# Game of the Decade (2010)

_Board 8 wiki -- CC BY-SA 3.0. Contest overview plus 128 match writeups, in match order. Converted from MediaWiki to Markdown; navigation, image embeds and footnotes stripped. See ATTRIBUTION.md._


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## Game of the Decade

_source: Game of the Decade (revid 88286)_

<table>
<caption><strong>Fall 2010 Contest</strong></caption>
<thead>
<tr class="header">
<th><p>Announced:</p></th>
<th><p>September 1, 2010</p></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td><p>Started:</p></td>
<td><p>October 20, 2010</p></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><p>Ended:</p></td>
<td><p>December 23, 2010</p></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><p>Winner:</p></td>
<td><p>Winner: Majora's Mask Runner-up: SSB Brawl</p></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><p>Contest Winner:</p></td>
<td><p>LamdaMax - 396 points</p></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><p>Notable matches:</p></td>
<td><p>Deus Ex &gt; Rock Band 2, SotC &gt; MGS2,</p>
<p>KHII &gt; KH, Brawl &gt; Melee,</p>
<p>Majora &gt; FFX, Majora &gt; Brawl</p></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

**Fall 2010 Contest**

**Fall 2010 Contest**, better known as the **Game of the Decade Contest**, was the third Games Contest held on GameFAQs. Only games released between 2000 and 2009 were eligible for this bracket. Nominations opened on September 1st, 2010.

## Ulti's Pre-Contest Analysis

Yeah, remember back when this thing started? Probably not, given all the final week hoopla. But back on September 1st, Allen announced this thing. Then after the standard paranoia, things were gradually leaked via Allen's own version of the DOJO and off we went. Format was the same as last winter, but with a twist: Game of the Decade. So no heavy hitters from the 1990s, and nothing from 2010 either much to the disappointment of the various Board 8 denizens that fail at math. That a single topic questioning what a "decade" meant got more than 2 replies is a testament to how badly you people bite at everything. Did you know "gullible" is listed in no dictionary?

The contest ended up starting on October 20th, which is a brisk pace. I think the bracket came out less than 2 weeks prior, and some shenanigans took place with Allen coming into board8chat, the vote-in polls and of course the bracket itself. It was a thoroughly well-design mess with no dumb gimmicks like generational gaps or gender splits. Yeah there were a few setups, but nothing worth complaining about since we got Brawl vs Melee and whole ton of unpredictability out of the deal.

But before all that, we had to finish getting the field together. Unlike last winter where the vote-ins were stacked and lower seeds made runs, the vote-in polls this year were actually deciding the fodder. In fact all the 1-4 seeds won their first round matches this time around, so there was nothing crazy going on. At least, not at the top.

<http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4047> - Assassin's Creed and Devil May Cry getting stuck into a vote-in was a complete disgrace, and it showed in the results. They stomped everything, hinted at DMC3 and AC2 making the bracket with ease, and all the other games were left to pick up scraps. The top 6 games from this poll made it in, which is odd given another poll only had 4. But it's hard feeling bad for Dark Cloud 2 when it misses out on 6th place by 450 votes. BG&E got it worse given its first round opponent was Galaxy. Good grief.

<http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4048> - Much more competitive poll all around, and the one that opened the most eyes. First off, this poll had 5 RPGs in it. This meant cannibalism, and in the end it meant Star Ocean 3 and Fire Emblem getting completely screwed. FE10 started strong, but barely missed the cut. Mario Kart DS was laughed at even though it did well, mainly because everyone hates Mario Kart DS, and the top two games more or less shocked everyone. Legend of Dragoon and Star Wars proved themselves legit here, even though neither one went out and won their match. Ninja Gaiden being in this poll and placing was also pretty funny, for reasons we'll get into later. But the big thing here was Legend of Dragoon outright winning this vote-in. That was a fun day on the board, with tons of people arguing about whether the game was good or not.

<http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4049> - The worst of the vote-ins. RE5, God of War 2 and Fusion wrecked everything, and inFamous ended up getting in by default from the leftovers. Nothing else even came close, and you get the feeling Allen didn't like this vote-in either with only taking 4 games from it.

<http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4050> - One day after a poll where 4 games get picked, we get a poll where SEVEN games - Gears 2, SoulCalibur 2, The Sims, Castlevania DoS, Wii Sports, Guitar Hero 2 and Viewtiful Joe -- all get in. Really, we couldn't have dropped a game or two from this poll and taken one of the games from the 4-only poll? Not that any of these games would have won anything, but 6-7-4-7 is strange. I'm guessing Allen went by individual vote totals, which is bizarre when you think about it.

The other new thing worth bringing up was the Battle Challenge, which was used only for this contest. It was a cool little bank-or-bust deal where you'd try getting a streak going to increase your points multiplier, but if you got a match wrong you'd lose everything not banked. Cool idea, although the multiplier didn't change from round to round so the late matches became irrelevant since the winner clinched in round 4 or something. It would be cool to see this brought out for special occasions in the future, but with a multiplier tweak so the late rounds meant more. As-is, it favors round 1 far too much.

## Ulti's Post-Contest Analysis

People look forward to my contest ranking every season for whatever reason, and here it is:

Fall 2010 (GotD) \> Spring 2004 (Games) \> Summer 2002 (Characters) \> Summer 2003 (Characters) \> Winter 2010 (Characters) \> Summer 2005 (Characters) \> Fall 2009 (Games 4-way) \> Summer 2007 (Characters 4-way) \> Summer 2006 (Females vs Males) \> Spring 2006 (Series) \> Summer 2008 (Characters 4-way) \> Summer 2004 (Characters) \> Spring 2005 (Villains)

Yes, I rank Fall 2010 first. Given all the information we have these days, it was the best contest possible and virtually functioned like a contest where we had no info. Even in some cases where we had info we were shocked, like Shadow of the Colossus's run or Majora \> GSC. This isn't overrating something recent, either, because this contest will last for awhile as being really really good long after it ends. The first day was crazy with the Deus Ex \> Rock Band 2 match, the last day was crazy with the final, and we got a whole ton of crazy in between. Only round 2 was really disappointing, and that was only because we had so many upset recipients from round 1 getting beat later.

All in all, best contest. If you look at all the other contests people have called the "best", they're often overrated. Summer 2002 had a great round 3 and onward, but have you looked at the bracket recently? It was terrible. Summer 2003 was great, but only in spurts. Spring 2004 was good, but suffered from divisions by era and got wholly bailed out by Division 128 being so good. Match Fall 2010 up against any other contest, and it comes out looking better.

People also took the "Game of the Decade" title very seriously, and the bracket was filled with a ton of worthy games. For whatever reason, be it critical acclaim, social influence, gaming influence or just plain being a damn good game, these games were all worthy of the title (bracket order, and with all joking and personal bias aside):

Fallout 3, Deus Ex, Rock Band 2, Uncharted 2: Among Thieves, Halo: Combat Evolved, Metroid Prime, Okami, God of War, Grand Theft Auto 3, Half-Life 2, Super Smash Bros. Melee, Guitar Hero 2, Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare, Super Smash Bros. Brawl (seriously), Super Mario Galaxy, Zelda: Twilight Princess, BioShock, Final Fantasy X, Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas, Devil May Cry, Resident F\*\*\*ing Evil 4 (my own personal choice), Silent Hill 2, Braid, Portal, Mass Effect, Marvel vs. Capcom 2, World of Warcraft, Diablo 2, Shadow of the Colossus, The Sims, Zelda: Majora's Mask, Wii Sports, Mario Kart Wii, The Elder Scrolls 4: Oblivion

That's almost a quarter of the bracket, which speaks to how smart people were in nominating and how smart Allen was in setting all this up.

Last but not least...

The Ultimate Loser!™ = Resident Evil 5!

Majora's Mask \> Brawl \> Fallout 3 \> Metroid Prime \> Half-Life 2 \> God of War \> Tales of Symphonia \> Resident Evil 5

No need for sympathy here, since RE5 will go down as the most impressive Ultimate Loser™ ever. None of the matches in that chain went above 55-45 and RE5 was in the top quarter of the raw x-stats.

See you all next contest! Hope you enjoyed this season's edition of the Post-Contest Analysis!

## 2010 Contest - Useful Articles

- Board 8's Fall 2010 Nominations
- Fall 2010 Vote-In Polls
- Fall 2010 Odds to Win
- 2010 Fall Contest Matches - detailed write-ups on every '10 Fall Contest poll
- Most Surprising Results of Fall 2010
- Most Impressive Performances of Fall 2010

## Bracket

<table border="1" width="100%" class="genrebox">
<tr>
<td colspan="8">

Contest Bracket

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="columncolor2" colspan="4">

North Division

</td>
<td rowspan="9">

Fallout 3 Halo: Combat Evolved

</td>
<td rowspan="18">

Fallout 3 Metroid Prime

</td>
<td rowspan="36">

Fallout 3 Smash Bros. Brawl

</td>
<td rowspan="80">

Smash Bros. Brawl **ZELDA: MAJORA'S MASK**

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(1\) Fallout 3 (16) inFamous

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Fallout 3 Deus Ex

</td>
<td rowspan="4">

Fallout 3 Batman: Arkham Asylum

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(8\) Rock Band 2 (9) Deus Ex

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(5\) Batman: Arkham Asylum (12) Psychonauts

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Batman: Arkham Asylum Team Fortress 2

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(4\) Team Fortress 2 (13) Fable

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(3\) Uncharted 2: Among Thieves (14) The Legend of Dragoon

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Uncharted 2 Street Fighter IV

</td>
<td rowspan="4">

Uncharted 2 Halo: Combat Evolved

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(6\) Sonic Adventure 2 (11) Street Fighter IV

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(7\) Halo 3 (10) Super Mario Sunshine

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Halo 3 Halo: Combat Evolved

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(2\) Halo: Combat Evolved (15) Ninja Gaiden

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="columncolor2" colspan="4">

Northeast Division

</td>
<td rowspan="9">

Metroid Prime Half-Life 2

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(1\) Metroid Prime (16) Star Ocean: Till the End of Time

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Metroid Prime Devil May Cry 3

</td>
<td rowspan="4">

Metroid Prime Okami

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(8\) Mother 3 (9) Devil May Cry 3: Dante's Awakening

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(5\) Demon's Souls (12) Mega Man 9

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Mega Man 9 Okami

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(4\) Okami (13) No More Heroes

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(3\) Tales of Symphonia (14) Resident Evil 5

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Tales of Symphonia God of War

</td>
<td rowspan="4">

God of War Half-Life 2

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(6\) God of War (11) Left 4 Dead

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(7\) LittleBigPlanet (10) Grand Theft Auto III

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Grand Theft Auto III Half-Life 2

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(2\) Half-Life 2 (15) Left 4 Dead 2

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="columncolor2" colspan="4">

East Division

</td>
<td rowspan="9">

Smash Bros. Melee Smash Bros. Brawl

</td>
<td rowspan="18">

Smash Bros. Brawl Zelda: Twilight Princess

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(1\) Super Smash Bros. Melee (16) Guitar Hero II

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Smash Bros. Melee Morrowind

</td>
<td rowspan="4">

Smash Bros. Melee Call of Duty 4

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(8\) Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos (9) The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(5\) Perfect Dark (12) Conker's Bad Fur Day

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Perfect Dark Call of Duty 4

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(4\) Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (13) Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(3\) Pokémon Diamond/Pearl/Platinum (14) Metroid Fusion

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Pokémon DPP Fire Emblem: Path

</td>
<td rowspan="4">

Pokémon DPP Smash Bros. Brawl

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(6\) WWF No Mercy (11) Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(7\) Valkyria Chronicles (10) Disgaea: Hour of Darkness

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Valkyria Chronicles Smash Bros. Brawl

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(2\) Super Smash Bros. Brawl (15) Mario Kart DS

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="columncolor2" colspan="4">

Southeast Division

</td>
<td rowspan="9">

Zelda: Twilight Princess Kingdom Hearts II

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(1\) Super Mario Galaxy (16) Beyond Good & Evil

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Super Mario Galaxy Pokémon RSE

</td>
<td rowspan="4">

Super Mario Galaxy Zelda: Twilight Princess

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(8\) Pokémon Ruby/Sapphire/Emerald (9) Grand Theft Auto IV

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(5\) Dragon Age: Origins (12) F-Zero GX

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Dragon Age: Origins Zelda: Twilight Princess

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(4\) The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (13) Shenmue

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(3\) BioShock (14) Star Wars: Battlefront II

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

BioShock Kingdom Hearts II

</td>
<td rowspan="4">

Kingdom Hearts II Kingdom Hearts

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(6\) Kingdom Hearts II (11) Halo 2

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(7\) Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (10) Dissidia: Final Fantasy

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Modern Warfare 2 Kingdom Hearts

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(2\) Kingdom Hearts (15) Castlevania: Dawn of Sorrow

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="columncolor2" colspan="4">

South Division

</td>
<td rowspan="9">

Final Fantasy X Final Fantasy IX

</td>
<td rowspan="18">

Final Fantasy X Resident Evil 4

</td>
<td rowspan="40">

Final Fantasy X Zelda: Majora's Mask

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(1\) Final Fantasy X (16) Viewtiful Joe

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Final Fantasy X Borderlands

</td>
<td rowspan="4">

Final Fantasy X Golden Sun

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(8\) Tales of Vesperia (9) Borderlands

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(5\) Golden Sun (12) Ratchet & Clank: Up Your Arsenal

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Golden Sun GTA: San Andreas

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(4\) Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (13) Dead Space

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(3\) Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic (14) Devil May Cry

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Star Wars: KotOR Fire Emblem

</td>
<td rowspan="4">

Star Wars: KotOR Final Fantasy IX

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(6\) Fire Emblem (11) Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 2

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(7\) Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 3 (10) Civilization IV

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Persona 3 Final Fantasy IX

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(2\) Final Fantasy IX (15) Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trials and Tribulations

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="columncolor2" colspan="4">

Southwest Division

</td>
<td rowspan="9">

Resident Evil 4 Portal

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(1\) Resident Evil 4 (16) Jet Grind Radio

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Resident Evil 4 GTA: Vice City

</td>
<td rowspan="4">

Resident Evil 4 Persona 4

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(8\) Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (9) Silent Hill 2

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(5\) The World Ends With You (12) Dead Rising

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Dead Rising Persona 4

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(4\) Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4 (13) Braid

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(3\) Portal (14) Gears of War 2

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Portal Final Fantasy XII

</td>
<td rowspan="4">

Portal Mass Effect

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(6\) Final Fantasy XII (11) Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(7\) Skies of Arcadia (10) Baldur's Gate II: Shadows of Amn

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Skies of Arcadia Mass Effect

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(2\) Mass Effect (15) Plants vs. Zombies

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="columncolor2" colspan="4">

West Division

</td>
<td rowspan="9">

Metal Gear Solid 3 Shadow of the Colossus

</td>
<td rowspan="18">

Metal Gear Solid 3 Zelda: Majora's Mask

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(1\) Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater (16) TimeSplitters 2

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Metal Gear Solid 3 Marvel vs. Capcom 2

</td>
<td rowspan="4">

Metal Gear Solid 3 Paper Mario

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(8\) Marvel vs. Capcom 2 (9) New Super Mario Bros. Wii

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(5\) Paper Mario (12) Katamari Damacy

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Paper Mario World of Warcraft

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(4\) World of Warcraft (13) Animal Crossing

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(3\) Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (14) Assassin's Creed

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Metal Gear Solid 4 Diablo II

</td>
<td rowspan="4">

Metal Gear Solid 4 Shadow of the Colossus

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(6\) Diablo II (11) Eternal Darkness: Sanity's Requiem

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(7\) Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty (10) Banjo-Tooie

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Metal Gear Solid 2 Shadow of the Colossus

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(2\) Shadow of the Colossus (15) The Sims

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="columncolor2" colspan="4">

Northwest Division

</td>
<td rowspan="9">

Zelda: Majora's Mask Zelda: Wind Waker

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(1\) The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask (16) Wii Sports

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Zelda: Majora's Mask Chrono Cross

</td>
<td rowspan="4">

Zelda: Majora's Mask Pokémon GSC

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(8\) Chrono Cross (9) Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(5\) Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney (12) Mario Kart Wii

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Mario Kart Wii Pokémon GSC

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(4\) Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal (13) Advance Wars

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(3\) The Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker (14) God of War II

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Zelda: Wind Waker Assassin's Creed II

</td>
<td rowspan="4">

Zelda: Wind Waker Oblivion

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(6\) Assassin's Creed II (11) ICO

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(7\) Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door (10) Gears of War

</td>
<td rowspan="2">

Paper Mario: TTYD Oblivion

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>

\(2\) The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion (15) SoulCalibur II

</td>
</tr>
</table>

## Trivia

- Coming soon

## See Also

- [Final Fall 2010 Standings & Stats](https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/features/gotd)
- Fall 2010 Total Nominations
- Board 8's Fall 2010 Nominations

---

## (1)Fallout 3 vs (16)inFamous 2010

_source: (1)Fallout 3 vs (16)inFamous 2010 (revid 69144)_

## Results

**Round One**

Wednesday, October 20th, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** North Division
- **Match \#:** 1
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, October 20th, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 25565
- **Oracle Expectations:** Fallout 3 - 73.68% 125 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Fallout 3 - 93.66%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked - 697 Fallout 3 - 18074 inFamous - 1149

Normally for the first writeup, you get the old rant about how Nintendo is always in the first match rolling heads. That's because it's always been true, even in gimmick formats. The lone exception was Wario finishing in second place in the 2008 4-way, but that still counts as a win. This was the first contest where Nintendo was nowhere to be found in the opening match, and it would take a few days before we saw any Nintendo at all.

Even still, this was a total slaughter for a non-Nintendo feeling-out match. Fallout proved itself legit from the very first day, with the only real concern being how it's not a good vote draw. Percentages didn't move much here, and ending at 81% on the nose meant a perfect Oracle prediction during the very first match.

We also got to laugh at the 697 jokers who banked on the very first match. Seriously, what in the F? Also for what it's worth, the entire first round being box art match pics kept things fair.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4069&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=1)

• **No Previous Match**       • **Next Match**

---

## (8)Rock Band 2 vs (9)Deus Ex 2010

_source: (8)Rock Band 2 vs (9)Deus Ex 2010 (revid 69146)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** North
- **Match \#:** 2
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, October 20, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 752
- **Oracle Expectations:** Deus Ex - 39.60% 4 for - 123 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Deus Ex - 36.61%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 1063 Rock Band 2: 11447 Deus Ex: 5957

One day. It took only one, specifically 12 hours, for everyone to start with their cries of THIS CONTEST. Conventional wisdom went out the window 5 minutes into the second match when Deus Ex made it clear it would make a game of a match widely expected to go in Rock Band's direction shortly after the release of Rock Band 3. Then the 10 minute update hit, the match became a boat race and once again we were struck by the Second Match Jinx. This joined the ranks of Morrigan \> Spyro, Ness \> CJ, KOS-MOS \> Diablo/Arthas, Zidane \> Shadow and Alucard \> Magus as matches that just totally tripped people up. There's a couple other low prediction matches in there like Fox \> Pikachu and Sigma \> Andross, but the board was actually on the right side of those so I won't count them.

The final score seems close, but it really wasn't a close match. Deus Ex had a 1000 vote lead in a couple hours, but only barely lost the ASV. This led to Rock Band shaving votes for the rest of the match but never really making a game of it, hence the final margin being a comfortable 752.

But don't tell that to Deus Ex's fans, who deserve a Turkey Fanbase of the Contest award for how they handled themselves here. Even though Deus Ex was winning, a ton of topics got made by Deus Ex fans about how it wasn't winning by enough. There wasn't such a whiny fanbase of winners before or since, and hopefully we never see it again. That was embarrassing. What actually happened here were outsiders voting, seeing a close match and being disappointed by the margin without looking up the trends. So I can see how one could get worried or something, but it's really not hard to look around for 30 seconds and see what's going on. They got made fun of for the rest of the contest after this stunt, deservedly so.

There was a bigger meaning here, of course, which is the rhythm game fad being over and done with. The games were all going to be weak anyway, but it's nice to see a match where the site moves past them for good. Given how the Guitar Hero series was ruined and Rock Band fans are some of the most pretentious people in all of gaming, it was a welcome death knell and a well-deserved loss. And no, I'm not an anti-rhythm game person. I'm an anti-annoying people person who hates having to sing on Rock Band at every single party because of my having a good singing voice. Seriously people, can we play something else? \>\_\>

<strong>From: -Tofa7- \| \#038</strong> Might be worth mentioning that the fact Deus Ex won was almost solely because of Europe: <http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4070&region=EUR> Because Rock Band took a such a long time to be released there, and sold like crap. The PS2 version was released almost a whole year in Europe after the North American release.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4070&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=2)

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---

## (5)Batman: Arkham Asylum vs (12)Psychonauts 2010

_source: (5)Batman: Arkham Asylum vs (12)Psychonauts 2010 (revid 69147)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Thursday, October 21, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** North
- **Match \#:** 3
- **Match Date:** Thursday, October 21, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 17,888
- **Oracle Expectations:** Batman: Arkham Asylum - 73.17% 130 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Batman: Arkham Asylum - 84.80%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 686 Batman: Arkham Asylum: 16341 Psychonauts: 2190

Matches like this really make you appreciate the 12 hour format. Batman was at 72.XX% for all but 10 minutes during this match. Can you imagine being stuck with 24 hours of this crap? Batman would end up proving itself quite legit this contest, though it was impossible to tell here. Everyone knew Psychonauts would be pathetically weak, and it was. You couldn't even make a guess about the potential Team Fortress 2 \> Batman upset, since it's hard to imagine TF2 not scoring a similar blowout here.

The only interesting thing here was MWE making a topic about how Batman deserves to lose everything because of a certain comic strip that hits a bit too close to home for him. You know your match is bad when MWE is the most interesting thing about it, though granted he was warned for the topic so it's not like the match was a total loss.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4071&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=3)

• **Previous Match**       • **Next Match**

---

## (4)Team Fortress 2 vs (13)Fable 2010

_source: (4)Team Fortress 2 vs (13)Fable 2010 (revid 76614)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Thursday, October 21, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** North
- **Match \#:** 4
- **Match Date:** Thursday, October 21, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 37
- **Oracle Expectations:** Team Fortress 2 - 56.37% 126 for - 4 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Team Fortress 2 - 61.39%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 874 Team Fortress 2: 11762 Fable: 6201

On the second day of this contest, one day after a real big one with Deus Ex upsetting Rock Band 2, we had a match that just blew everything out of the water. Team Fortress 2's 37 vote win over Fable was an all-timer marred only by how meaningless the match was and how early the match happened in the contest. As I write this, Majora's Mask is finishing up an outstanding comeback/upset over Final Fantasy X. TF2 holding on here was nice, but in the end it was a one point match. This would have meant much more if each game came in with a head of steam or something. Just to put this in perspective, Majora upsetting FFX was worth 32 points.

That said, what a freaking outstanding match this was. Team Fortress 2 had a tiny lead early, Fable erased it and we were off to a complete war of attrition. The old record for closest wire-to-wire match was Frog vs Liquid Snake way back in 2004, where neither character led by more than 460. That record would get shattered here. It didn't take long for the match to become a deadlock, but this is actually where Fable went wrong.

GameFAQs doesn't like Fable much, which was its first mistake. Molyneux sucks at making games, but Fable got by on this site due to being an RPG. It's all over the match picture, too. But the more pressing issue here is Team Fortress 2's fanbase and bracket supporters were never going to let it lose a close match. Fable needed to blow it out to win this, and it couldn't do it. So what ended up happening for a solid 12 hours was one game building a minor lead and the other coming back super quickly. It was like the 5 minute updates version of Chrono Trigger vs Link to the Past from 2004. Alec was nice enough to track most of it:

12:05 TF2 leads by 40 (TF2 +40)

12:10 TF2 leads by 14 (Fable +26)

LEAD CHANGE \#1

12:15 Fable leads by 16 (Fable +30)

LEAD CHANGE \#2

12:20 TF2 leads by 28 (TF2 +44)

12:25 TF2 leads by 8 (Fable +20)

12:30 TF2 leads by 31 (TF2 +23)

12:35 TF2 leads by 35 (TF2 +4)

LEAD CHANGE \#3

12:40 Fable leads by 11 (Fable +46)

12:45 Fable leads by 23 (Fable +12)

12:50 Fable leads by 26 (Fable +3)

LEAD CHANGE \#4

12:55 TF2 leads by 3 (TF2 +29)

LEAD CHANGE \#5

1:00 Fable leads by 32 (Fable +35)

1:05 Fable leads by 29 (TF2 +3)

1:10 Fable leads by 21 (TF2 +8)

1:15 Fable leads by 10 (TF2 +11)

LEAD CHANGE \#6

1:20 TF2 leads by 21 (TF2 +31)

1:25 TF2 leads by 36 (TF2 +15)

1:30 TF2 leads by 66 (TF2 +30)

1:35 TF2 leads by 40 (Fable +26)

1:40 TF2 leads by 91 (TF2 +51)

1:45 TF2 leads by 115 (TF2 +24)

1:50 TF2 leads by 66 (Fable +49)

1:55 TF2 leads by 15 (Fable +51)

LEAD CHANGE \#7

1:00 Fable leads by 16 (Fable +31)

2:05 Fable leads by 27 (Fable +11)

2:10 Fable leads by 36 (Fable + 9)

2:15 Fable leads by 20 (TF2 +16)

2:20 Fable leads by 29 (Fable +9)

2:25 Fable leads by 31 (Fable +2)

2:30 Fable leads by 27 (TF2 +4)

LEAD CHANGE \#8

2:35 TF2 leads by 8 (TF2 +35)

LEAD CHANGE \#9

2:40 Fable leads by 13 (Fable +21)

2:45 Fable leads by 4 (TF2 +9)

2:50 Fable leads by 12 (Fable +8)

2:55 Fable leads by 10 (TF2 +2)

LEAD CHANGE \#10

3:00 TF2 leads by 22 (TF2 +32)

3:05 TF2 leads by 40 (TF2 +18)

3:10 TF2 leads by 28 (Fable +12)

3:15 TF2 leads by 38 (TF2 +10)

3:20 TF2 leads by 61 (TF2 +23)

3:25 TF2 leads by 43 (Fable +18)

3:30 TF2 leads by 39 (Fable +4)

3:35 TF2 leads by 20 (Fable +19)

3:40 TF2 leads by 38 (TF2 +18)

3:45 TF2 leads by 32 (Fable +6)

3:50 TF2 leads by 35 votes (TF2 +3)

3:55 TF2 leads by 38 votes (TF2 +3)

4:00 TF2 leads by 35 votes (Fable +3)

4:05 TF2 leads by 39 votes (TF2 +4)

4:10 TF2 leads by 50 votes (TF2 +11)

4:15 TF2 leads by 57 votes (TF2 +7)

4:20 TF2 leads by 55 votes (Fable +2)

4:25 TF2 leads by 31 votes (Fable +24)

4:30 TF2 leads by 59 votes (TF2 +28)

4:35 TF2 leads by 17 votes (Fable +42)

4:40 TF2 leads by 23 votes (TF2 +6)

4:45 TF2 leads by 29 votes (TF2 +6)

4:50 TF2 leads by 15 votes (Fable +14)

4:55 TF2 leads by 21 votes (TF2 +6)

5:00 TF2 leads by 38 votes (TF2 +17)

5:05 TF2 leads by 37 votes (Fable +1)

5:10 TF2 leads by 36 votes (Fable +1)

LEAD CHANGE \#11

5:15 Fable leads by 17 votes (Fable +53)

5:20 Fable leads by 11 votes (TF2 +6)

LEAD CHANGE \#12

5:25 TF2 leads by 15 votes (TF2 +26)

5:30 TF2 leads by 61 votes (TF2 +46)

5:35 TF2 leads by 78 votes (TF2 +17)

5:40 TF2 leads by 104 votes (TF2 +26)

5:45 TF2 leads by 90 votes (Fable +14)

5:50 TF2 leads by 75 votes (Fable +15)

