# Character Battle VIII (2010) _Board 8 wiki -- CC BY-SA 3.0. Contest overview plus 127 match writeups, in match order. Converted from MediaWiki to Markdown; navigation, image embeds and footnotes stripped. See ATTRIBUTION.md._ --- ## Winter 2010 Contest _source: Winter 2010 Contest (revid 87617)_
Winter 2010 Contest

Announced:

November 6, 2009

Started:

January 15, 2010

Ended:

March 21, 2010

Winner:

Winner: Link Runner-up: Cloud

Contest Winner:

Dr Football - 429 points

Notable matches:

Red vs Ocelot, Crono vs Missingno, Ryu vs Dante,

Charizard vs L-Block, Sephiroth vs Missingno,

Samus vs Cloud Strife, Solid Snake vs Sephiroth
**Winter 2010 Contest** **Winter 2010 Contest** was the eighth GameFAQs character tournament held on GameFAQs. It's more commonly referred to as **Character Battle 8** (CB8 for short), since "2010" is slightly confusing (nominations and bracket creation actually took place in 2009, but the opening matchup didn't happen until after the new year). ## Ulti's Pre-Contest Analysis – The Missingno poll. He won this thing going away, at the expense of fellow Pokemon Mudkip and Jigglypuff. No one knew at the time how many characters would make the main field from here, but obviously it would end up being Axel, Lightning and The Boss. Lightning was the cutoff line, edging Scorpion by 300 votes. The whining about Missingno during this poll was amazing, and it was great foreshadowing for the main contest. The lesser characters here were interesting enough, I guess. The Boss and Raiden seem independent of one another, Toad looks like he has a decent fanbase thanks to NSMB Wii, and Alex Mercer was the casual bait representative. The main thing here is Dan Hikibi and Yoshimitsu sucking it up. Can we stop the rally pushes for these two in every NRT? Fun Tidbit: – This poll had a very clear cutoff point in it. Frog, Rikku, Liquid Snake, Midna and Big Daddy were a cut above everyone else. Even though we didn’t yet know what Bacon’s cutoff line was in these vote-ins, those 5 coming from this poll seemed easy enough. Big Daddy was especially impressive, given he had Andrew Ryan sharing the poll as an albatross. Of all the losers here, very little stands out. It’s hard to believe Diddy and Olimar have made the field in the past, and Archer doing well for a little while made for some great fads for a day. If this match had a picture, Archer probably would have won! He looks just like Dante. – Another poll where a clear cutoff line exists between haves and have-nots. Jecht, Sub-Zero, Spy, Proto Man and Ridley all did well. But by this point, people (namely Mega Man fans) were very worried about how many characters from each poll would actually get chosen. Proto Man finished close to Ridley for fourth place, but the number 4 is a much more mathematical number when talking about brackets. Past the top five, there was a jumbled mess of low fodder and true fodder. Bayonetta, Kain Highwind, Etna, Lara Croft and Sho all did about the same. Bayonetta suffered from bad timing, since her game came out just after the bracket was made. At the bottom, Bub failed to catch any momentum at all from the Gamespot contest and Doc Louis actually made the vote-in after HaRRicH’s year-long joke rally. T E A M C H O C O L A T E – Probably the strongest group of any vote-in. Cid and Aeris from FF7 both did very well, and almost LFFd each other out of first and second place. Tails finished just behind Cid after leading him most of the day, and Simon Belmont finished very close to Tails. There’s a gap after this before you get to Prince of Persia, which ended up being the cutoff line for the poll. Morrigan, Chun-Li and Little Mac all finished relatively close to making the main field, and even Godot did fairly well here. Sol Badguy even making the vote-in was a shock for Guilty Gear fans, and past him is the fodder. Maxwell is from an overhyped disaster, and no one likes Emil. – One day later, we probably got the weakest group of all the vote-ins. This was the only vote-in where 4 characters were taken instead of 5, and for good reason. Mega Man X obviously dominated this poll, and HK-47 and Vault Boy also did well. Past them, everyone either sucked or got caught up in the weak Nintendo character LFF mess. Falco ended up winning that king of the hill fight over Lucas, Wario and Spyro (I know Spyro isn’t technically Nintendo, but he has the same type of appeal). Beyond them, tons of fodder not worth mentioning. – The last vote-in conveniently had a clear cutoff point. Akuma and Meta Knight rolled this thing, and tier 2 was clearly Marth, Peach and Thrall. Tier 3 would have been Isaac Clarke, KOS-MOS and Kerrigan, but they didn’t make the field. You could probably even make a Tier 4 given everyone left over did pretty well. Personally, I like considering these vote-ins a part of the contest itself so we can keep alive the trivia point of CATS making every character field. When the dust settled and Bacon finally announced the bracket, characters and rules, the final result was amazing. 128 characters, 8 divisions of 16 in an NCAA style format, and 12 hour 1v1s until the final four. Personally, this is the best possible format we could have asked for, because everyone gets their own way. The 1v1 fans get their 1v1s, the random chaos fans get potential hilarious bandwagons from the matches being so short, Bacon gets his 128 entrants, and everyone collectively got to laugh at the crying 4way fans for enjoying their terrible format so much. With any luck, this contest symbolized the permanent death of that god-awful format. They are a bad gimmick, nothing more. ## Ulti's Post-Contest Analysis Personally, this contest ranks \#4 for me. People look forward to my annual ranking for whatever reason, and here it is: Spring 2004 \> Summer 2002 \> Summer 2003 \> Winter 2010 \> Summer 2005 \> Fall 2009 \> Summer 2007 \> Summer 2006 \> Spring 2006 \> Summer 2008 \> Summer 2004 \> Spring 2005 The only thing Winter 2010 is missing are photo finishes, but those are extremely rare and we can't expect them all the time. But this contest had everything else we like; unpredictability, great matches, good runs by characters we didn't expect, great matches, unexpected matches, the works. And most important, 1v1s ARE BACK BABY THANK CHRIST. Given all we know about stats and trends, 1v1s under this new format is the best thing we would have ever asked for. Now all we need is removal of Link, this format for a games contest with no generations and slightly better bracket placement. From there, we're gold. Last but not least... The Ultimate Loser!™ = Geno! Link \> Cloud \> Snake \> Sephiroth \> Tifa \> Big Daddy \> Ness \> **Geno** Poor guy. ## 2010 Contest - Useful Articles - Board 8's 2010 Match Pics - Board 8's 2010 Nominations - Winter 2010 Total Nominations - Winter 2010 Vote-In Polls ### Coming after the conclusion of the Contest - 2010 Contest Matches - detailed write-ups on every '10 Contest poll - Most Surprising Results of 2010 - Most Impressive Performances of 2010 - Winter 2010 Match Trends ## Tournament Bracket *Click on the date above each match to see its article page.* ### Division Rounds | | |---------------------| | **Hyrule Division** | | | | Jan 16 - **60599** | | 1 | | 16 | | Jan 16 - **65187** | | 8 | | 9 | | Jan 17 - **58208** | | 5 | | 12 | | Jan 17 - **81068** | | 4 | | 13 | | Jan 18 - **55360** | | 3 | | 14 | | Jan 18 - **79846** | | 6 | | 11 | | Jan 19 - **49202** | | 7 | | 10 | | Jan 19 - 33295 | | 2 | | 15 | | | |--------------------| | **Chaos Division** | | Jan 20 - **53494** | | 1 | | 16 | | Jan 20 - **71995** | | 8 | | 9 | | Jan 21 - **52248** | | 5 | | 12 | | Jan 21 - **72497** | | 4 | | 13 | | Jan 22 - **53126** | | 3 | | 14 | | Jan 22 - **58971** | | 6 | | 11 | | Jan 23 - **53492** | | 7 | | 10 | | Jan 23 - **76041** | | 2 | | 15 | | | |-----------------------| | **Mushroom Division** | | Jan 24 - **54944** | | 1 | | 16 | | Jan 24 - **74661** | | 8 | | 9 | | Jan 25 - **50552** | | 5 | | 12 | | Jan 25 - **73321** | | 4 | | 13 | | Jan 26 - **51979** | | 3 | | 14 | | Jan 26 - **73599** | | 6 | | 11 | | Jan 27 - **46209** | | 7 | | 10 | | Jan 27 - **78003** | | 2 | | 15 | | | |--------------------| | **Heart Division** | | Jan 28 - **50852** | | 1 | | 16 | | Jan 28 - **55285** | | 8 | | 9 | | Jan 29 - **47495** | | 5 | | 12 | | Jan 29 - **70310** | | 4 | | 13 | | Jan 30 - **52093** | | 3 | | 14 | | Jan 30 - **60871** | | 6 | | 11 | | Jan 31 - **56465** | | 7 | | 10 | | Jan 31 - **77724** | | 2 | | 15 | | | |--------------------| | **Varia Division** | | Feb 01 - **50755** | | 1 | | 16 | | Feb 01 - **75369** | | 8 | | 9 | | Feb 02 - **54437** | | 5 | | 12 | | Feb 02 - **77410** | | 4 | | 13 | | Feb 03 - **49879** | | 3 | | 14 | | Feb 03 - **61507** | | 6 | | 11 | | Feb 04 - **48896** | | 7 | | 10 | | Feb 04 - **70538** | | 2 | | 15 | | | |---------------------| | **Midgar Division** | | Feb 05 - **55398** | | 1 | | 16 | | Feb 05 - **63025** | | 8 | | 9 | | Feb 06 - **48,172** | | 5 | | 12 | | Feb 06 - **66028** | | 4 | | 13 | | Feb 07 - **55924** | | 3 | | 14 | | Feb 07 - **71165** | | 6 | | 11 | | Feb 08 - **51297** | | 7 | | 10 | | Feb 08 - **71779** | | 2 | | 15 | | | |--------------------| | **Gear Division** | | Feb 09 - **51803** | | 1 | | 16 | | Feb 09 - **67654** | | 8 | | 9 | | Feb 10 - **49808** | | 5 | | 12 | | Feb 10 - **66039** | | 4 | | 13 | | Feb 11 - **51628** | | 3 | | 14 | | Feb 11 - **69053** | | 6 | | 11 | | Feb 12 - **51259** | | 7 | | 10 | | Feb 12 - **69949** | | 2 | | 15 | | | |---------------------| | **Jenova Division** | | Feb 13 - **54730** | | 1 | | 16 | | Feb 13 - **66761** | | 8 | | 9 | | Feb 14 - **48501** | | 5 | | 12 | | Feb 14 - **91081** | | 4 | | 13 | | Feb 15 - **55350** | | 3 | | 14 | | Feb 15 - **67191** | | 6 | | 11 | | Feb 16 - **52957** | | 7 | | 10 | | Feb 16 - **77719** | | 2 | | 15 | ### Elite Eight | Character Battle VIII Finals | |------------------------------| | | | Mar 17 - **53759** | | A | | B | | Mar 17 - **77348** | | C | | D | | Mar 18 - **59334** | | E | | F | | Mar 18 - **86776** | | G | | H | ## Trivia - Dr. Football won the first place prize because Heroic Palmer accidentally filled out a "just-for-fun" entry - This is the first Character Battle not involving CATS, unless you count vote-ins - This was the first 1v1 contest to take place in 4 years - The Noble Nine's historic winning streak was shattered by Missingno, and Snake ended an eight year 1v1 winning streak for Clinkeroth --- ## (1)Link vs (16)Thrall 2010 _source: (1)Link vs (16)Thrall 2010 (revid 60839)_ ## Results **Round One** Saturday, January 16th, 2010 - **Division:** Hyrule Division - **Match \#:** 01 - **Match Date:** Saturday, January 16th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 36,135 - **Oracle Expectations:** Link - 85.10% 111 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Link - 96.52% (25,105 brackets) ## Ulti's Analysis It's funny how spoiled we are. We're so used to hilarious blowouts from contest titans early that Link falling 0.19% short of 80% on Thrall is somehow a disappointment. Some math can probably be done with the Thrall/Vergil fourway match to show Link's exact underperformance here, but it doesn't matter because fourways are a joke. 1v1 is a whole different animal, and this was our first legit 1v1 in four years. A few percentages were bound to change in that time. That said, Link had to deal with early anti-voting early in all his matches this contest. As popular and strong as Link is, people are truly getting tired of him winning all the time. It's not as loud as "WAAAH FF7 ALWAYS WINS", but it's there. Just look at the 2007 final. Link stayed extremely consistent trend-wise throughout this entire poll, and didn't really go up all that much with the morning vote. This meant two things early on in this contest. The old trends we all knew were getting thrown out the window with matches only being 12 hours. Second, we had officially entered AntiBlowoutFAQs. The days of Zelda 1 scoring hilarious blowouts on Adventure are long gone. Because with the play-ins, the lower seeds are all tempered first. So now the higher seeds all go up against someone that's already won something, while the true joke characters get to have decent seeds and face characters like Ike, Zidane and Captain Falcon. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3730&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=1) - **Next Match** --- ## (8)Alucard vs (9)Magus 2010 _source: (8)Alucard vs (9)Magus 2010 (revid 59632)_ ## Results **Round One** Saturday, January 16th, 2010 - **Division:** Hyrule Division - **Match \#:** 02 - **Match Date:** Saturday, January 16th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 11,113 - **Oracle Expectations:** Alucard - 50.52% 65 for - 47 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Alucard - 53.09% ## Ulti's Analysis This was a very debated match pre-contest, but was one of those over-in-seconds deals come game day. The basic idea was Magus has looked like such crap for so long (true of all of Chrono Trigger, really) that he was not to be trusted in a debatable match, much like the reputation Kefka has. Alucard is somewhat in the same boat, but shows signs of life now and then, did well in the fourways and just looked better than Magus of late. This is the eye test. One character just looks better than the other sometimes. Alucard might be "lol I lost the day vote to Liquid", but Magus did the same thing to a bag of sand. Plus his entire series is falling more and more over a cliff every year. Then there was this being a day match. Both of these characters suck with the day vote, so a lot of people figured they'd both do so badly that Magus could catch an SNV rally and win. Didn't matter. Alucard jumped out to a decent lead early and never looked back en route to absolutely destroying Magus. Magus didn't win a single update all match, nor did he even come close. Every time this guy looks like he can fall no farther, he does. Were Leonhart4 and charmander6000's stats well-known before this contest, Alucard likely would have been the massive favorite even in a night match. Leon's stats have Magus getting 41.33% based on the Sandbag debacle, and he would cheese his way into some great Oracle picks with those stats. I rail on 4ways all the time (and rightfully so), but these two made a great set of stats with some very intelligent 1v1 adjustments. The 1v1 adjustments are the obvious reason why the stats work ;) ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3731&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=2) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Pokemon Trainer Red vs (12)Revolver Ocelot 2010 _source: (5)Pokemon Trainer Red vs (12)Revolver Ocelot 2010 (revid 59634)_ ## Results **Round One** Sunday, January 17th, 2010 - **Division:** Hyrule Division - **Match \#:** 03 - **Match Date:** Sunday, January 17th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 182 - **Oracle Expectations:** Pokemon Trainer Red - 52.18% 77 for - 38 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Pokemon Trainer Red - 51.22% ## Ulti's Analysis New characters are the best. A lot of the board, especially the stats topic, was buried in Red hype for months leading up to this match. And because the character is new, there's no evidence to disprove anyone's claims. It's Schrodinger's Verschränkung. Some people had Red challenging Mega Man X in round 2, while others felt Red would be fodder and get crushed by Ocelot with ease. Unfortunately for those who didn't care, there were few people in the middle and the argument wouldn't stop until the match. Ocelot's a big enigma in his own right. Dude beats Jill before MGS4, then loses to her a year later afterwards. Kind of fitting he ends up getting the fewest nominations of anyone not in the vote-ins. When the match finally began, Red looked like he would cruise to one of those only-close-on-paper wins. He jumped out by 500 through the power hour, and he would eventually get the lead up to 666. Everyone expected the match to be a lot closer than this, but for awhile Ocelot was putting up a real stinker. The other thing everyone expected however was a Pokemon character slowing down at night, especially against something from MGS. The match stalled for a bit after 2 am, but then Ocelot started cutting away. He chipped at the lead for a bit and got it down to 450 over the next couple hours, and then the dead zone kicked in. Ocelot started dominating the dead hours, and erased the entire lead by 6. It was obvious however Ocelot needed to pad a lead before the kids woke up, and he did so. Over the next three hours, he built up a lead of nearly 400 votes. This actually lasted until 9 am, so it looked like Ocelot was in the clear and had avoided the worst. Usually, the BSV starts around 7. Inexplicably, Red failed to win the morning vote, and even come 9 he was only able to get in some minor stalls. Come 10, the lead was still over 300 votes. But then, the perfect storm. Metal Gear Solid is routinely awful during the day, and Pokemon is almost always great during the day. Add all this up, and you get Red erasing 320 votes in 80 minutes, then sprinting to the finish line with a win before anyone could figure out what happened. Red did catch the morning vote and run away with it, it just came a few hours later than expected. People didn't know it yet, but this was how Pokemon would be in the Winter 2010 Contest. This match confirmed two things: Pokemon is no joke, and Ocelot is not trustworthy. If this were a full 24 hour match, Ocelot would have gotten his doors blown off. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3732&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=3) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (4)Captain John Price vs (13)Mega Man X 2010 _source: (4)Captain John Price vs (13)Mega Man X 2010 (revid 59636)_ ## Results **Round One** Sunday, January 17th, 2010 - **Division:** Hyrule Division - **Match \#:** 04 - **Match Date:** Sunday, January 17th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 25,484 - **Oracle Expectations:** Mega Man X - 72.95% 114 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Mega Man X - 74.34% ## Ulti's Analysis There were some very bizarre misseedings this year, and this was the first match where that was on full display. These seeds are pretty much backwards, because there was no way MMX was going to lose this. Almost all of the next-gen casual bait characters completely embarrassed themselves this contest, although it's not really their fault. Gamers are very traditional people who will not let go of older characters easily. Industry overviews aside, this was a very boring match. Price ended up doing a lot better than many people expected, and with a god-awful match pic to boot. But there isn't much else to talk about when MMX gets a 65-35 blowout instead of 70-30. It's a very easy win over an extremely overseeded character either way. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3733&num=1) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=4) \>• **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Luigi vs (14)Meta Knight 2010 _source: (3)Luigi vs (14)Meta Knight 2010 (revid 60469)_ ## Results **Round One** Monday, January 18th, 2010 - **Division:** Hyrule Division - **Match \#:** 05 - **Match Date:** Monday, January 18th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 17,388 - **Oracle Expectations:** Luigi - 65.52% 114 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Luigi - 76.19% ## Ulti's Analysis Congrats, Meta Knight. Your reward for winning first place your vote-in by 1200 votes and being the S tier in Brawl is…. getting fed to Luigi. Meta Knight is strong enough to make a decent run in one of these things, but he always get stuffed into Nintendo matches. 2007 round 1, he gets stuck with Peach, but wins. Then in round 2, he gets to deal with Fox and Wario. 2008, he gets stuck against L-Block and the Duck Hunt Dog in the first round. And then this year. Boom, Luigi. Instant death. Meta Knight is a Captain Falcon in waiting. Good strength, never gets to show it because all his matches are Nintendo SFF-fests. The match itself here was very mundane, though some contest noobs kept arguing about how Meta Knight was actually really strong and wasn't actually getting SFFd or something (even though lower vote totals always indicate SFF is going on). One guy in particular who won't be named spammed the stats topic about this crap for a month until people finally realized never to take him seriously. Luigi is a beast and rightfully deserves praise for how good he always does, but Meta could have easily repeated Falcon's performance in his place. Looking forward to the inevitable (5)Pikachu vs (12)Meta Knight match next year. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3734&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=5) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (6)Amaterasu vs (11)Shadow the Hedgehog 2010 _source: (6)Amaterasu vs (11)Shadow the Hedgehog 2010 (revid 73240)_ ## Results **Round One** Monday, January 18th, 2010 - **Division:** Hyrule Division - **Match \#:** 06 - **Match Date:** Monday, January 18th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 4,142 - **Oracle Expectations:** Amaterasu - 46.93% 38 for - 77 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Amaterasu - 36.27% ## Ulti's Analysis I think this sums it up well enough: From: CrocNRoll \| Posted: 1/18/2010 2:30:00 PM \| \#273 From how the contest is going, the match picture might as well look like this: This was a debate very similar to Alucard vs Magus, with a lot of people picking Shadow on psychological barrier alone. For whatever reason, people still can't get past the 2003 Mario/Shadow match being an absolute fluke. What you're left with since is a character falling more and more off the map every year, against a character in Amaterasu who very easily passes the eye test. In all her contest appearances, including this one, she outperforms expectations. And to go a bit deeper on Shadow, throw out the fluke match and look at everything else: 2003: Beat Wario. 2004: Lost to Tidus. 2005: Doesn't get in. 2006: Doesn't get in. 2007 R1: Distant second place against Auron, pre-RE5 Chris Redfield and Pyramid Head. 2007 R2: Distant last place against Auron, Ryu and Bowser. 2008: Third place against Link, Luke von Fabre and Zidane. There is nothing in there to inspire any confidence at all, and Shadow went out against Amaterasu and further cemented his status as a choke artist. Amaterasu went out and won fairly easily, in a match that only looks close on paper. The lead was 1000 within 2 hours, and Shadow didn't win a single update until 3 hours in. Not that it mattered, since this was a boat race. Most impressive is Amaterasu did this during a day match, where Sonic Team tends to be at its best. Remember, it was a massive ASV that allowed Sonic to pull off that huge comeback against Crono. This match began the massive anti-Sonic hype this contest, and it wasn't until future results started rolling in did people look back and acknowledge Sonic Team as not being that bad. They're not at their god-awful 2008 4way levels, but they’re not threatening Samus either. Somewhere in the middle. To be fair, Shadow isn't altogether bad in these things, and is probably a victim of simple bad luck. But if he wants to get some respect, he needs to start turning these close losses into close wins. And I have just the cure for that! Winter 2011: (8)Magus vs (9)Shadow the Hedgehog. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3735&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=6) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (7)Weighted Companion Cube vs (10)Sandal 2010 _source: (7)Weighted Companion Cube vs (10)Sandal 2010 (revid 59647)_ ## Results **Round One** Saturday, January 16th, 2010 - **Division:** Hyrule Division - **Match \#:** 07 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, January 19th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 27,652 - **Oracle Expectations:** Weighted Companion Cube - 65.71% 113 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Weighted Companion Cube - 75.70% ## Ulti's Analysis Enchantments? It's amazing how an already-irrelevant meme from Dragon Age got enough nominations to be a 10 seed, while everyone else floundered about in vote-in polls. I'm positive Bacon set this up as a funny joke match or something, because no one even likes Sandal. It was a joke match in theory and on paper, too. Everyone remembers L-Block's run in 2007. Everyone remembers Weight Companion Cube's run in 2008. That was all well and good, but Cube threatening 80% in its first 1v1 match is something else. It wasn't all Cube being strong, either. You need only look at the awful vote totals to see that. This was all Sandal sucking. He had no business in the field, especially as such a high seed. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3736&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=7) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (2)Nathan Drake vs (15)The Boss 2010 _source: (2)Nathan Drake vs (15)The Boss 2010 (revid 59649)_ ## Results **Round One** Saturday, January 16th, 2010 - **Division:** Hyrule Division - **Match \#:** 08 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, January 19th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 3,320 - **Oracle Expectations:** The Boss - 47.61% 33 for - 82 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** The Boss - 44.82% ## Ulti's Analysis Another match best summed with a quote: From: FFDragon He lost to CATS. He lost to CATS. He lost to CATS. He lost to CATS. He lost to CATS. He lost to CATS. He lost to CATS. Thanks to Uncharted 2 being Game of the Year most places, Nathan Drake was no longer considered "the guy that got doubled by CATS" to many people. He was the favorite to win his match, especially given he was against a weak MGS character during a day match. MGS almost always sucks in polls when the sun is out, and The Boss especially has never done anything of note. 60-40 against Celes in the wonky female contest and fighting with Tails for third place in some fourway match doesn't mean anything. The main logic in Drake's favor is, how would everyone feel about this match if that CATS match never happened? Drake would likely be a massive favorite. As is, he was still the slight favorite going in. Even when the match began and Boss starting inching out with a lead, Drake fans were convinced he'd come back. Even an hour in, when Boss was up by 400, people still discussed an ASV comeback. This was the first match that bunked old trends. Not only did the ASV comeback never show up, this turned into one of the most boring upsets ever. The match stayed at 52-48 for almost a full 12 hours, with no movement or excitement at all. That's just what you get with Boss matches. She can have an all-day duel with Tails…. but for third place in a fourway poll. That's just how the true patriot rolls in these things; painfully consistent. What sucks for Drake is he did get a massive boost from Uncharted 2 to make himself respectable. It was just not quite enough. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3737&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=8) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Sonic the Hedgehog vs (16)Lightning 2010 _source: (1)Sonic the Hedgehog vs (16)Lightning 2010 (revid 59146)_ ## Results Wednesday, January 20th, 2010 - **Division:** Chaos Division - **Match \#:** 09 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, January 20th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 14,924 - **Oracle Expectations:** Sonic - 72.27% 114 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Sonic - 85.35% ## Ulti's Analysis The reaction to this match was hilarious, and rightfully so. People were expecting good things from Lightning, yes, but not until after the game came out. When this match happened, FF13 wasn't yet released in America. For a good comparison, the consensus Oracle average was Sonic with 72.21%. People figured Sonic, even in a night match would blow the doors off a character whose game wasn't even out yet. Then the match began. Sonic started off a bit slow in the 65% range, but whatever. Weird things can happen early in polls, right? Then another update came in. Sonic didn't budge. Than another update. Sonic didn't budge. Then another update. Sonic didn't budge AGAIN. People soon realized what was going on: Sonic seems to suck now. Not only did Sonic not move, his percentage kept going down bit by bit. He dropped below 62% overnight at one point, and "saved face" by increasing a little with the morning vote. He probably gets to a doubling or something in a full 24 hour match, but this was beside the point. It's rare you see a character look so bad in getting nearly 64% in a poll, but Sonic did that today. And the Sonic Team angst was INSANE. All the people clamoring for a potential upset of Sonic in this division at the hands of Ganondorf or Kirby, and why wouldn't they be? Sonic lost the "Nintendo overlap 4way" excuse with this match. And that was before the Cecil/Knuckles debacle. If you thought Sonic Team looked like crap through this match, it took 12 hours to make it look much, much worse. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3738&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=9) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (8)Cecil Harvey vs (9)Knuckles the Echidna 2010 _source: (8)Cecil Harvey vs (9)Knuckles the Echidna 2010 (revid 59147)_ ## Results Wednesday, January 20th, 2010 - **Division:** Chaos Division - **Match \#:** 10 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, January 20th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 2,879 - **Oracle Expectations:** Knuckles - 59.56% 111 for - 4 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Knuckles - 51.54% ## Ulti's Analysis People were really down on Sonic Team before this match happened. But hey, Knuckles \> Cecil was supposed to be an easy come, easy go blowout that helped the Sonic guys get some respect back. Yeah, whoops. The match started, was almost dead even for 30 minutes and the entire site just dismissed Sonic Team on the spot. This wasn't supposed to be a close match in any way; the Oracle had this at 60-40, and that's with some people seemingly down on Sonic for no reason. Cecil is the dude that got 75-25'd by Kirby. Knuckles is the guy that upset Magus and generally has a day vote that rolls heads. No matter how weak Sonic gets, the whole crew will always have a really good day vote. Yet somehow, this was close in a DAY MATCH with Sonic Team against Old Square. This should have been a complete joke, but wasn't. Knuckles did of course slowly pull away after the early shenanigans ended, then with the ASV he made the match look farther apart than it deserved to be. But make no mistake, this was one of the most Pyrrhic victories in contest history and it more or less made Knuckles Turd of the Contest. You're Knuckles, with a godly day vote against Old Square, who coincides with a TERRIBLE day vote. You don't rely on the ASV to put away Cecil Harvey in a day match and retain respect. You just don't. Given what Cecil pulled off in a day match, he might have actually won a night match. Talk about a guru-buster. This was the first match where people really started talking about a Dissidia Boost, but the big blame was put on Sonic Team. I know Sonic gathered himself in later rounds (maybe because of Sonic 4 info or something), but something was definitely wrong with those guys early in this contest. When Tails comes out looking better than anyone else, something is seriously wrong. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3739&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=10) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Ganondorf vs (12)Mewtwo 2010 _source: (5)Ganondorf vs (12)Mewtwo 2010 (revid 59148)_ ## Results Thursday, January 21th, 2010 - **Division:** Chaos Division - **Match \#:** 11 - **Match Date:** Thursday, January 21th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 9,036 - **Oracle Expectations:** Ganondorf - 61.06% 115 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Ganondorf - 78.61% ## Ulti's Analysis This was a very boring all-Nintendo match where the percentages barely moved for 12 hours. The favorite won, and by a percentage most people expected based on the 2008 stats, so there isn't much to talk about here. What's worth noting is Mewtwo got the shaft this contest. This entire contest was a pokefad, and Mewtwo was the one Pokemon entrant in the entire field stuck in a completely unwinnable position. He did at least make a good run in 2008, so Pokemon fans can't be too upset here. Ganondorf was also a bit of a letdown in this match. The big upset talk this division was Ganondorf potentially breaking the Noble Nine and upsetting Sonic in round 3. If you're looking to do that, you go above and beyond. Ganon didn't do that here, meaning the Sonic upset would have to come from Sonic's weakness and not Ganon's own strength. Bad mix when you're looking for upsets. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3740&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=11) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (4)Albert Wesker vs (13)Ken Masters 2010 _source: (4)Albert Wesker vs (13)Ken Masters 2010 (revid 71256)_ ## Results Thursday, January 21th, 2010 - **Division:** Chaos Division - **Match \#:** 12 - **Match Date:** Thursday, January 21th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 471 - **Oracle Expectations:** Ken - 56.23% 92 for - 23 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Ken - 51.62% ## Ulti's Analysis Every contest has some random first round match that gets stupidly fun for no real reason. This contest's version of that was Wesker vs Ken. Everyone with stats knowledge picked Ken to win this, because Wesker is the guy who got 30% on Kefka and lost to Lloyd Irving. Who really cares about RE5 when you're already so far behind? Besides, Ken was loooooooong overdue to finally get a 1v1 win. There's a reason he smashed the Returner's Tournament this year. Granted he got stuck with a 13 seed, but still. Street Fighta 4 son. Well-known character in any circle. And he's against the-guy-that-let-Kefka-break-70%-on-him. So of course the match starts dead even with Board 8's Ken supporters fighting for their brackets for an hour, then Wesker finally takes control and inches out to a lead of 210. It was one of those close matches where any update gain over 10 was accused of cheating (Side Note: We need 15 minute updates back in the worst way), but the reality is this was just a close, fun match. When Ken started coming back with the ASV, things just got out of control all over the place. Everyone figured Ken would come back with the ASV (especially the insane California ASV, which matters a lot because all the fighting tournaments take place out there and the state's population is massive), but that didn't stop people from having a ball and plastering the entire board with quotes and YouTube videos. It's rare you see a cool match like this between such quotable entities, so people took full advantage. We must have filled 3 full stats topics that day with nothing but IN-DES-TRUC-TI-BLE, YOU CAN'T HIDE FOREVER and CHRIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIS!!!!!!! Not to mention these two vids: As for how the match ended, Ken did come back with the early ASV. But rather than taking the lead with momentum, Wesker shook him off and got the lead back up to 180 in all of 15 minutes. The match then stalled for a few hours, but the California ASV showed up for mopup duty before long. Ken was losing by 200 at 6, and spent the next three hours coming back for good with a Cali-fueled beach bum rage. Ken passed Wesker at 9, then more or less dominated the final three hours. It was a somewhat bad ending to a great match, because Ken ended up having a lead bigger than 460 and failed to break Frog's wire-to-wire record. But that didn't take away from how fun this all was. It's extremely rare you see a close match where everyone has a good time, doesn't really care who wins and was just happy to be there on the boards with other fun people. If only they were all like this. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3741&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=12) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Kirby vs (14)Rikku 2010 _source: (3)Kirby vs (14)Rikku 2010 (revid 59150)_ ## Results Friday, January 22nd, 2010 - **Division:** Chaos Division - **Match \#:** 13 - **Match Date:** Friday, January 22nd, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 8,006 - **Oracle Expectations:** Kirby - 58.49% 113 for - 3 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Kirby - 74.08% ## Ulti's Analysis Kirby had a weird 3/14 match with a cute girl before, but not this year. This was an expected win, it ended within 1% of the Oracle consensus and was wholly boring. Kirby started over 60%, then spent the rest of the night getting pounded down by Asia's love of Square characters. Kirby did pretty much nothing with the morning vote, and finished as expected. "As expected" was bad news for Kirby in the same way as Ganondorf, and more or less proved his 2008 run was a bandwagon fluke. If you're out to upset a Noble Nine character 1v1, you have to overperform in the matches you're supposed to win. Kirby did not do that here. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3742&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=13) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (6)GLaDOS vs (11)Fawful 2010 _source: (6)GLaDOS vs (11)Fawful 2010 (revid 59151)_ ## Results Friday, January 22nd, 2010 - **Division:** Chaos Division - **Match \#:** 14 - **Match Date:** Friday, January 22nd, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 19,791 - **Oracle Expectations:** GLaDOS - 56.41% 106 for - 8 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** GLaDOS - 73.68% ## Ulti's Analysis GLaDOS IS NOT A JOKE CHARACTER. GLaDOS IS NOT A JOKE CHARACTER. GLaDOS IS NOT A JOKE CHARACTER. GLaDOS IS NOT A JOKE CHARACTER. Ahem. Seriously, stop lumping GLaDOS in with joke characters when talking about inanimate objects and such. Portal is like 18 cents on Steam now and 2 hours long. Go play it, stop being ignorant and come back later. For the rest of you, the highlight of this match was probably the picture. These are two of the most unphotogenic characters on the planet, but we ended up with a great pic here. No one had thought to use one of GLaDOS's cores in a picture before, and Fawful didn't look all that awful (rofl) for once. As an actual match, this thing was over in seconds and had some pretty terrible vote totals for being a day match. GLaDOS started out near 70%, fell down to a doubling later and scored a very easy win in what some considered a hyped match. As strong as Nintendo can be, they too can produce total cannon fodder characters now and then. A few people complained about joke characters doing too well in yet another contest (including Ngamer repeatedly ignoring my request to play Portal so he can stop looking silly on the podcast, people don't constantly say GLaDOS isn't a joke character for no reason), although I hesitate to use the term "people" when discussing those who haven't played Portal yet. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3743&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=14) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (7)Vivi vs (10)Donkey Kong 2010 _source: (7)Vivi vs (10)Donkey Kong 2010 (revid 59152)_ ## Results Saturday, January 23rd, 2010 - **Division:** Chaos Division - **Match \#:** 15 - **Match Date:** Saturday, January 23rd, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 6,734 - **Oracle Expectations:** Vivi - 57.71% 111 for - 4 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Vivi - 39.95% ## Ulti's Analysis This match seems oddly familiar…. Oh yeah, the exact same match has already happened before: 6 years later, almost nothing changed. In 2004, Vivi scored 56.47% in this match. Today? A whopping .18% deviation. In 2004, Vivi's prediction percentage was 35.13. Today? It somehow only went up 5% even though the match already happened. Even more odd is the board vote repeated itself from 6 years ago. DK somehow had brackets and hung in for a few minutes before getting buried. It was a boring match the first time, and was only funny the second time because of how people still had faith in DK against the same character that 56-44'd him six years ago. There was no reason for DK to turn this thing around. I look forward to the trilogy's conclusion in 2016. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3744&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=15) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (2)Altair vs (15)Liquid Snake 2010 _source: (2)Altair vs (15)Liquid Snake 2010 (revid 59153)_ ## Results Saturday, January 23rd, 2010 - **Division:** Chaos Division - **Match \#:** 16 - **Match Date:** Saturday, January 23rd, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 13,869 - **Oracle Expectations:** Altair - 48.23% 37 for - 76 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Altair - 55.10% ## Ulti's Analysis Chaos's first round ended with an extremely weird match. This was the performance many were expecting from Nathan Drake -- mass appeal casual next-gen character winning a day match over a little-known MGS character. It should have been easy for Nathan, but somehow wasn't. With this match, we were dealing with two much stronger characters in the same boat. Altair was the 2 seed with massive casual appeal, and he got one of the best pictures ever to boot. Liquid was the odds-on stats favorite to win, especially given how berserk he was in 2008, but something just felt funny about this match. Liquid was the favorite, but there was a growing sentiment Altair was going to pull something off. Then the match pic came out, and people started giving up all hope for Liquid. Granted Liquid looks like crap in EVERY match pic, but we're in a new contest age. Everyone has seen all this stuff before, so now everything matters. Picture matters, bandwagons matter, rallies matter, anti-votes matter. And given how much of the Assassin's Creed strength comes from casual appeal and match pictures, Altair had a massive advantage going in. And even still, could anyone have guessed this would be a 60-40 blowout? Liquid, SFF help or not, beat Luigi twice. One contest later, he goes out and just doesn't even show up against Altair, and all this came less than a week after Boss's upset of Nathan Drake. Altair just totally hammered this poll, which makes the Nathan match all the more confusing. Every single factor people came up with to discredit The Boss against Nathan came to fruition here, and against a character who has proven strong in the past. It makes absolutely no sense. You can come up with any factor for Altair you want here, but most of them are discredited by Altair and Ezio proving to be garbage later on this contest. Liquid just decided not to show up for whatever reason today, in spectacular fashion. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3745&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=16) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Mario vs (16)Falco Lombardi 2010 _source: (1)Mario vs (16)Falco Lombardi 2010 (revid 59154)_ ## Results Sunday, January 24th, 2010 - **Division:** Mushroom Division - **Match \#:** 17 - **Match Date:** Sunday, January 24th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 34,106 - **Oracle Expectations:** Mario - 79.72% 108 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Mario - 93.32% ## Ulti's Analysis Falco did decently in the vote-in, but got stuck as a 16 seed against Mario in the first round of this contest. Mario laid down the SFF nuke in this match, and I believe this was the only match where someone broke 80% the entire contest. Mario or Link tend to get the biggest blowouts in contests, and that didn't change even in our new age of AntiBlowoutFAQs. The days of Snake threatening 95% in a poll are probably long gone. Only other thing worth mentioning here is Fire Mario finally getting into a match picture. Took long enough. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3746&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=17) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (8)Big Boss vs (9)Miles Edgeworth 2010 _source: (8)Big Boss vs (9)Miles Edgeworth 2010 (revid 62571)_ ## Results Sunday, January 24th, 2010 - **Division:** Mushroom Division - **Match \#:** 18 - **Match Date:** Sunday, January 24th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 39,147 - **Oracle Expectations:** Big Boss - 70.27% 110 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Big Boss - 81.81% ## Ulti's Analysis AntiBlowoutFAQs or not, this match proved any character can look really good if put against the right opponent. Edgey is a great character and carries a lot of the Phoenix Wright series, but he flirts with the fodder line annually in contests. He might get a slight boost from Ace Attorney Investigations next year, but he'd have to get paired against complete trash to ever win a match. Like Guybrush Threepwood, for example. It's also weird to think about given Snake's eventual run, but Big Boss was the only MGS character that looked good in the first round of this contest. The Boss lucked out completely by Nathan Drake not being any good, Liquid stunk up the joint against Altair, Revolver Ocelot choked against Red and even Solid Snake himself lost the board vote horribly to Proto Man. Big Boss saved face big time for the series in round 1, and even won the morning vote to slam that point home. His reward? A fourth match against Mario. What's a guy gotta do to catch a break? ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3747&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=2) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Zidane Tribal vs (12)Claptrap 2010 _source: (5)Zidane Tribal vs (12)Claptrap 2010 (revid 62570)_ ## Results Monday, January 25th, 2010 - **Division:** Mushroom Division - **Match \#:** 19 - **Match Date:** Monday, January 25th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 14,516 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zidane - 67.79% 110 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zidane - 78.49% ## Ulti's Analysis AntiBlowoutFAQs was mostly a fad before this match, but it became legitimate once this happened. Claptrap was one of those "who the hell is this guy" characters when the bracket came out, and people were expecting complete murder here. As it would turn out, Claptrap is from some cel-shaded game called Bored-erlands and acts like the robotic version of Navi in it. Basically, no one likes him. Given Zidane's weak contest history, expecting him to make Claptrap the next Tanner was asking a bit much. But expecting a huge blowout was still reasonable, especially given this was a night match and Zidane would have the full benefit of the Square overnight vote. He started off well enough, then dropped like a rock down to 63%. The overnight vote got him back up close to his final percentage, but it didn't prevent the criticism. Zidane \> Ike was a hyped upset pick, but the hype died off once Zidane laid an egg here, especially given upsetting Ike in a day match would be hard enough as is. So naturally, Ike went out and laid an even bigger egg next match. That's just how this contest rolled. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3748&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=19) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (4)Ike vs (13)Prinny 2010 _source: (4)Ike vs (13)Prinny 2010 (revid 59157)_ ## Results Monday, January 25th, 2010 - **Division:** Mushroom Division - **Match \#:** 20 - **Match Date:** Monday, January 25th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 18,319 - **Oracle Expectations:** Ike - 67.71% 110 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Ike - 77.84% ## Ulti's Analysis Zidane went out and bombed against Claptrap, so all Ike really had to do here was smash Prinny to quell all upset hype. Or better yet, all he had to do was pick the Prinny up and throw it somewhere. Boom. Instant death, dood. Instead, he goes "Yeah you suck Zidane, I can bomb WORSE". Verily, it came to pass. Yes this was a 62-38 blowout over the guru winner, but this was still one of the most embarrassing performances ever. The final percentage doesn't even tell the story here, because until Ike's monster day vote showed up Prinny was seriously threatening to keep him at or under 60%. Ike saved some dignity by ASVing it up, but not all of it. There is no excuse here at all. This is Ike, in a day match. This is what he was \*supposed\* to do: Match pic, weird momentum, AntiBlowoutFAQs, whatever. There's no excuse here, and Ike is massively lucky his round 2 match against Zidane was a day match. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3749&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=20) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Mega Man vs (14)Cid Highwind 2010 _source: (3)Mega Man vs (14)Cid Highwind 2010 (revid 59158)_ ## Results Tuesday, January 26th, 2010 - **Division:** Mushroom Division - **Match \#:** 21 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, January 26th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 13,553 - **Oracle Expectations:** Mega Man - 58.83% 108 for - 2 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Mega Man - 76.88% ## Ulti's Analysis At a glance, this looks like an Ed Bellis Special. I love the guy, but he's famous for making really bad picks and taking it all in stride with an awesome sense of humor. I wish the entire board acted like him about getting a match wrong. In actuality, Cid didn't do that bad here. Yes, he got blown out. But for whatever reason, Mega Man's whole series came back in a huge way this contest and could very well be back near 2002 levels. He did well, Proto Man won the board vote against Snake, and Zero also did very well for himself. Mega Man's just one of those characters that would suffer from 4ways because he overlaps with everything. Him being back to form is a good thing. He might not be able to turn the tide on Snake any time soon, but he just might be able to get revenge on that 2002 Sephiroth loss now. Just for the heck of it, let's assume Cid = Aeris (very reasonable given how accurate the vote-ins were all contest long) and check the LOL 2002 X-Stats: Aeris 35.32% 32,885 Sephiroth 64.68% 60,229 I mean really, this isn't within striking distance for Mega Man now? With how bad Sephiroth is falling off the map? Better yet, put Mario against Sephiroth and watch what happens. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3750&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=21) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (6)Zack Fair vs (11)Yuna 2010 _source: (6)Zack Fair vs (11)Yuna 2010 (revid 59159)_ ## Results Tuesday, January 26th, 2010 - **Division:** Mushroom Division - **Match \#:** 22 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, January 26th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 12,669 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zack Fair - 55.44% 96 for - 15 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zack Fair - 56.41% ## Ulti's Analysis Time to bust out "Why does this character get so overrated every year?". Current Subject: Yuna. (Side Note: Yuna is not as popular here as people think. Check these two polls out: ) Summer 2002: Doesn't get in. Summer 2003: Loses to Knuckles in a hyped match. Summer 2004: Doesn't get in. Summer 2005: Blown out by Ganondorf. Summer 2006: Wins 3 matches, gets to the quarterfinal and scores 42% on Zelda. Summer 2007: Second place against Master Chief twice, last place against Chief, Luigi and Ganondorf. Summer 2008: Doesn't get in. Where does all the faith for Yuna come from? The only thing she's ever done was as a direct result of the female bracket, which means about as much as the villain's bracket at this point. Meanwhile, Zack more than proved he was legit last year. Bandwagon or not, SFF help or not, he almost beat Mario. And this was after dominating three matches, two of which had Link in them. This really shouldn't have been a match anyone thought about for more than two seconds. On a related note, Leonhart4 had a perfect bracket and first place in the guru until this match, but the REIGN OF TERROR came to an end at the hands of OUR the ZackUNFair, leader of ZackFAQs. The match was never close, either. For a debated match, Yuna got utterly destroyed. And for the record, I'm a huge fan of hers. But why she gets overrated in contests every year is beyond me. And while Crisis Core was one of the worst games ever made, it wasn't Zack's fault. It's nice having a JRPG main character not be some brooding idiot, for once. Not that you could tell by his pictures, of course, but he is generally a happy guy. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3751&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=22) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (7)Ryu Hayabusa vs (10)Crash Bandicoot 2010 _source: (7)Ryu Hayabusa vs (10)Crash Bandicoot 2010 (revid 59160)_ ## Results Wednesday, January 27th, 2010 - **Division:** Mushroom Division - **Match \#:** 23 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, January 27th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 10,897 - **Oracle Expectations:** Ryu Hayabusa - 67.31% 112 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Ryu Hayabusa - 74.80% ## Ulti's Analysis This division had not one, but two fourpacks of "I can suck more than you". Zidane and Ike took turns bombing in the first round. A couple days later, Ryu Hayabusa and Master Chief did the exact same thing. Chief can be explained. No one likes him, and he gets anti-voted to hell in every single match. He's probably the one character left who would lose a board vote to Sephiroth. Ryu Hayabusa… can't be explained so easily. This was a very strange match, because most people were expecting at least a doubling. Crash had never been more than useless trash fodder in these things, and Ryu H has always been decently strong. He's had good-enough 1v1 performances, and some hilarious 4way moments. This guy once beat Kingdom Hearts by himself, and a year later he beat Zero -- after losing to him 63-37 in 2005. You don't mess with ninjas. But this was Winter 2010, a contest that made no sense. Ryu Hayabusa lost the board vote to Crash pretty badly, then only got up to 64% or so overnight. Then he turned around and got waxed with the morning vote. Getting only 62% on Crash was really bad at the time, and it seemed to stem all talk of a Ryu H \> Chief upset. All Chief really had to do was not embarrass himself against Spy. But, uh…. yeah. This is Master Flop we're talking about. And on a total side note, being a ninja automatically makes you a midcarder on this site. Gamers love ninjas. Shadow would almost assuredly be the strongest FF6 character (and he would SMOKE some fool if he ever made a sprite round), and Edge from FF4 has amazing official art. Someone make this happen. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3752&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=23) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (2)Master Chief vs (15)Spy 2010 _source: (2)Master Chief vs (15)Spy 2010 (revid 59161)_ ## Results Wednesday, January 27th, 2010 - **Division:** Mushroom Division - **Match \#:** 24 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, January 27th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 15,945 - **Oracle Expectations:** Master Chief - 66.16% 111 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Master Chief - 91.76% ## Ulti's Analysis Ryu Hayabusa had just bombed against Crash, and lost the morning vote. The much-hyped round 2 match against Master Chief was a day match, which made said morning vote ownage all the more significant. All Chief had to do was not flop. He didn't even have to be that good, he just had to not suck. But this is Master Flop we're talking about. There was a massive rally for Spy on 4chan for this match, but still. Chief floated at almost exactly 60% for the entire match, did almost nothing with the ASV and was thoroughly embarrassed for 12 straight hours. Some 60-40 matches look really good, like Zack \> Yuna. Some, like this one, are just god-awful for the winner. Chief didn't even do anything with the ASV, his trademark trump card. Make no mistake here, Ryu H's performance on Crash was abysmal in every possible way. But leave it to Master Flop to make it not look so bad. Of course when you really think about it, every vote in this poll was a vote for Spy \<\_\< ## Trivia - Master Chief's 91.76% prediction percentage made him the first character since Donkey Kong in 2002 to break 90% prediction percentage and fail to double his opponent. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3753&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=24) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Sora vs (16)Midna 2010 _source: (1)Sora vs (16)Midna 2010 (revid 59162)_ ## Results Thursday, January 16th, 2010 - **Division:** Heart Division - **Match \#:** 25 - **Match Date:** Thursday, January 28th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 13,866 - **Oracle Expectations:** Sora - 66.29% 109 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Sora - 84.38% ## Ulti's Analysis Midna had one of the weaker vote-in performances among those who placed from them, so it was no surprise she'd be stuck as 16 seed fodder in this contest. But even with her loss as a given, she helped prove a few things about Sora. Sora is basically a stronger version of Master Chief. He never blows anyone out because of Kingdom Hearts anti-votes, never gets blown out because of how popular Kingdom Hearts is and overperforms a lot because of killer morning votes and ASVs. This was a wholly unimpressive 64-36, but this is just who Sora is now. Thrives in fourways, not transitive in 1v1s and can't score a mega blowout ever. Mr. Driller or Tanner could probably break 20% on this dude. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3754&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=25) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (8)Laharl vs (9)Neku Sakuraba 2010 _source: (8)Laharl vs (9)Neku Sakuraba 2010 (revid 59163)_ ## Results Thursday, Wednesday, January 28th - **Division:** Heart Division - **Match \#:** 26 - **Match Date:** Thursday, January 28th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 6,983 - **Oracle Expectations:** Laharl - 52.20% 82 for - 28 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Laharl - 61.99% ## Ulti's Analysis This match seems oddly familiar. Oh right, it's almost identical to this one: It was very similar in percentage, prediction percentage and even match pic appearance with all the purple. Granted Laharl was in both of these polls, but still. There's a contest Bacon won a prize in with an unknown user name, and he hasn't revealed which. Given how similar some of this bracket was to Summer 2004, Summer 2004 was likely that contest. With this match specifically, we have two cult characters in an 8/9 match that seem paired together on purpose. In 2004, the logic was Vyse being a contest before, being slightly less cult and being the top option in the poll -- primary and recency effect, in other words. Fast forward six years, and we get the exact same thing with another 8/9 Laharl poll. Laharl is slightly less cult, has been in contests before and was the top poll option. This made him the favorite to win this win-by-default poll, and that's exactly how it played out. It was an easy, expected win for Laharl, but you need only look at the lack of percentage shifts and vote total to see how much people really cared about this one. 55k total votes in a day match is dreadful. Maybe six years from now, Neku will be an 8 seed against Guybrush Threepwood in a day match or something and get handed an auto-win. For now, Laharl finally got his contest win and was removed from the list of long-time losers. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3755&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=26) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Kefka vs (12)Arthas Menethil 2010 _source: (5)Kefka vs (12)Arthas Menethil 2010 (revid 59164)_ ## Results Friday, January 29th, 2010 - **Division:** Heart Division - **Match \#:** 27 - **Match Date:** Friday, January 29th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 10,043 - **Oracle Expectations:** Kefka - 46.68% 22 for - 87 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Kefka - 73.87% ## Ulti's Analysis This was one of those most surprising, hilarious first round results. Thanks to Kefka routinely bombing in contests at every turn, people had completely lost faith in him doing anything. Every year he gets hyped, and every year he falls flat on his face. This was contrasted with Arthas, who put up good performances in 4ways and more or less equal to Diablo in the fourway stats. Diablo was a convenient barometer, because arguably Kefka's best contest featured him losing to Diablo. For all these reasons, Arthas was the massive guru favorite. Which made this complete murdering all the funnier. Not only did Kefka win, but he just totally massacred Arthas. There wasn't even an identifiable corpse. Some 60-40 matches can look bad for the winner, but this was not one of those. Kefka completely, thoroughly, utterly embarrassed the heavily favored Arthas. People figured Arthas = Diablo based on fourways, but in reality he's proven to be another Kerrigan in real matches. Just one more character in an ensemble, popular PC cast. Kefka made himself look really good this contest, but that only goes so far. Arthas dropped the ball here, big time. This was one of those guru-buster matches where the casuals made us look like idiots, but more importantly it helped continue proving how unreliable 4ways are for evaluating 1v1s. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3756&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=27) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (4)Bowser vs (13)Frog 2010 _source: (4)Bowser vs (13)Frog 2010 (revid 59165)_ ## Results Friday, January 29th, 2010 - **Division:** Heart Division - **Match \#:** 28 - **Match Date:** Friday, January 29th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 18,588 - **Oracle Expectations:** Bowser - 61.69% 109 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Bowser - 80.23% ## Ulti's Analysis Figures the very match following a perfect LOL 4-WAYS result would go almost exactly as the 2008 stats predicted. That's just how Winter 2010 was. This was actually not a good thing for Bowser at the time, since the whole debate was whether he could upset Sora or not. And even though he did beat Sora this contest, only doing as expected on Frog, followed by that terrible performance against Kefka sort of foreshadowed Bowser's end in this. But the big thing here is "Why does this character get so overrated every year?", Frog Edition. Summer 2002: Doesn't get in. Summer 2003: Doesn't get in. Summer 2004: Barely beats Liquid, barely beats Master Chief thanks to late shenanigans, overperforms on Solid Shit. Summer 2005: Looks like crap against Riku, gets 70-30'd by Samus. Summer 2007: Needs a highly suspicious late rally to prevent Axel from swinging 2000 votes in a fourway poll, then gets third place against Samus, Scorpion and Midna. Summer 2008: Second place against Ganondorf, KOS-MOS and Neku, then gets third against Ganon, Samus and Nightmare. Frog gets overrated annually thanks to past shenanigans, and at this point we can almost guarantee he's cheated multiple times. Yes Chrono Trigger is weakening, but GameFAQs also has airtight security measures against cheating in polls now. If you think this isn't a huge reason why CT has fallen off the map, you're naïve. CT fans always attempt to cheat, all the way back to 2002, and occasionally they've succeeded. Now that the cheating no longer works, they've been awful. Not a coincidence. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3757&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=28) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)L-Block vs (14)HK-47 2010 _source: (3)L-Block vs (14)HK-47 2010 (revid 59166)_ ## Results Saturday, January 30th, 2010 - **Division:** Heart Division - **Match \#:** 29 - **Match Date:** Saturday, January 30th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 14,473 - **Oracle Expectations:** L-Block - 63.23% 108 for - 3 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** L-Block - 73.48% ## Ulti's Analysis A lot of sentiment flew around this contest about how Winter 2010 would be the death of joke characters, including Ngamer64 picking the HK-47 \> L-Block upset on the contest podcast. This sentiment was only half right, and only for a few characters. This contest wasn't the death of joke characters (just look at how Missingno did), but it did symbolize a lot of the 4way bandwagons becoming transitive. L-Block once built an 825 vote lead on Link in 5 minutes. 3 years later, he proved to be quite mortal and transitive, and in a way he got very lucky to be thrown into a terribly weak fourpack of characters. HK-47, Isaac and Professor Layton isn't exactly murderer's row, and very few people thought L-Block could get past Charizard or Kratos. Not only did L-Block come back down to earth this contest, but he even lost his trademark joke trend. He began this match at 66%, and only fell a little bit from there. Not exactly an overpowering win fitting for a former champion. L-Block will likely always make the field, maybe even with high seeds, but he'll never again be what he was. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3758&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=29) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (6)Isaac vs (11)Professor Layton 2010 _source: (6)Isaac vs (11)Professor Layton 2010 (revid 59167)_ ## Results Saturday, January 30th, 2010 - **Division:** Heart Division - **Match \#:** 30 - **Match Date:** Saturday, January 30th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 22,871 - **Oracle Expectations:** Isaac - 58.17% 108 for - 3 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Isaac - 71.30% ## Ulti's Analysis The one issue with a large contest field of 1v1s is you get a little bit of dilution, and more than a few boring matches like this one. There was never any doubt Layton was going to be complete trash, but letting someone like Isaac get close to a 70-30 is borderline unacceptable and worthy of never making a contest ever again. The one bright side here is Isaac \*finally\* got a contest win, after seven long years of waiting. It all began in 2003 with Samus completely crushing him, and he's been inching forward ever since. He almost pulled off a massive upset over Lucario in 2008 (and helped further how god-awful Guybrush Threepwood is in the process), but this year he finally got that long-awaited win. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3759&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=30) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (7)Charizard vs (10)Duke Nukem 2010 _source: (7)Charizard vs (10)Duke Nukem 2010 (revid 59168)_ ## Results Sunday, January 31st, 2010 - **Division:** Heart Division - **Match \#:** 31 - **Match Date:** Sunday, January 31st, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 16,117 - **Oracle Expectations:** Charizard - 56.45% 95 for - 15 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Charizard - 53.36% ## Ulti's Analysis For whatever reason, this match was highly debated in some circles. It shouldn't have been, and Charizard went out and proved that in all of 3 seconds. This was a doubling for a little while, but eventually fell to 64-36. A lot of people thought this was some massive surprise, but the reality is Duke Nukem is just weak. Although it's hilarious some x-stats have Duke \> Kefka even after everything that happened this contest. Charizard would go on be very legit, but that wasn't really proven by this match. Duke is the same guy that lost to Marth, of all people. The main excitement here came from the match picture. Red box art communist Charizard against American Hero Duke was something else. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3760&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=31) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (2)Kratos vs (15)Miles "Tails" Prower 2010 _source: (2)Kratos vs (15)Miles 'Tails' Prower 2010 (revid 83459)_ ## Results Sunday, January 31st, 2010 - **Division:** Heart Division - **Match \#:** 32 - **Match Date:** Sunday, January 31st, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 16,972 - **Oracle Expectations:** Kratos - 66.94% 110 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Kratos - 85.60% ## Ulti's Analysis Even with Charizard seemingly being a strong character, the ball was still in Kratos's court to prove he was worthy of his 2 seed. This contest had some very bizarre 2 seeds, but most assumed Kratos wasn't one of them. On top of all this, Sonic Team looked like crap so far this contest. All Kratos had to do was annihilate Tails to cement his status as the favorite in the suddenly-debated Charizard/Kratos match. So in standard Winter 2010 fashion, Kratos disappoints big time. Not only did he struggle to break 60%, he did next to nothing with his trademark day vote. This can somewhat be blamed on Sonic characters also having a good day vote, but this match was an embarrassment no matter how you look at it. When you're heavy favorite and you let TAILS be the only member of Sonic Team to not look like crap, something is wrong. It doesn't take a big knowledge of extrapolated standings to know Charizard's performance on Duke was a \*lot\* more impressive than Kratos's showing against Tails, and it was clear Kratos was in a bind for round 2. Fun side note: Despite how well Kratos did in the 4ways, this match against Tails is his only 1v1 win. Ever. And he sucked doing it. LOL 4ways. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3761&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=32) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Samus Aran vs (16)Prince of Persia 2010 _source: (1)Samus Aran vs (16)Prince of Persia 2010 (revid 59170)_ ## Results Monday, February 1st, 2010 - **Division:** Varia Division - **Match \#:** 33 - **Match Date:** Monday, February 1st, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 29,127 - **Oracle Expectations:** Samus - 75.12% 108 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Samus - 89.92% ## Ulti's Analysis Over 1 in 10 people picked Prince to win this match? Really? The only noteworthy thing about this poll is how awful Prince's match picture is. Cel shading is normally terrible, but that thing makes even Wind Waker Zelda look well-designed. Samus routinely has one of the best board votes of any character, and it showed up again this contest. It'll be hard for her to outdo that hilarious start against Sam Fisher back in the day, but this came close. She had over 90% of the votes for a bit at the beginning before stabilizing at 81% and falling a bit later. Doesn't matter. Samus was a total beast through her entire path this contest. More on this in later rounds ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3762&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=33) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (8)Niko Bellic vs (9)Jill Valentine 2010 _source: (8)Niko Bellic vs (9)Jill Valentine 2010 (revid 59171)_ ## Results Monday, February 1st, 2010 - **Division:** Varia Division - **Match \#:** 34 - **Match Date:** Monday, February 1st, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 25,943 - **Oracle Expectations:** Jill - 55.72% 107 for - 3 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Jill - 62.59% ## Ulti's Analysis Grand Theft Auto and its characters are notorious for falling into irrelevancy quickly, and that trend continued this contest. For whatever reason, Vice City is the only thing related to GTA with lasting strength. Not San Andreas, GTA3 or any of the characters. Niko was the only GTA character to make the field, and he didn't bother to show up. Jill was close to 70% here before the ASV showed up, and even then the match didn't become respectable. Niko just got totally wrecked, and there was some hype after this match of Jill maybe doing well on Samus. No matter how far and fast GTA tends to fall, Jill did a little better than people expected. The fall helps, but this was also the first match where a potential across-the-board Resident Evil boost came into play. RE5 was a god-awful game, but you can't really deny its impact. Everything in the series performed above expectations this contest. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3763&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=34) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Roxas vs (12)Heavy 2010 _source: (5)Roxas vs (12)Heavy 2010 (revid 59172)_ ## Results Tuesday, February 2nd, 2010 - **Division:** Varia Division - **Match \#:** 35 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, February 2nd, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 7,583 - **Oracle Expectations:** Roxas - 59.25% 108 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Roxas - 77.42% ## Ulti's Analysis This was a really strange match. Roxas was a lock to win it, but for the second time 4chan decided to have a huge rally for a Team Fortress 2 character. It didn't help Heavy get anywhere close to winning, but he managed to win a few updates overnight and pull Roxas's percentage down to 55% from 61%. Even with how bad Kingdom Hearts characters do overnight, that's a pretty large dropoff. Then the morning vote hit, and Roxas flew back upwards until the end. Trends aside, the only exciting thing about this match was the picture. When Roxas of all people can look as hard as Heavy, you know there's a good picsmith responsible. Oh right, KP made the pic. Duh. No wonder. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3764&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=35) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (4)Tidus vs (13)Sub-Zero 2010 _source: (4)Tidus vs (13)Sub-Zero 2010 (revid 59173)_ ## Results Tuesday, February 2nd, 2010 - **Division:** Varia Division - **Match \#:** 36 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, February 2nd, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 5,976 - **Oracle Expectations:** Sub-Zero - 49.29% 46 for - 64 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Sub-Zero - 41.68% ## Ulti's Analysis "Why does this character get so overrated every year?", Tidus Edition. 2002 (Before any contest): Summer 2002: Beats Claire Redfield 55-45 (LOL), breaks 40% on Sonic. Summer 2003: Barely loses to Ganondorf. Side Poll from 2003: Summer 2004: Barely beats Shadow the Hedgehog, gets 65-35'd by Mega Man when slaves to the X-Stats thought he would score something like 49%. Summer 2005: Beats King of All Cosmos, gets totally blown out by Kirby in a match the LOL x-stats had Tidus winning. Summer 2006: Gets 72-28'd by Squall. Many blame SFF. Summer 2007: Second place against Isaac, Pikachu and Serge, then a close last place against Pikachu, Leon Kennedy and Vivi. Summer 2008: Barely loses out on first place against Cube, DK and Tails, then finishes third against Cube, Mega Man and Nero. Only slaves to extrapolated standings think Tidus is worth anything, but those with common sense realize he's just the Final Fantasy series version of Shadow the Hedgehog or Master Chief. Always looks decent, always loses weird matches he should win easily, always gets overrated because NEXT YEAR WILL BE HIS YEAR. This guy has been in every major character contest and has never once gotten past the second round. People don't like Tidus, anti-vote him a lot and render him non-transitive or non-linear or whatever you want to call it. Shadow the Hedgehog is an especially ironic comparison, because the 2003 stats equally overrated them and the match went as planned anyway. It was hilarious. Which leads us to this year. There was no doubt Sub-Zero would do in this match what he did to Master Chief in 2006. Don't let the final percentage fool you, either. This was never close and is another match in a long line of bad performances by Tidus. Next year they should just set up (5)Tidus vs (12)Jecht and complete the embarrassment full circle. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3765&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=36) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Phoenix Wright vs (14)Jecht 2010 _source: (3)Phoenix Wright vs (14)Jecht 2010 (revid 59174)_ ## Results Wednesday, February 3rd, 2010 - **Division:** Varia Division - **Match \#:** 37 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, February 3rd, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 2,695 - **Oracle Expectations:** Jecht - 52.65% 73 for - 37 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Jecht - 45.40% ## Ulti's Analysis This was one of the most debated matches of round 1 pre-contest, and it was given a little extra oomph with Tidus losing to Sub-Zero in the match preceding it. It was possible we'd have a 24 hour period with father and son losing back to back. The reason this was so debated is because one, the match was very important -- in all likelihood it was a 3 point match because the winner was a near-lock to defeat Ratchet. Two, Jecht was a true untested wild card with strength presumably in Phoenix's range. Untested characters are very fun in today's era of stats and trend knowledge, because it's a good shot in the arm. The only debate here was whether or not you felt Jecht had the strength to beat Phoenix. That's it. Or maybe a better way to say it would be which among these two characters was weaker, because presumably neither of these two would light the world on fire. Phoenix is by far Board 8's favorite character, so every year he'll get nominated a lot and get good seeds. Whether he does anything with them or not is a different story, and you can make a case he's still a cult character. We all love him, but look at his contest history. This guy broke GFNW in 2006, needed massive rallying to hold off Bomberman in 2007, got extremely lucky with his first fourpack in 2008, and his game got totally worked over in 2009. If you set Jecht equal to Tidus, you get statistical values well above these performances (and frankly, Jecht is more popular than Tidus; that is a 1v1 match we need to see one day, and it could happen given Bacon's love of SFF). Even Sin's warped villain's contest value is better than most of this stuff. People knew all this. The main argument in Phoenix's favor was seeding (and thus, bracket votes) and it being a night match. Phoenix has pure joke trends and gets a lot of rallying, so the thought was he could hold off Jecht for 12 hours if he built a good lead early. When the poll began, it was clear Phoenix was done. He wasn't able to stay above even 52% after 5 minutes had passed, which is a death sentence against Square at night. Phoenix held on for a few more updates before completely collapsing, and Jecht pulled in around 55% of the vote overnight to seal the deal. It wasn't all that unexpected a result, but it was pretty disappointing to see Phoenix drop the ball so much in a winnable match. His biggest lead was 87 in a winnable match; he's done much better in matches where he had no chance at all. For Jecht, he proved he was legit and essentially earned a bye into the third round. Fun Fact: We lost the last perfect during Phoenix vs Jecht, which was none other than Dr_Football Factor'D himself. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3766&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=37) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (6)Ratchet vs (11)Eddie Riggs 2010 _source: (6)Ratchet vs (11)Eddie Riggs 2010 (revid 61193)_ ## Results Wednesday, February 3rd, 2010 - **Division:** Varia Division - **Match \#:** 38 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, February 3rd, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 22,625 - **Oracle Expectations:** Ratchet - 56.98% 100 for - 9 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Ratchet - 77.71% ## Ulti's Analysis Jack Black might have done better than this. Even in AntiBlowoutFAQs, this contest still had some laughably terrible performances. Eddie Riggs was one of them. Go here: There is not one single poll on there -- not ONE -- where Ratchet was anything but total crap. And before saying that 2007 PS3 poll is relevant, check out pre-Uncharted 2 Nathan Drake getting almost tripled by CATS: Until Eddie Riggs showed up, Ratchet was complete fodder. But once again, we're shown how most characters can look like gods in the right circumstance. Stick Ratchet against Guybrush Threepwood and he probably breaks 90%. Eddie Riggs is lucky this poll wasn't 70-30 or something, and it came close for awhile, but his big role here was finally getting Ratchet off the winless characters list. It took 7 long years, but he finally pulled through. As a total aside, Tim Schafer is one of the most overrated people out there. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3767&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=38) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (7)Travis Touchdown vs (10)Zelda 2010 _source: (7)Travis Touchdown vs (10)Zelda 2010 (revid 59176)_ ## Results Thursday, February 4th, 2010 - **Division:** Varia Division - **Match \#:** 39 - **Match Date:** Thursday, February 4th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 20,216 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda - 72.05% 109 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zelda - 89.04% ## Ulti's Analysis This was kind of a weird match. Zelda was expected to get something like 78% here based on 2008, underperformed by a bunch and it still barely mattered. Her path was set in stone: win 3 times, lose to Samus. You could probably blame No More Heroes 2's release for Travis doing so well here, and we'll see if he drops next year. The main thing here that was odd is Travis getting a 7 seed. A 7 seed, really? There's almost no way this guy survives a vote-in, yet he was somehow nominated enough to get a 7? I find this impossible to believe. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3760&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=20) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (2)Ezio Auditore da Firenze vs (15)Simon Belmont 2010 _source: (2)Ezio Auditore da Firenze vs (15)Simon Belmont 2010 (revid 59177)_ ## Results Thursday, February 4th, 2010 - **Division:** Varia Division - **Match \#:** 40 - **Match Date:** Thursday, February 4th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 13,692 - **Oracle Expectations:** Ezio - 63.94% 106 for - 3 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Ezio - 47.90% ## Ulti's Analysis Alucard's Plan once again came to fruition in this match. The poll was glitched at the start, and Simon Belmont led 8-2 for 15 minutes. Eventually things got underway proper, but Ezio failed to do as expected on Simon for quite awhile. Even after the misspelling in Ezio's name was corrected (it was "Ezio Auditore di Firenze" for awhile) and Ezio blasted off with the ASV to a near 60-40 win, it still wasn't enough. Simon Belmont is one of those characters whose never done anything in these contests dating back to 2002, yet Ezio failed to blow him out. Not only that, but he failed to even be the bracket favorite as a 2 seed against a character that's never won before. Has a 2 seed ever not been the bracket favorite before? This was a thoroughly terrible performance by Ezio, and it shut down all the stupid Ezio \> Zelda hype being thrown around. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3769&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=40) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Cloud Strife vs (16)Ridley 2010 _source: (1)Cloud Strife vs (16)Ridley 2010 (revid 59178)_ ## Results Friday, February 5th, 2010, 2010 - **Division:** Midgar Division - **Match \#:** 41 - **Match Date:** Friday, February 5th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 24,066 - **Oracle Expectations:** Cloud - 77.94% 106 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Cloud - 93.96% ## Ulti's Analysis For the first hour of this poll, Cloud looked like total crap. He floated around 65%, which seems good at a glance but isn't good at all in this case. For reference, Cloud got 70% on Bowser back in 2003. Now either Ridley got the most massive boost possible from Brawl, or Cloud has simply lost a step. Yes he ended up making the final, but in all his matches this contest he's shown signs of weakening. Back to Ridley for a second, there's only so much credit you can give him. He SUCKED in the villain's contest and is probably overrated in those stats thanks to Diablo's bandwagon run and Ganondorf's overperformance on Sephiroth. Sure Cloud got a terrible picture and Ridley's finally recognizable in his own pic, but still. Holding Cloud steady under 70% until the Total Domination Zone is really something else. Barring a Final Fantasy 7 remake, we're only a year or two away from Cloud and Sephiroth going the way of Crono. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3770&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=41) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (8)Chris Redfield vs (9)Captain MacMillan 2010 _source: (8)Chris Redfield vs (9)Captain MacMillan 2010 (revid 59179)_ ## Results Friday, February 5th, 2010 - **Division:** Midgar Division - **Match \#:** 42 - **Match Date:** Friday, February 5th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 22,705 - **Oracle Expectations:** Chris - 64.05% 107 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Chris - 72.07% ## Ulti's Analysis What's truly sad is that might be the best possible picture for MacMillan. Dude never gets out of his bush. This is a very cut-and-dry match. According to Leon's 2008 stats, MacMillan was expected to get 28% here. We saw Resident Evil 5 and Modern Warfare 2 get released since, but the expected percentages stayed about the same during the actual match. MacMillan probably did a tiny bit better than expected because of that terribad picture, but what can you do. This was the second of three straight matches with Call of Duty characters losing badly in the first round. So in a way, Call of Duty has something in common with Chrono Trigger. These guys looked AWFUL this contest. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3771&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=42) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Riku vs (12)Ramza Beoulve 2010 _source: (5)Riku vs (12)Ramza Beoulve 2010 (revid 59180)_ ## Results Saturday, February 6th, 2010 - **Division:** Midgar Division - **Match \#:** 43 - **Match Date:** Saturday, February 6th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 11,862 - **Oracle Expectations:** Riku - 62.73% 105 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Riku - 79.75% ## Ulti's Analysis Huge props to Heroic Mario for that Ramza pic. Making him look sharp is really tough. As for the actual match, it wasn't quite as easy a win for Riku as some people expected, but still easy enough. FFT has a really weird strength to it, plus this was a night match. KH is awful at night, while Square usually does very well. Even still, Riku looked fine in this match and gave no indicators at all of his impending upset in round 2. On a total side note, you people need to get Delita into one of these things. He's the one out doing all the dirty work and nailing hot princesses, while Ramza runs around trying to get his incest on while ignoring all of Ivalice's beautiful women. Explain to me how this makes any sense. Plus he runs around in those hideous buttpants. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3772&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=43) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (4)Captain Falcon vs (13)Wander 2010 _source: (4)Captain Falcon vs (13)Wander 2010 (revid 59181)_ ## Results Saturday, February 6th, 2010 - **Division:** Midgar Division - **Match \#:** 44 - **Match Date:** Saturday, February 6th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 27,908 - **Oracle Expectations:** Captain Falcon - 69.82% 107 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Captain Falcon - 53.09% ## Ulti's Analysis According to Bacon, Revolver Ocelot got the fewest nominations of the auto-bids. Yet Ocelot was seeded higher than Wander? We could have slapped this loser trash into a vote-in poll and kept him out of the field, but didn't? Wander is the main character of the single worst game ever made. No exemptions or mercy; get this garbage out of here. Actually on better thought, let Shadow of the Framerate trash in every contest. It's fun seeing how badly it embarrasses itself annually, plus it's fun seeing how people still try to defend that game. Yes, it was influential. Everyone wanted giant bosses after that game came out. It's also "influential" in the same way lack of waste disposal systems in Victorian-era cities were influential -- but you don't read books about fecal matter lining the streets being the best thing ever. On the contrary, fleas picked up the black plague from raw sewage, infected local rats and ended up killing off half of Europe. And that's what Shadow of the Framerate is: gaming's black plague. Go. The. Hell. Away. Watching Captain Falcon completely destroy this idiot was very pleasing. Some will say he moved on to bigger and better things this contest. I say nothing is bigger or better than crushing Shadow of the Overrated. If we ever got (7)Wander vs (10)Guybrush Threepwood, I just might drive off a bridge. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3773&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=44) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Leon Kennedy vs (14)Vault Boy 2010 _source: (3)Leon Kennedy vs (14)Vault Boy 2010 (revid 59182)_ ## Results Sunday, February 7th, 2010 - **Division:** Midgar Division - **Match \#:** 45 - **Match Date:** Sunday, February 7th, 2010, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 12,090 - **Oracle Expectations:** Leon - 67.55% 108 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Leon - 76.51% ## Ulti's Analysis Some people don't like joke characters in contests, and that's all well and good. Some people want contests to have all legit entrants. How Vault Boy got caught up in that argument is anyone's guess. He did way better than people expected in a match he was guaranteed to lose, and his reward for it were people crying in real life for 12 straight hours about him doing well. Huh? Vault Boy is the face of the Fallout series, is anything but a joke character and this poll proved he can be pretty legit in the right situation. People should be happy there's a new face to get in these, not acting all butthurt and crying like little girls. If Vault Boy saw that sort of thing, he'd kick your pregnant girlfriend in the stomach with a smile on his face. Grow up, children. That said, this was a weird performance by Leon. His path was set in stone, but Vault Boy \> Sackboy/Kratos was not something people expected pre-contest. He and RE4 are basically a different entity from within the RE series. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3774&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=45) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (6)Sackboy vs (11)Kratos Aurion 2010 _source: (6)Sackboy vs (11)Kratos Aurion 2010 (revid 59183)_ ## Results Sunday, February 7th, 2010 - **Division:** Midgar Division - **Match \#:** 46 - **Match Date:** Sunday, February 7th, 2010, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 6,525 - **Oracle Expectations:** Sackboy - 47.33% 32 for - 76 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Sackboy - 63.00% ## Ulti's Analysis Kratos Aurion was far and away the guru favorite here, yet it ended up being one of those matches where the casuals embarrassed the experts. Kratos was never in this match, and only did well when the Super Bowl was on. The trend graph for this is hilarious, because you see Sackboy doing well, then he drops off a lot during the Super Bowl before going back up again. It graphically shows the disconnect between casual and hardcore gamers. The stereotype is casual gamers are more likely to be normal, functional people into sports, girls and whatever else the popular guys like these days, while hardcore gamers are the otaku neckbeards who live in their mom's basement and live off their parents income until roughly the age of 30. Both sides of that coin can be rather dumb, but the point here is how it's right on a graph. The proof is right there: hardcore gamers don't like sports as much, and even the ones that do were probably watching the Super Bowl at home. Take from this what you will. There are two other major points about this match. One, it's clear LittleBigPlanet has suffered from always being in polls with Metal Gear Solid 4. It finally got the chance to be in a poll alone, and did really well. Secondly, it's time to stop nominating Tales of Symphonia characters. None of them have ever amounted to anything, and ironically the only one likely to have any strength is Kratos himself. So nominate Kratos until he wins. Everyone else can go away, especially those who keep popping in from other games in the series. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3775&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=46) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (7)Ryu vs (10)Balthier Bunansa 2010 _source: (7)Ryu vs (10)Balthier Bunansa 2010 (revid 59184)_ ## Results Monday, February 8th, 2010 - **Division:** Midgar Division - **Match \#:** 47 - **Match Date:** Monday, February 8th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 19,457 - **Oracle Expectations:** Ryu - 63.82% 107 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Ryu - 82.50% ## Ulti's Analysis The Midgar division was full of characters and games that really need to go away and stay out of contests. Balthier is another such culprit, even though he might be the one thing from that game worth putting in a positive light. Final Fantasy 12 is a terrible game and is completely indefensible. MMOs are not meant to be single player games. When you try to turn them into single player games, you get Final Fantasy 12. And not only that, but the game is SO REVOLUTIONARY that it plays itself. You can, and will, fall asleep playing it from not doing anything. There is next to no plot outside of "here’s a world map, where do we go next", the design is horribly generic and there are almost no good characters to speak of besides Balthier and Gabranth (for the 3 minutes he's on camera). Maybe Fran and Ashe if you enjoy seeing how far those cosplay freaks are willing to go (Ashe would be better if she didn't spent 95% of the game fretting over one choice and being a complete idiot about it the entire time), and \*maybe\* Basch would be decent if he had more screen time. Beyond that, no one. Not even Cid. We've seen the mad scientist act a million times from a million characters. Why Board 8 has a 200 post topic with the same 3 whackos arguing against these points (I like to call them "facts") every month is beyond me. The game is not good. The characters are not good. Stop pretending there's something good here when there isn't. In related news, Ryu was over 70% in this poll for awhile before the Square overnight vote hit. A hilarious match idea that came from this match and the Pokefad: (6)Kadabra vs (11)Balthier. What's sad is Balthier would probably lose that. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3776&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=47) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (2)Dante vs (15)Axel 2010 _source: (2)Dante vs (15)Axel 2010 (revid 59185)_ ## Results Monday, February 8th, 2010 - **Division:** Midgar Division - **Match \#:** 48 - **Match Date:** Monday, February 8th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 27,803 - **Oracle Expectations:** Dante - 64.27% 107 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Dante - 85.08% ## Ulti's Analysis The idea here was simple. Frog = Axel \> Balthier based on really easy 4way stats. You don't even need huge extrapolation there to figure this out, Frog was dead even with Axel in a match and Balthier sucked in comparison. If Dante equaled or bettered Ryu's percentage of 68.97% against a stronger character than Balthier -- a stronger character with a great day vote in a day match, to boot -- then the whole debate about the anticipated round 2 match could be laid to rest. Not only did Dante outdo Ryu's percentage, he did so easily. He was over 71% for awhile, and it took the insane Kingdom Hearts ASV just to get him down near 69%. For all intents and purposes, the Ryu/Dante argument should have ended right here. Really easy statistics and comparing their first round performances this year say Dante should have won that match with ease. And, well…. we all know what happened. More on that at the appropriate time. As for Axel, this is the match where people started to wonder what was up with Kingdom Hearts. All 4 characters had had their matches by this point, and none of them looked particularly good. Only one had a day match, Axel, and he looked awful before the ASV hit. We would learn later that yeah, something really was up with Kingdom Hearts this contest. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3777&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=48) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Solid Snake vs (16)Proto Man 2010 _source: (1)Solid Snake vs (16)Proto Man 2010 (revid 59186)_ ## Results Tuesday, February 9th, 2010 - **Division:** Gear Division - **Match \#:** 49 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, February 9th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 23,161 - **Oracle Expectations:** Solid Snake - 75.23% 102 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Solid Snake - 92.64% ## Ulti's Analysis Snake ended up making the tournament semifinal of this contest, but he had a strange path there. In his first three matches, he lost the board vote badly to Nintendo characters. Mega Man might be a Capcom series, but this contest more than proved the Nintendo overlap. Anyway Snake doing weird against Nintendo characters while being his Brawl-boosted self everywhere else proved his newfound Nintendo support collapses against other Nintendo characters. He finished ahead of Samus in this stats this contest, but would likely still lose to her because of this. Snake vs Mario wouldn't be debatable, either. Mario would win easily. We'll never fully know the answer to this until Snake is given a path against Nintendo instead of Final Fantasy 7, but the evidence is there. As for this particular match, Snake was held below 70% for awhile before rising overnight. Not much else to say. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3778&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=49) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (8)Lloyd Irving vs (9)Fox McCloud 2010 _source: (8)Lloyd Irving vs (9)Fox McCloud 2010 (revid 59187)_ ## Results Tuesday, February 9th, 2010 - **Division:** Gear Division - **Match \#:** 50 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, February 9th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 23,346 - **Oracle Expectations:** Fox - 63.18% 105 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Fox - 84.28% ## Ulti's Analysis Seriously, it's time to stop nominating Tales of Symphonia characters. Fox didn't have a 1v1 win in 7 years before this match, then Tales of Symphonia showed up and Fox scored an easy doubling. The match barely moved all day which made it fairly boring, but it's rare you see a lower seed with such a massive bracket advantage. The casuals learned long ago to never bank on Tales of Symphonia, and the characters aren't getting any younger. Time to stop getting them in altogether. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3779&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=50) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Pikachu vs (12)Banjo 2010 _source: (5)Pikachu vs (12)Banjo 2010 (revid 59188)_ ## Results Wednesday, February 10th, 2010 - **Division:** Gear Division - **Match \#:** 51 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, February 10th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 24,998 - **Oracle Expectations:** Pikachu - 70.30% 106 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Pikachu - 90.19% ## Ulti's Analysis This match was hilarious. Back in 2002, Pikachu almost lost to PaRappa the Rapper before getting completely annihilated by Cloud. A year later, he got annihilated by Fox. Pokemon was fully anti-voted, and it looked like the series would never amount to anything on this site. Fast forward 8 years, and it's come full circle. Now it's cool to like Pokemon again, and in contests they've gone totally berserk. The thought of Pikachu scoring an SFF blowout 8 years ago would have been laughable, but here it was. Banjo is weak, but getting tripled by Pikachu is something else. For all we know, Banjo could be the next Captain Falcon. He's never had a match against anything but Nintendo and always gets SFFd. Who knows if he has actual strength or not. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3780&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=51) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (4)Commander Shepard vs (13)Ellis 2010 _source: (4)Commander Shepard vs (13)Ellis 2010 (revid 68072)_ ## Results Wednesday, February 10th, 2010 - **Division:** Gear Division - **Match \#:** 52 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, February 10th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 34,065 - **Oracle Expectations:** Shepard - 61.04% 104 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Shepard - 71.76% ## Ulti's Analysis Left 4 Dead 2 coming out a little before this contest helped Ellis get nominations, but it's pretty clear he has no business in the contest field. He was also stuck going up against Commander Shepard less than 2 weeks after Mass Effect 2 was released, so it was clear Shepard would annihilate this poll. A tripling was perhaps unexpected, but regardless. Ellis making the field was kind of stupid, and it showed. Shepard also proved to be very legit this contest, even beyond this match. He's come a long way since almost getting doubled by a bag of sand in 2008. Well Magus also almost doubled him in that poll, but Shepard would probably beat Magus these days. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3781&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=52) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Auron vs (14)Aeris Gainsborough 2010 _source: (3)Auron vs (14)Aeris Gainsborough 2010 (revid 59190)_ ## Results Thursday, February 11th, 2010 - **Division:** Gear Division - **Match \#:** 53 - **Match Date:** Thursday, February 11th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 7,888 - **Oracle Expectations:** Auron - 60.86% 105 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Auron - 57.70% ## Ulti's Analysis "They're both dead." "My legs, I mean. I just went running. My left leg felt like it was dead before I even started, and my right leg felt like something stabbed it all the way through afterwards." -Weaku This match was all about setting up for the highly debated Auron vs Squall affair in round 3, but Aeris not making the field in 2008 sort of messed the expectations up. If you go back to 2007, Ngamer's LOL x-stats calculator has Auron getting 59% against Aeris. The 2007 stats are warped beyond belief, but upper 50s is a realistic expectation for Auron in this match. And Auron more or less did exactly as expected. This is fine if you're just looking to get wins, but Auron was looking to score an upset over an upward-trending Squall this year. As-expected doesn't really get it done, though we hadn't yet seen what Squall would do. The whole Auron/Squall debate comes down to whether or not Auron's upset over Sonic in the LOL 4ways was legit, but we now know the 4way results are practically dismissible. Not to mention, Squall probably does the same thing in Auron's position last year. By the way, it's still "Aeris" and always will be. Blame Japan for having a terrible language that makes no sense. "su" can have two identical meanings for whatever reason, but a better explanation can come from one of those Japanophile freaks. You know, the bad hygiene, no-friends people who cling to that I'M MOVING TO JAPAN SO KAWAII ANIME RULES I STUDY KANJI notion. Here's a great look into how terrible Japan really is: I have friends who actually made the mistake of moving there. Every single point in that article is 100% true. But hey JAPAN MAKES ANIME SO THEY MUST RULE. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3782&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=53) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (6)Zero vs (11)Marcus Fenix 2010 _source: (6)Zero vs (11)Marcus Fenix 2010 (revid 59191)_ ## Results Thursday, February 11th, 2010 - **Division:** Gear Division - **Match \#:** 54 - **Match Date:** Thursday, February 11th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 23,706 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zero - 62.82% 106 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zero - 60.25% ## Ulti's Analysis Zero is one of those characters whose been screwed over by bracket placement, SFF and the Mega Man series' stall for years in these things, but this was the contest where all of Mega Man returned to form. Zero was almost at the near-elite level back in the early Zeroes (history WILL call last decade the "Zeroes", by the way; "aughts" or whatever is just terrible), then got stuck being against Luigi and Nintendo 4way LFF several times. But this contest, Zero is back. Marcus Fenix is one of those beefcake casual-bait 360 characters who tends to fall off the map quickly following a big release, and this contest was no different. Fenix was never going to compete in this match, nor did he. The 360 ASV (which for some reason was diluted a lot this contest, and I don't think the 12 hour format had too much to do with it) almost got it below a doubling before Zero went back up afterward. It's a shame Zero's path was a predetermined second round exit, because he's always been a strong character stuck behind the 8-ball. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3783&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=54) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (7)Darth Revan vs (10)Terra Branford 2010 _source: (7)Darth Revan vs (10)Terra Branford 2010 (revid 59192)_ ## Results Friday, February 12th, 2010 - **Division:** Gear Division - **Match \#:** 55 - **Match Date:** Friday, February 12th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 3,965 - **Oracle Expectations:** Terra - 49.59% 43 for - 63 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Terra - 52.73% ## Ulti's Analysis Both guys who made pics here deserve a ton of credit. Photoshop hates light sabers like nothing else, and that is also an OUTSTANDING picture of Terra from RPGuy. One of my favorite overall round 1 pics this contest. This was one of those matches that was weird at the time, but makes great sense in hindsight. Because of how awful Terra has been in contests for so long, people jumped all over Darth Revan \> Terra. It made perfect sense, and without Dissidia it would have easily happened. Star Wars KOTOR made a great showing in the 2009 games contest, so the natural conclusion was Revan would do well. Add in a surefire good match pic for him, and this was supposed to be a slam dunk win for him. But Dissidia \*did\* happen, which threw a monkey wrench into the consensus. Dissidia didn't boost New Square (though a good case can be made for Jecht), but the effect on Old Square was paramount. Dissidia exposed Old Square to the New Square audience that maybe didn't give those older characters a chance, and it showed this contest. Cecil, Terra and Kefka all did well this contest, and Terra wasn't finished impressing once she was finished backhanding Revan. It seemed embarrassing for Revan at the time, but he ended up being about as strong as everyone thought. Terra just went far, far above everyone's expectations thanks to her newfound EX Dualcast strength. Dissidia is a weird case. The game is unequivocal garbage with one of the worst scripts ever written (and I hesitate to call that fanfic trash a "script"), yet it makes many of the characters look really good anyway. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3784&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=55) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (2)Squall Leonhart vs (15)Akuma 2010 _source: (2)Squall Leonhart vs (15)Akuma 2010 (revid 59193)_ ## Results Friday, February 12th, 2010 - **Division:** Gear Division - **Match \#:** 56 - **Match Date:** Friday, February 12th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 25,201 - **Oracle Expectations:** Squall - 67.53% 106 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Squall - 82.51% ## Ulti's Analysis Akuma is probably on the M. Bison/Vega level of strength in contests, yet rarely makes the field. And when he does, his seed is bad. Street Fighter fans need to learn how to focus nominations better. For what it's worth, Squall was expected to get 71% here based on the LOL 2007 x-stats. He ended up with 68% in a match that stayed almost exactly at 68-32 for 12 straight hours. Ergo, he "underperformed" by about the same amount relative to Auron, though this doesn't really factor in 2008 because Ngamer and ngirl have been too lazy to get those stats into the calculator. Too busy worrying about User of the Year e-cred! Anyway, this told us very little about the Squall/Auron match. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3785&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=56) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Sephiroth vs (16)Marth 2010 _source: (1)Sephiroth vs (16)Marth 2010 (revid 59194)_ ## Results Saturday, February 13th, 2010 - **Division:** Jenova Division - **Match \#:** 57 - **Match Date:** Saturday, February 13th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 23,860 - **Oracle Expectations:** Sephiroth - 71.77% 101 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Sephiroth - 93.87% ## Ulti's Analysis This match was pretty much Cloud vs Ridley, but with two lesser characters. Sephiroth started out with the standard terrible board vote, then rose overnight to almost the exact same percentage Cloud got. This is all well and good when comparing Sephiroth to Cloud, but the comparison to make here is between Sephiroth and Solid Snake. Proto Man is assuredly a stronger character than Marth, and Snake got a higher score on Proto Man than Seph got on Marth. Comparing these two 1/16 matches in the first round would be the only time we'd have a round with a fair comparison between the two characters. Sephiroth's path from here ended up being Vincent, Missingno, and Tifa. 2 SFF matches and a bandwagon are awful reads, although Seph would end up doing god-awful in all three. Basically, it was clear from the start Seph was in serious trouble. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3786&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=57) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (8)Vincent Valentine vs (9)Guybrush Threepwood 2010 _source: (8)Vincent Valentine vs (9)Guybrush Threepwood 2010 (revid 59195)_ ## Results Saturday, February 13th, 2010 - **Division:** Jenova Division - **Match \#:** 58 - **Match Date:** Saturday, February 13th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 36,635 - **Oracle Expectations:** Vincent - 76.19% 104 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Vincent - 87.80% ## Ulti's Analysis Who are the freaks who nominate Guybrush to good seeds every year? He's a complete waste of a contest slot \*every\* year and needs to go away. Permanently. When "AW YEAH GUYBRUSH WASN'T ON THE LOSING END OF THE CONTEST'S BIGGEST BLOWOUT HE DID 3% BETTER THAN EXPECTED" is your big angle, you know your character of choice is fodder trash. I mean really, this is what we've come to? People being happy when Guybrush holds someone under 80%? Get this garbage out of here. He's clearly never going to win. On second thought, let's have a (6)Guybrush Threepwood vs (11)CATS match. Loser is booted from the contests forever. This is realistic seeding too, since Europe is full of cracked out Monkey Island fans who think “Look behind you, a Three-Headed Monkey!” is the pinnacle of humor. A useless character getting anything above 16 seed every year must be the eighth wonder of the world. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3787&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=58) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Yoshi vs (12)Jak 2010 _source: (5)Yoshi vs (12)Jak 2010 (revid 59196)_ ## Results Sunday, February 14th, 2010 - **Division:** Jenova Division - **Match \#:** 59 - **Match Date:** Sunday, February 14th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 25,825 - **Oracle Expectations:** Yoshi - 68.99% 104 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Yoshi - 86.21% ## Ulti's Analysis Jak is one of those widely-known characters where most people have played his games and like him, but for whatever reason they don't vote for him. He's in that whole 3d platformer group of Crash/Ratchet/Jak/Dexter/Clank/etc where everyone likes him but there's no strength from the group whatsoever. Worse yet, the dude got stuck being paired against Yoshi in round 1. Ed Bellis picked this as his upset special on one of the contest podcasts, which is definitely a contender for the Ed Bellis Award for Excellence in the Field of Ed Bellis. For the rest of us, this was an easy gimme match. It was also a very boring match with no trending at all. Yoshi stayed at 76.6 for almost a full 12 hours. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3788&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=59) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (4)Crono vs (13)Missingno 2010 _source: (4)Crono vs (13)Missingno 2010 (revid 59197)_ ## Results Sunday, February 14th, 2010 - **Division:** Jenova Division - **Match \#:** 60 - **Match Date:** Sunday, February 14th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 527 - **Oracle Expectations:** Missingno - 39.05% 2 for - 104 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Missingno - 21.94% ## Ulti's Analysis This was more or less the highlight of the entire contest, not to mention its most important and hyped match. From the moment Missingno crushed its vote-in poll, people pointed to it as the next potential L-Block and got the bandwagon going. Then the bracket came out, and it got the worst possible draw ever: Crono, a Noble Niner in the first round. Even \*if\* Missingno got past Crono, he'd have Yoshi next, then Sephiroth in a night match. Had Missingno managed to get through all that, he probably would have won the entire contest. RockMFR actually banked on this and picked Missingno to win in his guru. Other people were equally intelligent about their Missingno picks. Palmer predicted Missingno's path perfectly -- that is, he picked Missingno to beat Crono and Yoshi, then lose to Sephiroth. Only 7.08% of people picked this path correctly, and of those lucky few won the contest because of this upset parlayed with Charizard winning the Heart division and Snake \> Sephiroth. But before all that, Missingno had to actually beat Crono. Even with Crono being the weakest member of the Noble Nine right now and getting stuck in a day match against a Pokemon, this was a very tall order. Even those few who picked Missingno knew it was a longshot at best, but no matter what this was bound to be a great match. The pre-match hype was completely ridiculous, and the arguing was hilarious. Oh man, the arguing. Ever since L-Block in 2007, there's been this huge groundswell of anti-joke vs pro-joke people. Both can be really annoying, and Missingno was unfortunately the big target of the backlash this year. It started when he crushed the vote-in, and you can imagine how bad it got once he started winning. There's nothing wrong with being anti-joke and wanting the polls to have as much credibility as possible (whatever this even means these days; for the record, the VERY FIRST MATCH EVER had a joke character in it so arguing "contest credibility" is moronic), but there is something wrong being unreasonably obnoxious about it. We get it. You don't think inanimate objects, jokes and glitches should get in because joke strength isn't legitimate strength for whatever reason. Basically, you have sand on your crotch and forgot how to have fun a long time ago. Stop ruining it for everyone else. As for the actual match, it was worthy of all the hype. There were 1175 votes in the first 5 minutes, and Crono led by a single vote after that first five minutes. It would be the only update all match where Crono led. After that update, Missingno went on a bandwagon-fueled steroid rampage. Within 2 hours, he had a 600 vote lead and the match more or less seemed over. The Pokemon ASV hadn't yet shown up -- even though the match was on a Sunday and the "ASV" was diluted, characters with good ASVs always trend up during the late afternoon for awhile. But in standard Crono fashion, he did the exact opposite of what we all expected and actually started coming back during the Pokemon ASV. But every time Crono made any headway at all, Missingno would slap it back down in a couple updates with the power of bandwagoned rallying. People were ready for this match for weeks in advance, and the match being on a Sunday was great news for the rallyers. The match continued like this for hours, with Crono making some gains and Missingno slapping them all away, until the evening. Around 7 EST or so, Crono finally started a comeback attempt that would stick. He was down 600 votes (and had been down by that much for about half the match), but finally started doing some damage. Over the next two hours, he made massive cuts on the lead and got it all the way down below 200. Missingno slapped that away and got it back up to 270 pretty quickly, but then Crono started coming back yet again afterwards and got the lead all the way down to 115. For the second time, the match seemed over. Crono's second night vote was about to start, and with his newfound momentum it looked like he would put away the glitch for good. But you don't mess with joke character bandwagon rallies. NO ONE, not even Crono with the SNV or Mario with "The Clutch", could beat a bandwagon rallied joke character in a close match. Missingno not only took Crono's SNV from him, but he did so without any mercy or pause. For the last couple hours of the poll, Missingno pulled in updates in the 53-55% range and removed all doubt from this match. People of course wanted Bacon to check for vote-stuffing in such a high-scoring close match involving a rallied joke, so extended the poll for 30 minutes due to technical difficulties. lol j/k The match ended at midnight as planned, and Missingno was declared the legitimate winner. He made another topic explaining all the attempted cheating ("attempted" being the key word here, since cheating is almost impossible on this site now) and where it came from. Crono fans attempted to cheat twice as much as Missingno fans, and Missingno won every single significant voting block: registered users, unregistered users, you name it. It was a legit, rallied win for Missingno. More importantly, it signified the end of the Noble Nine's 1v1 streak. In 1v1s, the Noble Nine was 124-0 against outsiders. Thanks to Missingno's upset, that streak finally ended. The only thing the NN has left where it's undefeated is 24-hour 1v1s, but they might never come back for a full contest. 