was no way to know, and this was a good match if you're not a fan of years of trends and stats making matches too predictable. We had three games that could be in any 1-2-3 order, with no real way to predict how it would end up. Save one. In 2004, Starcraft's run overrated the hell out of the top half of Division 128. If you thought SoulCalibur, Wind Waker and Halo were as strong as those stats dictate, you're nuts. Kingdom Hearts was the one game notable enough to maintain or increase in strength the last five years. Metroid Prime was likely a victim of D128 being overrated, which in all likelihood meant Kingdom Hearts \> Metroid Prime was the favored result in this match. While Vice City was in the bottom half of D128 and doesn't fall under the "hugely overrated" umbrella, Grand Theft Auto has been dropping like a rock for years and most people don't trust it anymore. Because of all this, Kingdom Hearts \> Metroid Prime was the consensus pick for this match. At least I think it was, I forget the guru stats offhand. When the match began, everything played out per our on-the-fly, lack-of-reliable-stats analysis. Kingdom Hearts flew out to an easy first place and would stay there until match's end, even in the face of another huge PS2 game. For those remaining few people who think Kingdom Hearts doesn't have some insane strength, this was more proof to the contrary. Metroid Prime also began the match in good shape, easily in second place and building a lead through the first 15 minutes. It wasn't an overbearing performance and it looked as if it was struggling to get a lead going, but this is Grand Theft Auto we're talking about. Surely, Metroid Prime would have one of those matches where it wouldn't OMG DOMINATE second place, but handily get there. But then Vice City started stalling Metroid only 30 minutes into the match, when the lead was only 150. Surely this only meant Metroid would have one of those matches where it struggles to wins second place, but is never really threatened... Whoops. Not only did Vice City come back overnight once all the Nintendo Power Hour stuff was over, but it won all the key voting blocks typically reserved for Nintendo throughout the rest of the match and ended up beating Metroid Prime fairly easily. Vice City still has strength in the face of GTA's perpetual weakening, but the real reason it won here is Metroid's continual way of embarrassing the hell out of itself in the face of other Nintendo options in a poll. Paper Mario leeched Metroid out of a win here, and it's as simple as that. Not to say Metroid Prime didn't deserve to lose -- frankly if you're a heavy hitter, you should SFF the hell out of Paper Mario and place in the poll no matter what it takes -- but it wins pretty easily without a Mario in the way. This said, it's impressive that 2 PS2 games not only collectively finished 1-2 in the poll, but collectively won the company battle this time around 63.43% - 36.57%. It's rare you see Nintendo lose so badly, but it does happen once in awhile. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Now we come to one of the cooler setups of R1. During the bracketing phase everyone seemed to be saying how even though they'd take Prime over KH directly, the Square RPG was sure to slide though thanks to a Mario game being in the way to hold Metroid back a bit. I don't necessarily buy that though... for one thing the two games appeal to very different demographics and appeared on different consoles, for two things Nintendo has been gobbling up huge % all Contest long instead of falling into pits of LFF like we thought, and for three things there ARE two games here that share a console, and they're not the Nintendo choices! Sure Vice City and Kingdom Hearts are extremely different games that probably don't have as much overlap as you'd expect from two of the PS2's best-sellers, but what I haven't seen anyone mention is that there COULD be decent overlap between KH1 and PM1. Colorful "my first RPG"-type experiences filled with iconic characters in an attempt to bring in the younger players? I think there could be some truth to that idea, which is why I decided to take the risky Prime upset in my bracket. As for VC, bah, it's hard to say. Sure it SEEMS as though GTA has fallen off the map, but Contests like this can result in some strange results, and I guess it wouldn't be impossible for GTA to have kind of a "Mario Kart effect" where even though the series is bad the games themselves can do decently. But with the way Nintendo has been slaughtering the past three weeks, and how PSX/PS2 Square RPGs have been killing in the last three days, I would still be pretty surprised if it were actually in the picture to advance out of this one. And with Paper Mario... that's another toughie. The Mario name has been doing wonders for every entrant, and after Mario RPG's great showing it's hard to imagine all of those fans would abandon the (kind of) next installment in the series. I mean I can't see it beating out VC, but it ought to at least hold up better than most are giving it credit for. So in the end I'm going to go with Prime because 1. Paper Mario and GTA should both have respectable Day Votes/ASVs, limiting the damage it'll do to Metroid there 2. Samus looks AWESOME in that match pic and 3. my bracket told me so. Final decision: - Metroid Prime - 32.19% - Kingdom Hearts - 32.09% - Grand Theft Auto: Vice City - 21.75% - Paper Mario - 13.97% Let's go Prime! ### Next Day Review What an absolutely disgusting result. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3467&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=22) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=22) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Diablo II: Lord of Destruction vs Grand Theft Auto III vs Halo: Combat Evolved vs Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic 2009 _source: Diablo II: Lord of Destruction vs Grand Theft Auto III vs Halo: Combat Evolved vs Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic 2009 (revid 68770)_ ## Results **Round One** Wednesday, April 29th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 2001-2003 - **Match \#:** 23 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, April 29th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Halo: Combat Evolved - 32.52% Diablo II: Lord of Destruction - 26.47% Grand Theft Auto III - 25.44% Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic - 15.54% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Diablo II first place (2pts) - 18.70% Diablo II second place (1pt) - 15.05% Halo second place (2pts) - 32.91% Halo first place (1pt) - 47.46% - **Advancing Prediction:** Diablo II - 33.75% (12,925) Halo - 80.37% (30,778) This is the best possible match you could ask for in a fourway format. All 4 games close early, all 4 games breaking 20% late and all four games taking awhile to establish anything on one another. The general consensus here was Halo and Diablo 2 getting some order of 1-2, with Grand Theft Auto 3 still having some people retain faith in the series. No one really expected anything of KOTOR while sharing a poll with fellow Xbox smash hit Halo. Little did we know how awesome this poll would be. When it started, all four games were virtually dead even for a few minutes, with GTA3 straggling behind a bit. It would fall behind pace relatively quickly, and by the 30 minute mark it was clearly not going to threaten a second place finish. It obviously still ended up doing extremely well for a last place game, and it even managed to shave a 700 vote deficit down to 250 with the dead hours, and threatened to steal third place for a time. If you used Vice City's 2004 performance to gauge Grand Theft Auto 3, I guess one could call GTA3 a disappointment here. Its sales and critical acclaim (once upon a time, GTA was actually a good series; now Rock\$\* just rehashes GTA3 with different color tones and the fans eat it up like drones) should have meant it doing better than it showed here, but it was simply not to be. GTA has fallen off the map more and more with each passing year on this site, though I won't trash 3's performance in this match. It helped create one of the best fourway scenarios possible. The true match however took place between Halo and KOTOR. Even though this poll is close in percentage, Diablo 2 established control of first place within 30 minutes and did about as well as a game can do in a close match. After the first freeze, it never lost the lead and shocked casual and Board 8 bracketmaker alike with its first place finish. Diablo 2 placing wasn't a giant surprise to the Board 8 people, but outdoing Starcraft and scoring first place was. Its first place prediction percentage was 18.7%, and partial was 15.05%, one of the lowest of the entire first round. Part of this was casual underestimation (Diablo 2 being stronger than Starcraft was a HUGE leap of faith given 2004), but most of it is Halo time and time again being the most overbracketed series we'll ever have. Everyone always picks Halo stuff to go far every contest, and every contest it falls flat on its face. Which at last brings us to one of the most surprising performances of the entire contest. Can anyone look at this poll and honestly tell me expanding character battles to all fictional gaming characters is a bad idea? Star Wars KOTOR not only performed well, but it performed well in the face of two fanbases -- PC and Xbox -- that should have stolen all its votes and sent it packing to an easy last place. The reason for this is inexplicable to me, unless the name "Star Wars" really means that much. And putting Darth Vader or Luke Skywalker in a contest would be a bad idea? Are you kidding me? I'm all for it. Halo actually spent the first 90 minutes of this match struggling to build a 200 vote lead, but it all fell apart overnight. Star Wars came all the way back during the dead hours, built a small lead, tailed off a bit in the morning and built up a 700 vote lead during the DSV. Halo predictably made a furious comeback with the ASV and won second place (and even cut its deficit on Diablo 2 down to 1900 after trailing by something like 2600-2700 votes), but this was a rare comeback where I didn't notice too much whining. Halo's ASV is well-documented by now, so people saw it coming well before it happened. However everyone was so surprised and happy by Star Wars' initial effort that they didn't mind the end result loss too much. Threatening second place in the face of two stronger games from your two main fanbases is an unbelievable effort, and one of the most commendable results of the entire contest. You won't find many 0-2 games more impressive than Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic. For Halo, despite the win and my risking a broken record here, casual shooters were bombing all over the place. This was a bomb regardless of it winning; if you're Halo, you don't rely on a monster ASV to come back on a weaker game from your own system. You just don't. This was one of the most embarrassing contest wins I can remember. On a more personal note, Diablo 2 winning kicks all sorts of ass. It took me forever to get into online, but I did eventually get hooked. How I have two level 90 characters (Hammerdin and Meteorb Sorceress), but I might sell all my stuff on d2jsp given the impending ladder reset. Anyway, awesome to see Diablo 2 get its due. This was an amazing result. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction This seemed like a fairly easy poll to predict not so long ago, but after the wild events of the last 5 days anyone who tells you they have ANY kind of confidence in ANY of the possible results here is a bald faced liar! (Or perhaps an honest lunatic.) Quick hitters: - I'm seeing pretty high Halo picks for this one over in the Oracle, but I'm not buying it. This is a terrible draw for Halo; its against one of the two or so alternative Xbox games that people actually care about, and on top of that casual/frat boy split between itself GTA3 is going to hurt it plenty. Now granted we said the same thing about Master Chief and Vercetti and couple years back, but that was Steroid MC- I think the '08 version would have been held back more like we expected. - Because of the forementioned overlap I also don't think GTA3 runs away with anything here, not even after today's very impressive showing for VC. Although it IS the only PS2 option, and with how crazy hot that system has been all week... yeah, it's going to look very good and improve on VC's percentage, but the trouble is... - I don't think there's anyway Diablo loses to GTA in a close match. And since Halo will be weakening it a little and people actually care about KotoR somewhat, there probably won't be enough percentage to go around for GTA to blow past DII with ease, which could take us back to a Warcraft/GTA situation. Also, despite all the calls of FLOP, SC did still manage over 28% of the vote- Diablo doesn't even need to do that in order to pull out a second place here. So with that in mind I'm taking a 0.000000% confidence pick of: - Halo - 30.91% - Diablo II: Lord of Destruction - 26.76% - Grand Theft Auto III - 26.72% - Knights of the Old Republic - 15.61% ...wait a minute, did I just pick Diabo \> GTA not three hours after stating that Warcraft \> GTA was making less and less sense every minute? What was I THINING? ### Next Day Review Oh man, what an entertaining match that was! I mean, just check out the final graph (listed above). Flat out insane trends, especially from Halo which pulled the closest thing I've ever seen to a perfect horizontal "S curve"- look at it go absolutely dead to rights in Europe before exploding once the American teenagers started hitting the polls. I mean obviously we've seen this kind of thing before from Halo/MC, but this time it was especially powerful thanks to Diablo being the complete polar opposite. Jeez DII, from dominating the next closest competitor by over 6% overnight to finishing dead last in a couple updates during the day! Too bad that the loser in all this excitement had to be the one entrant that was consistently impressive throughout the entire day... check out that straight as an arrow trend for KotOR. Now there's a fanbase you could set your watch to! Too bad that, like Donkey Kong (and unlike Frog and Sub-Zero) before him it just didn't QUITE have what it took to pull off the hilarious upset. And of course the most stunning result has to be GTA3. How in the world do you manage to flop this badly in a poll with no Nintendo, and no Square, and where you're the only Playstation option? The craziest part is that the game did terribly the first couple hours (as expected), but then did very well in Europe and actually held up quite decently during the day, yet somehow got SFFed entirely to death within the fanbase that's supposed to be its \#1 lifeline, the American teens. I mean true, last night I predicted Halo would hurt GTA's casual/frat boy appeal, but even I didn't think it would break its legs off like THAT. (Also, props to this poll for being one of the more popular ones so far this season despite the major 'no Squintendo' disadvantage. And the added disadvantage of none of these games actually being strong... but shh about that, don't ruin the mood!) ## Trivia - Diablo II's 27.43% was the lowest percentage ever put up by a first-place finisher in a four-way battle, breaking the record of 27.79% set by Liquid Snake in 2007. - Likewise, GTA III broke Kefka's record for highest percentage received by a fourth-place finisher. - Neither of these records lasted very long, though. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3468&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=23) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=23) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Disgaea: Hour of Darkness vs Fire Emblem vs Super Smash Bros. Melee vs The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker 2009 _source: Disgaea: Hour of Darkness vs Fire Emblem vs Super Smash Bros. Melee vs The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker 2009 (revid 65258)_ ## Results **Round One** Thursday, April 30th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 2001-2003 - **Match \#:** 24 - **Match Date:** Thursday, April 30th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Smash Bros. Melee - 45.55% Zelda: The Wind Waker - 31.43% Disgaea: Hour of Darkness - 11.80% Fire Emblem - 11.25% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** SSBM first place (2pts) - 76.43% SSBM second place (1pt) - 18.10% Zelda:WW second place (2pts) - 61.30% Zelda:WW first place (1pt) - 12.94% - **Advancing Prediction:** Super Smash Bros. Melee - 94.53% (36,201) Zelda: Wind Waker - 74.24% (28,431) It's always nice following a long writeup with something really short, but this match doesn't require anything extensive. It was one of the most obvious results we could imagine. Melee \> Wind Waker was a mortal lock, though some people correctly cited this match as the point where we could spot Melee being in trouble. Perhaps expecting Melee to completely smash Wind Waker with SFF was unfair, but Wind Waker did a lot better than it should have, avoided the doubling and bled Melee's percentage in the latter stages of the match. If Wind Waker could do this, Melee was in a world of hurt when Ocarina came along. Fire Emblem was also put into the absolute worst situation ever. It's become very respected as a series, but getting placed into a match against a Zelda and the very game that put it on the map (Melee) was an impossible mountain. Not surprisingly, it got SFFd to holy hell twice over and allowed a Disgaea-related contest entrant to not be in last place for the first time ever. Now if we could just figure out a way to get Disgaea into first or second place, all would be well! :D ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Wind Waker's in kind of a weird position between MM underperforming and LA looking like a beast, but between the two I'd wager it's more of an MM. Plus the results from Prime and StarCraft the last few days don't exactly speak favorably of its '04 run... Now, if voters are actually going to be turning anti-Nintendo in this last quarter of the bracket as everyone seems to be shouting about, you'd have to imagine that Melee and Brawl would be the prime targets for the backlash. BUT, I don't exactly buy that idea for one, and for two there's really no way to anti-vote Nintendo in this poll anyways, so SSB's sure to still look like a monster. The only real point of interest to me in this one is Disgaea. Clearly this game has an incredibly dedicated fanbase, and clearly this is the perfect setup for the game (only non-Nintendo choice, only PS2 option, and FE sure to be SFF-slammed below it), and you'd have to imagine the fans love the game itself more than Laharl, right? Yet despite Laharl pulling down a consistent 17% in his last two R1s it looks like most people are only taking Disgaea for 10% or so. I've got to think the game can look a little bit more respectable. And... that's about all I have to say! Numbers = - Super Smash Bros. Melee - 47.49% - Zelda: Wind Waker - 27.75% - Disgaea: Hour of Darkness - 13.25% - Fire Emblem - 11.52% Go Melee! ...sort of! ### Next Day Review Well, what can you say about this result? Strong showing from Melee, including a fantastic ASV that pushed it up to over 65% directly on Wind Waker, but... I don't think anyone was all THAT surprised to see it happen. FE had trouble as expected, and so pretty much the only thing to note is that I was correct in suspecting a STF-boosted good showing from Disgaea. (As usual though I wish I'd had more confidence in my hunch and boosted its number in my Oracle.) Anyways, a final score like this might mean good things for next round: Melee will clearly be the runaway winner, but with Halo and Diablo apparently being as weak as KotOR, it seems very possible that a weakened Wind Waker will be right in the mix with them for 2nd place. Could be the best fatal threeway of the round! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3469&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=24) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=24) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## God of War vs Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas vs Tales of Symphonia vs The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion 2009 _source: God of War vs Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas vs Tales of Symphonia vs The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion 2009 (revid 65259)_ ## Results **Round One** Friday, May 1st, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 2004-2006 - **Match \#:** 25 - **Match Date:** Friday, May 1st, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas - 30.94% God of War - 26.40% The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion - 24.54% Tales of Symphonia - 17.93% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Oblivion first place (2pts) - 15.78% Oblivion second place (1pt) - 28.14% Symphonia second place (2pts) - 10.25% Symphonia first place (1pt) - 5.85% - **Advancing Prediction:** Oblivion - 43.92% (16,820) Tales of Symphonia - 16.10% (6,166) This was basically the best match of the entire contest from a personal level and a match-that-kicks-ass level. As for why? All you need to know here is the consensus pick was San Andreas \> God of War, with some outside support for Oblivion getting second place over God of War. That's it. No mention of Tales of Symphonia doing anything, because its characters more or less suck ass in character contests. Even KP, a huge backer of San Andreas \> Oblivion tried talking himself up for Andreas \> Tales and could not. No logical reason for it. But then the match began, and all holy hell broke loose. But before the actual numbers, let me take a moment to explain something. You know Board 8 is Nintendo Central? Take that fanboyism, multiply it by 10 and you get Board 8 when Tales of Symphonia came out. The game was flat-out HUGE here. So when we finally got another game contest, with Tales in it, we went INSANE when Tales was winning early. All bets and bracket favoritism were off. We wanted Tales to do well. We all figured Tales was just getting the board vote before an ultimate collapse, but it lead by 50 votes at the freeze. And at 10 minutes, the lead actually went UP! And it kept on going up, all the way to 225 votes within an hour in a poll where every game would break 23%. That is amazing. This lead would slowly dissipate overnight, but not to the game we all thought would get first place. Remember how San Andreas \> God of War was the consensus pick, with Oblivion in second place as an outside upset? Well lost in all the early Tales of Symphonia hoopla was what was going on with the other three games. For the second time in three matches, Grand Theft Auto embarrassed itself. San Andreas, the game we all expected would score first place (not due to GTA being trustworthy, but due to the other games supposedly being weak), was actually the first game to play itself out of contention in this match. It fell behind pace the first, and would eventually fade away into a fairly easy last place. Its final score was very respectable of course, but it never really threatened anything. If I recall correctly, this was the only time all contest a consensus first place pick finished in last place. This is of course GTA on the whole falling off the map, but it's really weird thinking of Vice City as the only game in the 3/VC/SA trio to advance this contest. After 3 and San Andreas lost, GTA4 was the only game left to potentially do anything besides Vice City. The overall GTA collapse is rapidly happening before our eyes every contest, but no one saw even this coming. San Andreas was considered far and away the strongest GTA title, but I guess we were wrong. With GTA out, this left Oblivion and ToS battling for first, with consensus second place God of War trailing not too far behind in third place. Oblivion would eventually take the lead from Tales of Symphonia overnight, and would not let it go for the rest of the match. In the end, Oblivion's steady rise allowed it to win the match outright by 2100 votes, in a match in which Oblivion getting second place would have been a huge upset special. Oblivion was not only legit, but was an outright contender after this. This ultimately leads us back to how second place was won. Tales of Symphonia lost its early lead to Oblivion and Oblivion eventually won. We get all that. But as ToS was letting Oblivion fly on by, God of War was trailing behind in a very close third place and also threatening ToS's leads. Oblivion took the lead for good from ToS around 3:00 a.m. EST, and around this time God of War was losing to ToS for second place by 300 votes. Given how well casual action games do during day votes, 300 votes was nothing for God of War to potentially make up in 21 hours of poll. Sure enough, God of War began chipping away at the lead, against a game that more or less shared trends with it. It began chipping away during the dead hours, built up a tiny bit of steam once the early morning vote hit, then got locked into an eternal stall with Tales of Symphonia once the morning vote hit full stride. The lead got under 100 at 7:30 in the morning. It took three hours of progressive stalling from both sides for God of War to shave that 100 down to taking second place position for the first time, which happened at 10:30. After all that fighting, God of War finally managed a degree of control in the match and began one of those prolonged stall lead increases. At 10:30, its lead began at 9 votes. It then began a very, very pain-staking process of lead increases in the face of multiple ToS stalls, with its lead ultimately peaking at 400 votes around 5:00 p.m. EST. For Tales of Symphonia, the game that started the poll on fire and forced two games to fight like hell to get it out of first place and ultimately to third, it seemed like its time was done. Trend-wise, Tales of Symphonia was behaving like a Nintendo game: strong first hour, weak overnight, strong morning vote, strong after school vote. The problem here is God of War was equally or more strong than ToS in all those voting blocks save the Power Hour. During the morning vote and ASV, the best Tales could do was a lot of stalls in the face of an overall lead increase in God of War's favor. But now the ASV was winding down to an end, ToS had given its best effort and like most Nintendo games, would have an evening and second night votes similar to the first night vote -- essentially meaning Tales of Symphonia was screwed. When you behave like a Nintendo game all match, you don't miraculously switch trends and come back 400 votes on a game that will only get stronger as the match nears the end. And yet inexplicably, suddenly, even miraculously, Tales of Symphonia caught fire after 5:00 p.m. It dropped to 300 by 5:20. 40 minutes later, 300 had become 200. Before God of War could even recover from the blitz of the last 70 minutes, it was bleeding percentage and votes all over the poll. Tales of Symphonia was back on its ass, and hard. God of War tried the best it could to stall Tales of Symphonia away, but it was not to be. By 7, the lead was down to 100. And right on cue, Tales of Symphonia took its lead back just past 8. God of War made one last stand and fought against Tales building a lead, but God of War ran out of gas for good at 9 o'clock. It stalled Tales whenever possible, but the last three hours of this poll was a slow grind up to a 280 vote lead for Tales, with God of War cutting 50 votes off of this lead before poll's end. It was a complete and total collapse on God of War's part, because this match was over GoW was putting Tales away with the ASV, then all of a sudden the ASV flipped dead around and buried God of War within a few hours. More shocking here was how Nintendo games generally don't do well in the evening and second night votes, while Kratos trends upwards all the way through to the end of the match. How Tales of Symphonia pulled this off in the face of these trends is just beyond me. It's not something that can at all be explained, I'll just say this was a beautiful match to watch. Four games breaking 23% in a fourway poll, the consensus first place pick coming in last place, and Tales of Symphonia shocking the world all made this the best match of the contest. This was like a match before stats and trends and all that stuff. Just sit back, pick a favorite and root on. There's no real way to gauge potential strength from this match either, since all four games were so close. All could be strong, all could suck. Who really knows until later? Doesn't make this match any less awesome. More awesome was the whining and cheating accusations following this. Some fake stats professor from Cornell (what a stupid internet gimmick) actually tried telling the board that this result was statistically impossible given the prediction percentages; they were too low for ToS, indicating cheating had to be involved in the final ToS push that won it second place over God of War. Yes, because everyone with a bracket entered votes based on bracket and prediction percentages, and only people with a bracket ever get to vote on the main page. Good job, fake stats guy. Way to make a perfect match even better by acting like a whiny little \*\*\*\*\* and giving us all something to laugh at for days afterward. ### Interesting facts - Not surprisingly, this marks the closest four-way match in GameFAQs contest history. Never before has a fourth-place finisher broken 23%, nor has a first-place finisher been held under 27%. - Incidentally, both the record for highest fourth-place percentage and the record for lowest first-place percentage had just been set two days prior to this match, when Diablo II became the first entrant to win a four-pack with under 27.5% and GTA 3 became the first fourth-place finisher to break 22%. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Tonight is one of those rare matches that makes me appreciate how enjoyable R1 4way matches can be. Okay sure, none of these games are all that strong, but if the end result is a cluster of a foursome as wild as the one we saw two days ago, I can't say I mind! My fellow Crewmates have done a fine job of pointing out the pros and cons for all four games, but since this is the first time all season where I've honestly felt (pre-battle) that EVERY game has a good chance of advancing, I'm excited enough to add some bullet points of my own. - I've always been firm in my SA \> VC \> 3 \> 4 belief, and I still stand by that. however we've already seen that when it came to the casual voters Halo was GTA's perfect poison, and I think there's a good chance GoW does something similar. so I'd be VERY surprised if GTA ran away with this one, and could easily see it falling to second - DMC not managing to get a single game into the bracket (come on, even MEGA MAN got three!) really shook my faith in action titles on this site, and has been pointed out it would just make sense for Kratos to be \>\> GoW in the same way that Dante \>\> DMC. I did still end up taking God of War in my bracket, but that was only out of a total lack of respect for TES. but now... - you've got to be more than a little scared of Oblivion after seeing that Morrowind showing, don't you? okay so it was only 17%, but that nearly doubled Silent Hill (which shouldn't be pathetically weak in this format) and that was just a crazy-powerful 4 pack all around, PLUS it was having to contend with the most dominant RPG of the past 11 years. when you consider that Oblivion beats Morrowind in pretty much every area and that TES once again gets the advantage of being the only Xbox or PC option, you've got to love its chances to place (or very possibly win outright). sorry, bracket! - as much as I despise everything Tales Of not even I can count this game out entirely. Lloyd and ToS in general seem to be able to put up 20%ish pretty consistently, and with no one here being a powerhouse and the Nintendo/non-American sore thumb advantage, it certainly has some things working in its favor. but, we ALWAYS say this about ToS, and it ALWAYS finds a way to come up just short. I've been stung by that dumb game too many times to let it happen again- kill it, kill it! BOLD prediction: expect another super cool start near the 25/25/25/25 mark for this one, thanks to ToS's strong B8 support and GTA being so weak in the first couple hours. But when the dust settles, here are the percentages you're going to see: - Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas - 30.50% - The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion - 27.47% - God of War - 22.42% - Tales of Symphonia - 19.61% You can bet on it! (just... don't ask me for a repayment afterwards) ### Next Day Review Haha, yet another awesome match. People keep bashing these close ones with all this "all the options are weak, weeeeeak!" kind of talk, but I say "meh" to that. I mean these polls are still drawing a very nice 120k votes so it's not as though the site doesn't care whatsoever about the games. I just wish we could have seen some of these supposedly "weak" games go up against some of the classics of the past, like your Super Metroids or your Tetrises, so we could have gotten a real reading on where they stand. But anyways, yeah, I'm still absolutely shocked by that ASV... how does GoW do NOTHING with it when Kratos is one of the biggest afternoon studs we've seen? How does Oblivion continue to win despite being a semi-cultish RPG? And how does SA- alright, alright, so we've already beaten that horse to death. \*gives GTA one last kick for good measure\* And of course it's pretty funny to see ToS pulling a Phoenix Wright here and holding off the casual choice with a steady couple hundred barrier... yes sir, 4ways can certainly make for enjoyable R1 outings! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3470&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=25) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=25) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Halo 2 vs Metal Gear Solid 3 vs Okami vs World of Warcraft 2009 _source: Halo 2 vs Metal Gear Solid 3 vs Okami vs World of Warcraft 2009 (revid 65260)_ ## Results **Round One** Saturday, May 2nd, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 2004-2006 - **Match \#:** 26 - **Match Date:** Saturday, May 2nd, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Metal Gear Solid 3 - 32.81% World of Warcraft - 26.85% Halo 2 - 24.77% Okami - 15.69% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** MGS3 first place (2pts) - 20.51% MGS3 second place (1pt) - 25.49% WoW second place (2pts) - 36.80% WoW first place (1pt) - 37.23% - **Advancing Prediction:** Metal Gear Solid 3 - 46.00% (17,616) World of Warcraft - 74.03% (28,351) One of the biggest arguments pre-contest was the potential strength of WoW. A lot of people figured it would suck because of how bad it always did in past polls, others figured it would be a lot stronger because of rallying potential (and pre-contest, a lot of people were on edge about Blizzard games), while others had it winning the entire contest. Lucid Faia, who once came a single point away from a perfect bracket, picked WoW to win this entire contest. There was no real way to settle this until match time, so a lot of people decided to stop talking about it until the proper time. When the match finally began, all we knew for sure is Metal Gear Solid 3 was a complete lock for first place. The other three games fought it out for a few minutes, but everything took form soon enough. Okami fell off at the ten minute mark, never to be heard from again as Halo 2 and WoW were tied and fighting it out for second place. 