5:55 TF2 leads by 22 votes (Fable +53)

6:00 TF2 leads by 43 votes (TF2 +21)

6:05 TF2 leads by 30 votes (Fable +13)

6:10 TF2 leads by 13 votes (Fable +17)

6:15 TF2 leads by 41 votes (TF2 +28)

6:20 TF2 leads by 10 votes (Fable +31)

6:25 TF2 leads by 1 votes (Fable +9)

LEAD CHANGE \#13

6:30 Fable leads by 2 votes (Fable +3)

LEAD CHANGE \#14

6:35 TF2 leads by 55 votes (TF2 +57)

6:40 TF2 leads by 114 votes (TF2 +59)

6:45 TF2 leads by 115 votes (TF2 +1)

6:50 TF2 leads by 118 votes (TF2 +3)

6:55 TF2 leads by 141 votes (TF2 +23)

7:00 TF2 leads by 175 votes (TF2 +34)

7:05 TF2 leads by 177 votes (TF2 +2)

7:10 TF2 leads by 210 (TF2 +33)

7:15 TF2 leads by 189 votes (Fable +21)

7:20 TF2 leads by 175 votes (Fable +14)

7:25 TF2 leads by 161 votes (Fable +14)

7:30 TF2 leads by 162 votes (TF2 +1)

7:35 TF2 leads by 163 votes (TF2 +1)

7:40 TF2 leads by 154 votes (Fable +9)

7:45 TF2 leads by 140 (Fable +14)

7:50 TF2 leads by 138 (Fable +2)

7:55 TF2 leads by 112 (Fable +26)

8:00 TF2 leads by 107 (Fable +5)

8:05 TF2 leads by 117 (TF2 +10)

8:10 TF2 leads by 121 (TF2 +4)

8:15 TF2 leads by 90 (Fable +31)

8:20 TF2 leads by 84 (Fable +6)

8:25 TF2 leads by 95 (TF2 +11)

8:30 TF2 leads by 108 (TF2 +13)

8:35 TF2 leads by 97 (Fable +11)

8:40 TF2 leads by 65 (Fable +32)

8:45 TF2 leads by 56 (Fable +9)

8:50 TF2 leads by 43 (Fable +13)

8:55 TF2 leads by 37 (Fable +6)

LEAD CHANGE \#15

9:00 Fable leads by 1 (Fable +38)

LEAD CHANGE \#16

9:05 TF2 leads by 16 (TF2 +17)

9:10 TF2 leads by 13 (Fable +3)

9:15 TF2 leads by 20 (TF2 +7)

9:20 TF2 leads by 15 (Fable +5)

9:25 TF2 leads by 24 (TF2 +9)

9:30 TF2 leads by 23 (Fable +1)

9:35 TF2 leads by 45 (TF2 +22)

9:40 TF2 leads by 43 (Fable +2)

9:45 TF2 leads by 13 (Fable +30)

9:50 TF2 leads by 14 (TF2 +1)

9:55 TF2 leads by 23 (TF2 +9)

LEAD CHANGE \#17

10:00 Fable leads by 15 (Fable +38)

LEAD CHANGE \#18

10:05 TF2 leads by 1 (TF2 +16)

10:10 TF2 leads by 33 (TF2 +32)

10:15 TF2 leads by 47 (TF2 +14)

10:20 TF2 leads by 29 (Fable +18)

10:25 TF2 leads by 5 (Fable +24)

10:30 TF2 leads by 14 (TF2 +9)

10:35 TF2 leads by 33 (TF2 +19)

10:40 TF2 leads by 42 (TF2 +9)

10:45 TF2 leads by 15 (Fable +27)

10:50 TF2 leads by 12 (Fable +3)

LEAD CHANGE \#19

10:55 Fable leads by 11 (Fable +23)

LEAD CHANGE \#20

11:00 TF2 leads by 29 (TF2 +40)

11:05 TF2 leads by 57 (TF2 +28)

11:10 TF2 leads by 77 (TF2 +20)

11:15 TF2 leads by 92 (TF2 +15)

11:20 TF2 leads by 88 (Fable +4)

11:25 TF2 leads by 84 (Fable +4)

11:30 TF2 leads by 89 (TF2 +5)

11:35 TF2 leads by 65 (Fable +24)

11:40 TF2 leads by 69 (TF2 +4)

11:45 TF2 leads by 70 (TF2 +1)

11:50 TF2 leads by 50 (Fable +19)

11:55 TF2 leads by 14 (Fable +37)

12:00 TF2 wins by 37 (TF2 +23)

Team Fortress 2 actually ended up winning the ASV almost every single hour, including building up a peak lead of 210 at one point to shatter Frog's record, but Fable would come back every single time. With 90 minutes left the two games were a measly 5 votes apart, and this is about when the TF2 fanbase kicked into action. They got this thing up to 92 with only 40 minutes left, and kept their foot on the gas until match's end. Fable made one final comeback attempt, but obviously it fell short. Most games struggle to get 100 votes in the final hour of a poll. Both of these games were pulling 150s out of their ass in an attempt to out-rally the other.

For all we know Fable is the stronger game neutrally, but there was no possible way TF2 was losing this match close. Not with that fanbase. I want to feel bad for how Fable lost this match, but then I think back to Thanksgiving, where my father in law was playing Fable 3 and farting in people's faces all over the kingdom, and realize the correct game won this match. You can have a legitimately good, fun game with funny characters winning, or you can have a series that resorts to toilet humor winning. For this match, GameFAQs made the right choice.

## Graphs of Alec's Update Charts

- Chart of Lead: <https://archive.is/20131106012111/img213.imageshack.us/img213/935/tf2lead.jpg>
- Chart of Updates: <https://archive.is/20131106012036/img638.imageshack.us/img638/8080/tf2up.jpg>

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4072&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=4)

• **Previous Match**       • **Next Match**

---

## (3)Uncharted 2: Among Thieves vs (14)The Legend of Dragoon 2010

_source: (3)Uncharted 2: Among Thieves vs (14)The Legend of Dragoon 2010 (revid 69149)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Friday, October 22, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** North
- **Match \#:** 5
- **Match Date:** Friday, October 22, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 6,040
- **Oracle Expectations:** Uncharted 2: Among Thieves - 62.70% 127 for - 4 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Uncharted 2: Among Thieves - 83.11%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 768 Uncharted 2: Among Thieves: 16341 The Legend of Dragoon: 2526

Not many games can look good in scoring 42% in a match, but The Legend of Dragoon looked good here. Once it won its vote-in poll, people questioned its authenticity. It came out here and proved how legit it was, even though it was never really a match. I'm not sure why people have a hard time believing in Dragoon when it was marketed as an FF killer and we're on a site that caters to RPG fans and gamers filled with nostalgia.

Despite this, Uncharted 2 didn't come off looking so bad unless you were one of the people not believing in Dragoon. Uncharted was favored to win 3 matches in this contest going in, and this match did nothing to ruin this expectation. It ended up being a fairly boring match percentage-wise, as it got stabilized quickly and stayed in the 57-43 range most of the way. Uncharted went down a little overnight and in the morning, suggesting it's a night game, but nothing happened here that would have suggested Uncharted was in any major trouble. It was Halo winning twice that screwed it, not its own strength.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4073&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=5)

• **Previous Match**       • **Next Match**

---

## (6)Sonic Adventure 2 vs (11)Street Fighter IV 2010

_source: (6)Sonic Adventure 2 vs (11)Street Fighter IV 2010 (revid 69150)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Friday, October 22, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** North
- **Match \#:** 6
- **Match Date:** Friday, October 22, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 808
- **Oracle Expectations:** Street Fighter IV - 47.42% 24 for - 107 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Street Fighter IV - 70.70%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 1351 Sonic Adventure 2: 5325 Street Fighter IV: 11840

This was the third day match in a row that was super close or just plain weird. However unlike the first two where prediction percentages were either really low or the guru ended up winning, Street Fighter's "upset" of Sonic was a true guru buster along the lines of "Why do I ever listen to Board 8 when making my bracket?".

The case for Sonic was simple. Sonic beat Street Fighter multiple times in 2009, and got Street Fighter 1 on 1 in a day match. Sonic is awesome during the day, and even Board 8's (S)SF4 fans like me were lamenting this. Street Fighter also has a history of embarrassing itself in game contests, from Street Fighter 2's famous loss in 2004 to Sonic beating it up in 2009 to Street Fighter 4 itself almost losing to Persona 4 in a LOL 4-way.

That's, as Chris Berman could say, why they play the games.

This wasn't even a match within 10 minutes, as Street Fighter 4 taking an early lead during the day on Sonic meant some very bad things. It would increase the lead all the way until the ASV, where it would then barely lose the ASV before the match turned into an ~800 vote stall the rest of the way. It was a great win for Street Fighter, and long overdue redemption for all those clowns who thought Persona 4 barely losing out to SF4 for third place in some meaningless LOL 4-way meant anything, but this was a terrible loss for Sonic.

This was a day match. 3D Sonic or not, it was supposed to cruise to an easy win here. This was also Street Fighter, of "WTF SF2 LOST?!" fame. This match going the way it did during the time frame it did was wholly backwards, and it was a true referendum on 3D Sonic. Amaterasu beating Shadow last year should have been enough of a hint, but this match proves once and for all GameFAQs' legit hate for all things 3D Sonic. even the so-called good 3D Sonic games will never do anything here.

And for (S)SF4 fans like me, we've never been happier to lose a point. It's the best game in this bracket other than Melee and Fire Emblem 9, and it's nice seeing it get some respect. Even today we have SSF4 jam sessions on Board 8, so the game won't go away any time soon.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4074&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=6)

• **Previous Match**       • **Next Match**

---

## (7)Halo 3 vs (10)Super Mario Sunshine 2010

_source: (7)Halo 3 vs (10)Super Mario Sunshine 2010 (revid 69151)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Saturday, October 23, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** North
- **Match \#:** 7
- **Match Date:** Saturday, October 23, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 2,161
- **Oracle Expectations:** Halo 3 - 49.09% 47 for - 85 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Halo 3 - 81.29%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 924 Halo 3: 16489 Super Mario Sunshine: 2752

I will never for the life of me understand why people bought yoblazer's podcast rant and favored Sunshine to not only win this match, but win THREE matches this contest.

I mean I know why given the guy's gotten second place three times or something, but this was still strange. The case was decent enough, with the site hating Halo and Sunshine being the first Nintendo entrant people could vote on.

All good points. One problem, though: Super Mario Sunshine f\*\*\*ing sucked as a game. GameFAQs agrees, too. Seriously, look at these polls:

<http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=931>

<http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1010>

<http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1025>

<http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1087>

<http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1128>

<http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1181>

<http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1590>

<http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3579>

There was no way that nonsense was winning three matches. Thankfully the whole affair slash hype train ended within 10 minutes, as Halo weathered the early joke votes and went on the embarrass Mario for 12 straight hours. For a series that's been embarrassed year in, year out since 2004, it was nice finally seeing Halo have a good contest and it all began right here.

Sure the match was close in percents, but this was one of the only matches ever where the loser scored over 47% and still looked like complete crap. I know most of us had a bad contest with picking stuff, but... Sunshine winning three matches was the guru favorite, seriously? I'm sure there's some silver lining here with Sunshine being so bad and still getting so close, but it didn't deserve nearly the hype it got.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4075&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=7)

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---

## (2)Halo: Combat Evolved vs (15)Ninja Gaiden 2010

_source: (2)Halo: Combat Evolved vs (15)Ninja Gaiden 2010 (revid 69152)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Saturday, October 23, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** North
- **Match \#:** 8
- **Match Date:** Saturday, October 23, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 14,704
- **Oracle Expectations:** Halo: Combat Evolved - 60.02% 129 for - 4 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Halo: Combat Evolved - 80.34%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 702 Halo: Combat Evolved: 16367 Ninja Gaiden: 2896

"Welcome to HaloFAQs."

Given how hilarious the Ryu Hayabusa \> Master Chief upset was last year, of course Allen was going to set this match up and try to catch lightning in a bottle twice once Ninja Gaiden got through its vote-in. However, games =/= characters. The match was surprisingly uneventful given past fireworks, and stayed remarkably consistent even though it was Halo during a day match.

The one thing to pull from this is more people had Halo 3 \> Sunshine in both battle and bracket than Halo 1 \> Ninja Gaiden. This meant a full 24 hours of gurus looking foolish for hyping that Sunshine-to-win-thrice crap instead of the standard 12. I can understand almost every other thing the gurus did this contest, but I just cannot wrap my mind around having faith in Super Mario Sunshine, the game that all but killed the Mario series.

This match obviously set up Halo 3 vs Halo 1, which was one of roughly 100 matches used to gauge the Brawl vs Melee showdown.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4076&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=8)

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---

## (1)Metroid Prime vs (16)Star Ocean: Till the End of Time 2010

_source: (1)Metroid Prime vs (16)Star Ocean: Till the End of Time 2010 (revid 69153)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Sunday, October 24, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northeast
- **Match \#:** 9
- **Match Date:** Sunday, October 24, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 19,341
- **Oracle Expectations:** Metroid Prime - 72.51% 128 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Metroid Prime - 92.44%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 540 Metroid Prime: 18526 Star Ocean: Till the End of Time: 1471

Star Ocean 3 was so forgettable that I forgot it even made the contest when doing the vote-in writeups. Not that it meant much, since the reward was getting completely killed by Metroid Prime. This was actually a night match, and Metroid always has an outstanding board vote. This was over 80% for a time and fell down to 73. Imagine if this were a day match.

It was a nice beginning to a fairly relaxing Northeast Division, after the total chaos that was the North. Everyone knew this was coming down to Metroid Prime vs the Half-Life 2/God of War winner, with an outside chance of another game from the bottom half sneaking in there. But overall, this was nothing compared to people actually thinking Super Mario Sunshine was going to win three matches and perhaps challenge Fallout 3.

Metroid Prime got to fire the first shot, and it had the advantage of getting the divisional final as a day match. The bottom-half games had quite the task ahead of them.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4077&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=9)

• **Previous Match**       • **Next Match**

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## (8)Mother 3 vs (9)Devil May Cry 3: Dante's Awakening 2010

_source: (8)Mother 3 vs (9)Devil May Cry 3: Dante's Awakening 2010 (revid 69154)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Sunday, October 24, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northeast
- **Match \#:** 10
- **Match Date:** Sunday, October 24, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 15,634
- **Oracle Expectations:** Devil May Cry 3: Dante's Awakening - 77.29% 129 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Devil May Cry 3: Dante's Awakening - 78.07%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 1398 Mother 3: 3346 Devil May Cry 3: Dante's Awakening: 13605

Look at that god-awful match picture, look at how Mother 3 was never released in the USA, then look at this match and tell me how any of this makes a damn of sense. Sure DMC3 won with ease, but this was a match where people were picking it to win with 70, 80, even 90%. The fact DMC3 started off at 65% and stayed there for a solid 12 hours shows it's weak. Mother 3 was never going to win this match and Devil May Cry 3 was never going to lose it, but these percentages are nowhere close to where people expected them.

I'm not sure what the Oracle consensus here was, but only 13 people out of 128 picked DMC3 to finish under 70%. That should give you an idea of how weird this all was. DMC3 would go on to its expected loss against Prime, but this match made it one of the contest's turkeys.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4078&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=10)

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---

## (5)Demon's Souls vs (12)Mega Man 9 2010

_source: (5)Demon's Souls vs (12)Mega Man 9 2010 (revid 69155)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Monday, October 25, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northeast
- **Match \#:** 11
- **Match Date:** Monday, October 25, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 2,313
- **Oracle Expectations:** Mega Man 9 - 51.55% 83 for - 46 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Mega Man 9 - 54.91%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 1214 Demon's Souls: 8601 Mega Man 9: 9811

According to the battle stats, this was the first true tossup of the contest. The prediction percentage ended up close to 50%, too. Where Mega Man 9 was massively favored was in the guru and Oracle, both of which favored Mega Man 9 by a considerable amount. There was no real rhyme or reason behind which game should be favored, since both were bound to be weak and both came in untested. The only real argument that stuck was Mega Man franchise voting and the Mario Kart vs Mega Man match from the series contest, and it stuck on the board long enough to make MM9 the favorite here.

Both sides acted like they had sand in the crotch leading up to this match, so it was one of those matches where you wanted it to get here and get out of the way as early as possible. Thankfully, it was all over in minutes. Mega Man 9 stormed out to an early lead, and all Demon's Souls could really do was crawl back in percentage all night and into the morning. It did well in getting back up to 47% before match's end, but this was never in doubt.

It would have been awesome for Black Turtle to win the guru by a scant 1 point so he could feel happiest about this match, but it was not to be. The 12 \> 5 upset here was also the biggest seeding upset we'd see in round 1. All the seed 1 through 4 held serve.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4079&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=11)

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---

## (4)Okami vs (13)No More Heroes 2010

_source: (4)Okami vs (13)No More Heroes 2010 (revid 69156)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Monday, October 25, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northeast
- **Match \#:** 12
- **Match Date:** Monday, October 25, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 21,082
- **Oracle Expectations:** Okami - 62.61% 130 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Okami - 74.60%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 932 Okami: 14803 No More Heroes: 4117

Very boring match that went as-predicted on all fronts, but it's nice seeing Okami become so legit on GameFAQs.

Food for thought: Okami \> No More Heroes had a bigger spread than Zelda \> Travis Touchdown last year. I know Okami's legit and all, but Zelda (the character) looked completely off in 2010.

This match more or less shut down all hopes of a Mega Man 9 \> Okami upset, though Okami seems to inch up in strength every year. So by the year 2050 or so, Amaterasu could beat Link.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4080&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=12)

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---

## (3)Tales of Symphonia vs (14)Resident Evil 5 2010

_source: (3)Tales of Symphonia vs (14)Resident Evil 5 2010 (revid 69157)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northeast
- **Match \#:** 13
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, October 26, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 1,728
- **Oracle Expectations:** Tales of Symphonia - 52.40% 99 for - 31 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Tales of Symphonia - 43.87%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 769 Tales of Symphonia: 8770 Resident Evil 5: 11154

The reason for Wesker's sudden boost last year was fairly obvious, but this match went and proved it for good. Resident Evil 5, a 14 seed, was the bracket and battle favorite and was the lone game from the vote-in polls to do much of anything in the actual contest. However this is a site made for RPG fans, so Tales of Symphonia was able to never really be threatened here. One has to wonder how this would have gone in a day match, though.

Tales won in one of those "not as close as the percentages indicate" deals, and it kicked off a very entertaining bottom half of the bracket. Prime was a lock to make round 4 from the top, but the bottom half was filled with a bunch of games of similar strength. The only games that were guaranteed not to do anything were the two Left 4 Dead games. The other 6 -- Tales of Symphonia, Resident Evil 5, God of War, LittleBigPlanet, Grand Theft Auto 3 and Half-Life 2 -- could all have a case made for them where they could win three matches. And since Metroid Prime was always known for disappointing and Fallout 3 was an unknown commodity pre-contest, it wasn't far-fetched for the bottom half winner to possibly make a semifinal run. We all know now what happened, but pre-contest the semifinalist to come from these first two divisions was a pretty cool debate.

And then Tales/RE5 had a pretty good match to kick things off, and it's always nice when things live up to hype a bit.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4081&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=13)

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---

## (6)God of War vs (11)Left 4 Dead 2010

_source: (6)God of War vs (11)Left 4 Dead 2010 (revid 69158)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northeast
- **Match \#:** 14
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, October 26, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 15,471
- **Oracle Expectations:** God of War - 59.74% 126 for - 4 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** God of War - 78.69%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 647 God of War: 16288 Left 4 Dead: 3862

Though the bottom half of the Northeast was an outstanding division, nothing is perfect. And in this contest, both Left 4 Dead games stunk up the joint. God of War got it during the day, too, so the casual-heavy action game was able to perhaps do better than normal. Percentages stayed still all match, so there's really nothing entertaining that happened.

The only thing to really make of this is whether or not Tales of Symphonia had a chance at pulling the upset. Tales vs God of War was heavily debated, and it was a very important match given the winner had a decent chance at making a deep contest run. Tales ended up struggling with Resident Evil 5, while God of War went out and took care of business. This made God of War the slight favorite, with only the night match dynamic being what kept the match in question.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4082&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=14)

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---

## (7)LittleBigPlanet vs (10)Grand Theft Auto III 2010

_source: (7)LittleBigPlanet vs (10)Grand Theft Auto III 2010 (revid 69159)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northeast
- **Match \#:** 15
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, October 27, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 8,729
- **Oracle Expectations:** Grand Theft Auto III - 59.92% 122 for - 7 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Grand Theft Auto III - 65.06%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 900 LittleBigPlanet: 6985 Grand Theft Auto III: 12626

This match ended up fairly boring, but you really had to be there for the first few minutes. There were whispers of LittleBigPlanet having a shot at making a run this contest. And then come match time, Grand Theft Auto 3, from the series able to tank more than any other, comes out with over 70% of the vote. This bled all night and eventually fell to a stable 62%, but people were going nuts for those first few minutes with how legit GTA3 was and how badly LBP bombed and everything else. I'm telling you, the stats topic is worth it if only for the overreaction that comes at the beginning of every match. It's as predictable as it is ridiculous.

As for what happened when things calmed down, this basically cemented Half-Life 2 \> Grand Theft Auto unless HL2 went out the next match and completely s\*\*\* the bed. Slowly but surely, the contenders down in the bottom half of this division were picking themselves off. At this point, it was basically down to the Tales/GoW winner versus Half-Life 2. After the fast start, GTA3 did not impress.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4083&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=15)

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---

## (2)Half-Life 2 vs (15)Left 4 Dead 2 2010

_source: (2)Half-Life 2 vs (15)Left 4 Dead 2 2010 (revid 69160)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northeast
- **Match \#:** 16
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, October 27, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 23,512
- **Oracle Expectations:** Half-Life 2 - 71.11% 129 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Half-Life 2 - 82.86%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 490 Half-Life 2: 17383 Left 4 Dead 2: 3318

SFF match against a game not totally well-received or not, this was a very impressive performance by Half-Life 2. It was actually flirting with the high 70s for awhile, but got brought down to below a tripling by match's end. People more or less handed the division's bottom half to Half-Life 2 after this match and started trying to project Metroid Prime vs Half-Life 2 based on how Star Ocean 3 vs Left 4 Dead 2 would go and whether or not Left 4 Dead 2 resisted SFF enough to make Half-Life 2 the favorite even in a day match.

Yeah it's a lot of abbreviated nonsense, but these are the things Board 8 does during boring matches to keep itself entertained during contests. At least liking numbers a bit too much beats liking partying or illegal substances a bit too much, you know?

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4084&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=16)

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---

## (1)Super Smash Bros. Melee vs (16)Guitar Hero II 2010

_source: (1)Super Smash Bros. Melee vs (16)Guitar Hero II 2010 (revid 69161)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Thursday, October 28, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** East
- **Match \#:** 17
- **Match Date:** Thursday, October 28, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 30,246
- **Oracle Expectations:** Super Smash Bros. Melee - 81.81% 117 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Smash Bros. Melee - 90.66%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 406 Super Smash Bros. Melee: 19534 Guitar Hero II: 1797

With two divisions' first rounds in the books, we hadn't really seen a true godslaying performance yet. Then Melee came out with over 90% of the vote early on against Guitar Hero 2 and changed all that. Hilarious blowouts are always fun to watch, and this was no different. Melee came out looking like a champ, bled percentage for quite a while and still came out looking like a champ. Blowouts like this simply don't happen anymore. At least, we thought they didn't. It was one of the biggest blowouts in the history of our contests, and it was the first shot across the bow for the Melee vs Brawl war. It was also further proof that rhythm games are done here, assuming you thought the Deus Ex \> Rock Band match was a fluke.

The first two divisions were unpredictable in their own way, but the East was easy. Melee vs Brawl were going to crush everything in their way, meet in the divisional finals and the winner was going to have an outstanding chance at winning the entire contest. Nothing was going to get in the way of this.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4085&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=17)

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---

## (8)Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos vs (9)The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind 2010

_source: (8)Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos vs (9)The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind 2010 (revid 69162)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Thursday, October 28, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** East
- **Match \#:** 18
- **Match Date:** Thursday, October 28, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 456
- **Oracle Expectations:** The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind - 46.89% 21 for - 97 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind - 32.76%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 1842 Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos: 10144 The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind: 7068

Did you ever think you'd see the day where something related to Blizzard lost a close match? This match was weird, for a multitude of reasons.

Obviously, Board 8 massively favored Warcraft due to past success. The battle stats had it as a tossup, while brackets favored Warcraft. Everything went according to plan at the first freeze, too, what with Warcraft having 57% of the votes. It's almost impossible to come back from so low a percentage when you're losing by that much, but then Morrowind went and increased by 5% during the next update.

Warcraft 3 was hanging on by a tenuous thread from there, after about an hour it just snapped. It stayed there up by 100 for ages, and then Morrowind finally made a move. The games stayed deadlocked for awhile from there, but then Morrowind won the ASV to take the match. Sure the final margin was close, but it was clear Warcraft 3 wasn't going to do anything by the time the match was half over.

It was weird seeing a PC vs PC match go like this, and weirder still to see Morrowind pull the upset. But the weirdest thing of all was Blizzard, the supposed king of the rally, losing a close match like this. Warcraft 3 basically laid over and died after the first 5 minutes, which is just strange. This was another match in a growing trend of people closely missing 1-point matches, and the first round would have many more of them before we were finished.

It almost makes you disappointed. Close matches are the best thing about contests, but soooo many of them were these meaningless 1 point affairs. Some of these needed to happen in later rounds, even 2. Round 2 was mostly bad, which I think most people would agree on.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4086&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=18)

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---

## (5)Perfect Dark vs (12)Conker's Bad Fur Day 2010

_source: (5)Perfect Dark vs (12)Conker's Bad Fur Day 2010 (revid 69163)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Friday, October 29, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** East
- **Match \#:** 19
- **Match Date:** Friday, October 29, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 9,870
- **Oracle Expectations:** Perfect Dark - 62.47% 115 for - 2 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Perfect Dark - 79.05%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 756 Perfect Dark: 16409 Conker's Bad Fur Day: 3500

The absolute worst type of match is a ~65-35% type of match, like this one. Not low enough to be interesting, not high enough to be interesting. It's right in the middle, and even worse here is this was an N64 SFF match that we could draw nothing relevant from. Perfect Dark \> Call of Duty 4 was a decent enough match to see an upset happen, but we learned literally nothing by this beating. Even the vote totals sucked.

Put it this way: The best parts of this match were the match picture and HaRRicH's day-long tribute to the Great Mighty Poo.

Actually thinking of it that way, maybe this match wasn't so bad after all! \>\_\>

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4087&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=19)

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---

## (4)Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare vs (13)Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time 2010

_source: (4)Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare vs (13)Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time 2010 (revid 69164)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Friday, October 29, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** East
- **Match \#:** 20
- **Match Date:** Friday, October 29, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 11,894
- **Oracle Expectations:** Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare - 66.04% 117 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare - 89.03%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 260 Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare: 20126 Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time: 1637

To this point of the contest, more people bet on Call of Duty 4 in this match than any other game in any other match -- more than even Melee against Guitar Hero 2. That plus 89% as a 4 seed in round 1 just screams casual bait.

That said, Call of Duty thoroughly embarrassed itself in this match. I've never played a single Prince game, but in contests I seem to remember something from early in the series scoring something like 0.0003% in 2009. For Prince, any Prince, to avoid the doubling against such massive casualbait shows you how much GameFAQs hates Call of Duty. This hate used to get poured onto Halo and Grand Theft Auto, but now Call of Duty and rhythm or sports games get the brunt of it.