12-hour polls are too fun. The aftermath was of course nuts with cheating accusations, people complaining how Missingno would become L-Block and all the rest. And for whatever reason, the resident Board 8 trolls (the number of which is unfortunately very high) latched onto anti-Noble Nine sentiment as their latest topic of interest. In every topic about the Noble Nine, the same 10 idiots would derail and talk about how the NN doesn't exist, how new characters should be added, how old-timers who invented the concept had no right to define it and whatever other dumb nonsense these people came up with. I didn't save the topic I made that day, but it went something like this: Title: "As someone who actually helped define the Noble Nine, be quiet." Body: "There's a massive amount of misinformation getting thrown around about the Noble Nine, so allow me to set the record straight for the ignorant. -'Noble Nine' was a term coined by Slowflake in the stats topic in 2003 as extrapolated standings became popular. We all liked Slow, so we all ended up using the term and it stuck. It was catchy, and more importantly it was accurate. We in the stats topic then helped flesh and define things. -The Noble Nine are nine characters who have made every main character contest since 2002, who until today did not lose to outside competition. Those characters are Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Samus, Mega Man, Solid Snake, Sonic the Hedgehog and Crono. The only character even up for debate here is Squall, but his loss to Vincent 1v1 puts that argument to rest. -Addendum to the "made every contest since 2002" point. There is no adding or removing anyone. Crono losing doesn't mean anything. You don't get to remove him, then add Missingno, Luigi, Bowser, Tifa, L-Block, Vincent or whoever else. It doesn't work that way. -Crono losing doesn't change who the Noble Nine is. There is no Super Seven, Terrific Ten or whatever else. The Noble Nine is still the same nine characters, they just don't have their winning streak anymore. That's it. It's not brain surgery. -Actually yes, those who were around to define the term get to make the rules. Thanks for asking. Random trolls whining in every topic is wholly irrelevant to the process. This was all decided SEVEN YEARS AGO. You're free to make whatever term you want, but it won't become contest nomenclature. All three B8 wiki admins, including myself, agree with my recount of events, have no issue deleting all the alternate pages people are making out of spite and have no issue with me banning you from making edits. If you think you'll get people to call it the Terrific Ten, best of luck to you. Stop whining. This is how it always will be: " The topic was stickied by Math Murderer within 5 minutes, so one could say even the GameFAQs staff agrees with the term's definition. The aftermath of this match died out over time once people remembered how the ignore button works (it's not like any of the anti-NN crybabies are worth listening to, anyway), and common sense and rationality won the day yet again. As a total side note, the Noble Nine page on the wiki became the most visited page after this match. I didn't know the term was so widespread, and there were a TON of topics from people no one had seen before talking about it. Very interesting stuff. As for the more relevant aftermath, Missingno parlayed this win into a very fun contest run, and might have won the thing outright with better bracket placement. Crono, then Yoshi, then Night Sephiroth was just impossible to get through. Crono however cemented Chrono Trigger's collapse. All three Crono Trigger characters lost in the first round of this contest, which is something that cannot be said of any other game from any other Noble Niner regarding any other contest. CT has fallen off the rails in recent years, and it's only going to get worse. Magus's collapse is well-known, Crono is hopping into that "don't ever trust me" boat along with him, and Frog has been slipping off the map rather subtly. This speaks nothing of CT getting punked by Mario 64 twice in the 2009 games contest. All in all, match of the year. Easily. ## Whoops! Crono encountered 'M, tried fighting it and lost all his save data. Better luck next year. ## Other Board 8 Reaction Crono lost in a very close match that went back and forth all day long. this was one of the highest voted matches of 2010, and due to missingno's impressive performance in the rest of the contest, Despite his round 1 loss Crono would end up looking better than most of his noble nine companions, being projected to get close to 47% against fellow Square powerhouse Sephiroth. Due to the Nature of this match, which did not run througout the whole day, many people question the validity of the "breaking" of the noble nine, as it also looked evident that Crono would have won in a standard 24 hour poll. ## Other Notes - Missingno. advancing was the **\#8** most surprising result of 2010 and the **\#1** most surprising result of Round 1 - It was also the **\#24** most surprising 1v1 result of all-time and the \#**4** most surprising Round 1 result of all-time ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3789&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=60) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Soap MacTavish vs (14)Big Daddy 2010 _source: (3)Soap MacTavish vs (14)Big Daddy 2010 (revid 59198)_ ## Results Monday, February 15th, 2010 - **Division:** Jenova Division - **Match \#:** 61 - **Match Date:** Monday, February 15th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 13,002 - **Oracle Expectations:** Big Daddy - 52.32% 79 for - 24 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Big Daddy - 51.25% ## Ulti's Analysis Following up the legendary Missingno \> Crono match is an impossible task, but Chrono Trigger wasn't the only game that looked like crap this contest. The whole Call of Duty crew looked HORRIBLE this contest, and all three were overseeded beyond belief. The kingpin for that point is Soap himself, who rode Modern Warfare 2's release all the way up to a 3 seed. Entirely because of his seeding, this was somewhat of a debated match but was still a "Who cares?" above all else. The gurus and even the casuals were not fooled, however. Big Daddy was the slight favorite from both demographics, if only because he did well in his vote-in despite Andrew Ryan sharing the poll as an albatross. That plus no one plays Call of Duty for the characters. A lot of people only get it for the multiplayer and couldn't care less what the story is about. But even with all that, Soap totally embarrassed himself and his series here. Letting Big Daddy 62-38 you as a 3 seed is a joke, and it makes Soap the worst 3 seed ever. At least Gordon Freeman managed 40% on Tina Armstrong in 2002. Ness \> Big Daddy was the guru consensus in round 2, but this match threw a wrench into that theory. At the very least, Big Daddy proved to have some strength. Given how weak Ness is, "some" strength is all you need to beat him. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3790&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=61) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (6)Ness vs (11)Geno 2010 _source: (6)Ness vs (11)Geno 2010 (revid 59199)_ ## Results Monday, February 15th, 2010 - **Division:** Jenova Division - **Match \#:** 62 - **Match Date:** Monday, February 15th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 19,897 - **Oracle Expectations:** Ness - 59.16% 101 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Ness - 71.50% ## Ulti's Analysis I love Geno to death. He's the best thing in SMRPG, and it's a crime he wasn't in Brawl. But this match officially put him in the "stop nominating this guy" category. Dude got SFFd by NESS of all people. Ness almost lost to Jak, only beat CJ because GameFAQs is afraid of black people, failed to place in the Liquid/Alucard/Ness/Zidane 4way despite the supposedly dedicated EarthBound fanbase (you think a midcarder Pokemon would have blown that chance?), and lost to Pac-Man of all people in 2008. Yet when you put Ness up against Geno, he manages to be on the good side of an SFF skull-bashing. This match reestablished Ness as the favorite in round 2 against Big Daddy, and more or less cemented Geno in the "I won't win unless I'm against Guybrush Threepwood in the first round" department. Get Geno out of here. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3791&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=62) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (7)Yuri Lowell vs (10)Tifa Lockheart 2010 _source: (7)Yuri Lowell vs (10)Tifa Lockheart 2010 (revid 59200)_ ## Results Tuesday, February 16th, 2010 - **Division:** Jenova Division - **Match \#:** 63 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, February 16th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 30,401 - **Oracle Expectations:** Tifa - 73.57% 103 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Tifa - 88.84% ## Ulti's Analysis A lot of matches have happened since 2005 that have proven we need to stop nominating Tales of characters, but this one might take the cake. How does Yuri Lowell get a 7 seed? That's almost as weird as Travis Touchdown's seeding. The blowout here was extremely predictable, and Tifa barely had to deal with the standard anti-FF7 early vote. She just rolled face with TJF SFF. I mean Yuri might be terrible in a contest, but at least she's pretty hot with looks that could even rival Tifa in…. …wait, that's a MAN?! /facedesk God dammit Japan, why are you so terrible. Drawing bishounens is one thing. Drawing a male character that quite literally looks female is pathetic, and so is every single person that enjoys this sort of thing. This is why we can't have nice things, and this is why Japanophiles are perpetually single. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3792&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=63) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (2)Gordon Freeman vs (15)Princess Peach 2010 _source: (2)Gordon Freeman vs (15)Princess Peach 2010 (revid 59201)_ ## Results Tuesday, February 16th, 2010 - **Division:** Jenova Division - **Match \#:** 64 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, February 16th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 5,059 - **Oracle Expectations:** Gordon - 56.87% 93 for - 9 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Gordon - 67.40% ## Ulti's Analysis Oh, Gordon. The last match in the first round tends to have weird things happen. In 2002, we had that ungodly terrible Crash/Ulala match. In the villains contest, who could forget Master Hand beating Kuja? Then a few months later in the main contest, Pac-Man beat Revolver Ocelot. Not to be outdone, Master Flop was the 2 seed in the last match of 2006's first round. He was paired against Sub-Zero, and we all know how that turned out. In the 2008 character battle (the second fourway), we saw Jill Valentine beat Revolver Ocelot one year after Ocelot beat her, AFTER Metal Gear Solid 4 was released. Fallout 3 \> Halo 3 happened in the 2009 games contest, but Halo flopping was massively expected by that point. But every single one of those matches would have stood in awe had Gordon Freeman managed to blow this match against Peach. And for 30 minutes when the poll was glitched out, he was in serious jeopardy of becoming one of the biggest jokes ever. Even his loss to Tina Armstrong in 2002 would have taken a back seat to this. Had Gordon Freeman -- a 2 seed with newfound Half-Life 2 strength who had just come off of winning Gamespot's own character contest -- lost to Peach, the world might have seriously ended. And for 30 minutes, Peach took advantage of a poll glitch and fought tooth and nail with him. Thankfully, the poll glitch was resolved and Gordon went on to win. The world was saved by him yet again, although one wonders how good a 53-47 win over Peach really is. Any hype for a Gordon \> Tifa upset or Steam rallying was dead and buried after this debacle. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3793&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=64) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Link vs (8)Alucard 2010 _source: (1)Link vs (8)Alucard 2010 (revid 59202)_ ## Results Wednesday, February 17th, 2010 - **Division:** Hyrule Division - **Match \#:** 65 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, February 17th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 26,139 - **Oracle Expectations:** Link - 71.71% 94 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Link - 90.89% ## Ulti's Analysis Only two things were notable about this match, and one was the match picture. For I believe the first time ever, a filter was put in front of a picture to give a more defined overall theme than "oh hi face shots now". The idea here was an actual picture frame, like what you'd see on a mantle. It was a decent idea, but the filter kinda wrecked a lot of pictures in round 2. The Sephiroth/Vincent match was the biggest example of this. The other point was the match itself. Link's odd performance against Thrall could be seen as first match hijinx, but twice in a row is more than an accident. As of this match, Link was officially dealing with anti-voting for perhaps the first time ever. People are just sick of him winning all the time, and what's funny is he started at 69%, got up to 73% really fast and then dropped all the way down to 71% overnight. One would assume he'd crush Alucard with the morning vote, but he didn't really do that. The anti-voting didn't affect Link winning this contest, but anti-voting can build up quickly over the course of a couple years. Just ask Cloud and Sephiroth. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3794&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=65) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Pokemon Trainer Red vs (13)Mega Man X 2010 _source: (5)Pokemon Trainer Red vs (13)Mega Man X 2010 (revid 59203)_ ## Results Wednesday, February 17th, 2010 - **Division:** Hyrule Division - **Match \#:** 66 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, February 17th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 17,352 - **Oracle Expectations:** Mega Man X - 60.52% 93 for - 3 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Mega Man X - 46.24% ## Ulti's Analysis I don't care what KP says, that Red pic is awesome. Looking more hard than X is not easy. Anyway, X winning this match was never going to be in question. How more than half of people didn't have X getting out of this fourpack is somewhat ridiculous, but then again casuals often bury their good picks with stuff like this. The thing to take from this match is Red being legit and Pokemon once again godstomping a board vote and ASV. Red and X were even for a couple minutes before X took off, and then Red went and rolled percentage during the ASV. The match was never in doubt or anything, but this was still a good performance from Red. He proved he was a legit, solid midcarder. When you think about it, Red smashed pre-contest expectations. No matter what anyone says, people don't play Pokemon for the trainers and there aren't legions of people with a massive emotional attachment to this guy. And if you go back to 2007-2008, all the characters who had nothing but Brawl (Pit, Dedede, etc) all sucked in the polls. Yet Red, on nothing but Brawl, Pokemon avatar-ism and Pokemon momentum, won a match and impressed against X. This was just Pokemon's contest. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3795&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=66) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Luigi vs (6)Amaterasu 2010 _source: (3)Luigi vs (6)Amaterasu 2010 (revid 59204)_ ## Results Thursday, February 18th, 2010 - **Division:** Hyrule Division - **Match \#:** 67 - **Match Date:** Thursday, February 18th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 9,990 - **Oracle Expectations:** Luigi - 62.91% 99 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Luigi - 65.26% ## Ulti's Analysis Every year, Amaterasu continues to impress. Breaking 40% on Luigi is no joke. Breaking 40% on Luigi after he totally rolls you with the board vote is worthy of some huge respect. Luigi was well over 60% at the freeze, then somehow lost the overnight vote badly and was unable to get back over 60% before match's end. Okami isn't a Nintendo game, but it has a sort of Nintendo appeal to it despite being on the PS2 first. Ammy gets the best of both worlds, too, and avoids ever getting SFFd because of tapping into the site's two big fanbases. She's very resilient, she's long since proven we need an Okami 2, and she even threw Shadow the Hedgehog a bone by doing so well in this match. Sonic Team was not looking good at all after round 1, but this was the match where people came around and thought maybe they didn't look so bad after all. Ammy just decided to sun god crush her first 1v1 appearance. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3796&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=67) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (7)Weighted Companion Cube vs (15)The Boss 2010 _source: (7)Weighted Companion Cube vs (15)The Boss 2010 (revid 59205)_ ## Results Thursday, February 18th, 2010 - **Division:** Hyrule Division - **Match \#:** 68 - **Match Date:** Thursday, February 18th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 5,666 - **Oracle Expectations:** Weighted Companion Cube - 60.61% 95 for - 4 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Weighted Companion Cube - 38.31% ## Ulti's Analysis After Cube's wtfpwn of Sandal in the first round, this match brought him (her?) back down to earth. The Boss is not a particularly strong character, especially during the day, but Cube did the whole easy-win-that-looks-bad-on-paper thing with her for 12 hours. The match stayed at about the same percentage all day long, which proved once again The Boss barely moves all day in her matches. This was practically a win by default for the Cube, and it proved there would be no bandwagon run for him (her?) this year. You don't go from a 54-46 win on The Boss to competing with Luigi, and in a way Ngamer was right about his "death of the joke character" podcast hypothesis. They didn’t do particularly well this contest outside Missingno; they just got extremely lucky placement, plus the bandwagon effect is much harder when you need 50% of the vote in a poll. Remember, L-Block's most impressive win was not necessarily the 2007 final. Before that contest became The Internet vs Everyone Else, L-Block was a normal character. When he shocked everyone and got first place against Snake, Sonic and Squall, he only needed 29% of the vote. In the final, he had 33.5%. 1v1s are a whole different animal. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3797&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=68) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Sonic the Hedgehog vs (9)Knuckles the Echidna 2010 _source: (1)Sonic the Hedgehog vs (9)Knuckles the Echidna 2010 (revid 59206)_ ## Results Friday, February 19th, 2010 - **Division:** Chaos Division - **Match \#:** 69 - **Match Date:** Friday, February 19th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 18,583 - **Oracle Expectations:** Sonic - 66.04% 97 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Sonic - 73.84% ## Ulti's Analysis You know how people always bring up those two favorite Mario character polls Yoshi won and say Yoshi could maybe pull a shocking upset? Take a good look at this match. This is pretty much exactly how Mario vs Yoshi would go, and those fan-favorite one-series poll winners are virtually meaningless. Knuckles won a similar poll once, too, albeit a very old one: Come match time, he was easily SFFd. He did however win the very early vote, which caused everyone to not want to refresh after voting. As an aside, people campaigned for weeks to get the Sonic 3 cover as the match pic here. Bacon couldn't really violate his template for one match, but he picked the next best thing. Major kudos to whoever Master_Mary is for an outstanding match pic. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3798&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=69) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Ganondorf vs (13)Ken Masters 2010 _source: (5)Ganondorf vs (13)Ken Masters 2010 (revid 59207)_ ## Results Friday, February 19th, 2010 - **Division:** Chaos Division - **Match \#:** 70 - **Match Date:** Friday, February 19th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 19,408 - **Oracle Expectations:** Ganondorf - 63.76% 97 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Ganondorf - 59.54% ## Ulti's Analysis On the final episode of The Show, Ngamer asked me to compare Bacon and Ceej in terms of running contests. One thing I forgot to mention is when Bacon decides to get cute and use a terrible match picture, he likes to keep it fair and balanced. Ceej was terrible about this; every time he did something even like Undertaker Snake vs Young Zelda, he would have 10 instances of Solid Shit versus Sprite Frog, Solid Shit versus Sprite Bowser, Lettuce Kefka vs Pac-Man or melty MGS art. Bacon deserves credit for making a real effort at keeping pictures even. As for the actual match, Ken got slapped back to reality following his first-ever contest win in the first round. He went through all this effort parrying Wesker's various warp-melee nonsense, but failed to properly telegraph something as simple as a Warlock Punch. All you have to do is dash backwards, Ken. Not hard. Random side note. People always ask me why I hate Street Fighter 4, and accuse me of only hating it because of Seth being too hard or something equally ridiculous. There's two major reasons. One is the complete lack of health compared to other traditional 2D fighting games I feel are better (BlazBlue, 3rd Strike, Guilty Gear), and the other are those idiotic charge-one-direction-for-two-seconds moves. It's impossible to play something fast-paced like BlazBlue and then go back to such moronic command inputs. Lastly there's the total lack of variety and side stuff. BB only has 12 characters, but it never really gets old because of the various drive moves. Bang's nails, Hakumen's god-stomping counters, the shield, the barrier bursting, the negative warning, the Heat meter and on and on and on. SF4 has.... a super meter and an EX meter. Yay? ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3799&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=70) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Kirby vs (6)GLaDOS 2010 _source: (3)Kirby vs (6)GLaDOS 2010 (revid 59208)_ ## Results Saturday, February 20th, 2010 - **Division:** Chaos Division - **Match \#:** 71 - **Match Date:** Saturday, February 20th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 17,906 - **Oracle Expectations:** Kirby - 65.87% 96 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Kirby - 61.21% ## Ulti's Analysis This was a rather predictable and boring match, but there's one funny thing to take from it. Based on 2008, Kirby was expected to get **76.69%** in this match. Needless to say, XFD 2008 Kirby. If you were banking on a Kirby \> Sonic upset this contest, this was pretty much the exact spot where that hope came crashing down. Kirby was clearly not in his bandwagon-inspired 2008 form. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3800&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=71) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (7)Vivi vs (2)Altair 2010 _source: (7)Vivi vs (2)Altair 2010 (revid 59209)_ ## Results Saturday, February 20th, 2010 - **Division:** Chaos Division - **Match \#:** 72 - **Match Date:** Saturday, February 20th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 8,627 - **Oracle Expectations:** Vivi - 50.16% 47 for - 51 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Vivi - 18.46% ## Ulti's Analysis First off, what a freaking outstanding match pic. We've been trying to get that Vivi in for years, and it finally happened. And on top of that, it gets matched against a total godslayer Altair pic that would put the fear of God into Lucifer himself. This is without a doubt the best picture of the first three rounds. The match itself, not so cool. Vivi doing almost exactly as expected against DK, contrasted with Altair's shivving the crap out of Liquid Snake made this match very debatable. Vivi hadn't really shown much in years, and Altair was seemingly a newfound monster of a character. Then the poll started, and Altair was just never in it. Vivi jumped out early, had a 1000 vote lead after 45 minutes and never looked back. Worse yet is Altair won a grand total of…. one update all match. 11 hours in, no less. He came into this looking really good, then just rolled over and died come game time. 56-44 might not look so bad on paper, but consider this: Altair lost so badly that the final 2010 extrapolated standings have GLaDOS \> Liquid Snake. Think about how ridiculous that result is for a second, then go look at how Altair and Liquid did in their losses. This is far beyond the point of being contest trolls. Altair and Liquid are now the official contest condyloma. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3801&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=72) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Mario vs (8)Big Boss 2010 _source: (1)Mario vs (8)Big Boss 2010 (revid 59210)_ ## Results Sunday, February 21st, 2010 - **Division:** Mushroom Division - **Match \#:** 73 - **Match Date:** Sunday, February 21st, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 15,061 - **Oracle Expectations:** Mario - 62.88% 97 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Mario - 85.56% ## Ulti's Analysis Of all the recurring rematches in these contests, Mario vs Big Boss is the worst. This even outdoes Snake vs Knuckles three years in a row. Squall vs Snake is also bad, but none of those four matches seemed intentionally set up. But Mario vs Big Boss has now happened FOUR TIMES in the past three character contests (thrice in 2007, to be fair). The results? 2007 Round 1: Mario 71.57%, Big Boss 28.43% 2007 Round 2: Mario 65.31%, Big Boss 34.69% 2007 Round 3: Mario 76.12%, Big Boss 23.88% 2010 Round 1: Mario 63.16%, Big Boss 36.84% Having Mario vs Big Boss 1 on 1 really only shows how stupid 4way stats are. 6% swing from rounds 1 to 2, then an 11% swing from rounds 2 to 3. If this same poll happens next year (REMATCH \#4 BABY), it won't move much. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3800&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=73) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Zidane Tribal vs (4)Ike 2010 _source: (5)Zidane Tribal vs (4)Ike 2010 (revid 59211)_ ## Results Sunday, February 21st, 2010 - **Division:** Mushroom Division - **Match \#:** 74 - **Match Date:** Sunday, February 21st, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 2,229 - **Oracle Expectations:** Ike - 50.87% 62 for - 36 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Ike - 35.57% ## Ulti's Analysis This contest was bound to have a match or two definitively decided by time of day, and this was perhaps the big offender. Zidane and Ike were clearly pretty close following their joint round 1 stinkbombs, but no one had faith in Zidane pulling the upset because of this being a day match. Sure enough, the match was a potential classic for 30 minutes, including Zidane winning an update by 46 votes. But before long, the day match trends kicked in and Ike was able to score a close, hard-fought win. It's a match winner we can definitely attribute to the format. Zidane flat-out dominates at night, and Ike does the same during the day. If this were a night match, you could safely assume the numbers are switched. The true fun is thinking about what happens if this were a 24 hour match, but we're likely not to see those for awhile. Ike followed up his first win ever with a tough round 2 win, while Zidane is still looking for his first-ever round 3 appearance. Maybe next year, we'll get a rematch at night to even things up here. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3803&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=74) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Mega Man vs (6)Zack Fair 2010 _source: (3)Mega Man vs (6)Zack Fair 2010 (revid 59212)_ ## Results Monday, February 22nd, 2010 - **Division:** Mushroom Division - **Match \#:** 75 - **Match Date:** Monday, February 22nd, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 12,219 - **Oracle Expectations:** Mega Man - 57.53% 97 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Mega Man - 62.45% ## Ulti's Analysis Most people thought Mega Man would do okay here; Oracle consensus was around 57-43. A respectable beating to be sure, but not a roflgodslayer performance. This match however was pretty close to the latter. Round 1 against Cid can be blamed on the pic, newfound 1v1 shenanigans or whatever else. But Mega Man followed that up with a similar unexpected overperformance against a very legit Zack. Dare we say... 2002 Mega Man is back in full force? Time will tell, but the Mega Man series looked very good this contest. Mega's unexpected bitch-slap of Zack was one such example why. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3804&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=75) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (7)Ryu Hayabusa vs (2)Master Chief 2010 _source: (7)Ryu Hayabusa vs (2)Master Chief 2010 (revid 59213)_ ## Results Monday, February 22nd, 2010 - **Division:** Mushroom Division - **Match \#:** 76 - **Match Date:** Monday, February 22nd, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 3,866 - **Oracle Expectations:** Ryu Hayabusa - 47.43% 24 for - 74 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Ryu Hayabusa - 15.87% ## Ulti's Analysis This match wasn't \*supposed\* to even be in question. Master Chief is far more important to the Xbox than Ninja Gaiden is, and who even remembers Ryu Hayabusa being the guy's name in the NES Ninja Gaiden series? Chief was supposed to score his first SFF beating ever. And then Ryu H went out and only got 62% on Crash Bandicoot, which supposedly further cemented his incoming beating. Even Chief repeating that terrible performance on Spy was dismissed by most, because 62% on Crash (including losing the morning vote) just sucks \*that\* much. Early on, Chief seemed fine. He always gets anti-voted early, but started off in the 55-60% rage for a couple minutes. No one would actually bracket-vote Master Chief since no one likes the guy anymore, so this seemed over. Then after about two minutes, the wheels came flying off and "Master Flop" was born. Not only did Ryu H come back and win, but did he so with ease. This was about as dominating a win one could earn with percentages as close as 52.5-47.5%. Chief rolled over and died after the first couple minutes, and the best thing is no one cared. No one likes Master Chief, everyone likes seeing him flop again and again in these contests, and it's all thanks to how annoying the Halo crowd was during the early Zeroes. Halo is not good, has never been good, and will never \*be\* good. People who think Halo is the best FPS series haven't played many games, and Master Chief gets the full backlash of this. For anyone who thinks anti-voting doesn't matter, go look at almost every single 1v1 Master Chief match. The only disheartening thing here is Chief winning the early vote because of bracket-voting. People can deny it all they want, but the proof is in the trends: Early voters always vote for their bracket, and in this particular case it's pathetic. It's MASTER CHIEF, king of getting anti-voted and the one character left who could lose the board vote to Sephiroth. You anti-vote this loser, no matter what. Funniest thing is Chief will get a debatable first round match next year against Kefka or something and everyone will pick him to lose. Ryu H \> Chief is one of those "won't get fooled again" type of losses. So of course Chief will win, for no reason other than "hurr hurr I love trolling". ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3805&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=76) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Sora vs (8)Laharl 2010 _source: (1)Sora vs (8)Laharl 2010 (revid 59214)_ ## Results Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010 - **Division:** Heart Division - **Match \#:** 77 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 16,688 - **Oracle Expectations:** Sora - 70.62% 96 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Sora - 78.97% ## Ulti's Analysis Going back a ways, but: Sora - 73.59% Laharl - 26.41% This is based on the 2004 stats. Remember in 2004, Sora upset Ryu Hayabusa before losing to Samus in round 3. He might be a little overrated in those stats because of Samus's so-called overperformance on Cloud. You could make a decent argument Samus overperformed on Cloud, who then overperformed on Link in the final. As for Laharl, lost to Vyse, who got rocked by Cloud in the very next match. No real arguments there. Now this was before Sora started curbstomping people with Kingdom Hearts ASVs and all the rest. There weren't 4 Kingdom Hearts characters in the field, only one. And that Sora, a weaker Sora than what would show up in future years, would be expected to nearly triple Laharl. If you want to argue Sora is overrated that year, then maybe you can say in 2010, Sora truly did as-expected based in 2004. Here's the point. People who picked Sora \> Bowser did so on the basis of Sora being the godslayer from 4ways. For whatever reason this contest, all of Kingdom Hearts reverted back to decently liked, but not beloved levels. 68% on Laharl as a 1 seed is penultimately embarrassing, and Bowser \> Sora was a stone cold lock upon this match going in the books. There was no possible way to argue in Sora's favor after such a terrible showing. Yes he got unlucky with all his matches being at night this year, but after his Laharl match you could easily argue Bowser would have beaten him during the day. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3806&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=77) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Kefka vs (4)Bowser 2010 _source: (5)Kefka vs (4)Bowser 2010 (revid 59215)_ ## Results Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010 - **Division:** Heart Division - **Match \#:** 78 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 18,027 - **Oracle Expectations:** Bowser - 62.05% 97 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Bowser - 53.68% ## Ulti's Analysis SMACKefka dab'd in the middle of enemy territory. Classic stuff. Anyway don't look too hard at the final percentage here. Old Square during the day likes to collapse. The fun during this match was the first hour, when Kefka was holding steady over 40%. Kefka has been labeled a choking loser for YEARS in these, but this year he finally got some good pictures and did well for himself. And he deserves a good contest, too. He's gotten screwed by his own picture for far too long. And Bowser's so-called bad performance here meant nothing. Sora had no chance. And do you know what this match means? Kefka - 52.02% Frog - 47.98% No one in the guru -- I repeat, NO ONE in the guru -- would have picked Kefka \> Frog this contest. Anyone who says otherwise is lying. Can you imagine how hilarious that result would have been? Two contest legends for totally opposite reasons, with KEFKA winning somehow? Screw GFNW; \*this\* would have imploded the universe. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3807&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=78) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)L-Block vs (6)Isaac 2010 _source: (3)L-Block vs (6)Isaac 2010 (revid 59216)_ ## Results Wednesday, February 24th, 2010 - **Division:** Heart Division - **Match \#:** 79 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, February 24th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 10,613 - **Oracle Expectations:** L-Block - 63.92% 96 for - 2 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** L-Block - 62.47% ## Ulti's Analysis Two match pictures were changed this contest. One was Ike getting an unofficial sprite in the sprite round (on an FE7 background, no less, which is a game he's not even in), and the other was L-Block going up against NotIsaac: Other than that, wholly boring match. It stayed at almost the exact same percentage for 12 hours, and it helped prove how lucky L-Block got with bracket placement this year. He's clearly weakened by a lot, but got a fourpack of HK-47, Isaac and Professor Layton. Stick L-Block in most other fourpacks, and he ain't winning it like he did this one. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3808&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=79) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (7)Charizard vs (2)Kratos 2010 _source: (7)Charizard vs (2)Kratos 2010 (revid 59217)_ ## Results Wednesday, February 24th, 2010 - **Division:** Heart Division - **Match \#:** 80 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, February 24th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 7,384 - **Oracle Expectations:** Charizard - 53.32% 76 for - 22 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Charizard - 18.62% ## Ulti's Analysis People were REALLY pumped for this match. Hype for an upset was huge after Charizard rocked Duke Nukem (and Kratos subsequently sucked hard against Tails), and everyone was ready to vote right at noon. This could have been the biggest board vote all contest, and come noon.......!! ...the poll glitched. Really, a poll glitch during one of the most important matches all contest? For 5-10 minutes or so, most people were looking at L-Block vs Isaac still. As a result, the first 5-10 minutes... pretty much sucked. But once things got sorted out, Charizard took off and never looked back. This was a heavily rallied match on both sides, but Kratos never got anything going and Charizard won fairly easily. Apparently the win over Duke \*was\* foreshadowing future success, and at this point who knew how far The Zard could go? Remember, his next match was against L-Block. That was a bye. Then in the Heart divisional final, Charizard would have Pokemon HG/SS released on the day of the match. If he won that, the bandwagon would undoubtedly be in full effect. Unfortunately, Mario and Link stood in the way. Stick him on the bottom half of this bracket, and who knows what happens. As for Kratos, he's really unlucky in 1v1s. He'll never have more hype than 2010, and who knows whether God of War 3 will wear off before next contest rolls around. ### Other Notes - Charizard advancing was the **\#7** most surprising result of 2010. - It was also the **\#21** most surprising 1v1 result of all-time. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3809&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=80) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Samus Aran vs (9)Jill Valentine 2010 _source: (1)Samus Aran vs (9)Jill Valentine 2010 (revid 59218)_ ## Results Thursday, February 25th, 2010 - **Division:** Varia Division - **Match \#:** 81 - **Match Date:** Thursday, February 25th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 18,173 - **Oracle Expectations:** Samus - 66.91% 88 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Samus - 80.53% ## Ulti's Analysis So much wasted potential with the pic for this match, which I had to make up for myself with Samus vs Zelda !! On top of that, Heroic Mario turned an awesome pic into making Jill look like a crackwhore. No clue how that happens. Now as for the match itself, the early parts of this were hilarious. Given the first round for each character, some thought Jill could do well with the board vote. Not only did she not do well, Samus just totally rocked face with it. It was embarrassing to watch, and Samus held steady at 70-30 for awhile. Screw Cloud; it looked like Samus could threaten LINK at that pace. Samus calmed down a whole lot overnight and during the morning, finishing at 67.5%, but still. 67.5% on RE5-boosted Jill is no joke, and given Cloud's awful round 1 performance the Samus \> Cloud upset was legitimately in play after this. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3810&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=81) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Roxas vs (13)Sub-Zero 2010 _source: (5)Roxas vs (13)Sub-Zero 2010 (revid 59219)_ ## Results Thursday, February 25th, 2010 - **Division:** Varia Division - **Match \#:** 82 - **Match Date:** Thursday, February 25th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 13,984 - **Oracle Expectations:** Sub-Zero - 58.56% 90 for - 2 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Sub-Zero - 30.84% ## Ulti's Analysis This contest had a few hard-to-see underdog runs that made it to round 3 and beyond, and Sub-Zero was one of them. A lot of people complained about this contest being too predictable one the final rounds came about, but look at the prediction percentages up to and including this match. The Zard, Vivi, and Ryu H all had really low percentages to get into round 3, and then you had a few people like Sub-Zero with only slightly better percentages. The odd thing here was how Tidus/Sub-Zero had such low percentages over a duo like Roxas and Heavy. Really, Roxas and Heavy were beating Tidus or Sub-Zero? Whatever. This was never going to be a close match, though one has to wonder how KP made Roxas -- freaking Roxas -- look more badass than Heavy and Sub-Zero. Someone build this guy a house or something. On top of that, Roxas got to shave off some percents during the vaunted Kingdom Hearts ASV. A 59-41 beating is still a beating, but take a close look at this match. This could very well be the one bright spot for Kingdom Hearts all contest. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3811&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=82) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (14)Jecht vs (6)Ratchet 2010 _source: (14)Jecht vs (6)Ratchet 2010 (revid 59220)_ ## Results Friday, February 26th, 2010 - **Division:** Varia Division - **Match \#:** 83 - **Match Date:** Friday, February 26th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 5,740 - **Oracle Expectations:** Jecht - 59.46% 91 for - 2 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Jecht - 26.63% ## Ulti's Analysis When Jecht upset Phoenix Wright in the first round, everyone knew he'd get bye in round 2 before losing to Zelda. What people didn't see coming was just how well Ratchet would do here. The consensus was a 60-40 win for Jecht, but when the poll started Jecht was stuck middling around the 55-45 range. And worse yet for Jecht, it stabilized like this for awhile. At night. Square characters don't do badly at night, lest of all against fodder trash like Ratchet who only got a win because he was against Eddie Riggs. You know, even bigger fodder trash. Jecht went on a rampage overnight, but then the morning vote hit and he lost all the percentage he accumulated. So at the end, he was more or less back where he started. It was bad for Jecht to be sure, but it was one of the weirdest performances ever from a losing character. We can't really blame Jecht's potential weakness, either, because he went on to pull a similar snafu against Zelda. The blame here, if you can call it that, goes on Ratchet finally pulling his head out of his ass and getting it together a little. He gets a new game every year, and funny commercials every year, but for some reason this was the year it did something for him. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3812&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=83) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (10)Zelda vs (2)Ezio Auditore da Firenze 2010 _source: (10)Zelda vs (2)Ezio Auditore da Firenze 2010 (revid 59221)_ ## Results Friday, February 26th, 2010 - **Division:** Varia Division - **Match \#:** 84 - **Match Date:** Friday, February 26th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 18,600 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda - 64.05% 92 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zelda - 61.04% ## Ulti's Analysis For whatever ridiculous reason, this match had upset hype behind it. That hype thankfully, mercifully ended about 2 seconds after the match began. Zelda started off with a doubling and fell to under 65% at the freeze. And to be fair, Ezio rolling with the ASV and cutting off another 2% was pretty impressive. But... seriously, Ezio \> Zelda hype? I should have gone through with that account bet against Curt just to off him for championing a cause so off-the-wall. But I actually like Curt, so seeing him go for something this bad wouldn't have been right. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3813&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=84) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Cloud Strife vs (8)Chris Redfield 2010 _source: (1)Cloud Strife vs (8)Chris Redfield 2010 (revid 59222)_ ## Results Saturday, February 27th, 2010 - **Division:** Midgar Division - **Match \#:** 85 - **Match Date:** Saturday, February 27th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 24,875 - **Oracle Expectations:** Cloud - 68.76% 92 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Cloud - 89.44% ## Ulti's Analysis So Cloud was looking like crap after that Ridley embarrassment, and Chris was looking like a beefed up RE5-boosted roid rage dude. The stage was set for Chris to have a pretty good performance. So what does he do? He barely wins the board vote, and then he gets plowed from behind for 12 hours and finishes lower than Ridley. Think about this for a sec. Either Ridley is on more steroids than Chris Redfield and could beat an RE5-boosted Chris, or there was some weird FF7 \> RE SFF action going on here. The latter seems more likely, but who really knows with how this contest went. For all we know, Ridley really could go out and beat Chris Redfield. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3814&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=85) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Riku vs (4)Captain Falcon 2010 _source: (5)Riku vs (4)Captain Falcon 2010 (revid 59223)_ ## Results Saturday, February 27th, 2010 - **Division:** Midgar Division - **Match \#:** 86 - **Match Date:** Saturday, February 27th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 3,438 - **Oracle Expectations:** Captain Falcon - 47.12% 14 for - 79 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Captain Falcon - 46.68% ## Ulti's Analysis For 4 years, Captain Falcon's fans have been saying he'd do well if given a fair chance. And it really did take 4 years for him to get that chance. He got stuck as an 8 seed against Crono in 2006, then had to deal with ridiculous Nintendo LFF in both fourways. But in Winter 2010, there was no Nintendo in the way of Falcon making a good run and having a good contest. There was, however, one huge problem: a Kingdom Hearts character of presumably similar strength in a day match. HOWEVER, it was a day match on a weekend with a vastly diluted day vote. Falcon made the most of this, and took off with the lead after easily winning the board vote. Riku was the favorite and the smart pick, and deservedly so because of this being a KH character during the day, but Falcon just totally punked him in this match. Riku never got his feet under him and looked pretty bad for getting 47.5%. Even the vaunted KH day vote did little for him, making it reasonable to think an ASV wouldn't have mattered here. He won very few updates all match, and updates he did win were scarce. Falcon win this convincingly, leaving no doubt at all about his legitimacy. With Riku's loss, that left only Sora representing Kingdom Hearts. And that wouldn't go so well, either. KH just looked terrible all contest. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3815&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=86) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Leon Kennedy vs (6)Sackboy 2010 _source: (3)Leon Kennedy vs (6)Sackboy 2010 (revid 59224)_ ## Results Sunday, February 28th, 2010 - **Division:** Midgar Division - **Match \#:** 87 - **Match Date:** Sunday, February 28th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 15,149 - **Oracle Expectations:** Leon - 63.38% 94 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Leon - 56.78% ## Ulti's Analysis Regardless who won the Sackboy/Kratos Aurion duel, the winner wasn't getting anywhere close to beating Leon Kennedy. The caveat here was Sackboy doing worse against Leon than Vault Boy did. How many people would have honestly picked Vault Boy \> Sackboy this contest? The other point here is Leon seemed a little off through the first two rounds, which killed any and all upset hype against the Ryu/Dante winner. A few thought maybe Leon would sneak through there, but not after tripping a bit in the first two rounds. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3816&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=87) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (7)Ryu vs (2)Dante 2010 _source: (7)Ryu vs (2)Dante 2010 (revid 79218)_ ## Results Sunday, February 28th, 2010 - **Division:** Midgar Division - **Match \#:** 88 - **Match Date:** Sunday, February 28th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 531 - **Oracle Expectations:** Ryu - 48.74% 36 for - 59 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Ryu - 37.61% ## Ulti's Analysis The USA went into the gold medal game on a huge high, having come off of completely godstomping Finland or Sweden or whatever other inferior hockey team they wrecked in the semifinal. Doesn't matter who. America rolled them. Earlier in the tournament, they had also defeated Canada 5-3 thanks to a Herculean effort from goalie Ryan Miller. Canada almost went on strike following that loss, but they managed to regroup in time. They too rolled through elimination play, setting up a huge gold medal game against the United States with revenge on the mind. As an added bonus, they would have legions of screaming fans on the home ice behind them. Canada came out flying in this game, setting the tone for what would be a very fast, well-played contest. For a hockey player, it was the perfect game to be a part of. Very fast, good hitting, very few penalties and a lot of excitement and honor to play for. But for the first period and half the second, Canada played with a massive sense of urgency and it showed on the scoreboard by a tally of 2-0. The USA, however, was having none of it and refused to crack under Canada's pressure. Midway through the second period, the Americans scored on a lucky deflection by Ryan Kesler to make it 2-1. At this juncture, the intensity and pressure mounted ever higher into the third period. Though the Americans were game, Canada seemed one step ahead through the entire third period and came close to putting the game away time and time again. Shea Weber and Chris Pronger both hit the goal post on successive shifts, and Sidney Crosby blew a golden breakaway chance late in the period. With the score still 2-1 late in the third, America was forced to pull the goalie and attempt a late 6 on 5 goal. With less than 30 seconds left in the game, America seemingly pulled off another Miracle on Ice. Patrick Kane flung a shot on net, and it deflected perfectly to Zach Parise. Boom, tie game. Canada was shocked, but not panicked, America had forced overtime when they had outplayed America most of the game, and most spectators feared the contest was over once Parise scored. America went on record thinking they would definitely score in overtime. However, America was outplayed in overtime even more than regulation. They only threatened once in the entire overtime, and Robero Luongo easily made the save. Canada meanwhile flew all over the place, played some wicked defense and kept up huge pressure on American goalie Ryan Miller. Not too long after Joe Pavelski's miss, Sidney Crosby found himself loose in the corner of American ice. He made a fabulous pass, beelined for the net, received the assist and banged the puck home to give Canada the overtime win. It was an outstanding game by both teams, truly worthy of worldwide respect, but only one side had Crosby on it. For Canada, they pulled though in perhaps the biggest situation they'll ever have athletically. Hockey is Canada's sport, and with the Olympics in Vancouver they HAD to win gold. Anything less would have driven the country into a depression. America was stung by the loss, by they can hold their heads high knowing they got father than anyone expected them to go. Worldwide opinion of America is very mixed right now, but efforts like this show the honorable blue-collar resilience and toughness that got America so much respect in the first place. Maybe in four years, we'll see a rematch. ## Stats and analysis Ryu and Dante's 2010 match inspired the term Hockey Factor, since it was going on during the men's hockey gold medal game of the 2010 Winter Olympics. In this match, there was an observable trend in which the progress of the match reflected the status of the game: Dante increased his lead while the game was going on, and Ryu made cuts during the intermissions and went on a steady run after the conclusion of the game to eventually take the match, which ended up looking closer than it actually was. The reason for this occurence was that North America prefered Ryu while places like Europe and Asia heavily favoured Dante. While the hockey game was on North America was occupied thus giving Dante a boost due to Europe and Asia having a higher percentage of the votes. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3817&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=88) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Solid Snake vs (9)Fox McCloud 2010 _source: (1)Solid Snake vs (9)Fox McCloud 2010 (revid 72670)_ ## Results Monday, March 1st, 2010 - **Division:** Gear Division - **Match \#:** 89 - **Match Date:** Monday, March 1st, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 17,132 - **Oracle Expectations:** Solid Snake - 67.27% 81 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Solid Snake - 83.92% ## Ulti's Analysis When did Solid Snake turn into Cloud? This was the second match in a row where his board vote just sucked, but then he shrugged it off and rose to a good percentage. Well, decent percentage. Who really knows what doubling Fox means, since all his losses going back to 2003 can be blamed on Nintendo SFF in one way or another. His last legit loss before this one was getting 25% on Cloud in 2002. So clearly Snake was on pace to get like 40% on Sephiroth, since the 2002 stats are the most reliable thing ever. On a side note, there were 7 rounds this contest. Solid Snake was in 6 of them. Of those 6, two did not have Brawl Snake in the picture. Seriously people, he's been in other games. And my R6 picture barely even counts, so you can make a good argument Brawl Snake disappeared once all contest. It's almost like people are overcompensating for his years of awful melty art and sprites. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3818&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=89) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Pikachu vs (4)Commander Shepard 2010 _source: (5)Pikachu vs (4)Commander Shepard 2010 (revid 61348)_ ## Results Monday, March 1st, 2010 - **Division:** Gear Division - **Match \#:** 90 - **Match Date:** Monday, March 1st, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 17,784 - **Oracle Expectations:** Pikachu - 63.13% 88 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Pikachu - 72.55% ## Ulti's Analysis Let's go back in time a bit. Remember this match? People remember it for Magus blowing a 2150 vote lead, in a 4way, to a Home Run Contest punching bag (literally). That was bad to be sure, but Shaepard was also in that poll on the strength of Mass Effect alone. He got nearly doubled by Magus and that same Sandbag. You know who else has been doubled by Magus? Luca Blight and Sam Fisher. Enough said. Back to present day. During the AFC Championship Game, Mass Effect 2 had a two-minute commercial that cost a ton of money. After that, you couldn't watch TV for more than 10 minutes without seeing a Mass Effect 2 commercial. The hype was completely nuts. Why is this all relevant? Mass Effect 2's release day was January 26th, 2010. This match took place on March 1st. That's a full month for hype to settle in, and for a ton of people to buy, love and even beat the game. Sales were off the charts, critical acclaim more so, and the game is basically universally loved. Unless you're MWIS, but he doesn't count. If he doesn't like something, you can bet it's probably something really good. So the match starts. There was mild hype for Shepard pulling an upset here, but most reasonable people knew this would never be in doubt. Nor was it. Pokemon doing well a day match in the Winter 2010 Contest was as sure a bet as the sun rising in the east. That said, Pikachu didn't go out and crush the guy. The percentages stayed almost the same all day, which meant no insane trends or Pokemon ASVs. It was a good win for Pikachu, considering this was his first non-SFF 1v1 win since 2002. But for Shepard, you have to tip your hat to the guy. Thanks to one game, he went from getting doubled by Magus to making Pikachu struggle to break 60%. There was an insane amount of whining over this result that blinded people from how well Shepard did here, but people will eventually look back on this match and see how well he really did. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3819&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=90) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Auron vs (6)Zero 2010 _source: (3)Auron vs (6)Zero 2010 (revid 59228)_ ## Results Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010 - **Division:** Gear Division - **Match \#:** 91 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 6,649 - **Oracle Expectations:** Auron - 57.44% 86 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Auron - 40.41% ## Ulti's Analysis This match pic was rated the highest from the first three rounds. It's a great pic to be sure, but for my money it's \#2 behind Vivi vs Altair. For about 5 minutes, this was a great match. Zero kept it close for no real reason, but obviously fell off the pace afterwards. Auron got this match at night, and Square at night is a no-brainer. Two problems for Auron. One, these percentages probably would have been a lot closer during a day match. And most importantly, this is pretty much exactly what Auron was supposed to do. "What Auron was supposed to do" wasn't going to cut it for his upset chances against Squall next round. Zero having a good match here is also notable, because it proved he never really fell beyond the level of being one step below the near-elites. He's just been stuck behind Nintendo SFF for years now, and this match here proves it. Anyone still arguing Zero wasn't massively hurt by DDD and Pit sharing that 2008 first round match with him need to stop smoking whatever it is they're on. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3820&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=91) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (10)Terra Branford vs (2)Squall Leonhart 2010 _source: (10)Terra Branford vs (2)Squall Leonhart 2010 (revid 59229)_ ## Results Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010 - **Division:** Gear Division - **Match \#:** 92 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 20,505 - **Oracle Expectations:** Squall - 69.89% 89 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Squall - 66.95% ## Ulti's Analysis Maybe Squall \> Auron wasn't a lock, after all. Never before has a near-doubling looked so terrible. Dissidia Boost or not, this is the same chick who got 28.5% on Dante in 2005. The same character who failed to break 60% on Kerrigan (you know, of "LET'S HYPE KERRIGAN \> VINCENT AND WATCH KERRIGAN SCORE 21%" fame?) in 2006 before getting 80-20'd by Zelda. Furthermore, this was Squall. Had Sonic not been announced for Brawl, Squall would have beaten him in fourways twice. The same guy who beat Luigi, almost beat Vincent, and most importantly, the same guy who SFFd Tidus into the ground in 2006. He's wrecked lesser Final Fantasy characters before. Yet here we are, in 2010, and Squall fails to even double Terra. He was actually barely above 60% in this poll before a time, before um.... "saving face" overnight and getting his percentage up a bit. It's not like there was some huge pic disparity, either. Terra looks god-awful there. Do you realize if you take this match literally, Terra scores 60.5% on Tidus? ...wait a sec (7)Tidus vs (10)Terra Branford, let's do this. Tidus could probably find a way to pull off that choke job. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3821&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=92) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Sephiroth vs (8)Vincent Valentine 2010 _source: (1)Sephiroth vs (8)Vincent Valentine 2010 (revid 59230)_ ## Results Wednesday, March 3rd, 2010 - **Division:** Jenova Division - **Match \#:** 93 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, March 3rd, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 12,396 - **Oracle Expectations:** Sephiroth - 68.37% 89 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Sephiroth - 88.55% ## Ulti's Analysis Shut up, Vincent's picture is awesome. A lot of people expected Sephiroth to completely SFF Vincent into the ground here, and only HOCHI, CONTEST GOD and Leonhart4 were smart enough to hype Sephy not breaking 70% or so. Which is fine, but almost no one in their right mind expected Sephiroth to struggle to break 60%. This isn't Sephiroth's failure to SFF Final Fantasy 7 or even Square characters, either. He's done it in the past, quite often, with great results: 2920, the 4way with Sephiroth, Mario, Link and Vincent is especially noteworthy. Yes Vincent was Last Place Factor'd, but saying Vincent wouldn't have done much better without another FF7 character in that poll is ridiculous. Regardless, Vincent scored 24% on Sephiroth in that poll. Auron and Tifa have had similar "I'd do way better if there wasn't a Sephy in the way" moments. Now Vincent legitimately holds Sephy at 60% for awhile (before Sephiroth pulls away for a MASSIVE AND CONVINCING 62.66% win) and suddenly Seph can't SFF other FF7 characters? Not buying it. This goes far beyond SFF or rSFF or whatever else. This is simply, and very effectively, massive anti-voting. Final Fantasy 7, Cloud and Sephiroth have all entered Master Chief territory. It used to be FF7 would get anti-voted early in a cute way before the godstomp. It's not like that anymore. The anti-votes are so massive that they're a part of FF7's growing weakness. Once you're in Master Chief territory, there's no leaving it. FF7 is still very strong, but it's getting weaker and weaker every year. If anything, 4ways hid this fact. If we get another game contest, FF7 could underperform expectations by a lot. As a more immediate effect, this was Sephiroth growing old right before our eyes. He's done. And what's sad is this wasn't close to how bad it would get regarding Sephy failing to do well against FF7 characters -- also, you can imagine how nuts the Missingno \> Sephiroth hype got after this debacle. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3822&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=93) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Yoshi vs (13)Missingno 2010 _source: (5)Yoshi vs (13)Missingno 2010 (revid 59231)_ ## Results Wednesday, March 3rd, 2010 - **Division:** Jenova Division - **Match \#:** 94 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, March 3rd, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 2,348 - **Oracle Expectations:** Missingno - 52.28% 68 for - 22 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Missingno - 14.06% ## Ulti's Analysis After Missingno upset Crono, people assumed he would roll through Yoshi before taking some massive 2000 vote lead on Sephiroth with the early bandwagon vote. Wait, really? Even if Missingno won against Yoshi (which was no guarantee), there was no possible way it would have been some blowout. Yoshi has proven twice he's the fan favorite of the Mario series: Hold that same poll tomorrow and you probably get the same result a third time. People love Yoshi, and rallying against him would be extremely difficult for Missingno to pull off. Mario in general is the ultimate anti-joke kryptonite. If you swap Missingno and Prinny in this bracket, no one would question a potential third-round match between Mario and Missingno. The hype here came from Missingno being in a division full of characters easy to rally against. The one roadblock really to hard rallying in this division was Yoshi, for reasons already stated. When the poll began, this was proven tenfold. Yoshi took a small early lead, which almost never happens against a true bandwagoned, rallied joke. He then held that lead for more than two hours, and it never got bigger than 200 votes. If Missingno truly was the next L-Block, no character would hold a small lead for very long on him. There would have been deathblow "You come into OUR HOUSE, you get yo' behind KICKED" rallying all over the internet. Everyone knows what happened next. After getting the lead down to 55 votes, Missingno fired off six killshots in a row aided by rallying and the Pokemon ASV. The 6 Missingno update wins following 2:40 p.m. EST: 79 votes to take the lead, then 56, 123, 63, 70, and 65. Ballgame. Missingno slowed down a lot after this, but caught the full weight of the Pokemon ASV and put the match away for good. Contrary to popular belief, Missingno didn't catch some joke rally to win this match. He won for one major reason a lot of anti-Pokemon and anti-joke people refuse to accept for whatever reason: Legitimate strength. Past maybe Missingno taking the lead, the chart here is very consistent and even. You know, the exact opposite of a joke trend. Missingno is legit and Pokemon is awesome. Deal with it, haters. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3823&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=94) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (14)Big Daddy vs (6)Ness 2010 _source: (14)Big Daddy vs (6)Ness 2010 (revid 59233)_ ## Results Thursday, March 4th, 2010 - **Division:** Jenova Division - **Match \#:** 95 - **Match Date:** Thursday, March 4th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 4,141 - **Oracle Expectations:** Big Daddy - 48.85% 32 for - 58 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Big Daddy - 27.52% ## Ulti's Analysis yoblazer mentioned this in the stats topic several times, and it's worth repeating. This may be the biggest contrast in a match picture we ever see. On one side, you have Big Daddy in perfect freak-you-out mode. The guy just feels like something you'd never want to see on the other side of a door at night. And on the other side is Ness, one of the happiest world-saving heroes ever. Most silent protagonists are brooding loners or swordsman or something. Not Ness. Everyone in EarthBound speaks of him as a kid who always wears a smile and helps everyone out. Put them together and you get one of the weirdest close matches ever. Ness was the guru favorite, but few people had YEAH NESS WILL WIN THIS FOURPACK NO PROBLEM confidence in the guy, especially given how Daddy's vote-in went and how the first round played out. An SFF beating over Geno means nothing. Sure enough, Ness did very little early on in the match, even with bracket votes and the Nintendo Power Hour. His lead peaked at 100 15 minutes in, then Daddy decided enough was enough and drilled the brat right in the face. No messing around. Just one punch, right in the face. Took awhile for him to put Ness away for good after that, but in an hour or so Ness gave up the ghost. The final numbers aren't really indicative of how close this was early, but that happens a lot in these. Before this contest, we'd never seen a 14 seed win twice. With Big Daddy and Jecht both winning in round 2, we had two 14 seeds win twice. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3824&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=95) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (10)Tifa Lockheart vs (2)Gordon Freeman 2010 _source: (10)Tifa Lockheart vs (2)Gordon Freeman 2010 (revid 59232)_ ## Results Thursday, March 4th, 2010 - **Division:** Jenova Division - **Match \#:** 96 - **Match Date:** Thursday, March 4th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 18,539 - **Oracle Expectations:** Tifa - 60.22% 85 for - 5 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Tifa - 40.95% ## Ulti's Analysis Not only does Gordon Freeman look like House, Kingdom Hearts Tifa looks a lot like Stacy Warner (House's ex wife, who got a lot of screen time in season 2). Beyond that, very predictable match to end the second round on. All hype for an upset ended when Gordon Freeman almost lost to Peach. To not even break 40% in your loss is pretty embarrassing, especially on the heels of winning Gamespot's own character contest. In fairness, Tifa was at 63% for awhile before Gordon rocked her percentage a bit. As bad as Gordon Freeman is in these -- and it stopped being a cute fad once he finally won, these days he just sucks in polls and little else -- only two characters have ever broken 60% on him 1 on 1: Sora and Tifa. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3825&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=96) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Link vs (13)Mega Man X 2010 _source: (1)Link vs (13)Mega Man X 2010 (revid 59236)_ ## Results Friday, March 5th, 2010 - **Round:** Hyrule Division Semifinal - **Match \#:** 97 - **Match Date:** Friday, March 5th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 18,899 - **Oracle Expectations:** Link - 67.82% 82 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Link - 83.53% ## Ulti's Analysis For the second round in a row, we had an odd pic template with a filter in front of the characters. This time, the idea was TV static. IT'S KANE'S REVENGE EVERYONE RUN FOR YOUR LIVES! Also pretty funny is how Link can get 67% and have it be his worst 1v1 match in 6 years. The comparison here is obvious: Either Mega Man X is stronger than the original model, or Link isn't quite as strong as he used to be. He would of course still win this contest fairly easily (including recovering well from looking off in his first three matches), but maybe he's not the unbeatable force everyone thinks he is. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3826&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=97) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Luigi vs (7)Weighted Companion Cube 2010 _source: (3)Luigi vs (7)Weighted Companion Cube 2010 (revid 59238)_ ## Results Friday, March 5th, 2010 - **Round:** Hyrule Division Semifinal - **Match \#:** 98 - **Match Date:** Friday, March 5th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 22,253 - **Oracle Expectations:** Luigi - 57.99% 80 for - 4 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Luigi - 35.65% ## Ulti's Analysis Cube may have started this contest on fire, helping to make Sandal the lowest character in the LOL X-Stats, but he went out with a whimper. Every "joke" character this contest was going off their legitimate strength, except for maybe Missingno during the Crono match and the first four hours against Sephiroth. Worse yet, Cube ran into a strong Mario character. Mario characters are the perfect anti-joke kryptonite, so this was never going to go anywhere. Luigi just kinda went right for the Fire Flower and exposed Cube's one weakness as early as possible. Now this was an obvious match, so what's up with the prediction percentage? Only 35% of people had Luigi winning three matches? Seriously? Who in the world was going to beat him in the bottom half of this region? There's no candidate at all. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3827&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=98) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Sonic the Hedgehog vs (5)Ganondorf 2010 _source: (1)Sonic the Hedgehog vs (5)Ganondorf 2010 (revid 59240)_ ## Results Saturday, March 6th, 2010 - **Round:** Chaos Division Semifinal - **Match \#:** 99 - **Match Date:** Saturday, March 6th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 7,510 - **Oracle Expectations:** Sonic - 52.78% 74 for - 13 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Sonic - 47.09% ## Ulti's Analysis This match marked the beginning of the Ultimaterializer 24-Hour Match Pic Special, Featuring Ultimaterializer the Picsmith!™ Though to be serious Bacon loved my template idea for the sprite round this contest for whatever reason, so him picking a bunch of my pictures for round 3 wasn't too surprising. Not a bad showing given this was my first contest doing pictures, if I say so myself. According to Zen, "Ulti is the best pic noob ever, thank god he joined in, but WE'LL SEE COME FREEFORM HOW GOOD YOU ARE HAHA PUNK". Anyhoo, the match. This was some of the weirdest upset hype ever. For literally years, people have been hyping a Ganon \> Sonic upset special. It wasn't in jest, either. People were serious about it, and jumped all over this upset when the match was finally set up this contest. Something about Sonic being crap in fourways and all the near-elites being good enough to take him down and break the Noble Nine. But... really? The premise seemed ridiculous, plus Bacon showed us this particular Ganon picture before bracket lockdown. It was no secret Sonic would have a 2D sprite against Bacondorf, but people stuck with the upset anyway. Even the Oracle people had a consensus of only 53-47 in Sonic's favor here, which in my opinion was just ridiculous. When the match got underway, it went according to form -- that is if the fourways never happened, Sonic scored the 57-43 beating everyone would have expected of him had the fourways never happened. The fourways and the first round of this contest vastly overrated Sonic Team's weakness. In reality, Sonic himself is still Noble Nine caliber and the side characters are still just fine. Not only did this match restore some order that's been missing from contests for awhile, but it also completely destroyed any hope of a Kirby \> Sonic upset. Sonic is doing just fine, thanks, and will probably continue being alright for quite awhile. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3828&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=99) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Kirby vs (7)Vivi 2010 _source: (3)Kirby vs (7)Vivi 2010 (revid 59242)_ ## Results Saturday, March 6th, 2010 - **Round:** Chaos Division Semifinal - **Match \#:** 100 - **Match Date:** Saturday, March 6th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 10,696 - **Oracle Expectations:** Kirby - 56.15% 86 for - 2 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Kirby - 31.56% ## Ulti's Analysis There was mild Vivi \> Kirby upset hype once Vivi demolished Altair, but that was crushed about 2 seconds into this match. Vivi was never in this. Before long, it came down to whether or not Kirby could perform well enough to keep alive the Sonic upset. In a word.... no. Kirby needed to break 60% here, at least, if he hoped to crack into elite ranks. However, his win against Vivi was one of those matches where the percentages didn't move all day. Kirby's bandwagoned form from 4ways was clearly gone, and his legit strength wasn't going to be enough to beat Sonic. Even with this said, this prediction percentage was as odd as Luigi's. Less than a third of people had Kirby winning three matches? Really? For every good match the casuals have, they follow it up with about 20 of these stink bombs. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3829&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=100) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Mario vs (4)Ike 2010 _source: (1)Mario vs (4)Ike 2010 (revid 59244)_ ## Results Sunday, March 7th, 2010 - **Round:** Mushroom Division Semifinal - **Match \#:** 101 - **Match Date:** Sunday, March 7th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 24,981 - **Oracle Expectations:** Mario - 71.97% 87 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Mario - 79.25% ## Ulti's Analysis This was the second match this contest in which the match pic was changed. The old version had an unofficial sprite, from some Brawl fan art sprite sheet: Not like it even matters. Mario scoring a total SFF beating here was a guarantee, and seeing someone almost get tripled in round 3 is pretty bad. You have to wonder if Zidane might have broken 30% here. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3830&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=101) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Mega Man vs (7)Ryu Hayabusa 2010 _source: (3)Mega Man vs (7)Ryu Hayabusa 2010 (revid 59246)_ ## Results Sunday, March 7th, 2010 - **Round:** Mushroom Division Semifinal - **Match \#:** 102 - **Match Date:** Sunday, March 7th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 31,054 - **Oracle Expectations:** Mega Man - 63.70% 88 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Mega Man - 32.62% ## Ulti's Analysis If Mario wasn't FREAKING MARIO, a great case could be made for a Mega Man \> Mario upset. We all know Mario would just exact the IT'S FREAKING MARIO clause circa Mario \> Samus 2005, but look at Mega Man's performances here. Kicks the crap out of Cid worse than people expect. "It's fine, Cid just sucks more than we thought" is the excuse. So he kicks the crap out of Zack worse than people expect. Again, people bust out "It's fine, Zack just sucks worse than we thought" and call it a day. But 72-28 against Ryu Hayabusa? Not even Mega Man having the best sprite in gaming history can passively explain this one. Mega's haters were out in full force for whatever reason this contest, but the fact is undeniable: Mega Man is back to 2002 ass-kicking levels. Call this SFF or Pic Factor or whatever else you want, but doing better than expected three times in a row goes past being a trend. Mega Man and his entire series went back to where they belong this contest, and we can probably thank the return of 1v1s for it. Screw 4ways. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3831&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=102) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Sora vs (4)Bowser 2010 _source: (1)Sora vs (4)Bowser 2010 (revid 59248)_ ## Results Monday, March 8th, 2010 - **Round:** Heart Division Semifinal - **Match \#:** 103 - **Match Date:** Monday, March 8th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 4,874 - **Oracle Expectations:** Bowser - 50.20% 48 for - 39 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Bowser - 25.47% ## Ulti's Analysis Every contest has a division that just wrecks everyone's entry, and the Heart division took the cake as guru-buster this year. Bowser upsetting Sora was the first of three straight matches that would wreck brackets, and what's funny is Bowser pulling this off was almost a foregone conclusion once the first two rounds were finished. Sora looked like utter crap, while Bowser looked pretty much like his old self. Not villain-steroids Bowser who broke 40% on Sephiroth, but still more than good enough to beat Sora. Maybe Kingdom Hearts got unlucky with having so many night matches this contest, concluding with Sora's deathblow at the hands of Bowser here, but when you really look into the numbers the ASV wouldn't have mattered. None of KH's four losses were close enough for an ASV to matter much, and Captain Falcon beat Riku during the day. Sora and company need Kingdom Hearts 3 ASAP, or they might continue a rapid downward spiral. One could make a very good case Sora is the least deserving 1 seed we've ever had in a character contest. To get rolled over like this in a debatable match is pathetic, especially to the level of the vaunted Kingdom Hearts ASV being rendered irrelevant. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3832&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=103) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)L-Block vs (7)Charizard 2010 _source: (3)L-Block vs (7)Charizard 2010 (revid 59250)_ ## Results Monday, March 8th, 2010 - **Round:** Heart Division Semifinal - **Match \#:** 104 - **Match Date:** Monday, March 8th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 17,359 - **Oracle Expectations:** Charizard - 55.06% 81 for - 7 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Charizard - 8.83% ## Ulti's Analysis L-Block had three of the most boring matches of the contest. It's not him having a predictable path, because those happen. But he had three straight matches where the percentages barely moved for 12 hours, and with this match specifically it kind of killed the buzz of how important the match was. Sometimes, you know the exact moment a torch gets passed. You see it all the time in wrestling, porn and sports. We have our own version of that in contests sometimes, and this was a perfect example. SHAPED LIKE A BOOT TO KICK YOUR ASS got absolutely rolled by SHAPED LIKE A DRAGON TO BE FUCKING AWESOME, and L-Block may never be the same again. We already knew he was weakening and we already knew this was coming once THE ZARD beat Kratos, but getting 60-40'd against fellow bandwagon bait is the clear beginning of the end, if not the end already. This was a changing of the guard, plain and simple. Oh and if you think 8.83% is a low prediction percentage, go check out the finals for this division. THE ZARD totally wrecked people. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3833&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=104) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Samus Aran vs (13)Sub-Zero 2010 _source: (1)Samus Aran vs (13)Sub-Zero 2010 (revid 59252)_ ## Results Tuesday, March 9th, 2010 - **Round:** Varia Division Semifinal - **Match \#:** 105 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, March 9th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 17,519 - **Oracle Expectations:** Samus - 63.75% 89 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Samus - 66.90% ## Ulti's Analysis Samus ended up with a doubling here, which is very good. Remember, Auron failed to even break 60% on Sub-Zero a few years ago. But for a couple hours, we had something special going on. Samus was flirting with breaking 70%, which would have easily put her above Cloud. But then she fell from that insane pace overnight and ended with 67%, which put her from "above Cloud" to "longshot to pull off an upset on him". Even still, this was an absolutely amazing match for her and throws more proof onto the "Samus is probably stronger than Mario indirectly" pile. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3834&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=105) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (14)Jecht vs (10)Zelda 2010 _source: (14)Jecht vs (10)Zelda 2010 (revid 59254)_ ## Results Tuesday, March 9th, 2010 - **Round:** Varia Division Semifinal - **Match \#:** 106 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, March 9th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 14,556 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda - 62.47% 88 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zelda - 46.34% ## Ulti's Analysis Even though Jecht won two matches, he was a real oddball character in this contest. He upset Phoenix Wright, but not in very convincing fashion. Then in round 2, he lets Ratchet of all people get 44% on him including a morning vote choke job. Ratchet, the guy whose been nothing but fodder for years. So naturally, in standard Winter 2010 fashion, he throws one final curveball before bowing out. The Ratchet performance suggested Jecht would get totally rolled on in this match; remember, it was a day match against Zelda when Jecht lost the morning vote horribly twice. So what does he do? After starting off slowly, he fights his way above 40% after an hour or so. Well no problem, Zelda has a killer ASV. But when the ASV showed up, nothing happened. Jecht stayed above 40% for the rest of the match, save for a tiny little while in the evening. It was a total oddity of a match, and Final Fantasy 13 being released the day of this match assuredly had something to do with Jecht inexplicably doing this well. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3835&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=106) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Cloud Strife vs (4)Captain Falcon 2010 _source: (1)Cloud Strife vs (4)Captain Falcon 2010 (revid 59291)_ ## Results Wednesday, March 10th, 2010 - **Round:** Midgar Division Semifinal - **Match \#:** 107 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, March 10th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 21,479 - **Oracle Expectations:** Cloud - 68.22% 88 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Cloud - 83.60% ## Ulti's Analysis Given how bad Cloud's board vote always is, contrasted with how great Falcon's board vote always is, people were really looking forward to the first few seconds of this match. And it did not disappoint. Falcon had over 80% of the vote early and was over 40% at the freeze. He did of course drop later, but not as badly as one might think. 70-30 is a blowout, yes, but not many non-NN characters can claim to have broken 30% on Cloud. Ridley and Chris Redfield couldn't do it, and people considered those matches proof of Cloud's weakness. Characters like Pikachu, Fox, Auron, and even Bowser have failed to break 30% on Cloud. Yet here we are, with Captain Falcon pulling it off. Cloud really is weakening, and 4ways might have hidden just how much of a drop he's really suffered. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3836&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=107) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Leon Kennedy vs (7)Ryu 2010 _source: (3)Leon Kennedy vs (7)Ryu 2010 (revid 59292)_ ## Results Wednesday, March 10th, 2010 - **Round:** Midgar Division Semifinal - **Match \#:** 108 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, March 10th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 9,292 - **Oracle Expectations:** Ryu - 54.76% 84 for - 3 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Ryu - 22.76% ## Ulti's Analysis It was a long-standing belief that the winner of Ryu/Dante would get a bye through round 4, since Leon beating either Ryu or Dante wasn't going to happen. Then this match pic came out. Resident Evil: Gaiden has been a long-standing joke, but Leon actually got that stupid sprite in a match picture. All hope for a Leon upset or Leon even doing well went right out the window, because people were expecting the next incarnation of Solid Shit. Somehow, this didn't really happen. Yes Ryu won the match pretty easily, but this was far from some laughable blowout. He even lost the ASV against that blob of pixels, proving once and for all Leon Kennedy is a different entity from the rest of the Resident Evil series, and even Capcom as a whole. To win the ASV with that ugly mug against a fellow Capcom character is something else, and maybe, just maybe, this might have been a different match with even pics. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3837&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=108) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Solid Snake vs (5)Pikachu 2010 _source: (1)Solid Snake vs (5)Pikachu 2010 (revid 59293)_ ## Results Thursday, March 11th, 2010 - **Round:** Gear Division Semifinal - **Match \#:** 109 - **Match Date:** Thursday, March 11th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 5,342 - **Oracle Expectations:** Solid Snake - 59.00% 88 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Solid Snake - 69.52% ## Ulti's Analysis In the match directly preceding this one, Leon Kennedy went out and did his best impression of Solid shit. But no. Nonononono, you don't mess with the master. Not only did Solid shit grace us with his.... presence?... but Pikachu had a total godslaying sprite of his own to work with. And for 20 minutes or so, we were given one hell of a match. Pikachu got the early board vote, led by 60 at one point and led by 50 at the freeze. Next update, the lead drops all the way down to 19. Everyone assumed Ekans would stop messing around from here, but he only won the next update by 6 votes. And even more hilarious, the next update after that was a tie. 398-398. It took Ekans a full 25 minutes to get the lead in this match, but once he did he took off quite nicely. When you consider he was losing for the first 20 minutes of this match, Ekans actually didn't do half bad here in finishing 55-45. He even stomped the morning vote against a Pokemon, as Solid shit. That's no easy task, given Pikachu's sprite pulling off that insane run in 2007 and beating L-Block in 2008. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3838&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=109) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Auron vs (2)Squall Leonhart 2010 _source: (3)Auron vs (2)Squall Leonhart 2010 (revid 59294)_ ## Results Thursday, March 11th, 2010 - **Round:** Gear Division Semifinal - **Match \#:** 110 - **Match Date:** Thursday, March 11th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 2,430 - **Oracle Expectations:** Squall - 51.83% 71 for - 17 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Squall - 36.82% ## Ulti's Analysis In the stats topic, this has been a debated match for years. We always want to see 1v1 matches between near-elites and in this contest we got one of the best. Squall vs Auron has been discussed and dissected every which way for ages, and it's nice we got to see it happen. Need more bracket setups like this. That said, this probably shouldn't have been all that debated. Look at it just in terms of 1v1s. On pure results, Squall = Vincent \> Ganondorf \> Auron. No extrapolation needed, we've seen those matches before and Squall/Auron are on opposite ends. There's no real reason to believe anything has changed much since these matches took place, either. So that leaves Auron's trump card, the win over Sonic in the 4ways. Had Sonic not gotten a mid-contest Brawl announcement in 2007, Squall would have beaten him twice that year. It's not like Auron has something Squall himself couldn't have reproduced. Squall can even counter Auron's random Kingdom Hearts 2 appearance. It all added up to a close Squall win, which is exactly what we ended up with. Squall took a 100 vote lead in 15 minutes, then spent the next 10 minutes getting rocked before putting the match completely away. The final percentage may be 52-48, but this was one of those never-in-doubt close matches. Barring Final Fantasy X-0 (why doesn't this game exist?), Auron will probably never boost enough independently of Squall to turn this around. Auron's still a near-elite, he's just not at Squall's level. Few people are. Know what we need? (3)Luigi vs (2)Auron to complete the circle. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3839&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=110) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Sephiroth vs (13)Missingno 2010 _source: (1)Sephiroth vs (13)Missingno 2010 (revid 59295)_ ## Results Friday, March 12th, 2010 - **Round:** Jenova Division Semifinal - **Match \#:** 111 - **Match Date:** Friday, March 12th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 3,841 - **Oracle Expectations:** Sephiroth - 54.29% 66 for - 11 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Sephiroth - 74.25% ## Ulti's Analysis The second Missingno upset Crono, this match was hyped beyond belief. The basic idea is Missingno would catch an L-Block run and win the contest if he could get past Sephiroth, and the rallying was set in place days in advance. People thought Missingno could catch an insane early rally, build up a lead of 2000 or so and render the Total Domination Zone irrelevant. And if it was at all close come the morning, forget it. No way would Missingno's ralliers let him lose to Sephiroth of all people. It... didn't really work out that way. Missingno did dominate the early vote, and had a lead of over 200 votes at the freeze. For most characters, this would be an amazing start. But not here. Remember, L-Block had a lead of over 800 votes on Link through the first five minutes. Missingno supporters were actually very disappointed here, and were calling the match over. Unfortunately, they were 100% right. Even as Missingno spent the next two hours getting his lead just over 600 votes, there was a real sense he dropped the ball on a great opportunity. For reference's sake, L-Block had a lead of 4700 votes on Link after 2 hours. Translate that to 1v1 and you get what, 10000 votes? Obviously, Missingno wasn't close to that. Sephiroth was making some great stalls even as Missingno built his lead, and there was a sense of the inevitable once the deep night vote began. Sure enough, this match ended once the TDZ began. Seph erased the entire deficit in about an hour and a half, and turned a once-close match into a complete laugher. This match did set records alright, but not the records Missingno fans were hoping for. Sephiroth ended up dominating well past the TDZ, crushing even the morning vote en route to a 3800 vote win. It ranks up with the biggest vote swings ever, though no one can decide on the criteria for that one. Some call Master Hand \> Kuja the biggest swing ever, and add the "comeback" caveat to keep people from counting matches that have stalled for awhile before someone just takes off. Fine, but what about Sora vs Alucard? Sora was down 50 for awhile before winning by over 10000 votes. Knuckles was losing to Kefka for an extended period by over 100 before winning by 12500 or so. Or if you want a match where a "legit" comeback had to take place, Street Fighter 2 was beating Mario RPG by 230 until the morning vote hit. That match was very much in doubt, we didn't know a lot about voting trends or whatever else. SF2 looked like it was going to win. And then... boom. Mario RPG swings 12500 votes. Someone come up with a good definition for this, because it's one of those "needs a wiki page" topics. Though Missingno lost, he gave us one hell of a run and would have made a match of this were this a day match. I love what creativename has done for these contests, but his stat topics Buzz Killington act got old years ago -- and the assumption Sephiroth's morning vote here proves he would have dominated Missingno in a day match is ridiculous. The ralliers had to sleep eventually, saw how far apart it was in the morning and didn't even bother. That's all this proves. If anything, this match proves just how much Missingno did with legit strength this contest. For Sephiroth, you'd think this would be a huge win for him. It wasn't. If anything, winning this match was the biggest mistake he's ever made. He was already a huge target for anti-votes before beating Missingno; beating him only incurred even more wrath. It's ironic the Missingno fans took this contest more seriously than anyone else -- You know, the whole "we vote for jokes because you guys treat this stuff like it's your life" crowd -- but that's how contests work sometimes. Most other characters beating Missingno could shake such things off. Not Sephiroth. Not in a year when Snake \> Sephiroth was \*the\* hyped upset of choice. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3840&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=111) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (14)Big Daddy vs (10)Tifa Lockheart 2010 _source: (14)Big Daddy vs (10)Tifa Lockheart 2010 (revid 59296)_ ## Results Friday, March 12th, 2010 - **Round:** Jenova Division Semifinal - **Match \#:** 112 - **Match Date:** Friday, March 12th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 15,100 - **Oracle Expectations:** Tifa - 63.84% 76 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Tifa - 28.74% ## Ulti's Analysis No matter how badly other FF7 characters get anti-voted, Tifa doesn't seem to have that problem. But with that said, this was an odd match for her. The percentages barely moved all day, which is strange given Big Daddy isn't all that strong a character. Maybe Big Mommies have needs, too. The comparison here is obvious. Tifa got 62% on Gordon Freeman, yet didn't really come close to that against Daddy next round. Either the Missingno fans punished Tifa for Sephiroth's win, or Big Daddy would beat Gordon Freeman with ease. Gordon losing that match wouldn't surprise many people, but you won't find too many gurus picking it. This was definite Missingno backlash. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3841&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=112) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Link vs (3)Luigi 2010 _source: (1)Link vs (3)Luigi 2010 (revid 59298)_ ## Results Saturday, March 13th, 2010 - **Round:** Hyrule Division Final - **Match \#:** 113 - **Match Date:** Saturday, March 13th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 24,393 - **Oracle Expectations:** Link - 69.63% 76 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Link - 75.43% ## Ulti's Analysis This was the first Link match all contest where he looked like he was in godslayer mode. Apparently he got annoyed at people doubting him after MMX outdoing Mega Man 2004 on him. He did lose the board vote again, but it didn't last beyond a couple minutes before Link rolled right along. Some actually called Link not breaking 70% here, so he had fun laughing at those people too. What's funny is this wouldn't even be Link's best "Don't you know who I am?" performance. Poor Sonic. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3842&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=113) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Sonic the Hedgehog vs (3)Kirby 2010 _source: (1)Sonic the Hedgehog vs (3)Kirby 2010 (revid 59297)_ ## Results Saturday, March 13th, 2010 - **Round:** Chaos Division Final - **Match \#:** 114 - **Match Date:** Saturday, March 13th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 6,681 - **Oracle Expectations:** Sonic - 54.05% 72 for - 7 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Sonic - 31.36% ## Ulti's Analysis This match was the culmination of Sonic upset hype falling flat on its face. First Ganondorf completely crapped out in round 3, then Kirby followed suit by not being in this match for more than a couple minutes. Given the insane hype behind Ganon or Kirby upsetting Sonic in this division, Sonic's thorough beating of both characters pretty much shut the door on him being a lot weaker or being the weak link of the Noble Nine or whatever else. The 4ways overrated Sonic Team's collapse, but 1v1s returned at least Sonic to normalcy a bit. For the record, Crono is the weak link of the Noble Nine and has been for awhile. This probably isn't in doubt anymore. Sonic isn't a mega strong character, but he's surely not the crapfest that 4ways made him out to be. He is what he's always been: third tier of the Noble Nine. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3843&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=114) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Mario vs (3)Mega Man 2010 _source: (1)Mario vs (3)Mega Man 2010 (revid 67911)_ ## Results Sunday, March 14th, 2010 - **Round:** Mushroom Division Final - **Match \#:** 115 - **Match Date:** Sunday, March 14th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 8,406 - **Oracle Expectations:** Mario - 55.72% 76 for - 4 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Mario - 62.42% ## Ulti's Analysis Haven't we seen this match before? Let me jog my memory here.... Oh yeah, this was the quasi-sequel to a rather famous contest match. The difference this time is no one picked Mega Man pre-contest. There was no x-stat support or anything else. Everyone knew Mario would win this. But during this contest, a good argument can be made Mega Man's first three matches are more impressive than Mario's. But this isn't all that relevant, because it's FREAKING MARIO. He's so FREAKING MARIO that Mega Man didn't even win the board vote despite all the joking groundswell of support for him. Mario is basically the ultimate anti-joke. The percentages here didn't finish far off from Mario's "upset" of Samus in 2005, but this time it was quite expected. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3844&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=115) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (4)Bowser vs (7)Charizard 2010 _source: (4)Bowser vs (7)Charizard 2010 (revid 61349)_ ## Results Sunday, March 14th, 2010 - **Round:** Heart Division Final - **Match \#:** 116 - **Match Date:** Sunday, March 14th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 7,898 - **Oracle Expectations:** Charizard - 47.70% 12 for - 68 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Charizard - 3.17% ## Ulti's Analysis First and foremost, this match had by far the best set of pictures of any freeform match. It's difficult to get much more badass than Bowser vs Charizard, and the picsmiths followed suit. Only one pic (that one with the fire ring in the background) seemed odd, but who cares. It's Bowser and Charizard. Now it took eight years' worth of contests, but we finally have a match that rivals Mario vs Cloud 2002 for perfect release date timing. As everyone knows, Super Mario Sunshine came out on the very day of that match. The timing of something like this is insane, but Mario didn't care and parlayed it to one of the most miraculous wins ever. Charizard's upset of Bowser wasn't two gaming titans in a brand new contest pulling off a classic match or anything, but it's equally perfect release date timing. Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver launched on the day of this match, and had set in by the time this match came around. Remember, this match started at noon. A ton of people were playing the game and looking for help before then. On a normal day, Bowser probably beats Charizard easily. Maybe he even SFFs him. If this match took place next year, Bowser could break 55%. But HGSS day was anything but a "normal day". This thing was even for about a minute, but then Charizard totally took off. The match was never in doubt after that, which was the biggest shock of all. Bowser was never in this thing, to the point where ended up doing worse than Kratos. Bowser losing in a Pokefad bandwagon contest on HGSS is acceptable. It would have happened to a lot of characters. But rolling over like a turtle and being unable to get up afterwards looks really bad for him. The circumstances around this upset were amazing. HGSS launching on match day is insane enough, but Charizard even getting here was a massive longshot. Only L-Block winning the 2007 contest had prediction percentages lower than Charizard winning the Heart division. It would be the one division all contest the 1 seed failed to win. All we were missing here was a Bulbapedia link circa PlanetGamecube's 2002 stunt. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3845&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=116) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Samus Aran vs (10)Zelda 2010 _source: (1)Samus Aran vs (10)Zelda 2010 (revid 68303)_ ## Results Monday, March 15th, 2010 - **Round:** Varia Division Final - **Match \#:** 117 - **Match Date:** Monday, March 15th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 14,026 - **Oracle Expectations:** Samus - 60.59% 79 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Samus - 53.29% ## Ulti's Analysis So hey, remember when these two had a match way back in 2006? It was 55-45, which is probably how that match was supposed to go without SFF. Fast forward 4 years, and suddenly Samus outdoes that match by 9%. Samus, the one Nintendo character who never SFFs anything else, SFFing Zelda of all people? Something was up. Either Samus was about to win the Winter 2010 Contest, Zelda lost a step or two or Samus has finally learned how to SFF people. Given how great Samus looked compared to how odd Zelda looked all contest long, it's probably a mix of the latter two. And even still, a difference of 9% is no joke. Samus was berserk this contest. Zelda getting a deboost across the board was possible, given even with Link winning the other two also looked a bit off this contest. One thing was for sure. Samus vs Cloud was going to be a really, really fun match. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3846&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=117) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Cloud Strife vs (7)Ryu 2010 _source: (1)Cloud Strife vs (7)Ryu 2010 (revid 59303)_ ## Results Monday, March 15th, 2010 - **Round:** Midgar Division Final - **Match \#:** 118 - **Match Date:** Monday, March 15th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 26,284 - **Oracle Expectations:** Cloud - 63.90% 73 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Cloud - 74.63% ## Ulti's Analysis Ryu's streak of breaking 40% on Noble Niners ended with a massive thud this contest, in what could perhaps be seen as Cloud's best match this year. Ryu didn't lead during the board vote like most other characters would against Cloud, and got completely rocked afterwards. Cloud was 10 minutes away from breaking 66% on him, which is a thoroughly impressive performance given Ryu's moniker "Mister Consistency". All that's left now is to get Ryu to complete the Noble Nine gauntlet. He still hasn't faced Link, Sephiroth or Mario. He's been in a match against the other 6, and got the prerequisite 42% against all but Cloud. 42% against Cloud, Link, Sephiroth and probably even Mario will be a tall order, but we can still get him to have matches against all nine members. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3847&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=118) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Solid Snake vs (2)Squall Leonhart 2010 _source: (1)Solid Snake vs (2)Squall Leonhart 2010 (revid 67896)_ ## Results Tuesday, March 16th, 2010 - **Round:** Gear Division Final - **Match \#:** 119 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, March 16th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 10,172 - **Oracle Expectations:** Solid Snake - 57.59% 77 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Solid Snake - 54.64% ## Ulti's Analysis This was our fourth time seeing this match. For reference's sake, the past three: 2002: Snake 65.43% - Squall 34.57% 2006: Snake 57.59% - Squall 42.41% 2007: Snake 58.48% - Squall 41.52% (the L-Block \> Snake \> Sonic \> Squall match) 2002 obviously happened when Squall only had FF8 going for him, so we can throw it out. Squall is a great barometer for how Snake has incrementally increased the past few years, even if two characters facing each other four times kinda sucks. As you can see, Snake keeps going up little by little. He was actually over 60% for a little while in this match, before the TDZ came and got Squall back over 40% for good. It was the first match all contest where Snake looked good for 12 hours straight, and was the match where it was realized Snake was coming for Sephiroth's head. Then Sephy just collapsed against Tifa and the so-called upset became a mortal lock. Beyond that, the story here was Squall's seeding. He was the only 2 seed all contest to do what he was supposed to do and make it to round 4. The other 7 of them -- Nathan Drake, Altair, Master Chief, Kratos, Ezio, Dante and Gordon Freeman -- all failed to even get out of the second round. In the third round thanks to this 2 Seed Curse, we had four straight 3 vs 7 matches (and five total), two 14 vs 10 matches and only one 3 vs 2 match. The biggest irony of this entire contest is outside Squall himself, Kratos was the only properly seeded 2 in the entire bracket. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3848&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=119) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Sephiroth vs (10)Tifa Lockheart 2010 _source: (1)Sephiroth vs (10)Tifa Lockheart 2010 (revid 59311)_ ## Results Tuesday, March 16th, 2010 - **Round:** Jenova Division Final - **Match \#:** 120 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, March 16th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 9,915 - **Oracle Expectations:** Sephiroth - 63.17% 77 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Sephiroth - 64.01% ## Ulti's Analysis This is pretty much the worst match Sephiroth has ever had, including losing to Snake this year. Any other odd match from him or multi-poll loss can be blamed on shenanigans or Cloud SFFing him while someone else snuck by for second place or something. Not this match. Failing to pummel Vincent with the SFF hammer was acceptable enough, since Square SFF is rather difficult anyway. And even then, 63-37 wasn't that bad because Vincent is perennially a near-elite. But this.... this was just embarrassing in every conceivable way. Taking the math literally, Vincent only scores 43.58% on Tifa. That's just a ridiculous pre-SFF percentage for two characters that might be dead even. Sephiroth just sucked here, no two ways about it. He was a prime anti-vote target before the Missingno win ever happened, and then afterwards he became this.... thing. Whatever that is, it surely wasn't Sephiroth. Sephiroth wouldn't only be winning by 15 votes against Tifa after 10 minutes. No, this was Sephiroth against Tifa and "Not Sephiroth", with the latter receiving fresh power from angry Missingno fans. Even after Seph recovered and put the match away, he only ended up with 56%, putting the aforementioned Tifa/Vincent percentage at an insane 56.5-43.5%. This pretty much made it official: Sephiroth was not beating Snake. The match in doubt would be the Samus/Cloud winner against Snake. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3849&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=120) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Link vs (1)Sonic the Hedgehog 2010 _source: (1)Link vs (1)Sonic the Hedgehog 2010 (revid 67877)_ ## Results Wednesday, March 17th, 2010 - **Round:** Contest Quarterfinal - **Match \#:** 121 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, March 17th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 21,751 - **Oracle Expectations:** Link - 64.91% 70 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Link - 68.79% ## Ulti's Analysis It was a long time ago, but Link actually had a barometer for this match: Cloud's 2003 killing of Sonic. Remember, this was the match where everyone took notice that Cloud could perhaps upset Link that year. 7 years later, Link outdid that with ease right from the start. Link was over 70% within 20 minutes, stayed there until Sega's standard morning vote and got it back just before the match ended. A 70-30 beating in a Noble Nine match is insane, and given how off the Zelda trio looked this contest a lot of people are blaming SFF for this match. It makes sense. Against Thrall, Alucard and Cloud, Link didn't look good at all. It was Luigi and Sonic that made him look invincible, and the biggest anomaly of all was that strange MMX match. One would assume Link could lay down the SFF hammer there if he did the same against Sonic, but it didn't happen. Regardless, some felt Sonic even getting to this point was good for him. Everyone also knew he'd get killed, but reenacting Mario World \> Sonic 2 was a bit disappointing. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3850&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=121) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Mario vs (7)Charizard 2010 _source: (1)Mario vs (7)Charizard 2010 (revid 59315)_ ## Results Wednesday, March 17th, 2010 - **Round:** Contest Quarterfinal - **Match \#:** 122 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, March 17th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 5,556 - **Oracle Expectations:** Mario - 58.43% 69 for - 3 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Mario - 48.45% ## Ulti's Analysis A visible bandwagon formed for Charizard mid-contest, and when paired with HGSS allowed him to win the Heart division in stunning, convincing fashion. But against FREAKING MARIO, surely his time was done and he'd be lucky to break 40%. Well, not exactly. Pokemon has long since proven it doesn't really get SFFd anymore, and this match probably hammers that point home best of all. The Zard was never in it to win it beyond the first couple minutes of the board vote, but getting 46.4% on Mario in a day match is no joke. Mario was actually over 54% at one point, but THE ZARD beasted all over Mario's percentage come Pokemon ASV time. Yes he lost fairly easily, but this match was about more than winning or losing. We all knew FREAKING MARIO was going to win. But even in a losing effort, THE ZARD helped Pokemon go out as the star of this contest. We all know how good Pokemon was, but borrowing from charmander6000's stats probably tells the story best: Top 10 Most Popular Night Polls 1\. Sephiroth vs. Missingno – 66731 2\. Link vs. Thrall (R1) – 60599 3\. Link vs. Alucard (R2) – 59971 4\. Cloud Strife vs. Samus Aran (R5) – 59334 5\. Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Revolver Ocelot (R1) – 58208 6\. Link vs. Luigi (R4) – 57731 7\. Mario vs. Big Boss (R2) – 57211 8\. Cloud Strife vs. Chris Redfield (R2) – 56563 9\. Charizard vs. Duke Nukem (R1) – 56465 10\. Leon Kennedy vs. Vault Boy (R1) – 55924 Top 10 Most Popular Day Polls 1\. Missingno vs. Crono (R1) – 91081 2\. Solid Snake vs. Sephiroth (R5) – 86776 3\. Charizard vs. Bowser (R4) – 83524 4\. Cloud Strife vs. Ryu (R4) – 82222 5\. Charizard vs. Kratos (R2) – 82168 6\. Charizard vs. L-Block (R3) – 81553 7\. Mega Man X vs. Captain John Price (R1) – 81068 8\. Pikachu vs. Commander Shepard (R2) – 80790 9\. Sephiroth vs. Tifa Lockheart (R4) – 80421 10\. Amaterasu vs. Shadow the Hedgehog (R1) – 79846 Pokemon is nearly half the list. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3851&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=122) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Samus Aran vs (1)Cloud Strife 2010 _source: (1)Samus Aran vs (1)Cloud Strife 2010 (revid 72884)_ ## Results Thursday, March 18th, 2010 - **Round:** Contest Quarterfinal - **Match \#:** 123 - **Match Date:** Thursday, March 18th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 3,336 - **Oracle Expectations:** Cloud - 55.70% 70 for - 3 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Cloud - 63.80% ## Ulti's Analysis Samus had legitimate hype coming into this match given four straight godkiller performances, but few actually believed she would win a 12 hour night match against Cloud. Much of the hype was the in-jest hopeful type, although Samus really did make a case going into this. Come match time, the beginning is about what you'd expect. Samus won the board vote and jumped out to a lead of 100 against the FF7 character. Like Missingno before her, the lack of a total slayer board vote surely spelled Samus's doom later, but at least we could have fun for a little while. Cloud went and erased the 100 vote lead over the next few updates, and from this point he normally takes off, dominates overnight and shakes off the early troubles. Yet after Cloud evened the match, Samus shot back up again. So Cloud fought back. Before long, he took the lead and again looked to dominate overnight. But yet again, Samus refused to let the match go and took the lead back. This little dance continued until well past 3 a.m., with neither character doing anything and the match basically being even. But just as hope set in on Samus pulling off an insane upset, the Total Domination Zone set in and Cloud finally put the match away. Anti-climactic ending, but at least it was a fun first three hours. What's funny is this exact scenario happened in 2004, and we all assumed Samus finishing over 40% was amazing for her. But in 2010, she held on for dear life and stayed over 47% (likely falls below 46% or so in a 24 hour match). Maybe in a few years, she can win this match outright. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3852&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=123) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Solid Snake vs (1)Sephiroth 2010 _source: (1)Solid Snake vs (1)Sephiroth 2010 (revid 59320)_ ## Results Thursday, March 18th, 2010 - **Round:** Contest Quarterfinal - **Match \#:** 124 - **Match Date:** Thursday, March 18th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 5,132 - **Oracle Expectations:** Solid Snake - 48.77% 26 for - 47 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Solid Snake - 18.31% ## Ulti's Analysis Because of various multi-way poll results, this was the hyped match of the contest going in. Then as more and more of this contest played out, it became clear Snake was going to win this match. And easily, at that. Not only that, Sephiroth was bound to lose the board vote worse than usual because of beating Missingno. Sure enough, Snake jumped out to some ridiculous early lead along the lines of 25-1 and never really looked back. This was as dominating a performance one can get from a 53-47 win, and this came during a day match. MGS sucks during the day, and FF7 is actually better overall during the day than at night. Night time only looks stronger because of the Total Domination Zone. If this were a full 24 hour match, it would have gotten worse for Sephiroth. A lot worse. How bad did it get for him? It took Sephiroth more than 4 hours to win an update in this so-called debated match. That first update win was by a grand total of 7 votes. He only won about 10 updates all match, and went out like a scared dog. Even worse is it will likely get worse for him before it gets better. Sephiroth is in Master Chief territory, and not even a full remake of FF7 will totally get him out of there. For Snake, the focus wasn't really on Sephiroth here, but on Cloud. 53-47 on Sephiroth is an amazing performance, and this could have been 54-46 in a 24 hour match. If we get this format again, the 24 hour matches need to start one round sooner in the quarterfinals. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3853&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=124) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Link vs (1)Mario 2010 _source: (1)Link vs (1)Mario 2010 (revid 59323)_ ## Results Friday, March 19th, 2010 - **Round:** Contest Semifinal - **Match \#:** 125 - **Match Date:** Friday, March 19th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 30,450 - **Oracle Expectations:** Link - 61.39% 70 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Link - 50.88% ## Ulti's Analysis "The more things change, the more they stay the same." -Alphonse Karr As everyone knows, this was the 2002 final. Mario scored only 37.47% there, and it was a fairly anticlimactic finish to an insane last few rounds of that contest. 8 years later, Mario finally gets his rematch and pretty much puts out the same performance. What's disappointing about it is how opinion of the two characters was almost reversed this time around. In 2002, everyone was sick of Mario and sided with Link to slay the beast, as it were. This year, a lot of anti-Link sentiment was getting tossed around because of him being far too good, and people wanted to see Mario do well. Mario only parlayed this into being over 40% at the freeze, and he pretty much got rocked from then on. Not a bad performance per se, because Link doesn't have the "King of SFF" title for nothing. People were just expecting Mario to do a little better. As an aside this marked the first 24 hour match of the contest, and the final three matches (semifinals and final) would all be 24 hours. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3854&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=125) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Cloud Strife vs (1)Solid Snake 2010 _source: (1)Cloud Strife vs (1)Solid Snake 2010 (revid 59325)_ ## Results Saturday, March 20th, 2010 - **Round:** Contest Semifinal - **Match \#:** 126 - **Match Date:** Saturday, March 20th, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 5,256 - **Oracle Expectations:** Cloud - 50.16% 36 for - 34 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Cloud - 39.43% ## Ulti's Analysis Snake vs Sephiroth was the hyped match pre-contest, but as the contest wore on it became increasingly clear we should have been hyping the Samus/Cloud winner versus Snake. Snake had a legitimate shot at pulling off the upset either way, although early on against Cloud he didn’t do as well as one might expect. He won the board vote, but was actually going down just before the freeze. He recovered and built a lead of 400 through the first 90 minutes, but everyone knew the Total Domination Zone would end that fun before long. Sure enough, Cloud began coming back and fought through all of Snake's best efforts to stall. But as Cloud got the lead below 100 and started making a push to take control of the match outright, a funny thing happened. Snake stalled. A lot. Like, stalled through the entire TDZ and just completely refused to let Cloud start winning. It was like watching a Solid versus Liquid fight in poll form, with neither character giving an inch. For nearly three hours, these two were either tied or within 30 votes of one another. There was some legitimate buzz in the air about Snake pulling off a miracle and perhaps winning this match -- barring creativename's Buzz Killington act in the stats topic, that is. If the entire board is happy about maybe seeing something new, don't rattle off a million trends and go "well because of this statistical proliferation in the stats, Cloud should begin winning around X hour and win with Y percent". No one wants to hear it, and it totally kills the unknown factor that makes these contests so fun in the first place. For whatever reason it was Snake matches, not Pokemon matches, that brought out the absolute worst of people this contest. Anyway it's rare to see the morning vote save Final Fantasy 7, but it happened. We were also calling for MGS's crappy day vote to show up at the worst time, and in this match it happened. Snake held on for dear life once it was clear Cloud was going to win the morning vote and the match, and before long he gave up the ghost and watched as Cloud buried him. It was a great contest run for Snake, but it came to an end in the semifinal. This left us with a Link/Cloud final. Again. You can imagine how happy people were about this, and some were calling for Link to rise backlash and double Cloud early. Snake's deep runs in recent years have almost always come at Final Fantasy 7's expense, and the day we see Snake upset Cloud isn't far off. The only thing left for Snake to do is to make a deep run at Nintendo's expense. Instead of having to go through Sephiroth and Cloud, he needs to get past Samus and Mario. 1 on 1, too, not in gimmicky 4way crap. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3855&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=126) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Link vs (1)Cloud Strife 2010 _source: (1)Link vs (1)Cloud Strife 2010 (revid 61460)_ ## Results Sunday, March 21st, 2010 - **Round:** Contest Final - **Match \#:** 127 - **Match Date:** Sunday, March 21st, 2010 - **Vote difference:** 9,130 - **Oracle Expectations:** Link - 57.17% 74 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Link - 36.55% ## Ulti's Analysis Hmm, Link beating Cloud late in a contest where Link gets a percentage in the low 50s and Cloud something in the high 40s. Seems oddly familiar somehow.... - Link_vs_Cloud_Strife_2004 - Link_vs_Cloud_Strife_2005 - Link_vs_Cloud_Strife_2006 - L-Block_vs_Link_vs_Cloud_vs_Snake_2007 - Link_vs_Solid_Snake_vs_Cloud_vs_Crono_2008 Only 2008 deviated much from this, but Crono was dragging Cloud down in that final. If you look back on this history, Cloud's win over Link in 2003 is as big or bigger a miracle than Mario's win on Cloud in 2002. Kingdom Hearts and a match picture doesn't explain that match anymore, especially given how easily Link gets past everything else. Come 2010, it was the same ending as always. Link \> Cloud, with a percentage close to what we've seen so often before. People were none too happy with Cloud beating Snake, but the LINK ALWAYS WINS anger trumps even Cloud's anti-votes. As a result, Cloud did *far* better than people expected. The Oracle expected Link to get at least 57% here, and many people even had him breaking 60%. So even though Cloud got rocked as expected early, he made an excellent percentage comeback to make the final respectable. It's also amazing how these two still bring in so many votes. That said, this was a disappointing final. Link-always-wins hate being so huge that Cloud of all people benefits is a pleasant surprise, but that's not the point. Cloud making this match as close as he did was not a good thing, because now it's harder to make the case Link needs to be removed. But make no mistake. He *needs* to get taken out of the field. His only two losses, ever, involved Celda and the entire internet ganging up on him. To make a good bracket, you need to have all the good matches on the side of the bracket Link *isn't* on. At least one third of people will always pick him to win and bracket vote accordingly. This is a huge problem. It's time for Link to go. Cloud doing well in the final is almost irrelevant, since he's clearly weakening. Snake could have a legit shot at beating him even next year. But Link? He'll never lose a match again without insane joke/bandwagon support. And that is a huge, huge problem. He's the anti-fun. It's time for him to get the boot and be the super secret final boss at the end or something. Bring back the Tournament of Champions, Battle Royale, whatever. Having Link in the main field doesn't work anymore. What's sad is Link will *still* get the most nominations next year, even though no one on Board 8 bothers with it and everyone knows he always wins. ## Match Trends ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3856&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k10&type=match&match=127) - **Previous Match**