20 minutes later, WoW had a lead of over 100 on Halo 2 and the match was essentially over. There would be no miracle ASV pushes from a Halo this time, only a big prolonged stall once WoW's lead hit 2700 or so. Halo 2 actually needed the morning vote and ASV pushes just to hold off Okami and avoid last place. Okami had come back from down 550 votes to Halo, only to watch it all blow up in smoke come the ASV. The damage to Halo 2 however was done. Not only did it not contend for second place, it needed an ASV push to prevent coming in LAST PLACE. Casual shooters bombing all over, etc etc. If there was any doubt about Fallout 3 \> Halo 3 being the easy pick for the final match of this round, that ended today. And while World of Warcraft came in second place, I don't think it was because of rallying or voodoo or any weird mumbo-jumbo. This is likely as strong as the game is -- decent, but nothing overpowering, and surely nothing that would get it a contest-winning bandwagon. Barring a miracle, it was done in round 2. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Before we get started on tonight's match properly let me just give a silent salute to the guys responsible for that match pic (and SB for making the right choices). Just an excellent, excellent piece of work right there- Okami gets to pull the full wolf shirt appeal that has worked so well for Ammy, WoW is awarded with the look that bailed out Arthas against Ike, Halo gets that very recognizable box art that did wonders for MC in '07, and MGS3 looks best of all in sporting that extremely iconic Snake Salute. This is exactly what match pics ought to look like *every night*- all the characters/games sporting their best and most recognizable looks, no "pic factor" having to come into play because everyone comes across as awesome right across the board. Soooo, I took WoW in my bracket but lost a ton of faith in that choice after seeing SC get smoked (despite the common assumption that this format was going to do wonders for Blizzard), and even though Diablo managed that win it didn't inspire a ton of confidence either. Especially when you consider that I'm sure both SC and Diablo are miles ahead of WoW in terms of legit popularity on this site. HOWEVER, MGS3 looks very good in the pic, has no haters and a super-dedicated fanbase, so I think it could pull a solid 35% or so here. And Okami is not going to roll over and die; it's the only option to appear on a Nintendo console, is sporting full on Ammy apeal, and we've already seen many examples of semi-cultish games holding up great against modern competition, so I think it might be able to push towards the 20% mark. And that would mean WoW would need only 23% or thereabouts in order to advance... after we've already seen SC manage 28 and Diablo pull down about 27. I'm a long ways from a Warcraft fan, but I do think the game will be up to that task, especially considering that it just makes sense for Blizzard rallying to be super-effective against competition like Halo. We're already seen it work out twice, and so the only way I see Halo keeping it from happening a third time is by blowing past WoW early and never looking back, which I just don't think it can do. My biggest hope for this match though is that WoW builds up a huge overnight lead before H2 pulls one of the most frightening comebacks in history with the ASV. Seems highly possible considering none of these other options should be beasts with the Day Vote! In any case though I think WoW rallies its way to a win in the last half hour if this is at all in question, which is why I'm going with: - Metal Gear Solid 3 - 34.91% - World of Warcraft - 23.11% - Halo 2 - 22.97% - Okami - 19.01% *24 hours of Albion*, here we go! ### Next Day Review Grrrr, so upset at Halo right now. Sure, I picked it to lose in both my Oracle and my bracket and it's living up to that billing, but if it could just have been a little less pathetic I'd be right in line for a perfect prediction here (think I'm like .41 off on MGS3 and .15 off Okami or something). But yeah, sub 22 in a match where it's the only Xbox option AND only shooter option is just nuts to me... how do you go from hanging tight with Snake in '07 to THIS in only two short years, especially considering how Xbox systems have never been more popular on this site than right now? The other strange thing is that despite WoW needing a "massive rally" to have any kind of strength and despite Halo's supposed casual appeal, this is going to be the least popular match in like a week and a half. Hmm... anyways kudos to Okami for validating itself as a legit midcarder for the third straight year, and to MGS3 for putting on a show that has us wondering if maybe it IS the 2nd most popular of the series. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3471&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=26) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=26) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Gears of War vs Kingdom Hearts II vs Resident Evil 4 vs Shadow of the Colossus 2009 _source: Gears of War vs Kingdom Hearts II vs Resident Evil 4 vs Shadow of the Colossus 2009 (revid 65264)_ ## Results **Round One** Sunday, May 3rd, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 2004-2006 - **Match \#:** 27 - **Match Date:** Sunday, May 3rd, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Resident Evil 4 - 37.49% Kingdom Hearts II - 30.97% Gears of War - 20.25% Shadow of the Colossus - 11.29% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** RE4 first place (2pts) - 42.21% RE4 second place (1pt) - 36.48% KH II second place (2pts) - 21.65% KH II first place (1pt) - 18.00% - **Advancing Prediction:** Resident Evil 4 - 78.69% (30,135) Kingdom Hearts II - 39.65% (15,184) There were two games in this contest -- Shadow of the Colossus and Chrono Cross -- that I wanted to see lose more than any other. They're the two most overrated games ever made. After this match, I got my wish. I would have rather Shadow of the Colossus scored like 2%, but I'll take what I can get. This result still flooded the board with the "SHADOW OF THE COLOSSUS IS ART YOU GUYS ALL SUCK" topics I was hoping to see from its whiny-ass fanbase, so I was not disappointed at all. Good show! Nothing beats the sound of crying from a bad game's whiny fanbase. Nothing. I bet some of those people were even crying in real life, which makes the loss even better for me. I didn't end up winning this contest or even coming close, but man did I love a good deal of the results in it. With that out of the way, \[insert some overused line about casual shooters doing bad\]. Gears of War bombed, even though no one expected it to win. Et cetera. The real match here was obviously the battle for first place, and for once a battle for first place mattered because there was no way both RE4 and KH2 were going to get late into the contest this way. Whoever won this was almost a lock to repeat the effort in round 2, while the loser would likely repeat the trend and lose. This wasn't Mario Kart vs Super Metroid, because both games ended up in a big SNES cluster\*\*\*\* in round 2 and you couldn't guarantee a repeat of trends. This was much much different. The two games obviously ended up very close, but they weren't supposed to be. Before the contest, the consensus for the final was LTTP, FF7, Ocarina and FFX, with FFX being the most likely game not to make it. Contenders to upset it included... pretty much anything in the bottom half of the bracket if you were biased enough, but the big names were Brawl, Galaxy, Twilight Princess, Resident Evil 4, Metal Gear Solid 4 and even Metal Gear Solid. When you're a contender to possibly make the final, you don't go out and struggle to beat Kingdom Hearts 2. Kingdom Hearts is a strong series and all, but it's not finals-caliber. And for a time in this match, it looked like RE4 was in real danger of getting second place. It did well enough in the early parts of the poll, building a lead for itself overnight even though KH2 was performing well. But then the morning vote hit and all bets were off. KH2 started slowly chipping away at a very consistent rate come morning time, and continued chipping away all the way through the DSV. By the time that magical 3:00 p.m. EST came around, a lead that was once 1250 votes was down to 736, and we hadn't seen the insane Kingdom Hearts ASV yet. It looked like KH2 would catch fire with the ASV like it always does and win this match easily, but somehow it did not. Instead we got a prolonged, drawn-out, hours-long stall all the way until the end of the match. At 3, RE4's lead was 736. It ended up winning by 725 votes. An 11 shift in 9 hours is about as close a stall as one could imagine, and any potential KH2 pushes were met with pushbacks (at one point the lead was below 600, but it never felt like we were moving out of stall-land) until the end of the match and RE4's win here. But it was a Pyrrhic victory at best. This match proved RE4 was not a contender to make the final, and in all honestly it got lucky to get first place here. Holding off the entirety of the Kingdom Hearts day vote to win is no easy feat, and it basically won because of building up that 1250 vote lead overnight. Had Kingdom Hearts even prevented a 1000 vote lead overnight, things might have been different here. And if the original Kingdom Hearts were in this match instead of 2, I'm positive RE4 loses this -- X-Stats be damned. The other main reason RE4 won is because it's a quasi-Nintendo game. How else do you explain holding off the vaunted Kingdom Hearts day vote? You need a fanbase that also has a passable day vote, and Nintendo has one. In a way, RE4's massive overlapped fanbase is a blessing and a curse. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Tonight has me a little bit frightened. I'm a firm believer in RE4, but even so I'm very much surprised that no one seems to be giving KHII any real kind of chance at the win in this one. I mean RE4 has some things going in its favor (only option to make it to a Nintendo console, RE5 still bringing in visitors, RE1 and 2 looked decentish and 4 will of course be well ahead of them, KH has to split with another PS2 game), but it seems like a really good case for could also be made for Kingdom Hearts: - KHII sold nearly as well as the original, is owned by even more people on My Games, reviews between the two are about the same... if there's any series where the sequel could be just as strong as the first, I'd think it would have to be KH - New Square RPGs have been on fire- we vastly underestimated FF8, yet refused to adjust our thinking and have ended up underestimating FF9, FFX, and KH1 as well. shouldn't we start giving them more credit at some point? - KH1 put up 38% against what I would still argue wasn't terrible competition. it pounded Vice City straight up despite having to share the poll with another "kiddie" RPG (granted a win over GTA doesn't look that amazing anymore, but still, it was a slaughter) and even outdid Metroid Prime and Mario RPG combined. yeah yeah, everyone's been kicking Prime in the sack for the last week, but come on, isn't there a limit to how weak it could realistically be? - RE4 isn't really survival-horror, it's more of a shooter, and shooters have been bombing right and left this season. plus I'd have to imagine that there are a ton of RE4 fans who also enjoy Gear of War and vice versa- sure they're on different platforms, but I would still imagine there's a decent bit of overlap between the two (whereas KHII and SotC are such vastly different games that I doubt it has the same problem) So yeah, I still think RE4 is quite strong (and pretty independent) and don't disagree with those who took it to make a deep run into this bracket... I just don't think that tonight's poll provides ideal circumstances for it, and as a result I don't think it's going to be blowing KH2 out of the water. I'll go with - Resident Evil 4 - 35.91% - Kingdom Hearts II - 32.29% - Gears of War - 19.97% - Shadow of the Colossus - 11.83% Don't flop on me now, KH! (Watch, it somehow will- this series always does just the opposite of what I expect!) ### Next Day Review Whooo hooo, called a KH match right for the first time in my life! In my writeup I scolded us for continuing to underestimate New Square... based on today's preds, looks like we've finally gotten the picture! That part of the day was great, but in retrospect I'm not sure what I thinking with those picks for the bottom two games. I mean clearly RE4 was going to be hurting Gears (and a little bit back in the other direction), so why did I pick it to score only a few points less than Halo had the day before? And then I made the mistake of trying to set SotC equal to Wander despite every other cultish game doing way better than their protagonists on the modern half of the bracket. Oh well, live and learn! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3472&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=27) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=27) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Final Fantasy XII vs Half-Life 2 vs Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney vs The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess 2009 _source: Final Fantasy XII vs Half-Life 2 vs Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney vs The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess 2009 (revid 65263)_ ## Results **Round One** Monday, May 4th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 2004-2006 - **Match \#:** 28 - **Match Date:** Monday, May 4th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: Twilight Princess - 39.27% Final Fantasy XII - 25.08% Half-Life 2 - 20.58% Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney - 15.26% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Zelda:TP first place (2pts) - 41.53% Zelda:TP second place (1pt) - 40.73% HL2 second place (2pts) - 27.37% HL2 first place (1pt) - 34.94% - **Advancing Prediction:** Twilight Princess - 82.26% (31,502) Half-Life 2 - 62.31% (23,862) Phoenix had the standard Board 8-infused early lead, but finished about where he was expected. And one day after RE4 proved it was not a finals contender (but still had good matches left in it), Twilight Princess went out and killed its own poll, putting itself into the discussion. Though it was never really in question, the real match here was Final Fantasy 12 vs Half-Life 2 for second place. Twilight Princess \> Half-Life 2 was the major consensus here, but with all the casual shooters committing suicide this contest, FF12 \> HL2 looked like a possibility more and more with each passing day. FF12 is about as mixed as a fanbase can be, but a mainstream Final Fantasy outright bombing is rare. This all added up to some rather worried people come match time, but this was laid to rest fairly quickly. At the beginning, Half-Life 2 built a 1000 vote lead in a little over two hours. And though FF12 did far better from this point until the end of the poll -- the lead only increased from 1000 to 2800 by the end, with a lot of prolonged stall periods -- Final Fantasy 12 never threatened a comeback or anything of the sort. This was one of those matches whose end result was only close on paper, but the winner was never in doubt. For one day, a casual shooter bothered not embarrassing itself. And make no mistake; losing to Final Fantasy 12 would have been VERY embarrassing. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Tonight... was supposed to be the best match of the whole opening round, according to alot of people pre-Contest. I mean, check out these Guru preds for 2nd place: - Half-Life 2 - 126 (58.33%) - Final Fantasy 12 - 80 (37.04%) - Phoenix Wright - 5 (2.31%) And yet you look through the Crew and Oracle picks for tonight and it's almost entirely a landslide in the other direction- what happened? Well, this happened - Ocarina - 54% - FF9 - 21% - HL1 - 15% - CC - 10% Yikes, hard to argue with that! Let's compare and contrast quickly - Ocarina \>\> TP - obviously, but I'm one of the biggest believers in TP and still think it could very well be right up there with FFX and contending for a Top Ten position, so I wouldn't be surprised at all if it shot up well above 40 - FF9 \> FF12 - the way TP manhandled this game back in '06 after some had been expecting that GotY to go neck and neck was really telling, and I've got to figure it's only lost more steam in the last 2.5 years. but even if 9's ahead by a decent bit, 12 has the advantage of not losing votes to a Chrono game, so I really can't imagine it finishing below FF9's total - HL2 \> HL1 - KHII is doing a great job of proving that just because you were the original doesn't ALWAYS mean you're the strongest, and thanks to the Orange Box and the continued progress of steam you could make a really fine case for HL2. but, sorry, the gap from that last match was just too large to be able to make up with only a minor strength upgrade. if there was some other PSX/PS2 RPG option in the bottom spot I would still at least consider the upset, but not as it stands - PW \>\> CC - cult games have really been shining ever since we got into the 32/64 bit era, and I see no reason why one of the most beloved games on the GameFAQs social boards wouldn't continue the trend. I used to think that heavy Nintendo competition would be bad news for a DS entry like Phoenix, but after the character performed so admirably in '08 I've got to give this series its props against any opponent. would not be shocked if Phoenix was even able to give Gordon a real run for his money here! And with that in mind, the numbers work out to just aboooooout - Zelda: Twilight Princess - 39.53% - Final Fantasy XII - 24.83% - Half-Life 2 - 19.03% - Phoenix Wright - 16.61% I like it! ### Next Day Review Hmm, the underperformance by Phoenix Wright here has me a little confused. I hear people explaining it away with "the character's more popular than the games", but this seems more like a case where the two would be exactly as popular, especially with the perfect match pic like that. I suppose its just more difficult to succeed as a cult/niche title without being the genre this site was built around, and I further suppose that we jumped to conclusions regarding Nintendo SFF; standing up to Bowser is a heck of a lot different from not folding to a top(ish?) tier Zelda title like this. Speaking of which, what a great showing from TP! It's pretty clear that while Europe and Asia have turned their backs on the series, the games are just as well-loved as ever everywhere else, as that was one heck of a Day Vote. And as for the second place battle... I have no idea what to think. I just can't wrap my head around HL2 being that much more popular than the original, even taking the Orange Box and recency and the GotY win (not here, but from most places) into account. Luckily we'll get to see it in action once again in a few weeks, hopefully that will allow me to draw some kind of sensible conclusion. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3473&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=28) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=28) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Grand Theft Auto IV vs Persona 4 vs Street Fighter IV vs Super Smash Bros. Brawl 2009 _source: Grand Theft Auto IV vs Persona 4 vs Street Fighter IV vs Super Smash Bros. Brawl 2009 (revid 65262)_ ## Results **Round One** Tuesday, May 5th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 2007-2009 - **Match \#:** 29 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, May 5th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 42.85% Grand Theft Auto IV - 24.05% Street Fighter IV - 20.99% Persona 4 - 12.09% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Brawl first place (2pts) - 41.95% Brawl second place (1pt) - 39.64% GTA4 second place (2pts) - 31.81% GTA4 first place (1pt) - 46.61% - **Advancing Prediction:** Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 81.59% (31,246) Grand Theft Auto IV - 78.42% (30,032) SO MANY FOURS. And oh lovely, the 2007-2009 division. So much whining pre-contest about how these games all sucked compared to past divisions. I didn't bother hopping on that train, because I haven't played a lot of these games yet. I mean sure I hated Brawl and a ton of these games are sequels and rehashes, but I loved Portal and MGS4 and I'm told I'll love BioShock and Fallout 3 and Persona 4. Just at a cursory glance, you have a few great games, a lot of good games and a lot of crap. Isn't that any gaming generation, really? Anyhoo, this was a fun match. Brawl \> GTA4 was the easy pick here, though some people figured Street Fighter 4's recent release and well-done online would help it threaten a dying GTA series. Yeah, no. Yeeah.... no. Yeeeeeeeah noooooo, yeeeeeah noooooooooooo. Street Fighter 4 turned out so weak that it provided us with the most entertaining fight for third place we'll ever see. But more on that in a second. Brawl \> GTA4 was the easy pick, but Brawl dominating the hell out of this match took a lot of people by surprise given the mixed reviews it's gotten. Well mixed on Board 8 and among some the Melee tournament people, anyway. I say some of the Melee tournament people for a reason, since the stereotype is really stupid. Believe it or not, it isn't just tourneycrabs whining about Brawl not being Melee. Most of the Melee pros actually moved on to Brawl and are having a grand old time. Regardless, Brawl dominated the hell out of this match, GTA4 scored an easy second place and Street Fighter 4 embarrassed itself in any way you can think of. It was one of the six replacements in the bracket, and it came out and.... sucked. It was in last place for over an hour, to a cult game that sold like 19 copies. I'd love to give Street Fighter some credit for fighting back from an early last place, then stalling for hours, then fighting back from down 300, then being pretty much tied for hours, and then ultimately coming back again in the final two hours to "win", but I can't. I know Board 8 loves Persona 4 and all, but let's be honest about its contest strength. It has none. Street Fighter 4 having to fight back three times to avoid scoring last place at the hands of Persona 4, when some were expecting a second place finish, is about as sad as it gets. Galaxy ended up the biggest bomb of the contest without question, but I'd argue this very match featured the most disappointing entrant. By the way, this match proved once and for all that Board 8's fabled last-minute rallying power is irrelevant; all the big last-minute pushes clearly come from the collective whole, not a couple of people on one board. You people couldn't find 8 more votes to save your latest fad? Against a game that was in the poll with two hands around its own neck? Really? You guys more or less lost to the Mets. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction The written word can't possibly describe the venom I'm feeling for GTA right now. I was shocked to the core by that pathetic GotY showing three months back and decided to bet against this series every time the bracket gave me a chance... yet even heading in with that mindset I had no choice but to take San Andreas for first place, and how does GTA thank me? A 4th place finish! At least betting against GTA3 worked out for me, but even then I'd never in a million years have expected it to get smacked in the mouth by KotOR of all things. So I was down on GTA heading into this year, am even more down on them after seeing these three results, and I'm 100% confident that GTA4 is the weakest of the series. ...and yet I'm still backing it for 2nd place. WHAT? Sorry. I'd love to take SF4, and in more balanced 4pack (like if Brawl were replaced with Halo 3 for instance) I would jump at the opportunity, but it just seems to me that a Smash Bros. opponent is the worst possible draw for anything Street Fighter. From my experience nearly all older gamers cut their teeth on fighters with some variant of SF2, fell away from the genre after a few years when it didn't do anything new, then were drawn back in earlier this decade thanks to SSB's casual-friendly appeal. And as for the younger gamers who weren't old enough to have experienced SF2 back in its prime, well... I somehow doubt many of them spent the \$60 on SF4, while probably ALL of them have played some Brawl and/or GTA4. I mean, not even the MATCH PIC is doing SF4 any favors in this one; you've got similar poses and placement and photoshop effects, but then you realize that the option touting an ensemble cast of Chun Li, M. Bison, and Ken is about five pixels away from the option offering Mario, Pikachu, and Samus (plus Link's left shoulder, which is apparently the more popular of the two). It's just a bad situation all around. So if SF4 is in a bad spot and GTA4 is just flat out bad, and considering how PS2 RPGs have been on fire and cult RPGs in generally have been impressing, why not back P4 for the upset? ...nah, just not seeing it. Knights of the Old Republic and Tales of Symphonia are sometimes called "cult" but that's really just an oversimplification of the term; Persona is the dictionary-perfect definition. I'm expecting a showing much more along the lines of Phoenix Wright than what ToS pulled off. And as for Brawl, well, those hyping the game to approach 50% are just crazy IMO. Sure none of these other options are juggernauts, but these are still three very strong, very distinct fanbases we're talking about, and between them they provide a good coverage of the 360 and PS3 and PS2. Anything much above 45 would really impress me out of SSBB. Final answer: - Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 44.22% - Grand Theft Auto IV - 21.38% - Street Fighter IV - 20.97% - Persona 4 - 13.43% But feel free to fuel my GTA hatred by pushing it down to 3rd, SF4! ### Next Day Review Tee hee, modern Nintendo's trends have been so fun to watch this season. Europe has turned its back on the company, and so have Asia and Australia so everything looks like complete trash beyond the first two hours. But then the ASV hits and BAM, America to the rescue! Last night I said that anything over 45 for Brawl would be super impressive, but I've sort of got to take that back now- never expected SF4 to get SFFed-owned this shockingly bad. (We're down to the final couple updates of this poll and it's still too close to call between SF and Persona, which is just sad beyond belief.) So yeah, nice result for Brawl but I could still easily see myself calling Galaxy the favorite for next round if it can exceed expectations tonight. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3474&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=29) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=29) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Call of Duty 4 vs Pokémon Diamond/Pearl vs Super Mario Galaxy vs Team Fortress 2 2009 _source: Call of Duty 4 vs Pokémon Diamond/Pearl vs Super Mario Galaxy vs Team Fortress 2 2009 (revid 65267)_ ## Results **Round One** Wednesday, May 6th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 2007-2009 - **Match \#:** 30 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, May 6th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Mario Galaxy - 36.09% Pokemon Diamond/Pearl - 25.39% Call of Duty 4 - 25.37% Team Fortress 2 - 13.27% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** CoD4 first place (2pts) - 58.05% CoD4 second place (1pt) - 22.49% Galaxy second place (2pts) - 38.98% Galaxy first place (1pt) - 25.19% - **Advancing Prediction:** Call of Duty 4 - 80.54% (30,844) Super Mario Galaxy - 64.17% (24,575) The vastly overwhelming consensus for this match is even with Pokemon in the poll, Galaxy \> Call of Duty 4 should have been a gimme match regardless of how strong most of us figured CoD4 would be. Galaxy was supposed to be a *monster* -- the one game universally beloved on the Wii despite everyone realizing how terrible the Wii is. Then it comes out and threatens Starcraft's position as biggest bomb of the contest. Call of Duty 4 rocked Mario's face, and essentially guaranteed a Brawl \> Galaxy result in round 2 given how well Brawl did in its poll a day prior to this. Even if you want to take the route of Pokemon LFFing Galaxy to a second place finish here, this still boded terrible for Galaxy. If a second-rate Pokemon title could leech Mario this badly, think what a Smash Brothers game would do. There was no amount of explaining that could brush off how badly Galaxy did here, and it would get waaaaaaaaaay worse in round 2. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Gah, no idea what to think about this one! Galaxy wasn't hyped through the roof like nearly every other AAA title this generation, but it had fantastic reviews and everyone who has played it has loved it; what more could you ask for? Mario has looked solid all season (aside from crying Baby Mario) and so the one thing I have confidence in is Galaxy cruising to an easy victory despite there being another Nintendo option. Beyond that, you could make a case for just about anything. On the one hand Pokemon has been sensational all Spring, even when put up against Zelda- and on the same hand shooters have been downright dreadful. Plus there are TWO shooter options in the poll, and the lesser one has the benefit of the full Valve support that pushed HL2 to victory just two day back, so you know it's not going to crumble completely. Also if you go back about a year or so the two biggest online shooters on the PC side were CoD4 and TF2, and thanks to the Orange Box TF2 isn't exactly an unknown on the 360 either. Jeez, taking all that into account, why would anyone bet against D/P? Well because on the other hand recent polls have shown that people will jump ship on modern Nintendo the first time a decent option comes around, and the multiplatform CoD4 is certainly that (or at least it was back at the tail end of 2007). And also, modern Pokemon is a huge question mark- do people just vote Pikachu and Mewtwo and R/B/Y out of SFF-proof nostalgia, and if so will they all jump aboard the Mario bandwagon once that factor is taken away? I say no, that D/P is still going to be a very solid, very respectable block of support tonight, and that furthermore TF2 is going to damage CoD more than most are giving it credit for. ...even so, I can't pull the trigger on this upset. Call of Duty was just too good in that GotY to be ignored, regardless of the disdain that voters have been showing for FPSs here in '09. And being the only PS3 option and major 360 option should still be enough to top Pokemon-fever. BARELY. - Super Mario Galaxy - 37.27% - Call of Duty 4 - 23.09% - Pokemon Diamond/Pearl - 23.05% - Team Fortress 2 - 16.59% And now time to check the poll results and be stunned yet again! ### Next Day Review Ugh, haven't been this disgusted by a result since Prime. Why did the best games of the last two Nintendo generations have to receive such unfortunate draws? (Yes, I realize that the draws weren't actually that bad and that in reality both Prime and Galaxy must be way weaker than I expected, but allow me to continue deluding myself, please.) I guess you could make a case for Galaxy still being decent, though, if you consider how bad the other Pokemon entries were able to make even Zelda and Final Fantasy games look. And for the extremely resilient Valve fanbase to allow their game to slip to a mere 12%, the other options must have all been packing a serious punch. Of course that would put CoD4 right up there in the league with Brawl and MGS4... but heck, I'll allow it if that's the only way I'm able to chalk this up as a moral victory for SMG! Unfortunate that Brawl's going to pound it no matter how much spin I try to put on this result, though. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3475&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=30) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=30) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## BioShock vs LittleBigPlanet vs Metal Gear Solid 4 vs Portal 2009 _source: BioShock vs LittleBigPlanet vs Metal Gear Solid 4 vs Portal 2009 (revid 88466)_ ## Results **Round One** Thursday, May 7th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 2007-2009 - **Match \#:** 31 - **Match Date:** Thursday, May 7th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Metal Gear Solid 4 - 42.74% Portal - 22.50% Bioshock - 20.18% LittleBigPlanet - 14.65% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** MGS4 first place (2pts) - 49.69% MGS4 second place (1pt) - 28.54% Portal second place (2pts) - 21.72% Portal first place (1pt) - 10.57% - **Advancing Prediction:** Metal Gear Solid 4 - 78.23% (29,959) Portal - 32.29% (12,366) Metal Gear Solid 4 is one of my all-time favorite games, and I'm still in afterglow mode because I beat Portal yesterday and was shocked at how amazing it was. Every possible good emotion a game can give you, Portal gave me. So... yeah, I can't not be biased here. I haven't yet played BioShock and I stopped caring about LittleBigPlanet after playing it for 15 minutes. This was a great result, even if I couldn't fully appreciate it until yesterday. Portal rocked that much. Not trashing BioShock, I just can't make an opinion on something I've yet to play. (UPDATE: Ulti has since played BioShock and likes it a tiny little bit more than Portal.) Anyway, MGS4 getting first here was a lock. LBP getting last was a lock. BioShock vs Portal was a tossup, because even though Portal getting second was the consensus what did we really know? Past polls had no good information on this, so it was more or less a guess. And since this board loves Portal to death (and now I know why!), Portal being the consensus in a tossup was no surprise. Thankfully, this wasn't much of a match at all. Vote totals were obviously low, but an all-PS3 poll will do that. And yes, I'm aware BioShock and Portal are on other systems. Don't care. Portal got the expected board vote, then did the "slowly increase lead and win easily in spite of the opponent getting a lot of stalls and small cuts" thing. BioShock made no major moves until the ASV, where it stalled Portal for a couple hours before shaving a 1600 vote lead down to a 1500 vote loss. Big whoop. Deploying surprise in five... four... God, what a \*\*\*\*ing amazing game Portal was. Words don't do it justice, and I really mean that. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Tonight is kind of a funny one, because this exact question was posed to me about 4 months back in someone's (maybe transience's?) mock bracket they posted in Stats, where Portal/BioShock was an 8/9 matchup. Back then I said that it ought to be close but that there was no way I'd bet against Valve or Blizzard in matches that would come down to the final hour, and so I took Portal. After seeing CoD4 today and KotOR/Oblivion/Morrowind the last couple weeks though, I've gained a healthy respect for (non-Halo) Xbox entries and would have to reverse my decision and take BioShock. ...unfortunately, tomorrow's match is NOT a 1v1 as originally intended though, and with the change in format plus MGS4 being around to swoop up the lion's share of the vote I think the ball is back in Portal's court tonight. There are a few people calling for the LBP upset in this one, but ehh, I just can't see it. Replace MGS4 with a true 360/PC shooter (like say Call of Duty) and I'd be the first to jump on the LBP bandwagon, but as it stands we've already seen Metal Gear Solid post 71% on the game directly and I don't think it's going to get any better tonight, not with Last Place Factor likely coming into the equation as well. The LBP believers say that it's the stand out/sore thumb option, but once again I'm not quite buying it. Portal is so unique and quirky and meme-filled that it would stand out in ANY (non-Valve) crowd, so I can't see that being a major advantage in Sackboy's favor. I'm also of the opinion that of these three choices, LBP is the one that has faded from the public's memory the fastest since those GotY polls were held. In summary we know so little about these games that I wouldn't be shocked by any combination out of the bottom three, but I've got a good feeling about Portal, even after TF2's stinker. I mean, just look how it dominates that match pic- not even a boy made out of sack, a giant walking robot, or the \#5 most popular character on GameFAQs can tear your eyes away! - Metal Gear Solid 4 - 43.57% - Portal - 20.18% - BioShock - 20.14% - LittleBigPlanet - 16.11% And actually I'm wondering why I didn't go lower on LBP now... Dang, better surprise me, Sacky! ### Next Day Review Dang, for a match with such potential, today didn't end up being that enthralling. MGS4 did decently but didn't really impress given the weakness of the competition, LBP disappointed somewhat but it's got a perfectly acceptable excuse, and all of the options were so similar in their fanbases that the overall trends were nearly non-existent. The storyline we'd drawn up was Portal getting out to a huge meme-fueled/WCC-like start in the first couple hours before giving that entire advantage away one the sun rose. Then BioShock was going to Xbox ASV its way into a lead, everyone would get worried for their bracket, but the Valve fans would rally to save the day in the final half hour. And well, it almost happened... BS has been cutting into the lead pretty consistently all afternoon, but like just about every other shooter in this contest, it looks as though the FPS is going to come up just a little bit short. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3476&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=31) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=31) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Fallout 3 vs Halo 3 vs Left 4 Dead vs Mass Effect 2009 _source: Fallout 3 vs Halo 3 vs Left 4 Dead vs Mass Effect 2009 (revid 65269)_ ## Results **Round One** Friday, May 8th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** 2007-2009 - **Match \#:** 32 - **Match Date:** Friday, May 8th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Fallout 3 - 35.78% Halo 3 - 27.69% Left 4 Dead - 18.67% Mass Effect - 17.88% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Fallout 3 first place (2pts) - 37.81% Fallout 3 second place (1pt) - 33.07% Halo 3 second place (2pts) - 26.07% Halo 3 first place (1pt) - 49.84% - **Advancing Prediction:** Fallout 3 - 70.88% (27,144) Halo 3 - 75.91% (29,070) Not only was Fallout 3 \> Halo 3 the consensus, but it was a near-lock by the time the match actually came up, and it gave us one of the most boring matches of all time. Which isn't all bad. Nice to see the first round end on a boring note and give people more time for first round overviews, since the stats topic guys make some awesome first round overviews. I wish I could be bothered talking about this match, but I can't. The results were locked within 2 seconds and stayed in a perfect staircase shape for a full 24 hours. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction I'm not sure what SB was thinking with a grouping like this- if you would take any two of these games and place them anywhere else in the bracket I would comment at length about how they were sure to hurt each other. So instead he heaps them all into a single pile! I guess that, in theory, if everyone is LFFing everyone else then NO ONE is LFFing anyone and it all evens out. But in reality setups like this just lead to dull, trendless matches where no one has a chance at a comeback because without any fanbase diversity the percentages just stagnate after the opening hour. Exactly like what we just sat through! Soooo, with so many kind-of-PC-but-actually-360 mature shooters and semi-shooters to choose from, does any one game have the upper hand? I don't really think so, but if pressed I suppose I would back Fallout to look best tonight. Sure it overlaps a good bit with Mass Effect, but it has the recency advantage (which always seems to be a big deal in GotYish polls like this) and doesn't appear to have faded from the public's mind as quickly as most holiday releases do. That being said I still don't think ME gets totally crunched; Fo3 seems like another MGS4 kind of game that's always going to be heavily supported and look good in a multiway format but that doesn't have the massive playrate or casual appeal needed to blow anyone out. The only question remaining is, can L4D pull a CoD4 and refuse to bend under Halo 3's pressure? My answer: an extremely timid "maybe." Left 4 Dead has had amazing sales for such a small release and continues to have great legs every month, and I think even people who aren't playing it on Live right now still have fond memories of matches they played with their friends in the last few months. I'm banking on L4D holding Halo back enough where first place is never in contention, but the Western RPGs \> Western Shooters trend has me leaning toward ME for 3rd place in this one. Should be close though, especially with how much that green box art stands out in the match pic. Let's say... - Fallout 3 - 34.28% - Halo 3 - 27.55% - Mass Effect - 20.25% - Left 4 Dead - 17.91% Yes sir, about 0% confidence in that! ### Next Day Review Memo to SB: when you group together the same kind of games with the same kind of fanbases from the same system, the result is exactly the opposite of what you told us you wanted out of this Contest. Yesterday's PS3 shooterfest resulted in only 109k votes, the least of the season so far... and then today's 360 shooter/wrpg-fest is going to result in a truly pathetic sub-103k total. For cripes' sake, even the old arcade/8-bit games that no one has cared about for 10 years managed 115k! To solve this problem for the next game contest, you could, gee wiz, NOT DIVIDE THE BRACKET BY ERAS! Sorry, just had to get that off my chest. I'll say one thing about today though- I was wrong about all the LFF resulting in a trendless 24 hours. H3 finally pulled out the kind of fantastic Bungie ASV we'd been expecting all Contest, which was especially impressive in this case since it had to share the poll with three other options that have a big time presence on the 360. Not much to say about this one aside from that; L4D did pretty decent and ME looked a little gross, but WRPG SFF kind of gets it off the hook. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3477&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=32) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=32) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Tetris vs Donkey Kong vs Mega Man 2 vs Pac-Man vs 2009 _source: Tetris vs Donkey Kong vs Mega Man 2 vs Pac-Man vs 2009 (revid 65270)_ ## Results **Round Two** Saturday, May 9th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Division 1972-1988 Semi Final - **Match \#:** 33 - **Match Date:** Saturday, May 9th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Tetris - 38.15% Mega Man 2 - 29.13% Pac-Man - 18.41% Donkey Kong - 14.15% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Tetris first place (4pts) - 53.14% Tetris second place (2pts) - 15.55% MM2 second place (4pts) - 24.48% MM2 first place (2pts) - 12.80% - **Advancing Prediction:** Tetris - 68.69% (26,306) Mega Man 2 - 37.28% (14,277) I refuse to call a round 2 "divisional semifinal" in a fourway contest, regardless of whether it actually is. It's round 2. Anyway, this was one of those rare matches where both sides of an argument got to be correct. Tetris people pretty much figured Mega Man 2 would get killed, especially after the first round. Mega Man fans insisted it still had a good chance to win. In the end, we kind of got the best of both worlds. Tetris did not SFF Mega Man 2 here, but it won quite handily and was never threatened past the first few minutes. It wasn't a complete killing as some predicted, but it was a handy win nonetheless. Still, Mega Man 2 looked decent here given the first round made it look like he would just get crushed. It's impossible to really say what if any role SFF played in this match, but it didn't matter too much. There was a decent battle for third place for a bit, but Pac-Man pulled through in a clear case of... SFFing a puzzle game in the face of Puzzle SFF? I dunno. This was our second straight legendarily boring match, so there's not much I can say here. Expected result, less than expected percentages. Simple and to the point, much like what this match was after Mega Man kept it even for a couple minutes. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction I absolutely adore the match pic! This format allows our artists soooo much more freedom than trying to cram everything into those skinny vertical rectangles, and you can see how much the product is improved by giving them that extra breathing room. I've heard people saying that DK or Pac is going to collapse in this one, but with perfect, super-nostalgic pictures of their most popular levels like that I just can't see it. MM2 is also vastly improved from last round (though it would have been hard to get any worse), but I don't think it catches the eye quite like the bottom two. As for Tetris, ehh, I think it would have done better with a screen of the blocks actually dropping rather than that title screen. Pic aside, the case for Mega Man in this one is that it has a more "hardcore" fanbase than these other ancient options and also that it stands out as the only game with semi-"modern" gameplay unlike the arcade options. And for the most part I buy into that argument. Where I disagree is when folks start claiming that Tetris is sure to fold against any kind of respectable competition. In a 1v1 setting, sure, but it seems to me that "joke appeal" wasn't the only reason L-Block was so successful in this 4way format. Part of his great run needs to be tied back to what an independent and un-LFFable entrant he was, something that Tetris should have going for it as well- when it gets to a choice between Zelda 1 and Mario 1 and Tetris, I could see a good chunk of voters jumping on the "anti-Nintendo" option, especially when it doesn't have to split its Game Boy appeal with anyone while MM2/Mario/Zelda all fight over the NES. I'm getting a little ahead of myself here, but suffice it to say that even though MM2 should redeem itself with a slightly better showing in this one (signalling good things for MM3!), I fully expect Tetris to show us that last round was no fluke by taking this match going away. And as mentioned, the pic probably helps the bottom two options not get totally blown out. Which would result in - Tetris - 37.20% - Mega Man 2 - 30.46% - Pac-Man - 18.65% - Donkey Kong - 13.69% Looks... okay, I guess! ### Next Day Review Oh wow, and now this latest poll wasn't even able to scrape past the 100k mark until the final 30 minutes of voting. The apathy created by keeping all of these extremely similar games cornered into the same packs is palpable; MIX THE ERAS NEXT TIME, SB. Alright, I'll stop mentioning that now. Not a fantastic result for me today as I was expecting DK to hold up a little bit better, though on the plus side I was almost spot-on with the Tetris/MM2 split... yeah, not too much to say about this match other than that thanks to the pathetic level of interest shown (Tetris looks like it won't even manage 40k votes despite winning easily) I've lost a ton of confidence in my "Tetris over one of the Big Two" upset bid for next round! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3478&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=33) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=33) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Super Mario Bros. vs Ninja Gaiden vs The Legend of Zelda vs Metroid 2009 _source: Super Mario Bros. vs Ninja Gaiden vs The Legend of Zelda vs Metroid 2009 (revid 65271)_ ## Results **Round Two** Sunday, May 10th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Division 1972-1988 Semi Final - **Match \#:** 34 - **Match Date:** Sunday, May 10th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** The Legend of Zelda - 39.49% Super Mario Bros. - 38.86% Metroid - 12.02% Ninja Gaiden - 9.52% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Mario 1 first place (4pts) - 59.46% Mario 1 second place (2pts) - 23.60% Zelda 1 second place (4pts) - 53.98% Zelda 1 first place (2pts) - 28.65% - **Advancing Prediction:** Super Mario Bros. - 83.06% (31,809) The Legend of Zelda - 82.63% (31,644) I can understand one or two games sneaking into the second round only to get SFFd to hell, but two in the exact same match? This was just... bad. Expected given what Mario did to Duck Hunt, but still bad. Have some pride. Not that Metroid will ever figure it out against Nintendo -- and Ninja Gaiden won't ever figure it out period, it got very lucky in the first round -- but still. Pride. The match to see here was Mario 1 vs Zelda 1, but as you can see by this final result, it wasn't much of a match. This was all pre-debate match hype, but for once it was legitimate. Zelda 1 scored 43% on Mario 3 in 2004. It's not too unreasonable to ask Zelda to make up a 7% gap on Mario 3's weaker older brother, especially given the lack of any real evidence. We had two polls and guesswork to go on. Anyone who said they were 100% confident one way or the other was just doing the standard annoying pre-contest know-it-all Board 8 thing, because a good case could be made either way. Zelda is generally the SFF king, but Mario 1 is much more respected among gamers than the original Zelda. As for the two polls: - - Favorite Zelda and Favorite Mario. Zelda 1 got 7.63%, Mario 1 got 6.56%. Both bad performances, but Mario's bad score came in the face of a fellow NES title, Mario 3. Zelda 1 had no other NES games to compete with. This was my reason for picking Mario 1 \> Zelda 1 here, and it was as good a reason as any other given how close this was pre-match. The match itself was over within seconds and Mario 1 dominated (relatively) based upon expectations for a close match. However, this match helped set up one of the weirdest runs we've ever seen in a contest. Zelda 1 might have lost pretty easily here, but it would have its day later on. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Time to watch Nintendo's Big Two go head to head for the first time this season! In my bracket I picked Zelda \> Mario here, and did so without giving it too much thought. Sure Mario 3 managed nearly 57% on the game directly, but M3 is universally recognized as the crown jewel of the NES- anything from that era was going to fall down on its knees before it (well, unless it was riding high on the "Final Fantasy" brand name). Mario 1 was a different story... sure it has the respect, and sure it has the same enormous playrate, but no one actually loves the game like they do 3. That monumental beatdown back in R1 really opened my eyes though; maybe this game really IS closer to 3 than I'd ever have expected, at least indirectly? In fact I was so impressed that I would have no choice but to take Mario 1 over Zelda 1 in a direct matchup right now. ...but as we all know, this isn't a direct matchup. Mario's huge playrate gives it an opportunity to score big time blowouts in this format when up against games no one cares about, but we have to remember that blowout power doesn't necessarily mean extreme 4way strength. Once the super-fodder is removed and every option in the poll has a decent fanbase behind it, I think that the format begins to play more and more into Zelda's hands; yes its very possible that the early Mario games have MORE fans than the early Zeldas, but I'm of the opinion that the Zelda base is more dedicated, which could make all the difference. I also think that the competition helps Zelda out ever so slightly- an adventure with RPG elements does a better job of standing out against all these platformer/shooter/action titles. So all in all I've decided to stick with my bracket and give Zelda just the slightest edge in this one. My only other point is that Ninja Gaiden probably holds up a tiny bit better than the numbers I'm seeing here, just because it once again gets to serve as something of an anti-Nintendo choice (though it hurts that this time around there's no mistaking it for the Xbox version). Speaking of the match pic, yikes, that's the perfect super-iconic look for Mario! Very tempted to flip flop over to it... but no, have to stay strong. Final decision quickly before I change my mind: - The Legend of Zelda - 40.28% - Super Mario Bros. - 40.16% - Metroid - 11.34% - Ninja Gaiden - 8.22% Yeah, just don't know about that! ### Next Day Review Well sir, weird to think that Mario 1 is so close to Mario 3 indirectly (I'm sure it still gets crushed head to head), but after today's result there doesn't seem to be any way around it. NG is still a supreme chump, true, but nothing involving Zelda or Metroid is a pushover on this site and yet Mario pounded their heads in and never broke a sweat. If M1 holds down Z1 that far again next round, and then MM2 arrives to bring down the NES options just a tiny bit more, perhaps my surprise upset where Tetris is the independent entry could... alright alright, so I give up on that one! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3479&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=34) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=34) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Sonic the Hedgehog vs Street Fighter II vs Super Mario Bros. 3 vs Secret of Monkey Island 2009 _source: Sonic the Hedgehog vs Street Fighter II vs Super Mario Bros. 3 vs Secret of Monkey Island 2009 (revid 88465)_ ## Results **Round Two** Monday, May 11th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Division 1989-1991 Semi Final - **Match \#:** 35 - **Match Date:** Monday, May 11th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Mario Bros. 3 - 50.44% Sonic the Hedgehog - 21.33% Street Fighter II - 20.47% Secret of Monkey Island - 7.93% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Mario 3 first place (4pts) - 48.89% Mario 3 second place (2pts) - 36.80% Sonic second place (4pts) - 23.86% Sonic first place (2pts) - 18.69% - **Advancing Prediction:** Super Mario Bros. 3 - 85.69% (32,816) Sonic the Hedgehog - 42.55% (16,295) Haha 113114. Anyway, after SF2 disappointed in the first round, a lot of people held hope that Mario 3 would SFF Sonic 1 enough to sneak SF2 into second place. It wasn't too far-fetched, especially given Sonic 1 and Street Fighter 2 wasn't decided by some impossible gap in round 1. It was 10,000 votes, which can be made up by extreme SFF. Ironically, we saw Mario 3 SFF Sonic 1, but not by enough to sneak SF2 into second place. I've lost count of how many "SFFd but still won" matches we ended up getting in this contest, but the number has to be at least 5 or 10. Mario 3 without question SFFd Sonic 1 in this match, and can we please stop with theories about how Sonic and Mario don't have extreme overlap? They clearly do. It explains this match, the Mario World \> Sonic 2 beating and the weird Mario/Shadow match all in one package. They overlap. A lot. Period. I'd love for this to translate into a Mario vs Sonic match in a character contest; it's long overdue. But even with Sonic getting SFFd, Street Fighter could no take full advantage. The match was even for a couple hours, then Street Fighter 2 built up a 200 vote lead overnight. And like clockwork, the Sonic day vote kicked in, allowing Sonic to turn an even match into a fairly easy 2200 vote victory. A match like this might have been exciting a few years ago, but not now with all the past trends we know about. It makes you miss the pre-stat days, in a way. Now? We can take past matches and call the trends down to every minute detail, and some people in the stats topic can tell you when something will happen and by how many votes with stunning accuracy. It's sad in a way, but it also can't be helped. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction I'd been counting on SFII/Sonic 1 to be a tight battle directly, but that it would swing in Ryu's favor once the king of the Marios arrived to dish out the platformer beatdown. But uhh, yikes did SF ever get its head handed to it last round! And double yikes, did SF4 ever drop the ball! After those two results I was sure that everyone and their mother would have bailed on the Street Fighter series, yet I check the Crew picks and... EVERYBODY is betting against Sonic (well except for the guy in last place, but I'm not sure if I really count him anymore), whoa! I guess it makes some sense- Sonic has never failed to disappoint in the 4way setting once decent competition arrived, Ryu has already proven that this fanbase can make a run if given a favorable LFF path, and Mario 3 is a lock to eat up a huge percentage of the votes (especially after Mario 1 went above and beyond). But even with all that plus my bracket backing it, I'm not entirely sold. This is one that I'll have to decide based on the match pic. Let's see... Sonic gets his classic title screen, pretty good considering this exact look got the job done for him last time. But sweeeet, SFII tops it with the perfect super-nostalgic ingame screenshot! Ryu posing all cool after unleashing some kind of devastating combo on (probably) the second more popular character of the series... the only way it could be better would be if he had just unleashed a Hadouken. Alright, that's enough to win me over; I'll stick with my bracket here, but would be very surprised if this didn't end up being a close battle for 2nd place no matter who takes it! - Super Mario Bros. 3 - 56.06% - Street Fighter II - 18.49% - Sonic the Hedgehog - 18.43% - Secret of Monkey Island - 7.02% Hmm, I like it QUITE a bit. ### Next Day Review Bah... after Street Fighter pulled a stall on the second update and starting making cuts afterward transience told us not to get excited because this was "going to be Mario RPG \> SFII all over again." I held out hope that the result could be different since there was a MARIO in the way, but as it turns out he was right. What a weird poll... Mario 3 easily beating Sonic and SFII combined is by no means a bad result, and yet its coming up something like 7% below our expectations here, and failed to make major noise with the Day Vote as I'd been expecting. I guess you've just got to chalk that up to Monkey Island's fanbase being super dedicated, the battle for 2nd place stealing some votes away, and maybe that less-than-iconic picture. I'm sure M3's still fine- we were all just coming in a little high off the Mario Kool Aid after that very impressive takedown of Zelda. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3480&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=35) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=35) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Super Mario World vs Final Fantasy vs Final Fantasy IV vs Mega Man 3 2009 _source: Super Mario World vs Final Fantasy vs Final Fantasy IV vs Mega Man 3 2009 (revid 65273)_ ## Results **Round Two** Tuesday, May 12th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Division 1989-1991 Semi Final - **Match \#:** 36 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, May 12th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Mario World - 37.01% Final Fantasy IV - 25.59% Mega Man 3 - 19.59% Final Fantasy - 17.99% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** SMW first place (4pts) - 50.43% SMW second place (2pts) - 16.89% FF4 second place (4pts) - 36.18% FF4 first place (2pts) - 11.73% - **Advancing Prediction:** Super Mario World - 67.32% (25,781) Final Fantasy IV - 47.91% (18,348) I'd like to take this opportunity to apologize for all those FF1 \> FF4 debates I started leading up to this match. I really did think there was a possibility of this upset given the first round, but I was *clearly* wrong. The original Final Fantasy got crushed decisively here, regardless of whatever SFF and LFF from Mega Man 3 was going on. My apologies on that front, but you're insane if you ever thought one of the Final Fantasies was going to sneak through both Mario games -- especially after this match. Mario World might have sucked it up in round 1, but it was clearly in A-Game Mode from here on out, and Mario 3 was equally dominant. For Final Fantasy 4 to get through to Round 4, you would have to give ALL of Final Fantasy and Mega Man 3's votes to it and hope for a big split. And even then, good luck. In reality, I think this match proved there's plenty of overlap between Mario World and FF4, signaling FF4's death in the following round. And how couldn't you? Mario World let Final Fantasy get 45% on it, then it goes out and nearly gets 70% on FF4. That's not a coincidence, especially when it's fair given this match to assume FF4 is a stronger game than FF1. Oh, and a note about Mega Man 3. Did it not *royally* suck here or what? Mega Man 2 performed passably on Tetris this round and Mega Man X did pretty well given its first round exit, but I think we can safely assume the series as a whole bombed in this contest. Then you look at Mario Kart doing well before realizing the Mega Man \> Mario Kart result in the series contest. Madness, I tell you. You'd think the series contest results would translate into this contest a bit more accurately than they did. tl;dr version: Mario World is a beast, the Mega Man series bombed, I'm an idiot for arguing FF1 \> FF4, you're an idiot for arguing FF4 \> Mario 3 or Mario World regardless of split, and at the end of the day only KrahenProphet can claim to not be an idiot. It's why these contests rock; we can debate stuff for weeks, but only one person is going to look smart after the final match :D ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction tonight is the most important match of the Contest, in my opinion. Maybe that's putting it a touch strongly... but it's the early round matchup that is going to do the most to effect how the bracket plays out down the line. So maybe it would make more sense to call it the cornerstone of the bracket, or the lynchpin? In any case, I decided early on that tomorrow's winner would determine which game ends up representing the 8-bit division in the Contest Final, and I stand by that. If an FF makes it out, the Square games gets a free ride for a bunch of rounds until LttP knocks it out to make the Final, but if MM3 could slide past that would allow Zelda 1 to get further until a double Zelda poll would put Mario 3 in the Championship instead. ...unfortunately, I took what I now realize was the wrong upset. I've never understood all the hype for FF4, and since 1 vs 4 was going to be a tossup in my mind I decided to bypass that choice altogether by saying the MM3 could powerslide past due to LFF. And I'd still argue that it was a good decision IN THEORY; the problem is that in reality MM has just not been up to snuff this season, and that furthermore it seems like any 8/16 bit platformer most likely gets murdered by Mario 1, 3, or World. So I've got to break from my bracket and accept that MM3 finishes in last place here (though I still think it can keep this closer than most expect). However my doubts regarding FF4 have far from subsided! I'm sure it's a great game and all, but I just don't get the impression that most of the Square fanbase on this site has played anything earlier than FF6 (and this year it's looking like even 6 might have taken a tumble), and so when given the option of two games they don't know much about, I'm thinking they mostly take the original. Especially when 1 nabs such an iconic picture with appealing sprites (seriously, even gamers who haven't touched the early FF series are familiar with Black Mage and Fighter) while the other option gets stuck with the "FF2" label that fewer people know and a big blob of blur as a screenshot. Yep, jumping off one upset train just to get on the other, final decision! - Super Mario World - 38.79% - Final Fantasy - 21.62% - Final Fantasy IV - 21.57% - Mega Man 3 - 18.02% This should be an exciting poll check... ### Next Day Review Haha, this is just too funny. Two days ago we (by that I mean the Oracle average) had way too much faith in Zelda and underestimated Mario 1 by 7.33%. Then yesterday we didn't have quite enough respect for Sonic and SF, so we went OVER by 1.76% on Mario 3. Which got us all thinking that lowballing Mario was a good idea... but instead SMW's going to smoke us by about 14%! That's why I love these Contests: 7 years and 11 Contests and 62 matches later and we still have no idea how to even peg Mario, of all things! But, uh yeah, really shocked at FF4 and embarrassed at my lack of respect for Square fans- I was sure FF1 would pull all of the "important" and "original" votes and manage a win despite being the worse game, just like Mario 1 \> Zelda 1. And boy is my face red for thinking a Mega Man game might be worth ANYTHING AT ALL! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3481&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=36) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=36) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Super Metroid vs Super Mario Kart vs The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past vs Donkey Kong Country 2009 _source: Super Metroid vs Super Mario Kart vs The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past vs Donkey Kong Country 2009 (revid 65274)_ ## Results **Round Two** Wednesday, May 13th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Division 1992-1994 Semi Final - **Match \#:** 37 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, May 13th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: A Link to the Past - 47.65% Super Mario Kart - 21.24% Super Metroid - 20.14% Donkey Kong Country - 11.52% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Zelda:ALttP first place (4pts) - 41.58% Zelda:ALttP second place (2pts) - 29.42% Super Metroid second place (4pts) - 22.00% Super Metroid first place (2pts) - 17.70% - **Advancing Prediction:** Link to the Past - 71.00% (27,190) Super Metroid - 39.70% (15,204) This match ended up having a really close fight for second place, but with two major issues. One, Sonic 3 and Doom choking in the first round turned this match into a big SNES clusterfuck and it really took away from how close this was. Two, we already saw this same match like 3 weeks prior and it was clear within minutes we were getting a replay, but with fewer vote totals for Mario Kart and Metroid to work with. But before getting into that, it's worth noting how impressive Link to the Past was here. Even though it was clearly SFFing all three games in the poll, there were still 3 SNES games here to drag it down a bit. It still broke over 50%. This solidified it as the odds-on favorite to make the final from the top half of the bracket along with FF7, especially given we were on track to have 2 Mario games in the quarterfinals along with LTTP and FF7. As for Metroid and Mario Kart, they went out and nearly perfectly repeated every trend from their first round match. So even though the loser of the round 2 rematch was to be eliminated from the contest, this never had the tension that makes close matches so fun. One could even argue this was one of the worst close matches we've ever had. Tell me if any of this sounds familiar: Super Metroid builds up a 550 vote lead for half the night; Mario Kart begins chipping away at 3 a.m. and isn't slowed down until halfway through the DSV when the lead is 130; Metroid somehow wins the second half of the DSV and gets its lead back to 300; Mario Kart wins the early parts of the ASV, but gets inexplicably stalled a bunch and isn't able to tie the match until 7 p.m.; Metroid wins the evening vote and gets its lead back up to 100; Mario Kart makes a last stand, but Metroid wins the second night vote to escape with the match. Even during the parts of Mario Kart's comeback where it looked like this round would be different, there was always the looming feeling that Super Metroid would win it with the second night vote if things were close. Well things were close, and Metroid won to the surprise of no one. This would have been a great first round 1v1 match, but it was uninspired in this format. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction I see some extremely high Zelda picks, but I'm not realling feelin' it. Unlike Mario, Zelda hasn't displayed strong blowout potential so far this season, and I'm also thinking that its such an obvious first place against the all-Nintendo competition that people might be throwing their votes elsewhere. Especially if there's a tight battle for 2nd place going on, which I imagine there will be! All in all this looks much more like a Mario 3 situation than what SMW saw today, so if LttP can still manage 50% I'd be quite impressed. Now originally I was thinking that Metroid's dedicated base would do the best job of avoiding the Zelda SFF to allow it a tight victory, but after the series has disappointed time and again in the last month my faith is shaken. And even going back to 2004- heck, DKC nearly held up better against LttP than SM managed! When you factor in how MK64 went to town on Star Fox, I'm forced to push this into "too close to call" territory. Which means its time to employ the tiebreaker, aka the match pic overanalysis! Whoa, perfect look for LttP- everyone loves the master sword, that's a nice sprite pose for Link, and the title image is big and bold. DKC gets another solid pic pretty close to what worked for it last time, but I have to mark it down a notch for Diddy being almost fully covered up by DK. Super Met, eh... I love the very big title, but Samus seems to be extremely susceptible to underperformances when she doesn't look her best, and I think people expect the classic orange suit from her, not this purple super-suit. Lastly SMK- what a nostalgia overload! It's going to be very difficult for anyone who played countless hours of battle mode back in grade school to vote for any of the other three options with a great look like that. Okay, it's settled: - Zelda: A Link to the Past - 49.86% - Super Mario Kart - 19.84% - Super Metroid - 19.80% - Donkey Kong Country - 10.51% Feeling pretty good about this! ### Next Day Review Hmm, I suppose that's one more knock against same fanbase/same era/same company matches... even when two entrants are clearly neck and neck in strength to the point where the result comes down to the final 15 minutes, watching it is still a good deal less exciting than your Frog/Master Chiefs and StarCraft/Halos of the past. First because the voting base is so similar that there are no massive Day/Night vote swings, but (IMO) even more importantly because fanbases just aren't able to get a good hate going for one another. I mean even if SMK is your favorite game, is it REALLY possible to be spitting venom at a guy who voted a classic like Super Met instead? I don't think so. And where could you even go to rally for either of the choices? Seems no matter what site you hit something like 40% of the voters there would end up picking the other choice. I guess this also partially speaks to why despite having so many "good" polls, its almost impossible for something in the 4way format to be considered a "great" match. But I digress! Pretty good result for LttP, but I'm much more impressed that DKC was able to hang right in there against such tough and (such overlapping) competition. Atta boy DK! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3482&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=37) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=37) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Final Fantasy VI vs The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening vs Sonic the Hedgehog 2 vs Mortal Kombat II 2009 _source: Final Fantasy VI vs The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening vs Sonic the Hedgehog 2 vs Mortal Kombat II 2009 (revid 65275)_ ## Results **Round Two** Thursday, May 14th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Division 1992-1994 Semi Final - **Match \#:** 38 - **Match Date:** Thursday, May 14th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy VI - 36.56% Zelda: Link's Awakening - 27.79% Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - 20.89% Mortal Kombat II - 15.08% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** FF6 first place (4pts) - 42.13% FF6 second place (2pts) - 12.93% Zelda:LA second place (4pts) - 14.78% Zelda:LA first place (2pts) - 21.57% - **Advancing Prediction:** Final Fantasy VI - 55.06% (21,086) Link's Awakening - 36.35% (13,921) For the second time in a week, we had the poll result do a near-perfect staircase; ie, the match is barely worth commenting on. But unlike the Fallout 3 \> Halo 3 match, this had an unbelievably fun first five minutes. Because for five minutes, Link's Awakening scared the bejeezus out of Final Fantasy 6 and kept the match even. FF6 obviously went on to win in staircase fashion, but a ton of damage was done in that five minutes. Remember when FF6 led LTTP for a few hours in 2004, and it was more or less the beginning of the end for LTTP? Same deal here, but backwards. Any and all FF6 \> LTTP pipe dreams died in those five minutes, regardless of any splitting LTTP would deal with. If you let Link's Awakening threaten you for even five minutes, your odds of beating Link to the Past in the divisional final are flat-out zero. Nothing. Especially when you've looked like crap for two rounds going in. I don't know when or why FF6 inherited FF7's voting trends, but they don't work the same. FF7 is a demigod in game contests, it's allowed to suck early. 6 is not. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction I'm afraid I have to agree that this isn't going to be an especially thrilling match. Which is a weird thing to say considering that the top two franchises on the site are represented, and so is another in the top five(ish)! FF6 really disappointed me last time around, so you think that would be something to watch for, but even there I'm not sold... Sonic is obviously very Nintendo these days and then the original MKs are generally associated with the Genesis, so already we're talking about 6 getting the full advantage of a sore thumb against plenty of overlap; even pushing up near the 40% it managed last time wouldn't necessarily blow me away. Zelda I guess has more to prove since its once again in a less favorable position, but even with a strong showing here it would be tough to get excited, what with LttP dropping by to rain on the parade next round. Bah. I suppose the most interesting thing to watch for will be if Sonic 2 can match MMX's performance from last round. And I think it'll have a good chance to do so! Just like 4 before it, 6 has been given a very underwhelming picture here while LA is kind of in the same "non iconic" boat as Mario 3, so I wouldn't expect something great like what we saw out of Mario 1 or World or LttP tonight. And MK looks pretty stylin' as well- maybe they'll be able to keep it close to Zelda than most are thinking, allowing FF to run away with the win in the process. I'll make that my final decision. - Final Fantasy VI - 36.73% - Zelda: Link's Awakening - 25.80% - Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - 19.99% - Mortal Kombat II - 17.48% ...errr, not so sure about that pick now that I look it over again. Oh well! ### Next Day Review Welp, appears as though I just about called this one correctly- FF6 is coming quite close to matching its R1 percentage, but even so no one seems to be at all impressed. Unfortunately I was way off on Zelda. And MK2. And Sonic. Bah! Uhh, not much else to say about that result (except that this was way too close to the dreaded 40/30/20/10 split for my taste). ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3483&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=38) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=38) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## GoldenEye 007 vs Super Mario RPG vs Final Fantasy VII vs Mario Kart 64 2009 _source: GoldenEye 007 vs Super Mario RPG vs Final Fantasy VII vs Mario Kart 64 2009 (revid 65276)_ ## Results **Round Two** Friday, May 15th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Division 1995-1997 Semi Final - **Match \#:** 39 - **Match Date:** Friday, May 15th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy VII - 47.87% GoldenEye 007 - 20.78% Mario Kart 64 - 17.05% Super Mario RPG - 14.62% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** FF7 first place (4pts) - 59.19% FF7 second place (2pts) - 25.20% GoldenEye second place (4pts) - 35.77% GoldenEye first place (2pts) - 23.69% - **Advancing Prediction:** Final Fantasy VII - 84.39% (32,318) GoldenEye 007 - 59.46% (22,771) This was a fairly expected result, especially with SMRPG getting into this match over Resident Evil 2. SMRPG and Mario Kart 64 may have had minimal overlap, but both games have "Mario" in the title. Even a little bit of overlap could have made a difference, but this was likely the same minimal overlap as with Mario Kart 64 and Goldeneye. Both were N64 titles. In the end, Goldeneye \> SMRPG \> Mario Kart 64 is likely the intrinsic strength of the three games playing out like it was supposed to. One could argue Goldeneye disappointed here, but of course Goldeneye was going to get killed in the face of FF7. FF7 overlaps with everything on this site. Speaking of which, the FF7/OOT comparison was the only story to be had here. Some will argue OOT had a better second round performance, but I once again disagree. OOT did 2% better against weaker competition, and allowed said weaker competition to score similar results. Just compare each game. Goldeneye vs Final Fantasy 8 is a tossup at worst, but Goldeneye probably wins that match. Super Mario RPG would crush Starcraft pretty easily at this point, and we've already covered Mario Kart 64 versus Final Fantasy 9. I don't see how FF9 getting 20% on Ocarina in an SFF match is any better or worse than Mario Kart 64 getting 20% on FF7 in what may or may not have also been an SFF match. Frankly I think it's an easy match in Kart 64's favor and those arguing otherwise are blind FF9 fans, but it's not like we'll ever see a 1v1 match to settle this. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Tonight ought to be much more entertaining. We get to see the 2nd(!) strongest game on the site in action again, which is always fun, and better yet it got about the perfect draw here so the sky's the limit. Sure these are three very strong games, but Square always brings its A game against good Nintendo competition so I don't think 50 is entirely out of the question. Would be extremely impressive though, especially since it will be somewhat hampered by that less-than-iconic (but more-than-hilarious!) match pic. The bottom three is where the real interest lies for this one... is MRPG ruined by a superior role playing choice? Does two "Mario" choices spell massive LFF? Will the N64 options bring each other down, considering they were the holy grail of 4 player multi for three straight years? Call me biased, but I think Goldeneye redeems itself by scoring an easier than expected win over the other two options. It nailed a very strong/iconic match pic that plays to its multi strengths, and something just felt fishy about that first round to me... got to imagine it blows by MRPG much more easily this time, especially considering how that game is in about the worst position imaginable (I've always contended that Mario RPG would be a beast if matched against non-Square and non-Mario/Zelda opponents, but this time it has no such luck). As for MK64, ehhh, I still think it's the strongest Kart, but GE is so far ahead of Super Metroid that it shouldn't be a major concern. And that's why I'm going to say - Final Fantasy VII - 47.45% - GoldenEye 007 - 21.51% - Mario Kart 64 - 17.02% - Super Mario RPG - 14.02% Go GE! ### Next Day Review Whooo, now THAT'S more like it! GE totally redeems itself and once again has people talking it up as a Top Ten game on this site (well... Top 15 at least), while Mario RPG makes GE's R1 look better by showing that it's a legit upper midcarder after all. As for MK64, ouch. Alright, so it was ugly, but I think you've got to chalk that up to being the lesser Mario option plus getting 4way multiplayer SFFed by Goldeneye- I still stand by MK64 being a serious threat (when it can avoid Nintendo) and the strongest of the Karts. As for FF7, ehhhh, I don't know what to say. 47% is solid against such good competition, but there's no way Ocarina would have been held under 50 given the same kind of circumstances. Luckily I'll get a chance to put my predition where my mouth is in just a couple days here (though I think OoT's at a disadvantage since SC is going to pull a more independent non-Squintendo percentage in that one). Should be fun to watch! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3484&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=39) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=39) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Super Mario 64 vs Castlevania: Symphony of the Night vs Chrono Trigger vs Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island 2009 _source: Super Mario 64 vs Castlevania: Symphony of the Night vs Chrono Trigger vs Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island 2009 (revid 88334)_ ## Results **Round Two** Saturday, May 16th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Division 1995-1997 Semi Final - **Match \#:** 40 - **Match Date:** Saturday, May 16th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Chrono Trigger - 41.39% Super Mario 64 - 29.93% Castlevania: Symphony of the Night - 17.60% SMW2: Yoshi's Island - 11.20% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Mario 64 first place (4pts) - 44.70% Mario 64 second place (2pts) - 25.67% CT second place (4pts) - 38.52% CT first place (2pts) - 30.89% - **Advancing Prediction:** Super Mario 64 - 70.37% (26,949) Chrono Trigger - 69.41% (26,581) "*Brother*... it's been too long!" -Ocelot Contests just aren't the same without a solid Mario v Crono match or two. This was a beautiful, *beautiful* match. I love Chrono Trigger, but I love Mario 64 a tad bit more. Seeing Symphony of the Night become a bottom-feeder sucked, and it equally sucked seeing Yoshi's Island get SFFd to a 7% last place finish. But for once, a 7% last place finish was relevant. More on that in a second. Pre-contest, I swore up and down that this would be a tossup, and picked Chrono Trigger \> Mario 64 solely because of Chrono Trigger's 2004 performance. Not only did it defeat Mario 3, but a 60-40 win over Mario World is no joke. I've always figured Mario 64 was around Mario world's level (best guess I can make given the OOT \> Mario 64 SFF result), and that even a slightly weaker Chrono Trigger could beat Mario 64 heads-up especially given the recent DS Chrono Trigger release. Early on, it was clear Chrono Trigger was in trouble. Mario 64 kept the poll even for a solid 30 minutes before the CT night vote kicked in, and even then it took until 2 hours in for Chrono Trigger to get any momentum going. Once the night vote kicked in, Chrono Trigger built up a lead, but Mario 64 was still managing to score some prolonged stalls. CT managed to build up a lead of 650, but it felt like one of those really frail, "This could blow up in my face at any time" leads. And it was. The morning vote hit, and Mario 64 began dominating the poll. The lead was gone by 9:30, and then Mario started ballin' all over Crono's face. By the time this match ended, it was a close-match-turned-3200-vote-blowout. Crono's performance come the morning vote was embarrassing, but not at all unsurprising. I love CT and all, but this has become a very debilitating problem. Blowing big leads is supposed to be very rare in contests, but all things Chrono Trigger are turning it into a routine. 4000 vote swings are *not supposed to be common*, but CT is making us expect it. That's legitimately insane, and this result was one of those rare results that altered an entire contest midstream. Remember, CT \> Mario 64 was the expected result, and we were supposed to see a hotly contested LTTP vs FF7/FF6/CT match with a possible LTTP \> FF7 upset, and the following FF7/CT/Mario 1/Mario 3 match was supposed to be an aesthetic Mario vs Crono clash. And beyond this, remember all the pre-contest chatter about a potential CT/LTTP rematch getting ruined by the format? Of course you do. At this rate, there would be no CT/LTTP match at all. For round 3 to have a CT \> Mario 64 result, CT would need a perfect storm of Goldeneye leeching the hell out of Mario 64 while Final Fantasy 7 barely affected CT at all. It was possible, but CT's years-long track record of choking paired with Mario's dominance this contest put the odds around 3% or so. It was bad. As for Yoshi's Island legitimately affecting this poll, one could claim an SNES relationship with Chrono Trigger and a Mario relationship with Mario 64. Rarely do you see a last place game do so badly, yet be so widely debated. If you weren't in the stats topic for the CT/Mario 64 round 3 debates, you missed everything that makes the stats topic the place to be in a contest. We have a legitimate reputation for being elitist and closed-minded, but we're still the best topic during contest season anyway. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Not sure if there will be anything too exciting to keep an eye on tonight. Really wish we could have seen Mario 64 vs Chrono Trigger in a fair fight; would have been an excellent chance to test M64 vs SMW and also to see how far CT has fallen relative to Mario in the past five years. Instead Yoshi's Island is there to mess everything up, and then next round gets even worse thanks to FF7 and GE showing up to have a major impact on both games (though how huge and in what direction we still have no clue). A few weeks back people were trying to inject some kind of interest into this one by suggesting that Castlevania could challenge Mario 64 thanks to the help YI would be providing, but come on now, let's not get silly. Yoshi's in a horrible position- bigger, more popular Mario on one side and bigger, more popular SNES game on the other. The game is going to get crunched to such a tiny percentage that I can't see it destroying 64 to that extent, especially not after its frankly awful showing in R1. SotN's still a decent game and ought to pull a respectable percentage, but I'm envisioning healthy gaps between all 4 entries here, to the point where no position will ever be in doubt. On the plus side... Touch Fuzzy, Get Dizzy, whoo! Was hoping we'd see that level last round, glad to see it pop up here. Also at first I thought the guy on the right in the SotN pic was Captain Falcon, so maybe it will overperform by 10% like in that Diddy Kong match. Final percentage: - Chrono Trigger - 41% - Super Mario 64 - 33% - Castlevania: Symphony of the Night - 17% - Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island - 9% Okay, so I made that up in like 2 seconds when I realized it was 11:59 and I didn't have an Oracle pick in yet. BUT, it's pretty close to the 40/30/20/10 split I would have tried for if given more time to think, so I like it! ### Next Day Review Oh man, what an incredible run Mario has been on lately. The SMW result was nuts, yes, but I've got to think this showing from Mario 64 makes even LESS sense. I mean think about it... CT put up 70.30% directly on Yoshi's Island last time around. Sure SMW1 \>\> SMW2, but you'd have to figure CT could have pushed that toward 75 if not for drawing such terrible opponents (two other SNES RPGs, both with dedicated fanbases = yikes). But today the sore thumb turned around and was pointing back in CT's direction- no other RPGs, dual Mario options that would surely have users anti-voting the series (as they did FF the other day); in short the perfect storm for a great showing. But not only does it lose, Mario 64's currently scoring 51.84% on it directly! Combined the two Mario games are putting up 55.97% on CT- I guess it wouldn't be all that shocking given Mario/Crono '05 and how much everything CT might have fallen off since then, but boy does it ever look weird in the light of that R1 performance. Luckily for Chrono, Goldeneye is showing up to limit Mario's damage next round... although will FF7 crush CT so bad that it won't even matter? That result is completely up in the air after seeing this IMO- not even an outright GE advancement would shock me! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3485&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=40) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=40) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Pokémon Red/Blue/Yellow vs The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask vs Metal Gear Solid vs Pokémon Gold/Silver 2009 _source: Pokémon Red/Blue/Yellow vs The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask vs Metal Gear Solid vs Pokémon Gold/Silver 2009 (revid 65278)_ ## Results **Round Two** Sunday, May 17th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Division 1998-2000 Semi Final - **Match \#:** 41 - **Match Date:** Sunday, May 17th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Metal Gear Solid - 35.31% Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow - 29.09% Zelda: Majora's Mask - 22.31% Pokemon Gold/Silver - 13.76% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** MGS first place (4pts) - 32.02% MGS second place (2pts) - 36.10% Pokemon RBY second place (4pts) - 19.36% Pokemon RBY first place (2pts) - 33.01% - **Advancing Prediction:** Metal Gear Solid - 68.12% (26,087) Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow - 52.37% (20,056) Not only did Pokemon collectively combine for 45% of the vote, but the entire poll scored 132,000 votes despite there being three first party Nintendo games. You can look at these very final numbers and see the trouble Metal Gear Solid was in next round. RBY held up well despite GSC and Majora's Mask in the way. Replacing Majora's Mask with Ocarina of Time and removing GSC altogether spelled terrible for Metal Gear Solid, especially given MGS can't pull off miracles unless it's dealing with low vote totals. And this is just from looking at the final numbers. RBY stayed even with MGS for a little while, and MGS didn't truly begin pulling away until the poll was an hour old. If MGS had all this trouble with GSC clearly leeching the hell out RBY, how could it beat an unhindered RBY? The short answer is it wouldn't. Gold/Silver/Crystal and Majora's Mask are worth mentioning here, because they held up *extremely* well given the circumstances. Majora's Mask especially was an unquestioned bomb in the first round, but this match showed it had some bite in it and was perhaps SFFd to a huge degree by Pokemon RBY. GSC, despite a last place finish, leeched RBY quite a lot and cost it a first place finish. RBY would get a chance to prove itself without a younger brother around to suck up votes in round 3, but for now it had to deal with second place. The true loser in this poll was Metal Gear Solid. It's rare you see a game come in first place by nearly 10,000 votes and look the worst, but it looked like *crap* here. MGS vs 3 Nintendo games and it doesn't begin pulling away for an hour? Only 33% of the total vote with Nintendo splitting three ways? Bad performance in every way, it just happened to land in first place. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction After RBY put up 51% you may have seen me playing around with some numbers in this topic trying to find a way for MM to pull back ahead in R2 until I eventually gave up (because I couldn't see G/S/C holding up well enough to make it possible). After all the nonsensical stuff this last week though, I just don't know anymore... Mario World made a huge boost on its R1 percentage thanks to voters rebelling against a half-Final Fantasy poll... perhaps Majora could likewise hold up better than we expect if people decide to vote against Pokemon? If Mario can do it we surely shouldn't count Zelda out entirely, especially now that its the only N64 option in the poll rather than just 1 of 3. The trouble with that theory is how MGS is the much better anti-Nintendo/anti-Pokemon magnet, and since it was able to jettison all of the mature/PSX competition that held it back in R1, I AM counting on Snake doing the near-impossible and improving on his R1 percentage against stronger competition. Still though, I could see the Zelda name doing an okay job of attracting the non-Pokemon votes as well, and as I result I think Majora ought to be able to keep this closer to Red than most are expecting (though the end result will probably never be in doubt). Also, I get the impression that Gold will do a better job of avoiding SFF and Last Place Factor than people are giving it credit for- just a hunch, but I'm going with it. Long story short, I'll say... - Metal Gear Solid - 37.20% - Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow - 27.18% - The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - 22.36% - Pokemon Gold/Silver - 13.26% Seems fairly okay, I think? ### Next Day Review Holy junk, the Pokemon Series with over 47% of the vote against the combined might of MGS and Zelda? In a match that's (somehow) going to draw over 130k votes and will possibly be the most popular poll of the season so far? This site is Pokemon-crazy! But come on now MGS, you can't even manage 1/3 of the vote against what is essentially just two Nintendo games, even when you stand out like crazy in the match pic? For shame! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3486&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=41) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=41) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Final Fantasy VIII vs Starcraft vs The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs Final Fantasy IX 2009 _source: Final Fantasy VIII vs Starcraft vs The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs Final Fantasy IX 2009 (revid 70847)_ ## Results **Round Two** Monday, May 18th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Division 1998-2000 Semi Final - **Match \#:** 42 - **Match Date:** Monday, May 18th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 44.46% Final Fantasy VIII - 22.07% Starcraft - 20.28% Final Fantasy IX - 13.57% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Zelda:OoT first place (4pts) - 56.02% Zelda:OoT second place (2pts) - 24.30% FF8 second place (4pts) - 16.06% FF8 first place (2pts) - 10.99% - **Advancing Prediction:** Ocarina of Time - 80.32% (30,759) Final Fantasy VIII - 27.05% (10,359) We've already covered why FF7's performance in round 2 was more impressive than Ocarina's here, but thankfully there was a decent match to be had past Ocarina's blowout first place victory. The final result does not do justice how legitimately scared Final Fantasy 8 was early on in this match. Thanks to Final Fantasy 9's leeching of 8 and Zelda destroying everything, Starcraft's independent fanbase was able to sneak it into second place early. After how badly Starcraft sucked in the first round, all the ghosts from 2004 came out of the closet and Starcraft once again miraculously found itself in a position to cause damage. And given the circumstance of the opponents, it wasn't unreasonable to think Starcraft could pull this one off. Pulling off a big comeback is difficult when you're in a fourway poll against your own fans and Ocarina of Time. But this time, there would be no miracle rally and no miracle finish. After Starcraft built up a 100 vote lead, FF8 stalled for awhile before the FF overnight vote kicked in and the floodgates opened. FF8 literally erased the lead in 30 minutes once 1:50 a.m. hit, and then 8 went on to score an easy 6000 vote win. No insane Starcraft run this year, though that first two hours were quite entertaining. FF8 proved in the first round it was no fluke, and it proved in the second round it could stand up to a bit of adversity. It would be nice to see how FF8 held up in a 1v1 game contest, but sadly we'll likely never get the chance. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Much like Majora vs R/B/Y, I'd given up hope for a reversed result in tonight's R2 match after seeing just how badly the underdog had been pounded in R1. Now though, I'm extremely nervous about my bracket's pick of Ocarina \> FF8; let me count the ways: - sure FF4 crunched FF1, but its now pretty clear that 1 relies almost entirely on its series recognition and cute sprites. against an opponent with an ACTUAL fanbase it's much much harder to inflict major SFF/LPF damage, as G/S/C is showing us today. between's 9's very vocal fanbase and its strong showing last round, I could see 8 having almost as hard a time as Red is at beating down its younger brother - Mario 1, SMW, GE, Mario 64... every time pre-GameCube Nintendo has had a chance to stand on its own this round it has demolished our expectations, and I see no reason for Ocarina of Time to snap that trend. sure these other games are all strong, but this draw is just peachy in terms of allowing the biggest of the Zeldas to stand out from the competition, and that's a scary proposition- I think it's going to put up a big time number in this one by the time the smoke has cleared (especially since it should be able to rock this ASV) - the higher OoT goes, the more I like SC's chances. yes yes, I realize that the whole "dedicated fanbase" factor is overblown, but even so, SC pulled 28 and DII did 27 and WoW did 24; I honestly don't think 20% is out of StarCraft's range, and if Ocarina goes wild that might be all it takes - chuckle at Longshot Lopen all you want, but he has a point... there's a reason L-Block and Snake did so great in '07 and '08, and I do agree that being non-Zelda/FF/Mario options was a major part of why those bandwagons gained steam. and if that's a legit mindset for many voters, there could hardly be a more ideal rally proposition than getting to take down two Final Fantasy titles plus the most "overrated" Zelda of them all at the same time! - wowza does Ocarina ever dominate that match pic. the adult version of Link everyone loves, the triforce, logo looking big and bold, man. and Vivi is rocking his coolest look as well. and yikes, StarCraft sportin' the coolest unit RTS unit in the world, the Archon! while FF8 looks like... well, garbage, honestly. I'm sure that's an awesome cut scene, but sorry, its comes out way too small to translate to a match pic And finally... - there's no way StarCraft loses a close match Factoring in all those points, you can see why I'm so frightened that I have to pick against my bracket and say - The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 44.99% - StarCraft - 20.36% - Final Fantasy VIII - 20.35% - Final Fantasy IX - 14.30% \*hopes for a good one!\* ### Next Day Review Hm... well on the plus side we're already over 130k and this should end up as the 2nd or 3rd most popular match of the season so far, despite the double Final Fantasy overlap. On the down side, here's another missed opportunity on what ought to have been a great match! Really cool first three hours, looked to be setting up for FF8 to get a decent lead before SC came roaring back with the SNV Halo/SC-style, but then Europe had to go and ruin everything by being WAY too crazy about FF8. That was such a devastating stretch that the Blizzard faithful realized there would be no chance of a rally; instead Ocarina got a free pass to just keep rising all day. And yikes, did it ever! Even combining FF8 and 9, they still only managed to hold Ocarina to 59% of the vote- boy, I'd be shaking in my boots if I had one of those wacky FF7 brackets! Though of course none of this Finals talk matters unless FFX can make it there to help balance the load, and speaking of which... ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3487&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=42) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=42) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Final Fantasy X vs Metal Gear Solid 2 vs Kingdom Hearts vs Grand Theft Auto: Vice City 2009 _source: Final Fantasy X vs Metal Gear Solid 2 vs Kingdom Hearts vs Grand Theft Auto: Vice City 2009 (revid 65280)_ ## Results **Round Two** Tuesday, May 19th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Division 2001-2003 Semi Final - **Match \#:** 43 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, May 19th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy X - 34.73% Metal Gear Solid 2 - 25.23% Kingdom Hearts - 23.66% Grand Theft Auto: Vice City - 16.49% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** FF10 first place (4pts) - 33.72% FF10 second place (2pts) - 14.79% KH second place (4pts) - 21.63% KH first place (2pts) - 12.25% - **Advancing Prediction:** Final Fantasy X - 48.51% (18,577) Kingdom Hearts - 33.88% (12,975) This was a matchup of four *huge* PS2 titles, and it was very difficult pre-match to tell where all the SFF would lean. FFX \> KH was the consensus based on round 1 results, but SFF can be quite fickle. This match didn't end up fickle, but it started out that way. Kingdom Hearts, FFX and MGS2 all combined to knock out Vice City early on, and were all tied for a few minutes. Final Fantasy X would eventually pull away overnight, and the match was ultimately between Kingdom Hearts 2 and Metal Gear Solid 2 for second place. That mini-match however was over 15 minutes in -- Kingdom Hearts in the 0:10 - 0:15 update increased its lead from 13 to 108 votes, effectively giving us the final result right then and there. MGS2 and Vice City went on to respectable third and fourth place finishes. The story here was how good Kingdom Hearts looked in this match, and in turn how bad FFX looked. We all know FFX would eventually make the final, but there was some doubt of that following this match. This was not an impressive first place by any stretch, and one could easily argue FFX was leeched to holy hell by all three of the other games in this poll. Kingdom Hearts, as usual, looked like a beast. If Kingdom Hearts 3 would ever get announced and released, the entire series could reach elite levels. It's damn strong as-is. Speaking of Kingdom Hearts 3, who do I have to kill in order to get this game announced? The wait is unbearable. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Crazy showing from X last round, easily one of the most impressive of R1 in my opinion. KH1 did pretty well for itself also, but as other Crewmembers have touched on, FFX and KH have such a weird relationship that you never know how they'll affect one another. I could see anything happening here, from X pounding KH so badly that VC is in range (until the ASV kicks in) to KH holding X back so hard that MGS2... okay, strike that, couldn't ever see MGS2 winning outright. MGS2 over KH though, now there's an interesting proposition. Sure Sora has held up well against Squall, but I think things could be different when the two games themselves are in play- FFX was just such the RPG star of that generation that'd I have to imagine it hugely overshadows KH1 or 2 or FF12 or anything else. Also, despite the underwhelming percentage last round, I'm not entirely sold on MGS2 being the weakest of the series, and furthermore I've got a ton of respect for this fanbase in terms of staying resilient despite stronger competition. The base isn't big enough to score blowouts (as MGS1 showed us yesterday), but it's generally consistent enough to manage 25%+ against most opponents, and if FFX is able to cause enough havoc it might not even need that much tonight. On the other hand... gosh that was a great showing for KH2 in that match with RE4. I'm torn on this one; better let the match pic decide! Hmm, love the big bold title for MGS2, plus the "2" has been cut off on the right; might help with the franchise voting! And KH doesn't impress me- the series always seems to be at top strength when it draws the sort-of-anime look they've been doing from KH2 on, so I don't think Goofy and Donald is its best bet. Alright, guess I'll back the upset and take the MGS fanbase to pull out one of their classic close victories here (shouldn't be too hard, as Frog has already showed us that this franchise can be had in the final hour). One final note: I don't think VC gets entirely crunched in this one, as most seem to be expecting. Sure the series has disappointed, but it's been a consistent disappointment, with all 4 games grabbing between 22 and 28 percent of the vote. No chance Vice City matches that against good competition like this, but still, I'd be surprised if it imploded to under 14% or so. - Final Fantasy X - 36.61% - Metal Gear Solid 2 - 23.05% - Kingdom Hearts - 23.01% - Grand Theft Auto: Vice City - 17.34% Looks... risky, but I like it! ### Next Day Review Well what do you know- guess Sora and Squall are much better proxies than I gave them credit for! After that world-beating performance in R1 I hesitate to call this a straight up disappointment from FFX... seems more like it did about what we have expected, minus the SFFing of KH that we'd all been counting on. Yes sir, I guess that voters just don't automatically think "Square" where KH is involved for whatever reason; the LFF between FFs has been just brutal, yet today Kingdom Hearts acted as if it were an entirely independent entry. Maybe one (or both?) KHs are going to be making much, much deeper runs than we'd expected... As for Vice City, this was a good showing and one that further validates my claim that all 4 have been performing very consistently. MGS2, however, was once again rather underwhelming; guess I have no choice but to accept that I was wrong and it's the weak link of the series, unless 3 drops a real bomb on us. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3488&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=43) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=43) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Diablo II: Lord of Destruction vs Halo: Combat Evolved vs Super Smash Bros. Melee vs The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker 2009 _source: Diablo II: Lord of Destruction vs Halo: Combat Evolved vs Super Smash Bros. Melee vs The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker 2009 (revid 67882)_ ## Results **Round Two** Wednesday, May 20th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Division 2001-2003 Semi Final - **Match \#:** 44 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, May 20th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Smash Bros. Melee - 37.48% Diablo II: Lord of Destruction - 21.66% Zelda: The Wind Waker - 20.54% Halo: Combat Evolved - 20.44% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Melee first place (4pts) - 28.55% Melee second place (2pts) - 39.08% Diablo II second place (4pts) - 6.24% Diablo II first place (2pts) - 9.30% - **Advancing Prediction:** Super Smash Bros. Melee - 67.63% (25,900) Diablo II - 15.54% (5,951) Melee winning this match was a given, but this was the second match in a row where it seemed a bit off. This was an impressive enough first place and an easy win, but it failed to deliver that SFF killer punch to Wind Waker we all expected. As hard as it is to accept, Melee just isn't that killer instinct dominant game we all want it to be. Remember, 2004 didn't feature dominant performances either. Either Wind Waker isn't all that bad, or Melee isn't *that* good. Good, but not great. If by some miracle we ever saw Melee vs Brawl 1v1, Brawl could be considered a favorite going in. Compare Melee's eye test this contest to Brawl's. It isn't close. The true match here were the other three games, though it wasn't really a match. Diablo 2 won second place very easily, and silenced all the critics thinking the first round win was a fluke. Only 15.54% of people had Diablo 2 getting to the third round of this contest, mainly because Halo is the most overbracketed series we have. Once again, everyone had faith in Halo. And like always, Halo bombed. And this wasn't a simple choking; it scored last place against an SFFd Wind Waker, and it was clear Halo would get last place within a couple hours. Halo is famous for choking in contests, but this ranks up there with the all-time best. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction I'm expecting some fireworks from tonight's matchup! Sure it's going to be kind of pointless considering how weak all these options for 2nd place are (well I actually think Wind Waker has respectable strength, just not when Melee's hanging around), but I could still see this resulting in a few lead changes and comebacks. First things first: Melee's going to go to town on these chumps. Maybe that roster screenshot for a match pic is what's raising my confidence, but for whatever reason I have this hunch that SSB comes out of this one looking like a champ, despite the fact that modern Nintendo hasn't impressed when split between two options. Even if my hunch is way off though, it's still a lock for first, meaning the real question is who goes home with the silver. You could make a good case for Halo, it seems to me... sure KotOR and D2 must have some overlap, but its still mainly seen as an Xbox game and as HM correctly pointed out a fanbase split might be devastating given that console's low ownership numbers. Unfortunately there's also a number of things working against Halo: Melee was the more definitive multiplayer experience of the 128 bit generation (and as GE vs MK64 showed us, that could be crucial), DII's the sole RPG choice this time around, DII will once again be allowed to dominate overnight (considering Europe and Asia's low opinion of post-N64 Nintendo, and the Xbox in general), and there's not going to be any massive ASV comeback like last time, not with Day Vote titans like SSB and Zelda there to soak up the votes. With all those factors working against Halo I was all set to go against my bracket and back DII in this one. And then StarCraft happened. I realize what a tough sell a PC-only RTS must be on an RPG-crazy site like this, but even so SC was SO far back of its '04 strength and did so very little beyond those first three hours that I had no choice but to lose a good deal of respect for the Blizzard base. Sure, they're not going to allow Diablo to lose a close match, but now I have doubts about them being able to keep it tight enough for that rally potential to matter. Guess I've got to side with Halo, though I do so with zero confidence. Speaking of zero confidence, I also think it's a mistake to count Zelda out entirely! I mean, even Majora managed 22% despite having to deal with a 3 way Nintendo split- it just seems extremely difficult to keep a Zelda option below 20%, regardless of the competition. If Melee really kicks it into gear as so many other Mario titles have done lately that might be all it takes to advance. But, ehhh, I'll play it safe and stick with Halo. (...oh jeez, did I just use "safe" and "Halo" in the same sentence? all of a sudden I've got a huge sinking feeling regarding this pick!) - Super Smash Bros. Melee - 37.95% - Halo: Combat Evolved - 21.80% - Diablo II: Lord of Destruction - 20.87% - The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - 19.38% Ermm.... okay? ### Next Day Review Somehow as soon as I locked in my pick for Halo last night I knew I'd made a huge mistake, but it was one of those you don't realize until it's too late to update your Oracle. And whoops, was my late hunch ever correct! Getting punished the entire overnight, not getting a sniff of an ASV comeback, only managing 42% directly on Diablo, and losing cleanly to a massively SFFed Wind Waker, all in a matchup where you were the only Xbox option and only FPS choice... it doesn't get much more embarrassing than that. I guess Halo's saving grace is the "128-bit multiplayer SFF" that I mentioned in my preview, and there's probably some validity to that (the ASV sure made me think so), but still, someone remind me to pick against Master Chief 100% of the time in a couple months! Other points: nice to see Wind Waker sort of redeem itself by hanging at 20%, DII looks good but I'd have to imagine SC could have done almost as well in this situation, and gosh is Melee ever beastly. Wonder how well it holds up to Ocarina. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3489&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=44) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=44) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion vs Tales of Symphonia vs Metal Gear Solid 3 vs World of Warcraft 2009 _source: The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion vs Tales of Symphonia vs Metal Gear Solid 3 vs World of Warcraft 2009 (revid 65282)_ ## Results **Round Two** Thursday, May 21st, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Division 2004-2006 Semi Final - **Match \#:** 45 - **Match Date:** Thursday, May 21st, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Metal Gear Solid 3 - 33.52% World of Warcraft - 23.34% The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion - 22.29% Tales of Symphonia - 21.00% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** MGS3 first place (4pts) - 9.79% MGS3 second place (2pts) - 13.19% Oblivion second place (4pts) - 8.26% Oblivion first place (2pts) - 9.17% - **Advancing Prediction:** Metal Gear Solid 3 - 22.98% (8,800) Oblivion - 17.43% (6,675) This match wasn't nearly as close as the first round blockbuster Oblivion and Tales of Symphonia gave us, but it was equally important and fun for a little while. Metal Gear Solid 3 came out early and set the stage for its being a surprise contender in round 3. It would eventually fall short of one of the biggest possible upsets, but for this round it proved legitimate strength by pulling away early from three tough games. Which leads us to the true match. For a time, it looked like the second round ToS match would be every bit as good as round 1. It looked early on like WoW would get last place, but within a few minutes WoW came back and gave us a three-way deadlock for second. The match stayed this way for nearly two hours, where Tales of Symphonia expectedly (based on the round 1 trends) fell off the pace. But unlike round 1, there would be no miracle comeback this time around. Tales of Symphonia had a great round 1 match and *finally* justified a huge amount of its fan-dom, but it fell short in round 2 in the face of Obivion. Not too long after Tales of Symphonia fell off, World of Warcraft looked to follow suit. But after Oblivion built up a 100 vote lead, the match entered one of the most prolonged stalls ever. Oblivion's lead stayed between 100 and 300 for over six hours, but neither game was able to make any headway thanks to the various rallies going on. Then the DSV hit, and WoW was able to tie the match in all of 12 seconds. It looked like WoW would explode and win easily from here, but Oblivion hung tough for a little while before doing the whole pulling-away-while-being-stalled thing. This lasted until the ASV, where Oblivion was finally able to cement the match and score second place for good. We'd had several examples of rallying not mattering too much (namely with Persona 4), but this match can finally put that argument to rest. Unless you have something on a MASSIVE scale (L-Block), rallying is negligible and always has been. If WoW of all games can't rally in this of all formats, we can officially put the rallying nonsense to rest. You can rally more votes all you want, but the people you attract will pick the option they like regardless. The true story here was Oblivion. It placed in two matches despite no bracket support at all, proving it has legitimate strength and could cause real damage if we'd ever get a 1v1 contest again. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Regarding Snake Eater and the RPG Three, hmm, seems to me its more or less a repeat of the match we just saw. You're got one standout title and three pretty weak options below it, but it should still be a fairly fun poll since there's a chance they're all equally weak. And it could be EXTRA fun because once again ToS finds itself in a pretty swell position: only GameCube option, only Nintendo option, Oblivion and WoW share the PC fanbase, and stands out well against the more mature games. (Why in the heck can't anything Metroid ever pull down a cushy no-Nintendo path like this?) Buuuuut, I just can't buy it. I could see ToS challenging WoW if it bombs hard, but that's probably the best it could do. Oblivion vs WoW is a tougher choice, especially after seeing Diablo look so respectable, but I'm going to stick to my initial SC \>~ DII \>\> WoW (without massive rallying) stance and pick against Blizzard in this one. I just get the impression that TES will eat up any overlapping PC fanbase the two have in common, and it's got the Xbox base to help it beyond that, plus I just thought it looked more impressive between the two last round. That leaves us with MGS3 to discuss. I'm seeing some super-high preds for the game, which makes some sense considering how much it stands out from all the mid-carder RPG options, but again I'm going to pick against the crowd here and keep its percent a little lower. I mean, MGS1 had an even better LFF position (against basically two Nintendo options) and is an even stronger game, yet it failed to capitalize. Seems the same ought to happen to 3, especially since even though these are all RPGs they at least cover a pretty good variety of systems/platforms. So if Snake pulls in about the same 1/3 of the vote as he did against Zelda and Pokemon, we're looking at: - Metal Gear Solid 3 - 33.31% - The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion - 23.29% - World of Warcraft - 22.34% - Tales of Symphonia - 21.06% Note: due to leaving early for Terminator I was unable to see the match pic before making this guess. Looking at it now, I think I would lower Oblivion slightly (logo doesn't stand out well enough), raise MGS, lower ToS a bit (too zoomed out, though I guess it does have SWORDZ), and give WoW a slight boost (pink elf TJF is surely the strongest of all!). Let's see if that would have backfired on me... ### Next Day Review Words can't describe how disappointed I am in the MGS series once again failing to capitalize on almost ideal opponents. I guess it lost some late night and overnight votes thanks to WoW rallying and then got crunched in the day by Xbox voters being excited to push Oblivion back out in front, but still, this is what, 60% on a ToS that was dealing with 2 other more popular RPG choices? Really would have thought this game could maintain more of its R1 percentage than that. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3490&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=45) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=45) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Resident Evil 4 vs Kingdom Hearts II vs The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess vs Half-Life 2 2009 _source: Resident Evil 4 vs Kingdom Hearts II vs The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess vs Half-Life 2 2009 (revid 65283)_ ## Results **Round Two** Friday, May 22nd, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Division 2004-2006 Semi Final - **Match \#:** 46 - **Match Date:** Friday, May 22nd, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: Twilight Princess - 33.52% Resident Evil 4 - 23.34% Kingdom Hearts II - 22.29% Half-Life 2 - 21.00% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Zelda:TP first place (4pts) - 20.74% Zelda:TP second place (2pts) - 26.62% RE4 second place (4pts) - 19.49% RE4 first place (2pts) - 30.54% - **Advancing Prediction:** Twilight Princess - 47.36% (18,137) Resident Evil 4 - 50.03% (19,159) Resident Evil 4 and Kingdom Hearts 2 gave us a damn good match in round 1, and they followed it up with their best impression of Super Metroid vs Super Mario Kart. Yes this was a very close match, but it had the excitement of a doorknob given we saw the same exact match with the same exact trends in round 1. In round 1, Resident Evil 4 built up a 1250 vote lead overnight and held on for dear life all throughout Kingdom Hearts 2's day vote, squeaking by with a seemingly close win. I say "seemingly" because RE4 was never really threatened. Round 2 was much different in that RE4 only built up a 700 vote lead before the morning vote, 550 less than in round 1. Had Round 1 perfectly repeated itself, Kingdom Hearts 2 would have made a furious comeback and brought the match down to the wire. But round 1 did not perfectly repeat itself, mainly because of Zelda's presence. Resident Evil 4 surprisingly kept up its pace all the way to the ASV, building up a 2000 vote lead in the face of everyone calling on an RE4 collapse. And make no mistake -- RE4 *did* collapse here, to the tune of bleeding 1200 votes. It just did so about 6 hours later than expected. RE4 was very lucky Zelda was around to suck up the traditional Kingdom Hearts morning vote, because Kingdom Hearts 2 would have scored the upset had it been able to get going at the same time as round 1. This was the second match in a row in which RE4 was able to squeak by KH2, and RE4 wasn't close to finished its nail-biting matches. This match more or less showed Kingdom Hearts and Zelda share a ton of fans, and you could also definitely call RE4 a quasi-Nintendo game here. Some how, some way, it survived the Kingdom Hearts day vote twice. That's no easy feat, even if it did prove RE4 was not finals-worthy. We also saw here how Twilight Princess was not finals-worthy. If RE4, KH2 and Twilight Princess are all this close, all three could effectively be thrown out of the discussion. Twilight Princess was dangerously close to being in second place this match, and was saved by the ASV. Skipping ahead a bit, Brawl SFFd the living hell out of Mario Galaxy. It was a safe bet based on round 2 results it would beat Twilight Princess handily, but we're getting ahead of ourselves. If you're a finals contender, you don't stay in first place by 200 votes and rely on ASV pushes to score convincing wins, regardless of any weird fanbase splits. If Brawl and Twilight Princess switched places, there's no doubt Brawl would have crushed this poll within 10 minutes. As is, Twilight Princess was at the very least leeched very badly, which was a bad omen given future opponents. This was a pretty bad effort by TP, even considering KH2 and RE4 are both potentially top 15 or 20 around here. There was actually a time in this match where Twilight Princess only led Resident Evil 4 by 9 votes. The same RE4 that bled 1200 votes later. The winner here, even though it lost, was Kingdom Hearts 2. This whole series is no joke, and it taps into a ton of different fanbases all at once. If we could ever get 3 announced, we'd be looking at three different games from the KH series with top 10 potential. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Heck of a matchup tonight! Let's get the easy (?) stuff out of the way first so we can dig into the meat: TP should win comfortably and HL2 should finish 4th comfortably. Post-N64 Nintendo has been sketchy nearly every time out, its true, but as a mid-tier Zelda option in a poll with nothing else Zelda/Mario/Smash, I feel fine backing TP (though I don't expect any kind of blowout). HL2 I actually think will impress by holding on to more of its R1 performance than you might expect, as Gordon often does, but the other options are a step above and with no Samus/Ganon-style SFF to push one of them back down, I can't see it catching up to anything. And so it all comes down to KH2 vs RE4. Let's itemize this baby. Points in KHII's favor: - RE4 has hands in the GC, PS2, and Wii cookie jars. but there's an option here that out prioritizes it on both the GC and Wii (presumably) and another that out prioritizes it on the PS2 - RE4 appeals to voter who like mature, action-heavy FPS adventures, but there's another mature FPS option in this poll - KH2 already came within a few inches of knocking off RE4 once, and its older brother legitimized that performance by looking arguably even more impressive in going toe to toe with FFX - shooters have been bombing relative to expectations this entire season. nearly the only exception to that rule has been HL2, which... doesn't help Leon a bit! - during their R1 matchup, Resident Evil 5 was drawing in tons of RE fans by being the \#1 FAQ on the site (except for maybe Pokemon Platinum?). but now the hype has died off and it's currently sitting back in 10th place Golly, not looking for very good for RE fans! Let's see what 4 can counter with. Points in RE4's favor: - um... Gears of War chainsaw LFF? - Nintendo SFF probably doesn't bury it THAT bad, considering how well it held up to all those GC/Wii options in that Game of the Decade poll. then again, FFX held up even better, and we now know that KH1 is only a bit back of X, and KH2 is possibly even stronger than its- you know what, scratch this point Wowza, seems like we have a very clear choice here! I'm going to put my foot down and side with... Resident Evil 4. WHAT? I've decided to overlook overlap and x-stats and past results and take a different perspective on this one. Sure there are thousands of people who like Kingdom Hearts, but there are also a good number that support RE4- and they don't just like it, they love it. Seems to me KH is a series with a very high playrate that would have no trouble beating up on "meh" competition, but that voters would abandon when options they really love come along, and I'd argue there are three of those in tonight's poll. Also I'm expecting Europe to limit KH's damage overnight (they generally love both Valve and Square, but seem pretty apathetic about KH for whatever reason) and Zelda to limit KH's morning and ASV kicks. And if push comes to shove, I don't see any way RE fans allow it to lose a match that's still debatable in the final hour. That's why I'm betting against all of the stats and factors I love so much and pulling the trigger on - The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess - 29.97% - Resident Evil 4 - 24.73% - Kingdom Hearts II - 24.70% - Half-Life 2 - 20.61% Whooo! ### Next Day Review I'm so proud of RE4 right now. \*wipes tear from eye\* What a trooper, standing up to the two school bullies and showing that yes, it IS possible for a non-Nintendo non-Square game to show some strength on this site. As to how this could have happened despite all stats and prior results pointing against it, I'm again going to bring up the final point from my match preview: well-liked games with huge playrates are always going to be a threat to post big time numbers in the opening rounds, but when the rubber hits the road and the competition stiffens (and I would argue this was the stiffest 4pack so far this season), they're going to wilt in the face of the well-loved options around them. Also want to give a short note of congrats to TP for surviving both the dreaded RE overnight and the dreaded KH afternoon to pull out the hard fought victory- sure this game is far from the the FF7-killer some were hoping for during the peak of its '06 hype, but its still earned plenty of respect from myself with this showing. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3491&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=46) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=46) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs Grand Theft Auto IV vs Call of Duty 4 vs Super Mario Galaxy 2009 _source: Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs Grand Theft Auto IV vs Call of Duty 4 vs Super Mario Galaxy 2009 (revid 65284)_ ## Results **Round Two** Saturday, May 23rd, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Division 2007-2009 Semi Final - **Match \#:** 47 - **Match Date:** Saturday, May 23rd, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 31.45% Call of Duty 4 - 31.02% Super Mario Galaxy - 20.49% Grand Theft Auto IV - 17.11% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Brawl first place (4pts) - 35.94% Brawl second place (2pts) - 16.30% CoD 4 second place (4pts) - 32.45% CoD 4 first place (2pts) - 17.67% - **Advancing Prediction:** Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 52.24% (20,006) Call of Duty 4 - 50.12% (19,194) Remember the people like me that argued Call of Duty 4 was strong, and could sneak into second place in this match above an SFFd Brawl? Well, we were all stupid. Really, really stupid. Oh we called CoD4's strength well enough, but the SFF in this match went entirely the other way. Brawl didn't just beat down and SFF Galaxy here; this was arguably the most meaningful, embarrassing SFF beating we've ever seen in a contest. This got so bad that Galaxy lost its third place lead over Grand Theft Auto 4 within an hour and a half. This was just horrible. Pathetic. Terribad. Any synonym you can think of for "legendary meltdown". It was a horrible result, and it made Galaxy the biggest flop of the entire contest. This also proved Brawl as the Wii title, above Galaxy (obviously) and probably above Twilight Princess. Yes Twilight Princess is technically a Gamecube title, but hush. Twilight Princess was on a clear path for its chance at Brawl two rounds from here, but it had no chance based on round 2 results. TP was leeched, while Brawl was dominant. The most dominant game of the latter two divisions through two rounds. Easily. Brawl's impressive performance here can easily make you forget how well CoD4 did to finish in second place, but do remember how most people thought Brawl and Galaxy would both be strong enough to finish in some order of 1-2 here, regardless of splitting. After this match, the contenders for the fourth game in the final looked like such: Brawl, Final Fantasy X, Metal Gear Solid 4. That's it. RBY and Melee both had Ocarina in the way, so the list was trimmed down to three within two rounds. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Tonight is... well, its super weird. CoD's the clear favorite for first place, and you'd have to say "deservedly so" after the way it didn't have any trouble with SMG past the first few minutes last time around. But somehow I have absolutely zero faith in this game. The entire FPS genre has been awful here in 2009 (aside from shooters with Nintendo appeal, and even then RE4 and GE looked bad back in R1). CoD's closest proxy, Halo, has gone 3 for 3 in wilting under pressure... what makes C4 different? I guess you could say its helped out by having strong PC appeal, and I suppose you could even make a case for it being the "RE4 of the CoD series", and that today's result ought to be give Duty-backers more confidence. But... I'm not sold. Melee was monstrous a couple days back, and I don't think Brawl should be all that far behind it, especially not after that very impressive performance last round. And the Snake + Mario pick is fantastic- there's no doubting that Snake popping out of that box was the moment that Brawl hype reached its peak internet-wide. Yup, everything seems to be working in SSBB's favor... and yet I can't shake the feeling that there was something extremely fishy about that Galaxy/Pokemon match. With the way even G/S/C was able to resist SFF from both Zelda and a superior Pokemon game, you've got to let SMG off the hook for not beating down D/P harder, don't you? And if so, isn't there a chance that we could be vastly underestimating it here? I think so, and that's why I'm going to back... Call of Duty! I do so not out of any kind of respect for the game or that series, but rather because I'm worried that we may have pegged Galaxy way wrong. With the way everyone outside of America has abandoned the Wii its going to be very difficult for Brawl + Galaxy to combine for much over 50%, which means that as long as Mario doesn't crumble badly CoD has to remain in the driver's seat. On the other hand, there's a distinct possibility that GTA4 messes this all up by limiting C4's casual appeal. Yes the GTAs have bombed, but with how much Europe despises the Wii and isn't too sold on the 360 either, G4 should figure to have a very strong overnight vote that might be enough to keep it relevant. Yup, so I'm leaning toward a result looking a little something like THIS: - Call of Duty 4 - 30.45% - Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 30.38% - Super Mario Galaxy - 21.81% - Grand Theft Auto IV - 17.35% Sure would be wonderful to see Galaxy redeem itself by massively improving on that pred though, as all its younger brothers did this round. ### Next Day Review Got to say I disagree with the way everyone's reacting to today's result. Yes Galaxy is looking bad, but "flop of the Contest," come on now! Sure Brawl is beating it down with 72%, but we've always known that same-console Nintendo SFF can be brutal. Ocarina did exactly this same thing to the two N64 titles it overshadowed, and yet Mario 64 and Goldeneye both bounced back with impressive performances that have us talking them up as top 10/15 games once again. And as for R1, well, even R/B/Y was only able to push G/S/C down to 42%- Pokemon generations are apparently just impossible to SFF much (at all?), so again I don't think that's any reason to hate on SMG. I mean clearly its a couple steps below that SMW/Mario 64 tier, but I bet it'll bounce back and show itself to be a respectable mid-carder once we get to see it without Brawl or TP interfering. The only thing we can really take away from this result is that, just like every other FPS this season, CoD4 is a fraud (at least in terms of being able to compete with MGS4/FO3 next round like we were hoping). And also, the hated Wii was surprisingly able to earn 57% of the vote against two options that did a pretty fair job of covering the 360, PC, and PS3 fanbases- between that and TP's strong stand yesterday, looks like all of the gloom and doom regarding post-N64 Nintendo was a bit overblown. Have to imagine both of those heavy hitters will be fine through next round... but TP/Brawl/MGS4/RE4, yikes, now that will be something to talk about! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3492&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=47) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=47) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Metal Gear Solid 4 vs Portal vs Fallout 3 vs Halo 3 2009 _source: Metal Gear Solid 4 vs Portal vs Fallout 3 vs Halo 3 2009 (revid 88469)_ ## Results **Round Two** Sunday, May 24th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Division 2007-2009 Semi Final - **Match \#:** 48 - **Match Date:** Sunday, May 24th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Metal Gear Solid 4 - 34.57% Fallout 3 - 27.68% Halo 3 - 19.19% Portal - 18.78% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** MGS4 first place (4pts) - 37.37% MGS4 second place (2pts) - 17.44% Fallout 3 second place (4pts) - 22.45% Fallout 3 first place (2pts) - 10.73% - **Advancing Prediction:** Metal Gear Solid 4 - 54.81% (20,990) Fallout 3 - 33.18% (12,707) The Fallout 3 \> Halo 3 first round match was one of the most boring matches of the contest, and round 2 wasn't much better. MGS4 \> Fallout 3 was a complete lock, and you maybe make a case for Portal or Halo 3 swinging an upset because of round 1 producing some weird results from splitting. Or not. This match was over within a couple hours, though it was nice seeing Portal hang in there for a bit. If you haven't played Portal yet, you have no idea what you're missing. What a perfect gem of a game, and I love how a next-gen game can be 2-3 hours long and be better than 99% of the crap out there. Stunning how a game being fun is all that matters, trumping all this crap about 100 hour play times and multi-million dollar development costs. God bless you, Portal and Valve. Since this match was so short, another mini Stars and Turds! Star of the Round: -Super Smash Bros. Brawl Turd of the Round: -Super Mario Galaxy ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction I was excited about getting another chance to see what MSG4 was made of now that SSBB has made it seem to be such a world beater, but then I remembered that we already know 4's relation to Fallout and we already know F03 \>\> Halo 3 from last round. So yeah, everyone was right, there really shouldn't be all that much of interest about this match. ALTHOUGH when I said "remind me to pick against Master Chief this Fall!" a couple days ago I'd actually forgotten that there was still a Halo alive in the tourney- guess I get to start betting against this series even earlier than expected! Unfortunately it seems just about everyone has already beaten me to it, as I'm seeing Portal picks all across both the Crew and the Oracle. Ah well... it's got a fantastic match pic that really plays up its fad/meme/cult/joke appeal (great work Zen!), which ought to work wonders given how MGS4 and FO3 have such low playrates (compared to most other games that are still alive at this point), meaning there should be a good chunk of disaffected users looking to cast an "Other" vote. Aside from that battle for 3rd, hm... I guess I should mention that I'm lowballing the MGS series for the third time in a row, and feel pretty confident in it going three for three at drawing 1/3 of the votes in a poll. Yes this is a favorable matchup thanks to Fallout and Halo sharing the 360 while Halo and Portal share the FPS genre, but as we've been over many times the MGS series just isn't built for blowouts and so I'd be quite surprised if it surged toward 36% or anything like that. And uh... that's about all. - Metal Gear Solid 4 - 33.40% - Fallout 3 - 28.24% - Portal - 19.19% - Halo 3 - 19.17% Bring on Round Three! ### Next Day Review Well, today was unanimously expected to be a snoozefest, and for one of the few times this season we were... dead right! Darn it Halo- you're so awful these days that even your major flops are no longer exciting! (And I DO consider this one of the worse flops the series has experienced, BTW- being edged out by HL2 or 1 after seeing Master Chief '07 would be been disappointing enough, but the most hyped FPS of all time is going to lose cleanly to Portal and get straight up outperformed by Bioshock in the process... very sad.) Got to give props to MGS4 though for what is in my mind the first "wow" showing from the MGS series this season. I guess it was handed an easy setup since it was a pretty clear sore thumb, but so were MGS1 and 3, yet those games squandered the opportunity. Perhaps transience is on to something with this being the strongest of the 4 games... in any case, after a performance like this it should certainly be in the driver's seat when it comes down to TP/Brawl/RE4. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3493&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=48) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=48) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Tetris vs Mega Man 2 vs Super Mario Bros. vs The Legend of Zelda 2009 _source: Tetris vs Mega Man 2 vs Super Mario Bros. vs The Legend of Zelda 2009 (revid 88464)_ ## Results **Round Three** Monday, May 25th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Division 1972-1988 Final - **Match \#:** 49 - **Match Date:** Monday, May 25th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Mario Bros. - 36.88% The Legend of Zelda - 30.38% Tetris - 20.00% Mega Man 2 - 12.49% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Mario 1 first place (8pts) - 30.50% Mario 1 second place (4pts) - 29.40% Zelda 1 second place (8pts) - 29.44% Zelda 1 first place (4pts) - 23.75% - **Advancing Prediction:** Super Mario Bros. - 59.90% (22,939) The Legend of Zelda - 53.19% (20,370) This was the point in the contest where things got really really fun. We had some good matches to this point, yes, but most of the matches in the last three rounds ranged from good to forever memorable. The first divisional final ranked somewhere in the middle, mostly from how weird it was. But before getting into the obvious, this match was the ultimate final nail in Mega Man 2's coffin. Both Tetris and Mega Man 2 were in a no-lose SFF situation, and Tetris still won. Hopefully this lays to rest all the insane Mega Man \> Tetris stuff, in the event we ever get a 1v1 games contest. As for Mario vs Zelda, this was an extremely odd result, and it would only get even more strange in the next round. In round 2, Mario 1 defeated Zelda 1 by 9000 votes with Ninja Gaiden and Metroid present. You wouldn't think removing these two games and adding in Mega Man 2/Tetris would hurt Mario 1 a lot, but it did. This isn't to say Mario had a ton of trouble with Zelda 1 in this poll, because it had none -- Mario was never threatened here. It jumped out to the early lead much like the previous round, and dominated for awhile. But rather than go on to win by 9000 votes, Mario was vastly slowed down come the morning vote. Mario's lead was 2000 votes come school time. It took another 7 hours for the lead to peak at 2400 votes, and then Zelda spent the rest of the match shaving things down to 2000. The lead was never threatened per se, but this set up one of the best matches of any contest and proved Mario and his games split much worse in the face of Nintendo than Link and his games. You can argue Ninja Gaiden and Metroid can't do much of anything to Nintendo games, but Tetris and Mega Man 2 are a different story. And there's no doubt which game among Mario 1 and Zelda 1 these two hurt more. The funny thing here is had the match been 48 hours long, Zelda 1 would have won -- one round after losing by 9000 votes. Crazy. Even crazier is what would happen a week following this. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction For tonight I went with what I always realized was a pretty wacky upset, Zelda \> Tetris, and my reasoning was as follows: Zelda always tops Mario but it could be a close split and both will certainly hold each other back, MM and Mario always overlap which should weaken the game even more, Tetris will stand out as the only non-NES exclusive option, plus if there's any game that could gain L-Block like momentum and pick up anti-establishment votes it would probably be Tetris. Frankly I realized it was silly going in and probably only took it in the hopes of spicing up this incredibly vanilla division (MIX THE ERAS SB), and it looks even worse now that Tetris had such a hard time putting away MM2 last round. So I give up! On to the real question of this poll: Oh wait, Mario versus Zelda isn't a real question either, since it was spoiled last round (DIVIDE UP THE BRACKET BETTER SB). I wanted to agree with transience about Mario relying so much on its importance and iconic status that Tetris will hurt it on the one side while NES platformer LFF might take it down a notch on the other side, allowing Zelda to make a better match of this. But then I saw the match pic- ugh! I have no problem with these artsy/cutesy/high concept images that often start springing up in later rounds, but I really think they should only be used in tandem with a whole group of pics, to help balance the pic factor out. "Generic Enemy \#1" is a fine theme, but goombas are SO much more iconic and recognizable than these other options that Mario should see a pretty strong boost. Kind of like that bonus poll back in '07, where the "?" block was so iconic that it easily smashed our reigning Contest Champ. With Mario getting that thoroughly unnecessary help, I'm going to predict something along the lines of - Super Mario Bros. - 37.66% - The Legend of Zelda - 31.40% - Tetris - 19.32% - Mega Man 2 - 11.62% Okay, good, now don't completely collapse on me, Tetris! ### Next Day Review Wow, really nice showing from Zelda today. We must have been right about the Tetris "icon overlap" and MM platformer LFF, as this is a heck of a turnaround from R1- Zelda's actually come back to the point now where this might have been a real shootout given a more balanced match pic. Props to MM2 for holding up better than I expected, but some major anti-props are in order for Tetris. Gah, I was already fully aware of how dumb I was to put faith in you in my bracket, no need to rub salt in the wound and ruin my Oracle as well! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3494&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=49) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=49) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Super Mario Bros. 3 vs Sonic the Hedgehog vs Super Mario World vs Final Fantasy IV 2009 _source: Super Mario Bros. 3 vs Sonic the Hedgehog vs Super Mario World vs Final Fantasy IV 2009 (revid 65287)_ ## Results **Round Three** Tuesday, May 26th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Division 1989-1991 Final - **Match \#:** 50 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, May 26th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Mario Bros. 3 - 32.85% Final Fantasy IV - 26.52% Super Mario World - 25.53% Sonic the Hedgehog - 15.34% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Mario 3 first place (8pts) - 44.47% Mario 3 second place (4pts) - 15.38% Mario World second place (8pts) - 24.81% Mario World first place (4pts) - 13.45% - **Advancing Prediction:** Super Mario Bros. 3 - 59.85% (22,920) Super Mario World - 38.26% (14,652) Mario clearly SFFs Sonic. This is not up for debate. Also not up for debate is Final Fantasy 4's supposed chances to sneak into second place this match. To steal a line from hochi, anyone who thought Final Fantasy 4 could win here should be executed. That is final. But past this, what an unbelievable development this match was. The 2004 stats are mostly outdated and useless, but Super Mario World and Super Mario Brothers 3 shared a common opponent in Chrono Trigger late in that contest. Based on those results, Mario 3 would score 57% on Mario World. Unless you believe in CT \> Mario World SNES SFF, there was no big reason to think Mario World could reverse this trend. It didn't have a great contest in 2004, and it looked like complete crap in the first round of this contest. Then in one 24 hour period, conventional wisdom turned around and the newer tastes of GameFAQs began to show up. Everything we knew became a lie. Mario 3 struggled with Mario World in the first couple of minutes, and then continued struggling even as it built a lead up. Mario 3 built a lead of only 400 votes overnight, and it was continually stalled and cut the whole way up. Mario 3 was in clear trouble even as its lead peaked, for obvious reasons. Not only was Mario World giving Mario 3 fits, but it was giving Mario 3 fits with two other SNES/Genesis era games in the poll. There were two games to hold Mario World back here, and only the name "Mario" holding Mario 3 back, if that makes sense. And in the face of this, Mario World was able to peak Mario 3's lead at four hundred votes and begin a comeback attempt before we were even done the overnight vote. If Mario World could pull this off given the other games in the poll, Mario 3 was dead in the water in later rounds. The round following this was an impending Mario 1/Mario 3/Mario World/Zelda 1 match, which was essentially a flip of the current state of affairs -- 3 NES era games to hurt Mario 3 while Mario World is only hurt by its own name. Given the match going on while these revelations popped up, there was nothing at all holding Mario World from overtaking Mario 3 in later rounds. But before even that, Mario World had a very realistic chance of beating Mario 3 right here, right now, despite having more of a reason to get leeched than Mario 3 in this very poll. Mario World began shaving votes off the lead overnight, and it took holy hell and high water from Mario 3 to hang on. The lead was shaved down to 150 come the morning vote, where Mario 3 was able to make a recovery. Compared to the fits Mario World was giving Mario 3 to this point, Mario 3 won the morning vote and DSV convincingly. It stretched the lead from 150 to 600 before the ASV, where Mario World unleashed one final push. In less than two hours, Mario World cut the lead down to just below 400 votes. It stalled at this level all the way until the evening and second night votes, where Mario 3 made another recovery and went on to win by 700. But this was a Pyrrhic contest victory if there ever was one, because Mario 3 was clearly and obviously dead in the water from here. Not to sound like a broken record here, but Mario 3 barely escaped with its life with two games leeching its opponent. There was no reason to think Mario World couldn't take down Mario 3 with two games leeching the latter. Beyond the match itself being good, this was a match symbolizing a paradigm shift on GameFAQs. We've seen this site getting younger slowly over time for a few years, but it really jumps out at you when Mario World competes with Mario 3. It's one thing to see Symphony of the Night, Chrono Trigger, Mega Man or Sonic suffering a years-long weakening -- quite another to see the historic, beloved Mario 3 going through it. This is a game a ton of us grew up on, but it's clearly been knocked down a peg or two. If you look closely at the results of this contest, nearly all the older games seemed weaker than 2004 levels. And if we see another games contest five years from now, we'll see more evidence of a gradual youth movement. Sad but true. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Everyone seems really hyped for tonight; I'm even seeing people say this has "match of the season" potential. And I have to... agree! This is one of those extremely rare cases where you've got three games up top that could literally finish in any order- and where that's true NOT because they're all untested lower-midcarders (as we've seen a few times) but rather because two of them are extremely strong and the other is also pretty strong (probably) and in an ideal position. (Oh yeah, and I guess Sonic's hanging around as well. Let's just put that in last but expect that, like MM today, it's not going to utterly fall apart.) Great, now let's move on to The battle of the Marios! I've seen 3 and World and 64 debated back and forth so many times in stats over the years; great that we finally get to put 2/3rds of that debate to bed once and for all tonight! Now I realize how incredible SMW looked last round, but ehhh, the final percentages there made so little sense that I've got to chalk it up as some kind of weird fluke. We're already seen that in big time Nintendo clashes like this (see: Zelda 1/Mario 1) respect and "iconic" and nostalgia votes play a major role, so give me Mario 3 for the win tonight. I do agree it would make sense for the game to have lost a little of its steam since it 60/40'd World in the last Favorite Mario poll, so something more along the lines of a 56% win seems reasonable here. Now for the second coolest question... does Mario taking up 50% of the poll result in anti-voting, as apparently happened last round when Final Fantasy took up two spots? I think it might, but I doubt it will be enough! Old school Square just has such a small (but dedicated) fanbase that fracturing it whatsoever is devastating, whereas the voting pool for international superhits like Mario 1/3/W/64 is so huge that even splitting it three ways might not necessarily doom the series to poor performances. And that's a theory that I'm thinking we'll be able to test next round, since I'm going to go ahead and predict a R4 Mario 1/Zelda 1/Mario 3/Mario World clash of the titans! HOWEVER, I do think that FF will manage to keep this one close- there's just too much working in its favor for it not to, especially with a brand name that powerful urging it on. I'm thinking we'll see something along the lines of FF4 putting on a big time show overnight that has World scared for a while before coming apart at the seams once the sun rises, resulting in a score along the lines of: - Super Mario Bros. 3 - 34.13% - Super Mario World - 26.02% - Final Fantasy IV - 25.73% - Sonic the Hedgehog - 14.13% Yup. Okay M3, show us what you're made of! ### Next Day Review Haha, now here's a match that lived up to the hype! Okay, so I was way off in thinking that FF4 could compete for second, but instead we got an even MORE entertaining result - a Mario Smackdown that went right down to the final hours! Sure I mentioned in my preview how 3 had probably lost some steam in the last 5 years, and actually I wouldn't have been surprised by World putting up nearly identical numbers to its older brother in indirect matches, but I'd never have expected World could go blow for blow in a direct battle like this. At least not with 3 sporting that super-iconic, ultra-nostalgic Raccoon Mario yellow boxshot. Well, a hearty note of congrats to World, and the even better thing about this result is that it keeps things extremely interesting for next round as well. Does the presence of a second NES Mario swing the balance in SMW's favor? If the result between the two stays this tight, wouldn't Zelda's only chance be to beat them both (and after the way they destroyed FF, is that even possible)? Now we just need them to edge Zelda and then have the increasingly possible FF7 \> Mario 64 result take place and we'd have a chance to settle the Great Mario Debate once and for all! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3495&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=50) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=50) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past vs Super Metroid vs Final Fantasy VI vs The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening 2009 _source: The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past vs Super Metroid vs Final Fantasy VI vs The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening 2009 (revid 80608)_ ## Results **Round Three** Wednesday, May 27th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Division 1992-1994 Final - **Match \#:** 51 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, May 27th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: A Link to the Past - 36.22% Final Fantasy VI - 33.30% Super Metroid - 16.35% Zelda: Link's Awakening - 14.37% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Zelda:ALttP first place (8pts) - 41.19% Zelda:ALttP second place (4pts) - 14.68% FF6 second place (8pts) - 22.73% FF6 first place (4pts) - 11.07% - **Advancing Prediction:** Link to the Past - 55.87% (21,396) Final Fantasy VI - 33.80% (12,944) Very few matches in round 3 and beyond were bad, but this was one of them. The 1992-1994 division was a giant SNES era clusterfuck, culminating in.... a gigantic SNES era clusterfuck and one of the worst rematches ever. Learning that Link to the Past could SFF Link's Awakening more than Super Metroid wasn't the least bit interesting, surprising or relevant. The second place game here was also a lock to score second place once the round 1 results were in. Final Fantasy 6 looked horrible in the first two rounds, but this didn't stop it from an easy second place above two SFFd Nintendo games. In terms of a rematch, this was pretty much awful. FF6 was never in contention for first place, and it was hard to remember FF6 led LTTP for a couple hours in 2004. Even great stretches of contest matches have a couple bad apples, and this was one of them. LTTP \> FF6 was a lock for this match before the contest ever began, and a lock was what we got. This was all about LTTP setting up future success. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction In my bracket I went with the FF6 \> LttP upset here because I expected Super Met to make it into this poll (yesssss, the one thing I predicted correctly all year!) and thought that MMX (d'oh) would also hurt the Nintendo entrants, allowing FF to reverse its '04 defeat. Now that another Zelda game is here in place of MM, and in fact a Zelda game that's looked really good every time out and ought to resist SFF better since its from a unique platform, the FF6 win ought to be a no brainer, right? Well... it WOULD be, except that we just saw Team Mario put up 76% of the vote on Team Final Fantasy, and that in spite of Sonic hanging around to possibly weaken the 2D platformers! Even then, I'd normally counter with "but these Zelda games can't boast 90% playrates like those classic Marios- a fanbase split is going to be much more detrimental to this series". And while that's true, it doesn't explain away how LA was able to score 45% directly on an FF6 that wasn't suffering from any kind of FF or Square or RPG split last time around. Sorry, but that's just an embarrassing performance from something we'd been expecting to contend for a Top Ten position this year- clearly this game has lost a step or three in the past five years, and so just like Chrono Trigger I think it gets exposed in this one. ...which doesn't mean it can't keep it close! Europe ought to give the game a big boost during the dead hours, but again like CT, I just can't see how it survives once the sun rises against Day Vote studs like this. Other quickies: LA probably holds on better than most are expecting (Yoshi's Island this is not!) and Super Metroid likewise probably doesn't completely fall apart versus its R2 percentage. Which ought to give us something like: - The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 35.55% - Final Fantasy III (VI) - 35.48% - Super Metroid - 14.74% - The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening - 14.23% Feeling pretty good about that! ### Next Day Review And the Nintendo domination train rolls on! Kind of sad that the Marios have spoiled us so badly that we weren't even surprised by LttP improving by 1.5% on FF6... despite the presence of Super Metroid and another Zelda game, but I guess that's just how far Old Square has fallen. Other than that, uhh, not much to say about this result really. Super Met did a little better than I expected and LA got SFFed a touch worse that I would have thought, but it wasn't all that crazy in either direction. And as for what it means to next round, hmm... I guess here's hoping that Mario is able to advance tonight, since the M64 vs LttP battle will be about as close to pure as is possible in this format, plus we'd be able to compare CT to FF6 based on how the Old Square Bros hold up against FF7. Speaking of which... ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3496&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=51) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=51) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Final Fantasy VII vs GoldenEye 007 vs Super Mario 64 vs Chrono Trigger 2009 _source: Final Fantasy VII vs GoldenEye 007 vs Super Mario 64 vs Chrono Trigger 2009 (revid 81115)_ ## Results **Round Three** Thursday, May 28th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Division 1995-1997 Final - **Match \#:** 52 - **Match Date:** Thursday, May 28th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy VII - 35.42% Super Mario 64 - 26.46% Chrono Trigger - 22.33% GoldenEye 007 - 16.06% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** FF7 first place (8pts) - 67.45% FF7 second place (4pts) - 9.74% Mario 64 second place (8pts) - 28.20% Mario 64 first place (4pts) - 6.45% - **Advancing Prediction:** Final Fantasy VII - 77.19% (29,561) Super Mario 64 - 34.65% (13,270) This match was more or less a continuation of the Mario 64/CT round 2 match, but with different games stealing votes. Chrono Trigger needed a complete miracle to pull this off, in the form of not getting hammered by Final Fantasy 7 while Goldeneye leeched Mario 64 half to death -- it also needed weird SFF from Yoshi's Island's votes, to the tune of CT getting like 80% of the votes from SNES SFF in round 2 while Mario 64 got next to nothing.... from a fellow Mario game. Yeah. The funny thing here is Chrono Trigger almost did manage to pull this thing off. Mario 64 jumped out to a 140 vote lead in 25 minutes, but erased the entire thing 20 minutes later. It then built up a 600 vote lead overnight, with Mario 64 doing little stall-wise. For six hours, everything Chrono Trigger needed fell right into place. It wasn't getting 40% on FF7 like it did in 2004, but it was only a couple of percentage points behind in spite of Final Fantasy 7 dominating this match. FF7 ended up with 41% in a poll with two top ten (and possibly top five) games and a game in the 15-20 range in Goldeneye. All contest long, FF7 and Ocarina were a gigantic cut above everyone else, to the point of laughable results. If we ever get another games contest, I think most people would support a Tournament of Champions style where FF7 and Ocarina are removed from the main bracket and other games are given an opportunity to be paper champions. Chrono Trigger was also enjoying a clear case of Goldeneye leeching Mario 64 a lot, as evidenced by Mario being totally unable to stall CT on its way to building a 600 vote lead. But just like round 2, everything fell apart when the morning vote showed up. The 600 vote lead became 100 in just a couple of hours, and it took one hell of an effort from Chrono Trigger during the DSV (as well as a lot of N64 leeching) to prevent Mario 64 from opening a can all over the poll. Chrono hung tough for a damn long time, even using the second half of the DSV to build its lead back to 300 votes. Right about here is where CT fans let hope turn into expectation, and right about here is where CT predictably fell apart. Chrono Trigger's ASV failures are well documented, and this match was no different. That 300 vote lead it worked so hard to get turned into 0 in all of 30 minutes, and we all know what happened from here. Mario dominated the ASV, then hung on tight in the evening to secure a 1337 vote win. Nice final number. This wasn't the horribly embarrassing ASV collapse that led to a 3200 vote loss in the previous round, but it was an ASV collapse nonetheless. Everything Chrono Trigger needed to see line up happened, and it still was not enough to win. It held up on an FF7 that hadn't lost a beat since 2004, it saw Goldeneye put a huge log on Mario's path -- enough to make a nearly 2000 vote difference from the last match -- and yet it still predictably and sadly fell apart once kids came home from school. For whatever reason, Chrono Trigger has turned the ASV collapse into an art form. Can you imagine how a 1v1 match between Magus and Master Chief would go? This match set up a very interesting FF7/LTTP/Mario 64 trio. As good as LTTP was to this point in winning three matches, it seemed just a tad bit off compared to how well Mario was doing this contest. And because of two game contests featuring generational gaps, we'd never seen a match between 2D Zelda versus 3D Mario with both games nearly even in strength. FF7 was the obvious first place there, but LTTP vs Mario 64 was shaping up to be a very good match. This was especially true given the insane Mario 3/Mario World/Zelda 1 match that would go down one day prior. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Very excited for this one! After GE completely redeemed itself in R2 it sure looked like tonight was going to be dullsville; Goldeneye could very well give Mario a run for its money, but they'd be duking it out in a distance third. Boy did the following day ever change that outlook! I think Mario 64 \> CT is still the biggest shocker of the season in my mind, only because there was ANOTHER MARIO in the room. (Seriously, that shouldn't even have been close to possible!) But since we now know that these days Mario can punch Crono in the mouth even with a major disadvantage, a Mario advancement ought to be a straight up lock considering how there's going to be another Square RPG hanging around tonight. Right? Not so fast, my Lee Corso! I think GE is being quite unfairly underestimated here. The game's got nostalgia through the roof, a very dedicated fanbase, and it stands out like crazy here both as the only multiplayer option (something that was HUGE in determining the N64 totem pole- just ask MK64!) and in that match pic. People are being way too quick to assume that M64 beats it into paste- GE's sales were just as good as those of the console's flagship title here in America, and I'd argue there's a chance its overall playrate on this site could likewise be just as high, considering how EVERYONE got in on some GE multi action back in the day, even if you didn't have your own N64. We've already seen it hold up better directly against Ocarina, and just being "freaking MARIO" doesn't necessarily make you the alpha dog of any system post-NES; if you don't believe me ask Galaxy! Taking all this into account, I even picked FF7 \> GE for this match in my initial gut bracket. And now I get to proudly say ...no, sorry, got to tuck my tail between my legs and back down on that one. GE's got plenty going in its favor, but I just can't justify that upset in light of how every single FPS has cracked once serious pressure was applied so far this season (well except RE4, but let's see how it holds up in a few days) combined with how top tier Mario has got to be the year's \#1 success story. I still say GE holds up very well, but yeah, I'm its biggest B8 fan and even I would be stunned if it were ever in serious contention to advance today beyond the first 15 minutes. Does that mean GE will put up such a fight that CT is handed the free win over both N64 classics? Again, sorry, but I can't get behind that upset. The R2 stunner between these two was a huge wakeup call for Old School Square, but unfortunately it seems these RPGs just keep reaching out to slam the snooze button- FF4's showing was flat out pathetic, FF6 didn't improve on it nearly enough, and I refuse to bet against trends this crystal clear. I guess my only "daring" pick for tonight is a low low percentage from FF7. The early voters love all three other options so its sure to get a slow start, from there I don't think it dominates Europe all that badly overnight (GE was very popular over there), and as we've seen several times now this game doesn't have the ASV kick it once packed; have to imagine Mario looks best during that period. Plus as we've already covered I don't think N64 LFF will be anything close to devastating for Mario and GE, since their playrates aren't probably all THAT far back from those of Mario 3/SWM. Long story short, - Final Fantasy VII - 34.22% - Super Mario 64 - 24.13% - Chrono Trigger - 23.90% - GoldenEye 007 - 17.75% \*but crosses fingers for an even better showing from GE!\* ### Next Day Review Wow, alright, so I jumped the gun a little bit. Clearly I was wrong and FF7 is still very much in contention for the \#1 position on this site; actually this performance is so impressive you could even make a good case for it having earned back its favorite status! Let's check the numbers. Hm... looking to finish with about 65.5% on CT directly, up from the 58 it managed five years ago. That's nice, but not exactly unexpected- between revenge votes and bandwagon votes and being the only Nintendo option and Finals in generally being screwy, CT had all kinds of reasons to overperform in that Championship match. What really wows me is that FF7 is going to end up with over 53% versus the N64's \#2 and \#3 options combined (plus over 65% on Mario alone)... and that despite (presumably) losing a decent number of votes to the other Square RPG in the poll. Good gracious! In other news, I'm a little surprised that Mario had so much more trouble putting CT away this round compared to last, but I'm just going to go ahead and chalk that up to GE's incredible SFF-resisting power. Look out MGS, GE will be gunnin' for ya in BGE 2011! Oh yeah and more good news: this was an incredibly popular poll, looks like it will finish with the 2nd biggest total so far this year... but I think tonight's will shoot even higher! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3497&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=52) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=52) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Metal Gear Solid vs Pokémon Red/Blue/Yellow vs The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs Final Fantasy VIII 2009 _source: Metal Gear Solid vs Pokémon Red/Blue/Yellow vs The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs Final Fantasy VIII 2009 (revid 65290)_ ## Results **Round Three** Friday, May 29th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Division 1998-2000 Final - **Match \#:** 53 - **Match Date:** Friday, May 29th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 38.16% Metal Gear Solid - 21.28% Final Fantasy VIII - 20.78% Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow - 20.05% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Zelda:OoT first place (8pts) - 48.16% Zelda:OoT second place (4pts) - 22.81% Pokemon RBY second place (8pts) - 13.77% Pokemon RBY first place (4pts) - 11.05% - **Advancing Prediction:** Ocarina of Time - 70.97% (27,179) Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow - 24.82% (9,505) Metal Gear Solid had an "Upset Me!" sign painted on it all contest, and it finally happened in the divisional round. GSC gave it fits in round one, RBY only failed to beat it because of GSC's presence in round two, and RBY was finally able to break through in round 3. It got a huge assist from Final Fantasy 8, but you take wins however you can in this format. It's obviously impressive how RBY managed to fend off the standard Nintendo SFF crushing Zelda typically lays down, but Final Fantasy 8 was obviosuly leeching Metal Gear Solid along the way. It's impossible to assume otherwise, given the 2004 FF7 \> MGS result. Though the final margin was 2200 votes, the match really wasn't that close. One would think MGS could do well overnight at least, but Pokemon came out on fire. It built up a lead of nearly 400 overnight, and it took MGS until 5 a.m. to tie it up. By then, the match was clearly over. Even with Ocarina in the poll, Pokemon's awesome day vote paired with MGS's horrible day vote and FF8's leeching made the final result quite clear; ergo, a 2200 vote win for Pokemon. This result didn't mean MGS was a weak game per se. It just meant Pokemon RBY was very, very strong and that we're continuing to see a very clear overlap between MGS and Final Fantasy. If ever see a 1v1 contest and RBY were given good bracket placement, it has the potential to absolutely crush some already very high expectations. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction So we're heading out of one massively hyped poll that ended up being quite entertaining, and heading right into... hopefully the exact same thing! Actually this one could be even better, since we have two very cool storylines to keep track of, namely "Can Ocarina once again outperform FF7?" and "Who the heck takes second out of that train wreck below OoT?" Let's start with the latter. I really like Pokemon's chances in this one. After seeing how close it came to matching MGS last round despite pretty much the worst circumstances imaginable, I think you'd have to be out of your head to argue that R/B/Y isn't naturally the strongest of these choices (at least within the 4way format). Yes, common sense dictates that having the strongest Nintendo-based entrant in history on the other side of the poll would be enough to give the PSX choices an edge, but since when has Pokemon and/or Pikachu ever cared one wit about common sense? I've got to imagine Pika makes one or both of these mature titles more than a little bit nervous once his ASV starts to kick in. Now I'm sure everyone's sick to death of hearing me say how disappointing MGS1's "mere" 33% was last time around given the competition, so I'll skip that speech just quickly say that, surprisingly, I like MGS to top FF8 tonight. That's by no means intended as a slap in the face for 8- it wowed me in R1 and made the best of a bad situation last time around, and actually I wouldn't hesitate to pick FF8 \> MGS if this were a 1v1 situation. But instead its a 4way, the format where MGS and Snake have always excelled while FF has oftentimes dropped the ball- plus its an EXTREME 4way situation in that the Nintendo options are a lock to be eating up 55-60% of the incoming votes, turning this into a Race For 20. When it comes to managing just 1/5th of the votes in a poll on any subject, I want that super dedicated MGS fanbase to have my back every time! Plus you just know the fans will never allow this series to lose a close match; a very nice added bonus in a poll this hyped. Yup, so OoT \>\>\> MGS \> (by a sliver!) FF8 \> (by another sliver!) \> Pokemon, final answer. - The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 39.38% - Metal Gear Solid - 20.35% - Final Fantasy VIII - 20.32% - Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow - 19.95% Come onnnnn fatal threeway, let's spice this Contest up! ### Next Day Review Whoa there Pokemon! The fast start wasn't much of a shocker- I don't think anyone expected FF8 to be in its range during the early vote, and even with MGS being okay there you had to like RBY's chances. But what really blew me away was that ASV- looking THAT impressive, despite the strongest Nintendo entrant ever looking over your shoulder the entire time? I think it's safe to say that Pokemon has replaced Halo as the new King of the ASV! (Well, co-kings along with Kingdom Hearts, perhaps.) Some will say that Ocarina disappointed here since it failed to hit 40, but to me this was entirely Pokemon impressing... I mean I said "Nintendo with 55-60%" yesterday and thought I was being generous, and then the two went out and combined for 61.33! HOWEVER, I do have to swallow my pride and admit that yes, FF7 did have the stronger showing between the two games this round. On the other hand as far as FF is concerned, yikes did FF8 ever get hammered despite having no excuses! Let's see how much better FFX can look in this next one. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3498&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=53) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=53) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Final Fantasy X vs Kingdom Hearts vs Super Smash Bros. Melee vs Diablo II: Lord of Destruction 2009 _source: Final Fantasy X vs Kingdom Hearts vs Super Smash Bros. Melee vs Diablo II: Lord of Destruction 2009 (revid 65291)_ ## Results **Round Three** Saturday, May 30th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Division 2001-2003 Final - **Match \#:** 54 - **Match Date:** Saturday, May 30th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Smash Bros. Melee - 32.36% Final Fantasy X - 26.05% Kingdom Hearts - 22.04% Diablo II: Lord of Destruction - 19.83% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Melee first place (8pts) - 19.69% Melee second place (4pts) - 21.10% FF10 second place (8pts) - 10.56% FF10 first place (4pts) - 16.52% - **Advancing Prediction:** Super Smash Bros. Melee - 40.79% (15,621) Final Fantasy X - 27.08% (10,371) If Melee were the first option in the poll, we would have had a near perfect staircase, thus the most boring 4-way match possible. But at the very least, this was fun for a few minutes... if you care about useless battles for third place. Diablo 2 fought with Kingdom Hearts for a bit, but Kingdom Hearts rebounded. Yay. From there, Kingdom Hearts was unable to make a push to threaten for second place because of the PS2 split with FFX. It got close to FFX in round 2 because of the PS2 split going four ways, but this was only two. This split also allowed Melee to dominate for first place, giving us a round three staircase. Final Fantasy X would eventually get revenge once Ocarina entered the mix, which made up for everyone sitting through this horribly boring match. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction X is certainly going to need to show us something here if it wants anyone's support against that brutal Ocarina/Melee/RBY Triangle of Death. Good heavens, can you imagine the kind of world-beating tear FFX is going to go on overnight against that pack? But then, will it get destroyed just as bad in the other direction once the ASV rolls in? Hm... Well since we have Melee both rounds, we can just use KH as a proxy for its co-King of the afternoon- should be a pretty good indication of how X will fare next time around. If it can end up reasonably close to Melee today, you've got to like its chances to reverse the trend when 1 Square is shifted out for 2 Nintendos. But how close is "reasonably close"? I... don't know! Of course the same could be said of Melee- the sky's the limit here, and it's going to need to REALLY sky if it wants anyone's support for next round, considering some people aren't even all that confident about Melee v R/B/Y straight up anymore. I can't imagine SSBM having any trouble looking great here honestly... the series hasn't given us any sign of weakness all season, and this would be a really odd place to start. As for the lower two games, my guess is that KH1 falls well back of its amazing R2 performance and allows X to widen the gap between the two significantly. This is in keeping with my "everyone's played them but nobody LOVES them" theory I used to explain KH2 dropping the ball when better competition arrived last week. In fact I think KH1's going to look weak enough here that KH1 vs KH2 will once again be up for discussion. And as for Diablo, ehh, I think that comes way down from last round as well. "Dedicated fanbase" hasn't worked out so well for SC or WoW or pretty much anything else this year, so even though DII sure seems to be the strongest of that group I'm still expecting it to get last place factor'd into a pretty poor showing, especially since Melee (and to a lesser extent KH) are going to DESTROY this day vote. That should give us a result somewhere in the range of - Super Smash Bros. Melee - 33.00% - Final Fantasy X - 26.00% - Kingdom Hearts - 20.50% - Diablo II: Lord of Destruction - 19.50% Seems... not so great, but oh well! ### Next Day Review Hmmm, really not sure what to make of that performance by Melee. I mean, the final percentage was pretty respectable, and it didn't have any real trouble distancing itself from FFX by the time it was all over. But YIKES did X ever take it apart overnight! The DSV was solid, but then bam, it fell right off a cliff again when KH started owning the ASV. And since FFX is going to do more of the same next round, and with Pokemon being right there to take the ASV... I don't know, this performance just makes it hard to say with any certainty that Melee's going to hold up better than RBY already has when OoT rolls around. I'm having a difficult time finding a way SSBM finishes anywhere but 4th place actually, something I never thought I'd be saying! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3499&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=54) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=54) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Metal Gear Solid 3 vs The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion vs The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess vs Resident Evil 4 2009 _source: Metal Gear Solid 3 vs The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion vs The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess vs Resident Evil 4 2009 (revid 65292)_ ## Results **Round Three** Sunday, May 31st, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Division 2004-2006 Final - **Match \#:** 55 - **Match Date:** Sunday, May 31st, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: Twilight Princess - 29.64% Resident Evil 4 - 27.31% Metal Gear Solid 3 - 24.42% The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion - 18.68% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Zelda:TP first place (8pts) - 11.37% Zelda:TP second place (4pts) - 14.44% RE4 second place (8pts) - 17.68% RE4 first place (4pts) - 10.73% - **Advancing Prediction:** Twilight Princess - 25.81% (9,884) Resident Evil 4 - 28.41% (10,880) After Resident Evil 4 struggled and outlasted Kingdom Hearts 2 twice, this was supposed to be an easy match even with how close it got to Twilight Princess the previous round. Twilight Princess was a lock for first, RE4 a lock for second, and MGS3/Oblivion while strong weren't supposed to get close. But a funny thing happened on the way to RE4's victory parade. Metal Gear Solid 3 turned out to be a total beast of a game, and it would come damn close to pulling off the upset here. First and foremost, Twilight Princess dominated this poll compared to its round 2 efforts. Neither RE4 nor MGS3 took a lead on it like RE4 did the previous round, which gives some credibility to the Kingdom Hearts overlapping with Zelda theory. Now as for Resident Evil 4, it was clear MGS3 was going to give it trouble within the first five minutes. RE4 had bracket votes and only had a lead of 20 early, and sure enough it only took 45 minutes for MGS3 to begin building a lead. This was more or less the final blow to any hopes of RE4 making the final, but it had much more pressing matters at the moment. It was a painstaking process, but MGS3 overnight built up a 150 vote lead. RE4 cut it in half rather quickly, but MGS3 was able to recover and then hammer out some solid updates. Before long, the match seemed over. The lead reached 650 votes by morning, which was a death sentence to RE4 given how bad Resident Evil's day vote normally is. Metal Gear Solid's day vote isn't any better, but given how RE4 is a quasi-Nintendo title and a quasi-PS2 title with a strong Nintendo/PS2 presence in the poll, it had appeared RE4's luck had finally run out. However, every contest has one entry whose every match is cardiac, and that entrant for this contest was Resident Evil 4. After somehow stalling MGS3's advance during the morning vote, it began shaving away at the lead during the DSV. And when I say shaving, I mean literally. This was one of the slowest freaking comeback attempts we've ever had to watch. RE4 began stalling a 650 vote lead at around 8:30 in the morning. Come the ASV, the lead was 200, but MGS3 came out and won the early parts of the ASV and pushed it back to 250. But yet *again* when the match seemed over, RE4 pushed back and started shaving some more. RE4 "won" the ASV, but it took three hours to take the lead starting from down 250 votes. This wasn't earth-shattering by any means, but a lead is a lead and RE4 took it around 6. From here, RE4 began its long, looooooooooong effort to sllllllooooooowwwwwwlllllllllyyyyyy build up a lead of its own, which was actually really bad news given MGS's history of 11th hour cheating. This time however there would be no "random" MGS spikes near the end to save the day. RE4's match to the win remained constant all the way until the end of the match, giving it its third straight win by less than 1000 votes. This wasn't good for those of us that had it in the final, but it was good if you liked close matches. For the third straight round, RE4 pulled a day vote rabbit out of its ass to win a match it had no business winning. This could have created a bandwagon effort, but this was impossible given the competition next round. A Zelda, Brawl and MGS4? Not even RE4 could pull that one off, but it ended up having a damn interesting run. Not that this match itself was entertaining (taking 13 hours to swing 1000 votes rarely is), but watching RE4's antics was quite the treat, even if it was destined to end next round. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction I've got to agree with the Crew in saying that this one should be rather dull- probably the last less than exciting matchup we'll see this season. Yes RE4 impressed us last round, but I get the feeling that there may have been a slight bit of overlap between TP and KH that could have been helping it out, whereas this time if any two games hold each other back I'd think it would be the mature 3PSes in RE4 and MGS3. So Zelda ought to be able to extend its win a little bit and shoot for 30, while I'd imagine MGS takes a slight step back the the usual percentage the series pulls and is never in contention to advance. If I had to pick a "surprise" result, I'd go with a slight overperformance from Oblivion. The game has impressed despite a rough path where it had to split the RPG vote with ToS twice and WoW once- now that it has free reign on the whole genre as well as all the Xbox and PC vote, pushing for 20 here doesnt't seem out of the question. Possibly it could even contend with MGS3? ...nay, let's not get too crazy! Not too much else to say, so final answer: - The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess - 30.41% - Resident Evil 4 - 27.40% - Metal Gear Solid 3 - 22.32% - The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion - 19.87% Seems... okay, I think. ### Next Day Review Holy smokes MGS3! (As of when I'm writing this, RE4's up about 300 with about 30 minutes left to play.) Golly, I thought if today was going to be interesting at all it would have to be because RE4 made a late run at TP; instead I must have been dead on about it sharing fans with Kingdom Hearts, because boy does Zelda ever look like a worldbeater here. The showing by RE really baffles me though... I mean yes I expected MGS3 to hold it back a little as another mature PS2 action option, but on the plus side it got to jettison a true shooter in HL2- don't get how that makes it fall back to its R1 strength. I guess the easy answer is that it becomes tougher and tougher to knock out MGS games as more quality alternatives are added to the mix, and Oblivion certainly has some legit strength (yess, matching by 20% pred!), so these 4 fit the bill. Just weird that RE4 had a whale of a time pulling in front of 3, considering how 1 barely even put up a fight in going down to the two Nintendo options. Guess I was way off in my original 1 \> 2 \> 3 prediction for this series! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3500&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=55) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=55) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs Call of Duty 4 vs Metal Gear Solid 4 vs Fallout 3 2009 _source: Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs Call of Duty 4 vs Metal Gear Solid 4 vs Fallout 3 2009 (revid 88463)_ ## Results **Round Three** Monday, June 1st, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Division 2007-2009 Final - **Match \#:** 56 - **Match Date:** Monday, June 1st, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 33.45% Metal Gear Solid 4 - 28.21% Call of Duty 4 - 20.20% Fallout 3 - 18.38% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Brawl first place (8pts) - 23.55% Brawl second place (4pts) - 10.13% MGS4 second place (8pts) - 18.74% MGS4 first place (4pts) - 12.06% - **Advancing Prediction:** Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 33.68% (12,898) Metal Gear Solid 4 - 30.80% (11,795) For the third straight round, the final match of the round was a staircase blowout that barely needs mentioning. What makes this round different from the previous two however was this poll: [](http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3365) And this poll: [](http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3364) And THIS poll: [](http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3363) In GOTY, MGS4 gave Brawl fits for three days straight. In the contest that mattered, Brawl absolutely curbstomped MGS4 and ended the match within 5 seconds. If there was any doubt as to Brawl's legitimacy, it ended during this match. Turning a series of 50-50 polls into 12000 vote blowouts is no joke, which made the next round all the more funny. That's about all there is to note in this poll, since Fallout 3 and Call of Duty 4 were never going to be players in it. Thanks to a round ending on another boring match, I once again get to enjoy a short writeup with Stars and Turds! **Star of the Round:** -Super Smash Bros. Brawl, for the second round in a row. **Turd of the Round:** -The entire FFX/KH/SSBM/D2 match. In a round full of pretty good matches, this was just horrible to watch. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction I made a major mistake yesterday in calling TP/RE/MGS the "last dull poll of the season." First of all because it ended up not being dull in the least, and secondly because I forgot about THIS match! Now I realize some people will try to make a case for MGS here, because 3 looked really good, 3 seemed to confirm that these games do better as you add more options, and 4 has a chance to be the strongest MGS of all. But I'm not buying it. We've already seen F03 come down off its recency-boosted GotY high- I think MGS4 was riding some of that same recency itself, and that if you held the 1v1 final again today Brawl would extend its win. The main reason I'm picking Brawl for an easy win though is expressed quite succinctly in this image: (see it above) Three mature, dark, grimy, grey-palleted PS3/360/PC action shooters (well they're different genres, but you shoot in all of them!) against... one brightly colored Nintendo fighter that gets an entire genre and platform and color scheme to itself? That's a recipe for MGS4 disaster if I've ever seen one! No matter how far down MGS gets pushed though Fallout is sure to fall even farther, so nothing exciting there. If this poll has any intrigue it will be in FO3 and CoD4's battle for 3rd- give me Fallout there just based on RPGs consistently outperforming FPSes this season. In reality though all those two will be doing is holding each other back by gobbling each others 360 and PC bases while Brawl and MGS rise to heaven on their System Savior status. If I'm right about all this (and let's face it, I always am!), this result should end up right around - Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 33.26% - Metal Gear Solid 4 - 27.81% - Fallout 3 - 19.79% - Call of Duty 4 - 19.13% Seems *awesome*! ### Next Day Review What a pure "wow" performance by Brawl. I mean obviously the game was in a great position due to all the factors I got into last time, but two of our best predictors (transience and Leon) also saw all those factors coming in yet still messed up the Brawl/MGS4 gap by nearly 10%- now that's the mark of an impressive performance! SSBB pulled a great ASV, but you really can't go too wild about that considering how MGS is traditionally at its worse during that timeframe. What really shocked me was how well it held up overnight; it never even allowed 4 to make a legit cut, unlike Melee which got gouged by FFX for hours at a time! Between Brawl smacking around MGS4 by 10 and TP crushing RE4 by 9, all of a sudden this next round has gotten a whole lot more interesting. Is RE4 going to top MGS4 to prove 3 \> 4? Since they're clearly the strongest two games, could BOTH Wii flagship titles possibly survive? Is TP going to hang so tough that the two just murder each other and let those strong independent titles advance instead? Anything seems possible right now! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3501&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=56) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=56) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Super Mario Bros. vs The Legend of Zelda vs Super Mario Bros. 3 vs Super Mario World 2009 _source: Super Mario Bros. vs The Legend of Zelda vs Super Mario Bros. 3 vs Super Mario World 2009 (revid 65294)_ ## Results **Round Four** Tuesday, June 2nd, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Quarter Final - **Match \#:** 57 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, June 2nd, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Mario Bros. 3 - 29.26% Super Mario World - 28.41% The Legend of Zelda - 27.05% Super Mario Bros. - 15.59% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Mario World first place (16pts) - 7.79% Mario World second place (8pts) - 9.94% Mario 3 second place (16pts) - 16.52% Mario 3 first place (8pts) - 23.03% - **Advancing Prediction:** Super Mario World - 17.73% (6,790) Super Mario Bros. 3 - 39.55% (15,146) It took until the fourth round, but we finally got to watch some matches that weren't inter-generational. Generation divisions are decent enough, but a big mix of games can be exciting as well. Not that 3 Marios and a Zelda is the greatest concept, but this made for arguably the most exciting match of the contest. First, the obvious. Mario World took advantage of a 3 NES vs 1 SNES split and turned the tables on Mario 3's performance of the previous round -- where Mario 3 slipped by Mario World with the help of 3 SNES era games splitting. Mario 3 was in the match for a couple hours, but Mario World and the 3 NES split was too powerful for Mario 3 to overcome. Mario World would eventually win fairly easily, by a final margin of 2200 votes. Super Mario Brothers, despite coming in last place, didn't do *that* badly given it was clearly eating the ass end of SFF from three different games. One could even argue Mario 1 being in the poll cost Mario 3 first place. The true match however was the unbelievably epic and simultaneously weird match between Mario 3 and Zelda 1. Remember, in the previous two rounds Mario *1* took out Zelda 1 fairly easily. Now thanks to the perfect storm of SFF split and circumstance, Zelda 1 was able to blow right by Mario 1 and take its crack at the vastly stronger Mario 3. But early on, this match had no indication whatsoever that it would be the best match of the contest and a down to the wire affair. This match was all about Mario 3 vs Mario World for a few hours, to the tune of Zelda 1 stuck back in third place by 1000 votes within two and a half hours. Mario 3's lead increase slowed down overnight when it was clear it couldn't beat Mario World, but it was still never threatened by Zelda 1 at all. It just slowed down and took until the morning vote to build a 1400 vote lead. No sweat, right? Well from there, Zelda 1 stalled. And stalled. And stalled. And then it stalled some more. It stalled the match at that 1400 vote margin all the way until the ASV, but even then there was no indication at all of having a close match. We were just seeing another weirdly powerful Zelda 1 result, to the tune of keeping the match even for something like eight hours. Then the ASV hit with full force, and all holy hell broke loose. Zelda started cutting into Mario 3 pretty heavily, and before long each of Mario 3's stalls seemed like a divine prank to give us the coolest match possible. Amidst a ton of 30-50 vote gains, Mario 3 would stall now and then. But even with Zelda cutting into Mario 3 like crazy for a little while, it was starting from down 1400 votes. That is a *long* way back in an SFF match, hence all the strange updates from all four games all through the poll. There was however a trend during the ASV, which was Zelda 1 kicking Mario 3's ass. It kept up the pace of 30-50 vote cuts all the way through the ASV, and all of Mario's stalls seemed a desperate attempt to tread water before the inevitable. It's rare we can call a 1400 vote comeback inevitable, but the pace Zelda 1 was on during this match's ASV was unheard of. Zelda's gains slowed down as the ASV wore down and the evening vote began, but the overall trend remained the same: Zelda 1 was coming fast. The lead was cot all the way down to 200 by 9 p.m. Given Zelda's pace, it seemed as if it could take the lead with plenty of time to spare. But much like the previous round, Mario 3 began holding serve during the second night vote, giving us one of the most memorable down to the wire finishes of all time. Though Zelda's gains were drastically slowed, it was still able to overall win updates and it got the lead down below 100 with over 90 minutes left in the poll. With one hour to go, it was down to 50 votes. One update later, 33. Two updates after that, 15. Zelda's win was all but guaranteed at this point, and come 11:30 it *finally* took the lead. All it had to do from here was continue kicking Mario's ass, much like it had been doing for 9 hours prior. Zelda however made one crucial miscalculation here, which is that it forgot it was in a down to the wire poll against Mario. When you're in a close match against one of the most notorious clutches in the history of contests, you choke Mario out when you have the chance. Zelda did not. In the update following the lead change, Zelda only increased 4 votes for an overall lead of 13. Mario began coming back after that, taking the lead down to 2 with 15 minutes left to go. Before Zelda even knew what was going on, Mario pulled out the most questionable update of the entire contest -- a 55 vote swing that gave Mario 3 a lead of 53 votes with only three updates left to go. This gave Zelda time to mount one final offensive. It took the next two updates getting Mario's new lead down to 23 votes, which gave us the first final update match in recent memory. The damage however was done, and Mario secured second place with one final lead increase. The story obviously was the mysterious 55 vote swing (the update graph shows how fishy the whole thing seemed), and after the two winners were put into the overall bracket, Bacon removed them to make cheating checks. He never did make a topic explaining what he saw that night, but he eventually penciled in Mario World \> Mario 3 as the official result, setting off a whole new firestorm of GameFAQs being on the take for Mario. If you were here in 2002 or 2003, you need not be reminded of how badly Crono was screwed over in both Mario matches. Six years later, we had a different cast with the same story and the same ending: Mario pulls fishy updates out in the final few minutes to win. The sad thing here is even if you cut that 55 vote update in half, Mario 3 still wins the match given how good a final update it had. But as things stand, Mario is once again convicted by the court of Board 8 public opinion as a cheater. True or not, Mario has pulled off some stupidly fishy matches for seven years now. As for how Zelda managed to get this close at all, this match had some really weird splits going on. 3 Marios and 1 Zelda meant if you weren't a Mario fan, you voted for Zelda here. It's the only way to explain Zelda losing to Mario 1 twice, then nearly beating a far stronger game. The irony here is this set up an equally weird match in the semifinal. Had Mario 64 pulled off the comeback against Link to the Past, we would have had FF7 against the three strongest Mario titles. Can you imagine how good FF7 would have looked here? ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction This one is... just insane. I know everyone has been way down on LFF this season, and I have to admit that it hasn't been nearly as big a deal as it was back in '07 and '08. And I further realize that last round's Mario \> Mario \>\>\> FF result makes it seem pretty silly to think that a Nintendo-backed and therefore less independent non-Mario option is going to benefit from LFF when Final Fantasy couldn't. Well... call me crazy, but I still like Zelda here! Everything we've seen this season makes it abundantly clear that this is the weakest game in the pack, and probably by a decent margin, but we're talking about a situation we've never even come close to in these Contests before. THREE flippin' Marios? Come on, it's a given that something wacky is going to happen, and a major Zelda overperformance seems the most likely option. That being said, I can't imagine it wins easily. We know World v 3 is going to be very tight (I'll give SMW the benefit of the doubt just for being the most recent slash only non NES option, but it's probably with a percentage pt either way) and I think they'll both finish hot on Zelda's heels. As for Mario 1, ehhh... if any other series were in this position I'd pick the weakest of its three games to collapse right through the basement, but I have a hard time seeing that happen to something as respected and iconic as M1. It'll get hammered, yes, but I'm thinking the game still has enough supporters to keep it afloat in the low teens or so. Which means we should be looking at a final percentage right around - The Legend of Zelda - 29.32% - Super Mario World - 29.21% - Super Mario Bros. 3 - 28.97% - Super Mario Bros. - 12.50% Seems... risky, but I like it! ### Next Day Review Wellll, I called that match wrong, but I still like my pick. I was correct in having Mario 1 get bashed down to nearly 10%, correct in favoring SWM thanks to recency, and ALMOST correct about Zelda capitalizing on the triple LFF. Actually, dang my percents must have been close... let me check the Oracle. 1\) yoblazer33 Legend of Zelda 29.00% SMB 10.00% SMB 3 30.00% SMW 31.00% 49.46 12.37 2\) Ngamer64 Legend of Zelda 29.32% SMB 12.50% SMB 3 28.97% SMW 29.21% 49.11 9.82 3\) Master Moltar Legend of Zelda 27.00% SMB 13.00% SMB 3 29.00% SMW 31.00% 49.01 7.35 Whoa, didn't realize I did that well! Also check out that awesome Crew (and ex-Crew) domination, pretty nice. But anyways yeah, the result was close enough where if Nintendo would have just worked a LITTLE harder to produce a trailer for the new Wii Zelda in time for their morning conference Z1 would have easily advanced, and perhaps even challenged for the win, so I'm not going to beat myself up about it. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3502&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=57) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=57) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Link to the Past vs Final Fantasy VI vs Final Fantasy VII vs Super Mario 64 2009 _source: Link to the Past vs Final Fantasy VI vs Final Fantasy VII vs Super Mario 64 2009 (revid 65297)_ ## Results **Round Four** Wednesday, June 3rd, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Quarter Final - **Match \#:** 58 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, June 3rd, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy VII - 36.04% Zelda: A Link to the Past - 26.66% Super Mario 64 - 21.98% Final Fantasy VI - 15.57% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** FF7 first place (16pts) - 49.76% FF7 second place (8pts) - 19.53% Zelda:ALttP second place (16pts) - 16.32% Zelda:ALttP first place (8pts) - 12.40% - **Advancing Prediction:** Final Fantasy VII - 69.29% (26,535) Link to the Past - 28.72% (10,999) One match after the best match of the contest, we were treated to another doozy. The problem here is we literally saw the *exact* same trends the day before, so we pretty much saw what was coming once Mario 64 began stalling LTTP. More on that later. This match was basically three matches in one: FF7 SFFing the hell out of FF6, LTTP vs Mario 64, and FF7 playing one-up with Ocarina. And once again, FF7 looked better this round. FF7 scored 40% in an SFF match with FF6 plus LTTP and Mario 64. Ocarina also scored 40% in an SFF match (plus FFX), but Mario 64 and Link to the Past are collectively stronger than SSBM and Pokemon RBY. You can argue semantics and formats all you want, but Mario 64 and Link to the Past would each beat either of the Nintendo games Ocarina dealt with. FF7's 40% was more impressive than Ocarina's 40%. This said, tell me if any of this looks familiar. LTTP does well early and builds a lead of 800 votes. Mario 64 stalls a bit, but LTTP eventually builds an 1150 vote lead going into the ASV. Mario 64 comes storming back despite a lot of stalling from LTTP, but falls short in the end. This match wasn't quite the nail-biter Mario 3 vs Zelda 1 was -- Mario 64 was never really on a pace to win, got the lead under 200 with only 30 minutes left and lost by 245 -- but the trends were virtually identical. This is fairly strange, for two reasons. One, the games were backwards. Mario 64 played Zelda 1's role and Link to the Past played the role of Mario 3. You'd think two game names swapping places would yield a different trend, even just a little bit. But it did not. And for two, Zelda 1 vs Mario 3 is more or less a pure SFF match given both games are on the NES. Mario 64 and LTTP are both Nintendo games, but one was an SNES game and the other was Nintendo 64 -- 2D Zelda against 3D Mario, with both games being rather even in strength. A 1v1 with these two would be great, but as is they more or less fought for FF7's scraps. This match proved LTTP was legit along with Mario 64, but it also hinted at GameFAQ's youth movement. As of this analysis being typed up, a "Do you still own an Super Nintendo?" poll is seeing "No, I never owned one" score nearly a third of all total votes. We're getting younger, and older games, no matter what series they're from, are slowly decreasing in popularity as a result. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction With two Marios through to the next round the question becomes... can we get a third? It certainly looked possible a couple weeks back when Mario 64 stunned the world with that original CT upset, but after coming back down to earth in R3 (which I still blame mainly on GE BTW) you've got to make LttP the favorite to advance here. That being said, there are still a few things working in M64's favor: - Zelda obviously isn't a true RPG, but I still feel that its fanbase overlaps with Final Fantasy moreso than Mario- the platformer advantage makes 64 the best sore thumb candidate by genre - LttP shares the SNES with FF"3", but FF7 also shares the PSX with FF"6", making Mario one again the clear sore thumb favorite by system. it's also got recency thanks to its many re-releases, and stands out an extra amount as the only true 3D option - outside of Ocarina, Zelda just hasn't had any "wow" moments this season, while the Mario series has been scoring them seemingly every other day. clearly Mario's the one coming into this poll on a hot streak while Link's outings have been largely underwhelming All that being said... ehhh, there's still a reason we consider LttP the \#3 game on the site, and I can't possibly see it having fallen like CT and FF6. I'm expecting Mario to put up another solid performance but never really be in contention to advance here. Other than that, there won't be too much to see, except that FF7 probably looks very good for the second round in a row since it will get to beat 6 into a pulp. In summary, my Awesome Oracle-Winning pred is - Final Fantasy VII - 37.03% - The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 24.95% - Super Mario 64 - 24.34% - Final Fantasy III (VI) - 13.68% Seems a sure bet for another Top Five showing! ### Next Day Review Haha, this is too crazy! A day after Zelda puts the fear of the Lord into Mario with an extremely impressive ASV comeback, Mario turns right back around and gives Zelda the scare of its life during this afternoon. Makes sense I suppose, since both times "the kiddies" favored the title with recency, though I think in today's case M64's also seeing a nice sized DS re-release boost to help out with those younger voters. It's just sad that despite so many close matches this season none of them have had that "awesome" factor because its always same company/basically same era and so there's no bad blood between the two fanbases. Currently its looking like LttP's going to hold out for the win, meaning we won't get to settle that Top Three Mario debate once and for all. Ah well; at least we get to see if LttP can capitalize against two Marios where Z1 failed to against three. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3503&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=58) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=58) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs Pokémon Red/Blue/Yellow vs Super Smash Bros. Melee vs Final Fantasy X 2009 _source: The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs Pokémon Red/Blue/Yellow vs Super Smash Bros. Melee vs Final Fantasy X 2009 (revid 65296)_ ## Results **Round Four** Thursday, June 4th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Quarter Final - **Match \#:** 59 - **Match Date:** Thursday, June 4th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 34.00% Final Fantasy X - 24.09% Super Smash Bros. Melee - 22.02% Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow - 20.44% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Zelda:OoT first place (16pts) - 50.15% Zelda:OoT second place (8pts) - 10.45% FF10 second place (16pts) - 8.23% FF10 first place (8pts) - 2.84% - **Advancing Prediction:** Ocarina of Time - 60.60% (23,207) Final Fantasy X - 11.07% (4,239) Not every late round match gets to be fun, and this match definitely fit that mold of not being fun. Pokemon RBY held even with Final Fantasy X for 10 minutes, but eventually felt the brunt of the SFF hammer and the match more or less ended. Final Fantasy X reaped the benefits of good bracket placement here, because Zelda is the Nintendo SFF King. Melee got absolutely destroyed in this match, and Pokemon may very well have beaten FFX if *any other game* from this bracket replaced Ocarina. As is, all this match proved is Pokemon resists Nintendo SFF better than Smash Brothers. This doesn't prove any FFX/Melee/RBY pecking order, doesn't settle the FFX vs Melee debate and doesn't really settle how strong Pokemon RBY truly is. It held up well yes, but it's likely on LTTP's level indirectly. Even though Final Fantasy X didn't look all too dominant leading up to this match, it made the semifinal and would only need one more stroke of luck to give us our cookie cutter final we all hoped against. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction And now for possibly the match of the year! This one has been covered just about every which way in everyone else's Crew writeups, so I'll just do some quick bullet points. - I had to push and shove just to find a way to get Ocarina above 35 in this one since none of these other options are going to collapse- rest assured that FF7's going to "beat" it for the second straight round, but that's a very tainted victory given how I don't think there are any two Nintendo games in the world more likely to hold up well against OoT (and therefore bring its percent down slightly) - insane that I have to take Melee for 4th place; this is literally the only (non-FF7) combination of games in this bracket where I'd pick that way. the bracket just produced a perfect storm that is going to leave this game in the basement despite being possibly the 4th or 5th strongest game on this site in a fair setting - FFX on the other hand is pretty clearly the weakest of these options, in my mind. considering the track record for 'weaker game advances thanks to LFF' this year, expecting it to happen here seems silly, and I agree, but... I'm doing it anyway. while it's true that FF8 didn't even come close to capitalizing on the Nintendo split, I've always felt that MGS and FF series have a little bit TOO much in common, at least when it comes to the PSX/2 era. so killing MGS ought to give FF a boost, replacing it with Melee should boost it even further, and X being a decent bit stronger than 8 in any kind of setting should be the icing on the cake - that being said, I feel awful about counting out Pokemon after all that this series has been through. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if RBY pulled a Pikachu here and advanced easily despite the long odds, and I really wish I could pull the trigger on that upset, but I just get the impression that FFX is no L-Block or Dante or Leon- its got enough of a fanbase to push it through to victory if things get tricky out there Converted into numerical form, those thoughts come out looking something like this: - The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 35.05% - Final Fantasy X - 22.52% - Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow - 21.25% - Super Smash Bros. Melee - 21.18% Seems... pretty good, I think! ### Next Day Review Oh jeez, this is BRUTAL. Ocarina is doing to Melee exactly what it pulled on Mario 64 and Goldeneye back in '04... except SSBM doesn't get the excuse of sharing the N64, AND we thought it would hold up better than anything else (non-Pokemon), AND we thought it was flat out stronger than Mario 64/GE to begin with. Triple ouch! Looking these results over, you can't help but feel bad for Pokemon. All season long RBY has battled long odds, beating off tough competition despite having an anchor named OoT around its neck most of the time (and as Melee is showing us today, that's not a light anchor by any means!), yet it gets snubbed one step short of the Championship (seriously now, Brawl/TP/MGS4 were never going to catch it) only because FFX was handed perfect circumstances. And in other news, check out Ocarina somehow hulking up enough to actually outdo FF7 directly despite drawing its two worst possible opponents- now that's just flat out scary! That makes it 3 rounds Ocarina 1 round FF7 heading into their Championship showdown; at this poing you've pretty much got to be liking OoT in that one unless MSG4 stuns the world to knock out FFX. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3504&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=59) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=59) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess vs Resident Evil 4 vs Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs Metal Gear Solid 4 2009 _source: The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess vs Resident Evil 4 vs Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs Metal Gear Solid 4 2009 (revid 80609)_ ## Results **Round Four** Friday, June 5th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Quarter Final - **Match \#:** 60 - **Match Date:** Friday, June 5th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 29.05% Zelda: Twilight Princess - 24.88% Metal Gear Solid 4 - 24.73% Resident Evil 4 - 21.33% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** MGS4 first place (16pts) - 7.53% MGS4 second place (8pts) - 10.50% Brawl second place (16pts) - 10.21% Brawl first place (8pts) - 9.12% - **Advancing Prediction:** MGS4 - 18.03% (6,905) Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 19.33% (7,403) This was not only an exciting match, but it was the most important match of the entire contest. A ton of debate about the 4th game to make the finals ended on this day, obviously because two of the contenders lost. As lucky as Resident Evil 4 was in getting to this point, its luck ran out despite a very strong last place effort. You know you've got four strong games in a poll when last place breaks 22%. But in terms of actually placing, RE4 never came close. And even though RE4 was in six matches this contest, we have no freaking clue about its fanbase split. Is it quasi-Nintendo? PS2? Independent? We flat-out don't know, which would make it a sick wild card if we ever got another 1v1 games contest. A lot of strong games came out this contest complete enigmas, but RE4 (along with Pokemon RBY) highlight the list. Twilight Princess didn't need much luck to get to this point, but it too suffered an abrupt exit at the hands of Brawl SFFing it. It is extremely rare to see Zelda suffer even 1 percentage point of SFF, but it happened here. If you remove Brawl from the poll, Twilight Princess scores first or second very easily. As is, this match proved Brawl is *the* Wii title of choice on this site, and would likely dominate or easily defeat any Nintendo game from the Gamecube or Wii era. Given how powerful Brawl was in this contest paired with how off Melee looked before its SFF loss to Ocarina, I don't even think Brawl vs Melee would be a match. Brawl likely takes it pretty easily, unless the newfound drawl dominance in polls turns on Brawl and favors Melee, but we're getting off the point here. Brawl, from first match all the way up its loss in the semifinal, proved that it was 100% legit. With the way it brushed aside Galaxy and handled Twilight Princess, there is no argument to be made against Brawl. It's legit and here to stay for quite a long while. At least, it is in the Nintendo pecking order. Brawl ran into a tiny little problem during its Nintendo victory tour, and that problem was Metal Gear Solid 4. Even though Brawl annihilated MGS4 one round prior, the Nintendo splitting in the rematch allowed MGS4 to stick out like a sore thumb and make a real run at upsetting Brawl in this here match. In fact after Brawl's minor early lead, MGS4 came back and started pouring on the pressure overnight. And this wasn't basic pressure. Brawl and MGS4 were in a footrace, but MGS4 was unhindered and Brawl had RE4 and Twilight Princess wrapped around its ankles. Before Brawl even knew what happened, MGS4 had spent all night building up a lead of 1600 votes, and then spent all morning tag teaming with Twilight Princess to stall any early Brawl comeback attempts. The 1600 vote lead held all the way through the DSV, giving MGS4 a 1450 vote lead going into the ASV. Seemed an easy enough win, but Brawl had one hell of a run left in it. When the ASV hit, all hell broke loose on MGS4's lead. Brawl came *storming* back right on cue, and MGS4 just fell off the map for hours on end. Not only was Brawl cutting votes, it was regularly getting updates in the 50-70 range and looked to take the lead by dessert. The pace slowed down considerably once the hard ASV hours passed, but a ton of damage was done with more yet to come. At 7:30 p.m., the lead was all the way down to 400 votes. One hour later, it was below 300. At 10:25, it dipped below 100. Brawl's gains were slowing down as the match progressed, but it was still gaining fast enough to win. It would however slow down a bit too much near the end and never get quite over the hump. MGS4 took from the deep reservoir of late-night MGS strength to hold off Brawl in the last hour of the poll, securing itself a 105 vote win. Brawl made an unreal effort given the splits in this poll, but it was starting from too far back. 1600 votes is no joke. With this, all three games with any potential of making the final as the fourth game would duke it out next round. Final Fantasy X, Brawl and MGS4. Brawl and MGS4 gave us a match for the ages in this growing rivalry, but in the end both games were able to advance and neither could have possibly felt bad about their performance after the match. Both games are and will continue to be 100% legit. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Pre-contest I'd have called you crazy if you didn't think MGS4 would survive past this match- the Wii was drawing huge backlash internetwide and between that and normal same-system LFF there was no way both Brawl and TP could advance. And although I'd take RE4 \> MGS4 1v1, RE was going to be losing some of its GC and Wii fanbase to the other Nintendo options, making MGS the clear choice for first place. Now, however, I'm not so sure... MGS4 wasn't in such a great position last round, as I detailed in that writeup, but regardless of circumstances getting 59%'d by a game you put up 48% on while riding your GotY high is cause for concern. As for the Wii backlash... WHAT Wii backlash? Brawl looked fantastic in pulling down 37% despite strong competition last round while TP's 32% against even stronger opponents was perhaps even more impressive. As for the same company LFF... WHAT LFF? Aside from extreme threeway cases like today or that Mariox3 fiasco, the leach factor has been conspicuous only in its absence this season, especially where huge playrate series like Zelda and Smash Bros are concerned. Also, I don't think the presence of RE does MGS any favors in this one- as we saw last round, there appears to be something of an overlap between these series that could very well limit them both here, at least slightly, and I'm thinking that spells doom for MGS4's chances. As for the all-Nintendo battle at the top of the poll, I've got to admit that I must be missing something. Why is Brawl such an overwhelming favorite here, again? Sure it beat down Galaxy, but that's looking more and more like a case of Mario not being his usual self post-M64 rather than SSBB being any kind of superhero. And after seeing the way OoT took Melee to the woodshed in this most recent result, its become even more difficult to imagine Brawl plastering TP with Wii SFF as most seem to have predicted. I mean granted TP is no Ocarina, and I do still give Brawl the upper hand in this relationship due to recency and being the \#1 "must own" Wii title on the site for the past year, but I still think Zelda puts up a pretty decent fight. Now I said that pre-Contest I'd have taken RE4 \> MGS4 in a 1v1, but after all that we've seen so far this season... I still would! Unfortunately last round kind of spoiled the "surprise" regarding RE running into trouble when other mature action titles like MGS combine with GameCube or Wii games that steal some of its support from those system, and so I'm not seeing any way for this game to stay out of the basement. Even so, its just too well-loved to be fourth place factor'd IMO- ought to manage to avoid the teens, though I doubt it ever seriously contends for third place. And if all of the above nonsense-talk comes true, we'll be looking at something right around - Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 28.62% - The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess - 25.10% - Metal Gear Solid 4 - 24.92% - Resident Evil 4 - 21.36% I... just don't know about that anymore! ### Next Day Review Oh man, this love-hate relationship with Brawl is just too funny. From last place by a mile during the overnight to looking like Ocarina Reborn the entire afternoon... jeez! Finally we get to see a monumental Day Vote comeback this season- too bad MGS had to spoil it with that strong SNV that seems to bail out this series whenever a result is at all questionable. As for my prediction yesterday, I guess it wasn't THAT bad- sure I underestimated MGS4, but at least I was right on the money about TP hanging tough with Brawl and RE4 refusing to fold no matter what competition you put in front of it. Actually this was a heck of a match, wouldn't have expected 4 games this powerful to give us such an entertaining almost-25/25/25/25 result. Hmm, score one for Ed Bellis (we can afford to- it would be his first score of the year)! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3505&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=60) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=60) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Super Mario World vs Super Mario Bros. 3 vs Final Fantasy VII vs The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past 2009 _source: Super Mario World vs Super Mario Bros. 3 vs Final Fantasy VII vs The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past 2009 (revid 65299)_ ## Results **Round Five** Saturday, June 6th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Semi Final - **Match \#:** 61 - **Match Date:** Saturday, June 6th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy VII - 39.37% Zelda: A Link to the Past - 23.13% Super Mario Bros. 3 - 18.88% Super Mario World - 18.74% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** FF7 first place (32pts) - 43.04% FF7 second place (16pts) - 20.34% Zelda:LttP second place (32pts) - 10.72% Zelda:LttP first place (16pts) - 4.67% - **Advancing Prediction:** Final Fantasy VII - 63.38% (24,272) Link to the Past - 15.39% (5,894) This match may have been interesting if Mario 64 completed its comeback against LTTP, but as is this is one of the easiest to call late round matches we've ever had. FF7 was a lock for first place, and Zelda was obviously going to prevail among the three Nintendo leftovers given the Mario split. This match was a near-lock for FF7 \> LTTP, and was all about the incoming FF7 vs Ocarina final. And again for the fifth time in a row, FF7 won the comparison game. Its problem was forgetting it was the stronger game once the actual final came around. Nearly 45% is much more impressive than Ocarina's 41% on weaker competition, though the Nintendo SFF obviously helps FF7's percentage along. With half the final set, it was time for our last exciting match of the contest. ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Moving on to FF7 versus The S/NES Gang. Let's start with the obvious: FF7 will look like a destroyer of worlds, going to town on these guys with over 40 and almost certainly increasing its % from last round now that FF6 is out of the way. (If 7 allows OoT to outscore it once again this round despite the perfect setup, I'll have to shake my head in disgust!) Also obvious (I think?): Mario 3 reverses the most recent result by taking down SMW thanks to LttP being around to soak up some of that SNES love. Basically this situation is the polar opposite of last time; now World's recency doesn't do it a bit of good since both LttP and FF7 are newer, while M3's iconic/nostalgic/historic aura will be working overtime. In other words, the only thing to talk about is the battle for 2nd place, and... man, I really wish I could go with Mario 3. From one perspective the upset makes sense: LttP \> Zelda 1, yes, but is it really ahead by THAT much? And this time around the Mario options won't be throwing 12% of the vote away on M1... plus wouldn't it make sense for Mario to hold up better in the presence of FF than Zelda does? I kind of think so. But then Mario 64 has to go and burst my bubble. Even if Mario 3 \>\> M64 (probably not true- got to imagine they're nearly neck and neck these days after what 64 did to CT), 64 had FF7 plus SNES-era FF6 around to hold back LttP last time yet it couldn't get the job done. Now that 6 has been replaced with another Mario option, its got to be lights out. Then again, its not like Mario hasn't shocked us 100 times already this year despite unfavorable circumstances. And whatever happened to all that "with 95% playrates, same series LFF doesn't matter!" talk from rounds past? But, nah, still can't pull the trigger. For the record though, after all we've seen this season I WOULD be taking Mario 3 \> LttP here with any non-Nintendo platformer in the fourth position! Also I think that in any case, the Marios stick closer to Zelda than most are giving them credit for. And that should result in a final percentage right around - Final Fantasy VII - 42.01% - The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 21.75% - Super Mario World - 18.40% - Super Mario Bros. 3 - 17.84% Wait, what the JUNK? In my rushing around last night I apparently forgot to swap Mario 3 into 3rd place in my Oracle pick. So I'll, uh, stick with this. Crap! ### Next Day Review Good heavens, was that ever embarrassing! I was dead wrong about FF7 (45% of the vote at this stage of the bracket? It had the ideal situation, I know, but even \*I\* have to admit that FF7 has asserted itself as the game to beat with a showing like that.), dead wrong about the Marios hanging tight with LttP, and even dead wrong about Mario 3 gaining an advantage over SMW with there being no other NES options around. (Luckily my foolishness in not double checking my pred saved my Oracle from that last mistake!) It's the second thing I mentioned that really bothers me... Mario had by far his best season since the Summer of '05, with his three top tier titles stunning us left and right through the whole bracket, and yet the final impression they leave is coming up miles behind LttP and missing out on a Championship that quite frankly they deserved to be represented in. What a shame that World couldn't have been placed in the bottom bracket where it could have challenged R/B/Y and FFX and the SSB/MGSes, and that 3 didn't get a legit shot at LttP or, um... oh wait, that was the only other game of strength in the upper half. MIX THE ERAS next time, SB! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3506&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=61) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=61) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs Final Fantasy X vs Metal Gear Solid 4 vs Super Smash Bros. Brawl 2009 _source: The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs Final Fantasy X vs Metal Gear Solid 4 vs Super Smash Bros. Brawl 2009 (revid 65300)_ ## Results **Round Five** Sunday, June 7th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Semi Final - **Match \#:** 62 - **Match Date:** Sunday, June 7th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 39.04% Final Fantasy X - 22.84% Metal Gear Solid 4 - 21.34% Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 17.07% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Zelda:OoT first place (32pts) - 40.56% Zelda:OoT second place (16pts) - 9.28% FF10 second place (32pts) - 3.12% FF10 first place (16pts) - 2.03% - **Advancing Prediction:** Ocarina of Time - 49.84% (19,087) Final Fantasy X - 5.15% (1,972) Ocarina was obviously going to get first place here to secure the third spot in the final, so the true match was between the other three games to finally settle our debate for the fourth final spot once and for all. It would have been nice for this to get decided by base strength, but Ocarina SFFing Brawl prevented this. Brawl could very well have made the final if this were just a three way poll between the three weaker games, but bracket placement and luck are a big part of the game in this format. Brawl fell behind early and was completely unable to catch up based on Ocarina's presence. It was a shame to see Brawl's run end this way, but it happens sometimes. The true match ended up FFX against MGS4, and early on MGS4 was a clear recipient of bandwagoning. MGS4 took a slim early lead, and pushed back any FFX push with a spiked increase. This is usually a sign of rallying and bandwagoning, especially late in contests. MGS4 continued this pattern for a couple of hours, but was unable to hold it once the heavy night vote kicked in. The deep night is Final Fantasy's best time, and FFX used it to erase MGS4's miniscule 200 vote lead. From there it rose to heaven and won second place fairly easily, giving us our fourth entrant for the final. A few games might have beaten FFX given different bracket placement, but in the end we got the cookie cutter final predicted as soon as the bracket came out. Ironically, the final looked like it would be no contest given how FF7 outperformed Ocarina five times in a row. But *that's*, as Chris Berman would say, why they *play the games.* ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction That brings us to the second to last match of the season, and it seems everyone agrees that this will be a dullfest. I'm... not so sure. Yes Ocarina is going to dominate (though I don't see any way it could possibly contend with FF7's Nintendo-bloated percentage) and yes Brawl will be last by a light year (I do think it holds up better than Melee did, but thanks to Pokemon being in the mix last time who knows if that will mean anything). As for FFX/MGS4 though, hmmm. I just don't think its wise to count MGS out entirely. Yes its the weakest of these 4 options naturally, but there are a few things working in it favor to help balance that out, IMO. - many voters are sick of Nintendo/Square domination, and as we saw with Snake last season, that can work to MGS's favor; people might hesitate to vote another FF into the Final, especially after seeing FF7 put up nearly 50 yesterday - the MGS base is more dedicated than anyone, including FF- we saw this when FF8 collapsed to allow MGS1 the heads up win. granted X \>\> 8 while 1 ~= 4, but Ocarina and Brawl combined ought to be sucking up a large enough percentage of the votes to help even that playing field - as I've said before, I think there's a good deal of playership overlap between Zelda and FF, and I guess Square in general- Snake's powerhouse showing in the last Final seems to bear this out somewhat. being the most independent option could work wonders since, again, the Nintendo choices are going to be taking the lion's share here The trouble with backing the MGS upset is that FFX is just so so good overnight and then holds its own fairly well all through the day, whereas MGS falls down the stairs during the ASV. The only way I could see 4 pulling this off would be to get a huge start in the opening three hours, thereby creating enough Snake-like rally momentum to keep it within range for the MGS "clutch factor" of the last two hours. But, eh, that's too much a long shot for me to pull the trigger on. Still think the race for second will be closer than most are calling for though! - The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 41.77% - Final Fantasy X - 21.87% - Metal Gear Solid 4 - 20.47% - Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 15.88% BAM, I like it! ### Next Day Review Oh sweet, that ended up being another pretty solid prediction for me! Brawl held up a tad better than I expected and limited Ocarina's mobility somewhat as a result, but I was right on the money when it came to the battle for second place. MGS had an excellent first three hours, then X went nutzo when Europe started to wake up just as it always does, BUT 4 countered by hanging pretty tough all through the overnight. Once the sun rose on the East Coast though, poof, that dream was gone- had to pretty much settle for going even with Brawl from there out. Actually, hmm, I wonder how good my pick was exactly... 4\) Ngamer64 FF X 21.87% MGS4 20.47% SSBB 15.88% Zelda: OoT 41.77% 49.16 4.92 Awwww yeah, that's what I like to see! Anyways, let's check how Brawl vs Melee ended up. From my quick calcs, looks like Brawl managed... 30% directly, while Melee pulled down just 26.25%. But factor in Pokemon plus Melee naturally being expected to overlap more given how the games were only 3-4 years apart, and... CRAP, it's still too close to call between these two. Oh well, guess we'll have to just go on debating that one for the next 24 months! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3507&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=62) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=62) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Final Fantasy VII vs The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past vs The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs Final Fantasy X 2009 _source: Final Fantasy VII vs The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past vs The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs Final Fantasy X 2009 (revid 65301)_ ## Results **Championship** Monday, June 8th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Tournament Final - **Match \#:** 63 - **Match Date:** Monday, June 8th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy VII - 36.55% Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 35.19% Zelda: A Link to the Past - 14.72% Final Fantasy X - 13.72% - **GameFAQs Expectations:** Zelda:OoT first place (64pts) - 18.34% Zelda:OoT second place (32pts) - 20.22% FF7 second place (64pts) - 17.79% FF7 first place (32pts) - 34.13% - **Top Two Prediction:** Ocarina of Time - 38.56% (14,767) Final Fantasy VII - 51.92% (19,883) This was obviously the hyped cookie final, but the entire thing was over in about 5 seconds. Ocarina of Time rode a lot of circumstantial factors all the way to the championship, dominating Final Fantasy 7 in the process and becoming GameFAQs' new \#1 game. Thought FF7 outperformed Ocarina of Time in every round leading up to this point, the horrendous early vote for the entire Final Fantasy series, paired with people not wanting a repeat champion and Zelda having Final Fantasy's number since the series contest all factored into a very easy Ocarina victory dance. One could blame Final Fantasy X's presence for Final Fantasy 7 losing, but Link to the Past had equal opportunity to hurt Ocarina. Fact is Ocarina won a fair fight, and Team Zelda defeated Team Final Fantasy, much like the series contest. For FF7 to have won this, it would have needed MGS4 to make the final and for LTTP to hurt Ocarina a LOT more than it did. As is, LTTP barely fazed Ocarina at all. FF7 is still leagues better than all but one game on this site, but FF as a whole gets anti-voted to holy hell in every contest, and as such always gets in a huge hole early against games of even strength. Sometimes they come back, like FFX did against MGS4 or FF the series did against Mario. But against something like Zelda that never shows any mercy in any poll, it's a death sentence. People held out hope of an FF7 comeback for hours, but it was all a pipe dream. This poll was Ocarina's victory tour from the opening bell, and the way it won so easily despite doing worse than FF7 shows how huge the play rate is of this site's most popular games. We talk about SFF and all that in pretty much every match, but the fact is a level of SFF exists in all polls with popular games in them. Ocarina of Time, you're 2009 champion! Now all we need is a third games contest being 1v1 with Ocarina and FF7 removed from the main bracket for a Tournament of Champions thing, since they're both so far ahead of everyone else. If only we could see FF7 vs Ocarina in a 1v1 setting before then... ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Of course the REAL thing everyone's concerned about is Ocarina versus FF7. I said yesterday that FF was sure to win the "looked better in R5" award and I'm afraid I have to stick with that stance. 41% against the strongest MGS (yes, I'm now willing to concede that 4's extreme independence makes it the cream of the crop in this format- I'd still take 1 \> 4 in a 1v1 however!) and 2nd strongest FF is incredible, especially when you consider that combined OoT and Brawl pushed for nearly 60%. But 45% of the vote against ANYONE in R5 is simply unbelievable, and frankly shouldn't even be possible. Raw percentage-wise, I'm going to give FF7 the edge heading into this Championship. Luckily there's something working in Ocarina's favor that could perhaps help balance things out- its vote trends. We all know how legendarily bad FF7 is with the early vote, and that's more or less held true here in 2009, but the classic counter used to be "no problem- it'll just rise to heaven the entire rest of the day!" Now though, not so much... yes the game still dominates like no other during the dead hours of the night, but then its been completely stagnating within an hour of the sun rising. And mostly its had no excuse- aside from Mario 64, all the games its been smashing on the top half of the bracket are old as dirt and shouldn't be stealing the "kiddie vote" from what's supposed to be the most beloved game on the site! Ocarina on the other hand has been a day vote BEAST- even last round when there was an ASV monster named Brawl hanging around OoT still kicked the competition in the teeth for the entire final 15 hours of the poll. In other words I'd be shocked if FF7 didn't lead the match from about the 4 hour mark straight through the night, and there's a good chance it even appears to have the poll salted away during that time. But I'd likewise be stunned if OoT didn't start taking huge chunks out of that least almost immediately after sunrise, and if the comeback gets serious enough to carry momentum and rally power into the ASV, this becomes Ocarina's match to lose. In summary I would favor OoT for the win ever so slightly if this were a 1v1. However as we well know its NOT (darn you SB!), meaning its time to factor in how the presence of the other two options will affect this outcome. Let's start with LttP, which I think is going to do... not a whole lot, really. Sounds weird to say this considering the game technically earned its "third strongest on the site" bragging rights this season, but, was anyone actually impressed by anything Link to the Past accomplished in '09? To me the closest it came to a "wow" moment was when it crunched stablemate LA down to the low teens, but that was a dubious accomplishment at best given how little we know about the lesser Zelda. The rallying cry for LttP against OoT has always been "a ton of people prefer 2D Zelda, and those types are diehards- they'd never betray LttP for a 3D game!" Now though I'm not so sure... haven't we always used the same "classic", "iconic", "diehard" arguments for Mario 3? Those sure don't look so hot after its 15% outing the other day. Just seems that as soon as we moved out of the 8/16 bit-only matchups recency became the driving force of the season, and I see that continuing in the title match- people are going to drop LttP when they see OoT in trouble, and they'll drop it in droves. Okay, but won't people just as easily abandon FFX if they see their beloved FF7 in trouble? I say... not necessarily. Like I was just saying, recency has played a major role in these matches (much like it always seems to do in GotY polls), and there's little doubt that X is THE RPG of the past two generations (and for many people THE GAME, period). Also, the Final Fantasy fanbase has always seemed to be much more fractured than Zelda's- this is what we used to explain the BSE result, and I think it held true when FF6 put up a better fight against 7 than we'd been expecting (alright, FF4 \> FF1 was brutal, but it seems clear now that 1 operates on something like 70% franchise votes). Yes fans will jump ship to help save 7, but I just can't picture X being entirely sucked dry here as I imagine most will be predicting. In summary, even though LttP should still end up ahead of FFX in total percentage, I'm expecting X to do more to hurt its big brother's chances- Square LFF is just naturally a bigger deal than it is for Nintendo, as we've seen all year long. That combined with Ocarina's superior Day Vote and increased rally potential is enough for me to declare OoT a favorite in this Final... though only ever so slightly! Let's see those percentages. - The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 37.50% - Final Fantasy VII - 37.00% - The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 14.00% - Final Fantasy X - 11.50% Uhhh, would have liked to keep 7 closer to OoT and X a little closer to LttP but didn't have time as I was rushing out the door. Oh well, this is the right ballpark anyways. Goooo Ocarina! ### Next Day Review Hmm, I just don't know about this SB fellow. We tell him to run a 1v1 Contest and he ignores us, we tell him to mix the eras and he ignores us, we suggest how to improve the bracket even with 4ways and era splits in place and he ignores us. Then we ask for an epic Ocarina v FF7 Bonus Poll, and he delivers... but delays the announcement to the point where by the time the match is confirmed, the result is already a foregone conclusion! I mean I give the guy credit for coming around lately (giving us Games like we wanted, letting us replace some games with others, having us make the match pics, now this bonus poll- all nice touches), but he seems to be doomed by bad timing or bad luck or something, as even when he has good intentions things never turn out quite as well as we would hope for. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3508&num=4) - [Guru Match Predictions](http://www.thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=63) - [Oracle Match Results](http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k9&type=match&match=63) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## Final Fantasy VII vs The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 2009 _source: Final Fantasy VII vs The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 2009 (revid 71365)_ ## Results **Bonus Match** Tuesday, June 9th, 2009 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Bonus Match - **Match \#:** 64 (Extra) - **Match Date:** Tuesday, June 9th, 2009 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 50.99% 32 for - 11 against Sweet, a 1v1 bonus match between the two "winners"! Bacon had balls like grapefruits to give us this poll, because he knew full well going in that a bonus match between FF7 and Ocarina of Time would ruin all of his faulty logic about why we were stuck with a 4way contest. Something about more exciting matches, higher vote totals, higher site traffic and more opportunity for ad revenue? Yeah, BS. This bonus match, a 1v1, outscored the tournament final by over 10,000 votes. From a pure site hits standpoint, the choice is obvious. And even if you take the route of people thinking this match was the actual final, this further proves the point of 1v1s being better. Casual voters considered this a match that mattered, and it far outscored any 4-way match from the main bracket. The fact is, 1v1s will always be better than gimmicky 4-way formats, and this match proved people will come out in equal or greater amounts for a true 1v1 bracket. Bacon just hasn't given 1v1s a legit chance, and of course he can hide behind the site traffic excuse when we haven't seen a true 1v1 contest in three years. Duh Bacon, of course site traffic goes up over a three year period. It's common sense. However it required*huge*nuts to give us this bonus poll, so major kudos to him for it. Now this just needs to be translated into 1v1 contests for the future, since the results speak for themselves. As for the actual match, Ocarina replicated its performance from the final. Final Fantasy 7 was never in the poll, and that was that. Ocarina defeated FF7 twice, fairly and in two different high-scoring formats, to become out undisputed new \#1 game. No excuse can be made for FF7's loss other than Ocarina just being better. Ocarina has always been a guaranteed top 2 on this site, but until 2009 it had never won. It had always been dominant, but no tournament wins. Now it has one. And just in case you're one of the few who thinks 4-ways are more exciting because of raw vote margin and prediction percentage numbers, use some common sense. Of course prediction percentages and vote margins are cut in half when two more entrants are in a poll. Durrrrrrrrrr. It means nothing about which format is better, plus Ocarina finally getting a contest win is exciting regardless of the final margin. With the 2009 PCA now over, time for the traditional contest ranking! 2009 games is arguably the best possible contest we could have had given the format and generations, and was our fourth best contest overall. Summer 2002 Contest (Characters) Spring 2004 Contest (Games) Summer 2003 Contest (Characters) Spring 2009 Contest (Games) Summer 2005 Contest (Characters) Spring 2006 Contest (Series) Summer 2007 Contest (4-Way Characters) Summer 2006 Contest (Female/Male Character Split) Summer 2008 Contest (4-Way Characters) Summer 2004 Contest (Characters) Spring 2005 Contest (Villains) See you all next year, where we hopefully get a 1v1 games contest! ## Match Trends ## Ngamer's Same Day Analysis ### Match Prediction Let's talk about The Rematch of the Century Except Not Really! Ocarina took down FF7 with a little over 52% of the vote directly in their 4way match. Now normally I would say that as a result FF7 has no chance to reverse the decision, because LttP probably hands over 86% of its votes to OoT (because given the similar... well, everything across the series, if you love one Zelda it seems extremely likely that you'd support another one) whereas FFX probably gives FF7 only 78% of its votes or thereabouts (there's a more clear distinction between different games in the FF series and the fanbase is more fractured as a result- I could easily imagine 10% of FFX fans HATING 7 for one reason or another). When you combine that with the fact that LttP surpassed X's vote total last match, things look mighty grim for 7. In fact I would even go as far as to say that Ocarina would have an excellent shot at reversing its 54% loss to back in '04 by throwing that same number back in FF7's face here in 2009. HOWEVER, this match doesn't place in a vacuum- here in the real world there are certain intangibles that need to be taken into account, and two of those figure to work in FF's favor. 1\. "The Revenge Vote". This factor has been highly overrated in the past, but even so, I could see something along these lines working against Zelda in this matchup. In the same way voters were upset with Zelda/FF dominance and backed L-Block and Snake the past two years, I could see people wanting to take Zelda back down a peg after it won so easily, and backing FF7 would certainly be the way to do it. Plus, doesn't it just make sense for some undecided voters to side with 7 in the hopes of keeping the result interesting, given how easily OoT took the poll yesterday? 2\. "Nintendo fans are sometimes... *kind of dumb*." Back in 2004 we had that very strange day where only people logged into their message board accounts were having their votes counted in the Pokemon vs Xenogears poll. Xeno was winning the match handily, but we figured G/S/C would do much better after those results were wiped and the match got a fresh start the following day- surely the unregistered "casual kiddies" would be way more likely to back Pokemon, right? Instead Xeno just won by EVEN MORE than the day before- to explain it we assumed that casual unregistered Nintendo fans just weren't voting as often on the second day, assuming their vote had already been counted. Then in 2006, Samus was eliminated in Day One of the Battle Royale. Yet in Day Two, Mario's vote percentage inexplicably went DOWN, despite the assumption that he had the most to gain from former Samus voters. Again, it appeared that Nintendo backers were confused by what they thought was a match they'd already cast their vote for and didn't look any closer. (This was somewhat backed up by overall votals plunging that day- they recovered in later days once everyone realized what was going on.) In other words, it seems possible that some of Zelda's support will evaporate here out of pure confusion. I don't know if I'd necessarily BET on that happening, but it seems a real enough possibly that, combined with point 1, I'm going to lower my prediction to - Ocarina of Time with 53.11% Boy, sure feels good writing out a prediction in the classic old 1v1 format. Here's hoping I get to do that 63 more times in the next 5-6 months! ### Next Day Review Huzzah for OoT! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3509&num=4) • **Previous Match**       • **No Next Match**