One match ago I mentioned how ~65-35% matches are the worst, but that wasn't the case here. There's a certain glee in seeing whatever GameFAQs decide to hate next, and this site hates Call of Duty. Then you look up what won our Game of the Year in 2009 and just laugh your ass off.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4088&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=20)

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---

## (3)Pokémon Diamond/Pearl/Platinum vs (14)Metroid Fusion 2010

_source: (3)Pokémon Diamond/Pearl/Platinum vs (14)Metroid Fusion 2010 (revid 69165)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Saturday, October 30, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** East
- **Match \#:** 21
- **Match Date:** Saturday, October 30, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 3,640
- **Oracle Expectations:** Pokémon Diamond/Pearl/Platinum - 64.09% 116 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Pokémon Diamond/Pearl/Platinum - 78.53%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 705 Pokémon Diamond/Pearl/Platinum: 17523 Metroid Fusion: 3005

This was the first Pokémon game we saw in action, and its performance was a bad sign of things to come in the future. No one wanted to look at this match and extrapolate Pokémon losing a step from it, but this is exactly what it meant. Look even deeper and you can gleam GSC not getting the HGSS boost so many banked on.

It's not that Pokémon is weak, because it's not. But the peak for anything past RBY is long over. 55% on a clearly weaker game when it shares a handheld fanbase is awful. The vote totals and prediction percentage based on what should have happened here were also awful.

This isn't a random rant, either. Only 20 people in the Oracle picked DPP to get under 60% here. This was a terrible performance by the game no matter what damage control the fans want to come up with. Metroid is a decently strong series on this site, but to embarrass Pokémon takes more than that. This was all DPP tanking out of nowhere, and also worth noting is the game kept losing percentage with the morning vote, against something that isn't totally day-oriented.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4089&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=21)

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---

## (6)WWF No Mercy vs (11)Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance 2010

_source: (6)WWF No Mercy vs (11)Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance 2010 (revid 69166)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Saturday, October 30, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** East
- **Match \#:** 22
- **Match Date:** Saturday, October 30, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 19,885
- **Oracle Expectations:** Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance - 53.09% 89 for - 29 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance - 70.19%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 1389 WWF No Mercy: 4688 Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance: 13194

So hey, remember this match?

That was the last time such a debated match turned into such a massive blowout. Though to be fair, most of the people on Board 8 picking WWF No Mercy knew it would lose, but picked it anyway because this was a mildly debatable match and people wanted to support the guru nomination. There was also some wrestling love in there and a debate on whether or not GameFAQs considered wrestling games sports-type games that it would be unwilling to vote for.

That all ended in seconds. Fire Emblem just annihilated WWF from start to finish, leaving no doubt at all. It meant a lot of things, most notably how we can make it official that GameFAQs doesn't care about wrestling. The other thing is how this match turned Fire Emblem 7 vs Tony Hawk from debatable to lock in a matter of seconds.

On a personal level, the only games in this bracket I like as much as Fire Emblem 9 are Melee and Street Fighter 4. I had zero faith in two of those three games, but we can all see how that worked out. All three ended up winning in round 1, which was awesome. And the trio closed the deal with going 72-28 in a debated match, which is always hilarious to see.

Though with that said, this was a rare occasion where Board 8 didn't care about losing. Supporting the guru choice and throwing a point away willingly was too tempting to pass up for many.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4090&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=22)

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---

## (7)Valkyria Chronicles vs (10)Disgaea: Hour of Darkness 2010

_source: (7)Valkyria Chronicles vs (10)Disgaea: Hour of Darkness 2010 (revid 69167)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Sunday, October 31, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** East
- **Match \#:** 23
- **Match Date:** Sunday, October 31, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 1,508
- **Oracle Expectations:** Valkyria Chronicles - 44.13% 9 for - 108 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Valkyria Chronicles - 58.43%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 1261 Valkyria Chronicles: 10581 Disgaea: Hour of Darkness: 7438

Also known as the match where DAT TOP OPTION was born as a legitimate prediction tool. Oh we'd seen it before, such as with Vyse vs Laharl in 2004, but the difference here as opposed to the past is that in particular fodder vs fodder match, the bottom option had literally zero reason to lose. Disgaea has more respect on this site, got a character into contests in the past and was arguably the game that got GameFAQs into loving cult RPGs. You can make a real case Valkyria Chronicles doesn't even exist without Disgaea's success.

But unfortunately for Disgaea, it was the bottom option. Everyone knew it, too, which is why everyone called the match over 5 minutes in when Valkyria Chronicles only led by 2 votes. Everyone knew that no one cared about this match other than bracket voters, and that Disgaea not smoking the first 5 minutes meant that it had lost. We didn't even need to look at the rest of the match to know what would happen, and sure enough Valkyria Chronicles started going up before long.

Really, all you need to see to know how little people cared about what was a fairly close match was the vote totals. 31k for a close match, which means no rallying or shenanigans, was purely "just get this out of the way, plz". And from this point forth, you can guarantee that everyone will pick the top option in a pure fodder match no matter how many reasons the bottom option has to win. This match just cements the theory.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4091&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=23)

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---

## (2)Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs (15)Mario Kart DS 2010

_source: (2)Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs (15)Mario Kart DS 2010 (revid 69168)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Sunday, October 31, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** East
- **Match \#:** 24
- **Match Date:** Sunday, October 31, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 35,524
- **Oracle Expectations:** Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 79.70% 119 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 87.61%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 253 Super Smash Bros. Brawl: 19706 Mario Kart DS: 2005

With how Melee crushed Guitar Hero 2 with this division's first match, it was on Brawl to match. Looking back on it, Brawl was the more impressive game from the start in this contest. Even taking account Melee getting all night matches (Smash is awful at night) and Brawl getting all day matches, 87% on Guitar Hero 2 is not as impressive as a whopping 83% on Mario Kart DS.

Mind you this was after Brawl lost the board vote, which would be a common theme for it all contest long. But SFF match or not, 83% on any Mario Kart game is an absolutely insane number. People forget Mario Kart DS finished second in our 2005 Game of the Year polling. It's not a joke game by any stretch, but Brawl came out here and just made it look like absolute crap. Suddenly Melee's murdering of Guitar Hero 2 didn't mean as much, because it was impossible to imagine Brawl not repeating the same performance.

The only real argument in Melee's favor at this point would be nostalgia and the fanbase preferring Melee, and we all saw how that went. But on pure strength alone, Melee clearly had no argument. It was at best Brawl's equal indirectly.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4092&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=24)

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---

## (1)Super Mario Galaxy vs (16)Beyond Good & Evil 2010

_source: (1)Super Mario Galaxy vs (16)Beyond Good & Evil 2010 (revid 69169)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Monday, November 1, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southeast
- **Match \#:** 25
- **Match Date:** Monday, November 1, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 18,183
- **Oracle Expectations:** Super Mario Galaxy - 76.68% 112 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Mario Galaxy - 91.93%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 303 Super Mario Galaxy: 20275 Beyond Good & Evil: 1496

Everyone knew BG&E would be weak as hell, but people made the misconception of thinking Galaxy would be weak this contest. So when this match came around and Galaxy failed to triple a game presumed to be pure fodder trash, people were up in arms about it being a 1 seed. If only people knew in advance just how legit Galaxy would end up. It actually started in the high 70s and fell below a tripling, but minor percentage shifts are boring. This match is funny in hindsight because everyone assumed it proved Galaxy's weakness, but as we all know it went out and put up one hell of a number against Twilight Princess later on.

Not much else to say about this match, since 1 \> 16 matches are boring. We need another Starcraft \> Halo.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4093&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=25)

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---

## (8)Pokémon Ruby/Sapphire/Emerald vs (9)Grand Theft Auto IV 2010

_source: (8)Pokémon Ruby/Sapphire/Emerald vs (9)Grand Theft Auto IV 2010 (revid 69170)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Monday, November 1, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southeast
- **Match \#:** 26
- **Match Date:** Monday, November 1, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 908
- **Oracle Expectations:** Pokémon Ruby/Sapphire/Emerald - 50.66% 69 for - 45 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Pokémon Ruby/Sapphire/Emerald - 26.23%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 1037 Pokémon Ruby/Sapphire/Emerald: 6698 Grand Theft Auto IV: 12873

All things considered, this match shouldn't have been debated in any way. This was Pokémon during the day against GTA, a series that can bomb like no other on GameFAQs, coming off of Pokémon's best contest yet. But then KP, who knows the Pokémon fanbase better than anyone else on Board 8, went and said RSE had no chance because it was the black sheep of the series. Suddenly, this easy and meaningless 1 point match had people arguing about it.

People really should have left well enough alone and gone "Okay, Pokémon in the day, done deal", though to be fair GTA4 was legitimately the stronger game before 4chan got involved.

When the match started, GTA4 had the early lead much to everyone's surprise. But then RSE eliminated it quickly, so people quickly assumed RSE would run away with the match. Didn't quite happen that way, as GTA went nuts after the 20 minute tie update. It exploded about as well as a game \*can\* explode during a close 12 hour match, and things were looking great.

Then two key things happened: The ASV favoring RSE and 4chan's rallying. 4chan can't have the effect here that they do on Gamespot, mainly because the people at Gamespot are idiots and deny vote-stuffing takes place in their own version of annual contests, but they can still have a decent enough effect with legitimate rallies during close matches. But more importantly, the ASV favoring RSE just ruined Grand Theft Auto 4 here. As soon as GTA's lead went from 385 to 320 just after 3 when the ASV kicks in, everyone aware of contest trends knew the match was over. In six and a half short hours, RSE swung more than 1400 votes to turn this once-close match into a joke. GTA made a small run at the end, but it was meaningless.

A lot of people complained about this result, but... really, we're complaining about this? GTA4 is objectively the most overrated game ever made (No really, it is: <http://www.gamerankings.com/browse.html>), so the game getting thoroughly embarrassed by a third-rate Pokémon title in the very first round was the best possible thing that could have ever happened to it. And make no mistake: RSE was not a good generation. It shows that voters are smarter than we give them credit for, because they pay no mind to terrible reviews from so-called "professionals" that anyone with a brain realizes are paid off.

I mean really, it doesn't take an exceptionally cynical mind to connect a few dots: <http://www.shacknews.com/onearticle.x/50134>

Rumor or not, let's not pretend there was no truth there and that this doesn't go on. So f\*\*\* Grand Theft Auto 4 for being the posterchild of why professional game reviews are terrible sources for gaming opinions. It helps that every GTA game after 2 wasn't any good, but let's not go nuts here. This was one of the best things that happened all contest. And after all that, it's just icing on the cake when we can look at this match and have a collective, hearty HAW HAW CASUALS: <http://thengamer.com/guru/desstats.php>

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4094&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=26)

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---

## (5)Dragon Age: Origins vs (12)F-Zero GX 2010

_source: (5)Dragon Age: Origins vs (12)F-Zero GX 2010 (revid 69171)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southeast
- **Match \#:** 27
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, November 2, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 14,195
- **Oracle Expectations:** Dragon Age: Origins - 60.98% 108 for - 4 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Dragon Age: Origins - 87.21%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 578 Dragon Age: Origins: 18838 F-Zero GX: 1997

Nothing lasts forever, and there was just no way the first round of this contest was going to continue on the insane pace it was on. After RSE \> GTA4, we went on a run of 12 straight predictable snoozefests. Things wouldn't get interesting again until the Persona 3 vs Civilization 4 match, except the match was... you know, Persona 3 vs Civilization 4. Give us a debated match where the games combine to sell more than 35 copies or something. People manufactured drama over dumb matches, like pretending Tales of Vesperia vs Borderlands would be close, but everyone knew better.

That said, this match was funny. Oh F-Zero stood no chance to win, but Dragon Age killing in a poll offered Board 8 the chance to see Anagram in action. As everyone knows, Anagram wrote a 16 page essay on why he thinks Dragon Age is bad, but the writeup was so long he had nowhere to put it, so he just left it on his desktop. No seriously, that's a paraphrased quote from the man himself.

But he couldn't write all that and not show anyone, so he broke it up and posted it. All over the place. In every single topic about the game, not to mention all the topics he would repeatedly make about it. Then the match hit and Dragon Age just wrecked, so you can bet your ass he wouldn't be able to help himself from going all ADD with that ridiculous rant.

People hate how I used to bash Shadow of the Colossus all the time, and I'm literarily capable with a vernacular acumen well above the normal standard deviations. Now imagine how well a months-long rant from someone that can't write went over.

For that reason and that reason alone, the match was high f\*\*\*ing comedy. I have no issues with Anagram personally and you can check my friends list on Facebook for proof, but those rants of his are hiiiiiii-larious. If he makes a topic about Dragon Age, ever, I'm reading it. And I will laugh a whole hell of a lot.

(And yes I asked his permission to write this, though he can't remember anything beyond 5 minutes ago so he undoubtedly forgot I asked! \<3)

I do like the guy though, seriously. And when you start a string of 12 straight bad matches, you need entertainment from somewhere. Not many matches surpassed the Anagram Special.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4095&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=27)

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---

## (4)The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess vs (13)Shenmue 2010

_source: (4)The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess vs (13)Shenmue 2010 (revid 69172)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southeast
- **Match \#:** 28
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, November 2, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 34,814
- **Oracle Expectations:** The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess - 76.65% 112 for - 1 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess - 91.61%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 285 The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess: 20652 Shenmue: 1336

Board 8 sure does, so when Zelda went completely berserk in a day match against fodder as it's prone to do now and then, people lost their s\*\*\* and started whining about ZeldaFAQs and Zelda Always Wins and etc etc etc. Compound this with Shenmue ans being some of the biggest crybabies on the planet -- You guys seriously expected it to beat Zelda when it only got 25% against Final Fantasy X, really? -- and you had one of the worst matches of the contest. Not because the match was bad per se, but the board was completely intolerable. It was almost as bad as the "WHY ISN'T DEUS EX WINNING BY MORE!?!?@?!?@!?" crowd. Almost.

And this was before -- long before -- Majora's Mask went apes\*\*\* all over the bracket. But to be completely fair, this was a godlike performance from Twilight Princess that legitimately did call into question the looming Smash match. Zelda 1 on 1 is no joke, and does anyone really think Twilight Princess wouldn't have beaten Final Fantasy X had they met in the final?

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4096&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=28)

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---

## (3)BioShock vs (14)Star Wars: Battlefront II 2010

_source: (3)BioShock vs (14)Star Wars: Battlefront II 2010 (revid 69173)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southeast
- **Match \#:** 29
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, November 3, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 12,893
- **Oracle Expectations:** BioShock - 60.82% 113 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** BioShock - 88.83%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 554 BioShock: 19232 Star Wars: Battlefront II: 2288

So hey, remember this match? <http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/BioShock_vs_LittleBigPlanet_vs_Metal_Gear_Solid_4_vs_Portal_2009>

Remember, to this point we hadn't yet seen Portal go nuts. So when BioShock came out and just WRECKED Star Wars it caused all kinds of chatter. Should we really go broad spectrum for a character contest, should we really expose Vader to possibly getting blown out, is Star Wars weak on GameFAQs, and so on and so on.

But the most relevant chatter came when people started doing numbers voodoo with the vote-in polls to project BioShock beating both Kingdom Hearts games. We all know what would eventually happen here, but BioShock still had itself a good contest. It's come a long way since 2009, and this was one of those matches where you got the sense voters took the words "Game of the Decade" seriously. BioShock gets MASSIVE amounts of respect all over the place, so maybe it doing well wasn't such a huge surprise. We really need to get a BioShock vs Portal match, 1 on 1. No one would know what to pick.

As a random factoid, BioShock's percentage increased overall until the end. This is very rare, and maybe in a different spot it causes massive damage to the bracket.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4097&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=29)

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---

## (6)Kingdom Hearts II vs (11)Halo 2 2010

_source: (6)Kingdom Hearts II vs (11)Halo 2 2010 (revid 69174)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southeast
- **Match \#:** 30
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, November 3, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 16,223
- **Oracle Expectations:** Kingdom Hearts II - 60.28% 113 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Kingdom Hearts II - 57.84%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 1157 Kingdom Hearts II: 11238 Halo 2: 8510

Can you believe Halo 2 used to be considered one of the best games ever? Now it's crapped on even by hardcore Halo fans and weird Kingdom Hearts sequels. I'd seriously pick Chain of Memories to beat Halo 2 heads-up, too.

This match was very boring, which is actually notable. It was a day match, and the percentages barely moved at all during the ASV featuring two well-known ASV titans. This would eventually lull people to sleep and give off a false sense of hope during a later match involving Halo and Uncharted 2. But never fear, for the ASV King would have his day.

On a related note, this match meant nothing for the Kingdom Hearts duel as any match involving Halo will have wrong numbers because of how hated the series is. Super Mario Sunshine not being a bottom 10 games in the LOL x-stats is pathetic.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4098&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=30)

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---

## (7)Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 vs (10)Dissidia: Final Fantasy 2010

_source: (7)Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 vs (10)Dissidia: Final Fantasy 2010 (revid 69175)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Thursday, November 4, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southeast
- **Match \#:** 31
- **Match Date:** Thursday, November 4, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 5,189
- **Oracle Expectations:** Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 - 57.46% 111 for - 3 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 - 88.98%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 461 Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2: 19828 Dissidia: Final Fantasy: 2158

When the match pic first went up, people flipped out about this match. Seven FF female leads against Generic Call of Duty Guy (Correction: 6 female leads and a primate)? NOT FAIR, screamed the masses, especially with Dissidia getting Call of Duty at night.

And they actually had a point. Look at those prediction percentages, for a lowly 7 seed. Can you imagine the uproar had Call of Duty lost close with that picture? Thankfully the match was never close so it was never a problem, but... man.

Now say whatever you will about Activi\$ion and Call of Duty, and most of it would be warranted, but let me remind you who won our [2009 Game of the Year.](http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3727)

Yeah yeah, GOTY polls mean nothing. But in a sense, they tell you who the midcarders are. So for Dissidia, a terrible fanservice PSP exclusive with awful gameplay, plot, graphics, characters and collect-a-thons to so thoroughly embarrass Call of Duty like this was really something else. Not that Call of Duty: Cash Grab Ops is much better as a game, but this match probably doesn't get closer than 75-25 on any other major gaming site. Call of Duty really has become our new casual series to hate.

On a personal note, you won't find many polls where I hate both entrants more than this one. Two terrible games that should not exist, from companies that should have stopped designing games ages ago. If \$queenix and Activi\$ion both disappeared, gaming would be so much better off. And this comes as a guy who really enjoyed Final Fantasy 13.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4099&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=31)

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---

## (2)Kingdom Hearts vs (15)Castlevania: Dawn of Sorrow 2010

_source: (2)Kingdom Hearts vs (15)Castlevania: Dawn of Sorrow 2010 (revid 69176)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Thursday, November 4, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southeast
- **Match \#:** 32
- **Match Date:** Thursday, November 4, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 30,760
- **Oracle Expectations:** Kingdom Hearts - 68.92% 113 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Kingdom Hearts - 89.21%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 440 Kingdom Hearts: 19664 Castlevania: Dawn of Sorrow: 1948

The Southeast's first round ended with a match that made everyone think the Kingdom Hearts duel was settled before it even began. Granted we had no read on Dawn of Sorrow, but 77% on it is no joke. Add to that how Kingdom Hearts exploded during the ASV here while Kingdom Hearts 2 did nothing with the ASV against Halo 2, and you had KH1 as the clear favorite following this match.

Not much else to say here, so I'll just keep it short. I will say on a personal level that seeing Dawn of Sorrow get murdered like that sucked. I loved that game. I love Kingdom Hearts too, don't get me wrong, but this match being a little closer would have been nice. Dawn of Sorrow isn't appreciated enough.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4100&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=32)

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---

## (1)Final Fantasy X vs (16)Viewtiful Joe 2010

_source: (1)Final Fantasy X vs (16)Viewtiful Joe 2010 (revid 69177)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Friday, November 5, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** South
- **Match \#:** 33
- **Match Date:** Friday, November 5, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 23,091
- **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy X - 81.55% 106 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Final Fantasy X - 92.77%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 273 Final Fantasy X: 21157 Viewtiful Joe: 1231

The stats topic is big on overreacting early in matches, but Final Fantasy is the one series where it's warranted because it can look so bad early in polls.

Early on, Viewtiful Joe was making FFX look like crap. Sure FFX recovered to get a decent number, but this wasn't about whether or not FFX could beat Viewtiful Joe. It was about whether or not FFX could win the contest. And based on the early parts of this match, FFX was screwed. We weren't able to pinpoint the game that would upend it, but we were able to see how it would happen based on this one match.

Put it another way: Think Zelda or Smash would have struggled like this? Well Brawl might have, but it would have likely recovered much better than FFX was able to do here.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4101&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=33)

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---

## (8)Tales of Vesperia vs (9)Borderlands 2010

_source: (8)Tales of Vesperia vs (9)Borderlands 2010 (revid 69178)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Friday, November 5, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** South
- **Match \#:** 34
- **Match Date:** Friday, November 5, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 5,563
- **Oracle Expectations:** Borderlands - 53.54% 85 for - 22 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Borderlands - 69.75%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 1448 Tales of Vesperia: 5193 Borderlands: 13106

Another Tales match, another 55-45 type of loss. Board 8's love affair with the game prevented Borderlands from getting the prediction percentage it deserved, but there was really no way Borderlands was going to lose this even with Vesperia losing the board vote. Even on an RPG dominated site, the Tales series has never been able to do anything beyond Symphonia, and even Symphonia usually tanks.

Worth noting here is how this was one of the few 8/9 matches in the first round to go as planned. Most of them screwed people over hardcore, but Borderlands was a good little favorite and won easily like it was supposed to.

Tales is weird in that the rest of the site knows it's weak, but hardcore contest people always want it to be strong. So you end up with experts overrating Tales and casuals picking it properly all the time. Go take a peek at Symphonia's prediction percentages for proof of this.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4102&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=34)

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---

## (5)Golden Sun vs (12)Ratchet & Clank: Up Your Arsenal 2010

_source: (5)Golden Sun vs (12)Ratchet & Clank: Up Your Arsenal 2010 (revid 69179)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Saturday, November 6, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** South
- **Match \#:** 35
- **Match Date:** Saturday, November 6, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 12,931
- **Oracle Expectations:** Golden Sun - 57.17% 101 for - 6 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Golden Sun - 63.93%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 903 Golden Sun: 13703 Ratchet & Clank: Up Your Arsenal: 6641

We all knew Ratchet & Clank would be weak, but it was still weird seeing Golden Sun score in the high 60s against anything. Either Ratchet was weaker than expected or Golden Sun was very very legit.

Given all the whining Golden Sun would end up causing with its second round match, we can probably assume this match meant Golden Sun's legitimacy in hindsight. This was no fluke, either, as the percentages stayed this way all match.

One thing was for sure after this: San Andreas was f\*\*\*ed.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4103&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=35)

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---

## (4)Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas vs (13)Dead Space 2010

_source: (4)Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas vs (13)Dead Space 2010 (revid 69180)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Saturday, November 6, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** South
- **Match \#:** 36
- **Match Date:** Saturday, November 6, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 13,666
- **Oracle Expectations:** Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas - 64.37% 107 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas - 78.28%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 449 Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas: 17936 Dead Space: 4055

This was a day match, which should have helped San Andreas have a great performance. However, its performance was merely average. On a normal day, this might not have meant much with Golden Sun looming in one of the few good round 2 matches we had. But with Golden Sun DS released on the day of the match, San Andreas couldn't afford to look merely on par with Golden Sun. It had to look better, by a lot, and it failed to do that here.

As a random factoid, Allen mentioned in board8chat pre-contest that he was very surprised Dead Space got in. It didn't do all that bad, and you'd have to wonder how something like Dead Space vs Ratchet & Clank: Random Subtitle would go.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4104&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=36)

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---

## (3)Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic vs (14)Devil May Cry 2010

_source: (3)Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic vs (14)Devil May Cry 2010 (revid 69181)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Sunday, November 7, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** South
- **Match \#:** 37
- **Match Date:** Sunday, November 7, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 6,949
- **Oracle Expectations:** Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic - 57.72% 97 for - 11 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic - 75.37%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 579 Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic: 16242 Devil May Cry: 5469

People worried about this match going in because they were desperate to see something interesting in our string of 12 straight boring round 1 matches, but it wasn't warranted. Especially not after Devil May Cry 3 crapped the bed against Mother 3. Yes Devil May Cry would end up stronger than 3, but last year proved KOTOR was no joke.

Now with that said, KOTOR started off at 63% and fell all the way down below 58% before the match finally ended. That's a significant bleed, which called into serious question the KOTOR \> FF9 upset. And this is all after DMC3 thoroughly embarrassed itself earlier this round. Barring FF9 completely collapsing, KOTOR wasn't getting past round 3.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4105&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=37)

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---

## (6)Fire Emblem vs (11)Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 2 2010

_source: (6)Fire Emblem vs (11)Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 2 2010 (revid 69182)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Sunday, November 7, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** South
- **Match \#:** 38
- **Match Date:** Sunday, November 7, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 14,764
- **Oracle Expectations:** Fire Emblem - 65.89% 105 for - 2 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Fire Emblem - 62.90%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 813 Fire Emblem: 14040 Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 2: 6403

This was a mildly debated match pre-contest, but then this poll happened and all that debate looked pretty dumb: <http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/(6)WWF_No_Mercy_vs_(11)Fire_Emblem:_Path_of_Radiance_2010>

A sports game people actually like got wrecked by Path of Radiance, so imagine how a sports game people legitimately hate would do. To be fair Tony Hawk didn't get completely killed like its distant wrestling cousin, but this match was never in doubt at all. Some actually wondered if Fire Emblem could take down KOTOR.

Personally, I'd love to see a Fire Emblem 7 vs Path of Radiance match. Radiance probably wins, but who really knows.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4106&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=38)

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---

## (7)Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 3 vs (10)Civilization IV 2010

_source: (7)Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 3 vs (10)Civilization IV 2010 (revid 69183)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Monday, November 8, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** South
- **Match \#:** 39
- **Match Date:** Monday, November 8, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 1,576
- **Oracle Expectations:** Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 3 - 49.49% 63 for - 45 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 3 - 42.85%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 1133 Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 3: 9009 Civilization IV: 10661

DAT TOP OPTION strikes again!

This was the first match in awhile that was a legitimate tossup or good match, marred only by the fact the two games involved were Persona 3 and Civilization 4. Very very very few people on GameFAQs care about either one of these games. You'd assume otherwise from hanging out on Board 8 a lot given 100% of the people who love the Persona series post here, but the reality is these are two series the site doesn't care about.

So with a match that's pure fodder vs pure fodder such as this, DAT TOP OPTION is all that really mattered. Switch the seedings here and I guarantee you Civ 4 wins. But as-is, Persona 3 kind of won with ease. For a 52-48 match, it was never really close past the first couple minutes. The PC had a pretty good contest, but RPGs and DAT TOP OPTION reigned supreme here.

Though to be fair, Civ 4 being the favorite made sense. The Civ series is weak, but it's at least done something in a contest before. Persona had never done anything notable before this match, so people went with the known entity over DAT TOP OPTION. This will not be a mistake Board 8 repeats in the first round ever again.

In a way I'm glad Civ is beyond weak. We still need that Civ 3 vs FFT duel so I can make MWIS honor his loser-leaves account bet with me.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4107&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=39)

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---

## (2)Final Fantasy IX vs (15)Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trials and Tribulations 2010

_source: (2)Final Fantasy IX vs (15)Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trials and Tribulations 2010 (revid 69184)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Monday, November 8, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** South
- **Match \#:** 40
- **Match Date:** Monday, November 8, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 27,941
- **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy IX - 69.95% 108 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Final Fantasy IX - 85.88%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 418 Final Fantasy IX: 19393 Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trials and Tribulations: 2619

DAT TOP OPT--\*gets shot\*

But seriously, this match was funny despite being a blowout.

I'd take the time pulling up the list of every match ever involving FF9, but you already know where I'm going with this. Final Fantasy 9, no matter what, always loses the day vote. It's like clockwork. So when FF9 started losing the ASV to Phoenix Wright 3, it was hard to not chuckle a bit. Sure it went back up once the evening and second night vote hit, also like clockwork, but FF9's ability to tank the middle of the afternoon against ANYTHING is really something else.

And KOTOR vs FF9 was a day match. Hmmmmmm....

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4108&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=40)

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---

## (1)Resident Evil 4 vs (16)Jet Grind Radio 2010

_source: (1)Resident Evil 4 vs (16)Jet Grind Radio 2010 (revid 69185)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southwest
- **Match \#:** 41
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, November 9, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 24,967
- **Oracle Expectations:** Resident Evil 4 - 81.87% 102 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Resident Evil 4 - 95.55%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 158 Resident Evil 4: 22322 Jet Grind Radio: 714

There are many examples of this contest of voters being smart and taking the words "Game of the Decade" seriously. Other than the voters preventing Brawl from winning, there was no better example of this than Resident Evil 4.

It was RE4, not a Final Fantasy or Zelda or Smash title, who had the highest prediction percentage and battle pickers in round 1. Though FFX was the most nominated game, RE4 might have actually been the favorite to win the entire contest. Those numbers aren't available, but RE4 getting more people picking it to win than any other game wouldn't surprise me.

So when RE4 came out and just destroyed Jet Grind Radio, the "Can RE4 beat FFX?" wasn't typical early match overreactions -- especially with the percentages staying consistent all match. RE4 was legit as hell, likely boosting from the contest's name, and an upset over FFX wasn't out of the question given how bad FFX looked a few matches ago. RE4 would end up losing that match, but this doesn't take away how good a contest the game had.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4109&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=41)

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---

## (8)Grand Theft Auto: Vice City vs (9)Silent Hill 2 2010

_source: (8)Grand Theft Auto: Vice City vs (9)Silent Hill 2 2010 (revid 69186)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southwest
- **Match \#:** 42
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, November 9, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 13,044
- **Oracle Expectations:** Grand Theft Auto: Vice City - 64.25% 103 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Grand Theft Auto: Vice City - 73.88%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 837 Grand Theft Auto: Vice City: 16494 Silent Hill 2: 4229

So hey, remember this match?

SFF with the other PS2 games or not, Silent Hill 2 SUCKED last year. And even if it was SFF, Vice City is a PS2 game that should have taken advantage.

And, well... there's really no sugarcoating this. Vice City just absolutely sucked in this match, making it one of the biggest stinkbombs of the entire contest. San Andreas was in enough trouble as-is against Golden Sun, but the case can be made this match proved the entirety of Grand Theft Auto was the turd of the contest.

I'll go one step further and say Vice City looked the worst of all four games. GTA4 lost to RSE, but that look a rally and an ASV. San Andreas lost to Golden Sun, but it's possible San Andreas wins if Golden Sun's new game doesn't come out on the day of the match with a gigantic full-page ad on the home page. GTA3 actually ended up looking pretty good against Half-Life 2.

But Vice City? It just sucked period. Unless Yahtzee's review and "Game of the Decade" boosted Silent Hill 2 like nothing else (quite possible, in fairness), this match was horrendous for Vice City. It was no fluke, either, because it was consistent for nearly 12 hours. This goes far beyond simple anti-votes -- it's legitimate hate. This site hates Grand Theft Auto.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4110&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=42)

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---

## (5)The World Ends With You vs (12)Dead Rising 2010

_source: (5)The World Ends With You vs (12)Dead Rising 2010 (revid 69187)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southwest
- **Match \#:** 43
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, November 10, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 654
- **Oracle Expectations:** Dead Rising - 50.74% 55 for - 50 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Dead Rising - 64.42%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 1175 The World Ends With You: 7363 Dead Rising: 13003

Now THIS was a good match. Persona 3 and Civ 4 gave us a decent effort, but it was meaningless. This match possibly meant three points, which is why the debates surrounding the whole TWEWY/DR/P4 trio (poor Braid) were so heated. Dead Rising and Persona 4 ended up almost even in the guru to reach round 3, but first thing's first.

Though Dead Rising was the favorite against TWEWY, TWO-EY was bound to be a difficult match for it. Close night matches against Square RPGs beloved by Board 8 tend to be difficult, and the debate was warranted. TOWEL-IE took the early lead and got it near 100 early, threatening to run away with the match before it really got into the thick of things. But Dead Rising was able to fight back, and we had a war of attrition on our hands.

Things stayed deadlocked for a few hours, but eventually Dead Rising was able to build some momentum and get its own 100 vote lead. One problem: This happened at 4 am, when Square RPGs tend to go berserk thanks to European and Asian votes massively favoring them overnight. This match was no exception, and S-TEWEY (DEFEATS TRUMAN) was able to erase that lead in only an hour.

Unfortunately for TEWEY, it did nothing to actually try winning the match. It was never able to actually start building a lead once it erased the 4 am 100 vote advantage Dead Rising had stored up, so when Dead Rising started winning the morning vote there was nothing The Worlds Ends With You could do to defend itself. Dead Rising ended up winning the match by more than 650 votes, which is a large margin given how the match was close or deadlocked for such a large amount of time.

This also meant Dead Rising was a day game, which potentially meant a lot of trouble for Persona 4 given the round 2 duel was a day match. If Persona 4 was at all comparable to Dumb Acronym Ends With Infinity, it was in trouble.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4111&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=43)

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---

## (4)Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4 vs (13)Braid 2010

_source: (4)Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4 vs (13)Braid 2010 (revid 69188)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southwest
- **Match \#:** 44
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, November 10, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 11,280
- **Oracle Expectations:** Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4 - 59.53% 104 for - 1 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4 - 65.96%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 905 Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4: 14287 Braid: 5839

This was the one match in this fourpack that was predictable, though Braid winning would have been awesome.

We learned very little here. Persona 4 needed to totally wreck house here to make it the favorite next round, and even then people might have just blamed Braid for being fodder or something. What we can look at however is total votes. 40k after the morning match was super close could have potentially meant trouble for Persona 4, but it was one of those things we wouldn't know until match time.

Both Personas winning matches in this contest was awesome for the game's fans (all 25 of them), but it's hard for me to look at this match, go "It couldn't even double a download-only game?" and think Persona 4 disappointed. It's not like Braid was Mega Man 9 and had franchise power to draw from.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4112&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=44)

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---

## (3)Portal vs (14)Gears of War 2 2010

_source: (3)Portal vs (14)Gears of War 2 2010 (revid 69189)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Thursday, November 11, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southwest
- **Match \#:** 45
- **Match Date:** Thursday, November 11, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 16,038
- **Oracle Expectations:** Portal - 63.50% 105 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Portal - 65.45%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 493 Portal: 14640 Gears of War 2: 7789

So yeah, remember when Gears of War 2 completely wrecked its vote-in poll? <http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4050>

Makes pretty much every game from that poll look like garbage in hindsight. Only SoulCalibur 2 did ANYTHING this contest, and that was only because 1/4th of Link's hat was visible.

Before the contest, Portal vs FF12 was a good debate to have. Even Mass Effect was a good game to bring up, thanks to the recent release of Mass Effect 2 having a clear effect on how many nominations the older brother got.

And then this match happened. 71% on a game that wins a vote-in is impressive enough, but then you look at the update chart and see how high this was before the percentage bleed. Portal was a legitimate threat to score a tripling in this match, which is completely insane when you think about it.

yoblazer went on the podcast pre-contest and mentioned something about how people were mistaken in calling Portal such a huge favorite over FF12. And then this match happened. Portal is a beloved game and may very well have gotten the "Game of the Decade" boost, but in reality Valve gave the game away for free for a couple weeks in 2010. That would boost any game, really.

The entire bottom half of this division was on lockdown once this match happened, and the only thing to answer here is how high Portal could go on RE4.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4113&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=45)

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---

## (6)Final Fantasy XII vs (11)Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII 2010

_source: (6)Final Fantasy XII vs (11)Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII 2010 (revid 69190)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Thursday, November 11, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southwest
- **Match \#:** 46
- **Match Date:** Thursday, November 11, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 5,626
- **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy XII - 55.80% 91 for - 15 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Final Fantasy XII - 71.51%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 693 Final Fantasy XII: 15273 Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII: 6379

Fear of Final Fantasy 7 and Zack UNFair got people in a tizzy over this match for some unknown reason. At the end of the day, no matter how bad FF12 is (not that CC is any better) or whether or not "Final Fantasy 7" is in Crisis Core's name, this match was still Playstation 2 versus PSP. This match sucked if you were a 90s Square fan, because it represents everything wrong with them and the FF series these days.

But regardless, FF12 was never going to lose this match, even though "FFXII" split in half along the transverse/axial/lateral plane gives you "CCVII". People hyped Crisis Core only because of the subtitle, though I'll admit the match picture really was UNFair.

Even still, FF12 won the match easily. As for the war, Portal won that. When you start over 58% and fall down below 56%, you're in trouble against a game that has joke trends. And it's not like people love FF12 or anything. There was no way it wouldn't get killed after how badly it performed in this match.

There's something in war called a Pyrrhic Victory, where you win a battle at devastating cost to the victor. Our contests are full of those, and FF12's percentage struggle with Crisis Core was a classic example.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4114&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=46)

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---

## (7)Skies of Arcadia vs (10)Baldur's Gate II: Shadows of Amn 2010

_source: (7)Skies of Arcadia vs (10)Baldur's Gate II: Shadows of Amn 2010 (revid 69191)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Friday, November 12, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southwest
- **Match \#:** 47
- **Match Date:** Friday, November 12, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 1,627
- **Oracle Expectations:** Skies of Arcadia - 53.39% 87 for - 17 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Skies of Arcadia - 47.63%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 1109 Skies of Arcadia: 10011 Baldur's Gate II: Shadows of Amn: 9218

Poor Anagram. PC games did well all contest, a ton of 1 point matches had weird results, and Western RPGs also did quite well for themselves. So when he literally put his neck on the line for this match, it seemed like a decent enough bet. Baldur's Gate 2 had a good chance of winning, and was the bracket favorite.

Unfortunately, Anagram forgot the most important thing of all: DAT TOP OPTION. Though to be fair, Skies probably also wins if you switch the seedings given how fast it started. This match was over 60% early, but after the fast start Skies pulled one of the most memorable percentage collapses ever. It just kept going down and down overnight, to the point of being comical.

Putting it a different way, Skies had a 1000 vote lead in 75 minutes. It only won by 1600 votes, and obviously the match finished 52-48. If this were a day match, you have to think Baldur's Gate might have pulled it off. It did some serious stalling with the morning vote, after all. Even more odd was how legit Skies ended up looking in the final stats. Imagine how funny it would have been had BG2 pulled off some upset over a well-known title.

But at the end of the day, Anagram was stuck doing a backflip. I hear he broke his pool doing it.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4115&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=47)

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---

## (2)Mass Effect vs (15)Plants vs. Zombies 2010

_source: (2)Mass Effect vs (15)Plants vs. Zombies 2010 (revid 69192)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Friday, November 12, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southwest
- **Match \#:** 48
- **Match Date:** Friday, November 12, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 18,975
- **Oracle Expectations:** Mass Effect - 72.38% 105 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Mass Effect - 90.18%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 236 Mass Effect: 21080 Plants vs. Zombies: 2008

If you have any lingering doubts about how much Mass Effect 2 affected the original, look at those prediction percentages. That's 1 seed respect for a 2, which doesn't happen often. To put that in perspective, Majora's Mask (our contest winner) couldn't break a 90% prediction percentage against Wii Sports of all things.

Now with that said, Mass Effect didn't go out and perform like it deserved 1 seed respect. ME2 boosted it, yes, but failing to break 70% on something like Plants vs. Zombies is embarrassing. Portal was the clear favorite for the division's bottom half after its own round 1 match, and only Mass Effect would stand a chance due to its status as a wild card. But then it crapped the bed here and that was that.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4116&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=48)

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---

## (1)Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater vs (16)TimeSplitters 2 2010

_source: (1)Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater vs (16)TimeSplitters 2 2010 (revid 69193)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Saturday, November 13, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** West
- **Match \#:** 49
- **Match Date:** Saturday, November 13, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 20,016
- **Oracle Expectations:** Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater - 78.08% 101 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater - 92.72%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 281 Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater: 21419 TimeSplitters 2: 1404

I know round 1 was all box arts, but that is one hell of a great match picture. MGS3's box art especially is awesome.

Much like the match preceding this, the writing was on the wall for the game that won even with a blowout win. MGS3 won, but this was hardly a 1 seed performance deserving of much respect. TimeSplitters just scraped by in its vote-in, then goes out and prevents MGS3 from getting a 1 seed killing.

I know hindsight is 20-20 and etc etc etc, but this match was a major sign of things to come for the Metal Gear Solid series and a really bad start to the "MGS division". It's rare a game almost scores 77% and looks like crap, but MGS3 looked like crap. No two ways about it.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4117&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=49)

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---

## (8)Marvel vs. Capcom 2 vs (9)New Super Mario Bros. Wii 2010

_source: (8)Marvel vs. Capcom 2 vs (9)New Super Mario Bros. Wii 2010 (revid 84831)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Saturday, November 13, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** West
- **Match \#:** 50
- **Match Date:** Saturday, November 13, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 1,624
- **Oracle Expectations:** Marvel vs Capcom 2 - 43.55% 10 for - 94 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Marvel vs. Capcom 2 - 49.31%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 946 Marvel vs. Capcom 2: 9819 New Super Mario Bros. Wii: 10759

This was one of the first round's most entertaining matches, and it featured one of the biggest (at least publicly) rallies of the entire contest.

Though the brackets and battle were evenly split here, Board 8's love for Nintendo caused the experts to massively favor Mario. And why not? IT'S FREAKING MARIO.

And early on, the theory was doing just fine. The match was of the decently close 52-48 variety, but Mario was winning comfortably and the idea of Mario winning a close day match was impossible. But after about an hour, Mario had a 300 vote lead and MvC2 sliced 100 off of it in 10 minutes. Mario would eventually recover and keep building its lead at a fairly steady pace, but that was just a random blip, right? Surely a tournament-favored 2D fighter wouldn't make noise against a Mario game in a day match, right?

That's, as Chris Berman would say, why they play the games.

Mario's lead peaked around 400, but then the ASV hit and the weirdest thing happened. MvC2 started stalling, if not cutting votes little by little. It stayed like this for hours, right through the early ASV much to everyone's surprise.

Then SRK started rallying for Marvel, and you know what happened from there. I won't link to the graph since it'll be in a picture on the wiki, but the SRK rally made all the difference in this match. 2000 vote swings don't happen often in 12 hour matches, and other than Zelda late it was the most effective rally all contest. Even more impressive was this rally was effective against FREAKING MARIO. I know Mario always wins the close matches late, but this may be the closest thing we get to Mario's clutch not kicking in.

This match was murder for battle brackets, as many many people had long streaks end on this match, and it also wrecked the guru. But that's what happens when you doubt DAT TOP OPTION. More relevantly, this match shows you how little respect the Wii brand is worth on GameFAQs these days.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4118&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=50)

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---

## (5)Paper Mario vs (12)Katamari Damacy 2010

_source: (5)Paper Mario vs (12)Katamari Damacy 2010 (revid 69195)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Sunday, November 14, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** West
- **Match \#:** 51
- **Match Date:** Sunday, November 14, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 16,544
- **Oracle Expectations:** Paper Mario - 63.77% 104 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Paper Mario - 77.32%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 637 Paper Mario: 17375 Katamari Damacy: 4294

Pre-contest, a few people actually had World of Warcraft beating Paper Mario in round 2. One famous prognosticator actually predicted WoW to score 60% there.

Without even looking at the WoW \> Animal Crossing match, you can tell all that was debunked by looking at how badly Paper Mario destroyed Katamari Damacy here. Katamari Damacy used to be a Board 8 darling, but now it's unable to win board votes. Paper Mario ended up being very legit, going as far as winning the If It Were Up To Board 8 contest, but even still it performed very well here.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4119&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=51)

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---

## (4)World of Warcraft vs (13)Animal Crossing 2010

_source: (4)World of Warcraft vs (13)Animal Crossing 2010 (revid 72708)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Sunday, November 14, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** West
- **Match \#:** 52
- **Match Date:** Sunday, November 14, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 8,763
- **Oracle Expectations:** World of Warcraft - 57.41% 98 for - 5 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** World of Warcraft - 92.21%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 237 World of Warcraft: 22245 Animal Crossing: 1189

Fun Fact: Animal Crossing received the least number of nominations among the games getting into the bracket without going through vote-ins.

So of course it gets to go up against World of Warcraft in the first round and just thoroughly embarrass it. Don't let the 58-42 percentages fool you here, either. World of Warcraft got 1 seed respect from bracketmakers, but went out and performed like this was a 6/11 match. Failing to break even 60% on Animal Crossing, the absolute bottom of the barrel when it comes to Nintendo, might be a lower point for WoW than the match it actually lost.

I know GameFAQs despises World of Warcraft, but seeing just how deep that hate ran this contest was really something else. Can you imagine what Majora's Mask or a Smash would have done to Animal Crossing in WoW's place? I know we throw around the idea of anti-votes a lot, but for WoW it actually mattered a lot this contest.

The true irony here is World of Warcraft should have gotten "Game of the Decade" respect, and probably would have on any other site.

## Trivia

- This match is the only 1v1 match in contest history where a character or game with a 90+ prediction percentage failed to break 60%. Only two others even failed to double their opponents.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4120&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=52)

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---

## (3)Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots vs (14)Assassin's Creed 2010

_source: (3)Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots vs (14)Assassin's Creed 2010 (revid 69197)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Monday, November 15, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** West
- **Match \#:** 53
- **Match Date:** Monday, November 15, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 9,987
- **Oracle Expectations:** Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots - 67.61% 104 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots - 73.42%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 666 Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots: 16530 Assassin's Creed: 5718

There's two ways of looking at this match now that the contest is over. With MGS confirmed as the contest's big turkey, you can look at this match and say it underperformed, especially compared to how it rolled heads in 2009. Or you can go hey, Assassin's Creed rocked the vote-ins and MGS4 killed it anyway despite a picture disadvantage.

Given how awful the entire series looked this contest, I'm inclined to go with the former. Remember, Assassin's Creed is a hated game. For MGS4 to not even double it given 2009, picture disadvantage or not, was really bad. And if this match didn't convince you MGS4 lost a big step, rounds 2 and 3 certainly would.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4121&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=53)

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---

## (6)Diablo II vs (11)Eternal Darkness: Sanity's Requiem 2010

_source: (6)Diablo II vs (11)Eternal Darkness: Sanity's Requiem 2010 (revid 69198)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Monday, November 15, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** West
- **Match \#:** 54
- **Match Date:** Monday, November 15, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 22,887
- **Oracle Expectations:** Diablo II - 67.44% 104 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Diablo II - 89.21%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 450 Diablo II: 20645 Eternal Darkness: Sanity's Requiem: 1638

Diablo 2 feels like one of those games that boosted because of the contest's name, even though it only won this one match. To be fair it did really well in this match, predictable or not, and given how badly the other two Blizzard games tanked this really means something.

I know Eternal Darkness isn't really comparable to Assassin's Creed, but compare the numbers here. Almost 90% of people had Diablo 2, a 6 seed, winning in round 1 compared to MGS4's 73%. 4000 more people banked on D2 as well. It's tough to pass that off as Assassin's Creed getting respect, because I never hear anything good about the game. Contrarily, I never hear anything bad about Eternal Darkness. I know MGS4 beat Diablo 2, but something funny went on in this fourpack beyond "MGS tanked".

As a side note, this was my favorite match picture of the first round. It's legitimately frightening and atmospheric, while everything else really did just look like two box arts slapped together.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4122&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=54)

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---

## (7)Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty vs (10)Banjo-Tooie 2010

_source: (7)Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty vs (10)Banjo-Tooie 2010 (revid 69199)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** West
- **Match \#:** 55
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, November 16, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 14,647
- **Oracle Expectations:** Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty - 69.11% 104 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty - 85.51%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 536 Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty: 20029 Banjo-Tooie: 2345

I know Banjo-Tooie isn't the Banjo game of choice, but MGS2 having 20000+ people pick it in the battle as a 7 seed was nuts. There are 1 seeds that didn't break that number.

Oddly enough MGS2 looked like the one game in that series worth a damn once this contest ended, even though it was the first one to lose and the game that kicked off Shadow of the Colossus's upset run. This poll actually started off as a doubling, but MGS2 kept going up until the end and came decently close to breaking 70%.

When you look at round 1, you look at The Sims and Banjo-Tooie and just assume Banjo would kill The Sims. But that's why they play the games, and such. MGS2 had absolutely no clue the mountain it would face in the next round, and we had no clue either. There was zero indication Shadow of the Colossus was going to pull that off based on how the two games performed in the first round.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4123&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=55)

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---

## (2)Shadow of the Colossus vs (15)The Sims 2010

_source: (2)Shadow of the Colossus vs (15)The Sims 2010 (revid 69200)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** West
- **Match \#:** 56
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, November 16, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 20,241
- **Oracle Expectations:** Shadow of the Colossus - 61.07% 98 for - 5 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Shadow of the Colossus - 66.23%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 845 Shadow of the Colossus: 14881 The Sims: 7253

I don't know if The Sim got a Game of the Decade boost or if Shadow of the Colossus hate is pretty widespread beyond my own tastes or what, but this was one of the weirdest prediction percentages all contest. Even battle people only favored SotC, a 2 seed, at a 2:1 ratio. Something was just way off here, especially when you compare those numbers to MGS2's.

As for the actual match, Shadow of the Colossus of course won it easily. There was some buzz about The Sims pulling an upset, and it died about 10 seconds into the poll. But SotC was actually over 70% at one point, then lost the ASV to fall back down near 69.

If you ignore the rest of the contest and just look at the first round, there was no way to expect anything other than a 55-45 win, at least, for MGS2 over SotC. Something very, very odd happened in the first round here. And the LOL x-stats can go to hell, too. Banjo-Tooie would wreck The Sims and everyone knows it.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4124&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=56)

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---

## (1)The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask vs (16)Wii Sports 2010

_source: (1)The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask vs (16)Wii Sports 2010 (revid 69202)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northwest
- **Match \#:** 57
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, November 17, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 27,526
- **Oracle Expectations:** The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - 80.34% 100 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - 88.72%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 374 The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask: 21402 Wii Sports: 2108

Looking back on it now, there was evidence Majora's Mask was a threat to win the title right here in its first match. It's funny when you look back and realize the big debate was Majora's Mask vs Pokémon GSC. The true debate should have been Majora's Mask vs Final Fantasy X.

People tried to downplay this because LOL Wii and LOL Wii Sports and LOL casual gamers and etc, but the fact remains Wii Sports might have the highest play rate of any game ever made. It has the highest sales, at the very least. Say whatever you will about the Wii, and most of the criticism will be warranted, but facts are facts. You can have your own opinions, but you can't have your own facts. Wii Sports is what it is.

And Zelda just murdered it. Good god. Melee might have gotten the biggest blowout of the contest, but no one cares about Guitar Hero anymore. People actually do care about Wii Sports, and Zelda just treated it like garbage here. This truly was a championship performance, and this was before Majora's Mask had any momentum in this contest at all. It actually had over 85% for a long time in this poll, before Wii Sports got the lonely old people morning vote boost.

Can you imagine what Ocarina of Time would have done to poor Wii Sports in Majora's place here?

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4125&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=57)

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---

## (8)Chrono Cross vs (9)Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King 2010

_source: (8)Chrono Cross vs (9)Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King 2010 (revid 69203)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northwest
- **Match \#:** 58
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, November 17, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 11,285
- **Oracle Expectations:** Chrono Cross - 55.61% 91 for - 11 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Chrono Cross - 60.50%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 1425 Chrono Cross: 12833 Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King: 6525

See now this is how 8/9 matches are supposed to go -- a clear favorite winning 60/40, with some minor debate from paranoid people. You may think it's dumb pointing this out, but look at the list of all the 8 vs 9 matches in this contest:

(8)Rock Band 2 - 24365 \[49.24%\]

(9)Deus Ex - 25117 \[50.76%\]

Total Votes - 49482

(8)Mother 3 - 18174 \[35.14%\]

(9)Devil May Cry 3 - 33538 \[64.86%\]

Total Votes - 51712

(8)Warcraft 3 - 25066 \[49.55%\]

(9)The Elder Scrolls 3: Morrowind - 25522 \[50.45%\]

Total Votes - 50588

(8)Pokémon Ruby/Sapphire/Emerald - 30021 \[50.77%\]

(9)Grand Theft Auto 4 - 29113 \[49.23%\]

Total Votes - 59134

(8)Tales of Vesperia - 22346 \[44.47%\]

(9)Borderlands - 27909 \[55.53%\]

Total Votes - 50255

(8)Grand Theft Auto: Vice City - 30560 \[63.57%\]

(9)Silent Hill 2 - 17516 \[36.43%\]

Total Votes - 48076

(8)Marvel vs. Capcom 2 - 26911 \[51.56%\]

(9)New Super Mario Bros. Wii - 25287 \[48.44%\]

Total Votes - 52198

(8)Chrono Cross - 29368 \[61.89%\]

(9)Dragon Quest 8: Journey of the Cursed King - 18083 \[38.11%\]

Total Votes - 47451

Four of those matches completely screwed over battle brackets, notably NSMBWii's loss that all but eliminated most of the field. Of the four that went as expected, two of them were complete mindf\*\*\*s anyway in Vice City and Devil May Cry 3 collapsing against their opponents.

So as the first round wound down to a close, Chrono Cross beating DQ8 was nice to see for an 8/9 match. I know 8/9 matches in any seeded bracket are supposed to be wonky, but losing a ton of matches close would bother anyone paying attention to contests. You can even make the case the Borderlands and Chrono Cross wins were mildly debatable as well.

It's one of those deals where you're happy the contest is seeing good stuff like this, but it sucks when you're on the wrong side of it like so many of us were. So for Board 8, we reveled in a meaningless 1 point JRPG SFF match because we got dicked over on the 8/9 all first round long.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4126&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=58)

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---

## (5)Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney vs (12)Mario Kart Wii 2010

_source: (5)Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney vs (12)Mario Kart Wii 2010 (revid 69204)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Thursday, November 18, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northwest
- **Match \#:** 59
- **Match Date:** Thursday, November 18, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 2,378
- **Oracle Expectations:** Mario Kart Wii - 59.22% 96 for - 7 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Mario Kart Wii - 64.29%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 739 Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney: 7324 Mario Kart Wii: 14908

In two days' time, we got two matches that thoroughly embarrassed the Wii. For my money, this was the funniest LOL WII match of the entire contest. I know NSMBWii losing to MvC2 was out of left field, but that at least required an outside rally.

But a multi-million dollar Wii game needing the morning vote to get saved from an upset at the hands of some DS visual novel? That is embarrassing beyond any reasonable comprehension. I know Board 8 loves Phoenix Wright and all, myself included, but let's not kid ourselves into thinking the entire series isn't weak as hell.

Yet after Mario Kart Wii took the early lead and pushed it to 500 overnight, Phoenix actually started stalling and cutting -- Phoenix Wright, a series with joke trends, was cutting Mario Kart Wii in the dead of night on a pace to actually win.

The morning vote did of course come around and save Mario Kart from one of the most embarrassing losses ever, but the damage was already done. When you let some weak nonsense like Phoenix Wright get that close to you at all, you suck when it comes to contest polls.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4127&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=59)

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---

## (4)Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal vs (13)Advance Wars 2010

_source: (4)Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal vs (13)Advance Wars 2010 (revid 69205)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Thursday, November 18, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northwest
- **Match \#:** 60
- **Match Date:** Thursday, November 18, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 23,606
- **Oracle Expectations:** Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal - 74.43% 103 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal - 80.05%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 375 Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal: 21265 Advance Wars: 2115

Let's just be honest with each other here. Majora's Mask \> GSC became clear after the first round. Sure GSC people will deny it and blame match pictures or Advance Wars being underrated, but that's just denial.

Because while Majora's Mask was out giving us a championship preview, GSC was busy bleeding percentage to a game it should have SFFd into the ground. If you're looking to beat a Zelda game of similar strength 1 on 1 and go on to bigger and better things, you cannot show any weakness at all. GSC being above 75% and drop below 72 before the ASV was a sign of weakness, no matter how badly it would have murdered most every other game in this bracket. Zelda does not f\*\*\* around 1 on 1.

The unfortunate thing for GSC is a lot of us thought it would ride a mid-contest rally past FFX in the semifinals. The game it lost to would end up doing the exact same thing, so those of us who picked GSC to do big things weren't completely nuts (unlike the jokers who went around preaching LOL RALLIES, FFX WILL WIN AND YOU'RE ALL DUMB as if every single contest ever doesn't get weird near the end). We just picked the wrong game to work some magic this year.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4128&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=60)

• **Previous Match**       • **Next Match**

---

## (3)The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker vs (14)God of War II 2010

_source: (3)The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker vs (14)God of War II 2010 (revid 69206)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Friday, November 19, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northwest
- **Match \#:** 61
- **Match Date:** Friday, November 19, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 10,643
- **Oracle Expectations:** The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - 62.06% 103 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - 59.75%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 736 The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker: 13997 God of War II: 8931

If you look at the final numbers of this poll, you end up looking at a fairly mundane match. Zelda failing to double a very popular game from a very popular franchise, not to mention a really low prediction percentage and God of War 2 doing pretty decent coming off of its good vote-in showing.

And then you look at the update chart. Zelda started over an insane 75% before bleeding all the way down to 64, and it didn't even recover percentage during the morning vote. This doesn't happen to Zelda games, and it was either Wind Waker not getting much respect, God of War 2 getting a lot of respect or a combination of both.

Basically, this match meant Wind Waker was screwed against the Majora/GSC winner. You just don't see main line Zelda games doing weird things like this. Normally they go out and murder souls. Wind Waker showed a lot of the old Celda hate still lingers, which meant certain trouble later.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4129&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=61)

• **Previous Match**       • **Next Match**

---

## (6)Assassin's Creed II vs (11)ICO 2010

_source: (6)Assassin's Creed II vs (11)ICO 2010 (revid 69207)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Friday, November 19, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northwest
- **Match \#:** 62
- **Match Date:** Friday, November 19, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 10,494
- **Oracle Expectations:** Assassin's Creed II - 66.49% 103 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Assassin's Creed II - 80.48%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 534 Assassin's Creed II: 19509 ICO: 3642

This was a very weird match to learn much of anything from, especially with it basically staying still in percentages all match. AC2 made a decent ASV increase, but it was nothing huge.

With both games untested and the match obvious to call from the start, focus immediately shifted back to Shadow of the Colossus and the MGS series. With how little respect the ICO team got in brackets and battle challenges, it was a safe bet to assume AC2 only getting 62% on it meant bad news. Which in turn meant MGS4's score on AC1 wasn't all that great.

You actually could make the case this match foreshadowed the Shadow of the Colossus run since that series plus MGS and AC all seemed weak, but it takes a lot of mental gymnastics to reach that point. And when you look ahead, AC2 ended up doing very well for itself. Just a really strange series of matches all around.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4130&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=62)

• **Previous Match**       • **Next Match**

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## (7)Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door vs (10)Gears of War 2010

_source: (7)Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door vs (10)Gears of War 2010 (revid 69208)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Saturday, November 20, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northwest
- **Match \#:** 63
- **Match Date:** Saturday, November 20, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 6,934
- **Oracle Expectations:** Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door - 58.89% 99 for - 3 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door - 29.33%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 815 Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door: 7740 Gears of War: 14762

For whatever reason, casuals were lost about this match. I even had a couple very high-ranking mods IM me to ask for help on where to go for the battle challenge, so I'm glad Paper Mario TYD won after I spent all day telling people to go with it. Gears of War pulling the upset might have gotten me banned or something \<\_\<

Every contest has a match or two where the experts just murder the casuals, and this was one such match in our Game of the Decade contest. Gears of War was a casual shooter that fell off the map fast in popularity, and casual shooters rarely have strength here. Not only that, it was up against FREAKING MARIO and DAT TOP OPTION on JRPGFAQs. CRUISE CONTROL FOR AWESOME AND ET CETERA.

I can sort of understand why casuals would pick Gears 1 to win this in their brackets before the contest started, but after Gears 2 just got completely annihilated at the hands of Portal and Paper Mario similarly destroyed Katamari Damacy, there should not have been such a massive discrepancy in battle brackets. Losing a big streak to Marvel vs. Capcom 2's upset was one thing. That's a legitimate upset. Losing a big streak to TYD in a match it was never going to lose is on you. It wasn't some weird fluke win, either, as most people in the oracle were dead-on in picking this.

And so, it must be invoked once again: HAW HAW CASUALS.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4131&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=63)

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---

## (2)The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion vs (15)SoulCalibur II 2010

_source: (2)The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion vs (15)SoulCalibur II 2010 (revid 69209)_

## Results

**Round 1**

Saturday, November 20, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northwest
- **Match \#:** 64
- **Match Date:** Saturday, November 20, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 11,909
- **Oracle Expectations:** The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion - 63.45% 103 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion - 79.80%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 544 The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion: 20058 SoulCalibur II: 3811

People joked on the podcast SoulCalibur might win because of Link being in the match pic. It's sad how GameFAQs has become so predictable with the Zelda series that stuff like this can actually be seriously discussed on the contest podcast.

Oftentimes you'll see the last match of the first round have shenanigans, but not this year. SoulCalibur 2 lied down like a good little 15 seed, closing out the first round in peace and ensuring no vote-in game won a single match. That latter point is actually disappointing, but it also speaks of good bracket design on Allen's part when all the higher seeds take care of business.

This match closed out what was a really crazy first round, with tons of upsets, close matches, weird results and good storylines. Sure there were a lot of predictable and boring matches, but not every match can be good.

Unfortunately, round 2 would not be nearly as entertaining. Very few of the matches were fun, and most of it was just heavyweights blowing away the games that pulled off the close upsets in round 1. In a way, this contest behaved exactly like the NCAAs in that respect.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4132&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=64)

• **Previous Match**       • **Next Match**

---

## (1)Fallout 3 vs (9)Deus Ex 2010

_source: (1)Fallout 3 vs (9)Deus Ex 2010 (revid 69210)_

## Results

**Round 2**

Sunday, November 21, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** North
- **Match \#:** 65
- **Match Date:** Sunday, November 21, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 17,383
- **Oracle Expectations:** Fallout 3 - 73.84% 95 for - 1 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Fallout 3 - 79.68%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 301 Fallout 3: 16438 Deus Ex: 1309

The case can be made here Deus Ex was SFFd to a certain degree, though in reality Deus Ex was just weak. This match was the first of many in the second round where those cute little upset winners from round 1 got destroyed against real competition, which is part of why round 2 was fairly mundane. The only thing to really take from this match were Fallout 3's trends, which show it's a day game. This would come up much later in the contest.

The big thing here was (finally!) the return of user-made match pictures. As a member of the Board 8 picsmith crew, it's always awesome to see user pics come back ^\_^

This year we weren't able to be quite as creative as in the past, though you can tell it's because Allen was taking this contest super mega serious. And that's more than okay.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4133&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=65)

• **Previous Match**       • **Next Match**

---

## (5)Batman: Arkham Asylum vs (4)Team Fortress 2 2010

_source: (5)Batman: Arkham Asylum vs (4)Team Fortress 2 2010 (revid 69211)_

## Results

**Round 2**

Sunday, November 21, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** North
- **Match \#:** 66
- **Match Date:** Sunday, November 21, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 9,964
- **Oracle Expectations:** Batman: Arkham Asylum - 58.96% 96 for - 3 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Batman: Arkham Asylum - 41.97%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 806 Batman: Arkham Asylum: 9802 Team Fortress 2: 6580

After Team Fortress 2's outstanding match against Fable -- one of the contest's best matches by any standard -- a lot of people became worried it could beat Batman. Batman was the guru favorite, but Team Fortress 2 was the higher seed and was generating a lot more buzz. There was also Batman being an unknown commodity, having only beaten Psychonauts.

Then the match started, things stayed even for a couple minutes and people thought we'd get another barnburner of a match. But after that, Batman just completely and thoroughly wrecked Team Fortress here. It was one of those matches where if you were arguing for the loser, you kind of felt like an idiot for thinking it had a chance. There was never any doubt here.

So naturally, fear started spreading around about a potential Batman \> Fallout upset. Some of you guys need to chillax, seriously.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4134&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=66)

• **Previous Match**       • **Next Match**

---

## (3)Uncharted 2: Among Thieves vs (11)Street Fighter IV 2010

_source: (3)Uncharted 2: Among Thieves vs (11)Street Fighter IV 2010 (revid 69212)_

## Results

**Round 2**

Monday, November 22, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** North
- **Match \#:** 67
- **Match Date:** Monday, November 22, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 2,945
- **Oracle Expectations:** Uncharted 2: Among Thieves - 53.15% 83 for - 17 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Uncharted 2: Among Thieves - 55.39%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 527 Uncharted 2: Among Thieves: 11290 Street Fighter IV: 4796

Earlier I brought up the concept of every contest having pyrrhic victories, and this was definitely one such match for Uncharted 2. Sure it won the match with no sweat, but take a look at what happened here. Early on, Uncharted was near 60% and started bleeding percentage all over the place. Then in the dead hours Street Fighter 4 started a prolonged stall before Uncharted recovered in the morning, though "recovered" might be the wrong term to use here.

I love Street Fighter 4, but I won't go and say it's some really strong game because it beat some 3D Sonic game on GameFAQs, a site that hates 3D Sonic. Yet this game scored 46% on Uncharted 2, which brought up all kinds of "lol PS3 exclusives" stuff. Uncharted 2 would end up not looking so bad, but after this match it was clear whichever Halo game it went up against was going to beat it -- especially given this was Halo in a day match it was dealing with.

This was also the only match all contest where Allen changed the match picture. When he first put this image up, Uncharted 2 had this image: <http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/gotd/gotd-067-orig.jpg>

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4135&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=67)

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## (7)Halo 3 vs (2)Halo: Combat Evolved 2010

_source: (7)Halo 3 vs (2)Halo: Combat Evolved 2010 (revid 69213)_

## Results

**Round 2**

Monday, November 22, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** North
- **Match \#:** 68
- **Match Date:** Monday, November 22, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 6,848
- **Oracle Expectations:** Halo: Combat Evolved - 57.46% 94 for - 7 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Halo: Combat Evolved - 41.28%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 563 Halo 3: 8678 Halo: Combat Evolved: 7466

Halo 3 being the favorite here honestly confused me, because Halo 1 thoroughly owns that series. Halo 1 wasn't just the Xbox mascot. It was the Xbox. I know we can look back on this match after the KH and Brawl duels and think Halo 3 being the favorite made sense, but it really didn't. It was never going to win this match, though the casuals obviously thought otherwise.

Alec doesn't SackUpOrShutUp™ for nothing, my friends.

The match obviously didn't end up a pure SFF killing, and Halo 3 actually started going up a little in percentage during the ASV. So let's give the game credit where it's due, as it easily could have rolled over and given us Link \> Ganondorf numbers under the right conditions. But it was still 57-43, which is a significant inter-series win for the elder statesman.

A lot of us got the hierarchy wrong within the MGS, Smash and Kingdom Hearts series, but one thing the majority of experts got right this contest was Halo 1 \> 3 \> 2. Granted I would trade in getting this right for a Melee win any day, but what can you do.

When the match ended, the stats page showed Ninja Gaiden somehow winning the match because that's just how ninjas roll. It was eventually fixed, but it was the best glitch all contest.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4136&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=68)

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---

## (1)Metroid Prime vs (9)Devil May Cry 3: Dante's Awakening 2010

_source: (1)Metroid Prime vs (9)Devil May Cry 3: Dante's Awakening 2010 (revid 69214)_

## Results

**Round 2**

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northeast
- **Match \#:** 69
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, November 23, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 11,163
- **Oracle Expectations:** Metroid Prime - 65.16% 101 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Metroid Prime - 71.69%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 328 Metroid Prime: 13357 Devil May Cry 3: Dante's Awakening: 3479

I've said previously that matches in the 65-35 range are the worst type of match, and this one was no different. Prime was never going to lose, and the only thing to learn here was something we already knew: Metroid has one hell of a board vote. DMC3 is not a strong game, yet it was able to bleed nearly 8% off of Metroid Prime from the freeze until the end. This potentially meant something for the whole Prime vs Tales/GoW/HL2 thing, but it was still a Nintendo game during a day match versus something lesser.

The best part of this match was the picture. GANON is a god of making good match pics when Allen actually decides to accept them, and this one was nearly perfect. One of the best pictures all contest, and maybe even the best.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4137&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=69)

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---

## (12)Mega Man 9 vs (4)Okami 2010

_source: (12)Mega Man 9 vs (4)Okami 2010 (revid 69215)_

## Results

**Round 2**

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northeast
- **Match \#:** 70
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, November 23, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 6,173
- **Oracle Expectations:** Okami - 59.72% 98 for - 4 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Okami - 36.41%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 603 Mega Man 9: 7110 Okami: 8500

Otherwise known as the match where Black Turtle's amazing season started coming into form, even more than when Mega Man 9 beat Demon's Souls. The guy said Mega Man 9 would give Okami a good match without winning, and it went out and did just this. Yes Okami won 56-44 in easy fashion, but Mega Man 9 made a few small cuts throughout the match and by any standard 56-44 counts as "giving the winner a good fight".

Whenever you need to see whether or not a match went outside consensus, you need only look at the oracle. And in the oracle, only about half of people picked Okami to score under 60%. This isn't a sign Okami did bad or anything; Mega Man 9 just did really, really well.

And yeah we're stuck looking at oracle stats to make obvious matches seem interesting. I really miss the days where we didn't have this massive amount of information out there.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4138&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=70)

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---

## (3)Tales of Symphonia vs (6)God of War 2010

_source: (3)Tales of Symphonia vs (6)God of War 2010 (revid 69216)_

## Results

**Round 2**

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northeast
- **Match \#:** 71
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, November 24, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 1,170
- **Oracle Expectations:** God of War - 53.47% 89 for - 12 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** God of War - 56.70%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 432 Tales of Symphonia: 4361 God of War: 11870

So hey, remember this match?

People have been arguing about where God of War stood in that match for a year now, and getting Tales of Symphonia vs God of War 1 on 1 to settle it a year later was wonderful. Even if Allen didn't set this up intentionally, he should just come out and say he did.

The match lived up to the hype, too, at least until the morning vote hit. Tales of Symphonia took the board vote, but was unable to run away with the match because of bracket votes. And then overnight, the match was a prolonged, deadlocked, oftentimes painful stall. I'll often exaggerate a bit and say matches were deadlocked when they just fluctuated between 100 vote leads for awhile, but this was a legitimate deadlock. Go look at the graph and update chart if you don't believe me. The two games might as well have been tied for 5 straight hours.

And those five hours were glorious, especially given both games were likely to be day vote beasts so the potential for a true classic was there. The reactions across the board were great, too, if only because the Tales fans were much happier than the God of War fans. Tales, despite the characters collectively having one contest win (a Lloyd \> Wesker match that probably goes the other way today), has clutched up in the past. God of War meanwhile was known for choking it up. The LOL 4-ways aside, nothing from God of War could ever get out of the second round.

So for five hours when God of War was unable to do much of anything, the fans truly feared it would be another close loss.

And then the morning vote hit. You know how the underdog hangs around for awhile in a sporting event (think the NCAA tournament, since that's what our contests are based on), then the stronger team just starts dominating after a certain point? That's what happened here once the morning vote came around. God of War turned a 5 hour deadlock into a total laugher, taking the morning vote and going on to win by nearly 1200 votes. It was such a clear and massive swing that there can be no doubt which of these two games is the stronger of the two, though Tales of Symphonia deserves a lot of credit anyway for how it performed here. It was one of the best matches of the contest.

At the end of the day, the people who felt like God of War was held down by San Andreas in that 2009 match were right. Maybe the overlap wasn't massive, as proven by God of War having so much trouble with ToS 1 on 1, but it clearly made some difference.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4139&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=71)

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---

## (10)Grand Theft Auto III vs (2)Half-Life 2 2010

_source: (10)Grand Theft Auto III vs (2)Half-Life 2 2010 (revid 69217)_

## Results

**Round 2**

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northeast
- **Match \#:** 72
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, November 24, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 5,788
- **Oracle Expectations:** Half-Life 2 - 60.09% 99 for - 3 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Half-Life 2 - 55.90%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 347 Grand Theft Auto III: 4973 Half-Life 2: 11212

Grand Theft Auto had a terrible contest, but GTA3 is exempt from this criticism. All contest long people postulated 3 might be the strongest in the series, and I think they might be right. At least for this contest. When you think "Game of the Decade", not many games deserve that type of respect more than GTA3.

So when GTA3 went out and had a pretty good match against the heavy favorite Half-Life 2, it wasn't a major surprise. Even people who despise the GTA series respect 3, and that respect probably outweighed the anti-votes GTA gets in every match.

Even more telling here is how Half-Life 2 slowly bled percentage all match. It meant nothing in terms of beating GTA3, but it had to deal with both God of War and Metroid Prime in day matches. HL2 was the guru favorite to get out of this division, but the potential was now there for it to get upset one of two ways.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4140&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=72)

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---

## (1)Super Smash Bros. Melee vs (9)The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind 2010

_source: (1)Super Smash Bros. Melee vs (9)The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind 2010 (revid 69218)_

## Results

**Round 2**

Thursday, November 25, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** East
- **Match \#:** 73
- **Match Date:** Thursday, November 25, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 17,587
- **Oracle Expectations:** Super Smash Bros. Melee - 72.95% 102 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Smash Bros. Melee - 70.72%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Super Smash Bros. Melee Super Smash Bros. Melee: 13860 The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind: 2540

On the surface, this was Melee's second blowout win in a row. Look a bit deeper however and you could see how much trouble Melee would be in a couple rounds. It's not just Melee starting near 75% and falling down to about what FFX scored on Morrowind in the LOL 4-ways, but it was also the trends.

Melee vs Brawl was a night match, and the Gamecube was virtually nonexistent in Europe compared to the Wii. Melee did fairly fairly overnight in two matches to this point, while evidence suggested Brawl could do decently there. And during the morning, Melee only went up around a half percent in this match. With Brawl killing every day match, this suggested Melee would have an issue coming back if Brawl were to take Europe.

Unless you were a believer the Melee fanbase would rally their asses off or Morrowind boosted inexplicably between 2009 and 2010, Brawl was basically the favorite going in.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4141&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=73)

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---

## (5)Perfect Dark vs (4)Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare 2010

_source: (5)Perfect Dark vs (4)Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare 2010 (revid 69219)_

## Results

**Round 2**

Thursday, November 25, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** East
- **Match \#:** 74
- **Match Date:** Thursday, November 25, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 5,198
- **Oracle Expectations:** Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare - 58.69% 101 for - 2 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare - 75.37%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 356 Perfect Dark: 1978 Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare: 13629

There was a mild chance Perfect Dark could pull the upset here. And though it didn't happen, it still went out and embarrassed Call of Duty 4 like few other games have ever been embarrassed in wins.

Perfect Dark may be an FPS on the Nintendo 64, but it's no Goldeneye. We'd never seen any real proof of the game having any strength before this poll, and frankly there's still no proof. Call of Duty 4 is just crap in polls. The game went on to only do marginally better against Melee than Morrowind did, and I'm not so sure Morrowind couldn't win that match.

And all this was during a day match with a picture imbalance. I know Ngamer likes my Perfect Dark picture (and he's the \#1 PD fan on Board 8), but I didn't like it too much. And even still, it did fairly well here. Call of Duty hate runs pretty deep on this site, and it'll be funny in 10 years to see how badly Black Ops does compared to the other 9 sequels.

F\*\*\* Activi\$ion so much.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4142&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=74)

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---

## (3)Pokémon Diamond/Pearl/Platinum vs (11)Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance 2010

_source: (3)Pokémon Diamond/Pearl/Platinum vs (11)Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance 2010 (revid 69220)_

## Results

**Round 2**

Friday, November 26, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** East
- **Match \#:** 75
- **Match Date:** Friday, November 26, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 9,740
- **Oracle Expectations:** Pokémon Diamond/Pearl/Platinum - 59.57% 99 for - 2 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Pokémon Diamond/Pearl/Platinum - 70.25%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 340 Pokémon Diamond/Pearl/Platinum: 14248 Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance: 1329

When the best part of a match is the picture, the match probably sucked. This was no exception, as it was one of the round 2 matches that existed solely for a big game to blow the doors off of a game fresh off of pulling a round 1 upset. Though in Fire Emblem's case, the gurus simply got it wrong while the casuals correctly predicted it. When it went up against a game that wasn’t bound to finish dead last in the LOL x-stats, it performed as expected from the beginning.

Though with that said, Pokémon didn't exactly go out here and set the world on fire. For those banking on an HGSS boost to get GSC into the finals, this match was bad news. Or for guys like Allen who picked DPP to beat Brawl, it was really bad news.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4143&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=75)

• **Previous Match**       • **Next Match**

---

## (7)Valkyria Chronicles vs (2)Super Smash Bros. Brawl 2010

_source: (7)Valkyria Chronicles vs (2)Super Smash Bros. Brawl 2010 (revid 69221)_

## Results

**Round 2**

Friday, November 26, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** East
- **Match \#:** 76
- **Match Date:** Friday, November 26, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 26,735
- **Oracle Expectations:** Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 75.96% 103 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 80.44%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 173 Valkyria Chronicles: 1091 Super Smash Bros. Brawl: 14868

Menji makes a lot of lulz pictures (and not the good type of lulz), but his Brawl picture here was awesome even if it is just a badly resized version of Nintendolife's banner: <http://www.push-start.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/super_smash_bros_brawl_2_1600x1200.jpg>

Well technically I guess that means Nintendolife made an awesome picture, so it's HAW HAW MENJI again! One of the best inside jokes all contest, I tells you.

It was also the second match in a row where the picture was better than the match, in a block of four straight matches like this. Round 2 really, really sucked. That will happen often in a seeded tournament, but... man.

Worth noting about the actual match is Valkyria's clutch use of DAT TOP OPTION was useless against Brawl in terms of winning the match, but this was one of two matches all contest where Brawl actually looked bad. The other was against Fallout 3, but weird stuff always happens late in contests so it barely counts. If you compare the first three rounds, this was really the only one where Melee and Brawl looked even. Brawl looked better everywhere else.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4144&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=76)

• **Previous Match**       • **Next Match**

---

## (1)Super Mario Galaxy vs (8)Pokémon Ruby/Sapphire/Emerald 2010

_source: (1)Super Mario Galaxy vs (8)Pokémon Ruby/Sapphire/Emerald 2010 (revid 69222)_

## Results

**Round 2**

Saturday, November 27, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southeast
- **Match \#:** 77
- **Match Date:** Saturday, November 27, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 7,601
- **Oracle Expectations:** Super Mario Galaxy - 59.85% 102 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Mario Galaxy - 55.52%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 464 Super Mario Galaxy: 11529 Pokémon Ruby/Sapphire/Emerald: 3328

Galaxy ended up having a really good contest and Pokémon ended up having a really bad contest, but you wouldn't know that by looking at this match. Forget the final score for a second. Only 55% of people had Galaxy winning two matches? That is some serious lack of respect, even for a game more than deserving of a Game of the Decade title boost or whatever we're calling it.

And then you look at the actual score and just shake your head. Failing to break 60% on RSE when you start comfortably over is embarrassing, and it falls in line with that Nintendo series poll where Pokémon actually finished above Mario.

So of course Galaxy goes out and shocks us against Zelda while Pokémon goes and craps the bed.

This contest.

To be fair the oracle mostly got this right, but this was back when Galaxy was getting no respect. Now, it's clear Galaxy got a contest title boost and just had a weird match along the way. It's reasonable Galaxy was stuck with the LOL Wii stuff and ran into something that could take advantage of it.

And since I made fun of Menji's picture last match, let me just say this one rocked face. He did both sides, and the whole image is damn awesome.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4145&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=77)

• **Previous Match**       • **Next Match**

---

## (5)Dragon Age: Origins vs (4)The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess 2010

_source: (5)Dragon Age: Origins vs (4)The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess 2010 (revid 69223)_

## Results

**Round 2**

Saturday, November 27, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southeast
- **Match \#:** 78
- **Match Date:** Saturday, November 27, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 19,918
- **Oracle Expectations:** The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess - 64.95% 102 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess - 68.26%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 429 Dragon Age: Origins: 3297 The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess: 11369

Not even the casuals got tricked by the weird seeding in this division, as even they favored Zelda more heavily than any other game to make it out of the division. This was also the fourth match in a row where the picture was better than the match, so people were getting super bored at this point and needed something good to happen soon. The next match would bring that, kind of.

Worth noting here is Dragon Age got kind of screwed in bracket placement with all these western games causing damage. Fallout 3, Half-Life 2, Oblivion and others all did some things this contest, while Dragon Age was stuck facing the biggest Zelda of the Gamecube-Wii era in round 2. Not every game can get good bracket favor, naturally, but it really feels like Dragon Age could have done good things in a different place on such an RPG-heavy web site.

People also looked at this and claimed our 2009 GOTY polls were terrible, but it's Zelda. You don't F with Zelda 1 on 1. Besides, we had a much funnier flagship for LOL 2009 than Dragon Age.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4146&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=78)

• **Previous Match**       • **Next Match**

---

## (3)BioShock vs (6)Kingdom Hearts II 2010

_source: (3)BioShock vs (6)Kingdom Hearts II 2010 (revid 69224)_

## Results

**Round 2**

Sunday, November 28, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southeast
- **Match \#:** 79
- **Match Date:** Sunday, November 28, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 5,426
- **Oracle Expectations:** Kingdom Hearts II - 58.91% 103 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Kingdom Hearts II - 29.25%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 584 BioShock: 7239 Kingdom Hearts II: 7157

BioShock was never going to win this match, but that doesn't mean it didn't put on a great show in its short stay this contest. It goes from annihilating Star Wars to scoring nearly 44% on Kingdom Hearts 2, while being the unexpected bracket and battle favorite at that. This is as good an example of contest title boost as you'll see all contest, and it shows how smart the people participating in this contest really were. BioShock generates massive amounts of respect all over the internet, especially compared to Kingdom Hearts 2, and it really showed here.

All that said, Kingdom Hearts 2 still won the match with ease and put up 56% in spite of everyone going against it. This didn't mean a whole lot in preparation for the Kingdom Hearts duel, but maybe it should have. A lot of things went in BioShock's favor this match, but it still easily lost. Sounds like a certain round 3 match involving Kingdom Hearts 2.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4147&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=79)

• **Previous Match**       • **Next Match**

---

## (7)Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 vs (2)Kingdom Hearts 2010

_source: (7)Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 vs (2)Kingdom Hearts 2010 (revid 69225)_

## Results

**Round 2**

Sunday, November 28, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southeast
- **Match \#:** 80
- **Match Date:** Sunday, November 28, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 20,345
- **Oracle Expectations:** Kingdom Hearts - 61.43% 102 for - 1 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Kingdom Hearts - 38.31%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 378 Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2: 7524 Kingdom Hearts: 7292

The 2009 Game of the Year poll on our site ended up laughably bad, but the mascot of it tanked the worst of all. It goes out and does nothing in a win against Dissidia, then gets itself doubled by Kingdom Hearts.

A doubling may sound huge, but look at the past matches for those characters, especially Sora. Kingdom Hearts never blows anything out, and never gets blown out itself, much like Master Chief. For Kingdom Hearts to double anything, much less our 2009 GOTY winner, is thoroughly embarrassing. I know this site hates Call of Duty and for good reason, but my goodness. What wastes of space those games were in this.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4148&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=80)

• **Previous Match**       • **Next Match**

---

## (1)Final Fantasy X vs (9)Borderlands 2010

_source: (1)Final Fantasy X vs (9)Borderlands 2010 (revid 69226)_

## Results

**Round 2**

Monday, November 29, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** South
- **Match \#:** 81
- **Match Date:** Monday, November 29, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 18,300
- **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy X - 71.81% 93 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Final Fantasy X - 76.32%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 250 Final Fantasy X: 12874 Borderlands: 2130

Welcome to the one of the two good matches Final Fantasy X had all contest. It's not just scoring a blowout on Borderlands; it was actually winning the board vote and staying mostly consistent all match. This is a far cry from how the Final Fantasy series -- especially 7 -- has been tanking board votes left and right.

People figured this was FFX waking up and that Viewtiful Joe was possibly more legit than previously thought, but I think it's more no one caring about Boredlands. Just look at what happened to FFX in every other match for proof. So it was a good win, but it wasn't the norm for FFX. Which is a shame, because the FF series used to be on par with Nintendo. Now, it's the clear second tier.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4149&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=81)

• **Previous Match**       • **Next Match**

---

## (5)Golden Sun vs (4)Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas 2010

_source: (5)Golden Sun vs (4)Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas 2010 (revid 69227)_

## Results

**Round 2**

Monday, November 29, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** South
- **Match \#:** 82
- **Match Date:** Monday, November 29, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 4,246
- **Oracle Expectations:** Golden Sun - 49.31% 44 for - 52 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Golden Sun - 16.05%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 735 Golden Sun: 3056 Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas: 10464

Golden Sun winning this match was obviously a massive upset among casuals, but the board more and more knew better as the match grew closer. And for the few left over holding out hope for San Andreas, the match picture just murdered that. Golden Sun couldn't have possibly looked any better, and San Andreas couldn't have possibly looked any worse.

And then you add in all the other factors just blatantly favoring Golden Sun... what else was really going to happen? The site is anti-Grand Theft Auto, heavily in favor of RPGs, and the match took place on the release day of Dark Dawn with a full-page ad on the home page. This felt like one of those college preconference games where a school like Florida pays 500k to some tiny school to come in and get their asses whipped, except this was a legitimate contest match.

So of course Golden Sun was going to win. Sure the final percentages were close and San Andreas made some cuts here and there, but by and large this match was never close. It's not really the fault of RacistFAQs, either, so much as extraordinarily bad timing for GTA. Run this next year under even conditions, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if GTA won.

The true entertainment from this match came in the form of all the whining. No other match, not Deus Ex or final, drew out so much complaining as this one. Toss out Albion's topic (you know, the legendary "This is why GameFAQs is made fun of" topic from someone with a list of 300 beaten RPGs, from a guy who spends more time on this site than anyone else) since it wasn't serious, and you're still left over with people feeling like the poll legitimately offends them. I didn't save any examples because I didn't really care to, but I'm sure you guys remember most of them. Whining, for better and worse, is a huge part of every good contest and we got a lot of it here.

But this wasn't really the match for it, since one look at the home page on match day should have shown you how this would turn out. This wasn't even the worst result this contest, let alone ever.

## Match Trends

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## (3)Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic vs (6)Fire Emblem 2010

_source: (3)Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic vs (6)Fire Emblem 2010 (revid 69228)_

## Results

**Round 2**

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** South
- **Match \#:** 83
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, November 30, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 8,121
- **Oracle Expectations:** Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic - 58.79% 96 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic - 66.81%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 499 Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic: 12149 Fire Emblem: 2034

Both Fire Emblem games in the field managed to win a match, and both of them went out in round 2 and managed to avoid getting killed. They also both partly exposed the games they went up against.

I know Fire Emblem did respectably in the series contest, but let's not kid ourselves into thinking the majority of that series' strength comes from Smash Bros. The games on their own aren't very strong, so for KOTOR to struggle for a time to get over 60% (the morning vote was much kinder to it than the overnight vote) was a pretty bad performance. It more or less killed any hope of a KOTOR \> FF9 upset, even during a day match when western games are getting a lot more respect on this site.

The match we really needed to see this contest was KOTOR vs Halo 1, just to settle the debate over which is the strongest Xbox game.

## Match Trends

## External Links

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## (7)Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 3 vs (2)Final Fantasy IX 2010

_source: (7)Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 3 vs (2)Final Fantasy IX 2010 (revid 69229)_

## Results

**Round 2**

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** South
- **Match \#:** 84
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, November 30, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 19,788
- **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy IX - 69.41% 96 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Final Fantasy IX - 61.99%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 503 Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 3: 2432 Final Fantasy IX: 11208

Holy crap, it's a match where Final Fantasy 9 didn't thoroughly tank during the day vote!

Granted the opponent being embarrassingly weak helped, but still. FF9 went down only a tiny little bit, which is good. We're making progress. Other than that, nothing notable at all about this match. It was another in the long line of round 2 matches where a game pulling an upset round 1 got clobbered in round 2.

It was also another match where the picture was better than the actual match. KP makes the best pictures of anyone.

## Match Trends

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## (1)Resident Evil 4 vs (8)Grand Theft Auto: Vice City 2010

_source: (1)Resident Evil 4 vs (8)Grand Theft Auto: Vice City 2010 (revid 69230)_

## Results

**Round 2**

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southwest
- **Match \#:** 85
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, December 1, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 12,097
- **Oracle Expectations:** Resident Evil 4 - 64.16% 96 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Resident Evil 4 - 69.55%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 483 Resident Evil 4: 10679 Grand Theft Auto: Vice City: 3254

What a difference a few hours can make.

The match starts, RE4 is over 70% and people start going nuts about how it can beat FFX and make a miracle run to win the contest. And then it starts bleeding percentage. A lot. For the rest of the match. All the way down to 65.69%. Short sentences.

Grand Theft Auto overall had a terrible contest, but it actually got to go out on a high note in its final match. It bled the hell out of RE4, causing Sir Chris to go on the podcast and call RE4 the turd of the week. FFD might have killed him had this been said in person, but Chris was right to a point. That's an awful percentage bleed, and it was difficult to imagine RE4 making some miracle run after this.

Oh it would make it to FFX, no doubt about that, but winning was out of the question.

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## (12)Dead Rising vs (4)Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4 2010

_source: (12)Dead Rising vs (4)Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4 2010 (revid 69231)_

## Results

**Round 2**

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southwest
- **Match \#:** 86
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, December 1, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 251
- **Oracle Expectations:** Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4 - 51.08% 61 for - 35 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4 - 27.47%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 751 Dead Rising: 6230 Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4: 6405

Looking at the first round and how Dead Rising just took off once the morning vote hit against TWEWY \[decimal system\], one could argue it had the advantage here against a similarly cult RPG. But the Persona 4 fanbase cared a lot more about this contest than the TWEWY fanbase. It single-handedly got Biolizard onto the podcast and liked by Board 8, after all.

Looking back on it, Dead Rising's big mistake was not blowing Persona 4 out quickly. By letting the Persona fans build up a 350 vote lead and using the ASV to slowly come back, it lost. When the ASV hit and Dead Rising started one of the most arduous comeback attempts ever, you had the feeling Persona fans would just rally at the end anyway.

So even when Dead Rising took over the lead and started slowly building it -- and its lead peaked at a mere 110 votes around 7 -- there was this sense Persona would come back no matter what. This was not a fanbase that was going to sit idly by and watch their flagship title lose close.

And sure enough, Persona started taking over the match more and more as the evening wore on. Dead Rising's hold on the match was lessening, and suddenly there was 1 hour to go with Persona 4 having a 150 vote lead. It was done from there, because simply put this site does not care about Dead Rising. Run this same match next year when Dead Rising 2 isn't fresh off the shelves and Persona 4 could potentially score over 53%.

Given how close this was I suppose we could credit the picture for Persona's win as well, because KP absolutely killed it here. It was nice seeing a Persona 4 picture that wasn't YELLOW YELLOW YELLOW YELLOW YELLOW YELLOW YELLOW YELLOW.

## Match Trends

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## (3)Portal vs (6)Final Fantasy XII 2010

_source: (3)Portal vs (6)Final Fantasy XII 2010 (revid 69232)_

## Results

**Round 2**

Thursday, December 2, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southwest
- **Match \#:** 87
- **Match Date:** Thursday, December 2, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 8,232
- **Oracle Expectations:** Portal - 53.65% 79 for - 16 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Portal - 49.95%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 518 Portal: 8999 Final Fantasy XII: 4701

Can you believe this match was heavily debated before the contest? Had the guru picked FF12 while half the site picked Portal, the gurus would have deserved every bashing for following the LOL x-stats that had FF12 equal to Half-Life 2 or whatever it was from the LOL 4-ways.

How about we just LOL Final Fantasy 12 instead? Few matches in contests will go exactly as each entrant deserves, but FF12 getting its doors blown off by Portal was very much a well-deserved result. FF12 was a terrible game in my opinion, what with the single player MMO stuff and the no plot and boring environments that literally put me to sleep and etc etc. Meanwhile you get Portal, one of the decade's true masterpieces just killing it.

Very few games can bleed percentage all over the place and still end up looking good, but Portal going from 65% to below 60% by match's end was just fine. This was still a blowout, and a damn proper one. F\*\*\* Final Fantasy 12.

This was a mother f\*\*\*ing triumph.

## Match Trends

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## (7)Skies of Arcadia vs (2)Mass Effect 2010

_source: (7)Skies of Arcadia vs (2)Mass Effect 2010 (revid 69233)_

## Results

**Round 2**

Thursday, December 2, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southwest
- **Match \#:** 88
- **Match Date:** Thursday, December 2, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 12,560
- **Oracle Expectations:** Mass Effect - 62.68% 97 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Mass Effect - 78.36%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 412 Skies of Arcadia: 1277 Mass Effect: 12386

The final match of this division's second round was yet another one of those matches where real competition destroyed one of those cute little upset winners from round 1. It was nice Skies pulled off the win over Baldur's Gate 2 and all, but Mass Effect with the ME2 boost is the big leagues.

I've said many times the predictable 65-35 type of match is the worst kind, and it is. Portal doing that sort of thing to FF12 is one thing, since we didn't see it coming. But a predictable match going that way makes you really thankful for the 12 hour format so we can just get all these out of the way as quickly as possible.

I'm sure one could gleam Skies being legit based on this match and Mass Effect's loss to Portal, but I haven't played Skies yet so I really don’t care.

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## (1)Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater vs (8)Marvel vs. Capcom 2 2010

_source: (1)Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater vs (8)Marvel vs. Capcom 2 2010 (revid 69234)_

## Results

**Round Two**

Friday, December 3, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** West
- **Match \#:** 89
- **Match Date:** Friday, December 3, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 10,218
- **Oracle Expectations:** Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater - 65.29% 87 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater - 61.76%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 477 Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater: 10719 Marvel vs. Capcom 2: 2631

This was the first of several MGS-related pictures a guy named Mr_Big_Boss would make, which shows Allen's sense of humor above all else. That or he actually likes MGS melty art, either or.

A lot of people started getting worried about MGS3 during this match, but we know now that it was the one MGS title in this contest that did anything notable. And that was just luck, because Shadow of the Colossus probably completes the trifecta if it gets this game during the day.

But at the time of this match, I think it was more people not willing to take MvC2 seriously. The SRK rally against Mario wasn't successful by accident, and it's within reason this game is our strongest 2D fighter outside the Smash series.

And yes Smash games are fighters -- dumb elitists be damned.

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## (5)Paper Mario vs (4)World of Warcraft 2010

_source: (5)Paper Mario vs (4)World of Warcraft 2010 (revid 69235)_

## Results

**Round Two**

Friday, December 3, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** West
- **Match \#:** 90
- **Match Date:** Friday, December 3, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 10,103
- **Oracle Expectations:** Paper Mario - 54.90% 78 for - 10 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Paper Mario - 13.73%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 600 Paper Mario: 2771 World of Warcraft: 10086

HAW HAW CASUALS

The casuals honestly did have a pretty decent contest, but this match was their Waterloo. WoW getting 1 seed respect from the casuals on GameFAQs of all places was supremely dumb, and it's a shame WoW wasn't a 1 seed to Paper Mario's 8 or 9. One of the few things missing from these contests are a 1 seed losing to an 8/9 in a legit NCAA format, and it would have easily happened here.

We already knew WoW was a hated game on this site, but to not even put up a fight against a second rate Mario RPG title is embarrassing. Not that Paper Mario is bad or anything, but SMRPG is the flagship of that series. Though given how Mario Mafia turned out, I almost have to play the games out of tribute. The Shadow Queen has become one of my favorite characters and I don't know the first thing about her \<\_\<

The match was also hilarious for the whining it drew out all over the internet, but I'll never get why people love World of Warcraft so much. It ruined Blizzard and has wholly unethical reward systems that are more addictive than some controlled substances. Even now, people are willingly sacrificing their social lives and getting fatter playing Cataclysm instead of... you know, going outside or something. It's an embarrassment, and though gaming is getting cooler socially it will never be fully accepted while stuff like this still goes on.

Have you ever been stuck in a room full of WoW players? These people literally cannot talk about anything else, because most of them don't have anything else. It goes to my theory on why gamers are so afraid to lose: It's the only avenue most have for accomplishments, because a lot of them clearly aren't winning much in any other avenue of life -- much like anime clubs at any college. I'm sure Board 8's multitude of college students have seen these people in action. To that end, any time WoW gets embarrassed in a poll is a good poll. WoW actually can be considered a game of the decade, but for all the wrong reasons. In my opinion, the best thing to ever happen in World of Warcraft was the funeral raid. It proved every single possible thing wrong with that fanbase, all in the span of a few short minutes.

And as a note, I really did try getting on Allen to change that picture. He was either too busy or didn't care due to the match being a blowout, but it's not above WoW players to think a 59-41 poll could have gone the other way with a different Paper Mario picture. Keep on proving those stereotypes, folks.

## Match Trends

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## (3)Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots vs (6)Diablo II 2010

_source: (3)Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots vs (6)Diablo II 2010 (revid 69236)_

## Results

**Round Two**

Saturday, December 4, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** West
- **Match \#:** 91
- **Match Date:** Saturday, December 4, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 3,936
- **Oracle Expectations:** Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots - 57.92% 87 for - 1 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots - 48.69%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 550 Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots: 8292 Diablo II: 4576

It's funny how obsessed people are with me.

No really, they are. All throughout the WoW loss, people whined and bitched and moaned about my submitting a TYD picture by accident in a predictable match that went 60/40. In the very next match, you didn't hear one peep about someone else submitting an incorrect Diablo 2 picture in a 55-45 match, but you can bet your ass people would have kept pacifier companies recession-proof had I done that. Never change, Board 8. I have much more than this subject, but I'm saving it for the Prime/Half-Life 2 writeup.

MGS4 started off fairly poorly in this match, and it would only get worse after the slow start. Diablo 2 bled MGS's percentage all throughout the night, and by the end it was clear this wasn't the same Brawl-slayer MGS4 from last year. It was something much weaker, and in the very next match we would see exactly how much trouble this series was in.

But let me give Diablo 2 some hats-off praise here. Western RPGs have trended way up on GameFAQs for quite awhile, but Diablo 2 remains the best in its genre. That game was the perfect storm of gameplay, community, and a soma-based reward system without having to sacrifice your entire life to get things. When in doubt, buy it. Sure the economy was eventually based off duped Stones of Jordan and Dupewords, but it all added to the fun. Even now I still post on d2jsp (the best forum on the internet) just to see what's been doing on (they're all waiting on Diablo 3).

Diablo 2 deserves a salute. Big Boss agrees. <http://www.eatchain.com/garbage/old%20big%20boss%20salute111.jpg>

## Match Trends

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## (7)Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty vs (2)Shadow of the Colossus 2010

_source: (7)Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty vs (2)Shadow of the Colossus 2010 (revid 69237)_

## Results

**Round Two**

Saturday, December 4, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** West
- **Match \#:** 92
- **Match Date:** Saturday, December 4, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 45
- **Oracle Expectations:** Shadow of the Colossus - 43.99% 3 for - 85 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Shadow of the Colossus - 38.86%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 552 Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty: 6256 Shadow of the Colossus: 6258

It must be done for the sake of fairness: HAW HAW GURUS. We suck.

First and foremost, I firmly believe Shadow of the Colossus wins this match a lot easier if it isn't faced with the biggest picture disadvantage of the entire contest. That's the Snake picture that allowed him to score like 2000% on Sora, paired up against god-knows-what-that-is on the SotC side. I'm the biggest MGS2 fan there is, and even I think it would have been highway robbery had it finished the deal and won close. That picture is beyond unfair, though thankfully SotC would get it all back in future images, not to mention winning this match in the best way possible.

People kept expecting me to lose my s\*\*\* over Shadow of the Colossus's run this contest, but there was honestly no reason to. When you follow contests for the better part of a decade, anything that destroys the norm this hard is awesome. I won't magically like the game or anything (unless the HD treatment is kind to it), but this contest convinced me to finally stop bashing it all the time. The game deserves some respect, you know? Ngamer gave me surprise Infidel of the Week for being so classy about this match, which was one of the funniest bits of the season on the podcast.

And finally, for my money this was the third best match all contest behind Majora's final two. Brawl/Melee was a letdown, TF2 \> Fable only meant one point and no one cares about the Persona 4 fourpack of bore. But this set off the contest's Cinderella run, and with the perfect storm to boot. Even with that awful picture, SotC was able to hold serve because of a multitude of things -- three MGS games in matches in two days, MGS2 being so mixed with whether people want to like it or not, and a clear contest title boost. If you looked at the MGS and ICO matches prior to this, there was no reason for SotC to win. But it did.

More than that was the way it won. After MGS2 got a minor early lead, SotC came back and took over. With how bad the entire MGS series is during the day, it was clearly in for some trouble. But for whatever reason, SotC was unable to take full advantage for the longest possible time. Before long, the poll was a war of attrition and this actually favored Metal Gear Solid. MGS almost always seems to pull out these 13th hour "rallies" to win matches, so the longer this stayed even, the more it favored MGS.

I'd go into how nuts the whole day-long deadlock was, but we have graphs and update charts for you to see that yourselves. No reason for me to get into drawn-out, boring narratives about it. Though at almost every turn, there was this sense SotC was getting ready to build this massive lead. At one point it seemed like this would actually happen, during the evening of all times. The evening and second night votes are when MGS usually takes off, yet SotC was the one able to go bonkers during this time frame. I say "bonkers" because it was able to build a lead of 188 votes, which is our new closest wire-to-wire record.

There was one other hilarious note to make about all this stuff, which is what happened at 5. SotC had a lead of 97 votes, and MGS2 then won seven straight updates without taking the lead. Then SotC just hovered there for awhile before the evening vote push.

We all know what happened from there, MGS2 whittled down the lead like clockwork with the second night vote, looking once again like it would pull a phantom undeserved win out of its ass. And then slow cutting turned into a 50 vote swing with 30 minutes left, which might have been MGS2's biggest mistake. Had MGS waited until the final couple updates to make a big push like it always does, it might have survived here. But taking the lead with such a long time remaining gave SotC the chance to counter-rally and prevent MGS from building any sort of lead at all.

And then over the final 7 minutes, Shadow of the Colossus laid down the boomhammer to win this thing. Outstanding win from what is honestly a more deserving game than MGS2 given the contest's title. Seriously. It was also nice to see MGS feel the sting of a 13th hour push, for once. I love the series, but those close wins all going one way gets old. Let MGS fans feel cheated, for once. With this match and MvC2 rallying past Mario, we've now seen every big entity in contests FEEL THE BURN. And yes we're stuck turning to some awful Wii title to make sure Mario feels screwed over. Sad, isn't it? I also do feel like Link losing in 2003 to Cloud and 2007 to L-Block counts, just to make sure everything comes full circle.

It was an outstanding match, plus Shadow of the Colossus wasn't done after this, and on top of all that the casuals totally embarrassed us here. I love being a guru, but it's nice to see us crap out now and then in a big match. Also, check out how close those battle stats are. That has to be the contest's closest, right?

## Match Trends

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## (1)The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask vs (8)Chrono Cross 2010

_source: (1)The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask vs (8)Chrono Cross 2010 (revid 69238)_

## Results

**Round Two**

Sunday, December 5, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northwest
- **Match \#:** 93
- **Match Date:** Sunday, December 5, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 15,091
- **Oracle Expectations:** The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - 65.69% 88 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - 70.99%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 181 The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask: 11245 Chrono Cross: 1895

If you've been reading these in order, you already know where I'm going with this. Pretty much every 65-35 match sucks, and pretty much every match where the picture is better than the match sucks. The match existed to blow away some random 1 point winner from the first round. Et cetera. Though in fairness, that is a damn good match picture. Zen and I actually submitted the exact same image for like the 50th time, which proves that whole great minds thinking alike thing.

The only thing to really draw from this match was the Majora/GSC comparison, as GSC now had a number to aim for against Mario Kart Wii. If GSC failed to break 70% in that match, the whole debate was over.

## Match Trends

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## (12)Mario Kart Wii vs (4)Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal 2010

_source: (12)Mario Kart Wii vs (4)Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal 2010 (revid 69239)_

## Results

**Round Two**

Sunday, December 5, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northwest
- **Match \#:** 94
- **Match Date:** Sunday, December 5, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 23,512
- **Oracle Expectations:** Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal - 67.71% 88 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal - 43.48%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 272 Mario Kart Wii: 2803 Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal: 9675

I'm obviously biased, but that GSC picture is the best singular picture in rounds 2 and 3 (before freeform started). But this picture isn't the best one from round 2, though, that honor goes to Prime vs DMC3.

As for the actual match, GSC went out and outdid the Majora \> Chrono Cross percentage by enough to keep that match debatable. It was certainly a much better effort by GSC than that embarrassing percentage bleed against Advance Wars, so to this point it was fair to say the match was up in the air. Obviously it didn't turn out that way, but those of us with GSC still had those laughable 4-way polls to fall back on.

And of course, we have more LOL Wii action going on. One of the Wii's flagship titles from a popular series can't even get 30% in a poll against Pokémon, really? What in the F happened to the Wii? What happened to Mario Kart, for that matter? Did people finally realize the series isn't any good past the N64?

## Match Trends

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## (3)The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker vs (6)Assassin's Creed II 2010

_source: (3)The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker vs (6)Assassin's Creed II 2010 (revid 69240)_

## Results

**Round Two**

Monday, December 6, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northwest
- **Match \#:** 95
- **Match Date:** Monday, December 6, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 8,727
- **Oracle Expectations:** The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - 63.14% 89 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - 44.41%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 276 The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker: 8695 Assassin's Creed II: 3881

It's rare you see Zelda ever get embarrassed, especially 1 on 1, but that's what happened here. Wind Waker started this poll off over 70%, and was bled all the way down to below 61%. This simply does not happen to Zelda games, so either Wind Waker hate hasn't fully died down, Assassin's Creed 2 is really legit, or a combination of both.

Notable here is we finally have a decent read on the Assassin's Creed series. Altair's contest matches are all about what picture he has, no one knew who Ezio was in the last character battle (Simon Belmont, a 15 seed, was favored to beat him in brackets) and Assassin's Creed's loss to a weakened MGS4 doesn't really matter. But AC2 bleeding 10% off of a main line Zelda title? That should open some eyes for future contests.

## Match Trends

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## (7)Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door vs (2)The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion 2010

_source: (7)Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door vs (2)The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion 2010 (revid 69241)_

## Results

**Round Two**

Monday, December 6, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northwest
- **Match \#:** 96
- **Match Date:** Monday, December 6, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 5,848
- **Oracle Expectations:** The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion - 54.21% 80 for - 9 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion - 53.37%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 304 Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door: 2940 The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion: 9133

The Paper Mario series ended up having a really good contest, and TYD's exit in the final match of round 2 made those who picked WW \> Oblivion breathe a sigh of relief. TYD exposed Oblivion here as a 4-way wonder, and simultaneously made all that Oblivion \> Wind Waker chatter pre-contest seem ridiculous. Western gaming is on the rise no doubt, but it has some time before it starts taking down titans like Zelda and Mario 1 on 1 in contests.

This match also thankfully ended a fairly boring round 2. Only 4 matches -- God of War \> Tales of Symphonia, Golden Sun \> San Andreas, Persona 4 \> Dead Rising and Shadow of the Colossus \> Metal Gear Solid 2 -- were really good. That's 4 matches in 32. Yikes. A few others were decent for various reasons, like Paper Mario \> WoW or MGS4 \> Diablo 2, but as actual matches they were over in 10 seconds.

Thankfully, round 3 and on would rank among the best we've ever had.

## Match Trends

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## (1)Fallout 3 vs (5)Batman: Arkham Asylum 2010

_source: (1)Fallout 3 vs (5)Batman: Arkham Asylum 2010 (revid 69242)_

## Results

**Round Three**

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** North Division Semifinal
- **Match \#:** 97
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, December 7, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 6,317
- **Oracle Expectations:** Fallout 3 - 60.87% 85 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Fallout 3 - 58.75%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 194 Fallout 3: 10041 Batman: Arkham Asylum: 2186

Early in a contest, a 59-41 match is typically boring tripe existing solely to get predetermined losers out of a bracket. But from round 3 and onward, pretty much all the fluke are gone and you're dealing with games that have won multiple matches on merit. There are exceptions like Persona 4, but normally you have legit games at this point.

And even still, Batman's 41% feels more impressive than most. Just take a peek at how high the game is in the final LOL x-stats. I know Fallout 3's match on Brawl overrates the first two divisions by a lot, but Batman being high-ish at all is very good for it. On top of that, consider how it knocked Fallout down below 59% during its best time, the day. This was never a debated match in terms of who would win, but it was still a decent match in terms of seeing how legit Batman's game is.

Sounds to me like it's time to remove that "must have originated in a video game" restriction and get the GOD DAMN BATMAN into a contest!

As a random addendum, round 3 was the last round with strict match pictures. Freeform would come in from round 4 and onward.

## Match Trends

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## (3)Uncharted 2: Among Thieves vs (2)Halo: Combat Evolved 2010

_source: (3)Uncharted 2: Among Thieves vs (2)Halo: Combat Evolved 2010 (revid 69243)_

## Results

**Round Three**

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** North Division Semifinal
- **Match \#:** 98
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, December 7, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 3,976
- **Oracle Expectations:** Halo: Combat Evolved - 53.37% 75 for - 12 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Halo: Combat Evolved - 31.00%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 390 Uncharted 2: Among Thieves: 3860 Halo: Combat Evolved: 7343

Why hello there King of the ASV, haven't seen you in awhile. How have you been?

This match was like reuniting with a long-lost friend, and I feel like it was only possible due to 1 on 1 matches being back. Say whatever you will about Halo, but its ASV is really something else.

Just to give you an idea of how ridiculous this truly was, this was the score of the match 1 hour in:

Uncharted 2: Among Thieves - 3115 \[50.04%\]

Halo: Combat Evolved - 3110 \[49.96%\]

Total Votes - 6225

That turned into a near 54-46 match over the next 11 hours, thanks to Halo staying at or just below 60% intake for a good deal of updates. Even with this Uncharted 2 had a pretty good contest, but you can't help feeling sorry when someone or something is on the receiving end of one of Halo's steroid ASVs. A lot of people breathed a sigh of relief the Fallout 3/Halo match was a night match, because no one wants any part of that ASV.

## Match Trends

## External Links

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## (1)Metroid Prime vs (4)Okami 2010

_source: (1)Metroid Prime vs (4)Okami 2010 (revid 69244)_

## Results

**Round Three**

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northeast Division Semifinal
- **Match \#:** 99
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, December 8, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 6,004
- **Oracle Expectations:** Metroid Prime - 58.46% 87 for - 1 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Metroid Prime - 58.26%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 235 Metroid Prime: 10100 Okami: 1593

I'd love to bust out the old "picture was better than the match" joke, but is Samus even in that picture? GANON's one of my favorites, but he completely dropped the ball on this one.

This was obviously a really predictable match, because no game from the top half of this division was going to upset Prime. But with what we know now about how strong Prime really was this contest, Okami (and Mega Man 9, by extrapolation) were pretty damn legit this contest. When this match happened a lot of people were surprised by how well Okami did in getting near 42% on Prime and bleeding its percentage all day, but the game has gone nowhere but up between every single contest. Granted during the match people were still curious about whether this meant Prime was screwed next round, but what's a PCA without some revisionist history? :)

Remember back in 2007 when people worried about whether or not Amaterasu could beat Matt the Mii and Little Mac in her very first match, then were stunned once she beat Balthier and Ada Wong? That whole thing looks pretty dumb in retrospect, and one could possibly say Okami got a contest title boost. Has anyone ever said a single bad thing about that game?

## Match Trends

## External Links

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## (6)God of War vs (2)Half-Life 2 2010

_source: (6)God of War vs (2)Half-Life 2 2010 (revid 69245)_

## Results

**Round Three**

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northeast Division Semifinal
- **Match \#:** 100
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, December 8, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 4,408
- **Oracle Expectations:** Half-Life 2 - 55.31% 85 for - 3 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Half-Life 2 - 42.92%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 259 God of War: 3550 Half-Life 2: 7876

Before the contest, a lot of people felt like God of War or Tales of Symphonia could pull the upset in this match. Then God of War went out and wrecked ToS with the morning vote last round, and people feared it could wreck Half-Life 2 in a day match.

Half-Life 2 went out and shut all that chatter up in about 10 seconds. God of War actually did have a good day vote this match, but it did little more than bleed a whole 1% or so from the beginning. This was arguably HL2's best performance of the entire contest, and it made the pending Prime vs Half-Life duel a true tossup going in. You can't ask for much else.

It's difficult to say God of War had a bad contest, because it took care of business when it needed to in its wins. It's more fair to say it just had a bad match here, even in scoring almost 47%. People expected more, and the game probably should have given us more. You have to wonder what God of War 3 might have done in 1's place, since that game is presumably the strongest one in the series.

## Match Trends

## External Links

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## (1)Super Smash Bros. Melee vs (4)Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare 2010

_source: (1)Super Smash Bros. Melee vs (4)Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare 2010 (revid 69246)_

## Results

**Round Three**

Thursday, December 9, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** East Division Semifinal
- **Match \#:** 101
- **Match Date:** Thursday, December 9, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 15,909
- **Oracle Expectations:** Super Smash Bros. Melee - 66.40% 88 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Smash Bros. Melee - 43.75%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 238 Super Smash Bros. Melee: 7913 Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare: 3661

Other than maybe Majora vs GSC, this was the best picture of the entire third round. Link sidestepping Fox's laser so it shoots the CoD4 slug right in the face is something else, and it's good symbolism for what the Call of Duty series deserves.

Though with that said, this was another bad overnight percentage bleed for Melee. To start over 75% and fall all the way down to 69 is bad, and it was another one of those little forshadowings of what Brawl was getting ready to do to it next round. I know Call of Duty is the casual du joir for people that can't play real games, but it's difficult to imagine the other contest favorites bleeding this badly. You think Brawl, FFX or one of the two big Zelda games bleeds 6% in any time frame to a game and series this entire site hates? Add to that Melee's bracket numbers, which are really bad for a 1 seed in the third round, and you get a game setting itself up to disappoint people.

Being totally honest here, this was where I started getting worried for Melee. Then the Kingdom Hearts match happened, and I went on record saying Brawl would get 51% in that match. I really really wish that would have been wrong, but the signs were there.

## Match Trends

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## (3)Pokémon Diamond/Pearl/Platinum vs (2)Super Smash Bros. Brawl 2010

_source: (3)Pokémon Diamond/Pearl/Platinum vs (2)Super Smash Bros. Brawl 2010 (revid 85351)_

## Results

**Round Three**

Thursday, December 9, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** East Division Semifinal
- **Match \#:** 102
- **Match Date:** Thursday, December 9, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 24,236
- **Oracle Expectations:** Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 66.33% 88 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 63.15%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 307 Pokémon Diamond/Pearl/Platinum: 2947 Super Smash Bros. Brawl: 7892

See, now this is how a champion contender is supposed to act. You take a game weaker than you and just mercilessly destroy it from start to finish. Even more impressive about how badly Brawl blew out Pokémon here was this being a day match, which is Pokémon's best time. Writing was on the wall for the Brawl \> Melee thing all contest, but this all but sealed the deal. At best, you could say the two games looked even in round 2. But round 3 clearly made Brawl look better.

Other than more Brawl/Melee comparisons, not much to say about this match other than what someone picked for it in their guru entry: <http://thengamer.com/guru/GOTD/bracket.php?id=3>

\>\_\>

## Match Trends

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## (1)Super Mario Galaxy vs (4)The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess 2010

_source: (1)Super Mario Galaxy vs (4)The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess 2010 (revid 69248)_

## Results

**Round Three**

Friday, December 10, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southeast Division Semifinal
- **Match \#:** 103
- **Match Date:** Friday, December 10, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 9,130
- **Oracle Expectations:** The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess - 62.22% 86 for - 2 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess - 30.47%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 307 Super Mario Galaxy: 5558 The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess: 5356

If only Mario was facing the right way, this would have been the round's best picture \>\_\>

On the surface this match looks like Mario Galaxy disappointing as usual, but you have to realize no one outside the casuals expected that game to do well in this match. For it to flirt with 40% for a time against Zelda in a match where a repeat of the Ocarina \> Mario 64 killing from 2004 was possible was a moral victory for Galaxy. It definitely came out this contest with a mix of 1 seed respect (just look at those battle stats and bracket predictions for proof) and contest title boost, and it showed during its loss.

But then you have to play devil's advocate here for a sec. It was the only 1 seed not to get out of the third round, and this was a contest where both Galaxy and Majora were supposed to crap out in round 3. So we all get to HAW HAW GALAXY at least in that respect.

## Match Trends

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## (6)Kingdom Hearts II vs (2)Kingdom Hearts 2010

_source: (6)Kingdom Hearts II vs (2)Kingdom Hearts 2010 (revid 69249)_

## Results

**Round Three**

Friday, December 10, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southeast Division Semifinal
- **Match \#:** 104
- **Match Date:** Friday, December 10, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 2,564
- **Oracle Expectations:** Kingdom Hearts II - 46.93% 19 for - 69 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Kingdom Hearts II - 11.70%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 396 Kingdom Hearts II: 4207 Kingdom Hearts: 6090

The most even and fair match picture of the entire contest! (shut up, yoblazer)

This is the one match all contest I'm unable to wrap my head around. I mean know why this happened -- KH2 is what made Sora popular, "darker and more mature theme" that all the 13 year-old gothic wannabes want to imitate, Organization 13, more FF7 fanservice, the beginning of all Nomura's make-it-up-as-I-go storylines that people eat up because they don't know what a good story actually is and etc -- but I really thought nostalgia would come through here for the original. I'm probably in the minority here, but 1 was the much better game. The Disney elements were seamless instead of feeling shoehorned, the gameplay was much more interesting instead of 2's easymode skills and reaction abilities, the Gummi Ship stuff was better, and the Coliseum. I can't get over how badly 2 ruined that place.

But above all, Kingdom Hearts was Square's last great game. Every single new game since, for one reason or another, has not lived up to that A+ status from the 1990s. And I say this as someone who really likes FF13, but I won't be naïve and say the game matches up to the golden age. You'd think people would vote accordingly.

Then the match happened, and you could tell right away Kingdom Hearts was in for a world of hurt. It had brackets and battle picks and gurus behind it, and even then it couldn't do anything early on. Then for a little while KH2 hovered with this small lead with 1 making these dinky little comeback attempts. And every single time, 2 would go berserk for one update and start the whole process over again.

It stayed like this for awhile, then the ASV kicked in. Just for kicks, this was the score at 2:30 PM EST:

Kingdom Hearts 2 - 7028 \[49.98%\]

Kingdom Hearts - 7033 \[50.02%\]

Total Votes - 14061

The KH2 ASV wasn't as laughably dominant as Halo's, but it came close. To turn a 5 point match into getting well over 52-48 is crazy, and it proved who the stronger game among these two was with no doubts. This was no fluke match, as two Kingdom Hearts duel happened during the day, the series' best time. This match also went and shot down all those nostalgia arguments for Melee \> Brawl, since Kingdom Hearts 2 won this match for all the same reasons Brawl would win the Smash duel. In retrospect it's good this match happened first, so that all us Melee fans were prepared accordingly in advance for what would be the worst match to ever happen.

## Match Trends

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## (1)Final Fantasy X vs (5)Golden Sun 2010

_source: (1)Final Fantasy X vs (5)Golden Sun 2010 (revid 69250)_

## Results

**Round Three**

Saturday, December 11, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** South Division Semifinal
- **Match \#:** 105
- **Match Date:** Saturday, December 11, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 13,109
- **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy X - 64.61% 88 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Final Fantasy X - 56.78%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 125 Final Fantasy X: 9774 Golden Sun: 1214

So glad that FFX picture was used at least once this contest, though I believe it ended up getting used once or twice more after this.

You can make a real case this was FFX's worst match of the contest, since even in the Majora loss it gave a respectable showing. But here, FFX just embarrassed itself and only it being a night match helped it save some face.

You really only need to look at the first 10 minutes. Golden Sun was over 40% early on, in a match that should have been JRPG SFF Central, but fell to below 40% right at the freeze. Then in the next update, it flies back up near 42% instead of dropping like a rock. Does anything after that hilarity really matter? Say whatever you want about the stats topic, but there was no better place to be during the first 10 minutes of this match.

To be completely fair here FFX recovered nicely overnight, but that's also its best time frame. This might have stayed a bad match for it during the day. It's funny how even though FFX had all night matches until the semifinal, it still went out and embarrassed itself more often then not. This game was not the same entity from the 2004 contest.

## Match Trends

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## (3)Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic vs (2)Final Fantasy IX 2010

_source: (3)Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic vs (2)Final Fantasy IX 2010 (revid 69251)_

## Results

**Round Three**

Saturday, December 11, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** South Division Semifinal
- **Match \#:** 106
- **Match Date:** Saturday, December 11, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 3,382
- **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy IX - 56.02% 82 for - 6 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Final Fantasy IX - 30.68%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 303 Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic: 4935 Final Fantasy IX: 5171

Brackets were split between these two games outside of the guru, and for good reason. KOTOR is a very respected Xbox day-type game that might have benefited from the contest title boost, while FF9 pretty much always struggles during the day. Pre-contest, there was nothing wrong with taking this upset.

It didn't work out in KOTOR's favor, but that doesn't mean it had a bad match. FF9 was over 55% early, and in standard FF9 fashion it got its percentage rocked during the afternoon hours. KOTOR won its fair share of updates throughout the match, ending with a very respectable 47% on a Final Fantasy title. This was one of those rare matches where both sides seemed content with what happened. FF9 fans were happy to see it win three matches and finally get a legit read on it since it's almost always gets stuck in SFF, and KOTOR scored 47% in its loss. Can't ask for much more than that in a match you were probably going to lose anyway.

And hats off to yoblazer for his first-ever accepted contest match pic! He did KOTOR's side, but more importantly he got the knife fight into RE4's picture this round.

## Match Trends

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## (1)Resident Evil 4 vs (4)Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4 2010

_source: (1)Resident Evil 4 vs (4)Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4 2010 (revid 69252)_

## Results

**Round Three**

Sunday, December 12, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southwest Division Semifinal
- **Match \#:** 107
- **Match Date:** Sunday, December 12, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 16,056
- **Oracle Expectations:** Resident Evil 4 - 69.03% 88 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Resident Evil 4 - 60.97%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 176 Resident Evil 4: 9219 Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4: 1117

We almost got through the contest without Persona 4's YELLOW YELLOW YELLOW YELLOW YELLOW, but it was not to be.

Of all the games to make it to round 3, Persona 4 was clearly the one that didn't belong. It shows you how bad that whole TWEWY/DR/P4/Braid fourpack was, and P4 did nothing in this match to prove itself. 70-30 in round 3 is bad no matter how you slice it, but it was nice to see just to get the Persona Defense Force to finally shut the F up about that dumb series. Those people are lucky Deus Ex happened, or they would have been the worst fanbase of the contest. They could be good games for all I know, but there's no need to remind people every 15 seconds.

As for RE4, the game that actually deserved to make it this far, it made a nice recovery from that embarrassing percentage bleed against Vice City. This match paired with FFX's terrible showing on Golden Sun meant the RE4 \> FFX upset train had a conductor once again.

## Match Trends

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## (3)Portal vs (2)Mass Effect 2010

_source: (3)Portal vs (2)Mass Effect 2010 (revid 88701)_

## Results

**Round Three**

Sunday, December 12, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southwest Division Semifinal
- **Match \#:** 108
- **Match Date:** Sunday, December 12, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 4,439
- **Oracle Expectations:** Portal - 58.97% 88 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Portal - 30.36%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 268 Portal: 5327 Mass Effect: 4303

It's rare a game looks so amazing in an easy loss, but Mass Effect gave us arguably the best loss of the entire contest here. Before this contest, I'm willing to bet less than 25% of gurus, if that, would have picked Mass Effect to beat Final Fantasy 12 in a direct match. For whatever reason, there's this incorrect and pervasive opinion that a big-name release in a series can't boost the entire series. Over and over, people brought up how badly Mass Effect did in 2009 when discussing this contest. And naturally, most of the people discussing this haven't actually played the games and look to old sets of percentages to decide everything in these matches. If orange juice ever beat milk in a popularity poll, I bet some of these people would start putting orange juice in their cereal.

So when Mass Effect scored nearly 46% on Portal, it turned a lot of heads. Can't blame Portal, either, because it went nuts between 2009 and 2010 thanks to Valve giving the game away for free, and overall had a great contest. Even the oracle, which time and time again prove themselves to be the smartest collective mind of the contest, totally crapped out on this. I believe only 9 people had Portal getting under 55% here, which shows the power of x-stats in how people predict contests these days.

The only thing to learn from Portal here is that it wasn't going to upset RE4. For Mass Effect, the game clearly boosted like hell from the release of Mass Effect 2 and anyone denying this is joking, wrong, or knows nothing about how the Mass Effect series works. I'm hoping 3 is released before our next character battle, because the chance of seeing Commander Shepard as a 1 would be hilarious.

Yes, the same Commander Shepard who was a part of this gem.

(I really need to go and order all those 2007/2008 matches in poll order, because 1st/2nd/3rd/4th place order is supremely dumb. Not as dumb as A BIG RELEASE IN A SERIES DOESN'T BOOST THE OTHER GAMES, but still dumb.)

## Match Trends

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## (1)Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater vs (5)Paper Mario 2010

_source: (1)Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater vs (5)Paper Mario 2010 (revid 69254)_

## Results

**Round Three**

Monday, December 13, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** West Division Semifinal
- **Match \#:** 109
- **Match Date:** Monday, December 13, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 5,937
- **Oracle Expectations:** Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater - 56.89% 86 for - 2 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater - 26.79%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 204 Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater: 7743 Paper Mario: 2235

Were this a first round match it would have sucked, but in round 3 it's more than acceptable because we can look at Paper Mario getting more than 42% on a 1 seed and go "this was legit". And it was. Paper Mario's small little series had a good contest, and even though it ended here you can't take away from it how hilarious that "upset" over World of Warcraft was. Few things are more entertaining to me than pretentious fanbases whining their asses off when people disagree with them, especially the WoW fanbase. I know most of you guys don't have LL access, but you missed one hell of a classic topic during that match.

Now I know MGS3 had WoW to deal with in the top half, but only 27% had MGS3 winning three matches, really? That number stuns me, especially given we have a direct match between MGS3 and WoW: <http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Metal_Gear_Solid_3_vs_Oblivion_vs_World_of_Warcraft_vs_Tales_of_Symphonia_2009>

You can't do any Majora \> GSC voodoo there, either. Picking WoW to beat MGS3 was one of the worst moves by the casuals all contest, no matter how bad the MGS series ended up looking this year.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4177&num=2)
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## (3)Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots vs (2)Shadow of the Colossus 2010

_source: (3)Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots vs (2)Shadow of the Colossus 2010 (revid 69255)_

## Results

**Round Three**

Monday, December 13, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** West Division Semifinal
- **Match \#:** 110
- **Match Date:** Monday, December 13, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 466
- **Oracle Expectations:** Shadow of the Colossus - 45.37% 1 for - 87 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Shadow of the Colossus - 15.19%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 249 Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots: 6077 Shadow of the Colossus: 3320

A couple matches ago, we had Mass Effect score 46% on Portal and show just how good you can look in a loss.

Fast forward one whole day. Did you ever think you'd see a game score 49.57% in any poll and look so thoroughly terrible? In 2009, Metal Gear Solid 4 beat Brawl twice and came within one FFX night vote push of making the final, where it would have undoubtedly gotten third place ahead of Link to the Past.

And then this match happened and all of that -- all of it -- just completely went to hell. Contrary to popular belief, "SotC" does not stand for "Shadow of the Colossus". It stands for "Star of this Contest". Or "Star of the Contest", if you prefer something simple. The MGS2 upset, awesome as it was, could be described as a fluke in some circles. Going out and beating 4, however, was raw power with a sprinkle of bandwagon. And you can bet your house MGS3 would have suffered the same fate had it gotten Star of the Contest in a day match.

The only contest entrant to ever look this bad in a loss was Magus at the hands of Knuckles in 2005, but I'll make the argument MGS4 looked worse here. For one, Knuckles \> Magus ended up a near-meaningless 1 point match (had Mega Man beaten Crono in the semifinal, Magus would have ended up the Ultimate Loser™) and Magus proved later to be a complete joke. The jury is still out on the Metal Gear Solid series, but this match meant much more than Knuckles \> Magus did. It was later in the contest, and people care far more about games than they do characters. Run Magus vs Knuckles again and it could threaten 60/40 in Knuckles' favor. Run Metal Gear Solid 4 vs Star of the Contest again and MGS4 could very well win. Who really knows?

Don't let the final margin of 466 fool you, by the way, even with MGS4 cutting an 850 vote lead down that much in the final 4 hours. It was never in this match beyond the freeze, and that rally meant about as much as Magus's rally did against Knuckles. When you think Magus/Knuckles, do you honestly remember Magus cutting 1000 votes off the lead near the end? This 400 vote final push by MGS4 will be forgotten by history as equally meaningless.

I once said there would never again be a match where the Guru, BOP and Oracle all got it unanimously wrong. porchy77 being a lamer aside, this match broke that streak. It might have also happened in the LOL 4-ways, but who gives a flying F about 4-ways? I'd sooner forget about the one correct Oracle pick and remember this match as the first in 5 years to make all three intelligent side projects look dumb, because this match deserves to be remembered for a long, long time. Damn MGS3 getting Star of the Contest in a day match, too.

Before this contest, we were supposed to finally get a good read on the MGS hierarchy. Instead, thanks to Star of the Contest, none of them ever had matches with one another. SotC's run was so good that even \*I\* jumped on the bandwagon.

<http://www.gamefaqs.com/ps2/924364-shadow-of-the-colossus/reviews/review-142658>

Me, of all people. ExThaNemesis would break his femurs trying to keep up with me, the grand master of bandwagon-hopping!

## Match Trends

## External Links

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## (1)The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask vs (4)Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal 2010

_source: (1)The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask vs (4)Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal 2010 (revid 69256)_

## Results

**Round Three**

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northwest Division Semifinal
- **Match \#:** 111
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, December 14, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 4,976
- **Oracle Expectations:** The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - 49.34% 26 for - 54 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - 54.57%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 191 The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask: 6762 Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal: 2753

For all the hype that went into this match and the GSC run in general, it all came crashing to a surprising stop in 5 short minutes. GSC was supposed to be the game to make a good contest run and perhaps threaten Final Fantasy X in the semifinal. A game to threaten FFX in the semifinal would definitely come from this match, just not the one we were all expecting.

Pokémon overall had a subpar contest, especially with how well it did in the 2010 character battle. Then with HGSS and B/W hype, it was expected to do some damage this year with GSC as the flagship. But after taking the very early lead on Majora's Mask in this match, it got rocked. Majora had a 100 vote lead by the freeze and just never looked back an route to a 56-44 beatdown of Kratos-like epic proportions.

Majora's Mask being the favorite here might have been common sense for some people, and maybe it was, but this wasn't some x-stat voodoo from GSC people. There were two direct matches from 2009 pointing to GSC being the favorite, and Zelda just wrecked all that.

Most of us already have the common sense needed to know how useless 4-way contests are, but this match going the way it did should be the final death knell to any stragglers.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4179&num=2)
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## (3)The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker vs (2)The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion 2010

_source: (3)The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker vs (2)The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion 2010 (revid 69257)_

## Results

**Round Three**

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** NorthwestDivision Semifinal
- **Match \#:** 112
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, December 14, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 7,205
- **Oracle Expectations:** The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - 56.42% 81 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - 26.27%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 190 The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker: 5353 The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion: 3757

Wind Waker is a terrible game graphically, but you wouldn't know it by that picture. greatone10 always delivers.

Oblivion was expected to make some noise this contest and possibly even challenge Wind Waker in this match, but its struggle against TYD the round before signaled how this match would go before it ever happened. It made a decent enough percentage climb during the day, but nothing earth-shattering. As good as round 3 was, this match wasn't all that special compared to the other stuff we got. Dare I say, the match picture might have been better than the actual match. I won't go as far as to call Oblivion a disappointment here, but it definitely could have done better and isn't the western game of choice when citing the western games that really impressed this year.

All in all, really good round 3. Very few stinkers, and about half the matches were very good for one reason or another. Much better than round 2.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4180&num=2)
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## (1)Fallout 3 vs (2)Halo: Combat Evolved 2010

_source: (1)Fallout 3 vs (2)Halo: Combat Evolved 2010 (revid 69258)_

## Results

**Round Four**

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** North Division Final
- **Match \#:** 113
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, December 15, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 7,326
- **Oracle Expectations:** Fallout 3 - 56.08% 81 for - 3 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Fallout 3 - 30.53%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 209 Fallout 3: 5595 Halo: Combat Evolved: 3290

You'll sometimes see a match picture not appear or small poll glitch, but we've never had the poll completely disappear before. But for the first hour after midnight, there was no poll. Not a delay, like how Link got to beat the crap out of Jill Valentine for an extra 2 hours back in 2002, but no poll at all. Had this match been close, people would have flipped.

Thankfully, the match wasn't at all close. After last round when Halo went on steroids with the ASV against Uncharted 2, people worried that Fallout could have lost this in a day match. Then the poll finally started, and Fallout showed its true strength for the first time all contest. Wins over inFamous, Deus Ex and Batman were nice, but those are all untested games. Halo has been in many contests before, and Fallout 3 went out and 60-40'd it. That's about as legit as it gets, and yet this wouldn't even be Fallout's best match all contest. All talk of the Prime/HL2 winner upsetting Fallout 3 died with this 60-40.

Round 4 was also the appearance of freeform pictures, where people were allowed to be as creative as possible with their images. The first two matches of this round only had 2 images each, but it would increase later. And just to give you an idea how many pictures I made this contest, I had a picture accepted for all 16 remaining games at one point or another. Zen called me the new Zen, and he's kind of right \<\_\<

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4181&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=113)

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## (1)Metroid Prime vs (2)Half-Life 2 2010

_source: (1)Metroid Prime vs (2)Half-Life 2 2010 (revid 69259)_

## Results

**Round Four**

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northeast Division Final
- **Match \#:** 114
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, December 15, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 828
- **Oracle Expectations:** Metroid Prime - 50.70% 55 for - 30 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Metroid Prime - 20.90%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 163 Metroid Prime: 4136 Half-Life 2: 4564

This match was amazing for two reasons. Before getting into the actual match, let me get into this picture nonsense since people were waiting on it.

When the match first started, a bunch of people made topics complaining about the Hypnogordon picture (http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/gotd/gotd-114-1.jpg). They erroneously thought I had made it, so there was the typical rabble about how I suck and etc. KP went into all the topics and corrected people, since he's the one who actually made that picture. Immediately, all the same people changed their tune to saying the Hypnogordon picture was awesome and my FPS image was crap, complete with the typical rabble about how much I suck. KP and I had a wonderful laugh on AIM about this, and he can absolutely vouch for what happened. It was all the same people changing their minds about which picture they didn't like, completely forgetting about keeping their story consistent. The pictures didn't even matter; people just love complaining about me for whatever reason. If there's any other interpretation for this other than people being obsessed with everything I do beyond any reasonable psychological standard, I'd love to hear it. I used to say this stuff in jest because I like poking fun and going back and forth with people, and it makes the board fun. I don't honestly believe people sit around F5ing Board 8 to see what I do next, because not even I'm that full of myself. But then this whole picture crap happened, and now I'm honestly not sure. I know one thing for sure, though: There is no longer a defense when I accuse people on this board of caring about me way too much. Blame the people who chomped at the bit during this match to complain about me for 12 straight hours, because they ruined the fun for everyone else. There is no excuse for how blatantly dumb that was. You could have at least tried being subtle with the bias, folks =p

Then there was the actual match. Months of hype went into this, but the actual match was a bit of a letdown. Yes Metroid Prime only scored 56% on Half-Life (the original) in 2004, but no one brought up how big a gap 6% is. Even with the Valve boost, there's a lot of room for Half-Life 2 to squeeze in there between 44% and 50%, and this is exactly what happened. It wasn't a bad call to pick Half-Life 2 to win this match, especially given how badly Prime routinely looked in the past. This is arguably the first poll Metroid Prime ever looked really legit in, and Samus wasn't about to let the opportunity go to waste. Prime more or less had this match won by the time everyone finished lunch.

The match was never in question, but a great trend happened once the evening hit. The lead peaked near 1200, and Half-Life was able to knock it down near 800 by the time the match ended. This highly suggests Half-Life could have won a night match, even with Prime's godlike power hour. This match above all others is why I feel the 24 hour matches need to start a round or two earlier. Even if you pull the 24 hour start time back to the divisional finals -- and really if you win three matches, you should be given every opportunity to win or lose -- it only extends the contest by two weeks. Otherwise, you get troublemakers like me bringing up how certain matches shouldn't be decided by time of day. I don't care about Ike vs Zidane in round 2 last year being decided on time of day, because it's only round 2. Who cares? But a match this late in the contest should not be relegated to that same variable.

Make it happen, Allen.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4182&num=2)
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## (1)Super Smash Bros. Melee vs (2)Super Smash Bros. Brawl 2010

_source: (1)Super Smash Bros. Melee vs (2)Super Smash Bros. Brawl 2010 (revid 69260)_

## Results

**Round Four**

Thursday, December 16, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** East Division Final
- **Match \#:** 115
- **Match Date:** Thursday, December 16, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 955
- **Oracle Expectations:** Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 49.48% 40 for - 44 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 23.72%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 212 Super Smash Bros. Melee: 4780 Super Smash Bros. Brawl: 3636

Sandbag ZERO is without a doubt the best match picture we've ever had. Hats off to yoblazer for it, even if it wasn't a particularly hard picture to make. It really captures what this match meant before it started.

There's no need to get into how much hype went into this. It wasn't just how we all assumed the winner would win the contest, but the rivalry between these two games that's gone on since Brawl's release date. The match placement really speaks for itself.

And for three hours or so, the match really lived up to its billing. Melee took a pretty sizable early lead thanks to brackets and Board 8 not liking Brawl very much, then slowed down a little over the next few hours. It increased like this until Europe's voting block really kicked in, and then Melee completely fell apart. Brawl was able to come back and take over the lead with little resistance because of what time this all went on, and then it just dominated the morning vote to win the match with over 51%. For how hyped this match was, to only deliver for 3 hours was kind of a letdown. And of course, it was also a letdown because the game we all wanted to see win lost.

I won't lie and pretend I'm happy with this result or anything, but Brawl winning this match changed the course of this entire contest. Brawl winning convinced a whole lot of smart people to rally for Majora's Mask over FFX in the semifinal, because everyone knew Majora had a better chance of beating Brawl in the final than FFX. And then in the final itself, we saw our biggest Good vs Evil paradigm since 2002, when everyone wanted to see Mario lose the final because of all his shenanigans leading up to it. People did not want to see a hated game on a hated system win Game of the Decade on our web site. I and others firmly believe Melee winning this match would have given FFX a much better shot at Majora's Mask, and who knows what happens in a final between Melee and FFX.

One other note from this match before I move on to other stuff: Melee won the USA, Canada and even the UK. It only lost the match because the overall votes of Europe and the far east vastly favored Brawl, and was more than enough to make up the difference. This means in the regions where people played both games competitively, the fanbase preferred Melee. So of course you'll get troublemaker Melee fans like myself saying Melee could have won this during a day match or a 24 hour match, with the actual match that happened not meaning a whole lot. This is a win by technicality and little else, and don't give me crap about how Brawl winning the morning vote so easily means it easily wins during a 12 hour day match or a full 24 hour match. MGS3 easily took the morning vote from Star of the Contest in similar fashion, but very few people believe MGS3 survives any other type of match given what SotC had done earlier. It's the same deal here. Melee could have easily won a more heavily rallied match when people weren't checked out to go and sleep. It's our second example in a row of why the 24 hour matches need to start a round or two earlier, so we don't get situations like this where a game or character wins a match they might have lost in another time.

It should be noted that while the match was a letdown, the Board 8 experience surrounding it was one of the best we've ever had. There was a ton of great stuff going on, but nothing better than The Show going live for a few hours during all this. It was a great time, and it's when we learned how cool a dude BT really was, how foolmo is as funny in real life as he is on the board, how much all this meant to us, and so much more. "You had to be there", as they say. In our new age of too much information making contests a little more predictable with each passing year, it was a nice throwback to the old days.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4183&num=2)
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## (4)The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess vs (6)Kingdom Hearts II 2010

_source: (4)The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess vs (6)Kingdom Hearts II 2010 (revid 69261)_

## Results

**Round Four**

Thursday, December 16, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southeast Division Final
- **Match \#:** 116
- **Match Date:** Thursday, December 16, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 8,937
- **Oracle Expectations:** The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess - 54.66% 81 for - 1 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess - 17.67%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 123 The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess: 6088 Kingdom Hearts II: 2282

Of all the divisional finals matches, this was the one featuring the oddball seeding. Everything else was 1 vs 2 or 1 vs 3. This poll was also really popular for some reason, because the 63000 votes was very high compared to a lot of other day matches.

We all know the stats from LOL 4-ways are illegitimate and had more than enough proof of this before this match took place, but it's still funny how badly Zelda can dominate 1 on 1. In 2009's second round, Kingdom Hearts 2 was less than 1000 votes away from RE4 for second place and was only 2600 votes away from Twilight Princess for first.

Then you enter these two into a 1 on 1, and Kingdom Hearts 2 gets its face rocked off. To be fair this wasn't all that far away from how last year's stats define it, but Zelda 1 on 1 is really something else and it's almost admirable KH2 was even able to break 40% on it.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4184&num=2)
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## (1)Final Fantasy X vs (2)Final Fantasy IX 2010

_source: (1)Final Fantasy X vs (2)Final Fantasy IX 2010 (revid 69262)_

## Results

**Round Four**

Friday, December 17, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** South Division Final
- **Match \#:** 117
- **Match Date:** Friday, December 17, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 11,155
- **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy X - 62.85% 84 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Final Fantasy X - 43.10%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 175 Final Fantasy X: 6721 Final Fantasy IX: 1288

Allen's idea to set up rivalries worked out in a couple cases -- Smash, Kingdom Hearts, Division MGS -- but a couple of those rivalry ideas were just painful. Halo 3 was never going to beat 1, and Final Fantasy 9 was never going to beat Final Fantasy X. 43% of people picked FFX to make it out of its division, the highest prediction percentage by far of any round 4 match.

The fact we all had to be happy because FFX "only" scored 63% here, as opposed to other Square SFF matches in the past that have gotten ugly in a hurry. The only real comparison to make here was how well FF9 did compared to Golden Sun, but it's not like that means much of anything. This whole division felt like it was set up to get FFX as far into the tournament as possible.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4185&num=2)
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## (1)Resident Evil 4 vs (3)Portal 2010

_source: (1)Resident Evil 4 vs (3)Portal 2010 (revid 69263)_

## Results

**Round Four**

Friday, December 17, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Southwest Division Final
- **Match \#:** 118
- **Match Date:** Friday, December 17, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 6,087
- **Oracle Expectations:** Resident Evil 4 - 57.31% 83 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Resident Evil 4 - 32.62%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 136 Resident Evil 4: 4794 Portal: 2989

This was the first match of Portal's all contest where it didn't act like it had joke trends. It won the very very early vote, fell down to the 55-45 range and the match just stayed there all day. The possibility of Portal upsetting RE4 here died when Mass Effect did so well on it, but Portal still had one hell of a contest here. There is no shame in losing 55-45 to RE4, especially when the stats from LOL 4-ways have this match as 63-37. 4-ways aren't legitimate in any way, but a statistical jump that large is no accident, especially against a game like RE4 that got the contest title boost.

What we learned from this match and Portal's run in general: If you want to make gamers happy, give your game away for free.

To celebrate, I give you Still Alive lyrics:

This was a triumph.

I'm making a note here: HUGE SUCCESS.

It's hard to overstate my satisfaction.

Aperture Science

We do what we must

because we can.

For the good of all of us.

Except the ones who are dead.

But there's no sense crying over every mistake.

You just keep on trying till you run out of cake.

And the Science gets done.

And you make a neat gun.

For the people who are still alive.

I'm not even angry.

I'm being so sincere right now.

Even though you broke my heart.

And killed me.

And tore me to pieces.

And threw every piece into a fire.

As they burned it hurt because I was so happy for you!

Now these points of data make a beautiful line.

And we're out of beta.

We're releasing on time.

So I'm GLaD. I got burned.

Think of all the things we learned

for the people who are still alive.

Go ahead and leave me.

I think I prefer to stay inside.

Maybe you'll find someone else to help you.

Maybe Black Mesa

THAT WAS A JOKE.

HAHA. FAT CHANCE.

Anyway, this cake is great.

It's so delicious and moist.

Look at me still talking

when there's Science to do.

When I look out there, it makes me GLaD I'm not you.

I've experiments to run.

There is research to be done.

On the people who are still alive.

And believe me I am still alive.

I'm doing Science and I'm still alive.

I feel FANTASTIC and I'm still alive.

While you're dying I'll be still alive.

And when you're dead I will be still alive.

STILL ALIVE

STILL ALIVE

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4186&num=2)
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## (1)Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater vs (2)Shadow of the Colossus 2010

_source: (1)Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater vs (2)Shadow of the Colossus 2010 (revid 69264)_

## Results

**Round Four**

Saturday, December 18, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** West Division Final
- **Match \#:** 119
- **Match Date:** Saturday, December 18, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 479
- **Oracle Expectations:** Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater - 50.52% 47 for - 35 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater - 13.13%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 183 Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater: 4636 Shadow of the Colossus: 2606

Other than Sandbag ZERO, that's the picture of the contest. It's perfect. It's good symbolism to show how Big Boss succeeded where Solid Snake failed, proving once again how Big Boss \> Solid Snake.

This was perhaps our third match this round decided by when the match took place, because it's hard to imagine Shadow of the Colossus not finishing off the Metal Gear Solid trifecta were this a day match. Metal Gear Solid is an entirely different beast at night, and it showed. The final margin may have only been 479, but the match wasn't really that close.

Shadow of the Colossus made a decent early push, but MGS3 quickly recovered. Things stayed even for only a little while once MGS3 made the match even, and from there MGS3 made a good night vote push to take the match. SotC tried keeping up with various stalls here and there, but the overall trend clearly favored MGS3 from the start. By the time the morning vote hit, MGS was too far ahead and too many people were asleep to make any difference in who won.

Even though SotC lost here, it was still one of the two of three most memorable things about this contest. I fear it might have been a flash in the pan, too, because it's very reasonable the game got a one-time contest title boost. Then again the HD rerelease will be in people's minds before the next contest, so that could boost it. SotC needs the HD remix treatment more than any game not named Final Fantasy 7.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4187&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=119)

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## (1)The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask vs (3)The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker 2010

_source: (1)The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask vs (3)The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker 2010 (revid 69265)_

## Results

**Round Four**

Saturday, December 18, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Northwest Division Final
- **Match \#:** 120
- **Match Date:** Saturday, December 18, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 7,287
- **Oracle Expectations:** The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - 54.73% 71 for - 8 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - 29.56%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 161 The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask: 4828 The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker: 1970

Can you believe some people (WHO I LOVE DEARLY) spent the last 6 years arguing off and on about how Wind Waker could have beaten Majora in a direct 1 on 1 match? Allen setting up rivalries wasn't the best idea in a couple cases and we all looked like idiots for thinking Pokémon would get in the way of this, but at the end of the day this was a match worth having.

I hate being that guy, but:

<http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3199>

<http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1180>

There was never any debate here, and Majora would have won this match whether or not it was getting some big contest bandwagon. Majora is a very beloved title, while a lot of people view Wind Waker as the death of Zelda.

Zelda games before and including Majora's Mask: The Legend of Zelda, The Adventure of Link, Link to the Past, Link's Awakening, Ocarina of Time, Majora's Mask. All A++++++ games. And go away if you don't think Zelda 2 is godtier, kthx, I don't want to hear it from people who don't like hard games.

Zelda games after and including Wind Waker: Wind Waker, Four Swords Adventures, Minish Cap, Twilight Princess, Link's Crossbow Training, Phantom Hourglass, Spirit Tracks, Skyward Sword. Otherwise known as boring, gimmick, bad, average, bad, REALLY bad, "not as bad as Phantom Hourglass" and "oh yay Toon Adult Link".

It would have been the crime of crimes had Wind Waker won this match. I'd seriously put it right next to Brawl \> Melee as a "what the f\*\*\* were you people thinking?" type of match. I'm not as vocal about the Zelda series as I am the Smash series, but I love them almost equally and Majora \> Wind Waker was absolutely awesome. Good to know you people got a series correct this contest! Twilight Princess being strong is kind of bad, but I'll forgive it since you guys killed Brawl.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4188&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=120)

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---

## (1)Fallout 3 vs (1)Metroid Prime 2010

_source: (1)Fallout 3 vs (1)Metroid Prime 2010 (revid 69266)_

## Results

**Round Five**

Sunday, December 19, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Contest Quarterfinal
- **Match \#:** 121
- **Match Date:** Sunday, December 19, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 1,652
- **Oracle Expectations:** Fallout 3 - 52.90% 64 for - 10 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Fallout 3 - 19.13%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 136 Fallout 3: 4088 Metroid Prime: 2452

This match was AMAZING, but not for the reasons you might think. First and foremost were people posting that [Liberty Prime video](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=298Cw3_qGwE) all over the place. Few things lift the spirit more than Liberty Prime yelling at communist scum. And then there was Umineko's 7th episode getting released on match day, which was of course awesome given it was the best episode yet.

On top of all that, we ended up getting a really good match. Way back before the contest started, Ngamer had an episode of The Show where he called Metroid Prime making the semifinal and he was literally laughed at by some idiot guest who thought Prime wouldn't even make it out of its own division. Who was that guy, anyway? \<\_\<

Ngamer was one Europe/morning vote away from looking like a genius, but even in Prime's loss he looked awesome for calling this. Kudos, bud.

Unfortunately for Prime, it never led beyond the first hour. It would be nice to say Prime had a great lead and only lost because of the morning vote, but Fallout 3 started pushing a lead once the crazy Prime power hour ended, and it shook Prime off for good a little while later once the night vote started. Prime is a western game through and through and had almost no success anywhere else, so it was expected Prime would start falling off overnight a bit faster than other Nintendo games might have. Prime may very well have won a day/24-hour match, though, and it's just one more reason we need to start having 24 hour matches a round or two earlier. If you win 4 matches and make it out of your division, you deserve a full 24 hours to win or lose.

It's also highly likely this match was decided by the timely release of New Vegas, and who really knows how a potential rematch would go. Fallout could get bigger, Prime could get smaller because it enjoyed a contest title boost, or anything else. We don't really know.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4189&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=121)

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## (2)Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs (4)The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess 2010

_source: (2)Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs (4)The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess 2010 (revid 69267)_

## Results

**Round Five**

Sunday, December 19, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Contest Quarterfinal
- **Match \#:** 122
- **Match Date:** Sunday, December 19, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 3,171
- **Oracle Expectations:** Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 53.42% 68 for - 9 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 10.96%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 100 Super Smash Bros. Brawl: 3909 The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess: 2064

Zelda took the first 5 minutes, then completely fell apart en route to an easy loss. On the heels of Brawl \> Melee with a lot of people still pretty pissed off, Zelda only holding a lead for 5 minutes 1 on 1 during a day match against Brawl (and this match can also be considered SFF if you believe TP is a Wii game) was bad news for the rest of the field.

There were two ways of looking at this match at the time, depending entirely on where you thought TP was in relation to FFX and/or Majora's Mask. Obviously if they're all on equal footing, the contest was over and Brawl had it won. And for all we know, Brawl would have won without outside circumstances. The other school of thought was how Majora and FFX could beat TP and thus keep the final in question, though Brawl getting 52.75% this late in the contest was nothing to sneeze at. FFX and Majora could have been stronger than Twilight Princess, but there was a lot of room in there to squeeze in and still lose.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4190&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=122)

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## (1)Final Fantasy X vs (1)Resident Evil 4 2010

_source: (1)Final Fantasy X vs (1)Resident Evil 4 2010 (revid 69268)_

## Results

**Round Five**

Monday, December 20, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Contest Quarterfinal
- **Match \#:** 123
- **Match Date:** Monday, December 20, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 6,477
- **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy X - 53.21% 73 for - 5 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Final Fantasy X - 29.09%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 82 Final Fantasy X: 4101 Resident Evil 4: 1590

Final Fantasy X came out one round too early with its best match of the entire contest. There was legitimate upset hype here, because FFX disappointed in every match but 1 and RE4 equaled or exceeded expectations in every match but 1.

By the time the match came around, people relegated themselves to the fact FFX was probably going to win due to this being a night match. However, one would think RE4 would get a big board push or something.

Nope. RE4 led for a grand total of 90 seconds, then got its doors blown off in an Ulti-style blowout. When you're hyped to pull off a big upset, you're allowed to lose. It's okay. But you not allowed to only score 43% without being considered a disappointment. Of all the games in this contest, RE4 was the most likely to pull a contest title boost run from nowhere. Instead, it just got its clock cleaned.

Know how many updates RE4 won after the freeze? One, by 2 whole votes. Woohoo. It also tied in one other update. Other than that, RE4 just laid down and took a major beating. FFX had several updates this match where it scored above 60%, and it looked like a champion in this match. It was clearly the favorite based off its prediction percentage in this match compared to others this round, and it went out and performed like one. If only it could have kept that up a mere two days later.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4191&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=123)

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## (1)Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater vs (1)The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 2010

_source: (1)Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater vs (1)The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 2010 (revid 69269)_

## Results

**Round Five**

Monday, December 20, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Contest Quarterfinal
- **Match \#:** 124
- **Match Date:** Monday, December 20, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 9,474
- **Oracle Expectations:** The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - 55.23% 74 for - 3 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - 14.79%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 83 Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater: 1667 The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask: 3539

Round 4's first day was pretty good, with an in-doubt close match and a close-but-not-really close match. Day 2? Not so much, what with two godslayer blowouts from two contest titans against lesser competition. Of the eight games in round 4, MGS3 felt like the one that didn't really belong. No MGS game this decade can really be considered Game of the Decade material, whereas you could make a decent case for the other seven games.

It showed in the match, too. MGS3 spent approximately zero updates acting like a match that deserved to make it this far into a contest, while Majora's Mask's being a legit threat to win the contest started coming into form here. One wonders how Star of the Contest would have done in MGS3's place.

I know it was a day match against Zelda and this was never going to be in doubt, but MGS3 could have shown some life. This match also put to rest any chatter about whether or not an MGS game would have beaten GSC in this match had it actually taken place.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4192&num=2)
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## (1)Fallout 3 vs (2)Super Smash Bros. Brawl 2010

_source: (1)Fallout 3 vs (2)Super Smash Bros. Brawl 2010 (revid 69270)_

## Results

**Round Six**

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Contest Semifinal
- **Match \#:** 125
- **Match Date:** Tuesday, December 21, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 7,565
- **Oracle Expectations:** Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 57.64% 73 for - 0 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 6.88%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 63 Fallout 3: 1756 Super Smash Bros. Brawl: 2900

DAWN OF THE FIRST DAY

-72 Hours Remain-

Sandbag ZERO, Big Boss vs Colossus, Brawl's Fallout, Santa's Naughty List and Eternal Diablo and Toon Deity are in my opinion the five best pictures of this contest, with honorable mentions going to FPS Samus vs Gordon, INTO YOUR SOUL, GSKart and Brawl's Cast vs Majora's.

Not many 54-46 matches are interesting, but Brawl was not supposed to struggle with Fallout 3 here. Like, at all. If you look at oracle PREDIX, not many people had Brawl getting under 55% here.

And yet it happened. Early on, Brawl was over 60%. But then after the freeze, it started going down. And down. And down. And down. It just kept on going down bit by bit overnight, and then Europe's vote hit and it kept on going down even more. Fallout even started winning updates on the regular. It wasn't going to pull off any crazy comeback attempts, but it just kept on shooting off percentage one limb at a time.

But hey, crazy stuff can happen late in contests and Brawl still had that godslayer morning + afternoon vote, right? After all this was the start (FINALLY!) of 24 hour matches, so Brawl was bound to go way up and escape this rut it was in. Brawl was down below 54% come morning, so it really had nowhere to go but up.

And, well... you can all see what happened. Brawl's nadir this match was 53.82% at 10:30 in the morning. Yes, 10:30 in the morning when Brawl started ripping Melee a new one 6 hours prior a couple rounds ago. On top of that, with the morning and afternoon vote in its back pocket, Brawl increased a grand total of 0.61% throughout the rest of this match. Fallout 3 holding up well during the day would have been impressive enough as-is, but holding up this well during Brawl's best time, the time frame that allowed it to crush every game up to and including Melee and Zelda, was really something else. This ranks right with Mass Effect's loss to Portal as the best loss of the whole contest, and it was good foreshadowing for what would end up happening to Brawl in the final.

Weird things always happen late in contests, but it would be disingenuous to wholly credit that for why Fallout 3 did so well. Voters get really smart during the final week, and they knew the final four games were Nintendo, Nintendo, Square and Bethesda. Unless you believe Game of the Year polls translate to contests (lol), this was one of those matches where voters were sending a clear "We're sick of Square and Nintendo always winning" message. But unlike years past, their numbers are rapidly growing and making a difference. Nintendo and Square being so bad for so long have really made an impact on people, and in 10 years you might see the equivalent of this match go the other way.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4193&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=125)

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## (1)Final Fantasy X vs (1)The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 2010

_source: (1)Final Fantasy X vs (1)The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 2010 (revid 69271)_

## Results

**Round Six**

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Contest Semifinal
- **Match \#:** 126
- **Match Date:** Wednesday, December 22, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 211
- **Oracle Expectations:** The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - 48.42% 13 for - 63 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - 7.78%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 81 Final Fantasy X: 1838 The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask: 1541

DAWN OF THE SECOND DAY

-48 Hours Remain-

Without a doubt the best match of this entire contest. This was a throwback to the days of not having all this crazy overload of information to work with... while having all this crazy overload of information to work with. For 24 solid hours, this was just two sides rooting for a favorite and there was no way of knowing who would win until very very late -- just like the days of yonder when we couldn't predict every trend and percentage and shift and demographic and etc down to the hundredth of a decimal.

Majora's Mask came out rocking early but fell off fast, indicating joke/bandwagon trends. Seeing a Zelda game get that type of trend is kind of weird, but one can argue a Zelda game with that trend is the most dangerous type of game there is. Regardless, Zelda rocked the first 15 minutes before falling off a rock -- relatively speaking, that is. FFX recovered and started taking over the match at that point, but it wasn't without a struggle. Zelda fought every step of the way and kept this match at near-deadlocked status for three solid hours. It took FFX exactly three hours just to build a triple digit lead, and one could argue the early struggle is where FFX's eventual downfall sourced from.

But even with the early struggle in trying to shake Majora off like a bad case of the fleas, FFX was bound to explode during its dominant dead hours voting block. And dominate it did. Over the next 4½ hours, FFX went from struggling to get a lead over 100 to increasing its lead past 1000 with relative ease. Then the morning vote hit, and Zelda did little more than slow FFX's gains down a bit. Were this a during-school vote, Zelda might have started cutting here. But with it being the week of Christmas, the trends were all diluted.

Zelda played the stall game, but the longer it stalled, the more it looked like FFX had this match won. Diluted trend or not, FFX held serve in the morning a lot longer than it might have during school time. It hit a lead of 1400 at 9:30, and then it just hovered there. And hovered. And hovered..... and then it hovered some more. Zelda looked like it would make a comeback attempt after a cut or two, but then FFX would take it all back. At one point, near noon of all times, the lead got near 1500 votes.

The match continued in hover mode, and then.... the clock turned 12. For Majora's Mask, be it noon or midnight, things go completely apes\*\*\* once the clock turns 12. For Majora's Mask, this meant 36 Hours Remain. The Moon didn't take kindly to being f\*\*\*ed with.

In layman's terms, the lead was 1350 at noon. Zelda then went on a Halo-like daytime tear, scoring several updates over 55% and just all-around making FFX it's b\*\*\*\*. There was almost no resistance at all from FFX during all this daytime afternoon Zelda dominance, and it was so one-sided Zelda only needed 4½ hours to get rid of the entire 1350 votes. Zelda continued flying upwards after this and began building its own lead, though not at the torrent pace of the comeback.

The goal for Zelda from here was building as big a lead as possible, because there was no way FFX wasn't going to make a push during the evening and second night vote phase. And build a lead it did. Over the next few hours, it would push upward to a near 450 vote lead.

This is where it stood with 5½ hours left, and this is where FFX began its own comeback attempt. 450 votes in 5½ hours is hardly impossible, but the issue here for FFX was that it was trying to come back against a Zelda game. FFX made its cuts, but Zelda would keep pushing back and keep things in stall-world. Every time FFX looked like it was getting ready to make a big push, Zelda would push back. Overall, however, FFX was gaining ground. It was almost like watching the stock market trend of gold, where even despite a few peaks and valleys the overall price continues going up -- only this was overall watching Zelda's lead going down.

Unfortunately for FFX, this would ultimately cost it the match. The constant back-and-forth kept gradually increasing the odds of a Zelda victory, and the match was all but over when Zelda still led by 400 with 2 hours left. FFX would finally get its ass in gear over the final two hours, but it was too little and too late and served as little more than window dressing. Zelda would go on to win this match by 211 votes, but one has to wonder how this match goes if FFX starts making the serious push a couple hours earlier. Zelda was obviously the game being rallied more by the voters -- the game people wanted to see win more, because for whatever dumb reason there's this pervasive "SQUARE ALWAYS WINS AND I HATE IT" mentality late in contests even though it wasn't won a contest in 5 years -- and Zelda ended up winning because its fans simply wanted it more.

There are many reasons you can cite for why a contest entrant wins a match close -- pictures, rallying, fanbases, companies, brackets and all the rest -- but this match was a throwback to how contests used to be. Just two sides going all-out late in a contest, with one close winner and one close loser. One elated game and one heartbroken game. One really happy fanbase and one really bitter fanbase. Sometimes, that's all you need for a great match. Here's hoping there are many more matches like this to come. You can have your x-stats and geo trends and oracles and calculators. I'll take my matches like this, where no amount of information can predict what happens and things exist entirely in the those unknown spots no amount of math can calculate.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4194&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=126)

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## (2)Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs (1)The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 2010

_source: (2)Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs (1)The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 2010 (revid 69272)_

## Results

**Championship**

Thursday, December 23, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Contest Final
- **Match \#:** 127
- **Match Date:** Thursday, December 23, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 906
- **Oracle Expectations:** The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - 50.03% 24 for - 45 against
- **GameFAQs Prediction:** The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - 4.20%
- **Battle Contest Predictions:** Banked: 83 Super Smash Bros. Brawl: 1830 The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask: 1347

DAWN OF THE FINAL DAY

-24 Hours Remain-

Right after the dogfight with FFX, Majora immediately had to turn around for what would be a presumed dogfight final against a heavy hitter from its own company. It was not a final many people expected, and it would end up a final not nearly as close as the final score would indicate.

Though Zelda would end up winning this match by 900 votes, that number really is a misnomer. Because for the second match in a row, Majora's Mask went out and rocked face early with borderline joke trends. But unlike the match with FFX, Majora and Brawl have near identical trends with Majora getting the clear overnight advantage. So when Majora went out and took control of this match early and kept increasing its lead by a considerable rate overnight, the match was all but over. And whenever Brawl looked like it was going to make an overnight push, Zelda took it all back. It continued on this pace well into the morning and almost until noon. The lead peaked near 1500, but Brawl did come back and win the day vote to make this match respectable.

Were this final a 12 hour day match, Brawl would have won it. Beating Twilight Princess during the day like it did and cutting 600 votes off of a Zelda game in the final during the day was very admirable, but the push in the final was window dressing. It was clear Zelda had this match won when Brawl comeback attempt was much too slow, and even the big cuts were pushed back or countered.

In the end, this was the closest final we've ever had and arguably the only final where we had zero clue who would win going in. It was also our first true blue Good vs Evil final since Link vs Mario in 2002, and once again it was the good side that came out on top.

I joked a lot about Zelda fans being drones this contest, but I will never again make fun of that fanbase. You guys came through when it mattered most, and prevented the terrible Super Smash Bros. Brawl from being named our GameFAQs Game of the Decade. Nothing would have been more embarrassing. Seriously, any of the other 127 games would have been better. Thankfully, we ended up with a pretty deserving one winning. Who knows what happens if Melee beats Brawl, but that's ancient history now.

Your Game of the Decade, Majora's Mask!

Some argued if Majora deserved it, and Lightning Strikes made the best point about all this:

<strong>From: Lightning Strikes \| \#009</strong>

Brawl is one of the most popular games of the decade, one of the more acclaimed games, and is definitely the most hyped.

Majora's Mask is more a shadow of the 90's. It was developed in the 90's, using an engine from the 90's, and was on a 90's system. It's not really "of the decade".

Though Majora was technically released this decade, it really does have a 1990s feel to it. That game winning our contest the way it did was a clear old games \> newer games message from this site.

## Match Trends

## External Links

- [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4195&num=2)
- [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k10&type=match&match=127)

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## Link vs Santa Claus 2010

_source: Link vs Santa Claus 2010 (revid 69145)_

## Results

**Bonus Match**

Friday, December 24, 2010

## Ulti's Analysis

- **Division:** Bonus
- **Match \#:** 128 (Extra)
- **Match Date:** Friday, December 24, 2010
- **Vote difference:** 19,556
- **Oracle Expectations:** Link - 55.07% 33 for - 23 against

Some might look at Link winning this match so easily on Christmas Eve as cruel and unusual punishment for Santa, but I disagree. Santa nearly broke 40% on Link in a legit 24 hour match on the home page. Not something dumb like a Board 8-only poll with Jay Solano or a LOL 4-way match -- a legit bonus poll.

But look at Link's contest history for a sec.

Look at the characters on this list that didn't score 40% on Link. Mario couldn't do it in two attempts. Zack couldn't do it in three. Sonic couldn't do it last year. Luigi couldn't even break thirty percent on the guy. Samus couldn't do it in a year she didn't get SFFd all that badly.

You get the idea. This wasn't about whether or not Santa could win, because he wasn't going to. This was about whether or not he could hold up reasonably well, and he did. If you ask me, this is proof Allen is thinking of going broad spectrum next contest and allow all characters appearing in video games to be eligible. And he should. We have no major twists left to do other than letting Batman, Vader, Homer, Spiderman, Wolverine, Bugs Bunny, Ariel and all the rest of the crew in. It would be the most up-in-the-air contest since Summer 2002.

Make it happen, Allen.

## Match Trends

## External Links

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