# Best Game Ever (2015) _Board 8 wiki -- CC BY-SA 3.0. Contest overview plus 131 match writeups, in match order. Converted from MediaWiki to Markdown; navigation, image embeds and footnotes stripped. See ATTRIBUTION.md._ --- ## Fall 2015 Contest _source: Fall 2015 Contest (revid 88288)_
Fall 2015 Contest

Announced:

Started:

November 5, 2015

Ended:

December 15, 2015

Winner:

Winner: Undertale Runner-up: Ocarina of Time

Contest Winner:

Boge - 349 points

Notable matches:

Mass Effect > SMG2, DKC2 > Xenoblade,

Pokémon RBY > SMB3, Majora > Super Metroid,

Melee > Chrono Trigger, Mario RPG > MGS3, All Undertale matches
**Fall 2015 Contest** **Fall 2015 Contest** was the third **Best. Game. Ever.** tournament held on [GameFAQs](http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs). The contest was first announced in spring by SBAllen after cancelling the **Worst. Character. Ever.** contest that supposed to run in the summer that same year. Much to the delight of Board 8, there would be no divisions by era this time around, and all matches were 1v1 and lasted for 24 hours. For the first time, multiple matches were held at the same time. Four matches were held a day in Rounds 1 and 2, two in rounds 3-5, and finally 1 match a day for the semi finals and final match. ## Ulti's Pre-Contest Analysis So two years after the fallout of Draven made us seriously question if we'd ever get contests again, the announcement came that we were getting Best Game Ever 3. The overwhelming response to Allen's topic was to get a fair 128 game 1v1 bracket, with no divisions by era and no BS. The following days saw Allen make a bunch of math topics to spoil the format, which would end up being... a fair 128 game 1v1 contest! I can't really overstate how cool this was. Contest fans have wanted this format for 10+ years, and it really looked like we would never see it. Then vote totals fell off the map year after year, and the concern was such a contest would absolutely suck even if we did get it. On top of that, the contest would end up being 4 matches per day for two rounds, then two matches per day until the semifinals. A lot of people didn't like this idea, myself included, because the fear was we would see low vote totals and have too many matches decided by collateral damage. The example everyone will jump to is that Mario 3 might have beaten Pokemon without the Undertale rally, though one could argue Pokemon would have won that one no matter what. In the end, the fears about the format weren't warranted and we ended up having a DAMN good contest. Snubs was a huge theme of the pre-contest chatter, and there were a LOT of snubs due to Allen's weird contest prerequisites. Notable snubs: Sonic 3 & Knuckles (the guru nomination), Mario 1, Zelda 1, Link's Awakening, Final Fantasy 1, Mega Man 2, Street Fighter 2, Super Smash Bros. Brawl, League of Legends, Star Fox 64, God of War, and I'm sure others I've missed. ## Ulti's Post-Contest Analysis First and foremost, let's get Allen's data dump out there for archive purposes: Allen: "Howdy all. I've been watching b8 over the contest and time and time again, I see people talking about vote stuffing, how things can't possibly be as they seem, and so on. I'd like to set the record straight and discuss these rallies. I'll show what they are, explain what they aren't, and hopefully that will put an end to it. First, let's look at the referral traffic per match for this contest: You can easily pick out the Undertale matches and can see the effect that the rallies had on both those matches and the surrounding ones. The reddit traffic is generally constant during the contest. It goes up during rallies of course, but not nearly as significantly as other sources. You can see that the Tumblr and Twitter traffic massively spikes during these rallies. Outside of the UT matches, those sources are very small. You can also see that FB became a pretty big rally player near the end once people started reaching out to other sources for rallying. The next 4 referral sources (SA, 4chan, Steam, Smashboards) added just a few sprinkles on top. Let's just look at the most recent match of SSBM v UT. Here are the top four ISPs (making up over 35% of the total vote) and how they voted: Comcast: 48.87% / 51.13% Time Warner: 48.96% / 51.04% AT&T: 46.30% / 53.70% Verizon: 49.41% / 50.59% You can see that these results are all pretty close to the final result. Undertale simply got more votes. It wasn't vote stuffing or any conspiracy, it was actual people coming to the site and voting. Let's actually look into that further. Now, to vote in the contest, we require multiple things: A minimum of two pageviews from a JavaScript-enabled browser that accepts and sends back cookies. This blocks the most pedestrian of vote stuffing attempts, as well as ensures that people can't be tricked into voting in the polls by visiting a link off-site. To counteract bots and people using multiple devices from one location, we restrict votes to one per IP address for logged-out users, and carefully scrutinize multiple votes for logged-in users. For the Melee/UT battle, multiple votes from the same IP were 709 / 641 in favor of Melee, so that's not really an issue. Now, a few people have mentioned that it's "easy" to stuff votes by simply using different devices (or clearing your cookies) and changing your IP address, even by driving around and using multiple open wi-fi signals to vote. Well, of course a few people are going do that, just because they can, and it's impossible to tell the difference between one person using two devices in two locations and two people doing it. But, how many votes can one person could actually get into the system doing this? And remember, by stuffing like this, you'd end up creating clusters of votes from a single area or a narrow range of IP addresses, which are easy to spot (and happens naturally all the time, thanks to cell phone companies re-using narrow blocks of IP addresses, typically evening out for both battlers). So, just in case, if we take all of the potential vote "clusters" (more than 10 votes from a single block of 255 neighboring IP addresses) and add them up... it's 2414 / 1897 for Melee. Finally, just for laughs, on Friday we had one last thought: What if there's some rogue botnet that's forging votes through thousands of compromised home computers? So, we set up one last gasp attempt to catch this phantom vote-stuffer, throwing in an additional hash into the voting script right in the middle of an Undertale rally that would have immediately exposed any voters not actually using a live web browser. And it didn't catch a thing. Well, it did catch one registered user (who we refuse to give any additional publicity to) that apparently tries to get the very first vote each day via curl script. So, from a technical perspective, there's nothing suspicious about the incoming votes, and definitely nothing favoring one side over the other. Real vote stuffing (where a small number of people vote a large number of times) leaves clues and signs, and there aren't any. We've chased down every lead, and explored every possibility. We didn't believe Undertale's fanbase was capable of this at first either, and nobody else saw this coming but the 124 people who picked it to win the contest (making it the 17th most popular pick). And remember, it's all just a big popularity contest, and we all know that the actual Best. Game. Ever. is Final Fantasy IV. Tomorrow will be a fun day of Grudge Matches, so hopefully you'll all enjoy that. During the contest, we are pretty tight-lipped about these types of things because we don't want people looking for patterns and trying to find weaknesses. With the contest basically over at this point, there's no concern, since the methodology changes (and improves) from year to year." Nanis: "Can you tell us how Undertale matches go for registered - unregistered users? Can be funny if it's something like 80-20 against Undertale" Allen: "Sure, why not. It should be a surprise to no one that UT would lose every time if it's just logged in users. But a contest with only logged in users would be predictable and boring. Undertale vs. Mass Effect 3 - 29.49% 70.51% Fallout 3 vs. Undertale - 75.67% 24.33% Undertale vs. Super Mario World - 19.28% 80.72% Pokemon Red/Blue vs. Undertale - 76.30% 23.70% Undertale vs. Super Mario 64 - 26.21% 73.79% Smash Bros. Melee vs. Undertale - 69.59% 30.41% Undertale vs. Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 33.44% 66.56% SSBM would have lost to CT and FFVII. Smash Bros. Melee vs. Portal: 70.37% / 29.63% Smash Bros. Melee vs. Pokemon Gold/Silver: 57.72% / 42.28% Smash Bros. Melee vs. Kingdom Hearts II: 59.51% / 40.49% Chrono Trigger vs. Smash Bros. Melee: 63.28% / 36.72% Smash Bros. Melee vs. Final Fantasy VII: 42.92% / 57.08%" Allen, in response to some of Lopen's ridiculous conspiracy theories: "Lopen, let's get real specific (and a little privacy-invading) for just one second. For the city of (city where you live), using (ISP you are connecting on) the Melee/UT votes were 195 to 245 for Undertale. That's right. Those Undertale voters? They're all around you, right now. They live. And they are watching you." Contest favorites, aka the top 20 games that people picked to win the entire contest in their bracket: 1: The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 4145 2: Final Fantasy VII - 1831 3: Chrono Trigger - 703 4: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - 429 5: Grand Theft Auto V - 319 6: The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 281 7: The Last of Us - 251 8: Super Smash Bros. Melee - 239 9: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green Version - 230 10: The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - 227 11: Minecraft - 205 12: Super Mario Bros. 3 - 203 13: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 203 14: Dark Souls - 171 15: Final Fantasy VI - 158 16: Super Mario 64 - 125 17: Undertale - 124 18: Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater - 122 19: World of Warcraft - 121 20: Half-Life 2 - 104 I'm pretty sure I covered my thoughts on this contest and rallies in general during several writeups, so I'll skip right to the fun stuff. Allen's grade this contest is a solid A. The only thing stopping me from an A+ is changing formats halfway through. Winning a division is worth having a poll to yourself, and letting the tournament quarterfinal be as originally intended would have meant two extra days for the contest. This is frankly unacceptable to do for several reasons, the biggest of which being that people might pick winners based on who the poll is shared with. The other, like I said, is that winning a division needs to be treated with the utmost respect. That being said, this format is the best idea these contests have had since they were first thought up. It needs to stick around, with 4 matches per day for two rounds, two matches per day for two rounds, then 1 match per day for the quarterfinals, semifinals, and final. If this causes neat rallies and more random results in the future, good. This format is the best one we've had to date, and the whole 12 hour day/night thing has run its course. 24 hour polls are the way to go, and 4 polls per day for 2 rounds lets you blast through the boring matches, then gradually give the more important matches their own time. Most people seem to agree, which I'm happy with. That, along with rallies making contests fun, is my big takeaway from this contest season. People look forward to my contest ranking every season for whatever reason, and here it is: Fall 2015 (Games) Fall 2010 (GotD) Spring 2004 (Games) Summer 2002 (Characters) Summer 2013 (Characters) Winter 2010 (Characters) Summer 2003 (Characters) Summer 2005 (Characters) Spring 2009 (Games 4-way) Summer 2007 (4-way Characters) Summer 2006 (Female Bracket) Spring 2006 (Series) Summer 2008 (Characters 4-way) Summer 2004 (Characters) Spring 2005 (Villains) Fall 2011 (2v2 Characters) It's true (I also bumped Summer 2003 down a little). Best contest we've ever had, best winner we've ever had, most fun I've ever had writing a PCA, and best format we've ever had. This contest was really good, especially with the format being so neat. If nothing else, I hope Allen realizes how good an idea multiple polls per day for 24 hours really is. I know we were all worried about wildly different vote totals and such, but it clearly worked out in the end. Someone asked if I enjoyed winning 2004 or cheering for Undertale more. My honest answer is Undertale. You guys have to remember that I'd been very jaded with video games for a very long time. I liked a lot of games, don't get me wrong, but I didn't love them. Undertale got me to love gaming again, and did a lot to help me get my life on a positive track. You can call that lame if you want, I don't mind, but I'm not alone in feeling that way. Undertale's community is one of the best I've ever been a part of, and cheering it on this contest will always be one of my favorite gaming memories. It was a neat thing to be a part of, and it was especially neat relearning what loving video games is like. I was really and truly worried that Brawl murdered gaming for me, but it turned out not to be a permanent thing. I don't think you guys really understand how huge that is. Game of the Decade is my \#2 contest ever entirely because Brawl lost. Fuck Brawl. Last, but not least... The Ultimate Loser™! Bayonetta 2! Undertale \> Ocarina \> Super Mario RPG \> Metal Gear Solid 3 \> Metal Gear Solid \> Shadow of the Colossus \> Red Dead Redemption \> Bayonetta 2. Thanks as always and see you next time! ## Ctes' Pre-Contest Analysis Allen deserves tons of credit for the way he set things up and hyped us contest regulars. It was easy to guess what his polls meant, but the Four Four Two One One One One topic made us discuss. It was easy to come to the conclusion that it must mean several matches a day and we knew they'd all run 24 hours. The discussion was about how matches running at the same time would affect each other. We'll get back to that during this analysis. In any case, it was a great idea to have a 128 game bracket 1v1 that didn't take forever. Even better was his hint topics about the bracket. We've asked about a 1v1 games contest without divisions by era in forever and we finally had it. He put out some good hints for us to discuss and gave more hints as we asked. A really fun way to leak the bracket slightly before putting it up. In general, the bracket is really well constructed. We'll talk much more about that as we go through round 1. For now I'll focus a bit on what didn't make it. Allen made a system heavily favoring new games, which is a bit of a shame considering this is called Best Game *Ever*. I don't mind a majority being new games, but there some unfortunate snubs. First we have the exclusion of Super Mario Bros and The Legend of Zelda. The former is especially weird to exclude from a contest like this. It's not the best thing there ever was, but considering its legacy, it deserves a spot for sure. It even was in the top 100 nominations, but having no metacritic reviews or whatever screwed it over I guess, which I really darn unfair! Look at some of the low seeds and it's just weird how they were chosen above SMB. I complained about this back then and was usually met with responses like “do you really need yet another Mario game?” And no, I don't. The amount is fine all things considered, but I'd love to remove one of the others in favor of SMB. How many Mario games there are in the bracket actually doesn't matter here, it's all about this one game. But enough about that! There are a few more notable snubs. Brawl is one. I know Smash 4 pretty much replaced it, but it feels weird not having a finalist from the previous contest making the bracket. I was certain it would too, but I guess it lacked the nominations. Even if no one played it, I think it would be interesting to see what its strength would be now. Another is A Link Between Worlds. After that 2013 GotY match with TLoU, a good bunch of people wanted to see it in a contest, but it just wasn't here. Most notably is probably the League of Legends exclusion. We'll probably never know for certain whether or not Allen created the system he did solely to rule out LoL, but I don't really think that's the only he had in mind when making it at least. ## Bracket
Contest Bracket
Division I Chrono Trigger Smash Bros. Melee Smash Bros. Melee Final Fantasy VII Smash Bros. Melee Undertale **UNDERTALE** Zelda: OoT
\(1\) Chrono Trigger (16) Ratchet & Clank: Up Your Arsenal Chrono Trigger Dragon Quest VIII Chrono Trigger Final Fantasy X
\(8\) Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King (9) Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 3
\(5\) Batman: Arkham City (12) Mega Man X Mega Man X Final Fantasy X
\(4\) Final Fantasy X (13) Half-Life
\(3\) Super Smash Bros. Melee (14) Portal Smash Bros. Melee Pokemon G/S Smash Bros. Melee Kingdom Hearts II
\(6\) Pokémon Gold/Silver (11) The World Ends With You
\(7\) Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (10) Kingdom Hearts II Kingdom Hearts II The Last of Us
\(2\) The Last of Us (15) Halo 3
Division II Final Fantasy VI Final Fantasy VII
\(1\) Final Fantasy VI (16) Assassin's Creed II Final Fantasy VI Paper Mario: TYD Final Fantasy VI Zelda: The Wind Waker
\(8\) Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door (9) Tales of Symphonia
\(5\) Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic (12) Xenogears KOTOR Wind Waker
\(4\) The Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker (13) Pokémon X/Y
\(3\) Super Smash Bros. for Wii U (14) Planescape: Torment Smash Bros. Wii U Mass Effect SSB4 Final Fantasy VII
\(6\) Super Mario Galaxy 2 (11) Mass Effect
\(7\) Minecraft (10) Halo: Combat Evolved Halo Final Fantasy VII
\(2\) Final Fantasy VII (15) Journey
Division III Pokémon R/B Undertale Undertale Super Mario 64
\(1\) Super Mario Bros. 3 (16) Age of Empires II: The Age of Kings Super Mario Bros. 3 Pokémon R/B Pokémon R/B Sonic the Hedgehog 2
\(8\) Pokémon Red/Blue (9) Tetris
\(5\) Portal 2 (12) Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Uncharted 2
\(4\) Uncharted 2: Among Thieves (13) The Walking Dead
\(3\) Fallout 3 (14) Life is Strange Fallout 3 Undertale Undertale Super Mario World
\(6\) Undertale (11) Mass Effect 3
\(7\) Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (10) Final Fantasy VIII Final Fantasy VIII Super Mario World
\(2\) Super Mario World (15) Animal Crossing: New Leaf
Division IV Skyrim Super Mario 64
\(1\) The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (16) Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Skyrim GoldenEye Skyrim Metroid Prime
\(8\) GoldenEye 007 (9) Diablo II
\(5\) Metroid Prime (12) The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind Metroid Prime Half-Life 2
\(4\) Half-Life 2 (13) Demon's Souls
\(3\) Super Mario 64 (14) Mario Kart 8 Super Mario 64 Final Fantasy Tactics Super Mario 64 Zelda: Twilight Princess
\(6\) Final Fantasy Tactics (11) Resident Evil 2
\(7\) The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (10) Skies of Arcadia Zelda: Twilight Princess Persona 4
\(2\) Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4 (15) Nine Hours, Nine Persons, Nine Doors
Division V Zelda: OoT SOTN Zelda: OoT Zelda: LttP Zelda: Oot Super Mario RPG
\(1\) The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time (16) Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft Zelda: OoT Suikoden II Zelda: OoT Final Fantasy IX
\(8\) Suikoden II (9) Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate
\(5\) Okami (12) Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos Okami Final Fantasy IX
\(4\) Final Fantasy IX (13) Kingdom Hearts
\(3\) Xenoblade Chronicles (14) Donkey Kong Country 2: Diddy's Kong Quest DKC 2 Fire Emblem DKC 2 SOTN
\(6\) Fire Emblem Awakening (11) Super Mario Maker
\(7\) Banjo-Kazooie (10) Baldur's Gate II: Shadows of Amn Banjo-Kazooie SOTN
\(2\) Castlevania: Symphony of the Night (15) Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trials and Tribulations
Division VI Zelda: LttP Zelda: Majora's Mask
\(1\) The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past (16) Cave Story Zelda: LttP Final Fantasy IV Zelda: LttP Dark Souls
\(8\) Deus Ex (9) Final Fantasy IV
\(5\) Metal Gear Solid V (12) Perfect Dark Metal Gear Solid V Dark Souls
\(4\) Dark Souls (13) Sid Meier's Civilization V
\(3\) Super Metroid (14) Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare Super Metroid Super Mario Galaxy Super Metroid Zelda: Majora's Mask
\(6\) Super Mario Galaxy (11) Dragon Age: Origins
\(7\) Bloodborne (10) Final Fantasy XII Final Fantasy XII Majora's Mask
\(2\) The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask (15) Valkyria Chronicles
Division VII Super Mario RPG Resident Evil 4 Super Mario RPG Metal Gear Solid 3
\(1\) Grand Theft Auto V (16) Shenmue Grand Theft Auto V Super Mario RPG Super Mario RPG Chrono Cross
\(8\) The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion (9) Super Mario RPG
\(5\) Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (12) Shovel Knight GTA: San Andreas Chrono Cross
\(4\) World of Warcraft (13) Chrono Cross
\(3\) The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt (14) The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth The Witcher 3 Metal Gear Solid 2 Metal Gear Solid 2 Resident Evil 4
\(6\) Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty (11) Resident Evil
\(7\) Fallout: New Vegas (10) BioShock Infinite Fallout: New Vegas Resident Evil 4
\(2\) Resident Evil 4 (15) Paper Mario
Division VIII Metal Gear Solid Metal Gear Solid 3
\(1\) Metal Gear Solid (16) Splatoon Metal Gear Solid EarthBound Metal Gear Solid SotC
\(8\) EarthBound (9) Borderlands 2
\(5\) Shadow of the Colossus (12) Team Fortress 2 Shadow of the Colossus Red Dead Redemption
\(4\) Red Dead Redemption (13) Bayonetta 2
\(3\) Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater (14) Mother 3 Metal Gear Solid 3 BioShock Metal Gear Solid 3 Mass Effect 2
\(6\) BioShock (11) Silent Hill 2
\(7\) StarCraft (10) Destiny StarCraft Mass Effect 2
\(2\) Mass Effect 2 (15) Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward
## See Also - [2015 Bracket](https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/features/bge20_vote) - [Final 2015 Standings & Stats](https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/features/bge20_stats) - Board 8's 2015 Nominations --- ## (1)Chrono Trigger vs (16)Ratchet & Clank: Up Your Arsenal 2015 _source: (1)Chrono Trigger vs (16)Ratchet & Clank: Up Your Arsenal 2015 (revid 81334)_ | | | |-----|-----| ## Results **Round One** Thursday, November 5th, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 1 - **Match \#:** 1 - **Match Date:** Thursday, November 5, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Chrono Trigger - 76.73% 111 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Chrono Trigger - 92.68% This spot is usually reserved for talking about a Nintendo \#1 overall seed dominating some schlub, but this year was a little different thanks to WhiskeyNick. After Draven happened, Nick realized that the rules of these contests had changed and that rallies would be the predominant factor in winning and losing. His favorite game is Chrono Trigger (which is a fine choice, Nick), so he figured why not fight fire with fire? He created a Facebook group for the game, which currently has about 28000 members on it. With their help, Chrono Trigger got the \#1 overall seed and Nick gave a very fair warning that it would be very strong this year. The guru ignored him and favored Final Fantasy X anyway, but we'll get to that in due time. We were immediately shown that Chrono Trigger this contest would be a complete steamroller. Old x-stats are not reliable, but the Oracle picked Chrono Trigger in this match with about 75% or so. Overshooting that by 10% is no joke, and even worse is that it started the poll close to 90% and didn't really fall down that much. This was to be the first example of many that the 90s era games were going to completely embarrass everything else in a fair bracket, and this was also to be the first example of many that Chrono Trigger was not. fucking. around. A lot of FFX supporters tried writing this off as R&C perhaps being mega-fodder, but really the writing was on the wall from day one. Chrono Trigger's downward spiral, at least in terms of game strength, is vastly exaggerated. GameFAQs is basically Chrono Trigger's home base. Oh, and play Ratchet & Clank. Those games are really good and aren't deserving of "hey I can only get 5500 votes" contest infamy. ## Ctes's Analysis I became very happy when I learned that Chrono Trigger was the overall \#1 seed. I know it topped THE LIST last year, but it's still nice to see that carry over to the contests. In general, I think said list matters little to nothing when it comes to contests strength, but when it comes to nominations on the other hand, it matters a ton, so I guess its natural that it was the most nominated game. Allen hinted it when he said it wouldn't be a Zelda or Final Fantasy game. RBY was considered (which looks stupid when we saw its \#8 seed), but it makes sense for it to be a game that isn't part of a series. Other fanbases are likely to split their nominations more, but that's not an issue for Chrono Trigger. When the matches rolled, this obviously weren't the one that initially had the most focus, but goddamn did Chrono Trigger ever impress. After looking a lot worse in 2009 than 2004, a bunch of people expected it to have fallen ever more, but that was not what we saw here. Chrono Trigger had entered some god mode. It was above 87% at the freeze and it was so crazy to see it gain a noticeable amount of percentage next update. Naturally, it didn't keep that up and dropped a little bit before stabilizing, but the performance was really impressive. Its inevitable match with Final Fantasy X was heavily debated pre-contest with FFX actually being the guru favorite, but Chrono Trigger came out of round 1 looking as a clear favorite in everyone's eyes. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6051&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=1) • **No Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (8)Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King vs (9)Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 3 2015 _source: (8)Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King vs (9)Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 3 2015 (revid 81335)_ | | | |-----|-----| ## Results **Round One** Thursday, November 5th, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 1 - **Match \#:** 2 - **Match Date:** Thursday, November 5, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King - 46.00% 13 for - 98 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King - 45.85% For whatever reason, the second match of these contests is completely cursed for Board 8. This year, Dragon Quest 8 is the game that got to bite everyone during the second match, and at this point the right play with these is to just find Board 8's popular opinion on them and just go the opposite way unless it's an ungodly obvious match. Check this list out. Weird stuff in bold. Summer 2002 - Spyro vs Morrigan. Everyone picks Spyro, because people have actually heard of Spyro. Morrigan wins, and everyone credits [the match picture](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/sc2k2/sum02b02.jpg). The Jug Factor is born. Summer 2003 - Pikachu vs Fox. Everyone picked Fox because they had a common opponent (Cloud) the year before. No contest. Spring 2004 - Metroid vs Pac-Man. People picked Metroid because they treated games the same as charcaters. Again, no contest. Summer 2004 - Ganondorf vs Alucard. Debated match for some reason, but by now everyone knew about x-stats and picked Ganondorf. Again, no contest. Of course now that x-stats were a thing, the second match would start screwing with people, though one could consider this a match that a lot of people debated and got wrong. Spring 2005 - Sigma vs Andross. Other than Ridley/Diablo, this was the most heavily debated round 1 match and a LOT of people picked Andross. We know the end result. Sigma destroyed. Summer 2005 - Ness vs CJ, shortly after San Andreas came out. Most people picked CJ, figuring the insane buzz around that game would lead to a very easy win. Ness won with ease, spawning the RacistFAQs fad that lives on to this day (and is unfortunately probably true on some level). Spring 2006 - Suikoden vs Mega Man X in the series contest. No debate because it was obvious MMX would win. Summer 2006 - Ada Wong vs Jade was obvious. Moving on. Summer 2007 - Arthas/Diablo/KOS-MOS/Mega Man. People had no idea what LFF in 4ways was, at least not to this degree, and a lot of people picked Diablo to get second place. The guru pick was Mega Man \> KOS-MOS, but enough people picked Diablo to where this gets "DAMN SECOND MATCH" honors. Summer 2008 - Link/Luke/Shadow/Zidane. Everyone and their mother picked Shadow to get second place. This was before people realized Sonic was an honorary Nintendo franchise on our site, similar to Pac-Man. Zidane cruised to second. Summer 2009 - Mega Man 2/Pac-Man/Pong/Oregon Trail. Mega Man \> Pac-Man was the favorite, but a ton of people got scared into picking Oregon Trail because of all the joke trends in the prior contests. Winter 2010 - Alucard vs Magus. If this were held in 2004 everyone would have picked Magus and some people still did. This was HIGHLY debated for whatever reason, even though Alucard cruised. Game of the Decade - Rock Band vs Deus Ex. Rock Band is the overwhelming favorite, then Deus Ex pulls the upset but "not by enough" in one of Board 8's worst days ever. The board was unreadable. Rivalry Rumble - Who fucking cares? (it was Ike/Black Knight beating Conker/Poo) Summer 2013 - Raiden/Waluigi/Alan Wake. Easy Raiden win, though people feared a joke run by Waluigi. So yeah, long list of second match oddities and this year was no different. I myself picked DQ8 initially, then looked at things and realized Persona 3 had a buzz on this site, while Dragon Quest has never mattered (sorry Chris, it's true). Even looking at past polls, both games have been garbage-level, but Persona always showed something. Other people, including casuals filling out brackets, reached the same conclusion, and picked Persona 3. they figured fodder with a fanbase beats fodder that no one ever talks about. Then the match started. Persona 3 took an early lead, likely from bracket votes, but then it became very close almost immediately. Right when this happened, a lot of people knew what was coming because we've all seen the second match screw us time and time again. When DQ8 took the lead 20 minutes in, there was no illusion about Persona 3 doing anything even though the poll stayed close for awhile. We all knew. In fairness this was in question for a couple hours, but DQ8 slowly gained overnight, then buried the poll once the day vote hit. The best explanation I have, outside of Persona 3 having a very vocal yet very minor minority, is that the title "Best Game Ever" on this contest really meant something to people. Dragon Quest is gaming royalty as a series. Persona is just another run-of-the-mill JRPG series, and sorry Persona fans but you know it's the truth. It's obvious that no one outside of very dedicated JRPG fans know or care what Persona even is. That's why Dragon Quest won. Not that Dragon Quest would end up anything but fodder, as Chrono Trigger would so thoroughly remind everyone in round 2. ## Ctes's Analysis Our first debated match of the contest! Already from day 1 it was clear how happy we should be with having several matches a day for the early rounds. Sure, Chrono Trigger exceeded expectations, but it's not like the match was ever in any doubt of being a blowout, so instead of having to wait 24 hours for something else, we can just focus our eyes on better matches.  Anyway, the second match has a history of screwing board 8 over and this was no exception. Persona 3 was the clear favorite here and we do look really stupid for siding with it so much. It manages to win the board vote, probably partly because of bracket votes, but it was clear it wouldn't last. It took Dragon Quest very few updates to take the lead and it never really looked back. In my Last Man Standing contest, a vast majority of the participants were eliminated right here on the first day because of this match. That's how favored Persona 3 was. People actually felt quite safe about it. I guess people just expected it to be closer to Persona 4 than it is, but nope. Persona 4 is not exactly anything special in these things, but it's in a completely different league. That was the breakthrough game for the series. Ironically, this match lines up perfectly with the GotD x-stats, but I didn't see anyone bring that up until the match was rolling. I guess most users just focused their eyes on matches that would end up being worth more than one point! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6052&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=2) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Batman: Arkham City vs (12)Mega Man X 2015 _source: (5)Batman: Arkham City vs (12)Mega Man X 2015 (revid 81336)_ | | | |-----|-----| ## Results **Round One** Thursday, November 5th, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 1 - **Match \#:** 3 - **Match Date:** Thursday, November 5, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Mega Man X - 53.03% 87 for - 24 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Mega Man X - 50.66% The 12 \> 5 upset lives! We got two of them this contest, one of which on the very first day. Also, can we put to rest this idea that Batman could win a contest if we included licensed characters? I mean I guess a super rally could work, but every time a games contest happens these licensed games never do anything. Cue the latest example. Mega Man X was always going to win this match, that was not in doubt, but when Batman's lone accomplishment here is bleeding a minuscule amount of percentage it might be time to reconsider licensed characters' ability to godmode a contest. I'll believe it when I see it, though I'm sure it won't stop people from picking Batman, Spiderman, Superman and the like. ## Ctes's Analysis This match was also heavily debated pre-contest. There were people feeling completely safe on both sides. Unlike the last one, the cookie cutter bracket and I were correct here. But considering how debated it was, it sure didn't end up being close. That's pretty rarely the case. Mega Man X has contest history and it isn't exactly great. His character had done well, but characters =/= games. His game and series never escaped round 1 even. People expected more of Batman. The games are great and having Batman alone in the title should be enough in some people's eyes, but it wasn't. We have proof right here that having a big name in title means absolutely nothing, but it didn't really become clear until the Mario Maker match.  Batman doesn't end up looking too bad though, it's a low mid-carder, but not exactly fodder. Mega Man X was just a lot stronger than we expected. It looked legit here, but it didn't become clear until next round just how strong it was. It could make quite the run if placed in the last quarter of the bracket. Chrono Trigger was destroying while this match was on, but this is the real first hint we got towards it being the year of SNES. Although we hadn't quite pieced that together yet. What was however clear, was that in terms of old vs. new, old should always be the favorite. That was my own reason for picking MMX too really. Quoting yoblazer from the first episode of The Show: “in a debatable match of new vs. old, always go with old”. Might not have been the exact words, but it's basically what he said, and he was right too. It started here and comes true about every time. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6053&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=3) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (4)Final Fantasy X vs (13)Half-Life 2015 _source: (4)Final Fantasy X vs (13)Half-Life 2015 (revid 81339)_ | | | |-----|-----| ## Results **Round One** Thursday, November 5th, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 1 - **Match \#:** 4 - **Match Date:** Thursday, November 5, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy X - 67.37% 111 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Final Fantasy X - 60.74% This match was never going to be a contest, and some would argue Half-Life deserved better. Personally I think Half-Life is an average game at best and is [ungodly overrated by the PC crowd](http://www.gamefaqs.com/PC/43362-half-life/reviews/147215). It's just not very good, and my mind is never being changed on this. So as a gaming fan level, watching Half-Life get its ass whipped by a much better game was nice. It was never close and the percentages never really moved, so what you're seeing here is really all there was to talk about. The bigger implication here was preparation for the Chrono Trigger match, and the seeds were definitely there right from round 1 that FFX was screwed. Chrono Trigger looked like a worldbeater against Ratchet, while according to the 2009 stats FFX underperformed by 5%. CT/FFX was frankly already decided, though there were some deniers. There was no denial after round 2, though. ## Ctes's Analysis Final Fantasy X would have to put up a very strong expectation exceeding performance to match Chrono Trigger's if it wanted to show us it had a chance in round 3 and it didn't. But not only did it not do that, it actually managed to disappoint. It actually looks a lot worse after we had it confirmed how much Half-Life had fallen. At this point, we might've expected it, but it wasn't clear until Half-Life 2 looked terrible later down the line. Already at this point, some ridiculous and unexpected shenanigans would have to happen for FFX to make the division finale. And to think that just a day earlier, it was the favorite to get there. On a personal basis, this match should sadden me. I absolutely love FFX, it's a fantastic game. I replayed it recently to platinum, although I got busy and didn't really got back. Half-Life can be fun to play, but the second one is vastly superior. Yet I wasn't sad, because it means good things for Chrono Trigger. Though I sat hours before bracket lockout and went back and fourth on their upcomming match, but decided FFX should have it with recently being released on new consoles and damn was that a mistake. But I realized this day I had a win/win situation. Either I got points or I saw my favorite game winning. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6054&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=4) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Super Smash Bros. Melee vs (14)Portal 2015 _source: (3)Super Smash Bros. Melee vs (14)Portal 2015 (revid 84421)_ | | | |-----|-----| ## Results **Round One** Friday, November 6th, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 1 - **Match \#:** 5 - **Match Date:** Friday, November 6, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Smash Bros. Melee - 64.22% 111 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Smash Bros. Melee - 78.49% Portal deserved better :'( Seeing two of my favorites against each other this early is always painful, though it will happen sometimes. The match itself was nothing notable, though Melee's percentage bleed is impressive sometimes. This game is a godslayer during the power hour, then routinely drops. In this match it started at 75%, then dropped a bunch before recovering to nearly 68. This would have been relevant to make note of had the Chrono Trigger/Melee match been normal, but as we all know it would not end up being normal. This match lined up with the 2009 and Game of the Decade stats pretty well, and gave no real indication that Chrono Trigger would have annihilated Melee in a non-rally match. Speaking of rallies, I think it's fair to say Portal would have been in contention to win a contest had it come out and caught the "cake is a lie" craze during the modern era. Us Undertale fans are obviously very happy right now, but jobbing out as a 14 seed might be our future in due time. Rallied entities never last, and it's hard to imagine Portal not qualifying for that category. ## Ctes's Analysis When we saw this match, we thought it was a shame that Portal was pretty much wasted in the bracket. Both games made top 16 in Game of the Decade, but Portal never had a chance here. It could've won several matches if placed differently in the bracket though. That was what we thought at least, but Melee ended up winning this match by much more than expected. While no one thought this was close, Melee was not supposed to score a doubling. People saw no reason for a Melee decline, it was pretty obvious which of the two had changed since last contest. I still believe Portal could've done better if it had better bracket placement, but it's probably less of a waste than we initially thought. The 3 point match of Sonic 2 vs. Portal 2 was looking really good in Sonic's favor after these first two days. Mega Man X scoring 60% on Batman was one thing, as it made the older game the favorite, but Portal disappointing here was what made the Portal 2 supporters worried the most. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6055&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=5) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (6)Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal vs (11)The World Ends with You 2015 _source: (6)Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal vs (11)The World Ends with You 2015 (revid 84422)_ | | | |-----|-----| ## Results **Round One** Friday, November 6th, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 1 - **Match \#:** 6 - **Match Date:** Friday, November 6, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Pokémon Gold/Silver - 73.98% 111 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Pokemon Gold/Silver - 90.07% I played TWEWY not too long ago, and holy christ that game is trash. Like not even forgivable "we tried something new and it didn't work out" trash. Just straight-up, unadulterated fucking garbage. The only saving grace is there not being random battles, and thank god for that since this game has some of the worst music I've ever heard, so the less battle music I have to hear the better. Well, and the boss fights. Those were honestly really neat. The characters suck, The music sucks. The gameplay fucking SUCKS. The gimmick sucks. The plot sucks. The use of two screens sucks. Having to be a liberal trendy and convince this dumbass city to be liberal trendies so they fall into a greater plot of becoming liberal sheep at the hands of a corporate master is a cute referendum on American politics and all (I'm sure Shibuya isn't actually meant to convey this, but it's my PCA and I'm taking certain liberties because TWEWY is trash and if a political referendum is my lone form of entertainment from it than so be it), but I can read current events to know about that sort of thing. Playing a game as awful as TWEWY to do it? Puke. And the final plot twist was ungodly stupid and so easy to see coming. Just a massive vomit job by Square, and an example that they have no idea what they're doing anymore. Just writing all this makes me pissed off about the FF7 remake, because deep down I know it's going to suck. Even calling the enemies in TWEWY reapers is a disgrace. Leave the cool things to Mass Effect. On the other side, we had what I feel is the best Pokemon generation, and I know I'm not alone on that one. RBY is great and nostalgic and got me hyped for more. GSC lived up to that hype and filled the perfect sweet spot for the series. 251 is the perfect number of Pokemon to catch -- a lot, but nothing obnoxious like we have now. On top of that, it offered a lot more balance and fixed a lot of glitches. Psychics were finally killable! I'm hardly some Pokemon expert, but maybe someone like TRE or Chris will see this topic and be able to give a better explanation for why GSC is the best Pokemon game. Regardless, this poll was justice. TWEWY, you can eat your tripling and get the hell out of my contest. And yes for those new to this, I often rant about games themselves in these early blowout matches ## Ctes's Analysis Pokemon GSC had such a wasted spot in the bracket as well. No matter the result here, its match against Melee was not in doubt. I think it'd have to score close to 90% for anyone to consider it a threat to Melee and obviously it didn't. Not all fourpacks can be equally fun I guess. GSC might be a top 20 game on our site, but we got no real means to judge that this contest. What's interesting to note about it is that is had a higher seed than RBY had. This is the fan favorite, even if it's not close to RBY in strength, although we already knew that from 2004 when GSC was the sole Pokemon representative. It has come a long way since then for sure. TWEWY is one of those games that do terrible, but has a small dedicated fanbase that'll keep nominating it each time despite how it'll never come close to winning a match. There are so few games in the bracket that I wouldn't pick against TWEWY. The funny part about that match were when a few people from said small fanbase that apparently didn't expect this result complained on the board and gave Steiner and a few others some easy troll bait. But seriously, when a 6 seed has 90% of the brackets, you know that the other game probably shouldn't keep being in these contests. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6056&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=6) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (7)Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots vs (10)Kingdom Hearts II 2015 _source: (7)Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots vs (10)Kingdom Hearts II 2015 (revid 81348)_ | | | |-----|-----| ## Results **Round One** Friday, November 6th, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 1 - **Match \#:** 7 - **Match Date:** Friday, November 6, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Kingdom Hearts II - 52.06% 89 for - 23 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Kingdom Hearts II - 56.91% I know KH2 was the favorite here, but I did pick MGS4 for a few reasons. Blind fanboyism was the major one, but I also thought MGS5's release would boost the MGS series, plus I couldn't get this poll out of my head. I know games =/= characters and the picture had a lot to do with that match, but it's hard to imagine that one being practically reversed. I also thought this site was kind of over the whole Kingdom Hearts thing, what with Tetsuya Nomura's dumb ass running the series into the ground and us still not having Kingdom Hearts 3 despite having 3843 awful spinoffs. Bear in mind that the Final Fantasy series and Square in general has been trending down in large part due to the Dream Drop 358/244/1 Birth by Chain of Memories Sleeping Distance Final Mix 4.0 Prototype XE Syndrome -- "Kingdom Hearts has sucked since the original game", in other words. As fate would have it, this site may have issues with Kingdom Hearts but this site is also really over Metal Gear Solid. I knew the honeymoon period with Snake in Brawl and MGS4 would pass eventually, but seeing it here live and in living color was really something else. The entire series looked awful in this contest, and it started in this poll. It was never close, and it took everything just to keep KH2 under 60% given how things started. It was the first in a long line of embarrassments for Metal Gear Solid, and honestly the series trending down makes some sense. I love 4, but I can see why people have issues with it. And given what would happen to 5 later on, it's clear that this site blames 4 for the series and doesn't much care about 5. Or anything else released after the PS2 era, really. Old games beat the hell out of new games in this contest, and I'm positive you can call KH2 \> MGS4 an old game \> new game thing. Which kind of sucks, because MGS4 is an amazing video game and the perfect way to end Snake's story. You see him suffer so much, you grow up with him in many ways... then the events of MGS4 start happening and you eventually hit Act 4. We all geeked out like mad, to where this was going 50/50 with Brawl in Game of the Year. How did we get from that to 41% on Kingdom Hearts 2? Addendum: Konami's treatmment of Kojima and turning into a pachinko franchise almost certainly got met with voters turning on the MGS series in this contest. ## Ctes's Analysis While there weren't really any interesting matches today in the sense that they were all decide within a few minutes, this one at least opened up for tons of discussion. I think in 2009, MGS4 would win this match with ease and KHII wasn't weak then. That's only 6 years ago! My god it has dropped a lot. A majority of the gurus and brackets in general went with KHII here, but it was a debatable match, MGS4 was not supposed to do this bad. Even in 2010, losing to SotC didn't look at bad, it was a day match with SotC riding on a bandwagon from having beaten MGS2. Ironically, MGS4 ended up higher in the x-stats than the rest of the MGS games because Melee stood up like a king to Undertale and Chrono Trigger to Melee, while Melee fans didn't rally against KHII unlike the rest. In other words, tons of things going in MSG4's favor after it lost. Really though, people felt certain in KHII's victory. MSG4 might've looked bad here, but for so many people to have expected such a drop from last time is quite saying. I wonder what exactly caused it, I guess a minor part of it is old vs. new. Yes, there're only three years between them, but they're from different generations, but I think it's just people view on MGS4 having changed it general, while KHII remains the same. Back when it came out, the hype was huge, completely insane. Snake's appearance in Brawl likely helped the support too. Now, the hype is gone. MGS4 has been viewed at the weak link of four MGS games. There's a fifth now yes, I don't know where that places yet, I also haven't played it. The hype from the fifth game wasn't enough to make up for that it seems. It's a shame too, I really like MGS4! Exiting the first round after losing in the semi-final last contest looks really bad on paper, but you gotta remember that KHII is no pushover in these things. MGS4 could've won a couple of matches had it switched placement with one of the other's in the bracket. It has fallen quite a bit, but it still has some strength in these things. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6057&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=7) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (2)The Last of Us vs (15)Halo 3 2015 _source: (2)The Last of Us vs (15)Halo 3 2015 (revid 81351)_ | | | |-----|-----| ## Results **Round One** Friday, November 6th, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 1 - **Match \#:** 8 - **Match Date:** Friday, November 6, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** The Last of Us - 56.74% 108 for - 4 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** The Last of Us - 74.96% There isn't a whole lot to say about this match outside of LOL SUPER MARIO SUNSHINE Gauging brand new games or contest entrants is hard to do, though we all knew this match wouldn't be much. This match was a blowout to start, and a doubling to finish. Easy peasy. I can't comment on Last of Us, outside of KP telling me I'd love it and that I need to get around to playing it one of these days. Given my massive backlog, that might even happen one of these years! What I will do instead is wax poetic about Halo being garbage on this site, and I enjoy that casual stuff isn't popular here. If we're being honest with each other, none of us hardcore gamers really feel like casual gamers are "real gamers" for whatever reason. At a deep level, I'm positive a lot of gamers have been bullied and casual stuff like Halo and Grand Theft Auto are reminders of those people. It's a deep conversation to have, but it's probably very close to the truth of why casual stuff is not popular on this site and gets anti-voted to death. GameFAQs is basically a 90s fan site. Gaming was not exactly a socially acceptable hobby in the 90s. I'm sure other reasons exist for why casual stuff doesn't do well here, but "gamers like to anti-vote anything frat boys like" is as good a reason as I can think of. I'm all ears though if anyone can think of anything better (outside most casual games being absolute garbage, which is just a given at this point). Anyway, outside of one Master Chief run that happened on the back of the fourway format and Halo 3 hype, the self destruction of Halo has been long, topped only by the GTA series, hilarious to watch, and it all began when something named Felix got 47% on Master Chief in 2003. Since then, we've seen some absolute gems from the Halo series: -Halo's legendary 1 seed choke job against Starcraft -Chief's legendary choke job against Frog -Halo 3 getting last place in round 2 in 2009, in a match that was pretty winnable for it -Chief's choke job against Sub-Zero one year after the Donkey Kong comeback -Chief losing to Yuna in 2013 after beating the pants off of her in 2007 And, of course, the most hilarious Master Chief match we'll ever get. There have been bright spots here and there, don't get me wrong, but the fact that people entertained Minecraft beating Halo this year really says a lot. Halo is dead on this site, outside of the original having marginal respect. Halo 3, like we saw in this match, is just a bottom-feeder. ## Ctes's Analysis I know there was a few people believing Halo 3 could pull this off, but I don't the match ever should've been in doubt. Sure, Halo 3 beat Super Mario Sunshine last time, that's not exactly a big accomplishment, people really dislike that game, sadly. I personally find it to be really great! Anyway, Halo has a bad history on this side. Master Chief made a dream run in 2007, but that's about it for good things the series has done here. The original Halo ended up not looking terrible in 2010, but it was not particularly great either. On the other hand, The Last of Us has been extremely well regarded. Very impressive for a new IP too. We expected it to be among the strongest games made in this decade, rivaled only by Skyrim and ME2. And boy were we right! The Last of Us is not really near elite, but man did it look great today. We later learned that Halo had dropped a whole lot more than expected, but today, TLoU just looked incredible, which is ironic considering this board has a habit of bashing the losing game in a surprising result rather than praising the winning one. I guess this does not happen as often when the winning game is still the same. Doubling a Halo game looked great. A few people were thinking its match with KHII could go both ways now, though I personally never believed it stood a chance there. Maybe if its second round match was somewhat debatable things would look interesting now, but it wasn't. Then we had Menji, who lead the guru for the first couple of days and had a perfect bracket the longest, claiming that TLoU had a shot at Melee after this. Shows how much the board can overreact to things. It's also just really nice to see a new game impress this much. It's a rare sight! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6058&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=8) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Final Fantasy VI vs (16)Assassin's Creed II 2015 _source: (1)Final Fantasy VI vs (16)Assassin's Creed II 2015 (revid 80308)_ ## Results **Round One** Saturday, November 7, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 2 - **Match \#:** 9 - **Match Date:** Saturday, November 7, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy VI - 69.40% 109 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Final Fantasy VI - 80.86% Though Chrono Trigger went beastmode in the first match, this was the match where people realized that 90s era Square (and 90s games in general) were just on a whole other level in this contest. Final Fantasy 6 getting a 1 seed is impressive enough, but 77% on Assassin's Creed 2 is no joke. Even more impressive is that the percentages didn't move at all during the entire match, even though FF6 is known for having an absolute garbage-level day vote. It was one of many examples this contest of old games just beating the hell out of new games all contest long (people will cite Undertale, but that game plays like a 90's era RPG and might as well be one). It was also bad news for people like me who picked against Square in every debatable match. It did not take long to realize that Wind Waker was not beating FF6 in a poll. (3)The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker vs (6)Assassin's Creed II 2010 "Oops" Yes I know the Assassin's Creed series has fallen off a cliff due to too many releases, but FF6 getting 77% on AC2 while Wind Waker only managed 61% is just bad news. That entire debate was over in all of 5 minutes. FF6 was for real this year. ## Ctes's Analysis I think it was the smallest amount of people that actually thought FFVI stood a chance at winning the division at any point, but man did it come off looking good here. It sure looked like the favorite against Wind Waker at least, more than it already was. It more than tripled the strongest entry from the Assassin's Creed series, which looks really good when you look at previous contests. Assassin's Creed was never very good in these things, but it had strength. Altair and Ezio did pretty good all and most notably, there's this: This is the game FFVI would be facing in a slightly debated match scoring only 60% on the game that's getting destroyed here. This is the year of SNES, which became more clear again this match, but it still wasn't enough for us to conclude that SNES games in general received a boost. We also saw an apparent FFVI boost in 2013. But even so, it shouldn't win by this much. Obviously ACII had fallen too… a lot actually. One thing is that it's a recent game, which is apparently bad this year, but the series isn't looked brightly on here in general and I think I know why. It spawns new games constantly and it's getting unoriginal and annoying. I know fans of the games keep enjoying the games and sure, they might not get worse, by how much new do they bring to the series? I haven't played an Assassin's Creed game since Revelations, I'll admit, but that's the impression I get. They come out way too fast, there's constantly a new game out. I have a friend that plays these games and enjoy them as a casual gamer, she hadn't realized one of the games take place in China. Then you know there are too many in a too short amount of time. I think Mario with all his spin-offs is challenged by the amount of titles here. Good grief, I might play another one again some day, but I have no chance of catching up on games if I wanna play a varied set of games and keep my social life intact. This might just very well be the last we'll see of Assassin's Creed in these contests too. Getting a single game in a \#16 seed isn't exactly impressive and it's not something you'd want to bring back after this. It's a shame though, the series might've become what it has, but ACII was legitimately a good game. Very enjoyable in fact. Too bad it came to this. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6059&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=9) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (8)Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door vs (9)Tales of Symphonia 2015 _source: (8)Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door vs (9)Tales of Symphonia 2015 (revid 80309)_ ## Results **Round One** Saturday, November 7, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 2 - **Match \#:** 10 - **Match Date:** Saturday, November 7, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door - 53.89% 88 for - 21 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door - 53.36% This was our first close match this contest, though it was hardly some barn-burner and was honestly decided very early. This contest was pretty lacking in photo finishes, but really you can't expect insanely close finishes when tens of thousands of votes are out there. We were just spoiled back in the day. Anyway, this was the part of the match where Tales of Symphonia got to do its seasonal choke job, and for whatever reason people thought Tales could win this match. Not only was it against FREAKING Mario, not only was it not DAT TOP OPTION in a debated closely-seeded match, not only has Tales proven time and again it doesn't win anything, but it was a JRPG against another JRPG on the exact same system. Tales was fighting very uphill before this match began, and honestly it making this a match at all was an accomplishment. The prediction percentage lined up with bracket voting likely giving Paper Mario its early lead in the match, and 30 minutes in it had a lead of 200 with the percentages hovering around 55-45. From there Tales treated us to one of those matches where the numbers looked much closer than the actual match suggested. Tales bled percentage and Tales made some minor cuts here and there, even slowly bleeding 100 votes off the lead overnight, but when the morning vote favored Mario, that was that. Match over. Not that we would have to wait long for our first "HOLY SHIT" match of this contest, which of course involved Mario yet again because that's what he does. The weird thing about this match is I honestly do feel like Tales wins if the seedings were reversed, but it's Tales of Symphonia's destiny to job out in these things. It's like watching Clockwork in competitive MvC2. He's fun to watch, but you know he's going to lose. ## Ctes's Analysis This match was closest of the contest so far, but it was never really that interesting. TTYD took the lead from the get go and never truly looked back. ToS got a bunch of cuts throughout the match but TTYD almost always got it back within the next few updates. The exception was the deadzone where ToS actually cut off a decent amount of TTYD's lead, but when the morning vote came, that was all lost again. Considering we said we trends were gone, it's weird how they were actually here for this match. ToS stalled very well during different parts of the day, but except for a brief moment during the deadzone, it never really god to make its move. In the big picture, the match was stable the whole way through. If you were a major ToS supporter, I could imagine you'd be hooked on this match especially during the deadzone when a comeback didn't look entirely impossible, but I can't imagine anyone following it for that long. As a major TTYD supporter, I looked at the match a little bit and felt completely safe in TTYD's victory. One might argue that brackets gave TTYD the edge, but it only had a little bit more than half of them, I doubt it really mattered. Top option? Not really an issue this contest considering the format put the games next to each other instead. TTYD was simply just slightly stronger. Nothing more to say about it than that. TTYD is one of the four contenders for my absolute favorite game, I find it to be perfection, so naturally I really enjoyed this match. Of the four, TTYD is easily the least popular one, though it's mostly because the others, FFVII, CT and SMW, are among the most popular games out there. When Allen indirectly hinted that it made the contest by stating that he didn't take “the Paper series” into consideration when claiming Final Fantasy had the most entrants, I was already happy enough. Seeing it get a winnable match was really great, even if I knew it'd be blown out next round. I wish the original Paper Mario had got a different bracket placement, which I'll get back to when that match comes, but I'm glad to see TTYD outlast its predecessor this time. It got a much higher seed this time too proving its the favorite! Glad to see we've agreed on that. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6060&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=10) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic vs (12)Xenogears 2015 _source: (5)Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic vs (12)Xenogears 2015 (revid 80318)_ ## Results **Round One** Saturday, November 7, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 2 - **Match \#:** 11 - **Match Date:** Saturday, November 7, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic - 56.70% 102 for - 7 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic - 71.86% There was a decent denate pre-contest about this match, and for good reason. KOTOR's strength is nothing insane, but it is respectable. 40% on Vice City in 2004 is alright, because that's back when GameFAQs didn't give a toss about western RPGs. The 2009 round 1 loss where it got third place was just random bad luck. Any of those four games could have gotten anything between 1st and 4th place, and it was one of the closest things we'll ever see to 25/25/25/25 in a fourway poll. Then in 2010, it got to round 3 and put up 47% on Final Fantasy 9. Again nothing nuts, but respectable. But Xenogears had never been in a fair poll. The GSC match in 2004 was back during the Pokemon anti-vote days and had to be run twice because of a glitch on day 1 where only registered users could vote (side note, the vote totals that way were trash and the people who want a registered-only contest to combat rallies are out of their minds, you would literally see every poll get like 10k votes). In round 2, it faced Final Fantasy 7, aka the literal worst opponent Xenogears could ever have. In 2009, it got the lite version and had Final Fantasy 8 in round 1. The case could be made for Xenogears having hidden strength all these years, and I don't think those people were wrong even though Xenogears lost. KOTOR took an early lead, but then bled some percentage all day as Xenogears made various small cuts and stalls. The percentage bleed wasn't anything nuts, but 3% in the 50s is a lot different than bleeding only 3% when the higher game is in the 80s or 90s. It tells me that if the seedings were reversed here, Xenogears might have won. Maybe one day, it'll actually get to win a fair match! We all know the GSC 2004 nonsense doesn't really count. ## Ctes's Analysis There were some Xenogears defenders around here, but overall KOTOR was the major favorite going into this match, both for gurus and casuals alike. My Last Man Standing contest can't by used to judge too much because two thirds of the contestants eliminated themselves on Persona 3, but because I put up four days at the time, they all picked in this, and it was like 80% choosing KOTOR. A few people picked in the previous match, but KOTOR was too big a favorite. I'm honestly surprised Xenogears wasn't supported a little bit more, but I guess KOTOR having the much higher seed and having Star Wars in the title helps out a bit. I think if bracket votes were removed, we'd have quite a match here actually! But we didn't really have a match. A bunch of people not realizing that bleeding percentage doesn't mean anything as long as the lead increases thought we had one, but it was never really interesting to look at. We had at this point already learned that trends were basically non-existing. The only match that even had a lead change after the freeze was DQVIII/Persona 3 and we're talking a 28 vote lead being flipped there. Xenogears was out of this match from the start. The interesting thing about this match is how it goes against the rule system for picking winners that was true for almost all non-Undertale matches this contests. Parts of this system was always picking Nintendo and Square titles above non Nintendo and Square titles and always picking JRPG games above non JRPG games. KOTOR might be a RPG, but it's still Western. Most importantly, always go with the older game. Using this logic to pick your bracket, you'd probably be on the leaderboard for most of the contest, we just hadn't realized before it began, but this match defies all those things completely. To think that a Bioware WRPG for the original Xbox could beat a Sqaure JRPG for the original Playstation. It didn't look that weird at the time, because we had yet to notice this pattern, but after the contest it looks really weird. It's not like Xenogears is terrible and KOTOR is near elite either. I mean in cases like Skyrim vs. Phoenix Wright, no one would apply this rule system, because Skyrim is the strongest new title and one of the strongest non Nintendo and Square titles, but if this match were to happen tomorrow here after our contest ended, I think a much higher percentage would've picked Xenogears after all we've seen. At least not as many people should feel safe about it. But KOTOR is simply one of the few WRPG games with contest strength. They're not common, but we have a good bunch of them out there. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6061&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=11) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (4)The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker vs (13)Pokémon X/Y 2015 _source: (4)The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker vs (13)Pokémon X/Y 2015 (revid 84423)_ ## Results **Round One** Saturday, November 7, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 2 - **Match \#:** 12 - **Match Date:** Saturday, November 7, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: The Wind Waker - 61.51% 108 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zelda: The Wind Waker - 77.46% A few writeups ago I lauded GSC as being the perfect Pokemon game. XY is basically in "get the fuck out of my contest" territory on the level of TWEWY or Shadow of the Colossus or World of Warcraft or Wind Waker (no, the irony is not lost on me), among others. 700+ Pokemon and ridiculous mega evolution fanservice, not to mention all the other nonsense? XY can fuck off. Seriously, go to [this link](http://www.pokemonxy.com/en-us/root/) and hover over What's New. It's a gimmick-filled disgrace, and it's a direct result of the other game in this contest ruining everything Nintendo once stood for. The best is when you get Pokemon fans that act like people aren't allowed to like the first two generations, which is just thoroughly ridiculous and it's that mentality that directly caused Undertale to beat RBY's ass. But we'll get to that in due time and testify like Devon Dudley. On the winning end you had Wind Waker, which is the game that ruined Nintendo and they've yet to recover. Before that game, they had real passion with video games and design. Then they made this piece of trash, saw that people ate it up and haven't really bothered trying since. Why would they? Nintendo, much like every other company in the corporate world, found their quantity-for-a-quick-dollar \> quality moment and went off to the races. Then the DS happened, people ate THAT garbage up and we've been treated to Nintendo force-feeding us garbage-level games with force-fed gimmicks for more than a decade. Now we have Mario games ruined by forced motion controls, Samus being a mother with PTSD, and thousands upon thousands of shovelware titles that all suck. All because Wind Waker taught Nintendo that people will buy anything if you put the right label on it. And don't think I'm in any way exaggerating about these fans. When did the TRUE whining about Undertale begin? Oh yeah, when it beat Mario World, a sacred Nintendo title. I'm no-selling everything about this entire match, and Final Fantasy 6 would eventually give us one of the biggest pieces of justice in this entire contest. Everything about post-Nintendo Wind Waker could disappear and gaming would be so much better off for it. ## Ctes's Analysis While we were seeing FFVI destroying, we would need to see Wind Waker put up quite the impressive performance to even consider that upset a possibility at this point. But it's a little bit difficult to judge here. If you assume there's SFF in this match, Wind Waker stands no chance in round 3, but if you assume XY shares what the series has showed in the past, that Pokemon games are pretty much immune to SFF, then this is not really that bad. I don't see why XY should be any different than the other games, so I'm gonna call Wind Waker's performance pretty great here. Not nearly enough to be the favorite, but also not enough for me to consider FFVI\>Wind Waker a lock yet. It's gap in strength between the first two generations and the rest is crazy though. It's pretty amazing that a later generation even made it in at this to be honest. We had several main line games released since last time, they probably split nominations a lot more than the first four generations did in the past. In 2009, three out of four generations made it while in 2010, the reduced field allowed all three eligible entrants in with DPP somehow even achieving a better seed than GSC, something that doesn't make sense to me to this day. This time it was three out of seven games, as BW2 would count as a different entry than BW and XY got a low seed. It made it in because its the most recent entry (remakes don't count) and because it got some casual appeal the last few entries lacked. As a \#13 seed, Wind Waker was one of the worse \#4 seeds it could've drawn, but I don't think it matters much which one you put it against, it'd still come out as as the loser be it Uncharted 2 or Red Dead Redemption even. World of Warcraft would've been slightly interesting perhaps, but with pure GameFAQs strength, I don't even think it escapes that, at least not if we keep assuming no SFF in this match. The thing about XY though is that it has some solid rally potential. Whatever potential it might've had to get a rally going was ruined the entrant it was put against a Zelda entry. But imagine XY being in a debatable match or being lucky enough to be close to Undertale. It would've destroyed for a while. We didn't know most of this at the time, but Pokemon is huge on sites like tumblr and if anyone tried to rally the actual Pokemon fanbase, it would've probably worked with XY unlike RBY, which we'll get back to a lot later in this PCA. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad this was avoided, but I think we dodged a bullet here without realizing, though it might've been a bigger bullet had the contest been closer to the release of XY. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6062&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=12) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Super Smash Bros. for Wii U vs (14)Planescape: Torment 2015 _source: (3)Super Smash Bros. for Wii U vs (14)Planescape: Torment 2015 (revid 84424)_ ## Results **Round One** Sunday, November 8, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 2 - **Match \#:** 13 - **Match Date:** Sunday, November 8, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Smash Bros. Wii U - 80.62% 108 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Smash Bros. Wii U - 88.48% I actually own Torment, but can't get it to work on my computer because the game is so old. I really need to figure out how to play it one day, because it comes up in every "best game ever" conversation and I'm still unspoiled. Unfortunately it's an obscure PC game on GameFAQs, so it being fodder is kind of a given. Smash 4 started at 80%, dropped a little in percentage, then recovered later to almost preserve a quadrupling. It's nice to see that Smash 4 was able to be a popular game and shake the stigma of Brawl away. In most other series, a bad entrant can completely ruin things and just flush future sales down the toilet. The Smash series was thankfully able to recover from Brawl, release the Melee sequel we all wanted in the first place, and go back to being the most fun multiplayer game out there. Smash 4 is absolutely amazing on every front, and is worth a Wii U purchase by itself. It has EVERYTHING I was asking for in a Melee sequel (high-level play that's based on skill instead of exploiting a glitch, balance patches, good DLC, a good roster, a seamless transition to HD, etc etc etc), and every time more news comes out about it I get happier. I suppose this is the match where I should talk about pjbasis's legendary topic, since this match was boring. Every gamer has a "my uncle works for Nintendo" story that ends up fake. Well pjbasis decides to make a topic about his uncle from Nintendo to spoil.... Cloud being in Smash Bros. No one believed him for obvious reasons, and then somehow it turns out to be... true? What?! And yet there is Cloud, right there on my TV in Smash Brothers. It's definitely a surreal experience. ## Ctes's Analysis I know that this is probably the perfect matchup in that favor, but for a Wii U game to score nearly 80% is really something. Look at all the other Wii U games in the bracket. Mario Kart 8, Super Mario Maker, Splatoon and Bayonetta 2 all had close to no strength. It's was a bit hard to get a good read on Smash 4 from this match only, but it has some strength at least. You don't score this high on anything without it. But as mentioned, Planescape is probably the best opponent to put that on. Getting Planescape into the bracket was hopefully victory enough, because it never stood a chance and never will. Despite being from a solid era, being a PC game is just a major hindrance in these things We have a good bunch of games with contest potential missing the bracket and then we have games like Planescape incapable of making an interesting match. Before you fans of the game jump at me, I know that it's a pretty big PC game and that by name alone it might deserve a spot, but if you look at it from a contest stat perspective, it's a waste really. I do know that seeing a favorite game just make the bracket feels great, so let's just celebrate that it happened, one appearance never hurts. I'll have you know that unless you are a PC gamer, there's a pretty good chance you have no idea what this game is. That along with bracket votes likely made Smash 4 look better, I mean, that's a game every single person on a gaming site recognizes. Although I wouldn't be surprised if a thing such as Wii U anti-votes evened that out a little bit, but not completely of course. Depite being a Wii U game, Smash 4 is really greatly received though. Melee and Brawl fans all think this is the sequel the series needed. It beings the best of both games. It comes with a fantastic set of characters even a solid handful from other companies, which they even try to balance occasionally after the game's release. It's a little lacking in singleplayer, but it's pretty much the perfect multiplayer game, be it competitively or just for fun. The daily updates couldn't reach the dojo levels of pre-release hype, but damn the hype for this game was great too. Sakurai does a fantastic job with everything. The game is filled with fanservice from all series down to detail. Small things such as Lucina's eyes have been done with perfection. The movesets of characters like Ryu and Cloud, the latter who was not yet revealed by the time of this match, were filled with references, there are no words. In terms of contest strength, I fully believe that if new games hadn't gotten awful in general here and the Wii U had been better received, we'd be looking at one of the strongest games on our site. If could take the contests by storm, this game at a better time and place could've done even better. I have a lot to say about Smash 4 regarding its actual contest strength, but because we learned nothing from this match, I'll save it for next time. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6063&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=13) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (6)Super Mario Galaxy 2 vs (11)Mass Effect 2015 _source: (6)Super Mario Galaxy 2 vs (11)Mass Effect 2015 (revid 88458)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Sunday**, November 8, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 2 - **Match \#:** 14 - **Match Date:** Sunday, November 8, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Mass Effect - 43.93% 17 for - 90 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Mass Effect - 51.44% Though Paper Mario TTYD/Symphonia was our first close match, this was our true first close match. You know how every contest has a few matches where the casuals just embarrass us here on Board 8? This was one of those matches. 80% of gurus had Galaxy 2 winning without much thought, and most Oracle folks picked Galaxy 2 in the 55-60% range. The idea, outside of IT'S FREAKING MARIO, is that Mass Effect 1 has never had much strength on this site. On top of that, people have learned time and time again to ignore our Game of the Year polls when evaluating contest strength, so people just ignored Mass Effect 2 embarrassing Galaxy 2 in the GOTY poll in 2010. First off, Mass Effect 1 does have strength. That one match in 2009 was clearly either SFF, or something weird happened. Mass Effect, Left 4 Dead, Fallout 3, and Halo 3 probably have fanbases that hilariously overlap. Someone had to get the short end of the stick there. For two, Mass Effect winning two matches in Game of the Decade before getting 46% on Portal is no joke. Galaxy had strength that contest as well, but a lot of people just pick the Nintendo option in any debatable match and move on. Usually they're right, but this was a case where they weren't right. I'm sure somewhere here I should blame Mass Effect 3's ending for ME1 being underrated here, but I'm saving that rant for the Undertale match. Galaxy 2 took the early lead thanks to the Board 8 vote and Nintendo Power Hour, but then Mass Effect got a cut very early in the match. Galaxy 2's lead would peak at 265 about an hour in, but then the power hour ended and Mass Effect began the slow (very slow) overnight bleed. It can't really be overstated how slow this was, especially given the low vote totals. These two games were basically deadlocked with Mass Effect getting very slow leeway overnight, but people had to treat Galaxy 2 winning an update 72-62 overnight as OH MAN GALAXY IS PUSHING AHEAD. No, that's just AntiTrendsFAQs in action. This match, among many others, showed this contest that trends mean as little now as they ever have, thanks to things like social media and smart phones not forcing people to wait until morning votes and after school votes to get their options in. Point being, Galaxy 2's 265 vote lead an hour in didn't get knocked below 100 until 5:30 in the morning. Mass Effect kept bleeding away, but people just assumed the traditional Nintendo morning and day vote would save the match for Mario. But before the day vote showed up, we had a dead zone to get through. During that dead zone, Mass Effect got this thing tied up. Then the morning vote seemingly favored Mario, as he pushed back to a 50 vote lead very quickly (I'd like to take this time to once again point out that rallying happens in every single match and the people who whine about rallying are ridiculous, it's no accident when a comeback happens and then just stalls the second a tie happens). People assumed the match was over in Mario's favor here too, because obviously the morning vote would just favor Mario, right? Nope. This match stayed tied all morning long, with Mario trying and trying and trying to pull away and get a lead, but every time he managed even a 10 or 20 vote lead, Shepard was there with a pistol and full points in Marksman to blast that shit away immediately -- the easiest way to cheese through the original game, for sure!! It continued like this all the way to lunch time and even a little bit beyond, and a lot of us hoped it would stay like this all day so we could set a new "closest 24 hour match" record. Unfortunately, Shepard decided to stop dicking around, busted out a shotgun and started going full Carnage on the poll -- that is, the battered remains of our once-mighty ASV showed up, and it favored Mass Effect by quite a lot. What was a deadlocked match turned into Mass Effect pulling in 55-60% updates for the rest of the match, which turned things from a tie into a comfortable 625 vote win. This would end up only being a 1 point match, but contests aren't really contests without F5 spam. It was a great win for Mass Effect, and was a win for the good guys. Galaxy 2 is forced motion control garbage, Yoshi's worst-ever appearance in a mainline Mario game, and one of the biggest offenders of "obvious cash grab" in Nintendo's history. Yahtzee did a very accurate review of the game that I suggest people check out. Nintendo isn't even trying to hide it anymore with how dumb they think their fans are. But hey, you all bought and defended Wind Waker. You deserve what Nintendo has turned into. Every time the Wii U gets embarrassed, a kitten gets a comfortable rest, and a game as amazing as Mass Effect doing the honors makes it all the better. Mass Effect in general was in the middle of a lot of interesting things this contest, but before rallies got involved, there was Mass Effect telling the Wii U to fuck off. Justice. ## Ctes's Analysis This might not be the first guru upset, but it was the first real match of the contest! It was still super exciting after about 13-14 hours into the match. At this point, it became clear Mass Effect would take it, but Galaxy 2 would still make some significant cuts for a while to keep the tension. For the last 8 hours, the match was over despite Galaxy still making attempts to get back in the match. 80% of the gurus had Galaxy 2 winning today, a surprisingly high amount of you ask me, because even as someone who picked Galaxy 2 to win it, I never felt it was safe. I know others could feel the same way, but I also think there was some bandwagon going with some of the picks here, similar to DQVIII/P3. Once people see transience, Leon, KP, Ulti and such agree on a winner for a debatable match in their Pre-Contest analysis, said match apparently stops being debatable. Still doesn't explain completely here as Leon got this match right. In any case, with massive guru support and being well received Nintendo game, Galaxy 2 dominated the power hour, especially the early vote. In 15 minutes, Galaxy 2 almost had a lead of 200. Looking at the other matches that have little to no trends, you'd think the match was already over there. After that Galaxy 2 slowed down a bit. Mass Effect won a few updates every now and then, but Galaxy 2 was increasing its lead until exactly when the power hour ended, totally verifying the power hour name. Then it stood still for 10 minutes before Mass Effect made a match of it. During the next hour Mass Effect removed 90 votes of the lead and looked to be the favorite. Then somehow once again at the hour change, the game changes and Galaxy increases its lead by 30 votes again over the next hour, not enough to recover, but certainly better than the second hour. We were entering the deadzone, which everyone knows doesn't favor Mario. But seeing as the trends have been reduced to almost being purely geographical by now, Galaxy 2 was the favorite. It was expecting to run away with it when America woke up again. Following the first three hours, Mass Effect took half an hour to cut 70 votes of the lead again, reducing it to roughly 130. The match was pretty even about an hour before it began to slightly favor Mass Effect as the deepest time of the deadzone began. Galaxy 2 did a pretty good stalling job with some good increases at times, but Mass Effect ultimately had the bigger cuts. Slow but steady and with bumps on the road Mass Effect shred the lead Galaxy 2 took no time to build. Then at the 7:45 update, Mass Effect took the lead by 2 votes. This was followed by a tie the next update. Ties are cool as they're a rare sight, but it was expecting Mass Effect would build a lead briefly after this. However, Mario isn't exactly known for just rolling over to die when he's behind. After the tie Galaxy build a small lead again. It held it for about an hour before the next lead chance, this time a four vote lead. The very next update, the lead changed back to Galaxy 2, but then back to Mass Effect the next update again, which held it for two update before yet another tie. Galaxy 2 then had the lead for updates until Mass Effect took it back. This was an intense match at this point. We didn't know what to expect, but people were probably right about the morning vote favoring Galaxy 2 slightly, as it was a lot more even now. This is probably the final point of the match where trends makes sense. Mass Effect held its lead for a good while before Galaxy 2 made an insane cut to achieve the lead again. The lead changes the next three updates again and went back to Mass Effect, who held it for a few updates before another three lead changes right after each other put the ball back in Galaxy 2's court. It stayed there for a while before Mass Effect for just one update took the lead and then Galaxy 2 held it for a while again. Mass Effect took it again followed by a major gain, which Galaxy 2 erased in one update as it took the lead back for what would be its final time. Mass Effect took it back and build a 50 vote lead somewhat fast. Over the next hour Galaxy 2 made some solid attempts to take it, but it became clear Mass Effect would stop looking back. The following hour was probably when everyone called the match over. From there, Mass Effect would increase its lead slowly until Europe went to sleep and the lead simply stayed the same for the remaining of the match ending with a 625 vote lead. For a match to swing over 800 votes in 2015 without real outside interference was truly spectacular! Apparently, over half the brackets had Mass Effect winning despite being the lower seed so the casuals get a laugh at us I guess. Has Galaxy 2 been as favored in general as it was on hour board, it would've surely won. The first Galaxy would probably win this match with little trouble based on GotD, so there is a strength gap between them. It makes a lot of sense, the first one introduced a whole new concept for the 3D Mario games that the second one just followed up on. Furthermore, the first one was from when the Wii was huge while the second one came out when the popularity of the Wii was starting to decline. It's a shame though, because Galaxy 2 is definitely the better game when it comes to pure gameplay and I think most people agree on this. It felt like an upgrade to the first game. The levels were much more creative and the endgame was actually challenging. I'm sure no one beat the final level easily. It's personally my favorite 3D platformer and likely ranks in the top 10 of my favorite games overall so seeing it lose was a shame even though I also do like Mass Effect. This match was fantastic, but unfortunately it began the trend of calling Mario a turd this contest, which outside of one game that also has other things to explain its flop, isn't really true. Spoilers: that game is Super Mario Maker. It's like people forgot Mass Effect looked pretty great during GotD. It got about 45% on Portal, which got around 45% on RE4 and those games were legit that year. I'm not sure if people expected ME3 to have weakened the series, but I don't think that's how it works. Of course people didn't know this yet, but ME ends up looking really good, so Galaxy 2 is excused. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6064&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=14) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (7)Minecraft vs (10)Halo: Combat Evolved 2015 _source: (7)Minecraft vs (10)Halo: Combat Evolved 2015 (revid 84284)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Sunday**, November 8, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 2 - **Match \#:** 15 - **Match Date:** Sunday, November 8, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Halo: Combat Evolved - 57.02% 88 for - 20 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Halo: Combat Evolved - 38.88% 205 people picked Minecraft to win this entire contest. 203 people picked Mario 3. 124 picked Undertale. 4145 picked Ocarina. There are a smart group of bracketmakers who know that contests are very likely to be decided by massive outside rallies, and plan accordingly. There are two main reasons for this, one being L-Block breaking the mold and the other being people are beyond done with Link or Zelda winning every year. All contest winners: Summer 2002 - Link Summer 2003 - Cloud Spring 2004 - Final Fantasy 7 Summer 2004 - Link Spring 2005 - Sephiroth Summer 2005 - Link Spring 2006 - The Legend of Zelda Summer 2006 - Link Summer 2007 - L-Block Summer 2008 - Link Summer 2009 - Ocarina of Time Summer 2010 - Link Game of the Decade - Majora's Mask Rivalry Rumble - Link/Ganon Winter 2013 - Draven Winter 2015 - Undertale Even Majora's Mask, which definitely qualifies as a shocking bracket winner, is a Zelda game. So when people looked at this bracket and tried to figure out who could get a joke rally for the title, Minecraft was one of the games highlighted. There are a lot of things that go into a rally. You need timing, luck, a true internet buzz, a rabid fanbase, a justifiable cause, more luck, and most importantly you need the right contest path. L-Block did what it did because it had the perfect setup to sneak by over and over until it grew out of control. Majora's Mask did the same thing until it eventually caught lightning in a bottle, caught a massive rally against FFX, then beat Brawl on the back of anti-votes. Draven caught a rally in round 1, smashed the fuck out of Capcom, and the rest was history. We'll get to Undertale later. Minecraft was seen as potentially having that path. Halo is an anti-vote magnet, and then it would have another anti-vote magnet in Final Fantasy 7 in round 2. From there, who knows? Unfortunately, it wouldn't quite work out that way. Halo definitely ate some anti-votes early, but it was able to build a comfortable lead and ride a very comfortable, very steady 56-44 percentage all day long. People were scared to death that Minecraft would beat Halo here and then laugh at our contest; they had the right idea, but were scared of the wrong game doing it. It was the 124 Undertale fans that were the real MVPs. ## Ctes's Analysis Halo has definitely fallen a lot since last contest, but we weren't truly aware of that yet I suppose. The original Halo was somehow lucky enough to face one of the few games it could beat and it didn't look impressive doing it. Minecraft was one the games people feared could get a serious rally going pre-contest. It's funny how it works that way with games ending with “craft”. It certainly had a good round 1 opponent to start off with though its second round opinion would really require something else of it. And yet nothing happened at all. The match was very boring, but I guess most regulars would rather have that than the rally it would take to make it interesting. Turns out Minecraft was not the game we should fear rallies from. It makes sense to. This game got a huge amount of its popularity from kids. Very small kids. Take this from somebody who has worked in Toys R Us before. They're not going to rally for it. Besides, if trends existed, Halo might just be the perfect counter to the ASV Minecraft would have. Had Minecraft won this match it would almost certainly perform better on FFVII than Halo did though, but it was never going to happen. Hopefully Minecraft doesn't make the bracket again. I know I talk about this too much, but with this match it should be fair. Super Mario Bros should've made the bracket and based on bracket placement there's nothing I'd rather replace than Minecraft so it can double Halo. Minecraft probably will continue getting into these things though. Look at the prediction percentage. Halo is not badly favored among casuals and Minecraft was the big favorite here. It's mainstream enough to be that way. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6065&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=15) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (2)Final Fantasy VII vs (15)Journey 2015 _source: (2)Final Fantasy VII vs (15)Journey 2015 (revid 84911)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Sunday**, November 8, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 2 - **Match \#:** 16 - **Match Date:** Sunday, November 8, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy VII - 80.10% 108 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Final Fantasy VII - 94.02% People will assume I hate Journey because of my opinion on Shadow of the Colossus, but no. Journey is actually an outstanding game. It deserved better than getting fed to FF7 in round 1, and it's everything Shadow of the Colossus wishes it could be -- simple, artistic, and extremely touching. The whole game is about 45 minutes long with no spoken dialogue at all, but has such an amazing message of friendship in it. Actually I suppose it could mean whatever you want, but I enjoy the friendship route. I'm also a HUGE fan of Final Fantasy 7 and will never understand where the hate came from or why it's still here today. It was a great game when it came out and it's still a great game today. can't wait to play the PS4 port and get dat platinum! Regardless, not much to say here outside of "thank god we had four matches per day". Can you believe we used to enjoy sitting through blowouts one at a time for 24 hours each? With this format, we got to see FF7 just godsmash a poll and prove it was a top tier championship contender, we got an intriguing Halo/Minecraft poll, we got Smash U proving it was for real, and we got a great Mass Effect upset. If this took place over four days it would have sucked, but as-is we got the Mass Effect poll to distract us from two boring blowouts. Thank god for this format, and man I hope it stays. Best idea these contests have had since they started. 12 hour matches suck and this is the best way of doing things. You all know it's true. Regardless, seeing FF7 go godmode was awesome. There was no ridiculous anti-voting to give Journey a lead for 5 minutes, no silly nonsense that showed FF7 would lose to Smash U or something... nothing like that. Just FF7 being a beast. It was nice to see for the time it lasted. ## Ctes's Analysis It's not like this match was ever going to be interesting, but you gotta love the result. Nothing I say here is any offense to Journey, I haven't played it and I don't really know anything about it either. With that said, damn was it great to see FFVII godstomp its first round match after everything that's happened to it the last many contests. It took the record for both highest blowout and highest prediction percentage, the first part especially is impressive, but the latter is also impressive considering it beat the overall \#1 seed as a two seed. Unfortunately, having such great prediction percentage would also mean that “FFVII always wins” wouldn't stop. Which it has needed to for a very long time. Seriously, it's way overdue, but we'll get back on that later. Final Fantasy VI looked great in its match, but FFVII kept being the favorite going into that match. Considering the anti-votes we know it still has, getting 84% is just amazing. Journey is probably bottom-tier here, but it doesn't really matter. In the end, it's not shown to be the very weakest and wasn't considered to be so very much. No matter how you look at it, this result was great. Chrono Trigger was probably considered to make the final four after its first round blowout, but with this result, Final Fantasy VII remained the favorite for sure. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6066&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=16) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Super Mario Bros. 3 vs (16)Age of Empires II: The Age of Kings 2015 _source: (1)Super Mario Bros. 3 vs (16)Age of Empires II: The Age of Kings 2015 (revid 84286)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Monday**, November 9, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 3 - **Match \#:** 17 - **Match Date:** Monday, November 9, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Mario Bros. 3 - 85.07% 108 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Mario Bros. 3 - 91.22% We all knew when this contest began that this match would be in contention for biggest blowout of the contest, so seeing Mario 3 go godmode was to be expected. But even in one of the contest's biggest blowouts, Age of Empires 2 getting 16% wasn't all that bad. People get much more attached to games than characters, so in a games contest you won't really see things like Tanner getting 5.7% or Adventure getting 4.8%. 16% is respectable. Even Hearthstone getting 9% was okay. Not much else to say about this match, except that this was the one and only time we got to enjoy Mario 3 winning a match in this contest. It would end up the first 1 seed to lose, which is just sad. Marios 1, 2, and 3, and Zeldas 1 and 2 hold a special place in my heart as being the games that got me into video games. Mario 3 stands head and shoulders above them all. What would eventually happen to it was just sad, though I won't pretend it didn't lose to a damn deserving title in its own right. And no, Mario 3 would not have won a fair poll. I was THE guy pushing Mario 3 in that Pokemon match and I am THE Mario 3 fanboy. I know when I've been beat, just let it lose with dignity and move on. It was never going to win that match. ## Ctes's Analysis This match was never going to be particularly interesting, but maybe it could be used to give us an idea of SMB3/Pokemon. But it didn't really. Putting up nearly 85% is no joke, but AoEII might very well be one of the weakest games in the bracket, well, the seeding is fitting, and SMB3 is probably one of the games with the smallest amount of anti-votes. It's the oldest game in the bracket I believe, and was definitely the biggest thing when it came out. I don't ever see anyone say anything bad about it. AoEII is kinda unknown though. SMB3 also has the highest playrate recorded on this site except for Tetris, so there's that. Can't imagine how low a playrate AoEII would have. It's also not the type of game to be popular on this site to begin with. All this taken into consideration, I wouldn't even say SMB3 looks particularly good here, but it is an old game and the more time goes the more the playrate drops. Fortunately for SMB3, this site has a limited amount of young users on the front page, but they still come. SMB3 was definitely stronger than SMW in 2004, which was super easy to judge as both faced Chrono Trigger, but they appeared on par in 2009. Best case scenario, SMB3 is about the same as in 2009. It did manage a \#1 seed, but if it has indeed fallen a bit as you might expect, this percentage is probably what should be expected of it. It's odds against Pokemon would be much better determined by Pokemon's performance. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6067&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=17) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (8)Pokémon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green vs (9)Tetris 2015 _source: (8)Pokémon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green vs (9)Tetris 2015 (revid 84287)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Monday**, November 9, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 3 - **Match \#:** 18 - **Match Date:** Monday, November 9, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Pokémon Red/Blue - 72.79% 104 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Pokémon Red/Blue - 72.54% There were very few match pic controversies this contest, but seeing Charizard making out with Blastoise is pretty hilarious. Regardless, this match was used to make Mario 3/RBY comparisons, and the comparison points everyone jumped to were the 2004 and 2009 game contests. In 2004, Zelda 1 laid down an SFF beating of 75-25 on Tetris before losing to Mario 3. The assumption there was that Mario 3 would have also SFFd Tetris into the ground. In 2009, Tetris got through two matches in the fourway format before losing. This time around, it got stuck sharing a poll with Mega Man 2, Mario 1, and Zelda 1. It was once again smashed into the ground by SFF. So when Pokemon RBYG went out there and failed to deliver a similar 75-25 beating to Tetris, people thought this meant bad things for Pokemon in the looming round 2 match. Certainly, Mario 3 would not fail to do such a thing. What people forgot here is that Pokemon exists on a very different plane from normal Nintendo, in that it doesn't really SFF anything, nor does it get SFFd itself. Even against itself, Pokemon polls don't really have SFF in them. We've seen Pokemon RBY and Pokemon GSC in contest polls together, and GSC was basically independent. The point here is this match was just fine for Pokemon. It was a very normal 68-32 beating that had no SFF in it at all, nothing more and nothing less. And given how well respected Tetris is, putting up 68% on it absent of SFF is no joke. Let's not forget that Tetris won a character contest once! Pokemon RBYG was out for blood this year, and had its fans bothered showing up instead of trying to "beat genwunners", I'm convinced it could have won this contest. ## Ctes's Analysis This was the big match that was gonna give us an idea on how SMB3/Pokemon was gonna go down, likely the most important match of the bracket, at least so we thought pre-contest. My impression of this match apparently went against everyone else's except for like MWC, but I actually ended up being correct. I usually don't brag, but I am gonna take credit for this one. Most of the write-up was inspired from a topic I made where I called Pokemon the favorite after today before Undertale rallying would kick in. First of all though, I must mention what shame it is to see Tetris being placed here in the bracket. It has some strength and it'd be really interesting to see what it could do against new games that are not elite tier like RBY is. I personally think Tetris would held up a lot better against more recent games and this match actually seemed to prove that. The two oldest games in the bracket being fed to Pokemon in the first two rounds is sad. Wish we had Tetris, or MMX I guess, in the bottom quarter of the bracket. That would've been fun. But no one with any contest knowledge doubted Pokemon's chances today. The prediction percentage is relatively low, but that's to be expected when RBY was this low seeded and its facing a game everyone recognizes. When I voted and saw RBY close to 70% of the votes, I was actually really impressed and thought it would definitely be the favorite against SMB3. I didn't feel safe about the match at all, because of things like bracket votes and Nintendo hierarchy, the latter which didn't really appear to be a factor at all in this contest. Also because Tetris is terribly hard to read into. After this match however, everyone laughed at RBY and called an easy win for SMB3. Ulti especially was going this, but while he called a 60-40 victory, though maybe exaggerating, everyone agreed that the outcome was obvious. I guess if you already supported SMB3 that was unlikely I change, but the main reason people came up with was actually that RBY had SFF'd Tetris in the match, which makes it look terrible. I tried to defy this logic, but with no luck. The day before the second round match started I made a topic where my main point was that there was no SFF, but not a single person there agreed with me. Seriously though, why the hell would there be any SFF in that match. It makes sense and thus, RBY didn't underperform. It doesn't matter if Zelda 1 put up 75% on Tetris in 2004, that doesn't mean any Nintendo game SFF's Tetris. Pokemon in particular has shown in the past that it ignores any SFF from other Nintendo game, but that's not even the point. I guess if you look way too simply at things, then yes, Zelda 1 would be stronger than RBY and it went ahead and lost to SMB3 twice, big deal. Not only was the Zelda 1 match 11 years ago and things change. Tetris probably improved since. I don't see why it wouldn't with it becoming huge on mobile and everything.It has had two playrate polls on this site. In 2005, 97.36% had played it, in 2014 that number went up to 98.85%. There was also made some good x-stats analysis by KP through 2009 showing RBy as a clear favorite, which I have sadly lost. Everyone ignored it then though. There is some sense in Zelda 1 SFF'ing Tetris. Both are from the same era, you think of both as classic video games. It's hard to judge, but there's sense to it. What there is no sense in is Tetris getting SFF'd the same way against RBY. People were actually arguing that because Tetris was huge on the Gameboy, RBY should be able to SFF it into the ground even harder than Zelda did, but that was a terrible argument! Did a large amount of the people that played RBY play Tetris too as kids? Yeah, sure, that much I agree with. But did a large amount of the people that played Tetris play RBY as kids too? No, aboslutely not. That's the thing. People argued that both was played on the Gameboy by the same people, but not only was RBY released somewhat late into the lifespan of the Gameboy, there's also the factor that everyone who played anything on any console ever likely played Tetris too. It exists on everything in some format. You can find it on the internet no trouble, you don't even need a console. It had 98.85% of people playing it. That's close enough to 100% that you might as well count it is that. That number is not going to decrease btw. Tetris is totally legit in these contests. It beats me that the same people believing that Tetris could've done damage to the bracket elsewhere believes it should roll over and die here. No way does it get SFF'd by a game like RBY that it has nothing in common with. Everything is has in common with RBY, it has in common with any other game too. They're not comparable and there is no reason for a vast majority of the people that played both to prefer RBY more than there is for them to prefer Tetris more. There is however a vast majority that has only played Tetris of the two. And unlike Pokemon, Tetris is surely one of the least disliked games there is. It's much smaller than it used to, but Pokemon will probably always be anti-voted to some extend. I doubt that's the case with Tetris. You're likely to vote for the game you have played in a match like this. Especially when Tetris is the one you have played. It might not be everyone's favorite, but it's perfect for what it is really. The same can't be said of RBY. The current Pokemon community even dislikes it we learned later during the contest. So let's sum up a bit. We sadly don't have numbers on RBY's playrate, but I think it's safe to assume that a vast majority of the people that haven't played RBY voted Tetris here, except for some people simply bracket voting. Of the people that have played RBY, a majority probably voted for it yes, but it wouldn't necessarily be that large a majority, considering people also have some things against it. Tetris being huge on the gameboy doesn't somehow favor RBY, it favors Tetris obviously. The more places you're a bit hit at, the stronger you become. It's not like Cloud coming to Smash will favor Link in a match between them either. We have Snake as confirmation for this. And it's the same principle here. To put it simply, the people owning gameboy would probably vote RBY more if Tetris wasn't released on it, but the people who didn't own one probably votes Tetris. I really can't understand this stupid logic that you have two groups of people liking each game, then introduce one game to the other group and that game which now more people knows would decrease in popularity between the one. But it wasn't possible for me to defy it before the match came. I'm not saying there's any significant rSFF here either, but it's more likely than the SFF people believed there was. Leon is right that if you believe Tetris was able to rSFF RBY, that doesn't give it good chances against SMB3, a game with just as huge a playrate that was also out on gameboy, but again, that's probably minimal. Of course, SMB3 did have some things in its favor as I mentioned. Bracket votes and Nintendo hierarchy being among them. Rivalry Rumble should be forgotten, but Mario/Bowser vs. Red/Blue does point in SMB3's favor if anything. These things were just not what people used to argue for SMB3 for most parts after today. They used something that actually pointed towards RBY being the favorite, because if you assume that it didn't SFF Tetris, which I have went through why you shouldn't, RBY was absolutely the favorite coming out of this match. It's victory here is really impressive. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6068&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=18) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Portal 2 vs (12)Sonic the Hedgehog 2 2015 _source: (5)Portal 2 vs (12)Sonic the Hedgehog 2 2015 (revid 84288)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Monday**, November 9, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 3 - **Match \#:** 19 - **Match Date:** Monday, November 9, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - 50.98% 61 for - 44 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - 40.39% I didn't get many upset picks right this contest, but this was an exception! I'm a massive fan of both of these games, so it felt good to be in tune enough with both fanbases to know how this would go. First, Sonic 2. This game got me to buy a Genesis by itself, and it's a game I'm completely in love with. It'll always be my favorite game in that series, and it's a good reminder of what once was. No series made a worse transition to 3D than Sonic, and no series sabotaged itself harder. But when I play Sonic 2, all is right with the world. Portal 2, good as it was, just didn't quite have the same magic as the original. Wheatley was funny, but at times he felt like tryhard comedy. Everyone knows the one guy who is only funny when quoting comedy bits or stealing jokes, and when he tries on his own he's a huge tryhard. That's Wheatley. We all know the true star of Portal 2 was Cave Johnson. GLaDOS was typical snarky GLaDOS, and the gameplay was much better than in the original. But if the original game was a 10/10, Portal 2 was a 9.5/10. Still an all-time great, but not quiiiiiite on the level of the original. Anyway, there were two reasons I picked Sonic 2. One is that the craze has been over for awhile. We'll be saying the same thing about Undertale five years from now; a certain internet buzz has to go into games like this if they want contest strength. Portal 2 doesn't feel like its ever had it. The other reason was this poll: People can tout games =/= characters all they want, but it's not true. Sure there are examples like Dante and Kirby where the character is MUCH stronger than the games, but Wheatley being that weak was an indicator that the internet isn't behind Portal 2 like it was the original. When the match began and things were basically tied, Portal 2 was fucked. It had bracket votes. Then Sonic won the second update and everyone knew what was coming. Portal 2 had just choked a similar match two years ago when Crash pulled his upset, and this match virtually mirrored that one. Wheatley stayed close to Crash for 45 minutes before getting buried. In this match, Portal 2 kept the match tied for 45 minutes, then got buried. Sonic went off to the races, and Sonic doesn't often lose races. A tie match 45 minutes in turned into a very comfortable 2400 vote, 53% win. It would set up a rather entertaining round 2 match with Uncharted 2, though obviously Undertale would have a massive effect on how that poll would play out. Not that we knew this at this point of round 1! ## Ctes's Analysis This was personally my very first pick against the cookie cutter, so nice to see it being correct. Portal 2 was the favorite on b8 and overall. It had the higher seeding too, so it made sense. The first Portal looked really great in GotD while Sonic 2 didn't exactly impress much last time we saw it. It was expected to be somewhat close, but there was good reason for Portal 2 to be the favorite I suppose. The match also meant a lot, because it was expected of the winner to go to round 3. But while Portal 2 was the favorite pre-contest, I don't it was right before the match began. The first Portal looked terrible against Melee and old games had looked really good in general. Sonic 2 didn't exactly win by a lot, but it was a comfortable victory. So where were the hints you needed to figure out Sonic 2 was the right choice pre-contest? Well again, when it comes to new vs. old, always go with old. Look at the age polls we have somewhat often and compare recent polls to older ones. We're just not having as many new users on the frontpage as we used to. The average user there grew up with games like Sonic 2. That's the main reason, but there's more too. The Portal series spawned a lot of memes, but it has sort of died down, and you shouldn't expect the sequel to be stronger obviously. Wheatley getting embarrassed against Crash in 2013 shows that more than anything. It's a shame that during Year of SNES, we only have a single Genesis game, but I'm happy to that game at least look fine. Although when you consider that Sonic 2 winning became obvious as the contest went rolling, this performance isn't really that great, so people started thinking maybe Uncharted 2 had a shot at round 3, similar to how they thought TLoU maybe had, though that was because of TLoU looking good not KHII looking bad. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6069&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=19) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (4)Uncharted 2: Among Thieves vs (13)The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series 2015 _source: (4)Uncharted 2: Among Thieves vs (13)The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series 2015 (revid 84289)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Monday**, November 9, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 3 - **Match \#:** 20 - **Match Date:** Monday, November 9, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Uncharted 2 - 58.51% 101 for - 4 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Uncharted 2 - 77.43% I feel like this comes up a lot, but it bears repeating: when licensed games and characters actually prove they're worth anything, let me know. The Walking Dead is one of the most popular shows in the history of television (especially by modern standards with the insane number of options people have), yet it's meant nothing on this site. It got destroyed in this poll, and Clementine got annihilated two years ago in the character battle. And I'm supposed to think Batman could beat Link, or that Darth Vader could beat Solid Snake? Hell, let's go midcard with it. Give me Venom vs Auron, I'd pick Auron. Captain America vs Jecht, I'd pick Jecht. And so on and so forth. There would have to be something unbelievably obvious for me to have any faith in these licensed characters, like for example a Spiderman vs Vyse match. Spiderman feels like the easy pick there, and even then I wouldn't be surprised if Vyse won. Licensed characters don't matter unless they catch a rally, though in fairness anything could potentially catch a rally. Anyway, it's no surprise whatever that Walking Dead was weak. Uncharted 2 is not a strong game, and it scored a doubling on it before getting embarrassed in its own right one round later. So I say bring on a licensed characters bracket, it'll be free points. Until of course Donald Duck catches a reddit rally and wins the entire thing. ## Ctes's Analysis This match was never going to interesting in the slightest. Uncharted 2 was the obvious winner here and rightfully so. The game is absolutely fantastic and it's a shame it's not stronger here than this. TWD doesn't look very good as a game from what I've seen. In any case, it was obvious it was gonna be really darn weak on this site. Uncharted 2 is not the kind of game with much strength here, it didn't exactly look good in GotD and it was expected to destroy here. A doubling doesn't even look that good actually. Maybe if TWD has a little boost from being a well known title before it was a game but I really doubt that matters enough for it to make a noticeable difference. I'm not sure how serious they were, but a few people were discussing if maybe Uncharted 2 had a round 3 shot because Sonic 2 didn't look more impressive than it did when compared to MMX and such, but this match was going on at the same time and Uncharted 2 unfortunately didn't look that good all things considered. There's also the factor of it being yet another case of new vs. old. If the match was ever in any doubt, it ended tomorrow at least. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6070&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=20) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Fallout 3 vs (14)Life is Strange 2015 _source: (3)Fallout 3 vs (14)Life is Strange 2015 (revid 84291)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Tuesday**, November 10, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 3 - **Match \#:** 21 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, November 10, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Fallout 3 - 77.76% 104 for - 2 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Fallout 3 - 92.72% This match was a very predictable blowout, especially on the back of Fallout 4 hype and ultimately being released during the contest itself (Fallout 4 was actually released on the day of this match). I have no idea what Life is Strange even is outside of it being tumblr: The Video Game, but it was getting like 19% of the vote for almost the entire match. Speaking of tumblr, let's get into why this match was a lot more intriguing than your typical 73-27 blowout. Remember when I said Life is Strange had 19% of the vote for most of this match? Well we were bound to have the new multi-poll format have unintended consequences, and polls sharing the spotlight with Undertale's rally were clearly and obviously affected. In the late afternoon, right when the big rally started, Fallout 3 had 80% of the vote. Undertale's rally, which had nothing to do with this match whatsoever, directly caused Fallout 3 to drop all the way down to 72.55%. It would be a very clear warning sign for what would happen in round 2, but we'll get to that in due time. For Fallout 3 to bleed this badly against a complete nobody opponent was a bad sign that it would be defenseless against a big-time rally. Losing 8% in seven hours is no joke. ## Ctes's Analysis Fallout 3 came into this match looking like a beast. I know Life of Strange is fodder, but for a Western game to put up 80% on anything is quite impressive. Fallout 3 was looking really strong and while the people that picked it over SMW would always be stupid, well, at least Fallout 3 looked good here. This was a boring match match and we knew that already before it started. Well, that is until around the 18th hour mark and things changed rapidly. It did in no way change the outcome here or get close to it, but it was still quite remarkable. Fallout 3 has over 80% of the vote when suddenly the Undertale rally attempted was reblogged by people with followers and that match went crazy. It turns out that tumblr prefers Life is Strange above Fallout 3 apparently! In the remaining 6 hours Fallout 3 didn't stop winning updates, but bled percentage like crazy. Don't be fooled by the final result, because Fallout 3 destroyed. Fallout 3 was never in doubt to reach round 3 before but now it was suddenly looking to be in serious danger. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6071&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=21) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (6)Undertale vs (11)Mass Effect 3 2015 _source: (6)Undertale vs (11)Mass Effect 3 2015 (revid 84292)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Tuesday**, November 10, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 3 - **Match \#:** 22 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, November 10, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Undertale - 29.65% 1 for - 105 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Undertale - 23.38% Before getting into anything else, I want to defend Mass Effect 3. It is the second strongest game in this contest after all, so someone around here needs to give it some love. First and foremost, "it's not Mass Effect 2" is a dumb reason not to like a video game. 2 went above and beyond every call of duty to get you attached to the last, and had some of the best storytelling in gaming history. 3 could never live up to that, especially given how the reapers finally reached the galaxy to invade it. The whole point is 3 doesn't have time to develop anyone or anything new. You're trying not to go fucking extinct. There's no time to sit around doing 3 loyalty missions to solve James Vega's daddy issues. I know the game does technically give you infinite time (we're not exactly playing Majora's Mask here, though a looming clock probably would have improved the plot!), but the point is that you're not meant to get attached to anything new. 3 was not meant to be your first game in the series. You were already supposed to be attached to everything. The gameplay is the best in the series, outside X having 398 different functions and directly ripping off the awful roll garbage from Gears of War. Not good in a cover shooter when X puts you in cover. Besides that, this game does the best job in all three of making all the jobs feel different. Engineers, Adepts, and Soldiers are NOTHING alike. Story and gameplay are there... for 99% of the game. I played Mass Effect 3 after the emergency DLC that added content to the ending, so I suppose I can't really understand or respect how dumb the original ending was. I've watched it on youtube, and yeah I can see why people hated the ending itself. But the events leading up to it are not as bad as people make them out to be. Yes, we'd be better off not knowing the motivation for the reapers. Yes, the final character's logic is idiotic and was proven wrong by 3's own events. Yes, we'd be better off if everything were completely ambiguous the second Shepard entered that final elevator. But it's not THAT bad, and certainly not worth crapping on and punishing the entire game. Why punish the final 1% of the final game in a series when you've loved everything leading up to it? Plenty of works of fiction have bad endings, but get respected independent of said ending. The ending of Return of the King sucks. The ending of Fight Club sucks. The ending of Final Fantasy 7 sucks. The ending of Superman (1978 version) sucks. The ending of Seinfeld REALLY sucks. And on and on and on. It doesn't change all of these things being good leading up to the bad ending. Why does Mass Effect 3 get punished as a whole for a bad ending? My theory is that gamers are whiny entitled brats who will never be happy with anything, though I'm sure other reasons exist -- Mass Effect 2 being a godlike game being among them. Then there's the multiplayer, which I spent 600 hours on (http://social.bioware.com/n7hq/?name=Ultimaterializer&platform=ps3). It's a buggy, laggy mess, and I still had an absolute blast with it anyway. The shorthand reason why is JOB SYSTEM. The longer reason is that it's unbelievably fun to play. It's horde mode, where you go through 10 waves of increasing difficulty before an 11th "fight for your life and escape after 2 minutes" wave. There are 4 overall difficulties, ranging from bronze to platinum, and as you play more you unlock stronger weapons and characters and such. There are also 4 types of enemies -- Reapers, Geth, Cerberus, and Collectors. The thrill of unlocking everything is great, as is the journey to get good enough to carry platinums. These days I can boot up the Geth Trooper Soldier spec'd for max shields, the Acolyte pistol, and Flamer, and just burn everything to death in seconds. If you go through my page there, you'll see the insane amount of stuff you can unlock and play around with. I've done just about everything in the multiplayer, and it's one of my favorite game experiences of all time. Starting out as a garbage-ass level 1 nobody and becoming one of the best online players in Mass Effect 3 was a blast. I'll get to my Undertale love in round 2, but in round 1 I was rooting for Mass Effect 3 as I hadn't yet played Undertale or learned how ungodly amazing it was. It's funny to think about how our contest champion wouldn't have won a single match if its opponent managed to avoid 500 anti-votes in the first match, but like I said during the Halo/Minecraft writeup, rallies require a lot of luck. Undertale had a great round 1 opponent, and it just snowballed from there. For 17 hours, this was a perfectly normal, run-of-the-mill poll. It was a standard 64-36 beating that would have been forgotten 5 minutes after the match ended. But then a lone user named trace excalibur made a post on tumblr that changed the entire direction of this contest. All he did was ask people to vote for Undertale in the match. Nothing more, nothing less. Just a big fan rooting for his game to do well, which is something we'd seen thousands of times before in these contests. I don't know if someone else managed to get anything going before trace did, but his blog post on tumblr is the earliest thing I can find. By all means correct me if this is wrong. A few minutes later at 5:15, a reddit topic went up on r/undertale. Then twitter got involved. Then 4chan and Facebook got involved. And before long, we were off to the races and watching the beginnings of the greatest contest run in this site's history. Before getting into the ridiculous numbers of this match, I need to put in perspective just how nuts this was. Our biggest 1v1 comeback was Sonic beating Crono in 2006, with Sonic coming back from being down 2207 votes. Our biggest comeback overall before this match was Draven/Jak/Chie in 2013, in which Draven came back from being down 2483 before catching a rally of his own. Big numbers to be sure, and very impressive records to set over 11 years of contests. Undertale would render them completely irrelevant. at 4:40 pm, with a mere 7 hours and 20 minutes to go in the entire match, Mass Effect 3 had a peak lead of 9252 votes. I'll say this again. 9252 votes. Even though the rally pieces would get put into place over the next hour or so, it still took some time to get the ball rolling. So while cuts were happening and momentum was building, it wasn't anything overly insane and wasn't remotely close to the pace needed for Undertale to actually win the match. At 6 pm, with 6 hours left, the lead was 8603. The comeback quota at this time was 120 votes per update. It was at exactly this time where Undertale just went completely berserk. We're talking Undertale getting hundreds of votes per update, while Mass Effect 3 was struggling to even get 80 or 90. There were updates here where Undertale would get in excess of 200, 250, 300, even 350 or more votes, while Mass Effect 3 was pulling in 80 at a time. It was the perfect storm of Undertale being a hyped new game and having a rabid fanbase, and Mass Effect 3 being a game that is unbelievably easy to rally against. Had even one point of the rally faltered, it might have failed. But when all the major players all agree that Mass Effect 3 needed to lose in a display of gaming justice, you have a problem. On top of that, this was genuinely fueled by Undertale's fans wanting the game to do well so it got more exposure. It would culminate in Undertale erasing a 9252 vote lead in a little over 6 hours, with the bulk of the work being done after 6 pm. It's a number so high, and a push so inexplicably unreal that you just had to be there and see it with your own eyes to actually believe what was going on. Reading this writeup will not do it justice for you. It isn't just the number itself, but the sheer speed of it. Doing it that quickly is insane. There was no resistance once the lead was breached, either, as Undertale would go on to win the poll by 1056 votes. To pull this off, it would pull in these numbers after 6 pm. (6)Undertale - 14965 \[73.82%\] (11)Mass Effect 3 - 5306 \[26.18%\] Total Votes - 20271 There was a lot of predictable whining once this happened, with the crux of it being people complaining that we had another Draven on our hands and that another contest was about to be ruined and decided by outside forces. First off, this has literally never been a "GameFAQs only" contest. There has been rallying since 2002, and the entire internet getting involved has been a thing since 2002: Secondly, there is nothing whatsoever wrong with a legal contest rally. Board 8 just likes to complain when such a rally goes against their predetermined and false narratives of what is and is not "morally allowed" in a contest. Did Board 8 complain when Frog rallied against Liquid Snake and Master Chief in 2004? No. Starcraft against Halo in 2004 (before turning on Starcraft the second the almighty Nintendo got beat)? No. Solid Snake when it started beating Final Fantasy 7? No. Pokemon when it started going godmode in the late 2000s? No. Majora's Mask when it did God's work and beat Brawl? No. Melee when it almost beat Undertale in the semifinal of this contest, two rounds after whining nonstop about Melee rallying to beat Chrono Trigger? No. L-Block when it went on its crazy run? No. Chrono Trigger when it came damn close to out-rallying Melee? No. The Trainers beating Cloud and Seph? No. Only rallies that are deemed outsiders get whined about here, and the incessant whining makes it unbelievably easy for other sites to look at GameFAQs and only see us as whiny crybabies. I've said it before and it bears repeating until people knock it off and learn their lesson: you don't get to pick and choose which rallies are allowed. You either support all of them or none of them. If you support none of them, I respect that opinion. If you pick and choose, you're likely to get screencapped and made to go viral every time this happens from now on. And you should, until you learn your lesson. It's basic logic; you cause a de-push by completely no-selling. Had people not whined so much, it wouldn't have caused the perfect storm of "Undertale is an amazing game!" plus "Look at these turbonerds on the contest board" that kept getting quoted by undertale-shitposts on tumblr every round. On top of that, there was no guarantee at this time that the contest was over, at least had people been smart and not started complaining so much. By causing such a massive buzz, they fed the beast. Had this been given positive energy instead, you'd be looking at having to beat Fallout 3 right after 4 was released, then Super Mario World, then Pokemon RBYG (tumblr's favorite franchise, and a game that could win any contest it wanted if the fans would ever go full force to rally for it) or Mario 3, then Mario 64, then Melee or FF7 or Chrono Trigger, then Ocarina in the final. That is an insane contest path, though having Mass Effect 3 first to get the ball rolling, followed by a strong-yet-not-Nintendo game in round 2 was the perfect chain of events. But we'll get into future matches as they come, I don't want to give the entire PCA right here and now. The point is, people on this site did every bit as much feeding of the monster as so-called outside forces did. And they made it very, very easy for people to root for Undertale to do well. Lastly, after this match I went and played Undertale for myself. To say it's deserving of the hype doesn't really put it into proper perspective. Undertale is absolutely one of the best games ever made and deserved every amount of hype generated by this contest. I won't repeat my entire opinion about the game since I wrote a review for it (http://www.gamefaqs.com/PC/180989-undertale/reviews/161494), but I would highly recommend you play the game if you haven't yet. It's a legendary title, and once I played it I was definitely on the bandwagon for it to make a deep run in this contest. Following along and rooting for it is the most fun I've ever had in one of these things, and I'm saying this as a guy that won a contest once. Following along with and rooting for Undertale was better. The game and its community really are that good. As of this writing, there's a post-contest poll asking if people bought Undertale as a result of the contest. 25% of people are saying they refuse to buy it out of spite, which is just ridiculous. You're refusing to play a great game because of how a poll went? Ridiculous. Someone else's opinion, or someone else acting silly should not be any factor whatsoever in whether or not to play a video game. In regards to cheating accusations, from Allen himself: Howdy all. I've reviewed the logs over the past few hours and there's absolutely no funny business going on here. We've seen people rallying in roughly equal numbers from rallies on tumblr, reddit, and 4chan. This isn't a group of hackers trying to mess with our contest, it's a shared love for a new and popular game across multiple fanbases. Undertale isn't exactly a trivial game, like some seem to believe. It's the 33rd most played Steam game right now. It was higher seeded than ME3 because it had more nominations and higher reviews and traffic. It's a bit of a surprise to most people (I picked ME3 in my bracket), but really maybe it shouldn't have been. Don't forget, rallies are to be expected, and are even covered in the contest description: "This is not a contest to see which game is your favorite, or even which one is the best rated. It's all a big popularity contest, and visitors who have never visited GameFAQs before will be sure to stop in and vote." ## Ctes's Analysis This match was never doubted by anyone really. ME3 is frowned upon mainly because of the ending. I played it when it came out first and I enjoyed it all the way through until the end. I heard they fixed it a bit with some DLC, but it can't be completely excused. The game is still good overall though, but it seemed obvious it would be the weakest of the three Mass Effect games. It also had the most predictable path. The first game had a debatable first round match but was never escaping round 2. The second game would go against Starcraft and the weakened Metal Gear series in a fun set of matches. The third one was simply gonna cream Undertale before getting creamed by Fallout 3, not really any fun in that path, but they can't all be. Undertale wasn't going to be a big thing here, it was a victory to a good bunch that it even made the bracket, and it's seeding was quite impressive, but it wasn't going to win. Not sure if ME3 failing to double says good things about Undertale or bad things about ME3, but 65-35 is generally a boring match, so let's move on to the next... Well, considering it was boring match for most of the day and was expected to be so, I don't anyone foresaw that this would be the match that changed the bracket for good. Suddenly Undertale cut 24 votes, nothing remarkable, it had cut before and sure this was a little bigger, but who cares. Next updates it cut 55 votes and people took notice. It was interesting to see Undertale start doing something. We tried to look for the obvious rally without knowing what was about to happen still. Undertale would continue these cuts the next few updates. Remarkable, but not nearly enough if it continued and we all knew it would slow down eventually. It was already slowing down a bit, so that was probably it… only for it to start rolling again. Undertale had in almost one and a half hour shred 800 votes, which is really darn impressive. The board was definitely on the watch now and figured out that the source was tumblr. If you weren't at the board when it happened, you likely missed it all, because there was really no reason to pay attention to any of the matches today outside of the first few udpates, all four were boring. Cutting 40-60 votes an update is no joke, especially with hour low votals, but ME3 despite going a sizable part of it was still 8.6k votes ahead. It was too late. Undertale would go out looking impressive, but you can't flip over 9000 votes in only 7 hours, we knew this. This wasn't Link or Draven. Had these Undertale rallies started earlier, then maybe it could happen, but it was just too late. We thought that at least. The next update Undertale cut off 200 votes. That was when things screamed out danger. The next update was over 300 votes. Rally power was definitely still a thing. The board exploded with panic mostly but also some people enjoying it. People was already calling Undertale a winner. There were ramblings about Hearthstone \> Ocarina of Time out of nowhere, it was crazy. We went from having four boring matches to having a board out of control. Of course the Hearthstone upset were just people overreacting, but the rest really wasn't. Undertale was on its way to winning this match. A few times it slowed down a little bit. Some were predicting that this wouldn't last, but they were not yet aware of how things worked a tumblr. Just another re blog and Undertale would keep rolling. There's also that whenever it started to slow down a little, it would just go big again a few updates later. But it was not over yet. While this was rally power in a league of its own (pun intended), that 9000 lead wouldn't be easy to come. Time was Undertale's biggest opponent here. It did slow down a bit I guess, but ME3 was still looking to lose. People tried to counter rally, but it was totally ineffective. ME3 is hard enough to rally as it is because the Mass Effect fanbase itself dislikes it, but the main reason is that it was ahead. People see the match, notice the lead and decide things looks fine. You can't expect outside people to realize what it happening here, sadly. The counter rallies never stood a chance. Creative's updater started going crazy here spitting out updates constantly. It was really confusing. You'd often think Undertale wouldn't make it, but then it turned out to be only a one minute update. It couldn'tbe avoided. With only 40 minutes to go, Undertale took the lead. It managed to put the lead up by over 1000 votes in the remaining time. What we just witnessed here was history. The single biggest comeback in history happened out of nowhere. People came the next day totally confused as to what just happened those seven hours. The contest had changed for good. We looked at possible rally potentials in the bracket, but didn't consider Undertale. The timing was perfect. It came out at just the right time and hit big at just the right crowd. The aftermath deserves mention to. Personally, I was sorta depressed after this match. I was so hyped about having a contest again and this match made major damage on my interest. The next few days I didn't really care. Undertale had far from won the contest yet, but it was looking likely that we were seeing another Draven and I really don't see the fun in that. I mean, if you like Undertale that's cool and all, but I wouldn't enjoy this no matter what game it was, trust me. I don't see why people believe this is fun to watch, it's pretty much just our contests being completely decided by outside forces. This match was interesting because it kicked in later I guess, so let's save this rant for another match. A bunch of people believed that there had to be ceiling of the Undertale rallying. Fallout 3 was a far stronger game and should be able to overcome this, especially with Fallout 4 having just been released so rally potential was there. Other people realized it depended on tumblr's interests and pointed to RBY being the savior because Pokemon is huge on tumblr too. Some people, mainly Heroic Mario, pointed to OoT as the savior, but it was always gonna be RBY or nothing. If a game like Undertale reached the finale, all would be over. Had OoT met Undertale in round 2 it would've probably stopped this, the same goes for RBY. That was just not the case. Finally, a group of people were saying that if Undertale was able to win this match it would go on to win the contest. And it did. They ended up being right, but it was never really a lock. We get back to this in future rounds, but there were at least two matches that could've gone both ways. It was not for certain that Undertale would win the contest yet, we still needed to see at full force, but I had the fear too. The worst part about this match was how it affected the other matches going on at the same time as well as the matches following it. I know that no result was actually ever changed because of rally spillover and thank heavens for that, but as a stats nerd, it's really sad to see it just wrecking everything it comes across. One thing is its own path, but I wish other matches would be unaffected. The idea of having several matches at the same time is fantastic, even though SBAllen later took it too far, but outside rallies is a real hole in the format. There's no reason to complain too much about that, since we dodged the bullet of having a match flipped because of it. Mass Effect 3 was just the perfect opponent for Undertale to get rolling, really. I don't think it could've asked for a better one in fact. If Undertale faced simply an ever so slightly stronger opponent, it would've lose this match. It took Undertale until the last hour to take the lead, you a little big stronger the opponent and it just misses the victory. The first Mass Effect was an \#11 seed too, I think maybe that would've been enough to stop it. Had Undertale faced a much weaker game like say The World Ends with You, it likely wouldn't have been the same either, because it probably wouldn't need these insane rallies to beat that and then it would've have gained the traction to beat a \#3 seed next round perhaps. But having such a close and intense match that was in doubt until the last two hours made everyone upon their eyes and look at this “underdog” and its potential. There's also the thing that if Undertale had a really weak opponent, maybe our board wouldn't have made all the stupid backfiring whining we saw. Seriously, they're not completely to blame because they didn't exactly start this, but I'm inclined to think that if BracketEntry, ExTha and MWC hadn't been complete idiots during this and the following Undertale matches, a game like RBY would've stopped this. If is beyond me how they can be so stupid especially when we already saw how it worked with Draven. Outside sources likes seeing board 8 whine and wants those goddamn salty tears from us, because apparently they never grew up. No outside sources appears to be smart enough to realize that every forum has their few loud whiners, but that they don't make up the entire forum. BracketEntry became famous after this match and outside of GameFAQs became the face of board 8. No user could be a worse face of board 8 than him. It's a frickin' alt! This becomes a lot worse later, but it started here. I like Extha and at times MWC too, but man did they deserve to have their heads smacked together after this day. As someone who didn't enjoy these huge rallies in the slighest, I was far more annoyed by some of our own users today. This is especially because the Undertale community was being pretty nice this first match. It gave them good reputation the whole contest, even though it wasn't entirely true during future matches. They had an image of just being passionate fans after this match. The guy who made the original tumblr post was a main factor in that. He came to board 8, with an account from 2005, and talked a bit with us about it, and he was really nice. When told that board 8 hated their contests becoming jokes, he was legitimately sad about it being seen as a joke. He just wanted Undertale to do well because he really likes the game and would make clear in future rounds that the intention was not to piss us off but to show love for Undertale. I mean, you can't really hate a guy like that even if you hate what he's going right? This just made things even better for Undertale. It was the nice passionate fans against the whiners from GameFAQs. We stood no chance. In later matches, parts of the Undertale community was being just as terrible as our worst users, but the image was there and couldn't be changed. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6072&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=22) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (7)Grand Theft Auto: Vice City vs (10)Final Fantasy VIII 2015 _source: (7)Grand Theft Auto: Vice City vs (10)Final Fantasy VIII 2015 (revid 84293)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Tuesday**, November 10, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 3 - **Match \#:** 23 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, November 10, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy VIII - 65.29% 106 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Final Fantasy VIII - 43.86% This was the first match of many where the Grand Theft Auto series would just thoroughly embarrass itself this contest. The Show talks about stars and turds of the entire contest. Is there any doubt the GTA series was the biggest turd? I have a whole list of hilarious GTA choke jobs in contests, but I'm saving it for a match later on. Vice City, even though it lost, was at least able to lose with a degree of dignity. It was up against FF8, which gets anti-voted in its own right, and didn't really do all that bad. It would have broken 40% on a mainline Final Fantasy title had Undertale's rally not been there, which is probably the best it could have asked for. And even with the rally, FF8 went from 58% to 61%. Nothing crazy, and nothing at all when compared to the effect that rally had on Fallout 3/Life is Strange and Mario World/Animal Crossing. Speaking of Final Fantasy 8, is it finally cool to like this game? Yeah, there was a lot of weird shit in it. So what? They went completely nuts because they knew they were following 7. It's hard following a legend, but FF8 did about as good a job as one could have done. The only real problem with it is the plot, but the gameplay is solid if not hilarious. Abusing junction is one of the funniest things in that entire series to do, right on par with beating yourself to death to gain stats in the original FF2. Intentional comedy is still comedy! Bless your heart, Final Fantasy 8. And let's not forget about Triple Triad. There is no better mini game or side quest in the entire series outside of the hunts in FF12, and that is a damn fact. you loved Triple Triad. Don't even front. ## Ctes's Analysis This match was never really in any doubt. Vice City is very likely the strongest GTA on this site. Probably the only one that has been in a contest and has yet to embarrass itself in some way. Outside of course of being embarrassing for casuals. It even surprised once, by people beating Metroid Prime. Metroid Prime was a victim of LFF then and Kingdom Hearts might have taken some kiddy votes from the Nintendo games, but Vice City was still not supposed to escape that match. A PS1 Final Fantasy game is out of its league though. FFVIII winning here was always a lock. Don't let the prediction percentage fool you, because it's just the casuals thinking GTA is good on this site as always. They never really learn. Vice City managed to get more than 41% too, which isn't that bad all things considered. FFVIII is no joke in these things. Of course, the Undertale rallies played its part here. This was actually the only match of the four where the rallies favored the game that was already winning. FFVIII went from 58% to almost 61%. Not quite as impressive as Life is Strange or Animal Crossing, but you gotta remember that its much harder to gain percentage than take it from a game that it blowing you out. People looked at this and at tumblr loving Animal Crossing and considered briefly that FFVIII could maybe use Undertale's rally powers to give SMW a scare. That was never going to happen in the first place, but the ones of those people that were actually serious simply forgot the main demographic on tumblr. Teenage Girls. GTA wouldn't be favored against anything there, most games would look against it with a tumblr vote influencing. Good thing for the series that the other games were far away from Undertale, even if they managed to find another way to embarrass. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6073&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=23) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (2)Super Mario World vs (15)Animal Crossing: New Leaf 2015 _source: (2)Super Mario World vs (15)Animal Crossing: New Leaf 2015 (revid 84294)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Tuesday**, November 10, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 3 - **Match \#:** 24 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, November 10, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Mario World - 81.41% 104 for - 2 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Mario World - 90.18% Mario World beating Animal Crossing to death, likely in an SFF beatdown, looks like nothing on the surface. But when you look at the effect of the Undertale round 1 rally, this match becomes hilarious. Vice City/FF8 wasn't affected much. Fallout 3 bled a lot of percentage, but ultimately it wasn't anything insane. Undertale obviously won its match. But this match? This was not a 73-27 beating the whole way through, oh no. This match started at a godstomp-level ass kicking of 85-15, and stayed that way all day long. It was undoubtedly Nintendo SFF going as berserk as it could during a games contest. Then the Undertale rally happened. Not only was Animal Crossing able to bleed hilarious amounts of percentage, but it actually got several notable cuts throughout the remainder of the match to finish at what you see now. Still a blowout for sure, but hardly an 85-15 annihilation. You don't just see games getting 15% start to bleed percentage and make several cuts in a match. It ultimately meant nothing outside of proving tumblr likes Animal Crossing, of course, but it was still freaking hilarious to watch. And no, this was not a guarantee that Mario World was screwed later on. But we'll cover that one in round 3. ## Ctes's Analysis I thought this match had the potential of having the biggest blowout of the contest because of the difference in strength but also because this match unlike the other biggest blowout contenders would have SFF. Super Mario World looked up have potential to actually achieve this, but it didn't quite seem to be able to reach Chrono Trigger's. It still looked excellent though. It really is the year of the SNES. 84% is no joke. New Leaf isn't exactly isn't the absolute worst. Given how little SFF we saw this contest, I'd say say that there was close to little here and SMW looked stronger than SMB3. RBY was still the favorite to win the division, but SMW had better odds than SMB3 for sure. That'd be my perfect scenario too. RBY beats SMB3 and the Pokefear gets real, but then SMW comes and beats the great RBY, not only saving us from our Pokefear, but also proving once and for all that it's the better 2D Mario. You might argue that it'd be better if SMW just beat SMB3 in a direct match, but it's much more incredible the other way around. Of course, all this ended up not mattering. Suddenly, with 6-7 hours to go, we had a new thread to take the division and make it all way. Undertale rallies kicked in and outside of course of Undertale's own match, this was the one that was affected the most. Turns out Animal Crossing is huge on tumblr with them being cute animals and all. New Leaf shred percentage no trouble. People overreacted to this and thought that “if Animal Crossing could beat SMW doing the rallies”, SMW would be in real trouble next round. Well, first of all, unlike the previous match where FFVIII was favored because of GTA hate, New Leaf was favored here because of love for that game and franchise with nothing against the other. Furthermore, yes New Leaf stalled like crazy. It even managed to win updates, but not by much and overall, SMW was still winning all those crazy hours. It's just that SMW was ahead by so much that New Leaf was allowed to really kill it in percentage. So to the small groups of Animal Crossing fans out there, well, you got something out of these contests. Your game didn't look bad going out! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6074&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=24) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim vs (16)Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney 2015 _source: (1)The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim vs (16)Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney 2015 (revid 84295)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Wednesday**, November 11, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 4 - **Match \#:** 25 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, November 11, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Skyrim - 70.97% 105 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Skyrim - 90.05% The first few minutes of this match was a perfect storm in Phoenix Wright's favor. It's Board 8's meme game of choice (including being the logo of our wiki!), tumblr likes it, there was Undertale rally spillover, and Western RPGs aren't big on this site. I mean they're relatively big now, but not big enough to prevent all the factors in Phoenix's favor from giving him a lead for a few minutes. This match was actually tied for a little while, though Skyrim was able to recover by the freeze before ultimately exploding in percentage for the doubling. I'm usually against repeated fodder entrants that waste time like Guybrush Threepwood, but Phoenix Wright at least gets to make Board 8 laugh for a few minutes every year. Plus he was like top 10 in the 2013 character x-stats, so obviously he's just a hidden beast waiting to be unleashed! As for Skyrim, this was not a good opening showing. Games that are true championship contenders, like FF7, Mario 3, Pokemon, Ocarina and the like, went out and dominated in round 1. Skyrim did not do this. Yes it had never lost a poll to this point and did finish with a doubling, but you really imagine Mario 64 (the biggest obstacle in its way of winning this division) struggling with Phoenix Wright? Skyrim proved from the start that it was kind of screwed, and it was frankly lucky to make it to the Mario 64 match at all. ## Ctes's Analysis No game will ever have a board vote like Phoenix Wright. It's sort of amusing, but it's just our thing. It's weird to me how a series like that can be so extremely well beloved here, but it is. More than anything. When it comes to Phoenix Wright, we vote against bracket and favorites without thinking twice. This of course gave Phoenix Wright an early boost. This time though there was also the rally spillover, which seemed to favor Phoenix Wright. So up until a minute into the match, Phoenix Wright was actually in the lead. Everybody knew it wouldn't last, but goddamn a \#16 shouldn't threaten like that be it temporary or not.  Skyrim recovered the whole day through, but man what a bad way to start. Skyrim definitely shouldn't be a \#1 seed, but we still saw it as what might be the strongest Western game, so this was just an unfortunate start. But that rally spillover is no joke. It's influence is huge and Skyrim recovered pretty well all day. It might've gotten 70% without it, which is pretty great. Less votals have meant Phoenix Wright have gotten quite a bit stronger. It's kinda hard to figure out exactly how well it would've done without the spillover, because this time, the rally takes affect from the get go. But the votals were quite a bit higher so no doubt it's there. But the people that considered Skyrim a threat to Mario 64 looked stupid now, rally spillover or not. Skyrim had better chances at not making the division finals than escaping them. It was hard to judge from this, but Skyrim had quite a bit to prove. The unfortunate part is that every single match it could have would be influenced by rally spillover now. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6075&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=25) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (8)GoldenEye 007 vs (9)Diablo II 2015 _source: (8)GoldenEye 007 vs (9)Diablo II 2015 (revid 84296)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Wednesday**, November 11, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 4 - **Match \#:** 26 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, November 11, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** GoldenEye 007 - 55.06% 90 for - 16 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** GoldenEye 007 - 63.66% There was some minor hype around this match pre-contest, because ever since 2004 and the villains contest people have feared Blizzard's rally power. These people clearly haven't played any Blizzard games since the Diablo 2/Brood War glory days, because that company has completely run itself into the ground and turned into absolute garbage. The worst offender was World of Warcraft, which was Blizzard's version of Wind Waker. Once they made that game and realized they could fleece as much money from their addicted fanbase as possible with minimal effort, Blizzard was done. WoW would subsequently run itself into the ground, to no one's surprise. But let's not stop there. Diablo 3 literally did not work on launch day, then when people got it up and running the drop rates on items were so abysmal that people quit en masse just weeks after starting -- not to mention the AWFUL auction house garbage. They tried fixing Diablo 3 with various patches and expansions, but the damage was done. Warcraft 3's single player campaign was okay, but the hero + creep system in multiplayer rendered it one of the worst multiplayer experiences in gaming history. The literal only good thing to come from Warcraft 3 was IceFrog and Guinsoo creating Dota, which spawned the MOBA genre. But that's not technically a Blizzard accomplishment; that's people taking the map editor and showing their own talent. Starcraft 2 is a cash grab abomination of the highest order and is a direct result of the Activision-Blizzard merger. Remember, video games are not about having fun and should exist only to suck as much money from people as possible. Why make a good 60 dollar game when you could release multiple things over time and make a 500 dollar game? The Activision-Blizzard CEP literally said this. Cue Starcraft 2 being released in three parts, even though it was advertised as three games with expansion prices on two of them. I recently played Starcraft 2 over a friend's place since he was dumb enough to actually give Blizzard money (heaven knows I'll never do it again), not to mention the game finally actually being out, and it's absolute trash. Garbage gameplay, garbage plot. The entire plot that was set up over five games and years upon years of hype came down to "hey Protoss, just cut your hair off and we win". I am literally and in no way exaggerating. Dumbest bullshit I've seen in years, and I've played a lot of bad video games. Oh and let's not forget Heroes of the Storm, which is Blizzard's awful attempt to hop onto the MOBA market. It has no items, only hero levels. There is nothing else you need to know. The game is trash. So no, Diablo 2 was not beating Goldeneye. One game comes from a damaged brand that will never be repaired. The other is respected to this day, and even today has world championship tournaments that NGamer64 regularly attends. Diablo 2 by itself is a legendary video game, and is my personal favorite Blizzard game of them all. Some of my best gaming memories of all time involve Diablo 2. But Diablo 2 getting its ass kicked in this poll meant more than a point in a bracket. It was justice for all of gaming. Fuck Blizzard. Fuck Activi\$ion. Fuck everything that company has done since World of Warcraft. They cannot go bankrupt and be out of gaming fast enough. I'm sorry Diablo 2 had to be sacrificed for the greater good, as it did nothing wrong, but certain things must be done in the name of gamer justice. Goldeneye deserved this. It's still the best FPS ever made, and the people who try saying it's aged badly or is overshadowed now have no idea what they're talking about. At the very least, we can agree to disagree. And yes, it's better than Perfect Dark. Sometimes having limits on what one can do is a good thing, since you're left wanting more instead of doing too much. The best-looking girl in any strip club is the one with the most clothes on. ## Ctes's Analysis There was a lot of talk about GoldenEye upsettying Skryim pre-contest, but I didn't see much about the potential upset in this match. It might've just been that NGamer got to hype GoldenEye \> Skyrim a bit on The Show. Diablo II winning here was a cool little upset, definitely not impossible. Count out bracket votes and such, and it might just break 45% too. Then there's the rally spillover, which favored GoldenEye a little bit seemingly. It's difficult to tell and it wasn't much, but GoldenEye started out a lot stronger than it ended. Those two things aside and this would be a lot closer, so you can't blame people for thinking Diablo II stood a chance here.  But while they were close, it doesn't take too much contest history to get this one right. And I don't just mean looking at previous results from these two games specifically, which would also favor GoldenEye. It's just knowing that GoldenEye is from a strong era. It ended up being Year of SNES instead of Year of N64, which gave the GoldenEye and Banjo upsets in round 2 even worse odds, but the N64 era is still powerful here. Diablo II might come from roughly the same time, but it's a PC game and those never do well here. If you're in doubt about a match and one of the entrants is a PC game, well, a good rule is to pick against the PC game. You're pretty much always correct and this match was no exception. Considering that GoldenEye rode a little rally spillover to get this much on Diablo, it would really take some weird shenanigans for it to beat Skyrim. That upset wasn't looking too hot right now. Rally spillover would need to favor GoldenEye a lot and that didn't seem all too likely. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6076&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=26) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Metroid Prime vs (12)The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind 2015 _source: (5)Metroid Prime vs (12)The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind 2015 (revid 84297)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Wednesday**, November 11, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 4 - **Match \#:** 27 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, November 11, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Metroid Prime - 63.68% 106 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Metroid Prime - 71.90% The Elder Scrolls series did not have a good contest outside of Skyrim. Both Oblivion and Morrowind lost in round 1, and the former was expected to make a big run had it gotten out of the first match. That being said, they do have some respectable strength here, and even in a round 1 loss Morrowind showed that Metroid Prime had a serious weakness that its younger brother would take advantage of later. In the beginning of this poll, Metroid Prime was above 70%. As you can see by looking at the final results here, Metroid Prime finished with 63%. Losing 7% over the course of 24 hours is not a good thing, and it's rather odd for a Nintendo game. Usually these games have strong power hour votes and strong morning votes. Some have strong after-school votes. Metroid as a series, for rather obvious reasons, doesn't have typical Nintendo trends. Metroid was a star of this contest, but if it was more Nintendo-like it could have pulled off two of the biggest upsets of all time. As-is, it would suffer two very painful and very close losses in the realm of what-could-have-been. It's always been like this for Metroid, too. Just awful day votes that really mess with it in close matches. This year, Morrowind showed us very early that things weren't going to change. Metroid would end up having a good contest, but it could have been so much better. ## Ctes's Analysis This match was boring in itself, but sorta interesting in the sense that Metroid Prime would have a big upcoming match with Skyrim and this match could show its chances. The issue is that we had no idea where Morrowind would be this contest. It wasn't exactly strong in 2009, but beat Silent Hill 2 and exceeded expectations a little bit against FFX and MGS2 even though it was a boring match and it was never close. It probably had some strength then, just didn't get a match where it could show itself. In 2010 it got blown out by Melee and was expected to. Basically, we have no good read on this game. It was also expected to have fallen a bit this contest. It was already overshadowed by Oblivion last time and now Skyrim could've made this even worse. We just didn't know where it fell from, so it was really hard to tell its strength, but everyone could at least agree that Skyrim should be quite a bit stronger than Morrowind. If you look at Metroid Prime's previous results, then it looks pretty darn good here I think. It doesn't look like a game that would lose to Fallout 3, but we have to once again factor in Undertale rallying from the previous day. Prime was heavily favored by this. It started out above 70% and basically dropped percentage the whole day so Prime would probably not break 60% by this much without coming right after that rally. This didn't exactly pit as the favorite against Skyrim unless it would have the same spillover boost as it had today. To be fair, that didn't seem so unlikely! You also have to factor in that Morrowind might've very well boosted slightly from Skyrim being there at the same time, so that evens out bracket votes at the very least. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6077&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=27) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (4)Half-Life 2 vs (13)Demon's Souls 2015 _source: (4)Half-Life 2 vs (13)Demon's Souls 2015 (revid 84298)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Wednesday**, November 11, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 4 - **Match \#:** 28 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, November 11, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Half-Life 2 - 60.70% 103 for - 3 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Half-Life 2 - 78.90% There's very little to say about this match, outside of the actual result being rather predictable. Predictable match plus no trends in a 64-36 match makes for a pretty easy writeup, which is nice to have once in awhile! This entire fourpack was clearly set up to have a big Metroid Prime/Half-Life 2 rematch, and when Allen released the top 20 games in terms of picks to win the contest, Half-Life 2 was in 20th place with 104 picks. Metroid Prime did not make the list. Prediction percentage also lined up with Half-Life 2 while vote totals were rather even in round 1, so the major comparison point is whether you thought Demon's Souls or Morrowind was the stronger game. Personally I don't think any of this really mattered, since we have a rematch precedent where we almost never see the first-time loser turn it around. But we'll get to that in round 2. ## Ctes's Analysis I personally think this was the match that was the least affected by the Undertale rally spillover. Sure, Half-Life 2 destroyed the first few minutes, but a good bunch of that is probably bracket votes judged by the prediction percentage. If there was any spillover here, it's minimal. Half-Life was quicker than Prime to calm down, so I don't think the spillover had a true preference here. In any case, the match was never in doubt. I don't think round 2 was ever in doubt either, but it was going to be a rematch of a fairly close 2010 poll, so a few people thought Half-Life 2 could pull that one off. Failing to double Demon's Souls put any doubt about round 2 to rest though, if it wasn't already. I'm not saying this is a bad result per say, but it's not enough to get close to Prime and that was obvious. I feel like Morrowind would definitely defeat Demon's Souls and judged by round 2 that does seem true. Half-Life 2 is surely biggest on PC and as we've seen this is not a good contest for those games. The first Half-Life definitely seemed weakened against FFX so Half-Life 2 probably decreased similarly. Anything else wouldn't make sense. It's a shame, I actually really like those games despite them not being the kind of games I typically play. At least one of them got to win a round, and the rematch would probably give us an idea of just how much they fell! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6078&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=28) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Super Mario 64 vs (14)Mario Kart 8 2015 _source: (3)Super Mario 64 vs (14)Mario Kart 8 2015 (revid 84301)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Thursday**, November 12, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 4 - **Match \#:** 29 - **Match Date:** Thursday, November 12, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Mario 64 - 77.79% 104 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Mario 64 - 86.53% SFF beatdowns of the highest level always amuse me, and a Wii or Wii U game getting its ass handed to it on a plate also amuses me. This was a wonderful performance by Mario 64, and for those of us who picked it to make a deep run in this contest it's exactly the kind of no-mercy poll we were looking for. On a deeper level for me, fuck the Mario Kart series. The only ones that are even remotely playable are Super Mario Kart and Mario Kart 64, because those are the games that existed before things like blue shells, dual cars, snake drifting, and motion controls. Mind you, they're still garbage and I said remotely playable. The entire concept of rubberband AI and punishing the players who do well by giving good items to those in last place is a gigantic example of our "everyone gets a trophy, don't hurt anyone's feelings" PC culture. It helped raise an entire generation of entitled gamers that are unable to face reality. And why would they? They got to sit in front of Mario Kart and get handed blue shells and lightning bolts if they were in last place. What's dumb is this crap is happening in the real world, too. No more tag, no more dodgeball, no more running at recess, nothing. You must be all-inclusive at all times because we can't hurt anyone's feelings. We can't teach anyone how to win by first teaching them how to lose. No more getting in fights. And now they want to ban words like mother, father, husband, wife, boy, and girl, because the liberal PC crowd and LGBT lobby will pretend to get offended if you're not trans-inclusive. This video is not as impossible as you think: Fuck Mario Kart and fuck equality. You're allowed to lose. Suck it up and deal with it. Thank you based Mario 64 for not even letting this trash break 20% on you. ## Ctes's Analysis This match was not interesting and everyone knew that. It might be the Wii U game with the highest playrate, but it's fine just feeding Mario Kart 8 to SM64 too, because it was never going to do anything in the bracket, which is unfortunate, since it's a great game! But yeah, put MK64 or SMK in the bracket and it might be fun. The latter in particular should have huge board support next bracket after Year of SNES and Super Metroid's run in particular. Everyone knew this would be a blowout, but I expected it to be a lot worse due to direct SFF. I think I predicted SM64's percentage to be eight times higher just like the numbers at the end of the game, but this honestly isn't as much as you'd think. Especially considering SM64 was taken to the finale by a few people. Pretty sure pre-contest it was the favorite of the Mario games. But I guess the SFF isn't as direct as I thought. The two games are from different generations and different genre too, even though they feature the same characters. In my head, SM64 haven't held up very good and should go by nostalgia mostly, but I'm in a minority there and the game remains big with speed runs in particular. There's also the fact that we've barely had any SFF all contest in general. It just doesn't really happen much anymore. I wouldn't be surprised if there wasn't any SFF in this match at all really. At least it's minimal. At this point, it seemed to have kinda disappeared from out contests for whatever weird reason, but that at least makes x-stat adjustments easier and also means that we maybe wouldn't see some game make a great run to be god stomped by OoT or something. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6079&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=29) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (6)Final Fantasy Tactics vs (11)Resident Evil 2 2015 _source: (6)Final Fantasy Tactics vs (11)Resident Evil 2 2015 (revid 84300)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Thursday**, November 12, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 4 - **Match \#:** 30 - **Match Date:** Thursday, November 12, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy Tactics - 54.24% 93 for - 12 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Final Fantasy Tactics - 52.98% This was a fun little dual between my favorite game and FFDragon's favorite game. Friendly banter is always fun, and to this day the dude will never forgive me for breaking his Wesker Mercenaries Castle record in Resident Evil 4 in one shot. His score wasn't even bad, I'm just kind of obsessed with playing Wesker on that level \<\_\< Anyway, though FFT was the favorite here I'm not going to lie that I was worried it would lose pre-contest. Not for any particular reason; I always get worried about my favorites in matches that aren't 100%. Thankfully once this poll began, it was 58-42% in FFT's favor and barely moved at all for the entire match. It was a good, comfortable win that I was happy with. Everyone wants their favorites to win at least once. Not that it had a prayer against Mario 64, but hey! Worth noting here is that Resident Evil didn't have a very good contest, and the series as a whole has been trending down for years. Most people won't even remember that RE1 and RE2 made this contest, RE4 got upset early, and no other game in that series even matters. I hate admitting this because I love RE4, but I can see where hardcore series fans are coming from when they say 4 ruined everything. 5 was pure garbage, and 6 didn't even happen because it was bottom of the barrel. Now series fans have to get hyped about remakes of old games, because the new ones don't deliver anymore. The Law of Unintended Consequences strikes yet again. ## Ctes's Analysis This match was pretty decently debated pre-contest and the prediction percentage confirms that, it's one of the closest to 50% we have. That said, I never really understood that. I know that it's a spin-off Final Fantasy against a mainline and very well received Resident Evil, but it's still Final Fantasy vs. Resident Evil. It's not like 2 was ever anything special in these contests either, only 4 has been. It couldn't get out of a group of three games that SFF'd each other in 2009. Tactics on the other hand has only lost to MSG (and GSC too in 2009), which isn't a bad result. It held up fine too. And while it's a spin-off Final Fantasy, Tactics is bigger than several mainline games. No one doubted Tactics had made the bracket when Allen said eight Final Fantasy games had. I mean, it was confirmed when he said the sum of them all was 56Tactics, but everyone predicted it before then too. I have actually never played it, which is really something I wanna do at some point. Anyway, you don't really need to look at the specific previous results of Tactics and Resident Evil 2 to get this match correct. I am dead tired of people saying “Final Fantasy always wins”, because of one 11 year old contest, when, even though it's mostly directed at VII, isn't really true, but what is true is that it's a strong franchise. That doesn't guarantee wins for it, but when in doubt about a match where one of the games is a JRPG and the other is not, you rarely ever go wrong, especially when it comes to Final Fantasy. The Final Fantasy games went 8-0 in round 1 and three of them had debatable matches. Tactics didn't even have any trouble winning this one! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6080&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=30) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (7)The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess vs (10)Skies of Arcadia 2015 _source: (7)The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess vs (10)Skies of Arcadia 2015 (revid 84312)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Thursday**, November 12, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 4 - **Match \#:** 31 - **Match Date:** Thursday, November 12, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: Twilight Princess - 74.45% 105 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zelda: Twilight Princess - 86.21% This match was very predictable and barely worth talking about in its own right, though in looking at it, it struck me as familiar... Twilight Princess = Wind Waker seems like a real enough comparison to me, and the match would be very hard to pick. It also ended any talk of a potential Twilight Princess \> Mario 64 upset (which was fueled by Link \> Mario in the Nintendo hierarchy causing SFF), because no one in their right mind would pick Wind Waker to beat Mario 64. You need the full armada to beat that game, and Twilight Princess simply doesn't have it. It does have a weird amount of respect though, which I suppose is understandable because you get Adult Link for the entire game and followed the graphical abomination that was Wind Waker. People seem to like the long tutorial, while I'm all about the dungeon-hopping that begins with the Arbiter's Grounds. There's definitely a disconnect between old-school gamer and new-school with that preference though, and we'll just never agree. It actually floors me that transience has only played Wind Waker among the 3D Zeldas, and it turned him off from the other 3D games. I can see why given Wind Waker is trash, but at least play Ocarina. In the same arena, I really should get around to playing Skies of Arcadia. If KP recommends it, it's guaranteed to be good! ## Ctes's Analysis This match was incredibly boring. While no matches today were interesting, this one just lined up perfectly with the Game of the Decade x-stats and brought exactly nothing new to the discussion. This is one of the matches that makes you the most happy that we have several matches going on at the same time. Although with that said, it is quite fascinating that it lines up so perfectly in some way. They get laughed at more than necessary when they're wrong, but they're right so many times in comparison and lining up this great is just perfect. Of course, you do see a few users you don't know being surprised about a result like this. For as much reputation “Zelda always wins” has, it really does surprise me anyone thought Skies of Arcadia could win here, I mean, it's not a bad game and it didn't even do bad either, but would it win on any site anywhere? I doubt it. It's one of the cases where fans of the game should appreciate that it made the bracket, because that honestly doesn't feel like any guarantee and it received a \#10 seed even! During this contest there was a good amount of discussion about where the featured Zelda games ranked. OoT on top and LttP was obvious. Majora was also obvious as third, but where Wind Waker and Twilight Princess ranked was up for debate seeing as they looked roughly equal, but lost to Brawl and Majora last time, meaning we'd have inflated stats there. Unfortunately, this match couldn't really give us anything new in that regard. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6081&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=31) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (2)Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4 vs (15)Nine Hours, Nine Persons, Nine Doors 2015 _source: (2)Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4 vs (15)Nine Hours, Nine Persons, Nine Doors 2015 (revid 84303)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Thursday**, November 12, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 4 - **Match \#:** 32 - **Match Date:** Thursday, November 12, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Persona 4 - 70.36% 104 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Persona 4 - 92.48% I shit on Persona's fanbase a lot for being among the most annoying fanbases in gaming (a fact that they're actually proud of, because heaven forbid anyone have the opinion that the games aren't that good), but part of my big face turn is getting more in tune with the hug-it-out stuff. So with that being said, every fanbase should enjoy a contest win here and there, and Persona 4 has more than enough respect to pull wins off. This thing made round 3 in Game of the Decade and pulled off a great match against Dead Rising (though one wonders how impressive a nailbiter against literal Dead Rising is), and this year it got enough nominations to get a 2 seed. This bracket was set up well, and almost all of the top seeds won their first match. This was hardly Nathan Drake getting a 2 seed and getting stuck fighting The Boss. I'm sure 999 is a fine game, but it didn't have a prayer here. Persona 4 is decently strong and all, but it's not 78% strong against anything but an absolute contest bottom-feeder. There aren't many games that I can objectively say should not have been in this bracket, but 999 is one of them. Where the hell was Sonic 3 & Knuckles? Mario 1? Zelda 1? Link Between Worlds? Link's Awakening? Final Fantasy 1? Contra? Mega Man 2? Street Fighter 2? Devil May Cry 3? Super Smash Bros. Brawl (yes, seriously, I objectively think Brawl not making this bracket and trying to redeem the Game of the Decade final is a joke)? Street Fighter 4? Super Smash Bros? Super Mario Kart? MOTHER FUCKING LEAGUE OF LEGENDS?????? God of War? Star Fox 64? As a matter of fact, let's just list the games I objectively think should not have been in this bracket. I say objectively because while I would love certain games I personally hate not to make the bracket, I'm not silly enough to think they shouldn't be in. Any Best Game Ever contest should obviously have things like Shadow of the Colossus, for instance. The "Why did these get in?" list: Persona 3 The World Ends With You Pokemon XY Age of Empires 2 The Walking Dead Life is Strange Animal Crossing: New Leaf Mario Kart 8 999 Monster Hunter 4U Super Mario Maker Bloodborne Fallout New Vegas Splatoon Bayonetta 2 Virtue's Last Reward BioShock Infinite That's 16 games we could easily get rid of, maybe more if I looked again. Some of those snubs are unforgivable, and it was all done to keep League out of the bracket. Allen did a great job with this contest, but not allowing League to get in was a mistake. You cannot prevent rallies from taking these contests over anymore. It's impossible. Just embrace it and tell the crybabies to buy a pacifier and sit with the rest of the children where they belong. ## Ctes's Analysis Seriously, when a game like Persona 4 has such a high prediction percentage and can score such a blowout, the other game really shouldn't make a the bracket. Persona 4 is of course a \#2 seed, which it likely got because it has a more dedicated fanbase that most things. But it has more main appeal than anything else from the franchise. It's a step above the rest. Fans can be just as passionate about other SMT games, but I think the Persona 3 match made it perfectly clear and we're seeing a vocal minority and only Persona 4 is worth having in these contests. But yeah, Persona 4 scoring this much led to some absurd ideas. People were considering if it might give Twilight Princess a scare, but it was obvious Skies of Arcadia would double 999 too. 999 is a contender for the absolute worst game in entire bracket. Just to make it clear, I mean strength wise, I know nothing about the game. I'm sorry once again, but this was one of the times where I had to knock my face into my desk at the decision of letting Super Mario Bros miss the bracket. Seeing as it just missed it, it means games like 999 were looked at and expected to be a better addition by SBAllen and can you imagine having Super Mario Bros at this part of the bracket? One of the absolute most predictable four packs would suddenly be heavily debated. Not sure it'd be that interesting, but more than this for sure. It's a big waste of a bracket spot, so I really hope that the fans of the game were happy that it made the bracket. Also, there was discussion of 999 being SFF'd here. It's an interesting theory coming from the fact that they look like similar games. I don't know if they actually are, but I can see where people are coming from, but I must admit that the theory doesn't really hold water. Different developers and consoles aren't things that lead to SFF, especially in a contest where SFF is very limited to begin with. This is just 999 because turbo fodder in these contests. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6082&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=32) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs (16)Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft 2015 _source: (1)The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs (16)Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft 2015 (revid 84314)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Friday**, November 13, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 5 - **Match \#:** 33 - **Match Date:** Friday, November 13, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 80.25% 96 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 95.61% Every contest has a legendary blowout, and for this contest, it was Hearthstone getting its ass kicked. For the anti-rally crowd this was a well-deserved blowout, because once Undertale happened a lot of people feared Hearthstone's massive subreddit would cause something silly. For them, this is the type of beating they feel all potential rally targets deserve. I agree Hearthstone deserved this, though more for a "Warcraft can go away forever" reason than anything else. I'm almost positive 3604 is a new record low for vote total in a contest poll, and we were all cheering like mad for Ocarina to reach and ultimately break 91%. It was a championship performance by Ocarina, which made its other matches seem very strange later on. We all know what happened in the final, if you take this first round match away, Ocarina looked very off this year. This match will ultimately take its place on the list of legendary contest blowouts, and since people love lists, here you go: I don't really care about anything but 1v1 with a list like this, since this is much harder to pull off a laughable blowout in than a multi-way poll. ## Ctes's Analysis Pre-contest, we were discussing a lot if the contest would have the same fate as the previous contest, meaning that some game would rally its way to vicotry. League of Legends failed to make the bracket by missing top 100 nominated games and then having bad reviews kick it out from there, so reddit couldn't rally it to victory here. On the very first episode of The Show, NGamer looked up various subreddits. By far the most active one of any minor game in the contest is that of Hearthstone. Hearthstone just made it in as a \#16 seed, which gives it bad odds to begin with, but had it faced say GTAV, you never know, maybe a rally could be worked out and gain momentum. But it got to face the favorite to win it all right away, Ocarina of Time. You never know, but I personally wouldn't be surprised if SBAllen put them against each other on purpose after all that happened last time. Better just play it safe. Earlier during this contest, Undertale managed to pull off a victory from a successful rally attempt and I think it made some people fear Hearthstone a little, or perhaps get excited, depends on the user. But it was just never going to happen here. I don't know if a weaker opponent would've given Hearthstone a chance to make a match of it, but no one bothered against the defending champ. Not only did Ocarina of Time win without any rallies showing, it also completely destroyed Hearthstone in the biggest blowout of the contest so far. Hearthstone became a contender for the absolute weakest game of the contest, its seeding definitely got justified. I don't think anyone truly believed it, but if Ocarina of Time were to lose before the finals it would be to rally, and such rally just didn't come on this side of the bracket. Ocarina of Time looked to have a very boring path this contest, just as we expected it to. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6083&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=33) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (8)Suikoden II vs (9)Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate 2015 _source: (8)Suikoden II vs (9)Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate 2015 (revid 84315)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Friday**, November 13, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 5 - **Match \#:** 34 - **Match Date:** Friday, November 13, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Suikoden II - 50.68% 66 for - 30 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Suikoden II - 51.43% This was a highly debated match pre-contest, and when 1 point matches cause massive arguments all over the place it's always amusing. It's not like this was Mario RPG vs Oblivion or Mario 3 vs Pokemon RBYG, where deep contest runs were on the line. Like I get arguing is fun and bracket hype is the best part of every contest, but man. Matches like this where you get two unknowns and/or two fodder entrants of similar strength follow a very simple flowchart: Nintendo \> Squaresoft \> Japanese RPG \> RPG \> Japanese \> old \> new \> contest experience \> top option \> everything else. Yes I made this as a joke in 2 seconds, but how often is it wrong with matches like this? Yes you'll get exceptions like Mass Effect beating Mario Galaxy 2, but can we really call that a match of two unknowns or two fodder characters? Someone who isn't than me needs to test that flowchart. It probably is accurate, which would be hilarious. Anyway, the point here is Suikoden 2 was never going to lose this match. Suikoden 2 is totally a Japanese RPG, while Monster Hunter 4 is merely an RPG! Clearly, Suikoden 2 wins. Plus it had contest experience, it was the top option, and it was the older game! It's clearly a foolproof method that should be used in all debatable matches from now on. Enjoy the perfect brackets and I will accept a 10% donation of your winnings, please and thank you. ## Ctes's Analysis Whenever I pick something that goes against the guru cookie, I almost always feel at least a little nervous about it. There're a bunch of experts on the opposing side that has looked on the match and thought differently about it than me. It's natural to feel unsafe about it. But I just don't think I ever did here. I know that Suikoden II has not exactly been a world beater in these things, but you should expect it to get a major SFF hammer from the most popular game on the site at the time when said game was also a PS1 RPG. More importantly, why in the world should Monster Hunter be any better here? It's not even about old vs. new. I mean, the fact that old games consistently beat new games in debatable matches made this match obvious, but I think it should've been before that too. Suikoden II is weak yes, but a mediocre 3DS RPG above a PS1 one? MH4 isn't exactly known as one of the top 3DS games either, even though it has been successful. And Pokemon aside, console games are just stronger here. Of course, had new games been stronger this year, it would've been closer, but Suikoden II would've have been in any danger. 57% is quite convincing. Suikoden II is a contender for the absolute weakest game to make round 2, but while you have matches like Final Fantasy IX vs. Kingdom Hearts or Red/Blue vs. Tetris, you also have matches like this, two weak games facing each other. Sometimes a really weak game gets to advance and this contest, Suikoden II got that lucky matchup. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6084&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=34) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Okami vs (12)Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos 2015 _source: (5)Okami vs (12)Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos 2015 (revid 84316)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Friday**, November 13, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 5 - **Match \#:** 35 - **Match Date:** Friday, November 13, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Okami - 59.38% 94 for - 2 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Okami - 54.65% Gamer justice strikes again! Warcraft 3 is just so atrocious on every level, and I will never understand why people like it. Yes the map editor was good and spawned Dota, but that is not anyone in Blizzard having any talent. That's smart people using Blizzard's engine. Warcraft 3 getting its ass kicked in a poll is always a good time, so I very much enjoyed this match. I suppose the plot is passable, but World of Warcraft completely crapped on the entire Warcraft lore so it doesn't really matter now. Okami is a very strange case in these contests. It never blows anything out, but never gets blown out itself, at least in the 1v1 format which we all know is the only format that matters. The trend would continue this contest. To date, nothing has ever broken 60% on Okami or Amaterasu 1 on 1, and anyone who brings up Rivalry Rumble can bite me \<3 ## Ctes's Analysis This match should've been very obvious. Okami and the lead Amaterasu has proved themselves previously in these contests to be worth at least something. A mid-carter. Okami reached round 3 and managed to look respectable against Metroid Prime last time. Being a PS2 game, it also didn't really have reason to have gotten weaker. Anything Blizzard on the other hand, seems to fall each time. World of Warcraft especially seems to keep falling, but it's not really limited to that only. Last contest Warcraft lost a close battle to Morrowind, which with the release of Oblivion shouldn't be worth much. Blizzard games have shown to be good in close matches. Starcraft is the best example, but Warcraft beating GTA in the series contest is another. However, that may have ended. It's probably not as much Blizzard as its PC games in general that we've seen declining over the years, so why should Warcraft be any different? The best argument for a Warcraft victory is definitely that World of Warcraft beat Okami in 2009. That said, Okami shared the poll with MGS3 and another console game, which should at least have held it back a little. Games that gets anti-voted as Blizzard games does will obviously perform slightly better in 4-ways when an anti-vote can go to three different games. In a one vs. one that year, I honestly doubt think Okami would lose. And that's against World of Warcraft, this is Warcraft III. Naturally, Okami ended up winning with ease too. It was a heavy favorite on the board with a few Warcraft supporters but not any noticeable number. And yes, the prediction percentage for Okami is a little bit low, but it's Warcraft, it's casual bait to some degree. Though it's nice to see Okami being the overall favorite. Seeding helps a lot of course, but maybe people in general realizes what kinds of games just wont do well here. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6085&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=35) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (4)Final Fantasy IX vs (13)Kingdom Hearts 2015 _source: (4)Final Fantasy IX vs (13)Kingdom Hearts 2015 (revid 84317)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Friday**, November 13, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 5 - **Match \#:** 36 - **Match Date:** Friday, November 13, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy IX - 48.12% 33 for - 63 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Final Fantasy IX - 39.04% I know a lot of people tune into the PCA for rants, political commentary, some bashing, the occasional off-the-wall writeup, and genuine passion. I appreciate it. But once in awhile I just have to geek out about how good something is, and both FF9 and Kingdom Hearts 1 are just all-time, godtier-level games for me. When I first played Kingdom Hearts, I was a massive Final Fantasy fanboy (I still am, in truth). When Squall first shows up to kick the hell out of you, I was completely hooked. Then Cloud and Yuffie and everyone else showed up, and Kingdom Hearts the game turned into a minor distraction between seeing Kingdom Hearts the Cameo. Not that the game is in any way bad, mind you. The original game was the best mix of platforming, Disney, action RPG, and bonus content. The plot was okay. Lots of good things going on, and it existed before things like Tetsuya Nomura being an idiot, Organization 13, and this hilarious series plot synopsis: Seriously, look at that and try defending this series' plot. But KH1 happened before all that garbage, and really was a classic. It holds a special place in my heart, and will always be "the game that showed us everything this series was supposed to be". 2 was good, but you could see the rabbit hole of nonsense opening up in that game. Then there's FF9, which is an unbelievable game in its own right. Yes us fans are insane freaks. Yes the game's random battles are ungodly slow and every single enemy attack shouldn't have been named. Yes there are problems with character development because the game likes to hyper-focus on a new character before forgetting about them for 2 discs. We know all that. We don't care. FF9 the game is better than the problems it has. First off, the cast is great and even with weird character development it tells the story better than any other game in the series. Having scenes exist away from the main character was a great touch that more games need to copy. The real selling point is gameplay. The whole thing is a tribute to FF4, and as we all know, the rule of JOB SYSTEM \> no job system is law. Great extras, great cast, great plot, great everything. The thing I'm most passionate about is probably the artwork. I have the big FF9 art book, and seeing everything come to life after every single little detail was hand-drawn is unreal. The talent that some artists have is just unreal. Come match time, even though I'm in love with both games, I was forced to choose. I chose FF9, because it's hard not to hold the garbage direction of the Kingdom Hearts series in contempt. FF9 was the clear underdog though, especially after KH2 smacked MGS4 all over the place. Much to my absolute shock, FF9 won the early vote and the match was tied 313-313 at the freeze. Then FF9 actually started building a lead after that and my jaw just dropped. Yeah I picked FF9 to win and I was rooting for it, but actually seeing do well was something else. You guys seeing this prediction percentage? People really had faith in Kingdom Hearts this contest. It wouldn't last though, because just as quickly as FF9 built a 100 vote lead, Kingdom Hearts erased it. We all figured the match was over at this point, because Kingdom Hearts has an amazing day vote, and us FF9 fans know all too well that FF9's day vote is pure trash. Like it's just laughable how bad FF9's day vote is. We're talking Chrono Trigger levels of bad here. So when the match stayed tied for hours overnight, we were just kind of sitting there waiting for the other shoe to drop. Then the dead zone hit. This is typically Square's best time, and though this was a Square mirror, Kingdom Hearts has trends that look more like Nintendo -- great morning vote, great ASV. FF9 took advantage of this weakness, and built up a 400 vote lead during the dead zone. Not that this would matter once the Kingdom Hearts day vote hit, right? To say I'm shocked Kingdom Hearts lost the day vote doesn't even begin to describe it. Let me pull up some old matches here. Alucard had a lead in this match two hours in: Kuja had a 450 vote lead before the morning vote: Castlevania had a 1200 vote lead heading into the morning vote: RE4 had a 1200 vote lead for first place and almost lost it in this poll, and if it were a 1v1 poll it very well might have lost: Same thing almost happening in round 2 of that contest: It even cannibalizes itself! This was a tie match for a couple hours, then the ASV happened: Dante/Vergil came back from down 500, but forgot about DAT MORNING VOTE: This was a 1500 vote lead at one point: Zidane probably wins this if it was a night match: Other stuff might exist, but you get the idea. Kingdom Hearts has a legendary day vote, and FF9, uh... doesn't. Being down 400 against FF9 with the morning vote coming is nothing. So for Final Fantasy 9 to win the morning vote and build a 1000 vote lead, then stall the ASV was nothing short of miraculous. I don't care is this is AntiTrendsFAQs, FF9 pulling this off was an early Christmas miracle and one of the coolest things that happened in this entire contest. I love you Kingdom Hearts, but I love Final Fantasy 9. It deserved this. A lot of theories were thrown around about why FF9 pulled it off, with the most logical of them being that the 90s-era games were on a whole new level of respect in this contest (a theory backed up by how this contest's results shaped out). Yes I know FF9 came out in 2000, shut up. This match actually took place on the game's 15th birthday, so it pulling off the most improbable of contest trends was quite the birthday present! This set up an FF9/Okami match, in which I was rooting for FF9 but was worried it might lose. Turns out that was a needless concern. ## Ctes's Analysis This was a big match because the winner would undoubtfully reach round 3. Both games could surely beat the rest of the division with ease except of course for Ocarina of Time. Initially when I saw this match, I thought that surely would a Final Fantasy game beat a Kingdom Hearts game and rightfully so too. I mean, Kingdom Hearts is just a cheesy and easy kind of Final Fantasy with Disney characters, so while they may be close in strength, it'd be natural for me to Kingdom Hearts underperform against a Final Fantasy title, but then I looked up some past polls and saw that Kingdom Hearts in fact holds up incredibly against Final Fantasy. You'd expect it to underperform, but it doesn't. It put up quite impressive performances against Final Fantasy X in 2009 before losing to that and Melee, but it's not only in contests. Earlier this year we had a poll asking which schedules release people was looking forward to the most and Kingdom Hearts III easily beat Final Fantasy XIV. Of course that's different, but it shows that the above reason to support FFIX here doesn't hold water. That didn't mean FFIX couldn't win, but Kingdom Hearts should be considered too. I gotta admit though, I'm very surprised by how many people actually did that. FFIX is a \#4 seed while Kingdom Hearts is a \#13 seed and yet only 39% of brackets favored FFIX? FFIX was even the board favorite, it's quite unlike the casuals to pick against seeding unless it's like World of Warcraft against some obscure JRPG. But this is Final Fantasy they're picking against! Maybe not the most successful of them but a Final Fantasy regardless. In the end I picked Kingdom Hearts myself. In GotD, Kingdom Hearts looked a little bit stronger at least in raw x-stats, but it gets difficult to judge when they're on opposite sites if the brackets and most late Brawl and Majora matches might be inflated a bit. This contest, Majora looked to be completely equal to itself in 2010, but Brawl could still give some wrong results, like if you believe Twilight Princess overperformed against it. Also, FFIX lost to FFX in a SSF beating. They were probably roughly on par, so we knew this would be close. Looking at how well Kingdom Hearts helds up against Final Fantasy actually made me consider if it's the other way around, Final Fantasy underperforms against Kingdom Hearts. The latter has Final Fantasy and Disney, so just maybe, and then I sided with Kingdom Hearts. The match was in no way boring. Considering our low votals, the amount of good matches we've had might be a bit disappointing, this one at least delivered for a while. For the first five minutes, it was very even and then at the freeze, they completely tied with 313 votes each, which is one of the coolest updates of the contest. Ties in general are epic, but at the freeze? Everyone knew we had a match. The next few updates promised good things for FFIX, but it couldn't put the lead above 100 and quickly lost it again. It took longer for Kingdom Hearts to cut the lead down than it took for FFIX to build it, but it happened. FFIX won the If It Were Up To Board 8 contest, so it made sense for FFIX to do well with the early vote. We didn't know this yet of course, but you don't have to be too active to know our board loves the game. When Kingdom Hearts took the lead I felt like that might be it. But it wasn't. The match stood still for too long. Kingdom Hearts kept the lead for a while, but was completely unable to take the lead over 20 votes, in fact, it topped at 16. An hour later FFIX took it back again, but this time, also FFIX was unable to push the lead above the 20 votes. Then Kingdom Hearts took it back and we repeat once again. It's weird we didn't have more lead changes than we had considering how close it was during this time really. It seemed that whenever one of them took the lead, it really took something for the other one to take it back. FFIX did take it back again for what would be the rest of the match, but we didn't know this yet. After the lead change, it only took it one more update to take the lead above what it had been for any side since FFIX dropped its initial lead and it would continue to build that lead. Kingdom Hearts won updates, but things were looking positive in favor of FFIX. The match was currently in the deadzone. While most trends are gone with smartphones and everything, geography still exists. There was hope for Kingdom Hearts when the US woke up. The deadzone should favor FFIX if any of them, which also turned out to be true. The thing was, the rest of the day also favored FFIX just a lot less than the deadzone. Kingdom Hearts consistently won updates, but failed to make a real attempt at this for the rest of the match. As the US woke up, FFIX slowed down a lot, but in the pic picture, the lead was still growing. It slowed down a lot more the further into the morning and day we got and at times the match practically stood still, but stalling was the best Kingdom Hearts could do and it wouldn't be enough. At this point, the final result was obvious, if Kingdom Hearts couldn't push more with the morning vote, well, it wouldn't pull this off. What it did however pull off, was insane stalling. Almost 14 hours into the match, FFIX broke the 900 vote barrier and it never took a real shot at 1000. Everytime it tried getting up there, Kingdom Hearts pushed it down to roughly 900 again proving that FFIX needed that deadzone. The final hours actually favored Kingdom Hearts a bit, naturally, as Europe went to sleep. This match is the perfect example of the trends we still have, which are purely geographical. So Final Fantasy IX won in the end, but I still don't feel bad for picking Kingdom Hearts. Not only was it a close match, I also think that five years ago, the last time we had such a contest, it would've been different. I believe in a FFIX boost. It's not that much, but it was what was needed. It's small enough that KHII might've very well won this match, but it's big enough for FFIX to win. The real hint at this would be the 2013 contest, which saw the crazy Vivi\>Mario upset. And while people are good at completely ignoring Ganondorf, aka the worst possible third entrant for Mario, in the poll as well as pointing out turds more than stars, that still showed good things for FFIX. The game had received some kind of cult status or whatever. For many years, FFVII was the big PS1 Final Fantasy which is obviously still the case in the big picture, then FFVIII had a few people throwing support in its favor. FFIX came out, but with no particularly interesting characters, it was overshadowed by the other games, coming late on the PS1, and also FFX coming for the PS2 not too soon afterward. Vivi being the strongest character here pretty much proves that, because you know looking like a regular Black Mage has been a boost for him to begin with. Zidane has never been notable on this site. Recently though, Final Fantasy IX have made some kind of breakthrough in people's minds. Escaped its status as the overlooked game. It looked on par with FFIX this contest and got beaten by it easily last time. It's nice, it's a good game, though when something comes out of the shadows as some kind of “underdog” it tends to get overrated, but hey, good game! I like it better than Kingdom Hearts as least, which is fun gameplay, but easy. And the story? That's not something to be too proud about. It's a shame I picked incorrectly, but I liked the result. Perhaps if Kingdom Hearts III has been closer, this could've gone the other way around. You gotta give props to Kingdom Hearts for being so consistent over so many years though, not many games do that. A bunch of games pre-2000s look stronger now, but so many games from this current century experience a downfall and while Kingdom Hearts is from 2002 and thus very early into the century, completely avoided that downfall is impressive and deserved to be mentioned as it goes out in an early unfortunate matchup. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6086&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=36) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Xenoblade Chronicles vs (14)Donkey Kong Country 2: Diddy's Kong Quest 2015 _source: (3)Xenoblade Chronicles vs (14)Donkey Kong Country 2: Diddy's Kong Quest 2015 (revid 84318)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Saturday**, November 14, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 5 - **Match \#:** 37 - **Match Date:** Saturday, November 14, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Donkey Kong Country 2 - 47.39% 29 for - 68 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Donkey Kong Country 2 - 37.98% This match generated a lot of pre-contest hype, and unlike most round 1 matches that get hyped up, this one was worth arguing about. The Xenoblade/DKC2/Fire Emblem/Mario Maker fourpack was among the weakest in contest history, and past that there was a chance that the winner of this could beat the Banjo-Kazooie/Symphony of the Night winner. I ended up picking Donkey Kong Country 2, because of FLOWCHART™ reasons: Nintendo \> Squaresoft \> Japanese RPG \> Japanese \> RPG \> old \> new \> contest experience \> top option \> everything else. When in doubt, picking Nintendo will rarely do you wrong. The FLOWCHART™ is honestly a joke I made in two seconds, but the more I think about it the more accurate it gets. How often has it really been wrong since the big Kingdom Hearts boost of 2003? It was also a pick against Xenoblade, which despite its very loud fanbase, is an extremely obscure game even by GameFAQs standards. Not that it's Xenoblade's fault, of course. I know it's a good and well-done game, don't get me wrong, but don't forget that this is the game that spawned this now-infamous Jimquisition video that just shit all over Nintendo's idiotic localization practices: So after that nonsense happened, gamers whined a lot and the game was finally localized. Usually I'd bash gamers who whine too much, but this is a case where they had every right to. Here was a game people were willing to buy on the spot, and Nintendo was virtually giving people the middle finger and daring them to pirate it. Nintendo reluctantly gave North America the game, and to date it's sold half a million units, with a sequel on the way. That's actually an insane number given it was released at the very end of the Wii's life cycle with no promotion at all. Skulk even got into Smash Bros 4, which was bound to get the game extra votes. Hell, Xenoblade even had Donkey Kong's laughable contest history in close matches on its side. It's impossible to discuss any debated DK match without bringing up these gems: I know they weren't all losses and that Donkey Kong Country is a much more respect entity than Donkey Kong the character, but holy crap. There is no way to have any faith in Donkey Kong in any close match anymore. The point here is there was no real way to know who would win this, given both games had good points for and against it come actual match time. When the match actually came, we were treated to the closest 24 hour 1v1 wire to wire poll in contest history. These two games were tied for the first 30 minutes, then overnight Donkey Kong quickly built up a 100 vote lead. A lot of people assumed the match was over at this point, since even if Xenoblade came back and did anything, the day vote would likely favor the "more Nintendo" of the two games -- DKC2 being that game in this case. It had the SNES pedigree in a contest loaded with 90s dominance. As we all know, this wouldn't exactly be what happened. Xenoblade slowly got rid of the 100 vote lead going into the dead zone, and tied things up at 4 in the morning. From there it began building its own lead and peaked at a lead of 290 at 7:30 am. The number 290 was the peak lead either side had in this match, and is our new record holder for closest 1v1 24 hour wire to wire match ever. What Shadow of the Colossus and MGS2 accomplished was neat and all, but it was a 12 hour match. I don't consider that the real record. Anyway, so Xenoblade had this lead of 290 at 7:30 am. Had it won the morning vote, it would have easily won the match. Instead the morning vote was ever-so-barely won by Donkey Kong Country 2, which began the process of performing the two-steps-forward-one-step-back dance on the lead. Every time it would cut 10, it would give back 8 or 9 votes later. But it was, overall, trending the lead downwards. After this continued all morning long with Xenoblade never really acting like it wanted to win the match, things were tied up around lunch time. Now you know how in the stats topic we always joke around about vote barriers? It actually was a vote barrier in this match. Once DKC2 tied the match and began building its own lead, it would reach these milestones that were untouchable. The 100 vote barrier was bulletproof, but the truly funny one was 200. DKC2 got this thing above 200 right around the ASV, then held on for dear life for another 9 hours as this thing just hovered in the 200-250 range. Xenoblade made one push to try and actually come back -- a 15 minute time period where it cut off 30 votes -- and DKC2 just bitch-slapped the push away like it was nothing. This would continue to the end of the match, where DKC2 would ultimately win by 254. It was a hell of a fight and very fun to watch, if not heartbreaking for the Xenoblade fans. They had a 3 seed and the perfect setup to make a deep contest run, instead they were the only game seeded between 1 and 3 to lose in round 1. That's a hell of a bracketmaking job by Allen, when you look at it. For DKC2 and Donkey Kong in general, getting some contest respect was a long time coming. Had it lost in round 2 it could have laid claim to having a successful contest, since so few people (only 24% of gurus and a similar percentage in the Oracle) thought it could actually win. But it had some more tricks yet to come. ## Ctes's Analysis This here was probably the most exciting match of round 1. It was exciting for most of the day too. Xenoblade Chronicles was the massive board favorite to not just win this match, but also to reach round 3 and some people even took it to the division finals too. Xenoblade has a huge cult fanbase, but losing to Borderlands 2 in a GotY poll doesn't exactly spell out Division Finals material. However, this was perhaps the weakest eight pack of the entire contest and very likely the weakest four-pack too. It was exciting in the sense that all four games had a fair amount of people supporting them to reach round 3, with also at least a few taking them to the division finals. A total of six games were considered possible division finalists from this part of the division, which is probably more than anywhere else in the bracket. So while it seems unfair that a game like Kingdom Hearts had to go out in round 1 when there are places like this in the bracket, well, at least it made for some excitement. While the other match in this four pack was over in seconds, this one of was incredibly exciting. Donkey Kong Country 2 has appeared once before in 2009 coming right out of the nomination rally contest and then looking terrible in a SFF beatdown. I mean, losing to GoldenEye, SMRPG and even Resident Evil 2 isn't bad, Resident Evil 2 in particular because of the overlap between the other games, but it didn't look to be worth anything in the defeat. You'd think a fan favorite like DKC2 could've managed more in that match back then, but it had under 10% of the vote. It's hard to get a read on the first DKC as well, due to it getting SFF hammered by A Link to the Past, but it advanced and while it lost to Super Metroid and Super Mario Kart as well in round 2, it didn't look that bad going on. Plus, after this contest, that result looks a lot more impressive! The first DKC is probably stronger is what could be concluded, but only the second one managed to make the bracket due to being the fan favorite. This was its chance to show itself today, and did it ever! Xenoblade was probably more favored than it should be, but had people known this was Year of SNES and that old would destroy new in debatable matches, I'm sure more people would've went with DKC2. I personally got quite a few matches correct just by picking the older game, but I couldn't do it here. Anything Donkey Kong has simply always looked so terrible in these contests and even when you think Donkey Kong finally is worth something, he chokes it away. I couldn't pick DKC2. Xenoblade only needed to have a little bit strength to defy old\>new and win here too, but it was really weak. I know DKC2 ended up looking good this contest, but its still rather weak overall. Xenoblade proved itself to be rather disappointing actually. Had old games not been favored so much now, Xenoblade probably advances to round 3 without too much trouble, but getting past SotN could never happen, now or in the past. People that picked Xenoblade to the division finals probably regret it within the first few minutes, but just because it was closer than we thought, it could still make round 3. Remember the epic tie at the freeze in yesterday's big 3 point match? Well, that repeated itself today. It wasn't obvious this would be a three point match today, but in any case, we actually had another tie at the freeze and damn does that bring excitement from the get go! Xenoblade won the next update, but right after DKC2 took the lead instead. For a few updates the lead was under 10 votes, but DKC2 kept it! Then it actually started building a lead. It was crazy to see. This was definitely not the match where Year of SNES became a term, but I think this match confirmed it most of all. If DKC2 could pull this off, then it truly was Year of SNES. For one and a half hour, DKC2 slowly increased the lead, lost an update every now and then bringing hope to Xenoblade fans, but didn't really look back until it peaked at the 2 hour mark. That was seemingly the entrance to the deadzone, which would undeniably favor Xenoblade. Xenoblade would have to take good advantage of the deadzone, because that was obviously going to be DKC2's worst time. It would need to take back the lead and build one itself so it could stall the morning vote. But DKC2 held on very well for quite a while. It took Xenoblade 2 hours to shred of the 100 vote lead before it finally took the lead. From there, it did start building, but despite us getting deeper into the deadzone it didn't go that fast. It took it an hour and 20 minutes to build a 100 vote lead for itself, but from there it kept going strong. For the next few hours Xenoblade extended the lead to almost 300 votes. It topped at 288 votes at the 7:30 mark before DKC2 would start cutting for real. It had cut a few times before, but it can mostly be seen as stalling. It wasn't obvious this was Xenoblade's peak at first, but the next few updates made it clear that the US woke up. It was once again time for Xenoblade fans to be nervous, but nothing was said and done yet. Yesterday, we saw Kingdom Hearts winning in the US but losing overall. It would not be impossible to see something similar here. Although today the lead was much smaller at this point. Still, 288 votes is a lot to turn around without rallies these times. Undertale set an all time record earlier in the contest by over 9000 votes, but that took an enormous rally. DKC2 would have to pull off the biggest non-rally comeback of the contest to do this. It didn't seem impossible at all, but it was slow. In an hour, DKC2 manages to erase 50 votes from the lead, but then Xenoblade actually starting building a little bit again for half an hour. You'd think that was the sign that the match was over if DKC2 couldn't manage a better attempt. Then in just a few updates, DKC2 removed 60 votes and was looking on pace to get back in the match, but randomly once again, it stopped. Xenoblade just stopped the comeback for almost an hour and the match stood still before DKC2 started moving again. Things looked great for DKC2 now, but still, this should be its hours to move and it sure wasn't going fast. Then we had everyone reassuring themselves by saying “Don't worry, Donkey Kong always chokes”. But DKC2 looked really good as we got closer to noon. It had a pace of removing roughly 100 votes in a hour here, which would be more than enough. Then as we got closer to noon, it slowed down but was still moving. At noon, Xenoblade was only 24 votes ahead and it seemed like a matter of time only before DKC2 took the lead. But man did Xenoblade stall from there. It refused to let go. When it was only 5 votes ahead, it randomly jumped to a 29 vote lead and people were all ready to celebrate and calling Donkey Kong a choke artist once more. Then the next update, it was mostly gone again, but man it was fun seeing the mood swings here. Most people were rooting for Xenoblade as that was the heavy bracket favorite. DKC2 actually has a recent prediction percentage for a \#3 seed. Casuals did better than us here though still got it wrong, but I guess if you don't know Donkey Kong's contest history, you'd have an easier time picking DKC2 here. Xenoblade had a 1 vote lead update before DKC2 took it for good. It wasn't moving fast at first, in fact it practically stood still for quite a while before it jumped up. Two hours later DKC2 had taken its lead to roughly 150 votes, but Xenoblade won updates. People kept telling themselves that Donkey Kong would choke this away. But no, DKC2 was at a solid steady pace. In less than half an hour more it was above 200 votes. This was easily its strongest time of the match. The afternoon. It slowed down after there and hovered around a 250 vote lead for a while. Then Xenoblade took its final shot at the match. DKC2 was at 280 votes, which would end up being its peak. Kind of funny how the loser has the biggest lead of the match today. But from there, Xenoblade would quickly cut down to a 227 vote lead. I'm being specific about this number because that was the vote different for three straight updates. DKC2 was scared here. After that, Xenoblade started cutting further, slowly. It got down to 174 and then stopped. It was a fluke, Xenoblade was out of this match. DKC2 quickly took its lead back above 200 and stayed at roughly the same for the rest of the match. It was over. People kept saying Donkey Kong would find a way to choke it, but he didn't. He's only in the title of the game after all, this game is all about Diddy Kong and today we learned that Diddy Kong doesn't choke. The victory is small, was highly due to Year of SNES and might very well say more about Xenoblade than DKC2, but it was a victory. DKC2 reached round 2 where it might just very well have another match! Donkey Kong's contest history has really messed with us I guess, maybe also that people wanted Xenoblade to have strength, but we should know from GotY it hadn't. I know GotY polls are to be taken lightly, but still, they're not useless. Why would a well-known SNES game lose to a cult favorite Wii game? It is weird that so many felt sure about that. I mean, I had Xenoblade here myself, but I didn't feel good about it and I actually had Fire Emblem to round 3. DKC2 and Xenoblade are very different games so they're hard to compare, but ignore the opponent and it's nice to see a game like DKC2 get a win on this site. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6087&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=37) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (6)Fire Emblem: Awakening vs (11)Super Mario Maker 2015 _source: (6)Fire Emblem: Awakening vs (11)Super Mario Maker 2015 (revid 84319)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Saturday**, November 14, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 5 - **Match \#:** 38 - **Match Date:** Saturday, November 14, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Fire Emblem: Awakening - 51.19% 59 for - 38 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Fire Emblem: Awakening - 65.26% It happens now and then that a debatable match isn't close at all. But a debatable match simply shouldn't nearly be a doubling, then you know you made a bad choice. Super Mario Maker disappointed big time here, but it makes sense. A bunch of people saw an opportunity to bash the Wii U here, and while being a very recent game and being on the Wii U clearly doesn't help, it's not all there is to it. Besides, Super Mario Maker might be the second most recent game in the bracket only coming before our winner, but Awakening is only from 2013 too. What matters here is that it's not really a new game. A good amount of people had Super Mario Maker winning here and it was well supported going as far as the division finals. The idea behind this is that its a collection of three very strong Mario games and NSMB. It's Mario fanservice and it has been relatively successful too. The thing is, it's not really a new game. It's cool, but it's something that hardcore fans that knows their coding could probably work out decently too. It doesn't feel like a game and it's certainly not a candidate for Best Game Ever either. It seems really weird that Super Mario Maker made it to the bracket of a Best Game Ever contest when Super Mario Bros didn't. I nominated it myself, but I didn't really expect anything of it. Awakening was always going to win here despite obviously not being worth much, but just being the right place in the bracket. The 3DS in general has a pretty awful contest. Pokemon XY and Monster Hunter 4 lost very badly and lost easily in a match people thought it could win respectively. A Link Between Worlds, which is very likely the strongest 3DS game there is didn't make the bracket. Awakening gave the 3DS some much needed support. It's weird, the 3DS is the second best received console of the current generation and managed close to nothing this contest. But then again, did the other consoles really do that. Picking Awakening to round 3 looked like a pretty good pick after today. It would only need to be ever so slightly stronger Xenoblade and why not? You hear better things about Xenoblade, but Fire Emblem is a more established franchise and Awakening is probably the most successful title from that franchise. We couldn't know just how weak Super Mario Maker was, only that it definitely was weak, so the round 2 match currently looked like it could go either way. ## Ctes's Analysis Ah yes, the match that cemented Super Mario Maker as Turd of the Contest. For some background here, one has to realize a few things. One, this entire eightpack was ripe for the taking. The case could be made for Xenoblade, Donkey Kong Country 2, Fire Emblem Awakening, Super Mario Maker, Banjo-Kazooe or Symphony of the Night all winning three matches. It was a nice jumbled mess of midcarders, any of which could have gone on a run and caught a bandwagon. I doubt any of them could have beaten Ocarina for the division title even with a bandwagon, but who really knows? We've seen Link lose in round 3 before. For Mario Maker's fourpack specifically, the entire reason people thought Mario Maker would do well is our new paradigm of rallies in contests. People are wise to these things now, and they knew Mario Maker would be a potential target. Mario Maker had everything in its favor: "IT'S FREAKING MARIO", a huge presence in social media, a huge internet buzz ever since it was released, a massive concentration of memes, an unbelievably easy contest path where it could potentially SFF two things and get a bandwagon rolling, and so on and so forth. Then it went out there and just completely shit the bed. It was everything just to not get doubled, and when you pair the game's potential with how it performed, you have to give it Turd of the Contest. Furthermore, a lot of us thought this game would boost the Mario series as a whole, when it might have done the opposite. 3 got rolled, 1 didn't even make the bracket, and we can't really guarantee World and 64 wouldn't have also gotten rolled by Pokemon had the Undertale rally not happened. They did give a very good showing against Undertale, for what it's worth, but you also have to look at the other side and realize Mario World was losing updates to Animal Crossing. I can't give a reason for this beyond a few educated guesses, but the best one is probably GameFAQs playing no game released after 2001 or so. Another good reason is Mario Maker is purely a social game, and let's not kid ourselves about the type of person that frequents this site or frequents the gaming hobby as a whole -- anti-social to the extreme. People complained all contest long about rallies and outsiders. Would socialites really complain about having a lot of new people around and new things doing well in our contests? No. This is nothing against Awakening, for the record. I love the game and I love the Fire Emblem series. Awakening did some very neat new things, made good use of the 3D, and Chrom was alright. The cast wasn't all that memorable when compared to 7 or 9, but I can't complain too much. My only real problem with the game is how unbelievably easy it was. You get a support going, and then everything is just setting up a choke point and going 2v1 in any fight. I'm sure the hard modes are berserk, but some of us enjoy the "normal" difficulty having a challenge as well. Dark Souls didn't get popular by giving people shortcuts. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6088&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=38) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (7)Banjo-Kazooie vs (10)Baldur's Gate II: Shadows of Amn 2015 _source: (7)Banjo-Kazooie vs (10)Baldur's Gate II: Shadows of Amn 2015 (revid 84320)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Saturday**, November 14, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 5 - **Match \#:** 39 - **Match Date:** Saturday, November 14, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Banjo-Kazooie - 61.01% 97 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Banjo-Kazooie - 69.06% Before this contest a lot of people were hyping Banjo-Kazooie up for a deep run, and why not? You had Xenoblade, Donkey Kong Country 2, Fire Emblem Awakening, Mario Maker, Banjo-Kazooie and Symphony of the Night all sitting there in one eightpack. any of them had a shot. Xenoblade and Mario Maker obviously lost in round 1, but Banjo-Kazooie was able to pull off a loss even in winning. Things started great, no doubt, when it had more than 70% of the vote early. That's the type of performance one would expect from a game looking to win three matches in a contest like this. You blow out the garbage early and keep it moving. But then it decided to go and lose 8% throughout the course of the day, against whatever the hell Baulder's Gate 2 is. These are joke trends, and to do it against a game no one on GameFAQs has heard of or cares about is awful. This thing didn't have a prayer of beating Symphony of the Night, a game with legitimate contest strength that's been doing this for years, after a performance like this. This was a terrible showing, and did not do much to prove that Banjo-Kazooie was actually some hidden powerhouse that was just hidden by SFF for all these years. ## Ctes's Analysis I really don't think there's anything noteworthy about this match. It went pretty much exactly as you'd expect. I mean, I'm sure Baldur's Gate has a little support, because Banjo sucks in contests, but while he's not the most interesting character, this game sure isn't lacking. This match also went completely ignored for most of the day because the other three matches were either really intense to follow or a surprisingly big blowout. There was nothing surprising about this. Banjo lived up to expectations, though I guess for the few people that believed we would see N64 games dominate and had Banjo advancing past SotN, this probably wasn't what they wanted to see. Not only did SotN get as close as it comes to tripling Trials and Tribulations, Banjo would need to exceed expectations in the first place to make the round 2 upset seem likely. At this point of the contest, we already knew that it was Year of the SNES and not Year of the N64 though, so I don't think even before these matches began, that anyone actually believed Banjo would advance more than once. Of course, if you had it in your bracket, you'd naturally defend it and search for reasons for why it could happen, but that's different than actually believing it will happen. Besides, a Year of the N64 would be a good year for the era in general so it's not like SotN wouldn't look stronger in such an event either. It was always a long-shot, but hey, crazy upsets do happen once in a while. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6089&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=39) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (2)Castlevania: Symphony of the Night vs (15)Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trials and Tribulations 2015 _source: (2)Castlevania: Symphony of the Night vs (15)Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trials and Tribulations 2015 (revid 84321)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Saturday**, November 14, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 5 - **Match \#:** 40 - **Match Date:** Saturday, November 14, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Castlevania: Symphony of the Night - 64.44% 97 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Castlevania: Symphony of the Night - 88.76% SUBTITLE WAR!! While Banjo-Kazooie was busy stinking up the joint, Symphony of the Night was out there proving it was the clear favorite in the Xenoblade/DKC2/Fire Emblem/Mario Maker/Banjo-Kazooie/Symphony of the Night brigade. Symphony of the Night put out the best performance in all of round 1 among this eightpack, and it was especially important given Banjo-Kazooie's massive percentage bleed. Symphony of the Night had never won two matches in a contest before, and the jinx was clearly about to end this year. It didn't even bother giving Phoenix Wright the typical Board 8 joke trend that Phoenix usually gets. This was just a merciless 75-25 beating right from the start, which in a way is a shame because Phoenix Wright 3 is by far the best game in that series. It doesn't have the best character -- that honor goes to Manfred von Karma -- but it's without a doubt the best of the games. I don't want to delve too far into spoilers here, but it has one of the best villains in gaming and is definitely worth a run if you like visual novels. This match was neat, because it's the biggest blowout Alucard or his game have ever given anything in these contests. Even if you look at fourways or that god-awful rivalry contest, this match right here was it. Symphony of the Night meant business this contest. ## Ctes's Analysis I think a lot of us were genuinely surprised to see Symphony of the Night receive a second seed. The other second seeds were either big names that came out after the last game contest or well established favorites in these contests. Symphony of the Night shouldn't be a \#2 seed based on strength probably, though it's very likely stronger than maybe three of the other \#2 seeds, four at the absolute most. Yet of all of them, Symphony of the Night was the most surprising \#2 seed. It was an \#11 seed in 2004, and while I know that contest had less entrants, failing to be worth much and with tons of newer contests coming since then, for it to somehow get a \#2 seed now is remarkable. We saw it in both the other contests it was eligible in, but losing a 60-40 match to GoldenEye didn't exactly make it shine and in 2009 it was caught in perhaps the strongest division, so getting second place in round 1 was probably lucky. This contest though, it had its time to shine. We weren't even expecting it to be worth much and yet it had a clear and easy path to the division finals. While that has a lot to do with extremely lucky bracket placement, it still made SotN stand out a little bit, so maybe we'll be thinking better of it next time. Symphony of the Night had a mostly predictable path, but this performance was really good. Ace Attorney is not worth much in these contests outside of the board vote, but the first one managed to look relatively good against Skyrim so for Trials and Tribulations to lose this badly here was not expected. They didn't look that far apart last time. Sure, Final Fantasy IX scored roughly the same on Trials and Tribulations as SotN did here, but Mario Kart Wii beat the first Ace Attorney, which is pretty much just as bad imo. And I know it likely took the Undertale rally spillover for Ace Attorney to avoid the doubling against Skyrim, but wouldn't we all expect Skyrim to easily beat SotN? The games shouldn't be that far apart, SotN looked incredible, that's all there is to it. If there was any doubt about SotN winning against Banjo next round, then it ended today, not because of Banjo disappointing, but because of SotN looking really legit. Lastly, here's something extra. When the bracket got delayed and SBAllen gave us hints about the games in return, one of his hints was that the longest title was 52 characters including spaces and everything. Paratroopa successfully figured that to be Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trials and Tribulations easily, so here's a little extra deserved credit for that impressive work. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6090&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=40) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past vs (16)Cave Story 2015 _source: (1)The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past vs (16)Cave Story 2015 (revid 84322)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Sunday**, November 15, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 6 - **Match \#:** 41 - **Match Date:** Sunday, November 15, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: A Link to the Past - 84.72% 96 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zelda: A Link to the Past - 95.43% I feel like I just posted this list not too long ago, but here it is again. The "laughable blowouts" list: The two Zelda titans put out championship-caliber performances in round 1 of this contest, but to get a laughable blowout you need the right opponent. For all we know Cave Story might have been bandwagoned in a different spot, but as-is it was simply destined to join contest legends like Tanner and Madden. It did manage to avoid being last place in the stats though, so there's that. ## Ctes's Analysis Here we have the second biggest blowout of the contest and thus a short write-up. A Link to the Past was one of the contenders for second strongest game on out site pre-rally and it certainly looked today like it might just be that, but it's also possible Cave Story is just that weak. However, with this being Year of SNES, A Link to the Past might just have gotten the push it needed to possible threaten Final Fantasy VII and RBY for the title, though Chrono Trigger would still rival it. Of all the games that could possibly be the second strongest game, A Link to the Past was the only one put in the bottom half of the bracket, so we wouldn't really get to know. On one hand, it's a bit of a shame, because it would be nice to see just where it stood compared to the other contenders. But on the other hand, it's kind of nice that we avoid as much Zelda domination as possible, but putting the three strongest of them as close as they could get by their seeding. Some games are gonna get wasted to them, but that can never be completely avoided. It wouldn't be an issue if we had contests more often though. Then we could easily have this now and then set up Chrono Trigger vs. Link to the Past rematch next time or something, but you never know when next time will be. As for Cave Story, celebrate fans of the game, your game made it in. I'd say waste of a spot, but it's nice if you really like the game to just see it in. I know the feeling, as I had it when Jet Set Radio made the bracket in 2010 as a \#16 seed, even if it suffered perhaps the worst loss of the contest to Resident Evil 4, not as the biggest blowout, but by not winning in any single part of the world anywhere, despite how many places we only get like one vote from. It's nice to see your game get representation. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6091&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=41) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (8)Deus Ex vs (9)Final Fantasy IV 2015 _source: (8)Deus Ex vs (9)Final Fantasy IV 2015 (revid 84323)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Sunday**, November 15, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 6 - **Match \#:** 42 - **Match Date:** Sunday, November 15, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy IV - 64.30% 96 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Final Fantasy IV - 63.46% "And remember, it's all just a big popularity contest, and we all know that the actual Best. Game. Ever. is Final Fantasy IV." -Allen Always nice seeing fellow FF4 fans around. I loved it the first time I played it, and still love it now. The DS version was awesome, and it was nice actually playing a JRPG with real difficulty. I know the SNES version was tough, but the DS version just beats the shit out of you all game long. Those fire dog things when you reach the Tower of Zot just wiping your entire party out in one attack is a great experience. I know that sounds weird to most people, but JRPGs are notoriously easy and I enjoy the ones that are actually hard. I also love the neat little extras in the DS version, like giving your party Bless or the new game plus mode. I do have to ask though why FF4 has been released so many damn times. There's a DS version, the SNES version, a Game Boy Advance version, multiple mobile versions, a PSP version, a freaking sequel that got released on multiple platforms, and even a Steam version. Holy jumping jesus. 800 versions of FF4, yet it took this long to remake Final Fantasy 7? Okay. This match was some great karma for that awful Rock Band match where the Deus Ex fans sat around whining for 24 hours about how their game wasn't winning by enough. Final Fantasy 4 beat the karma out of this poll and did us all a favor by taking out the trash in a 70-30 rout right off the bat. I know Deus Ex is a good game, but that Rock Band nonsense means I'm rooting for a massive blowout every time this thing is in a poll. The board really was that bad that day. Good riddance to Deus Ex in this contest and good riddance to those fans. ## Ctes's Analysis There was never any contest here. I'll always remember Deus Ex for contributing to the tradition of a second match upset back in 2010 against Rock Band, even if I don't really understand why that was an upset looking back. Guess Deus Ex was just expected to be really weak. I mean, it is weak, but we expected worse of it. This time, it was never any contest. Final Fantasy IV has one of the saddest paths of the contest in that it got to draw A Link to the Past in round 2, while it could easily have some fun matches elsewhere. It's definitely not among the top Final Fantasy games strength wise, but it'd be cool to see just where it places against VIII or Tactics maybe. It's Year of SNES, I think it has tons of potential, though if you're tired of your favorite games disappointing against SNES games then we at least have one title here that got wasted.  Oh, and according to SBAllen, we have the real Best Game Ever right here in this match, which is Final Fantasy IV. Not important for anything, but since fun to include and considering what this match was, this is the best place to do so. He mentioned it in a post contest topic that mostly included Undertale talk. It's a solid choice and a good 2D RPG, so I can get behind it. Personally like VI more though.  ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6092&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=42) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain vs (12)Perfect Dark 2015 _source: (5)Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain vs (12)Perfect Dark 2015 (revid 84324)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Sunday**, November 15, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 6 - **Match \#:** 43 - **Match Date:** Sunday, November 15, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Metal Gear Solid V - 60.38% 97 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Metal Gear Solid V - 77.32% The biggest thing we heard during Undertale's run is that the game was too new to win a contest called "Best Game Ever". While this is an opinion people are allowed to have (and one I thoroughly disagree with, since you don't need an arbitrary shelf life to be good), where was the outcry against Metal Gear Solid 5 and Witcher 3 making the bracket? What about Life is Strange, Super Mario Maker, Bloodborne, Splatoon, or any other game from 2015 that might have gotten in? Where's the outcry about those games? Oh, right, almost all of them were either fodder or too weak to matter, so complaining about those doesn't fit the arbitrary agenda. David Sirlin wrote a fantastic series of articles called Playing to Win, that I suggest everyone take an afternoon to read: In the series, Sirlin calls those who don't play to win scrubs, and more or less said that tournament play is the only gameplay that truly matters. Scrubs like to make up hidden rules in their own mind to justify their own way of doing anything competitive. This caused a lot of panties to get twisted when he first said it, and it still causes arguments today. All the people who defended Brawl's gameplay over Melee's because "lol tournament players", for instance, are obvious scrubs (side note: this contest far and away proved what gamers actually prefer on the whole, but we'll get to that as we discuss Melee's run). Playing to win versus playing for fun is an argument people love to have, but they don't understand that the "playing for fun" side is objectively wrong. They don't win tournaments, they don't win money, and they almost never taken into account when balance patches happen. There's a reason for that. All those people who pick and choose which rallies are "allowed"? Scrubs. The people who whined about Undertale being too new to have contest success? Scrubs. The people who hated Melee's rally against Chrono Trigger, then cheered like mad two rounds later? HUGE collection of scrubs. When I say you're either all or none with rallies, this is where I'm coming from mentally. These contests are meant to be competitive and win prizes. If you make up fake rules to justify something not in the official rules, you are a contest scrub in the same arena as those who don't understand what playing to win actually means. The only way you can have a for-fun contest is if no prizes are offered. Until then, these contests fall under the playing-to-win umbrella. To my point for this particular match. There was no complaining that MGS5 came out and proved it had no contest strength to speak of. There was no outcry that it made the bracket. Nope, just 24 hours of LOL MGS5 when it was only able to get 55% on Perfect Dark. This is a little unfair for a couple reasons, the biggest of which is that it's just disrespectful to Perfect Dark. That game is awesome, and using it to pretend MGS5 is some joke is ridiculous. It's won a contest match before, and might be able to beat Call of Duty 4 now if those two had a rematch. The other is that MGS5 being weak really isn't 5's fault. It's Konami's for being idiotic. We'll discuss that more in round 2, but for now I'm just happy it won a contest match.. Probably the only one I'll ever get to see it win. ## Ctes's Analysis Back when Metal Gear Solid 4 came out, it boosted the franchise as a whole a ton and MGS4 itself went crazy in the following contest. I don't think anyone expected that much here, but something was to be expected. It was fair to assume that the series would've gotten some kind of boost, even if small and even more fair to assume that the latest entry in the series would have some strength. At this point, we had only seen one of the games in action, but man did that game flop. I know Kingdom Hearts II was the favorite in that match, but that had a lot to do with us expecting it to not have dropped at all and knowing it was a strong entry. We didn't expect the it to be that big a victory though. MGS4 was the first warning that the series has dropped big. Now, Metal Gear Solid V can't really drop, but it can certainly not live up to out expectations. It would never get past A Link to the Past obviously, but it didn't need to be that big to reach round 3. Perfect Dark is not really strong at all, which is shame, because it's a lot better than GoldenEye imo and that game is decently strong. Dark Souls is recent too, and while it's not bad, it should be possible to get past it for a mainline Metal Gear Solid title. That didn't look likely today. Metal Gear Solid V won this match, but it wasn't going into round 2 as the favorite. This was not an impressive performance. Perfect Dark repeats what it did in 2004. Making the game that beat it looking like a lock to lose in round 2. Had this year looked hot for N64 games in particular, MGSV might've looked fine, but that's not the case. Not to mentioned if this was a hot year for N64 games, MGSV could've gotten a real scare here and maybe even lose the match. This is one of the few times a new game beat an old in a close match, but it wasn't expected to be this close. That said, I'm not even sure Metal Gear Solid V disappointing has that much to do with it being recent. It's a well-established franchise and a well received game. Had the series not fallen in general, MGSV would probably be looking a lot better. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6093&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=43) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (4)Dark Souls vs (13)Sid Meier's Civilization V 2015 _source: (4)Dark Souls vs (13)Sid Meier's Civilization V 2015 (revid 84325)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Sunday**, November 15, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 6 - **Match \#:** 44 - **Match Date:** Sunday, November 15, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Dark Souls - 64.70% 96 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Dark Souls - 83.88% When I first saw the bracket I almost picked Civ 5 to pull the upset, but that's because I'm dumb and haven't played the Dark Souls series yet. Outside of FLOWCHART™ reasons, Dark Souls could very well be the most popular modern series in gaming. Gamers absolutely revere the series for being mercilessly old-school, and in a gaming world with checkpoints every 2 seconds and linear everything, Dark Souls decides to not give a crap and just chops your balls off whenever possible. Gamers rewarded this by giving Dark Souls the easy doubling over Civilization 5, and it was rather obvious after round 1 that MGS5 was completely screwed in round 2. There was no way it had a prayer of beating this game. It's fun to think about how far Dark Souls could have gone if it was in Division 7 or 8, but alas. ## Ctes's Analysis I don't think anyone doubted who the winner would be here, but the match served as a decent indicator for whether or not Dark Souls would have a chance at upsetting MGSV in round 2. The other match probably says a whole lot more, but we hadn't yet actually seen Dark Souls in these contests and upset wouldn't only require a MGSV disappointment, it would also require Dark Souls showing some strength. Civilization V would obviously be really darn weak. IV was in the last contest and lost to Persona 3, it wouldn't take much, but if Dark Souls couldn't score somewhat big on Civilization V here, then it probably wouldn't have what it took to take advantage of a weakened Metal Gear Solid series against its latest entry. It did however score big. A doubling is pretty good here. Dark Souls is a new game too, and I feel like we took its strength for granted. All debates about the upcoming match with MGSV were about the strength of MGSV, not Dark Souls. Dark Souls fit well with our expectations, but I don't really feel like it was any guarantee. It's nice to see a recent game do well though, just because it's not that common and Dark Souls is a really darn game too. People complain about games being easy today, despite most non-Nintendo games giving you a choice of difficulty, but if you want a challenge, this is the kind of game you wanna play and it's lots of fun! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6094&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=44) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Super Metroid vs (14)Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare 2015 _source: (3)Super Metroid vs (14)Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare 2015 (revid 84326)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Monday**, November 16, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 6 - **Match \#:** 45 - **Match Date:** Monday, November 16, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Metroid - 66.34% 98 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Metroid - 76.28% There were a lot of blowouts in round 1, but not many were more important than this one. Given Metroid's contest history, a lot of people were very down on the series as a whole, and were treating it almost as badly as the Big 10 got treated in the years after Chris Leak's Florida Gators beat the hell out of Ohio State in the 2007 BCS title game. Or in contest terms, it was on par with the decline of Chrono Trigger characters. People did not have faith in the Metroid series. To shake a stigma like that, one has to win, at least do damn well in losing. Metroid's reputation is rather well-earned. It'll do reasonably well in a contest until running into Mario or Zelda, then get SFFd into the absolute ground. Some famous examples: (all it took was a game named "Mario" in the poll, any game, to cause Metroid Prime to get third place!) It's gotten so bad that even Pokemon can cause Samus or her games to lose these days. But if there was one contest where Metroid could cause some damage, it was a contest called "Best Game Ever" where the voters were clearly taking the contest name into account and favoring the 1990s. Super Metroid pops up on any objective list talking of the best games ever made, so this was really the time to shine. And boy did it ever. I know Call of Duty is a hated-beyond-belief series on GameFAQs, but it has done some stuff in polls here. It finished second place in our Game of the Year voting in 2007, Modern Warfare 2 actually won Game of the Year in 2009, and got to round 3 in the 2009 Best Game Ever contest in spite of facing multiple Nintendo games. It might have gotten a round farther with a better draw, too. Then in Game of the Decade, it beat Prince of Persia in round 1, then got 55% on Perfect Dark in round 2 (which seems relevant given how MGS5 did in this very 2015 contest: ), then got 31% on Melee. Call of Duty 4, much as we hate it, is not some joke here. So to go out and just get absolutely fucking murdered by Super Metroid says a whole lot about Super Metroid's contest strength. Remember, we had so little faith in it that we thought it would win this match before getting SFFd into the ground by Galaxy. Then this happened while Galaxy was sitting there looking rather pedestrian against Dragon Age, and reality set in. Mario Galaxy, in one of the biggest twists of fate ever, would have to rely on Reverse SFF to beat Super Metroid. Because there was no way one could look at these round 1 results and think it was indirectly the stronger game. ## Ctes's Analysis I feel like this is one of the most remarkable results of the whole round. Obviously, the winner was never in doubt, but for Super Metroid to score nearly 80% here was insane. It's likely a mix of two things. Call of Duty has got to have fallen a lot. This is the same game that beat Perfect Dark before breaking 30% on Super Smash Bros. Melee. Then you simply don't go ahead and only barely break 20% on Super Metroid. Melee is a top 10 game on this site even before rallies. Even if you expect a Call of Duty drop, this is insane. It's completely crazy to think a Call of Duty game won GotY in 2009 too, it seems like an impossible task today. In the Game of the 00's poll following it even beat lots of near elites here finishing only behind FFX and RE4. That said, the poll was basically a load of Nintendo games leeching each other causing the few non-Nintendo titles to do really well. But Call of Duty still outperformed San Andreas and got close to RE4, and while San Andreas often disappoints here it sure wouldn't get this low on Super Metroid. It's only been five years since this game got 30% on Melee too, how far can you drop so fast? Somewhat far is the answer, but not this far. The other thing is that Super Metroid had new found strength here. Or perhaps it was just its first change to show it, because it got destroyed by A Link to the Past in both contests. In 2004, it did put up solid numbers on Phantasy Star IV, but then almost got tripled by A Link to the Past and despite there being SFF, that wasn't exactly a good showing. Then in 2009 it went neck to neck with Super Mario Kart the first two rounds and had just a few more votes both times. In round three it bit the dust. It looked leagues behind A Link to the Past SFF taken into consideration. It didn't look leagues behind A Link to the Past today though. I think perhaps A Link to the Past SFF'd Super Metroid more than we thought back then, but I also think Super Metroid has new found strength, because this is insane. It truly is Year of SNES, but of all the impressive SNES games, I think only Chrono Trigger's boost rivals the boost of Super Metroid between now and 2009. Pre-contest, Super Mario Galaxy was the favorite to reach round 3 here and there was good reason to pick it to. After this match, Super Metroid started becoming the favorite. Call of Duty drop happened yeah, but it's not enough to explain this result. At this point, it seemed very unlikely to see a Wii game beat SNES a game, especially a SNES game of this strength. Had it been DKC2, sure, but Super Metroid redeemed itself this contest. Practically, the only thing Super Metroid had to worry about would be the Nintendo hierarchy doing its work again in another Mario\>Samus match. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6095&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=45) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (6)Super Mario Galaxy vs (11)Dragon Age: Origins 2015 _source: (6)Super Mario Galaxy vs (11)Dragon Age: Origins 2015 (revid 84327)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Monday**, November 16, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 6 - **Match \#:** 46 - **Match Date:** Monday, November 16, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Mario Galaxy - 61.69% 98 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Mario Galaxy - 70.95% Under normal circumstances, Mario Galaxy nearly doubling Dragon Age would be a solid result. Dragon age got 30% in the final of our 2009 Game of the Year voting, got 31% on Twilight Princess in Game of the Decade after winning a match, and Inquisition finished second place in the Game of the Year voting in 2015 (technically 2014, but the actual voting happens in January so we just call it by the actual year the poll happens). Thw Twilight Princess number seems awful, but I included it to show that 31% on Twilight Princess a few years ago and 36% on Mario Galaxy is a pretty comparable number, and is a fine result for Galaxy vis-a-vis the Game of the Decade performance. The problem here is that IT'S FREAKING SUPER METROID was putting 80% on Call of Duty 4 while this poll was going on. It became very obvious, and very quickly, that Super Metroid was a massive favorite headed into that round 2 match. The only reason any of us even doubted it at this point was the IT'S FREAKING MARIO factor. People might try saying in retrospect that it should have been obvious the whole time, but we have nearly a decade of evidence that shows Samus choking harder than a porn star at a casting call the second she's up against Nintendo. This was the first contest where she bothered proving herself. It's not even that Galaxy did badly, Super Metroid was just on steroids. ## Ctes's Analysis At this point people were bashing Mario for his two losses. Super Mario World was even laughed at for allowing Animal Crossing to fight even during the Undertale rally. People were practically ready to laugh at Super Mario Galaxy before this match began. And despite Super Metroid turning out to be a lot stronger than we thought at that same time as this match, it was already clear today that if Galaxy lost next round, it'd be laughed at too. Galaxy was doing what you'd expect of it today. If you assume there was a little SFF between it Twilight Princess in 2010, then this is pretty much exactly what Galaxy was expected to do today. So unless you believe both games have fallen equally, there is really no reason to call Mario a turd, but that also wasn't happening that much before next round. Galaxy did well enough, but with Super Metroid's performance it was in big trouble next round. Galaxy would have to take good advantage of the somewhat established Nintendo hierarchy that says Zelda \> Mario \> Samus \> the rest with Pokemon ignoring everything. Super Metroid was clearly the stronger game now, it just hadn't managed to ever look impressive before. Hope was not lost for Super Mario Galaxy due to the hierarchy and that Call of Duty truly was weak, but it wasn't looking good. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6096&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=46) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (7)Bloodborne vs (10)Final Fantasy XII 2015 _source: (7)Bloodborne vs (10)Final Fantasy XII 2015 (revid 84328)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Monday**, November 16, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 6 - **Match \#:** 47 - **Match Date:** Monday, November 16, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy XII - 56.88% 94 for - 5 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Final Fantasy XII - 42.07% When the contest got delayed for legal reasons, Allen was nice enough to spoil two matches for us just to get our anticipation going. One of the spoilers was New Vegas vs BioShock Infinite. The other was this match. This match felt like it was a perfect candidate for the FLOWCHART™! Two games of relatively close strength, that few people care about outside of a contest setting. Yep, perfect time to consult the FLOWCHART™. Nintendo \> Squaresoft \> Japanese RPG \> Japanese \> RPG \> old \> new \> contest experience \> top option \> everything else. "Squaresoft" is clearly higher on the totem pole than "Japanese", ergo Final Fantasy 12 was the favorite! We all knew as much the second the match was spoiled, too, even though the games that fall under the Hidetaka Miyazaki umbrella (Demon's Souls, Dark Souls, Bloodborne, et al) come with a huge amount of respect. Dark Souls seems to be the only one with any real contest strength for whatever reason, because while Final Fantasy 12 is a game of decent strength, the literal only reason it won this game is because "Final Fantasy" is on the title. The poll may have been 55-45, but it was 55-45 for 24 hours straight and hardly had any drama to it. I'm sure Bloodborne is a fantastic game since everything under the Miyazaki label is great, but can I defend FF12 for a second? Yes, the plot is trash for 90% of the game. Yes, Vaan is trash. But it's meant to be a Metal Gear Solid 2 perspective where you look at the characters who are actually good through the eyes of a character that's meant to be annoying. Vaan and Penelo are a a nod to the days of royalty where following Ashe without question upon being asked is exactly what would have happened in the old days. Vaan and Penelo don't really need a ton of character development. That was all meant for the other characters. The plot does manage to get good once you meet the Occuria, and thankfully the gameplay is good enough to get you to that point in an entertaining manner. Yes, the gameplay is good in spite of gambits. The whole point is that you can customize them, so if you hate them just do what I did and set it to auto-battle the closest enemy while you manually handle everything else. Done and done. The graphics are about the best you'll get on the PS2, and they are gorgeous. The atmosphere in this game is amazing. And the Pharos Lighthouse. Holy crap, talk about a dungeon worthy of the old school. that thing takes zero prisoners, and it isn't some optional area. You're supposed to climb in the main plot, bitch. Let's not forget that the hunts are the best optional content in the entire Final Fantasy series (no joke, I actually do believe this). Talking about FF12 makes me want to replay it, but I'm waiting for the inevitable HD rerelease of the international version. If FFX can get 28 rereleases, I'm positive Final Fantasy 12 can get one. I don't ask for much! ## Ctes's Analysis There is no doubt in mind here that Bloodborne is better received game overall of the two. When SBAllen pre-contest hinted that there would be eight Final Fantasy games in the bracket, I predicted them all right except for having XIII instead of XII, but once he said they equaled 56Tactics, I wasn't surprised to figure out I had that one wrong. It's just that this game was frowned upon a lot. There is also no doubt in my mind that when it comes to contest strength, FFXII is step below the other seven games in this contest. Additionally, there is no doubt in my mind that I find Bloodborne to be the far better game here, and finally, there was no doubt in mind that FFXII would win this. When you consider that casuals and other websites still go “Final Fantasy always wins”, I'm actually quite a bit surprised the casuals had this one wrong. I know that the phase is moslty associated with FFVII, but it's not limited to. I guess casuals also underestimated the power of NostalgiaFAQs, because that's the real reason Bloodborne lost this one. Recent games simply wont to well here barring outside rallies. It's not like they can't win a match or maybe even two, but put against a game that isn't fodder and is before its own time, a game from the current generation will sadly almost always lose. It didn't matter that FFXII hasn't been that well received, we knew that having Final Fantasy in the name would be enough to give it the edge here, because it has been around for longer. When this match was over, Final Fantasy had officially managed an 8-0 against its competition in the first round. It's very impressive! Although personally, FFIX vs. Kingdom Hearts was the only one I didn't think would be a safe win for Final Fantasy. Unfortunately, such a streak just means that casuals will keep believing this site will support Final Fantasy above anything not named Zelda. Sure it's a strong franchise, but it really isn't true anymore. It's close to 12 years since Final Fantasy VII won the games contest following up on Cloud's victory. Each year since then, it has looked worse, except for the 2007 finale where Cloud held up like a king. In 2008, Cloud and Sephiroth lost to Snake with Sephiroth being swallowed up by Kirby afterward. Vincent couldn't defeat Crono once again. Squall lost to Mewtwo and Tidus lost to WCC from round 1. Then Zack looks good and the rest gets ignored. 2010 was highlighted by Snake beating Sephiroth and let's not forget Tidus embarrassed himself once again, but Cloud still reached the finale. Final Fantasy X was the favorite in GotD and it didn't win. Cloud and Sephiroth lost to the Pokemon trainers in Rivalry Rumble. Then there's 2013, oh god 2013. Where Aerith loses to Shepard, Tidus to Missingno, Vincent loses to Mewtwo and Phoenix Wright of all people, L-Block beats Auron, even Sephiroth falld to Mewtwo and Cloud falls to Squirtle. Yet a Vivi victory against Mario was probably enough to keep the Final Fantasy always wins phase alive, or Draven just overshadowed it completely. But there is no reason for it to exist. Yet a match like this will sadly fuel it. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6097&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=47) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (2)The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask vs (15)Valkyria Chronicles 2015 _source: (2)The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask vs (15)Valkyria Chronicles 2015 (revid 84329)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Monday**, November 16, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 6 - **Match \#:** 48 - **Match Date:** Monday, November 16, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: Majora's Mask - 78.95% 99 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zelda: Majora's Mask - 89.29% Valkyria Chronicles is one of those games KP has told me to play that I haven't gotten around to yet, so obviously it's a 10/10 title that I'll gush over for years and years once I finally play the game. KP is a boss like that. The problem is it was up against Majora's Mask in round 1, so it was destined to get its ass handed to it immediately in this contest. Seeded tournaments do need their 15 and 16 seeds, after all, so it is what it is. Only one 1 seed has ever lost in round 1 (the legendary Starcraft \> Halo upset), and only a select few 2 seeds have ever lost in round 1 of a 1v1 contest. I suppose 24% on Majora's Mask isn't that bad given this is the Game of the Decade we're talking about, but it's not like "massive blowout" is all that much ahead of "legendary blowout". For those who want a full list of 2 seeds that have lost 1v1 in round 1: (7)Diablo \> (2)Ridley in the villains contest (7)Master Hand \> (2)Kuja in the villains contest (7)Pac-Man \> Revolver Ocelot in summer 2005 (7)Sub-Zero \> (2)Master Chief in summer 2006 (15)The Boss \> (2)Nathan Drake in winter 2010 (7)Big Boss/The Boss \> (2)Tidus/Jecht in the rivalry rumble Majora's Mask's placement in this bracket was just a crime, by the way. Wind Waker, Twilight Princess, and Ocarina all got their own "I'm the only Zelda in here" division, yet Majora's Mask and Link to the Past have to be paired up? Man. If this was done to prevent all the Zelda games from rolling over the bracket then cool, but why give 3 of the games their own division then? It seemed obvious we would get a pointless LTTP \> Majora division final, when Majora probably could have had a Final Four run elsewhere. Not that the journey wouldn't be really interesting anyway, but we'll get to that. ## Ctes's Analysis Well, on a day where the other three matches gave us plenty of things to discuss, you can't really complain about the last one being really boring. I'm actually quite surprised to see Valkyria Chronicles again, it won a match surprisingly in 2010 before getting tripled by Brawl, so I guess it could have a chance in a similar fortunate matchup. It doesn't look like it dropped that much. Majora's Mask was interesting to follow because everyone expected the 2010 stats to overrate it a lot. It's really easy to compare because Majora's Mask beat Brawl in the finals last time, and Brawl beat Valkyria Chronicles. Brawl won by slightly more than this and the consensus was Brawl looked bad, but I guess Valkyria Chronicles isn't that bad. If you believe that Majora slightly overperformed in its final two matches and wouldn't have won them if Ocarina of Time was in the contest, well, then it adds up very nicely. It's nice seeing the stats be pretty much correct and Majora's Mask was one of the best games at verifying previous stats this contest. At this point, it was just expected to take its predictable path to the division finals and bow out to the stronger Zelda game. I mean, being a OoT proxy did make a few people believe it could win the division, but that was never going to happen. With Majora lining up well with the contest it won, at least no one had any idea of the scare it was in for in round 3 yet. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6098&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=48) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Grand Theft Auto V vs (16)Shenmue 2015 _source: (1)Grand Theft Auto V vs (16)Shenmue 2015 (revid 84330)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Tuesday**, November 17, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 7 - **Match \#:** 49 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, November 17, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Grand Theft Auto V - 67.00% 96 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Grand Theft Auto V - 84.99% This match was the first of a hilarious eightpack in this contest. It featured two GTA games, Oblivion, SMRPG, World of Warcraft, and Chrono Cross. To me the obvious winner of this eightpack was the winner of Oblivion/SMRPG, but that didn't mean we couldn't have a lot of fun with the other stuff. Our best chance at getting a 1 seed upset in round 1 of this contest was in this match. The 1 seeds in this contest were Chrono Trigger, Final Fantasy 6, Super Mario Bros. 3, Skyrim, Ocarina of Time, Link to the Past, Grand Theft Auto 5, and Metal Gear Solid. One of those things was clearly not like the others, and the right opponent could have thoroughly embarrassed GTA5. Had Phoenix Wright been in Shenmue's place, it's highly possible GTA5 could have lost this match. As-is GTA5 was still embarrassed, but it at least got to win a match. Shenmue only sold 1.2 million copies, and I say "only" because the game cost something like 60 million dollars to make and was considered a commercial failure by all accounts. Not that this stopped a group of lunatics to start a complete cult following fanbase for the game, and recently the Shenmue 3 kickstarter raised more than 6 million dollars. How such a bust got all these fans is beyond me, but that's gaming for you. Meanwhile, GTA5 has sold something like 55 million copies to date, and was by far the fastest-selling entertainment product of any venture (TV, video game, movie, you name it). You can seriously make the argument that GTA5 is the biggest success in the history of entertainment, at least financially, which is just wild to think about when you consider things like Game of Thrones, Breaking Bad, the NFL, Casablanca, the Thriller album, or anything else. GTA5 has actually been spoken of on those kinds of lists for financial success. Even Forbes has talked about it. So naturally, GameFAQs despises the GTA series and loves Shenmue. Shenmue actually had GTA5 under 60% for a time, before GTA5 ultimately recovered to get 62% in the final poll. It was an easy win, but hardly becoming of a 1 seed and was surefire proof of impending doom in round 2. It was also one of the best 38% losses you'll ever see in a contest, because GTA5 got thoroughly exposed here. Not that any of us thought GTA5 would be worth anything anyway, but to do this badly against such fodder is really something else. It's worth noting that before this match, Shenmue the game had never broken 30% on anything and Ryo Hazuki's lone contest win was against Guybrush Threepwood. In 2002. Grand Theft Auto sucks. ## Ctes's Analysis Okay, this is how you disappoint greatly as a \#1 seed. I mean, we all knew that GTAV was the weakest \#1 seed before the contest began and it was the board favorite to lose in round 2 no matter what game it faced. We all knew that GTA would as always be a place where we could embarrass the casuals without even thinking about it. We also all knew that it probably only even got the \#1 seed because reviews and stuff matter. But goddamn, this is worse than I expected of it. It's facing a Dreamcast exclusive, how much more terrible can you get? If there was any doubt whatsoever that GATV was a goner in round 2, it stopped here. It's an awful performance that you can't even blame old\>new for. Shenmue is still turbo fodder. Last contest it lost 80-20 to Twilight Princess, that's how bad it is. SBAllen himself taking GTAV to win the division shows that there are some things he just never learns while doing these contests, but whatever. Now, back to the thing about Shenmue appearing in these contests before. I know I complained a lot about this already, but this is the time to complain about it only rivaled by the pre-contest write-up. How in the world can you look at a Dreamcast exclusive that got trashed last contest and think that it would make a better addition that the most legendary video games there is, Super Mario Bros. I don't know if Allen still thinks it's really weak here and would lose to the likes of Halo 1, but that doesn't even matter. Allen said the original Super Mario Bros and The Legend of Zelda were some of the final cuts, meaning he literally chose Shenmue above them. I respect new entrants making the bracket even if we probably know they'll flop. What's the point of Shenmue returning? Had it gotten a much higher seed sure, but you simply don't put in it in this situation. Sure, it had the function of making GTAV look bad, but any game could've done that. Can you imagine how excellent it would've looked to have this matchup? \(1\) Grand Theft Auto V (16) Super Mario Bros That's something I would absolutely love. And I know Super Mario Bros would easily win this match, but it would've had an exciting path. It would probably do the same as Super Mario RPG, but it'd be amazing seeing the original SMB do that, it's a game literally everyone respects, except Allen seemingly, but who else would even mind? And if the idea of excluding most Nintendo and Square from the bottom two divisions were to make something else look good, then just switch Super Mario Bros into another division with one of the other \#16 seeds. Although, it was a Square game with Nintendo characters that won the bottom quarter anyway, so it's not like it matters much. I have nothing against the game at all, it's really good, but Shenmue had absolutely no business being in this contest whatsoever. I promise this is the final time I'll go rambling about Super Mario Bros being excluded from the bracket, but I have to go all out this time, because this is the matchup that actually pissed me off. I understand the idea of giving a bunch of different franchises representation in the bracket, but it makes sense for the Mario franchise to be represented more than anything else, both in terms of quality and quantity. And if the issue is too many Mario games, Super Mario Bros is not the game you exclude. If no one cared for it, then that'd be different, but it was in the top 100 nominations! I simply can't understand the idea that recent games are more deserving of being here in a contest called Best Game Ever. That means of all time. It's not Best Game Today. And Super Mario Bros might've been made pretty obsolete by SMB3, which came out ages ago, but it's influence and status should remain. It deserved the spot. Shenmue did not deserve a second chance. With that, let's leave the case be, I'm finally done complaining. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6099&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=49) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (8)The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion vs (9)Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars 2015 _source: (8)The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion vs (9)Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars 2015 (revid 84331)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Tuesday**, November 17, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 7 - **Match \#:** 50 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, November 17, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Mario RPG - 55.39% 87 for - 8 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Mario RPG - 51.72% This was without a doubt the most important round 1 match in the history of our contests, at least when it pertains to pre-contest hype actually mattering. Often we'll argue over 1 point matches that don't ultimately matter, or maybe a fourpack. Occasionally we'll get a cool half division where everything is lumped together. For this match, the hype was 100% warranted and everyone knew it. Whichever game won this poll was a lock to win three matches total, and perhaps even go past that if a bandwagon got going. The Resident Evil 4 upset wasn't really entertained until mid-contest, but we all knew this match was worth 7 points bare minimum. The winner of this match would get GTA5, which was a guaranteed win. We're smart enough to know how GTA works on this site. Then in round 3, it would see either World of Warcraft, San Andreas, or perhaps even Chrono Cross. Any of those three games is an easy win for Oblivion or SMRPG. Makes no difference which. For that reason, getting this match right was absolutely necessary for anyone looking to win this contest. Both games had amazing cases to win this match, and both were exceptionally close in past x-stats. The stats were somewhat reliable, too, since Mario RPG proved in two different contests that it either resists SFF well or outright doesn't get SFFd at all. Look at these two polls: Those are ridiculous numbers given what SMRPG was sharing the poll with, and was perhaps the biggest indicator of SMRPG's true strength. One could very easily make the case that SMRPG would be a top 10 game in contest strength if it were ever released in Europe, which we'll get to in a sec. The much simpler argument was how close Thousand-Year Door got to Oblivion in Game of the Decade, and how SMRPG should easily be able to make up a 5% difference: On the Oblivion side, it entirely came down to whether or not Skyrim boosted the series. If there was any boost to speak of, Oblivion would theoretically win with ease since the games were even in the stats. Its run in 2009 was no joke, and getting 44% on Wind Waker after winning two matches is also impressive. But in one of the weirdest twists of fate in contest history, a big-time series release actually devalued a series. Before Skyrim: After Skyrim: Skyrim didn't render Oblivion irrelevant, but it didn't help it either. When you pair that with other intangibles -- Mario RPG being everything GameFAQs likes in one package, Western RPG love being relatively new here, this contest potentially having old games embarrass new games in a fair bracket, Nintendo AND Square in one package, the "4" polls showing Skyrim not actually boosting the Elder Scrolls series, Nintendo rarely losing debatable matches, the FLOWCHART™, et al -- Mario RPG was a slight favorite going into this match. It's a shame the match itself didn't live up to the very worthy hype, because this really deserved to be a barn-burner, photo finish type of match. This contest was pretty short on those types of matches in all honestly, but that doesn't mean this was a bad contest at all. It was rather nice being able to unwind for the last few hours, in truth. As for the match itself, Mario RPG wrecked face in the board vote and stayed above 60% for nearly an hour. Mario RPG would bleed a lot of percentage overnight, but Oblivion never made a true push to actually win the match and would ultimately stay at 46% all day. It was a disappointing match for Oblivion when it could have potentially made the Final Four had it won this match, but those are the breaks sometimes. The only reason Mario RPG even bled percentage is because it was never released in Europe, which would become a rather hysterical trend in all of its matches this contest. For Mario RPG, this meant a guaranteed spot in the divisional finals, and the beginning of a lot of Mario RPG \> Resident Evil 4 hype. By this point of the contest, people noticed that old games beating new games was a noticeable trend, and Mario RPG being over 60% on Oblivion early on in a hyped match caught a lot of eyeballs. RE4 fans were scared to death, and they had every right to be. ## Ctes's Analysis This match wasn't particularly exciting, but it was quite debated due to its importance. Anyone with any contest knowledge knew that this match would be worth a total of six points. Both GTA and World of Warcraft can define casual bait, but no one on the board believed that the division finalist could come out of any round 1 match but this one. Of course, Oblivion directly beat San Andreas and WoW in the past, so just looking there might be enough. Thinking about it, I believe few people doubted Super Mario RPG would win here either, but Oblivion did have its fair share of supporters and there honestly was good reason to. Super Mario RPG had failed to get past GoldenEye before, though that can arguably be blamed to SSF. GoldenEye is good, but not exactly a top game here, SMRPG seemed like a decent mid-carter, just like Oblivion. Five years ago, Oblivion beat Paper Mario II 1v1, and while Super Mario RPG should be stronger, Oblivion had no trouble winning that match at all, so with that in mind, Oblivion was not a bad pick. In general, if a game got above 45% you can't really blame people for going with it. Thing is, you could convince me now that Oblivion would've won this match five years ago. At the very least, it would've been a whole lot closer. I realize Oblivion was never as huge as Skyrim has been, but before Skyrim came out, it was probably a bit stronger. Although, with the contest run SMRPG had, it might be minimal. The above point still stands though. Although Elder Scrolls games in general has held up well here unlike many new games, this site is very nostalgic and it has never been more clear than during this contest. Had that not been the case, as it was a lot less five years ago, well Oblivion might've very well won this match. But not only are we more nostalgic than ever, we're also especially nostalgic towards SNES games. As the contest rolled, SMRPG became the clear favorite, while there was more doubt pre-contest. Super Mario RPG did win too, but Oblivion managed to keep below 55%. This match started out crazy though. SMRPG was well above 60%. It was looking like Resident Evil 4 wouldn't even threat it, and while that did end up being true, when this match was over everyone still felt RE4 was the easy pick to win the division. After the first hour SMRPG started slowing down a bit. It was clearly the board favorite. It stood still for a while and once the deadzone came even lose some updates, so as you can imagine, its percentage bleed like crazy, already being below 55% about 7 hours into the match. It actually continued to drop in percentage for most of the day, though at a much slower pace until it was just right above 54% and Europe went away, so it could build a little bit again. It's very clear that this game was never released in Europe until virtual console because goddamn does it look awful there. The match ended in calm numbers, pretty much what we predicted in the oracle, so despite the outburst early in the match, it looked as had this figured out. SMRPG as a semi-finalist was not clear yet, that's for sure, but it was a clear a division finalist. Really sucks for Oblivion that it drew SMRPG of all games it could draw this division. It ended up looking excellent. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6100&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=50) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas vs (12)Shovel Knight 2015 _source: (5)Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas vs (12)Shovel Knight 2015 (revid 84332)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Tuesday**, November 17, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 7 - **Match \#:** 51 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, November 17, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas - 63.99% 93 for - 3 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas - 78.63% Didn't I just go on a massive rant about how Shenmue getting 38% on GTA5 was hilarious, if not completely ridiculous compared to how the real world would vote? If you polled regular people for this contest, you could make the case GTA5 would actually win the thing. Both games being unable to break 65% on absolute fodder trash, on the same day no less, would be unheard of anywhere else. And yet here we are on the very same day, watching another Grand Theft Auto title just completely piss all over itself in a contest match. This series underperforming even in wins is just comical at this point, to the point where the Oracle called San Andreas underperforming and still overshot how well it would do in this match. I'm sure Shovel Knight is an ok game, I even got it for NG as an early Christmas present on Steam, but let's not pretend it would come close to breaking 40% on GTA without benefiting from a hilarious number of anti-votes. San Andreas lost the board vote badly, and was lucky to break 60% at all. This spawned a lot of RacistFAQs jokes, and when teamed up with how badly GTA5 was doing in its own right, the SMRPG \> Oblivion match, and the Chrono Cross \> WoW upset all going on at the same time, it made for an absolutely hilarious 24 hours. The funny thing is Chrono Cross \> WoW was probably the funniest thing of all. As bad as the two GTA games did on this day, at least they won their matches. WoW didn't even get that much . Two GTA games hilariously underperform at the same time, yet this fact can't even get top headlines. This has to be a whole new level of "lol GTA" that one couldn't even think possible until actually seeing this nonsense happen. Funniest round 1 contest day ever, or at least this was all damn close. ## Ctes's Analysis This was another pretty disappointing performance from GTA. I think people had concluded before this match that it was an advantage to have two games from the same franchise in the poll at the same time, but I'm honestly not sure that's the case when it's something as heavily anti-voted as GTA. San Andreas was obviously never going to lose this one, but it was the board favorite to lose in round 2. This match didn't really change that either. Shovel Knight is a really great game, but an indie game nevertheless. It wasn't going to do well today. Don't say anything about Undertale, it was losing easily to Mass Effect 3. It's really nice to see the exposure Shovel Knight has gotten, the producers did a really bad job with releasing its amiibo, but getting an amiibo in itself was pretty huge. It's great to see it get into the contest and actually put up a respectable percentage today too. It's a bit difficult to judge it due to a bunch of it likely being anti-votes, but it looks relatively good, so let's just give it that praise as it exists.  As for San Andreas, it sure has fallen, but it was already clear five years ago, so obviously it has only gotten worse. San Andreas lost to Golden Sun back in 2010 and a recent chunk of the board actually predicted it, think it was 20% or so. San Andreas only needed a half strong opponent to lose in a similar fashion, Shovel Knight was just a tad too weak. It might've won a match if it got a lucky bracket placement, but it was means to lose in round 1.  San Andreas won Game of the Year in 2004 on GameFAQs. Competition was not at its best that year, but I don't think it would win today. It beat a bunch of sequels in the final poll, Half-Life 2, Halo 2 and Metroid Prime 2 to be more specific, and I don't even think it would win that today, though it would likely beat Halo 2. The thing with GTA is that it is apparently too mainstream for GameFAQs' tastes. And not in the same way Mario or Pokemon is mainstream, but mainstream to casual gamers and not actual gamers. So for GameFAQs' voters, which are almost only actuals, it is just frowned upon, because while most of them might enjoy it, it's just not as great as reviews make it to be. The fall is similar to Call of Duty. San Andreas is a contender for strongest GTA and couldn't double Shovel Knight. Yet after failing to do that it's still a contender for strongest GTA game. Maybe some years from now the hate will die down a bit, but for a while, you shouldn't expect anything from this franchise. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6101&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=51) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (4)World of Warcraft vs (13)Chrono Cross 2015 _source: (4)World of Warcraft vs (13)Chrono Cross 2015 (revid 84333)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Tuesday**, November 17, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 7 - **Match \#:** 52 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, November 17, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Chrono Cross - 55.96% 82 for - 14 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Chrono Cross - 27.32% When the bracket first got released and I was filling things in, I honest to goodness penciled in Chrono Cross winning twice without thinking about it much. Unfortunately I ended up thinking about it too much and found this poll: I figured Animal Crossing getting 41% is about what Chrono Cross would do, and that even anti-votes have to have some ceiling. Somehow I thought Chrono Cross getting 33% on Majora's Mask was a bad result (mainly because Majora's Mask getting bandwagoned would inflate that result), and just massively overthought things for no reason. Too much thinking, not enough common sense, especially given the entire World of Warcraft franchise has completely buried itself beyond repair in recent years. Blizzard decided to completely trash the Warcraft lore ad infinitum in a grand scheme to give us Pandaria as a realm. Pandaria, a complete inside joke in Warcraft 3, was actually and literally given its own expansion in World of Warcraft. The Fonz has nothing on this level of jumping the shark. When the match began, it was one of the most hilarious blowouts in contest history, and quite frankly every contest match where casuals are whining for 24 hours straight is guaranteed to be a good match. If you get a bunch of "this is why GameFAQs is made fun of" topics, even better! It happened with Golden Sun \> San Andreas, it happened with Ness \> CJ, it happened with Paper Mario \> World of Warcraft, and it happened a lot during Chrono Cross beating the tar out of World of Warcraft. It's always great when the casuals whine, as if they're not handed everything for free in the real world. With World of Warcraft especially, it's just great. I have never suffered a more annoying fanbase in my 30 years of gaming than World of Warcraft fans at the height of that game's popularity, and to date, the only good thing that's ever happened in World of Warcraft was the funeral raid. If you don't know about it, look it up and enjoy. The only thing that comes close to that level of entertainment is every time World of Warcraft loses a contest match. ## Ctes's Analysis Look at that prediction percentage. This is a round one match, isn't It hilarious? Well, when you look at this match you see a huge MMORPG that everybody knows and has sold extremely well against a poorly received spiritual successor to Chrono Trigger. We use WoW to mock casuals a lot, but can you really blame them here? I mean, WoW would've been favored against most things by them, but still. Most of the board initially picked WoW to win this first before thinking about it and switching. Chrono Cross has never exactly been worth anything in these contest, but it hasn't been that weak either. If you had followed any of these contests just a little bit beforehand, you'd know that this match was never in any doubt. Chrono Cross was always going to win this. I'm sure Chrono Cross still has some amount of anti-voters, but that is true for World of Warcraft as well. This eight pack was filled with anti-voted games. Chrono Cross is still the kind of game that this site likes, and 15 years after its release, well, the hate has died down a bit. World of Warcraft wasn't that bad here in 4-ways, but the less opponents it has the less games gets its anti-votes. It lost to Paper Mario in 2010, why would this match be any different? At worst, the reception Chrono Cross had could've made this somewhat close on paper, though never in reality. 58% is quite convincing though. It seemed pretty clear that Chrono Cross' excellent bracket placement would carry it to round 3. It finally got a place in the bracket where it could show it has some worth. In 2009 it drew Ocarina of Time in round 1 and while it could still advance it was also lucky enough to be SFF'd hard by FFIX in the same match. In 2010 it actually had a pretty convincing victory against DQVIII before it got doubled against the eventual contest winner. This contest, it finally got its time to shine. Oh, and as a long time contest follower, a match like this is just pleasing. You don't even have to have played either game. Correctly predicting a match like this without any doubts just feels good. Free points for the experts. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6102&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=52) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt vs (14)The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth 2015 _source: (3)The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt vs (14)The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth 2015 (revid 84334)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Wednesday**, November 18, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 7 - **Match \#:** 53 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** The Witcher 3 - 68.14% 95 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** The Witcher 3 - 85.74% Can we agree that Shenmue, Shovel Knight, and Binding of Isaac are of similar strength? Yes? I bring this up because one day after the two GTA games plus World of Warcraft went and flopped all over the place like choking fish, Witcher 3 went out there and completely justified its 3 seed in this contest. Of course there was no outcry whatsoever about Witcher 3 being in this bracket, despite being a popular game from 2015. Wasn't that the big complaint about Undertale? Being "too new" to be in the running for a contest called "Best Game Ever"? Anyway Witcher 3 was at 70% at the beginning of this poll, and then managed to go up from there to get 74% overall. That's really impressive for a first-time contest entrant, even if it is against something like Isaac. It just went out there, took care of business and kept it moving. This would set up a round 2 match against Metal Gear Solid 2, and a lot of Witcher fans pointed out that Witcher 3's developers were known in 2015 to rally like mad for Game of the Year awards. A lot of people dislike this sort of thing, but I'm pretty sure everyone knows my opinion on rallies at this point. I'm also sure everyone knows my opinion on MGS2 and how much I love it, but I would have been fine with Witcher 3 rallying like mad to mow over this contest. And why? Well my belief that rallying makes contests more fun aside, I actually bought Witcher 3 today. When you open the box, this is the first thing you see, in bold letters on a red piece of paper: DEAR GAMER, First of all, we would like to thank you for your support. We really appreciate that you have decided to spend your hard-earned money on our game and hope that you will have a fun time playing it. Over 200 of us have spent the last three years working on The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt and it is with great pleasure and humility that we present our game to you. At CD PROJEKT RED, we believe that when you buy our games, you're entitled to continuous, free support -- updates, patches, and bits of new and amazing content. We owe you that for believing in us and purchasing our game. To thank you, we have prepared something really special -- 16 DLCs for you to download, totally free of charge, regardless of the platform or edition of the game you own. We salute you for your support and wish you a fantastic next-generation of RPG gaming! CD PROJEKT RED I haven't played one minute of Witcher 3, but they have a fan in me already. The company that made it just shit all over Capcom, Activi\$ion, Nintendo, Ubisoft, EA, and every other greedy-ass company that nickel-and-dimes its customers with a mere 161 words. If the game is half as good as the company's mission statement, then it 100% deserved all those game of the year awards. ## Ctes's Analysis Witcher 3 was what I thought would be the 2015 game that had potential. Turns out Undertale had plenty too, but Witcher 3 has a huge community that has shown to rally in different places before. Would they care to rally on GameFAQs? It's not something I wanted to risk picking, but I thought of it a possibility. It wouldn't require much effort for them to put up a rally huge enough for it to do extremely well in the contest, so why the hell not? We might have small votals in the polls, but GameFAQs is still a pretty huge website! It always almost comes up whenever you google search a game, so obviously Witcher fans would be aware of the page. Being aware of the contest was the question. In any case, it was never going to get a rally for this match, because it wasn't needed. Binding of Isaac is obvious turbofodder. Witcher 3 looks really good here for a 2015 game, but most of it is probably just Binding of Isaac being really weak, but I approve of having Rebirth in the bracket this one time! Witcher 3 would face real competition next round and that's when things would get interesting. First and foremost we'd get a real estimate of its strength, which was very likely to be below MGS2, but an upset wasn't completely out of the question giving how weak the Metal Gear Solid franchise had looked. Then of course whether it would get a rally or not. I didn't expect it to, and I certainly didn't hope it would, but this was a game where you had reason to fear one. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6103&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=53) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (6)Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty vs (11)Resident Evil 2015 _source: (6)Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty vs (11)Resident Evil 2015 (revid 84335)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Wednesday**, November 18, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 7 - **Match \#:** 54 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Metal Gear Solid 2 - 57.94% 93 for - 3 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Metal Gear Solid 2 - 55.96% While Witcher 3 was proving itself to be a potential contender, Metal Gear Solid 2 was proving itself rather average and continued the trend of the MGS series looking like absolute garbage in this contest. I know stats aren't everything, but MGS2 was expected to get 59% based on 2009. I know this match comes close, but a lot of us were expecting an overall series boost due to Metal Gear Solid 5's release. Not only did this not happen, but MGS5 being so divisive and Konami firing Kojima for no reason practically led to a series deboost. MGS2 started the match at 60%, then bled percentage all day long to what you see before you. Not exactly a performance one would expect from a contender, and when paired with Witcher 3's great performance and rally potential, the favorite was clear for the big round 2 match. By the way, shoutout to REmake for being the actual best remake of a game ever made. The original Resident Evil is just unplayable trash at this point, but the remake of that game is absolutely top tier. When Raven 2 let me borrow the Resident Evil main line series, my opinions were REmake being knock-your-socks-off amazing, 2 being good, Code Veronica being "okay", and 0 and 3 were absolute trash. Why anyone likes 0 or 3 is just beyond me, but maybe I had to be there when they first happened. I dunno. Point being, play REmake! That game is the shit. ## Ctes's Analysis This match was not interesting to look at, other than laughing more at Metal Gear Solid I guess, but it comes down as one of the most hypothetically interesting of the contest, but let's look at what actually happened first. Some people were discussing the upset here that would be The Witcher 3 winning. It would've been a cool upset too! Sons of Liberty is not exactly the most well-received Metal Gear Solid and The Witcher 3 has been incredible well-received. It took Game of the Year on GameFAQs as well. I haven't played it personally, but it's on the to do list! I do love Metal Gear Solid 2 as well, but I know not everyone appreciates it. Raiden is apparently considered a bad character too. When you look at things like this, The Witcher 3 should win this match, it really should. But it didn't, and it was never going to either. This is GameFAQs! We are very nostalgia and/or haven't played more recent games. It's also that Metal Gear Solid 2 is part of a great well-established series, and even though said series disappointed this contest, it's still a big one. The Witcher 3 is as well, but the first two were not nearly as big as the third one has become. The Witcher 3 doesn't get its popularity from its series' name. I'm not saying Metal Gear Solid 2 completely does, but it certainly helps it a lot. As I just mentioned, The Witcher 3 took Game of the Year here, that really says everything! Without even looking anything up, I can assure you that Metal Gear Solid 2 would lose to at least three other 2001 games, which are Melee, Final Fantasy X and GSC. Now, 2001 was a really good year, but it still says a lot! 2015 was too and recent games in general are great as well. The prediction percentage reveals The Witcher 3 as the overall favorite and we would've guessed so either way, but Metal Gear Solid 2 was the clear board 8 favorite. We know our nostalgic site. Now, what makes this match so hypothetically interesting? GameFAQs dodged a major bullet on this one. Undertale would end up winning this contest by gained momentum over the course of the rounds and within every single round in itself as well. In this match, we dodged another major bracket destruction by rallies in The Witcher 3. The fanbase and even official sites are ridiculously easy to rally for this game. They have done it before and it would take them nothing to overtake this contest completely either. In round 1, there was no reason to contact them whatsoever because The Witcher 3 was facing The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth of all things, which it obviously destroyed. Well, they were contacted this round, but nothing happened, which is weird. I mean, usually, most rally attempt fails and that's just how it is, but this one should've been bulletproof. The answer is in the timing. The day of this match was 11/27. That's Black Friday for you! Not even gamers are home that day. More importantly, the sites were contacted on Thanksgiving, where they weren't working / paying attention. They actually responded to someone explaining that they would've participated in this, but didn't since they weren't contacted sooner than Thanksgiving when the match was on Black Friday. We lucked out due to the date of the match. The rally potential in the Witcher 3 was absolutely the biggest bullet we had to dodge and we did. If they had rallied, The Witcher 3 would've dominated the contest entirely. Undertale won, but at least it kept the board active doing its matches with how its trends were. The Witcher 3 would've destroyed competition in boring matches similar to how Draven did it and this time, there would be no Hero of Time to save everybody with only DDOS attacks to fear. People would probably still say “save us Ocarina of Time” or “save us Chrono Trigger”, even though it would quickly become “save us RBY”, “save us Melee” or even “save us Undertale”. It would likely not happen though. They'd be too many, and Undertale wouldn't be able to jump the same anti-gamefaqs bandwagon if The Witcher 3 was the treat. But none of it ever happened, because of thanksgiving. Most people wont even remember The Witcher 3 in this contest. At most, it was just another entrant to embarrass Metal Gear Solid, but there were so many of those that it went unnoticed here, but The Witcher 3 was the game to fear the most when it came to outside forces, but Minecraft, Heartstone, Destiny and even Undertale were considered more, another reason why people doesn't remember. Who knows what'll happen if the Witcher 3 comes back to the field. Maybe if its past its prime, it wont matter, but if the contest comes somewhat soon, well, you never know! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6104&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=54) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (7)Fallout: New Vegas vs (10)BioShock Infinite 2015 _source: (7)Fallout: New Vegas vs (10)BioShock Infinite 2015 (revid 84336)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Wednesday**, November 18, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 7 - **Match \#:** 55 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Fallout: New Vegas - 56.89% 88 for - 8 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Fallout: New Vegas - 55.18% Before this contest began, Allen spoiled two matches for us. One was Bloodborne/FF12, and the other was this one. All of us immediately knew New Vegas would win thanks to Fallout 4 hype, thought BioShock quickly becoming a one-hit wonder series also helped. BioShock 2 being a disappointment is forgivable, and while Infinite is a good game, it does a few things that don't make much sense. Kotaku wrote a good article called "Bioshock Infinite is Insanely, Ridiculously Violent. It's a Real Shame." That sums up my thoughts rather well. Violence is okay in context, but it's thrown into Infinite for no real reason. There's other stuff, but I don't want this writeup to be a massive spoiler for the game. Some people thought New Vegas was prime to get upset, but this is a case where games = characters is perfectly fine logic. Booker lost to literal Gilgamesh in 2013. Sorry, but that's as obvious an indicator of Infinite's weakness as you can find. I'd make a FLOWCHART™ joke, but I forgot to put "Hype" in there somewhere. This match might have been interesting in 2014, but with Fallout 4 coming out in the middle of the contest it rendered this match an easy 55-45 affair the whole way through. New Vegas with a better draw might have done some damage, but it was saddled with Resident Evil 4 in round 2. ## Ctes's Analysis This is a match I thought about for two seconds, picked New Vegas, and moved on. Yet the prediction percentage is close and we saw a solid handful siding with Infinite. Chris was especially supporting it, picked this as his guest write-up for The Crew too. The reason was actually good. The first BioShock looked really good against Kingdom Hearts II last time, certainly a legit series and BioShock Infinite has been praised quite a bit, New Vegas less so. Fallout 3 was obviously the stronger game from either franchise, but the idea was the BioShock games were closer to each other. Thing is, Fallout 4 literally just had release. It's a very active community right now. New Vegas might not have gotten the same hype as the other Fallout games, but it's a more popular franchise and quite frankly, I don't think Infinite is quite on par with BioShock either, but that wasn't too apparent yet. It's hard to get a good read on Fallout 3 this contest, but it's definitely near elite. Fallout 4 would probably be decent too had it been out a little sooner so it could make it. BioShock is not at all on the same level as Fallout here, that's just how it is. This match probably shows the difference between the franchises quite nicely. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6105&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=55) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (2)Resident Evil 4 vs (15)Paper Mario 2015 _source: (2)Resident Evil 4 vs (15)Paper Mario 2015 (revid 84337)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Wednesday**, November 18, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 7 - **Match \#:** 56 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Resident Evil 4 - 60.22% 94 for - 2 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Resident Evil 4 - 77.09% Most 2 seeds go out there and dominate some fodder en route to an easy contest win or two. Resident Evil 4 did not do that, though admittedly Paper Mario is not a normal 15 seed. Resident Evil 4 lost the board vote, then had to do a lot of recovering to get this thing close to 60%. It would be a clear warning sign of what was coming later, though a lot of people were in denial about it. In looking at this match, I noticed a pretty neat parallel. It depends on how close you think Paper Mario and Thousand-Year Door are in strength, but it's definitely there. In Game of the Decade, Thousand-Year Door got 44.83% on Oblivion: In 2015, Super Mario RPG would end up getting 54.43% on Oblivion: If you assume a constant Oblivion, that's an increase of 9.6%. In this match, Paper Mario got 41.13% on Resident Evil 4. If you add 9.6% to that, you get... 50.73%. Hmmmmmmmmm........ Warning signs were definitely there with Resident Evil 4, though after round 1 the excuse of "we can't compare Paper Mario and TTYD this closely" was there. That excuse wouldn't stay there for long, but denying some relationship between SMRPG, Paper Mario and Thousand-Year Door would be a bit silly. I know the stats topic is known for projecting things a little too far, but it was definitely warranted in this case! Resident Evil 4, right from the first match, looked "off". ## Ctes's Analysis This match feels like such a waste. Last time Paper Mario got the honor of embarrassing our casuals through World of Warcraft. This time, it gets to look at it from the wrong side of the division as Chrono Cross gets the fun. Resident Evil 4 is a league above it, it was never going to win this match and everybody knew it too. Paper Mario: TTYD was in the tougher half of the bracket and won a match, Paper Mario really got unfortunate here and it's due to seeding. Last time, Paper Mario was a \#5 seed, it feel quite a bit to get a \#15 seed. Just for comparison, TTYD fell from a \#7 seed to a \#8 seed which is honestly really great considering that last contest had a field from only a decade. But with that seeding Paper Mario wouldn't have much a chance anywhere. It's a shame to see it fall, but I do appreciate TTYD coming through as the better looking Paper Mario here. The first Paper Mario is really darn good, really fun experience that I could play through over and over again despite a few flaws. TTYD fixed the few things, introduced a new story and created perfection. Seriously, so few games are that. It's a top 3 game for me and my favorite Nintendo game. Paper Mario advanced further than it last time, but this time they had the order I would prefer. This match lines up really well with GotD, which is nice for a match that wouldn't be interesting either way. But the weird thing is that Resident Evil 4 ends up looking a lot worse than it did in GotD. You can explain that through how the series went afterward as well as it being somewhat recent, but then why has Paper Mario fallen accordingly? It's a N64 game, it's still well-liked and despite it not being N64 as most thought, the rest of the N64 games did good. We thought Paper Mario did too, but it ends up looking so bad. If fans now vastly prefer TTYD then perhaps that could be a reason for Paper Mario falling a little bit, but it's still not enough to explain this really. The difference shouldn't be that much, so perhaps Super Mario RPG gained a lot more momentum that we thought from reaching the division finals. It was predicted by board 8, but I guess Super Mario RPG coming out of that eight pack of casual bait, would be a shock to those casuals. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6106&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=56) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Metal Gear Solid vs (16)Splatoon 2015 _source: (1)Metal Gear Solid vs (16)Splatoon 2015 (revid 84346)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Thursday**, November 19, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 8 - **Match \#:** 57 - **Match Date:** Thursday, November 19, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Metal Gear Solid - 76.93% 95 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Metal Gear Solid - 85.77% Given 92% of people picked Mass Effect 2 to beat Virtue's Last Reward in this same division, I'm surprised only 86% picked the 1 seed to beat whatever the hell Splatoon is. Of all five MGS games to make this bracket, only the original looked okay in round 1. 2 looked awful against Resident Evil, 3 looked awful against Mother 3, 4 outright lost against Kingdom Hearts 2, and 5 looked awful against Perfect Dark. The original was at least nice enough to only lose the board vote against Splatoon before shooting way up in percentage and finishing with the 79-21 beating. Not that this would save MGS from falling flat on its face later, but us series fans had to take what we could get when it happened. Remember, a lot of us thought 5 would boost this series to the moon, then the contest happened and almost every game fell way below expectations. Pair that with Mario Maker causing similar issues with the Mario series, and you had yourself one hell of a contest! Comparing the 1 seed prediction percentages for round 1 is always fun: Ocarina of Time - 95.61% Link to the Past - 95.43% Chrono Trigger - 92.68% Super Mario Bros. 3 - 91.22% Skyrim - 90.05% Metal Gear Solid - 85.77% Grand Theft Auto 5 - 84.99% Final Fantasy 6 - 80.86% Not too far off from what the strength of these games would be in order, I think. You could probably throw FF6 above Skyrim and have a pretty accurate list in order, though I suppose some people will argue Chrono Trigger never got a chance to prove itself. I say it got a chance and choked like it always does, but we'll get to that madness in due time. ## Ctes's Analysis At first glance this might look like another bad showing for Metal Gear Solid, but I actually really don't think it is. Getting fourth times as many votes is pretty great, even with your opponent being a Wii U exclusive having just been released. Super Mario 64 didn't get that much more than this against Mario Kart 8, and while Mario Kart 8 is a stronger Wii U title than Splatoon, Super Mario 64 is also a stronger game than Metal Gear Solid. People expected that match to be a bigger blowout too and some of the explanation as to why it wasn't can be used here as well. They games are very different. So you can shoot in both games here, they're nothing alike, from different times, on different systems, different demographics, different everything. As different as can be. I'm inclined to think Metal Gear Solid might have some anti-voting this contest. Everything taken into consideration this is a fine result. That means this is the first Metal Gear Solid match where the MGS game did not disappoint. This was expected to be the strongest of them too, it's old enough for it to have some strength. There was no reason to worry about it not making the semi-finals at this point. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6107&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=57) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (8)EarthBound vs (9)Borderlands 2 2015 _source: (8)EarthBound vs (9)Borderlands 2 2015 (revid 84347)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Thursday**, November 19, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 8 - **Match \#:** 58 - **Match Date:** Thursday, November 19, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** EarthBound - 49.69% 52 for - 44 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** EarthBound - 57.62% 60% of the guru picked Borderlands 2 to win this match, and for good reason. EarthBound had never done a single thing in these contests before 2015, and was the type of game that we would expect to get rolled over by anything with any casual bait -- ie, Borderlands 2. In 2004 there was a ton of hype that EarthBound would beat Doom. After winning the board vote, it got rolled. There was minor hype in 2009, but most people understood that a fourpack featuring three SNES RPGs and Yoshi's Island meant EarthBound was a massive longshot to get second place. Ness the character had never really done anything of note, either, outside the occasional win in round 1 over pure fodder. His 1v1 character wins are against Jak, CJ, and Geno. Hardly murderer's row. So in typical EarthBound fashion, it decides to steamroll a poll for its first contest win when there was no hype behind it whatsoever. Because that's how EarthBound rolls. Bear in mind that Borderlands 2 won Game of the Year in 2013, and even won Review of the Year back when we were still having those polls. Borderlands 2 isn't some joke game that no one here has ever heard of. And it just got smacked. EarthBound was well over 60% for quite some time, and it took a hefty percentage bleed for this match to look even remotely respectable. There were a lot of matches and hints that pointed toward the 90s and the SNES in particular being all business this contest, but EarthBound blowing Borderland 2's doors off showed that 90s were absolutely not. fucking. around. Show any weakness whatsoever as a new game and you were absolutely getting waxed. It says something when this match is an example of the casuals laughing at us, too. Even they knew what was going on this contest, and I imagine a lot of people just conveniently ignored these two polls: The potential for EarthBound to show off in a fair bracket was apparently obvious. Seeing it actually happen was really something else. Play EarthBound. ## Ctes's Analysis This match is really darn hillarious. Borderlands 2 was the board favorite and honestly, it makes sense that Borderlands 2 should win this match looking at past results. Earthbound was no match for Yoshi's Island in 2009. That also means that after this contest, Yoshi's Island would be one of the biggest snubs when it comes to strength seeing as this is the Year of SNES. Along with Super Mario Kart, it's a game I'd really loved to have seen in action. I don't care if it means even more Mario games, I prefer games that can do something above games that can't and keep returning. Anyway, in 2004 Earthbound lost to Doom in similar numbers as this match. Then the following round, Doom got tripled by Final Fantasy VI. With that result in mind, there was plenty of reason to think that EarthBound's performance in 2009 wasn't just SFF, but EarthBound being a really weak game here. Furthermore, EarthBound was never released in Europe before virtual console, and while that doesn't stop you from doing good, see Super Mario RPG, it's certainly not something that helps when you're having big doubt to begin with. Now should Borderlands 2 be particularly strong? Not exactly, but it shouldn't be terrible either. The first Borderlands was in Game of the Decade and couldn't break 30% on Final Fantasy X, but it got close and considering Earthbound's lost easily to Doom which did worse against a Final Fantasy you'd expect to be weaker than Final Fantasy X, at least at the time, well, Borderlands 2 should be the favorite today, even if you always thought Final Fantasy VI would be stronger than X. The idea was also that Borderlands 2 would be stronger than its prequel due to being even better received. One last thing is that Borderlands 2 won Game of the Year on this site. It doesn't mean too much, but it beat Xenoblade Chronicles and Mass Effect 3 among others. Not a bad showing. Picking Borderlands 2 was perfectly reasonable. There was of course also reason to pick EarthBound, after all, it was almost 50-50 on board 8 and EarthBound has higher prediction percentage. First of all, it's a Nintendo game and a JRPG. That will always have the advantage above a game that isn't this. But most importantly, it's another case of old vs. new. If DKC2 could come through against Xenoblade Chronicles, then why shouldn't Earthbound win here. Sometimes it was just difficult to pick the old above the new, sometimes the gap just seemed to be big to begin with and hard to have closed even for nostalgiaFAQs. But damn, the gap had closed if there ever was one, then a new and really big gap was created in EarthBounds's favor instead. I don't think anyone felt 100% confident in Borderlands 2, but it was not supposed to lost this badly. In the beginning of the poll, EarthBound was nearing a doubling, it was close to 65% and it was insane to watch. It declined a bit afterwards showing it had the board vote and even more during the deadzone, because damn not being released at its time in Europe matters there, but it still ended up with a really easy win. I like Borderlands, but it's really satisfying too. You might find EarthBound to be a really big game on the internet, but it wasn't, it's sequel couldn't even be released outside of Japan. Ness appearing in every Smash is a great reason for why people even know about it to begin with, but it's fantastic. One of the greatest 2D RPG's. It really showed itself in these contests today. It can't be entirely contributed to Year of SNES though. Borderlands 2 would obviously be stronger a few years ago. It's just the wrong time to be a recent Western game on this site. I mean, being a Western game was never that great to begin with here, but now that recent games generally don't do well, it just becomes even worse. And no, Borderlands was probably never a franchise that was strong to begin with, but it really wasn't this bad. Picking old against new in debatable matches was a good idea, but we didn't know that new had fallen as much as it had before the contest began. Borderlands 2 deserved a contest chance, especially after winning GotY here no matter how small an achievement that may be, in 2012 especially, but it's not a franchise that needs to have reputation in the future really. It's a shame, they're good games, but there's no reason it. It has fallen a lot and it's not something that's gonna get much better probably. Despite Borderlands 2 being weaker than anticipated, Year of SNES is still insane. Let's just sum up how the SNES games have done up until now that the final SNES game in the bracket had a match… - Chrono Trigger scored an insane blowout. - Mega Man X destroyed its opponent in a debatable match. - Final Fantasy VI put up insane numbers against ACII. - Super Mario World ended up fighting a huge rally, but held up like a king and was destroying until then - Donkey Kong Country 2 took a major upset against a game of the most popular genre here - A Link to the Past delivered one of the absolute biggest blowouts - Final Fantasy IV almost put up 70% against Deus Ex - Super Metroid completely destroyed Call of Duty 4 in perhaps the most shocking SNES performance - SMRPG had no trouble winning a highly debated match that a fellow Mario RPG stood no chance against five years ago - EarthBound destroying today as I just went throughout That's 10 matches and 10 very promising victories. DKC2 was the only one in any danger and it was expected to lose that match with ease. Every single of them over performed in percentage (unless you count SMW after Undertale rallies). Super Mario Kart and Yoshi's Island among possible others would only contribute to this list unless they faced each other or some elite opponent from another console. It was a great time for SNES fans. 7/10 of them looked great to go in round 2 as well, with one of the three that didn't being because it faced another SNES game. Had we known this would be Year of SNES, I doubt anyone would have picked Borderlands 2 either. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6108&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=58) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Shadow of the Colossus vs (12)Team Fortress 2 2015 _source: (5)Shadow of the Colossus vs (12)Team Fortress 2 2015 (revid 84348)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Thursday**, November 19, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 8 - **Match \#:** 59 - **Match Date:** Thursday, November 19, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Shadow of the Colossus - 62.86% 95 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Shadow of the Colossus - 71.45% I in no way respect Shadow of the Colossus as a video game. We all know this. But I do respect its contest strength. Let's not forget that Team Fortress 2 has won a contest match before, and both it and its characters have made multiple appearances in contests. Shadow of the Colossus just waxing it off the map like this was impressive, and it immediately brought up memories of running the Metal Gear Solid gauntlet in Game of the Decade. As fate would have it, Metal Gear Solid and Shadow of the Colossus were a lock to face each other in round 3 of this contest. EarthBound was not beating Metal Gear Solid, and Red Dead Redemption was not beating Shadow of the Colossus. SotC would have its chance to prove itself as an elite and make a deep contest run, and had it faced any other MGS title in round 3 it really might have pulled it off. There was no indication of a possible SotC \> MGS upset after round 1, but after round 2 there were MGS fans just mortified that we would see a Game of the Decade rerun. ## Ctes's Analysis It's nice having the whole Orange Box represented, but Team Fortress 2 is the entry that there really was no reason to see again. Shadow of the Colossus certainly proved its worth last contest, but in 2009 it only barely beat Gears of War in a meaningless third place match while Kingdom Hearts II and Resident Evil 4 destroyed it. This contest was the time for Shadow of the Colossus to show if its star contest one was a one time thing or it really had legitimate strength now. At a first glance here, it looks pretty good. Not amazing, but it never was. These are not bad numbers. It had the luck of being placed in the bottom quarter where it could actually do some damage and looking at the bracket, there was no reason at all to doubt it'd make round 3 either. Its test would come when it went head to head with the Metal Gear Solid series once again, this time against the original. SBAllen definitely set this part of the bracket up with the last contest in mind where SotC took major upsets against the second and fourth MSG before ultimately falling to the third. That said, we all expected Metal Gear Solid to be the strongest. Several MGS3 supporters in this contest even believed it would take some rSFF shenanigans for it to come out of the division. Without the bandwagon too, SotC seemingly wouldn't stand a chance in round 3. There was however reason to hope for the upset. Metal Gear Solid has had really poor performances this contest mostly, and while the original one was looking fine in this match, let's take a moment to look at its opponent. Team Fortress only needed to be slightly stronger than Splatoon for the upset to look not too unlikely. I didn't believe it myself, but you couldn't blame SotC for having some amount of confidence. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6109&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=59) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (4)Red Dead Redemption vs (13)Bayonetta 2 2015 _source: (4)Red Dead Redemption vs (13)Bayonetta 2 2015 (revid 84349)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Thursday**, November 19, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 8 - **Match \#:** 60 - **Match Date:** Thursday, November 19, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Red Dead Redemption - 60.44% 91 for - 5 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Red Dead Redemption - 79.13% I have no clue why I thought Bayonetta could actually win this match, even with it being a Wii U exclusive on a site that doesn't remotely care about the Wii U. I kind of figured a casualbait title like Red Dead Redemption would just get rolled, which tends to happen to games like this when they go up against Nintendo. As it would turn out, Bayonetta is not only not Nintendo, but she is pure fodder of the highest accord. A 64-36 beating is no accident, and RDR actually managed to go up in percentage after losing the board vote. I don't know that RDR deserved a 4 seed, but it did at least deserve to win a contest match. Too bad it was destined to get completely rocked in round 2. Divisions 7 and 8 in general just felt very odd, and loaded with a ton of games that felt very close to each other in strength. This always seems to happen at the bottom of the bracket, too, for whatever reason. You never see all the Nintendo heavy-hitters down here and all the high midcarders up top. Addendum: Beyonetta being announced for Smash Bros really makes one wonder how the Bayonetta games would fare in a contest these days. We've seen smash announcements give insane boosts to characters before. ## Ctes's Analysis First of all, considering Bayonetta 2 is a Wii U sequel, I'm honestly really surprised that's the one of the two games that got into the contest. I have yet to play them, though I did pick up the special edition bundle with both games right before it disappeared. I don't know if there's a huge difference in quality or something, but that's not my impression. I've talked to tons of people that were really disappointed the couldn't easily play the second due to not owning a Wii U and not wanting to get one just for that. So yeah, that's a shocker. For the same reason I'd also expect the second one to be a whole lot weaker, since it's playrate should be lower, and I guess sadly the fact that it's a Wii U game. It makes absolutely no sense people chose to nominate this above the first, but oh well. It actually didn't look all that bad here. I mean it lost pretty easily and Red Dead Redemption is not the kind of game that should have much strength here, but it's not too bad. If I'm right that the first game would do a lot better then I hope it gets in next time! It's a recent game, but it stands out a lot. Bayonetta is a noticeable character and her appearing as a playable character in Smash Bros soon will certainly only help! Of course, that was unknown at the time of this match. Red Dead Redemption got an easy win today because it drew a Wii U exclusive that wasn't Smash 4, but it never stood a chance in round 2. Quite frankly, I don't mind that either. I personally find the game to be somewhat disappointing even if it wasn't bad. Also, I feel like it should be mentioned that Bayonetta 2 ended up being the ultimate loser here, something you definitely wouldn't have thought before the contest began. The chain goes Undertale \> Ocarina of Time \> Super Mario RPG \> Metal Gear Solid 3 \> Metal Gear Solid \> Shadow of the Colossus \> Red Dead Redemption \> Bayonetta 2. No one would've predicted that. Ocarina of Time losing to anything is the biggest upset there, but then Super Mario RPG went on a roll, MGS3 pulled the upset, SotC did not. Bayonetta 2 was really unfortunate, just the contest's way of spitting on the Wii U one last time. What a shame. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6110&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=60) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater vs (14)Mother 3 2015 _source: (3)Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater vs (14)Mother 3 2015 (revid 84350)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Friday**, November 20, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 8 - **Match \#:** 61 - **Match Date:** Friday, November 20, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Metal Gear Solid 3 - 74.43% 96 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Metal Gear Solid 3 - 82.53% Is this the most embarrassing 70-30 win in contest history? I'm not even joking. This really might be the worst 70-30 win in contest history. Most people in the Oracle picked MGS3 to do better than this, and for good reason. Unless Mother 3 got some rerelease that I'm unaware of, the game only got released in Japan. The only way for American gamers to play it is through fan translations on an emulator or by importing, meaning you have to be a very dedicated Mother series fan to even know what in the hell Mother 3 is. I know GameFAQs is JRPG Central and is exactly the kind of site that would put a game like Mother 3 over, but even by our warped standard, Mother 3 is really obscure. Then there's the match picture, which cracks me up every time I see it. Mother 3's box art is literally just a red box with "Mother 3" on it. That's it. There is no reason for this game to have any strength whatsoever, and the case can really be made that it should be the weakest game in the field, if not one of the weakest. You could also make the case that a vast majority of Mother 3's voters are actually just Smash Brothers fans throwing in a vote for Lucas. Either way, there is no reason MGS3 shouldn't have been able to godstomp Mother 3 right out of this contest. Yet there it was, proving the MGS series was absolutely fucked in this contest. Yes 4 of the 5 games that made the bracket won their first match, but only MGS1 looked any good in doing so. 2, 3, and 5 all looked awful, and 4 just outright lost. It lost to a strong game, don't get me wrong, but it still lost. It would not take long for us to see the newfound MGS series weakness in action, either. Some rather hilarious upsets were brewing. Also, this is random but it's hilarious how both Mother games were in one division. One of those hilarious little bracket quirks that pops up now and again. ## Ctes's Analysis Mother 3 was one of the games we predicted to be in from SBAllen's hints. He said that a single one of 128 was never released in America, it obviously had to be Mother 3. It also helped of figure out what games came from 1994, there weren't many so people weren't sure about Earthbound, but this meant EarthBound would have to be in as well. Anyway, it is really impressive that a game can get in despite only being released in Japan. I'm sure that Smash shouldhave some of the credit for it. I know it made it in last contest as well, but GotD had a much smaller library of games that could enter. I really hope Nintendo decided to give EarthBound an ending now that EarthBound beginnings was released on Virtual Console last year. Anyway, Metal Gear Solid 3 had a lot to show today. Most people predicted it to lose the division finals to the original Metal Gear Solid, but a good chunk of people had Mass Effect 2 getting past it. The first Mass Effect had proven itself worthy and the idea was that the second one was stronger due to it being the most well received. At the same time as this match went on, Mass Effect 2 was destroying its opponent badly, though it's hard to judge how much of an accomplishment that was when Virtue's Last Reward sounds like a contender for absolute worst game in the bracket. As for this match on its own, Metal Gear Solid 3 looks pretty bad honestly. Mother 3 is exclusive to Japan, it's not supposed to break 30% on any game that people considered taking to the semi-finals. Doesn't matter if this is the weakest quadrant, that was a red flag for the Metal Gear Solid franchise once again. This was another disappointing performance. No offense meant towards Mother 3, but it has a terrible playrate. Mother 3 surprised us all last contest too by scoring 35% on Devil May Cry 3, but wouldn't you expect MGS3 to beat DMC3 by a bit more? To provide more perspective, Devil May Cry 3 got 35% on Metroid Prime in round 2. I think Metroid Prime vs. Metal Gear Solid 3 would have been a debated match too, but judging by this, it would be a very easy win for Metroid Prime. Metal Gear Solid 3 greatly disappointed today. It was still the favorite against Mass Effect 2, but there was reason to be worried. Mother 3 shouldn't have gotten a nostalgia boost either or anything. I know the people supporting it are all EarthBound supporters, but many EarthBound supporters haven't even played this game. Also, Mother 3's match pic was literally just the game title on a red background. I know that's the boxart, but please, so terrible. Yet Mother 3 did this good. Yes, MGS3 might have disappointed greatly today, but let's give some credit to Mother 3 as well, it ends up looking pretty good. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6111&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=61) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (6)BioShock vs (11)Silent Hill 2 2015 _source: (6)BioShock vs (11)Silent Hill 2 2015 (revid 84351)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Friday**, November 20, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 8 - **Match \#:** 62 - **Match Date:** Friday, November 20, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** BioShock - 62.07% 93 for - 4 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** BioShock - 69.83% This was a very predictable match, in a rather long line of predictable matches to round out round 1. Chrono Cross \> World of Warcraft was our last good match of round 1, and the 12 matches after that were just round 1 playing out the string. It makes for a rather long PCA grind, to be perfectly honest. I am glad to see BioShock get an easy win after Infinite crapped the bed, though having it come at Silent Hill 2's expense was sad. I've always hated when two games I love are in a poll together, but them's the breaks sometimes. The right game did win, though. For everything Silent Hill 2 does well, BioShock does it just a little bit better. Storytelling, creepy factor, atmosphere, graphics, and especially gameplay. The only thing Silent Hill 2 does best is Pyramid Head, though I can easily argue Big Daddy is every bit as scary if you consider the Big Daddies a villainous clan in BioShock. Even if you don't, they have fucking drill arms and the intro of the game shows a Big Daddy drilling through a guy's chest right after he was dumb enough to try stealing a plasmid. Pyramid Head is cool and all, but come on. Drill arm. This would set up a round 2 match between Metal Gear Solid 3 and BioShock, which on paper looked to be a lock for MGS3. In practice, it ended up being one of the most entertaining matches of the entire contest. As a complete aside, did Big Daddy influence Nautilus's character in League of Legends at all? Anyone know if this is a thing? They're remarkably similar and I'm very much rooting for this to be the case. ## Ctes's Analysis This match just required you to look at previous match-ups real quick if you had any doubt at first. Both games lost in round 1 in 2009, but BioShock lost in a close match to the then strong Portal and very strong Metal Gear Solid 4. This contest, that wouldn't been a particularly good showing, but in their hey-day, those two opponents were very good! Silent Hill 2 got destroyed by Final Fantasy X, Metal Gear Solid 2 and Morrowind to get a big last place. If that wasn't enough, BioShock got close to Kingdom Hearts II the following year while Silent Hill 2 got destroyed by Vice City. The einner today was clear as the day. That said, BioShock didn't win by all that match these contests considered. At this point I assumed old vs. new was at its work again, helping Silent Hill 2 a little bit out. There is probably some truth to that, but after the contest is over it doesn't look like BioShock fell at all. For the first time ever Silent Hill 2 actually looks somewhat legit, not good, but certainly a lot better than it did in the past, so that's nice! It's weird seeing a PS2 game get a boost like that though, they mostly fell or at best, simply stayed the same. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6112&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=62) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (7)Starcraft vs (10)Destiny 2015 _source: (7)Starcraft vs (10)Destiny 2015 (revid 84352)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Friday**, November 20, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 8 - **Match \#:** 63 - **Match Date:** Friday, November 20, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Starcraft - 60.15% 89 for - 8 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Starcraft - 68.10% Before saying anything about the match, I feel obligated to quote Bobby Kotick: "The goal that I had in bringing a lot of the packaged goods folks into Activision about 10 years ago was to take all the fun out of making video games." Once again, I have been vindicated. I told you people Starcraft 2 would be utter trash and would be nothing more than a 3 part cash grab. Now that Starcraft 2 has finally been released, it was proven as nothing more than a three part cash grab. There was no "holy crap, this is actually three games!". It was 1/3rd of a game released three times to fulfill Activi\$ion's stated mission statement of sucking all the fun out of video games and only seeking to fleece customers for as much money as possible with every release. It was Filler Content: A Three Part Series. Bobby Kotick outright tells you people he thinks you're trash. A lot of you deny this and buy the games anyway because it says "Blizzard" on it. It's similar to how Hillary Clinton somehow still has fans, despite being a war criminal and outright telling people she thinks they're trash. She doesn't tip, doesn't let people look her in the eye, routinely acts like royalty and demands special treatment at all times, covers up all of Bill Clinton's violent rapes, shows up to debates late because she's an entitled douche, and thinks she can get away with ordering a stand down to have troops killed because her last name is Clinton. Liberals just enjoy being lied to and conned. Men in Black perfectly explained how human beings act, but only got it right for people who vote Democrat. Oh. Wait. I can't criticize Hillary Clinton because she's a woman. Just like I can't criticize Obama because he's black. If someone falls under a liberal buzzword, they are royalty now. Thank god Donald Trump went out there and proved what a joke the entire political process is. For those in shock about his poll numbers, he's the only one up there that's real. The public is done with political correctness and not being "real". He changed the entire game, and it's finally swinging back around to where it's okay to act like a badass aggressive male again. Notice how he treats all of these cowardly reporters by cutting them off every time they try their "gotcha" journalism bullshit? Imagine if this dude actually becomes president. It would be the most hilarious day in the history of this country. All these whiny punks who want segregated safe spaces while petitioning to repeal the first amendment might actually have to -- wait for it -- look in a mirror and take responsibility for themselves! Holy shit! So yeah, Starcraft 2 is garbage and people need to stop being suckers. I played it over my friend's place for free, and there is zero reason it couldn't have been released as a single game. Outside of Kotick being a greedy POS, of course. On the bright side, playing it reminded me of how great the original was. On that note, to the match itself. There was a decent amount of debate about this match. Starcraft is a long way removed from its power days of 2004 where it threatened to rally through the Spring 2004 Contest (rallies are totally a new contest phenomenon though, guys, and totally haven't always been there!), as evidenced by 2009 when it folded to Final Fantasy 8 twice. In round 2 when it actually lost, it only lost by 6000 votes. This sounds like a lot, but if its rally power was there it could have easily gotten second place in that match. Six years later in 2015, who really knew if Starcraft truly mattered anymore. I've already covered why Starcraft 2 is garbage and how the entire Blizzard name is damaged beyond repair, so who knows if Starcraft would be negatively affected? On the other side was Destiny, one of the most hyped games in all of gaming since it came out. It was the \#1 game on the site when the contest started (#9 as of this writing), and seemed to be a rally target pre-contest. All the usual tools were there -- a giant internet buzz, a fanatical fanbase, a relatively new release, and a large subreddit. Ngamer brought all of this up during The Show, and really hammered home some solid numbers on why Destiny could have been dangerous. But ironically, whenever someone brought this stuff up pre-contest, it was Destiny's own fans making sure to let everyone know that the game sucked, that the fans hated it, and that would not get rallied in any way. Apparently one has to play the game for like 300 hours to learn that it sucks. Or something. I don't get it, and I won't pretend to. Then again I played a lot of Warcraft 3 before finally realizing the game was trash, all to get a stupid multiplayer icon next to my username. So I can't hate on the Destiny fans too much. Come match time, Starcraft would layeth the smacketh down on Destiny's roody-poo candy ass to the tune of a 75-25 beating. It was a nice parallel to a certain match from Starcraft's past, and it performed as if it waited 10 years to get revenge for said match. You know what I'm getting at. The infamous Vincent \> Kerrigan match: In that match, there was a ton of debate, then come match time we were treated to a 79-21 beating. Starcraft/Destiny had a ton of debate, then the match happened and we were treated to a 75-25 beating. At least Starcraft was on the good side of the beating this time! ## Ctes's Analysis I don't think this match was that debated, if at all, but Starcraft was not expected to score this well. A single user in the oracle challenge predicted Starcraft to do better than it did, by 0.01%. The rest predicted it to win by less, with the average being slightly above 60%. That's pretty darn far from what it ended up getting. Starcraft was in full force today. At this point it was unknown just how weak Destiny was. I mean, it was obvious it was really darn weak, but Starcraft is a game whose strength is really hard to determine after the 2004 run it had, so you never know. The division was mostly about Metal Gear Solid 3 and Mass Effect 2. That was the main excitement, but now suddenly it looked like Starcraft may be able to prevent them from even meeting. Destiny would only need to every so slightly stronger than Virtue's Last Reward for Starcraft to win the next match, and nobody would be surprised if Destiny was a whole lot stronger. Starcraft is really easy to rally too, so if you had Mass Effect 2 going far there was reason to be worried. Plus, if Starcraft won that match, it might be able to catch momentum similar to how it did it in 2004 by winning a match as a \#16 seed. For a game where PC exclusives have looked terrible, almost all of them in fact, it was really nice to see Starcraft not be terrible, but actually exceed expectations quite a bit. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6113&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=63) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (2)Mass Effect 2 vs (15)Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward 2015 _source: (2)Mass Effect 2 vs (15)Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward 2015 (revid 84353)_ ## Results **Round One** '''**'Friday**, November 20, 2015 ## Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 8 - **Match \#:** 64 - **Match Date:** Friday, November 20, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Mass Effect 2 - 80.55% 97 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Mass Effect 2 - 92.00% It was fun listing prediction round 1 percentages for the 1 seeds, so let's do it for the 2 seeds. Final Fantasy 7 - 94.02% Persona 4 - 92.48% Mass Effect 2 - 92% Super Mario World - 90.18% Majora's Mask - 89.29% Symphony of the Night - 88.76% Resident Evil 4 - 77.09% The Last of Us - 74.96% Seeing FF7 as a 2 seed while GTA5 is sitting there as a 1 is ridiculous. The Last of Us and Persona 4 also don't belong as 2 seeds, but in the opposite direction. Those two were overseeded. I love when the last match of round 1 is a blowout, for PCA purposes. Sub-Zero \> Master Chief or Pac-Man \> Ocelot are fun and all, but I do love some reflection. Mass Effect 2 got a nice, relaxing 79-21 blowout that let us all reflect on Stars and Turds! Remember, this is purely personal. Star of the Round: Chrono Trigger, honorable mention to Super Metroid. I'd give this to Undertale, but for 18 hours that game was hardly a Star of the Round. Star series was the Zelda series for sure. 5 dominant wins, with the two biggest blowouts of the contest. Turd of the Round: Super Mario Maker, dishonorable mentions to Destiny and Mass Effect 3. Mario Maker goes without saying, as does Destiny's being hot garbage, but you have to be mentioned in this category when you give up a 9252 vote lead. Don't forget that our record before this was 2483. Turd series was easily Metal Gear Solid. 5 games got in. Only one looked good in winning, while three of the games looked horrible in wins and MGS4 just outright lost. It was a rather entertaining round 1, even if there were a ton of predictable matches. That happens with any contest, though. It set up what would be a really fun round 2, which would also be four matches per day. Past that, it would drop to 2 matches per day until the semis, then one match per day. The best match of round 1 was probably Undertale \> Mass Effect 3. The worst, at least for me personally, was MGS5 \> Perfect Dark. I love Perfect Dark, don't get me wrong, but seeing MGS5 shit the bed like that was heartbreaking. Kojima getting fired, then banned from the video game awards was stupid. The entire thing just pisses me off, and the match (not to mention MGS5 itself) reminded me of wasted potential. Kojima built up all this good will over years and years of hard work. Konami ruined it. I'm tired of seeing the things I love ruin themselves. My last anecdote for round 1 before moving on is holy crap is this a lot of matches. I've done 64 writeups, which used to be the length of an entire PCA! We've reached the halfway point though; all downhill from here! ## Ctes's Analysis Well, Mass Effect 1 and 3 had tough matches with one of them prevailing and the other one failing and thereby changing the rest of the contest for good. Mass Effect 2 however, had a very easy time. As a \#2 seed, it got to draw an absolutely terrible game strength wise. We wouldn't know how bad yet, but it's obvious it was really bad before seeing it. Mass Effect 2 would have to prove itself as the strongest Mass Effect game as we thought it probably was. The other two being \#10 seeds shows which is the fan favorite, but that's not enough. However, we wouldn't really get anywhere on that before the next round, where it got to face an actual challenge. Both games Starcraft and Mass Effect 2 faced are newcomers and incredibly weak apparently. Not that it was a surprise in this match. There comes a point in the high percentages where things get really hard to determine and x-stats might look weird. This high, things such a play rate and anti-voting really starts mattering a lot. I don't know if the latter matters today, but there is an off-chance that Mass Effect 3 created some backlash for the series. The playrate shouldn't be bad in particular. It's a recent game, but that's the only reason it could be. So I actually don't think Mass Effect 2 manages to look that good today. Look at the prediction percentage, everyone knew Virtue's Last Reward would such. This is one of the highest prediction percentages of the whole contest. There are only six games that managed to get a better one; Chrono Trigger, Final Fantasy VII, Fallout 3, Persona 4, Ocarina of Time and A Link to the Past. Those are all either among the very strongest games on the site or their opponents were among the weakest. Mass Effect 2 can be compared to Persona 4 the easiest, because Persona 4 had a somewhat similar opponent in 999 and did slightly worse. If you assume Virtue's Last Reward and 999 are toughly equal, then Mass Effect 2 is not that much stronger than Persona 4, which certainly wouldn't make it stand much a chance against MGS3 let alone Starcraft, but it wouldn't be weird for Virtue's Last Reward to be a good chunk stronger either. With how Metal Gear Solid 3 did today, Mass Effect 2 had good reason to do well in that match, but just as much if not more reason to be scared of Starcraft in round 2. Thus the first round ended on a rather boring day. None of the matches were interesting and all four were really predictable too, but it was easy to see how good this division could get though. Seeing which Metal Gear Solid is the strongest, but having threats to the title of division winner in Mass Effect to a previous bandwagon catchers in Shadow of the Colossus and Starcraft. Something to look forward to for sure! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6114&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=64) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Chrono Trigger vs (8)Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King 2015 _source: (1)Chrono Trigger vs (8)Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King 2015 (revid 84354)_ ## Results **Round Two** '''**'Saturday**, November 21, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 1 - **Match \#:** 65 - **Match Date:** Saturday, November 21, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Chrono Trigger - 76.20% 92 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Chrono Trigger - 82.20% Dragon Quest 8 pulled a cute little guru upset in round 1, which is nice. It got some nice little contest buzz, and that was all well and good. But round 2 is usually when contest entrants like this eat their loss, if not round 3 with some insanely lucky bracket placement. Chrono Trigger is a whole different animal than Persona 3, and this contest's version of Chrono Trigger was on some serious steroids. Akira Toriyama SFF jokes aside, Chrono Trigger just absolutely fucking demolished Dragon Quest 8 in this match. There may have been some SFF here, but you don't just randomly break 80% after round 1 of a contest. I'm sure people will ask for a list of 1v1 contest matches from round 2 and onward where the winner broke 80%, so here you go! Including this very match, 80% or more has only happened 17 times. A good deal of those matches listed are SFF, too. For a decent anecdote, Mario 3 couldn't break 80% on Metroid in the Spring 2004 games contest. It is not easy to do. With SFF removed, we can make the case that only the following matches saw 80% broken naturally from round 2 and onward. You could make the case that Cloud \> Vyse and CT \> DQ8 are SFF, but I'll disagree just for the sake of proving a point here. Six non-SFF matches where 80% got broken from round 2 and onward is completely nuts. Chrono Trigger was on fire this contest. The case can be made that round 1 was whatever. You can't make that case when it happens twice in a row, and the parallel here was Mega Man in 2002. Mega Man pulling those two blowouts was unexpected and hilarious, as was the board reaction. Fast forward 13 years, and you finally got another case where something pulled off two hilarious and unexpected blowouts in a row. Chrono Trigger got a ton of hype after this, and for good reason. This was the same kind of mojo that caused Kobe Bryant to score 81 points. You just don't see this very often. It wouldn't get stuck facing Sephiroth in round 3, either. Final Fantasy X was clearly a winnable match, given how badly it was embarrassed by Mega Man X. And by "winnable", I mean "holy shit, we were so not ready for what would happen next". ### Ctes' Analysis This result was absolutely insane to watch. No game is supposed to go out and score 82% in round 2 to begin with, that's too much. Then against Dragon Quest VIII, which isn't even a weak game. Persona 3 isn't exactly strong, but DQVIII easily took care of it last round and looked good doing so. Now it's looking close to Up Your Arsenal. The biggest thing about this though was that it was coming from Chrono Trigger. It wasn't Ocarina of Time or Final Fantasy VII blasting through competition here (even though the latter doing so would be a pleasant surprise at this point). It also wasn't Mario or Pokemon or any of the big names. It was Chrono Trigger. This old game not connected to any others. The game that might've beaten a bunch of Mario games to get to the finale in 2004, but kept losing to Super Mario 64 in 2009 while embarrassing its way out of competition. Chrono Trigger was in god mode. This result pitted it as one of the absolute strongest games of all on this site. It was looking like a threat to even Ocarina of Time today. One might argue that there was some SFF in this match, but how much of that have we seen this contest? Close to none at all. Besides that, they're not that closely connected. Different platforms from different companies and in different generations. This is just Chrono Trigger being a beast. How far it could get was debatable, but there was no way Final Fantasy X would get past it the following round. Chrono Trigger was the definite favorite to get out of the division and people started debated how a Chrono Trigger vs. Final Fantasy VII match would go. It was difficult to see Square fans siding with Chrono Trigger in that one, but it looked too good today for it to seem impossible. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6115&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=65) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (12)Mega Man X vs (4)Final Fantasy X 2015 _source: (12)Mega Man X vs (4)Final Fantasy X 2015 (revid 84355)_ ## Results **Round Two** '''**'Saturday**, November 21, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 1 - **Match \#:** 66 - **Match Date:** Saturday, November 21, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy X - 60.36% 90 for - 3 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Final Fantasy X - 44.02% While Chrono Trigger was busy scoring round 2's biggest blowout, Final Fantasy X was out there doing... whatever in the world this was. Based on 2009 stats, Final Fantasy X was projected to get 68% on Mega Man X. I know "lol 4-ways" and such, and that round loss in 2009 was probably a little weird, but it does not explain being projected to get 68% and then going out there and just completely shitting the bed. MMX potentially being hidden behind some weird SNES SFF from Final Fantasy 6 in 2009 can only explain so much. The true tragedy here was Mega Man 2 not getting into the bracket. You cannot have a contest called "Best Game Ever", with 128 games in the bracket, without having Mega Man 2 in there somewhere. You just can't. Mega Man X being a hidden beast proves this. Things were bad right from the start for FFX, when it was only at 57% at the freeze. MMX then proceed to thoroughly embarrass FFX for the first couple hours of the poll, including even getting a couple of cuts, before FFX recovered during the dead zone (Square's best time) to get things back to 57%. Then the morning vote hit and MMX started going up again, including getting even more cuts throughout the match. MMX was never a threat to win, but any hopes FFX had of beating Chrono Trigger just completely died after this match. This was a horrible win for Final Fantasy X, one of the worst wins of the entire contest, and even then it still didn't prepare people for just how badly FFX was fucked in round 3. We all knew it would lose at this point. The extent of just bad the blowout would be was really something else. ### Ctes' Analysis We've talked about how this year was the Year of SNES many times, but damn was that highlighted today. Mega Man X was in no way supposed to be able to score this good on Final Fantasy X. Final Fantasy X reached the finale of 2009, and even though it took advantage of other games suffering from LFF to reach that finale it still got there. Mega Man X for comparison was easily eliminated in round 1 by Final Fantasy VI and Link's Awakening, which are strong games yes, but it should still put Mega Man X quite a while behind Final Fantasy X. Let me remind you Final Fantasy X was viewed as the second strongest Final Fantasy game back then. I don't think anyone doubted that it was. Furthermore, in Game of the Decade, Final Fantasy X was the favorite and might have very well won if Majora didn't get the support from Ocarina not being in the bracket and maybe Brawl beating Melee. Mega Man X wasn't in that contest of course, but I guarantee it wouldn't have done that well. Final Fantasy X today surely wasn't anywhere near Majora's Mask, a game it almost beat despite all the aforementioned things being against it. Final Fantasy X had dropped in some way for whatever reason, which is really weird considering that it's actually pretty old by now. Perhaps Playstaion 2 is a generation too late. Final Fantasy IX looked fantastic this contest. Last contest Final Fantasy X took care of IX easily, such a boring match. SFF? Sure, but IX got destroyed regardless. This contest they looked about even, and while IX has been a fan favorite for whatever weird reason the last few years, I don't think it's enough. FFX dropped for some reason too. Of course, the result today was not just Final Fantasy X. Mega Man X deserves some major props for doing this well. To think it was highly debated whether it would lose in round 1. It was never going to win this match, but it exited the contest looking fantastic. Put Mega Man X in the bottom-quarter of the bracket and man we'd see some brackets getting screwed over. It might very well win against any game down there, but Super Mario RPG is debatable. I don't think it would, but no reason to be ashamed of that. It can't be said enough; it truly is the Year of SNES, and with SMB3 looking pretty great despite losing early, I wish we'd have more NES games in the contest to see if they had a similar boost, because I think they would. The obvious snubs are Mario 1 and Zelda 1, but regarding this match, I'd really love to see Mega Man 2 and maybe Mega Man 3 in this contest, though it's fine with just 2, they're likely equals anyway. While SBAllen quickly revealed that neither Mario 1 nor Zelda 1 were in the bracket by revealing how many games from each year got in. Two games from 1989 made it in and everyone assumed that had to be Super Mario Bros. 3 and Mega Man 2 until Allen explained how he decided what year games belonged in using Tetris as an example, which basically revealed Tetris was one of those two 1989 games, and no one doubted Super Mario Bros. 3 would be the other. Truly a shame we didn't get Mega Man 2 after this result. Mega Man X is a game that definitely deserves a better bracket placement in another contest, not to mention a better seed. It's more than worthy of it. There's not much Mega Man representation in one game, so it's nice to see that one game doing well. As someone who's kinda sad that the last two contests we've had were decided by outside forces, at least both contests had Mega Man exceeding expectations. Let's keep this, Mega Man looked so bad for so many years here, I like this change! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6116&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=66) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Super Smash Bros. Melee vs (6)Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal 2015 _source: (3)Super Smash Bros. Melee vs (6)Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal 2015 (revid 84356)_ ## Results **Round Two** '''**'Saturday**, November 21, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 1 - **Match \#:** 67 - **Match Date:** Saturday, November 21, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Smash Bros. Melee - 58.71% 91 for - 2 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Smash Bros. Melee - 58.12% Despite this match being an easy win for Melee, there was a lot of intrigue here. First and foremost, let's check the LOL, X-Stats. Based on 2009, Melee was expected to get 57% in this match. Based on Game of the Decade, Melee was expected to get 55%. For about 9 hours or so, this was a perfectly normal match, and Melee was on track for a very comfortable, and very predictable 55-45 win. Melee did its usual thing of dominating the board vote before bleeding percentage, but given the match was well in line to fall in line with the x-stats, there wasn't much concern. Don't tell that to Melee fans, though! They noticed the bleed in percentage, and began a pretty funny rally. I say it was funny because this match was never going to be in any doubt, but the Melee folks rallied anyway and had some really good results. At 9 am, Melee had 56% of the vote. This was a very respectable number given GSC's strength, and nothing to be ashamed of. After that when the rally kicked in, Melee just stomped this poll, to the tune of most updates being over 60%, and it even had a few over 70%. Melee would end the match at 60%, which is a very significant climb in percentage over the course of 15 hours. It would be an indicator of what Melee had to offer in future matches of this contest, though this rally was nothing compared to the raw power Melee would show later. This was basically a successful trial run. ### Ctes' Analysis This was one of the easiest four-packs to predict in the entire bracket. GSC are strong games. They're a solid step behind RBY which came clear in GotD, but they're strong regardless. Definitely a near-elite game, meaning top 20 or something. So in that sense, it really got wasted in the bracket. Not only did it not get as far as it should based on strength, but it didn't get a single debatable match either. I guess you can't make a perfect bracket, so something has to have it this way each time. That's just how it is. Now the only thing interesting about this match is that, Melee got rallied quite a lot. It was winning without any trouble from the start, but don't let the final result fool you. Melee doesn't naturally beat GSC by this much. It started out by this much due to the insane board vote it has, but then it got down and stayed at 55-56%. That's how much Melee would naturally beat GSC by. Then the rally happened and boosted it another 5%. It's really weird. First of all, why would anybody care enough to rally for a game that was already easily winning? What's the point, why bother? Secondly, how was it so successful? I mean, this is far from the strongest rally ever, but it's noticeable and most rallies aren't really. It seems stupid in the long run, as people can get tired from hearing about the contest, but that didn't happen with Melee, so maybe it isn't stupid. Still, waste of effort today. I'm not quite sure if they feared a Pokemon rally, but that was never going to happen. We took this pretty lightly. I don't think people really realized how dangerous a rallied Melee could be at this point. This is due to the fact that it's one of the strongest games on the site in itself. But it also wasn't at its full force yet. Scoring 60% on GSC is impressive, but Chrono Trigger was dominating so heavily in its match that those 60% meant nothing. At least we didn't think so at this point. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6117&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=67) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (10)Kingdom Hearts II vs (2)The Last of Us 2015 _source: (10)Kingdom Hearts II vs (2)The Last of Us 2015 (revid 84357)_ ## Results **Round Two** '''**'Saturday**, November 21, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 1 - **Match \#:** 68 - **Match Date:** Saturday, November 21, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Kingdom Hearts II - 56.21% 85 for - 8 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Kingdom Hearts II - 29.08% The winner of MGS4 vs KH2 was always going to stomp this match. I'm sure The Last of Us is a good game (KP is recommending it, so it's guaranteed to be!), but it was clearly overseeded in this contest. It had no business being a 2, and this match very quickly showed us why. 40% on Kingdom Hearts 2 is a fine result since KH2 is a pretty strong game, but it's not a 2 seed performance. Leonhart4 was kind enough in the stats topic to give us a bracket based off raw x-stats, which needs to be documented somewhere so why not throw it into the PCA? \(1\) Undertale vs (16) Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft \(8\) Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty vs (9) Tales of Symphonia \(5\) Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4 vs (12) Shenmue \(4\) Mega Man X vs (13) Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King \(6\) The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion vs (11) Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos \(3\) Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots vs (14) Bayonetta 2 \(7\) Okami vs (10) Dark Souls \(2\) Super Mario Bros. 3 vs (15) Ratchet & Clank: Up Your Arsenal \(1\) Fallout 3 vs (16) Age of Empires II: The Age of Kings \(8\) Skies of Arcadia vs (9) The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt \(5\) Castlevania: Symphony of the Night vs (12) Halo: Combat Evolved \(4\) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker vs (13) Baldur’s Gate II: Shadows of Amn \(6\) Mass Effect vs (11) Red Dead Redemption \(3\) Super Metroid vs (14) Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 3 \(7\) Final Fantasy IV vs (10) Donkey Kong Country 2: Diddy’s Kong Quest \(2\) Kingdom Hearts II vs (15) Planescape: Torment \(1\) Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green vs (16) Destiny \(8\) Halo 3 vs (9) Banjo-Kazooie \(5\) Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars vs (12) World of Warcraft \(4\) GoldenEye 007 vs (13) Perfect Dark \(6\) Super Mario Galaxy vs (11) Mario Kart 8 \(3\) Final Fantasy X vs (14) Shovel Knight \(7\) Half-Life vs (10) Paper Mario \(2\) The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess vs (15) Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare \(1\) Super Mario 64 vs (16) The Walking Dead \(8\) Demon’s Souls vs (9) Sonic the Hedgehog 2 \(5\) Resident Evil 2 vs (12) BioShock Infinite \(4\) Tetris vs (13) Borderlands 2 \(6\) Metal Gear Solid vs (11) Suikoden II \(3\) The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past vs (14) Uncharted 2: Among Thieves \(7\) Animal Crossing: New Leaf vs (10) Final Fantasy XII \(2\) Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal vs (15) Sid Meier’s Civilization V \(1\) Chrono Trigger vs (16) Binding of Isaac: Rebirth \(8\) Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic vs (9) Mass Effect 2 \(5\) The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind vs (12) The World Ends With You \(4\) Half-Life 2 vs (13) Minecraft \(6\) Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater vs (11) Silent Hill 2 \(3\) Final Fantasy Tactics vs (14) Valkyria Chronicles \(7\) Grand Theft Auto V vs (10) Starcraft \(2\) The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs (15) Nine Hours, Nine Persons, Nine Doors \(1\) Super Smash Bros. Melee vs (16) Zero Escape: Virtue’s Last Reward \(8\) Grand Theft Auto: Vice City vs (9) Xenogears \(5\) Final Fantasy VIII vs (12) Bloodborne \(4\) Super Smash Bros. for Wii U vs (13) Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate \(6\) BioShock vs (11) Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas \(3\) Final Fantasy VI vs (14) Deus Ex \(7\) Life is Strange vs (10) EarthBound \(2\) The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim vs (15) Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney: Trials & Tribulations \(1\) Super Mario World vs (16) Splatoon \(8\) Batman: Arkham City vs (9) Fallout: New Vegas \(5\) Diablo II vs (12) Dragon Age: Origins \(4\) Portal vs (13) Mother 3 \(6\) Super Mario Galaxy 2 vs (11) Resident Evil \(3\) The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask vs (14) Assassin’s Creed II \(7\) Shadow of the Colossus vs (10) Xenoblade Chronicles \(2\) Final Fantasy VII vs (15) Team Fortress 2 \(1\) Mass Effect 3 vs (16) Cave Story \(8\) Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door vs (9) Chrono Cross \(5\) Kingdom Hearts vs (12) Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain \(4\) Final Fantasy IX vs (13) Pokemon X/Y \(6\) Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney vs (11) Fire Emblem: Awakening \(3\) The Last of Us vs (14) Super Mario Maker \(7\) Resident Evil 4 vs (10) Portal 2 \(2\) Metroid Prime vs (15) Journey The Last of us Might be a 3 in the raw bracket, but it really feels more like a 4 or a 5. Not much else to say about this match outside of how cool it was to see Melee/GSC and KH2/Last of Us finishing with the exact same percentage. Given Last of Us and GSC are obviously no where close to one another in strength, any hopes for a KH2 \> Melee upset were thrown out the window. ### Ctes' Analysis This match was never really in doubt, but when The Last of Us completely destroyed Halo 3, it did stir up some discussion. Every expert knew this was never going to be close though. Kingdom Hearts II was a round 3 lock a minute into its round 1 match. RPG's will always be favored on this site, and while Kingdom Hearts II is somewhat new, The Last of Us is much more recent. It's just that Halo has fallen a whole damn lot. It was clear from the Minecraft match. Had their actually been a rally, then that would've of course been different, but Halo let an unrallied Minecraft get somewhat close to it and I don't need to see Minecraft in action to determine it's terrible on this site. However, The Last of Us does deserve some praise here. Sure, it was never close to winning at all, but Kingdom Hearts II is a very strong game, and The Last of Us is only about 3% away from what Metal Gear Solid 4 did. And while that game might have disappointed, it's still pretty strong. It just drew a very unfortunate round 1 game. The fifth game is the only one with no noticeable strength. The Last of Us definitely deserves to get back into another contest. Along with Skyrim, Mass Effect 2 and Smash 4, it was among the games released since Game of the Decade to have some noticable strength. Of those four, it'd probably only beat Mass Effect 2, but that's not bad at all either. It's a shame it didn't get to have its deserved rematch with A Link Between World from GotY 2013, but the latter didn't even make the bracket. Of the four games I just mentioned, The Last of Us stands out. The other's are part of well-established series. Mass Effect might be somewhat recent and Skyrim is the strongest entry in that series, but still, well-established series that helped them. The Last of Us is completely original. It's really impressive that a game not connected to anything else could do this well on a site that heavily prefers older games. It's in a really tough division too, put it elsewhere and we might see it do pretty darn good! I hope that'll be the case in a different contest. Oh yeah, and if we do get a Game of the Decade contest in 2020, I hope this game get claim a semi-final spot. It's definitely not impossible! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6118&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=68) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Final Fantasy VI vs (8)Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door 2015 _source: (1)Final Fantasy VI vs (8)Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door 2015 (revid 84358)_ ## Results **Round Two** '''**'Saturday**, November 22, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 2 - **Match \#:** 69 - **Match Date:** Sunday, November 22, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy VI - 66.58% 94 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Final Fantasy VI - 65.22% Round 2 is usually the round where we take out the trash, especially when 1 seeds are involved. Almost every 1 seed wins in round 1, and almost always you see that 1 seed move on to beat the 8/9 winner. There are rare exceptions, but that's how seeded tournaments work. Final Fantasy 6 beating Paper Mario here was a predictable result, and was just filler en route to the hyped FF6 matches. There was a lot of debate over whether Wind Waker could beat FF6, and there was even more debate over a potential FF6/FF7 showdown. You can thank this poll for that: Yes the entire poll only got 22854 votes, but FF7 has been eating hilarious upsets for years in these contests. Why couldn't FF6 take advantage? And because this PCA has been loaded with me looking things up and providing LISTS™, why not a list of every 8/9 winner that's beaten a 1 seed 1v1? I'm also including 4/5 winners that have beaten 1 seeds when divisions are seeded 1-8. That's it. 4 times. Two of those were 4/5 \> 1 upsets, with the only two actual 8/9 \> 1 upsets being from this very contest. Pretty neat how it's almost as rare as a 16 beating a 1 (obligatory LOL Halo), and it's a good testament to how well our brackets are usually set up. Usually! ### Ctes' Analysis Obviously this match was never going to be interesting in the slightest. It was all about whether or not Paper Mario II could avoid a doubling, and quite unfortunately it couldn't. This is one of my favorite games, but you gotta set yourself realistic goals for it! Getting to round 2 was the goal, but avoiding a doubling here too would be nice. Anyway, some matches just isn't interesting and this is one of them. There is practically nothing to say, everything went as expected. Plus, tt's not even very useful for determining any of Final Fantasy VI's upcoming matches. It had an easy run so far, the test would begin when it faced Wind Waker in round 3. Final Fantasy VI looked a little better than Wind Waker today, although it's minimal. TTYD and Knights of the Old Republic should be expected to be roughly equals, showing Final Fantasy VI had the advantage in round 3, but it's difficult to determine for sure. It's interesting to note that TTYD didn't appear to have fallen but just stayed around the same strength while the first Paper Mario ended up looking rather weak. That does not initially make any sense, but there is perhaps an explanation, saved for when Super Mario RPG came out of its division. I hope we continue to see TTYD, it might not be a powerhouse and never will be, but it's strong enough to make some interesting round 1 matches. Its match with Tales of Symphonia was decent enough. Can you imagine a match with KOTOR? I think that one would be really good! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6119&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=69) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic vs (4)The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker 2015 _source: (5)Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic vs (4)The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker 2015 (revid 84359)_ ## Results **Round Two**   Sunday, November 22, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 2 - **Match \#:** 70 - **Match Date:** Sunday, November 22, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: The Wind Waker - 65.18% 94 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zelda: The Wind Waker - 52.18% This match wasn't much to speak of, since we all knew Wind Waker would win. The name of the game here was prepping for the big Final Fantasy 6 vs Wind Waker match in round 3. Wind Waker was expected to get about 60% based on Game of the Decade, so getting 63% was right on cue with what was supposed to happen, if not a little better. The comparison to Final Fantasy 6 at this point was a bit weird, since Thousand-Year Door didn't make the 2009 contest. We also had the whole thing where this contest was a massive celebration of the 1990s. It was expected to get 70% on the original Paper Mario based on 2009, then it went out and got 67% on Thousand-Year Door. There was nothing conclusive here either way, since everything fell into the gray area. Our only real conclusion here was "Final Fantasy 6 vs Wind Waker should be really close", which is all you can really hope for when heading into a hyped match. It's not good when you get something like Chrono Trigger destroying things while FFX embarrasses itself. We all knew what would win before it happened there. With FF6/Wind Waker, there was a real question going in. That's a good thing. ### Ctes' Analysis That match wass not particularly interesting, but I do believe Knights of the Old Republic actually looks pretty good, which is nice to see. There are so few Western games doing well on this site, so that's an accomplishment in itself, but a game that was only released on Xbox and PC avoiding a double from a Zelda game is impressive. Wind Waker is not the strongest Zelda obviously, but it is a pretty strong game. All the 3D Zelda games are. That is not counting Skyward Sword that didn't make the bracket and is also from the late Wii years and relies on motion controls which often doesn't work as intended. KOTOR getting almost 37% here is a good showing everything considered. I know that it has Star Wars in the title, but it's against a Zelda game. I'm sure the Zelda franchise would destroy the Star Wars franchise here and I doubt anyone doubts that. This is a legitimate good showing. That said, Wind Waker probably takes the title as the weakest Zelda game of the ones that made the contest. It was probably only doubtful which of it and Twilight Princess was less strong, but I think Wind Waker is the right choice for that. It looked somewhat good in round 1 depending on how strong you would guess Pokemon XY to be, but it didn't look that impressive today. I fully believe Twilight Princess would've scored a doubling here. We might've already known that Wind Waker was the weakest of the five Zelda games in the contest. It did look like that in Game of the Decade too, but with it losing to Majora's Mask and Twilight Princess losing to Brawl, it couldn't truly be judged. Wind Waker still had a chance to prove itself though. It's upcomming match against Final Fantasy VI was semi-debated pre-contest. Final Fantasy VI was a clear favorite, but Wind Waker had a fair amount of supporters and you can't blame people for it. How often does Square win a debatable match against Nintendo? Or rather, how often does Final Fantasy win a debatable match against Zelda? It never happens! So while Final Fantasy VI clearly looked better today, that match was still up for grabs. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6120&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=70) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Super Smash Bros. for Wii U vs (11)Mass Effect 2015 _source: (3)Super Smash Bros. for Wii U vs (11)Mass Effect 2015 (revid 84360)_ ## Results **Round Two**   Sunday, November 22, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 2 - **Match \#:** 71 - **Match Date:** Sunday, November 22, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Smash Bros. Wii U - 60.05% 92 for - 2 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Smash Bros. Wii U - 44.48% Did I go on my huge rant about how good Smash 4 is during my round 1 writeup? I did? Good. Smash 4 is absolutely godlike. I mean yeah the online is a laggy mess, but at least Nintendo bothered trying this time. It's a damn shame Smash 4 is saddled by the Wii U. I'm all for no one caring about the Wii U, don't get me wrong, but Smash 4 is an all-time great game and deserves to have Melee-like strength in contests. The Smash community was clearly ready to go berserk this contest, and I would have fully loved Smash 4 getting all that support. Not that I'm complaining about Melee getting it, but Smash 4 really deserves it as well. As for a 55-45 victory over Mass Effect, it was a good match for both games. Smash 4 did the usual Smash thing where it rolled the board vote before bleeding percentage. 55-45 is a good win here, but hardly the kind of performance that would scare people into thinking it could beat FF7. For Mass Effect, 45% on Smash 4 after upsetting Galaxy 2 was a solid performance. Can't complain about a respectable loss to an upper tier Nintendo title, and what is easily the strongest game on the Wii U. It would however lead to Mass Effect 2 being the only remaining game in the series left in this contest, and that game was due for a rather legendary struggle in its own right. ### Ctes' Analysis This match was over from the moment it began, but man, it screwed with many users in the oracle challenge. A very well received Smash title was not supposed to allow Mass Effect to get above 45%. Most people guessed Smash 4 to win with about 60% or at least close to. It was not at all close to do that. Of course, this was mostly viewed as a major disappointing performance from Smash and not a surprisingly good performance from Smash. There were little to no talks about Mass Effect being legit, or about Mass Effect 2 looking more likely to create upsets in the bottom division, it was pretty much all Wii U bashing. Smash 4 itself has pretty much no haters, so most of the trash talk was not directly aimed at the game. The reason for it not nearly being as strong as Brawl was when that was released, despite Brawl getting very mixed reviews, lies not within the game itself, but its circumstances. First and foremost, there's the title. Melee and Brawl are good and catchy titles. For “3DS and Wii U” are a lame cliche of a pun, and it's really uncreative too. There's a reason this game still goes by Smash 4 even after getting an official title. You never hear anyone say Smash 2 or Smash 3 about the others. It's stupid that it's like that, but I actually believe that it drags it down. It also leads me to the next reason for it being weaker than it should be; it's on the Wii U. That's never really a good thing. It's not as bad a console as people make it out to be, you can play with a good controller and there are good games on it, but in general people view it quite negatively. There's also the fact that it's only a year old. Being recent helped only one game this contest and that wasn't Smash 4. So let's also praise Mass Effect a bit, it did really good today. In retrospect, it makes a lot of sense. Given what we just discussed about Smash 4, something that wouldn't surprise anyone, that Mass Effect is well received, and Shepard doing pretty great in the characters contests, this is not such a weird result. Mass Effect did pretty good in Game of the Decade, but people simply saw a popular Smash game and didn't think twice. When you don't think twice about the match, it usually doesn't have the winning game below 55%. Despite this disappointing performance today, Smash 4 is a Wii U game that just reached round 3 by beating a fairly good opponent. This puts it a bit below Resident Evil 4 in Game of the Decade, the difference this contest being that being a new game sucks more than ever. The Wii U might not have an elite game, but it has a strong one, and when you look at it that way, Smash 4 suddenly doesn't look too bad. This match also redeems Super Mario Galaxy 2 quite a lot, but almost no one gave that any thought. Mario had a fine contest, but people ignored so many important things regarding the Mario game matches. Super Mario Galaxy 2 is projected to barely beat The Last of Us now. That's pretty darn great for a recent game, even if my example here is also a recent game. This went unnoticed though. After today, Undertale completely stole the spotlight and people forgot about this match. At the same time, Super Mario Bros. 3 became the first \#1 seed, continuing to make Mario an easy target. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6121&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=71) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (10)Halo: Combat Evolved vs (2)Final Fantasy VII 2015 _source: (10)Halo: Combat Evolved vs (2)Final Fantasy VII 2015 (revid 82312)_ ## Results **Round Two**   Sunday, November 22, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 2 - **Match \#:** 72 - **Match Date:** Sunday, November 22, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy VII - 74.53% 94 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Final Fantasy VII - 77.48% It's a shame Minecraft didn't manage to upset Halo in round 1, because Minecraft in this spot could have been hilarious. Not that the match wasn't hilarious with Halo here, but it was for the opposite reason. Here we had a match between two games that are historically anti-voted to hell, and it led to one of the funniest blowouts ever. As fate would have it, there are actually games out there that FF7 can avoid anti-votes against. Halo 1 is clearly one of those games, and this match was such a merciless beating that it tricked us all into thinking FF7 was fine this contest. Don't forget that before this contest happened, a ton of people picked FF7 to lose early -- and by "lose early", I mean not make the final. The guru picks tell the story better than I ever could: When FF7 went out there and beat Halo so badly that it overshot most Oracle predictions, people noticed. This was the FF7 of old that took no prisoners and absolutely annihilated the 2004 contest. I know Halo anti-votes were a huge part of that, but this was probably FF7's best match of the entire contest. This match happened before things like rallies and "sharing the front page with Undertale", and was probably FF7's maximum natural strength on full display. We'll get into the sheer madness of Melee/FF7/Undertale/Mario 64 in due time, but for now this was just a massive celebration for us FF7 fans. We had to watch one upset after another, and seeing it just beat the shit out of Halo was awesome. Don't forget that a lot of us were worried about the game losing to freaking Minecraft. When you really look at it, this was probably the maximum spot for FF7 hype in this contest. Full remake hype was in full swing, the Cloud announcement for Smash 4 had people going nuts, and this was before "episodic content" ruined everyone's buzz. Worth noting here is for as much as Halo sucks, this was the worst blowout it had ever suffered in a contest. It's true. Here are all four of Halo's losses: Thank you based FF7. ### Ctes' Analysis This match is rather hilarious. I mean, these two games have always been leagues apart, but this is still a pretty big blowout. The Halo franchise, and the first game in particular, wasn't this bad back in the other contests, even though it's mostly known for flopping completely as a \#1 seed in round 1 against Starcraft back in 2004. The series has fallen a damn lot. The only reason there's even a Halo game in round 2 is because Minecraft has the same reasons to be weak on this site as Halo has, plus at the same time, Minecraft has no reason to do good. While we're at that, Halo let Minecraft get close to, despite the latter being completely unrallied. Halo has fallen a lot. There are two reasons for this decline. The first is that the average age of the site is a lot more than it used to be. Halo used to have one of the greatest ASV votes in contest due to being huge was kids. This obviously contributes to its decline. It is however, not the main reason. The main reason is that Halo has become mainstream in the same way Grand Theft Auto, Call of Duty and Assassin's Creed had. Similar examples of games that used to be somewhat strong here, with a few of them having GotY titles on them. They're not mainstream in the same sense that Mario is, yes, everyone has played Mario and literally ever person alive would recognize him, but no one plays Mario games like they're all or nothing. A bunch of so called casuals gamers does this with Halo and the other franchises I just mentioned among others. They're so huge in casual gaming that it has gotten really annoying. In short, that's what there is to it. Halo might not ever win a match again here, and I doubt we'll see a Halo game that is not the first again if things stay this way, but they might change back again. Remember back in the heyday of Pokemon, when it was literally the hugest thing? Pokemon sucked in the early contests, a lot. Pikachu struggled to beat PaRappa the Rapper and was destroyed by Cloud and even Fox. GSC lost to Xenogears and Pokemon missed out on a bunch of contests completely until around when Gen IV came along and we saw Pokemon come back again, with all Pokemon winning at least a match and being highlighted by Pikachu and Mewtwo reaching top 16. Look at how Pokemon then did it 2013. These things can easily be turned around, but as of now, Halo has hit rock bottom. Final Fantasy VII has not exactly had it easy either. It has been a target for anti-votes for a long time due to its former status as the greatest thing in existance. Despite it being worthy of this title, it has caused a backlash. It's victories in the early contests still haunt it too. Yet it was able to destroy Halo today. Exceeding your prediction percentage in round 2 for a game like FFVII is pretty great, although it should be mentioned that Halo and Minecraft might be casual bait and in the case of the latter, rally bait too I suppose. It does seem this contest as if Final Fantasy VII redeemed itself a little. Chrono Trigger looked really strong, but Final Fantasy VII didn't look like it would bow down in a match against it. The 2004 finale rematch we assumed to get at this point was looking to be very exciting today! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6122&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=72) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Super Mario Bros. 3 vs (8)Pokémon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green 2015 _source: (1)Super Mario Bros. 3 vs (8)Pokémon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green 2015 (revid 84365)_ ## Results **Round Two** Monday, November 23, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 3 - **Match \#:** 73 - **Match Date:** Monday, November 23, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Pokémon Red/Blue - 52.08% 76 for - 17 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Pokémon Red/Blue - 39.82% This match was just brutal to watch. I have no problem with Pokemon whatsoever and have no issue with it winning, but seeing Mario 3 just get decimated like this was heartbreaking. My childhood just evaporated right before my eyes with this one; Mario 3 was the video game for me as a kid. There was Mario 1 and Mario 2 and Zelda 1 and Zelda 2 and Tetris, but Mario 3 was the absolute pinnacle. To see it get thoroughly destroyed like this was really something else, not that there weren't obvious extenuating factors. Pre-contest, this was the argument everyone was having. Picking the correct paths of these two games likely meant winning the contest, because there was more at stake beyond 2 points. Mario 3, Mario World, or Mario 64 could have all potentially done anything in between losing to Pokemon or making the finals of the contest, and it meant for some amazing hype. Personally I thought Mario 3 was the easy choice, because outside of IT'S FREAKING MARIO™ reasons, we had these two polls: We'd seen a hyped Pokemon game get hyped up to the level of a 1 seed from a more powerful Nintendo franchise before. Majora's Mask smacked it down. The trainers got bandwagoned hard during rivalry rumble, and Mario smacked them down. So I thought for sure this match would be more of the same. Now before getting into the Undertale rally, I really want to put to rest the idea that Mario 3 would have won a fair match. I can admit defeat, and this contest really showed us that Mario's "magic" is just completely gone. He's actually become the contest version of Mario in Smash Bros, which is kind of hilarious. He's very hard to rally against, but he's also very hard to rally for. He's just kind of the standard bearer, which is a pretty funny place for him to be in. People will point to the Vivi loss as his magic disappearing, but really it was this match and Super Metroid \> Galaxy. Anyway, look at the beginning of this poll. Pokemon won the board vote, and while Mario 3 fought like hell to keep things from getting out of control, Pokemon was slowly trending up. Then the power hour ended, and Pokemon just took off. Some people will say the Undertale rallies being there at the start meant Mario 3 was screwed from the beginning, but I don't think there's some alternate universe where Mario could have won this match. This was trending toward Pokemon finishing with a comfortable 55-45 win right when the power hour ended, and if Undertale never happened do we really think Mario gets this any closer than 53-47? It's like the Mario series had any extra luster this contest. The other point is Undertale didn't get berserk until well past noon. Pokemon had things locked up by then and the match had already been 55-45 for hours. I imagine this is a result Mario fans would have been okay with, but once the Undertale rally truly took hold this match just got brutal. From 1:30 pm onward, Pokemon rode the wave of being the beneficiary of rally love. This match went from 55-45 to Pokemon pulling in updates well over 65%, and some hit well higher than that. It turned the match from a respectable loss for Mario into an absolute beating, and things ended with Pokemon getting an insane 63-37 win. Needless to say, the hype for Pokemon vs Undertale hit a fever pitch once this all ended, and for good reason. If Pokemon could benefit a lot from Undertale's rally, logic would say that a lot of the people being rallied for that match would favor Pokemon. Granted this would assume Undertale beat Mario World, which was a massively tall order, and is something we'll go over when we're actually talking about Undertale's match itself. Worth noting here is Mario 3 was the first 1 seed to lose in this contest, and it was the first 1 seed to lose in round 2 to an 8 or a 9. We had seen a couple of 4/5 \> 1 upsets in the past, which are technically the same thing, but there's just something different about seeing 8/9 \> 1. Maybe it's the NCAA fan in me. ### Ctes' Analysis This match was probably the single most debated match of the contest. Before we learned of Undertale's massive rally capabilities, this match would decide a lot of the bracket. Two very strong games that had potential to go very far met in round 2. RBY was the board favorite until the results of their round 1 matches came in and Super Mario Bros. 3 was depicted as the heavy favorite. But the thing is, the round 1 results really should've put RBY as the favorite. I'm not usually one to brag, but I want to take pride in the pre-rally result of this match. I defended RBY like crazy from the Tetris match and until today. The only person I recall being with me on it was MWC, who half the board has blocked and most of the other half doesn't listen too. I tried hard to argue that the round 1 result should set RBY as a slight favorite, but my theories were constantly shut down. The day before this match, I made a topic specifically about this and I don't think a single person that posted in it agreed with me, I discussed with user \_Dog most of the time. Now, when the match started the two were initially were close, with RBY very slowly building a lead. At the 25 minute mark, SMB3 made quite the cut and people were quick to assume RBY had simply won the board vote and SMB3 would now dominate until whenever Undertale rallying kicked in for real, but RBY took it all back the next update and never looked back again. It was clear that RBY would take this match 52-53% doing the first few hours of it. It's hard to judge when exactly Undertale rallying actually began. It was probably partly there from the beginning, but don't misjudge that, SMB3 was never going to win this match any day. It's a shame that isn't as clear as it could've been, but at least most experts agreed on it. I actually like SMB3 more, but seeing this was so satisfying. I had been pointlessly arguing for it for so long and to see it play out just as I said was just really nice. I didn't see \_Dog again until after the contest. Don't know if he was around somewhere, but he disappeared from my topic from the day before completely and didn't see him around in the discussion topic either. Anyway, enough of that. It's a terrible shame that in a contest where people take every chance to laugh at Mario, one of the few games he has that could do some serious damage, a near elite game, is the first \#1 seed to be eliminated. Granted, GTAV lost the same round and to a Mario game even, but still, it sucked to see. SMB3 could've redeemed the series from the false negative spot it was in, but didn't get a chance because it was fed to the most underseeded game in the bracket. RBY absolutely deserves a \#1 seed no contest. This would'be been a close match, but beating SMB3 by a few percentage means that you're a near elite. A single thread about the match on the subreddit of Pokemon and all arguments are off. RBY showing itself as a legit contender for the second strongest game on the site today also makes Tetris a contender for the strongest game that lost in round 1 along with games like Kingdom Hearts and Oblivion. I think Tetris is the strongest of them though. RBY scoring such a great percentage on Tetris should've been a warning sign of RBY's strength and yet people saw it the other way around. But it's confirmed now. RBY definitely did not SFF Tetris, unless you expect Tetris to be a true contest beast. As I've said previously though, the SFF would've made no sense. Tetris was big on the gameboy, but that's unimportant when Tetris has been released on everything, naturally has overlap with everything in some way, and everyone has played it. Hardcore Tetris fans being the same people who are hardcore Pokemon fans makes no sense to begin with and even less sense is there to them all preferring RBy in the hypothetical situation, I mean, it's not like RBY does what Tetris does in a better way, they're completely different. If Tetris really had massive overlap favoring another game, it would have to be something similar and something old school, which does explain Zelda 1 destroying Tetris in 2004, although it probably also has something to do with Tetris being stronger today than then. Partly because of old games in general receiving a boost, but also because L-Block's victory clearly gave the series an overall boost. The final result of this match is sad. It was painful to watch as we bit our nails in excitement of the Fallout 3 vs. Undertale match. When that match was over all discussion was about Undertale, the board was a mess. At the same time though, we saw SMB3 getting completely destroyed in the most unfair way. We can safe the discussion about whether strong deciding outside rally forces are a good thing or not, but I believe we can all agree that rally spillover is quite a shame. Fortunately, no match in the contest was turned around by spillover, but it did bring some obnoxious results. This was one of them. RBY wins any day, but not by this much. I'd much rather have this match played out by itself, especially because it might've been somewhat good to follow. Don't get me wrong, if SMB3 actually attempted a comeback, a post on the Pokemon subreddit would've ended the match, but it could've been good! Instead, SMB3 got destroyed thanks to people that didn't even care about this match probably. People coming to vote for Undertale. It's really nice that Allen made it so easy to vote in all matches so we don't have huge differences in vote totals, but situations like these are the sole flaw of this wonderful format. RBY looked fantastic today, in raw strength and rally forces alike. There were two outcomes of the contest at this point. One was Undertale winning it all, or Undertale getting stopped by RBY. Later, Melee also turned out to be capable of giving it a shot but we had no idea about that at this point. If RBY had met Undertale's rally powers this round, it absolutely wins, I have no doubt about that and the same probably goes for round 3 too. RBY would have absolutely no trouble making it there. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6123&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=73) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (12)Sonic the Hedgehog 2 vs (4)Uncharted 2: Among Thieves 2015 _source: (12)Sonic the Hedgehog 2 vs (4)Uncharted 2: Among Thieves 2015 (revid 84366)_ ## Results **Round Two** Monday, November 23, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 3 - **Match \#:** 74 - **Match Date:** Monday, November 23, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - 54.41% 83 for - 10 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - 25.64% During round 2's Undertale rally, two of the matches were relatively normal and unaffected. This was one of them, with FF8 vs Super Mario World being the other. Some people thought Sonic 2 might fold to Uncharted 2 in this match, and those who thought Sonic 2 would win did not think it would be a beating to this degree. The Oracle undershot Sonic by a fair amount, and it would have happened even without Undertale going on. Sonic started this poll well above 60%, and only gained a couple of percentage points in the afternoon when the rally showed up. Worth noting here is that of the 4 matches that happened on this particular day, this one had the lowest vote totals. It was a damn impressive win by Sonic 2, though the reasons for this happening were unclear. All we had ever seen from the game before this was beating Shining Force a couple times, an SFF beating at the hands of Mario World in 2004, and that weird FF6/Link's Awakening/Sonic 2/Mortal Kombat 2 match from 2009. I suppose one could make the case Sonic 2 was a hidden beast this entire time, but that contradicts Portal 2 in round 1. I don't really think Portal 2 has much strength. The true reason is likely Uncharted 2's Game of the Decade run being extremely overrated, plus this contest having a massive theme of old games shitting all over new games in a fair bracket. This match was one of the many examples of it, but the sheer level of this blowout was still impressive. Not that the love would last, because the rallyers abandoned Sonic rather quickly next round. By the way, Sonic 2 is the best Sonic game. Being the first one to let you crouch and rev up like a car was awesome, plus it introduced Tails and Super Sonic. Who doesn't love Tails and Super Sonic? ### Ctes' Analysis This match was also a huge somewhat significantly from rally spillover. This probably would've been a 60-40 victory without rally spillover, Sonic 2 was easily winning right from the start, but this would have been far from a doubling. Pokemon is easily the series that would receive the biggest boost from Undertale's rallying, but Mario at least does to some extend. Sonic does a lot too and Uncharted does in no way whatsoever. This was a painful match to watch for me. Uncharted 2 is my favorite PS3 game and probably top 20 of all time. Sonic 2 is an excellent game too, but in a contest where old games were already heavily favored, Uncharted 2 did not deserve to get destroyed even more than it was already doing to be. Of course, this match was never in any doubt, rally spillover or not. It was pretty obvious from before the contest that the winner of Sonic 2 vs. Portal 2 would go ahead and beat Uncharted 2 in the battle of sequels, though I must say that before rally spillover I expected Uncharted 2 to be a bit closer than this. Games from last generation in general are pretty weak here, in particular ones that aren't part of a well-established franchise. Uncharted 2 had a prequel yes, but it was the same that made the franchise what it was today. The first one is mediocre, but nothing special. Not to mention the prequel was on the same console. The Last of Us looked like it would've given Sonic 2 quite a match to name a similar PS3 exclusive. I would've expect the difference between those two to be that big. We have Fallout 3 looking really great next to this match and it did in the past as well. That's multi-platform, but still! Uncharted 2 definitely also sufferede from NostalgiaFAQs being bigger than ever. It would surely beat Halo today, but it would lose to games it wouldn't have lost to in 2010, that's for sure. Glad to see it have some appreciation through its seeding at least! With a sad disappointing result from Uncharted 2, it's nice to see the sole Sonic representative of the bracket due good. NostalgiaFAQs is great for a series that sucked for many recent years and even if it's generally okay again, is nowhere near where it used to be. It's similar to how it was nice seeing the only Mega Man game exceed expectations. Many of us had Sonic 2 going to round 3, but Portal 2 was the clear favorite. Uncharted 2 might be the casual favorite I guess, though I could imagine both it and Portal 2 having a fair share. Portal 2 lost early, but at least it didn't get to suffer from a rally spillover destruction that Uncharted 2 did today and Sonic 2 would next round. There was actually some people arguing that Sonic 2 doing this well today would mean it could avoid a bigger beatdown from RBY than it usually would've. I can see where people from coming from, but there's a clear hierarchy in that regard. Wonder where Animal Crossing would fit into that! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6124&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=74) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Fallout 3 vs (6)Undertale 2015 _source: (3)Fallout 3 vs (6)Undertale 2015 (revid 84363)_ ## Results **Round Two** Monday, November 23, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 3 - **Match \#:** 75 - **Match Date:** Monday, November 23, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Undertale - 48.89% 47 for - 46 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Undertale - 6.83% There was a lot of hype for this match once Undertale beat Mass Effect 3 the way it did, because a lot of people were crying that our contest was once again ruined by outsiders. Never mind the fact that Undertale still had to go out and win matches, or that it was facing Fallout 3 on the heels of massive Fallout 4 hype. Let's not forget how strong Fallout 3 looked against Life is Strange pre-rally, with that match happening on the day of Fallout 4's release. There wasn't a whole lot of logic here though, just a question of whether or not Undertale could continue rallying past progressively stronger opposition and a ton of Nintendo games. But before getting to all that, the hype seemed short-lived. Undertale absolutely got its ass whipped at the beginning of this poll by people looking to cut off the head of the snake early, to the tune of Fallout 3 having nearly 73% at the freeze. Undertale would bleed more than 10% overnight, but put forth no resistance whatsoever as Fallout continued building up this massive lead. On top of this, the rally points were all there. tumblr was firing, Reddit had their topics going, Facebook had their stuff going, and none of it seemed to matter at all. Fallout 4 hype seemed to be more than enough to end Undertale, even though bleeding all that percentage overnight was still impressive. Remember, we were very new to tumblr's affect on a contest during this match and didn't realize how backloaded they were with bringing votes in. So at the time, most people saw that the rally was on and was doing little more than a percentage bleed overnight. Then the morning vote hit, and the poll stayed at 61-39. There was a very minor loss in percentage as we crossed lunch, and all Fallout 3 had to do to win the match at this point was prevent Undertale from getting its second massive afternoon rally in a row. A little after lunch, Undertale's rally started picking up as more and more people hopped on the bandwagon on social media. What was 80-90 vote updates were quickly turning into 130-140 vote updates, and the writing was beginning to show up on the wall of what was coming. Lady Hieress, a huge Dark Souls fan on tumblr, was credited with starting the topic that would turn this match around. At 1:10 pm, Fallout 3 had a lead of 6834 votes. It was the biggest lead Fallout 3 would have during the match. We're going to pause here to bring something up that bothered me quite a lot when I saw it. As a result of this match, people went and caused this nonsense: ((I gotta be honest, I seeked the help of someone who had much more Undertale followers in their blog to help me spread it, but some people found their tumblr and started sending message threats of death and rape, so this time, I’ll have to ask my own followers to help me as a unit, so no one gets the shit end of the deal but me.)) I'm sure this was done by people like SvenGoolie and the like, but it's still completely ridiculous. Sending rape and death threats because of a video game popularity contest on GameFAQs. Very mature. This was the beginning of the end of Undertale's rally purely being done for good intentions. What started as "hey we have a great new game, hopefully it can do well and more people will play it!" turned into idiots sending threats online and fanning the flames of "lol look at these turbonerds getting all mad, make sure to vote Undertale to piss them off more". The trends for Undertale radically changed once the internet saw this crap, too. In Undertale's first two matches, the rally took forever to get going and it had to come back from 9252 and 6834 votes, respectively. You think it was going to pull something like that off against Mario World or Pokemon? Hell no. Good job whining and being the key to your own destruction, crybabies. This is the sort of thing that makes me support rallies so hard. If your life is so pathetic that a game losing a poll sets off your rage alarm, you 100% deserve to be on the ass end of rallies causing your favorite games to lose until you grow up. It's basic wrestling logic; if you no-sell something you hate, it gets depushed. But if you act like absolute morons, like the typical NXT/WWE crowd does every time Eva Marie or John Cena comes out, what do you think will happen? The powers that be will go "hey we can make something happen with this" and make money off of your vitriol. So good job with all that whining about Undertale, Board 8. You brought this on yourself. Back to the match. That 6834 vote lead? Once Hieress's post got reblogged everywhere and the rally really picked up steam, Undertale went completely nuts. It went from getting about 40% of the vote every update to getting anywhere between 65 and 80% of the vote every update. But the really impressive part was just looking at the total votes it was bringing in, and how they would keep going up. This thing started in the 150 range at the beginning, then the rally got going and we were seeing updates in the 250-300 range, compared to Fallout 3 doing nothing extra at all. This led to a hundred or more votes getting erased every update, and it only got worse as the lead kept shrinking. Before long Undertale was pulling in 350-450 vote updates, and the entire 6834 vote lead was just demolished in a matter of hours. Remember how Fallout 3 had that peak lead at 1:10 pm? Yeah, Undertale took the lead at 5:25. Turning around 6834 votes in 4:15 is completely insane, and it didn't even slow down once taking the lead. It kept pulling in those massive 250-300 vote updates for almost the entirety of the rest of the match, and just left Fallout 3 in the dust. It would end up winning by 9381 votes, which is a total turnaround of 16215 votes, which is absolutely insane and was reminiscent of Draven's match against Ryu and Mega Man X in 2013. It wasn't quite the insane level of Draven during that match, but it was close enough to get crybaby brigade going. Had people just not whined in the first place, Undertale would not have beaten Mario World. But people did whine, which led to everything getting quoted and immortalized on social media. It was then that the Undertale run took on a whole new meaning. Will people learn their lesson and not do the same exact thing next contest when Linkle goes on some massive run? I doubt it. This would set up Undertale vs Super Mario World, which would be an ungodly mountain to climb under normal circumstances. Pre-whining I don't think Undertale would have stood a chance. Post-whining... well, we all know what happened. I for one support anything that puts crybabies in their place, especially when it's idiotic enough to make radical feminists look rational. I'm putting a different Undertale theme into every writeup for this contest, and for this match we'll just go with Waterfall. Because once that rally started, the impending flood was inevitable. ### Ctes' Analysis This was probably the most anticipated match of round 2 after round 1 ended. This match was supposed to be Fallout 3 easily taking of Mass Effect 3, but Undertale was the one game that came through with its rallying. Fallout 3 was obviously a much bigger challenge than Mass Effect 3, but now that the rally had gained momentum and some of out dear board regulars had acted as idiots, Undertale would be much stronger today. In a lot of people's eyes, we already had a contest winner in Undertale, nothing would be able to stop it. Others pointed to Ocarina of Time or RBY, while a fair share of people also believed it would end today. It didn't end up being the case, but there was some logic to it. Fallout 3 is a much stronger game, yes. If Undertale took as long as last time to get going, then no, it wouldn't stand a chance today, but I don't think anyone doubted that things would go faster this time. First minutes into the match and it was clear from the votals that people were ready. The guy who started the rally last round had explained that he'd do the same again, and it's likely the big names that shared his posts on tumblr would be prepared today. The best argument for a Fallout 3 victory was probably the idea that Fallout 3 would be able to rally on its own, something Mass Effect 3 could probably never do with how disliked it is among the franchise's own fans and also because it's some years old now. Don't get me wrong, I love Mass Effect 3, but that's the truth. Fallout 3 is also some years old, but the contest came just when Fallout 4 released. The community is big and it's very active right now. If they cared enough, then yes, that might be enough to stop this rally. Another thing was that people expected this rally to have a clear roof. There could only be so many people this could be shared to within tumblr that would care. At some point, the rallying would stop, and it would just take a game strong enough to withstand whatever amount of votes was the roof. I personally believe that it became clear today that this was not the case, but people kept this argument for rounds to come, in fact, I don't think it died completely until the semi-finals. Undertale was as strong as it needed to be. Sharing posts from the likes of Bracket_Entry, ExTha or MWC could easily provide Undertale with a good bunch of votes from anywhere, be it people that actually played it or not. It also helps that the rally spawned from people that just really liked the game, even if some hardcore supporters of the rally were huge jerks as well. The match started with Fallout 3 being above 70%, which in any other match would mean it was over. Fallout 3 started building a good lead, but the votals were insane, it was clear that this match was way more anticipated than any other, so for the people that supported Fallout 3 here, there was no time to rest assured of its victory yet. Fallout 3 made some very impressive gains, often getting close to 200. In only half an hour it was more than 1000 votes ahead. It certainly had the board vote. Its gains started slowing down, but they were still good. Less than one and a half hour into the match, Fallout 3 had increased its lead to 2000 votes, looking pretty great. But at the same time, it bled percentage like crazy. At the same time it reached a 2000 vote lead, it also went below a doubling going from above 70%. Percentage is not as important as the actual vote difference, but despite how solid a 2000 vote lead would've looked in any contest ever, but especially this one with the votals being the way they are, we witnessed Undertale shredding a 9000 vote lead last round. There were people arguing for the votals roof theory that means that Undertale had about the same strength as last time, only that all the votes were split more throughout the match. Had this been true, then things looked really great for Fallout 3 yes. At the same time, it was worth noting that none of the big names had shared the match yet. Fallout 3 was going great all things considered, it's a strong game, but it didn't look like it would win. Fallout 3 slowly but steadily extended its lead, but at the 3:35 mark, the vote difference remained the same, then at 3:45 Undertale made its first cut. A very small one, but still a cut. Overall, Fallout 3 still extended its lead during these hours, but Undertale was fighting back in the dead hours of the match. This would mean bad things when America awoke, and more specifically, the tumblr users. Fallout 3 managed to continue extending its lead throughout the morning, it was the ASV that was to be feared. Fallout 3 would ultimately peak at the 13:10 mark with a lead of 6834 votes. Undertale made a few small cuts, which meant little at first, as it had done that before. Suddenly though, it started cutting almost 100 votes an update and very soon it started often cutting more than that. A +6000 vote lead is no joke, but this would be more than enough to make it in time. Undertale was able to shred 1000 votes of the lead in merely half an hour. It was doing rapidly fast. Now was definitely the time to panic and act for Fallout 3 fans. Thing is, the situation is really unfortunate for a counter rally. A good rally is short and precise. Outside forces can't be expected to care about what is happening during the contest. You can't explain to a large group that Fallout 3 is likely to lose when it's 5000 votes ahead. People might vote, but then they'll think “Fallout 3 is winning no problem” and there'll be 0% chance of anyone further sharing it. None of these people will stay around to follow the match when it looks like it's over. Another thing a good rally needs is momentum, which Undertale had the whole day to built. The rallying was going from the beginning of the match, but didn't become strong enough until over 13 hours into the match. It's interesting to note that if we still had 12 hour matches, Undertale wouldn't have won the first four of its matches. It wouldn't even have gotten to the point where it looked threatening in round 1. This new format which allows 24 hour matches in round 1 without the contest becoming too long and dull allowed Undertale to have just enough time. Undertale would go crazy for a few hours before at the 17:25 mark taking the lead by force and never looking back. It took it 20 minutes to extend its lead above 1000 votes, there was no stopping it. In no time it was several thousand votes ahead. Now, this would be a good time to get a Fallout 3 rally going. You might be able to rally for it now, because it's behind, but it's very difficult. First of all, people had already “wasted” rallying at the best places to do it. You could post at them again, but people wouldn't care, they already went and saw how the match was going. Secondly, it's actually really difficult to rally for something that is losing so badly as Fallout 3 was here. That Undertale could do it was a miracle, it happens close to never. Finally, the momentum I talked about. It took Undertale over 13 hours to get rolling despite it having a previous match of rallying in the bank. With only six hours left, there was no way to get a Fallout 3 rally going in the first place, but particularly not when Undertale had one going to. The rally was to difficult to be countered. At this point, Undertale looked pretty unstoppable. Next round it would face Super Mario World, which everyone knows is a stronger game than Fallout 3, but that's not important here. Super Mario World doesn't have anywhere to get rallied and besides, the same things applies to that match, as they do today, only that Fallout 4 just came out, while nothing Mario just did. Honestly, Undertale looked like it could win it all now, but there was one final challenge waiting in its way. At the same time of this match, RBY made a joke of Super Mario Bros. 3. This audience clearly loved Pokemon too and Pokemon is a very active community. With some potential rally backlash and getting the Pokemon community in on this, there might be a chance to stop Undertale from destroying all competition. Unfortunate for the people that wanted Undertale gone, RBY would not meet Undertale next round, but in two rounds, meaning that Undertale had another round where it could gain momentum. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6125&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=75) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (10)Final Fantasy VIII vs (2)Super Mario World 2015 _source: (10)Final Fantasy VIII vs (2)Super Mario World 2015 (revid 84364)_ ## Results **Round Two** Monday, November 23, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 3 - **Match \#:** 76 - **Match Date:** Monday, November 23, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Mario World - 58.88% 89 for - 4 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Mario World - 59.93% There were two normal matches during the round 2 Undertale rally, this one and Sonic 2/Uncharted 2. Or rather, "normal" in the sense that the only real change was inflated vote totals. During round 1, Final Fantasy 8 made a pretty funny increase in percentage against Vice City once Undertale showed up. This, paired with Animal Crossing literally getting cuts on Mario World en route to a ridiculous percentage bleed, gave a very slim hope that Final Fantasy 8 might pull a miracle in this match. That hope was short-lived however, as Mario was well above 65% at the beginning of the poll and showed no bleed to speak of overnight once Square's best time hit. Sure there was a small bleed of 2-3%, but then the morning vote hit and erased it all. Then once the Undertale rally happened, it massively favored Super Mario World. There would be no hijinx here en route to Mario World getting a very easy 68-32 win. To say the Undertale/Mario World hype was insane after this happened doesn't even begin to cover it. If you went by Board 8, you would think it was the only match in round 3 at all! Shout-out to FF8, by the way. Coming out after FF7 was an impossible spot to be in, but FF8 was still a damn good game. It just suffered from "trying too hard because I'm following a legend" syndrome. Unfortunately round 2 is often about separating midcarders from contenders, and FF8 was definitely a midcarder going up against a contender. ### Ctes' Analysis After last round, there were people believing that Final Fantasy VIII would get to look really good today as a result of rally spillover. Final Fantasy VIII got to destroy Vice City more than it would've last round while Animal Crossing made Super Mario World bled percentage like crazy. I'm sure nobody expected Final Fantasy VIII to win today, just look good going out. Well, while Super Mario World definitely had the board vote, it seemed like this match would've had Super Mario World winning with about 63% under normal conditions. Super Mario World rose quite a bit when the rally kicked it. It wasn't as heavily favored as RBY and Sonic 2, but it wasn't close either. Turns out they just really love Animal Crossing and Pokemon on tumblr. It was assumed they didn't care for Mario, but that's not correct, they just have higher preferences, which the Mario games also faced. Apparently, it doesn't matter that Super Mario World is before the time of the average tumblr user, it's enough that it's Mario. Maybe the same doesn't apply for Final Fantasy VIII, if it's from before your time, well, you probably don't know the characters outside of Kingdom Hearts. Final Fantasy VIII probably only did as well as it did last round, because Grand Theft Auto is the last thing they care for there. That taken into consideration, it's actually somewhat sad Final Fantasy VIII didn't do better, but I guess they vote for games they love more than anti-vote. Final Fantasy VIII joins the large bunch of Final Fantasy games with a very predictable path this contest. Only VII, VI and IX had any real doubt in their paths of the eight of them that were in the contest. That also means four Final Fantasy games had an easy round 1 match and then lost easily in round 2, Final Fantasy VIII being the first of the four. Not that exciting outside of a cool 8-0 round 1 result! Final Fantasy VIII definitely used to be above IX in strength, but I believe that is no longer the case at all. It's not really VIII falling, it's just that IX is being loved a lot by old time fans all of a sudden. I'm honestly not quite sure why. It's a shame that VIII gets to only do about 7% better than Animal Crossing of all things on Super Mario World. While there is a clear and excusable explanation, it looks pretty sad. Super Mario World is an elite game on this site, it would've especially been this year since it's the Year of SNES, but it had just the bracket spot to get screwed by outside forces as much as possible. Things were looking really bad for Super Mario World next round. There might have been a few believers, but I think it was mostly people desperately hoping for a miracle. I was too, Super Mario World is a top 5 to me and that defines my nostalgia. I hated to see it draw the rally force of the year when it could've been a leading force of its dominating console along with Chrono Trigger and A Link to the Past. I didn't believe it stood a chance next round though. That Super Mario World would at least look respectable going out was the best thing to hope for as a fan of it. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6126&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=76) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim vs (8)GoldenEye 007 2015 _source: (1)The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim vs (8)GoldenEye 007 2015 (revid 84367)_ ## Results **Round Two** Tuesday, November 24, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 4 - **Match \#:** 77 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, November 24, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Skyrim - 52.52% 66 for - 24 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Skyrim - 61.64% In round 1, Undertale's rally spillover caused Phoenix Wright to have an early lead over Skyrim before ultimately getting buried. This led people to believe Skyrim was vulnerable in the contest and could potentially lose to Goldeneye -- this on top of some murmuring of a potential Goldeneye \> Skyrim upset pre-contest. What instead happened was Skyrim having its best match of the entire contest. Goldeneye is a damn strong game, and was in a contest where the 90s were wrecking shop and laughing at new games. for Skyrim to go out there and shut it down right from minute 1 was impressive, especially on the heels of how round 1 went. It was a nice, boring 59-41 beating with the percentages not moving at all for the entire match, which is really the best thing Skyrim could have asked for. It solidified itself as a very strong game, and though it may not be on the contender level, it was obviously a very high midcarder. This was basically Skyrim's ceiling heading into this contest, so it met expectations. 59-41 may not sound too impressive, but go check the Oracle. Almost everyone undershot Skyrim. So good Skyrim for going out there, whipping some ass, and completely throwing everyone off the scent for what was about to happen in round 3. You were under better cover than the Dark Brotherhood, my friend. ### Ctes' Analysis Considering what a big deal was made of the upset potential, this match wasn't interesting in the slightest. I guess it should be noted that it may just be listening to the show that made this seem like a big upset potential to me while in reality pretty much no one believed it. The prediction percentage is decent enough. Interestingly, this match was completely unaffected by rally spillover. In fact, it was such a boring match overall. It stayed the pretty much the exact same percentage the whole way through not changing in the slightest. Skyrim appears to be somewhat big on tumblr, so I guess they really like James Bond too. The game doesn't really seem like something that should be big there, so it's probably James Bond love. Spillover is a terrible thing, so despite this match being a bore, not having spillover is great! GoldenEye is a strong game here, there is no denying that, but Skyrim is really legit and proved that for real today. It didn't look too hot last round, but this is pretty great, especially for a recent game. I don't really believe this match should have been in any doubt pre-contest, but after we slowly discovered just how much recent games suck, it's nice to see one of them not doing so. Can you imagine how strong Skyrim could've been if this wasn't NostalgiaFAQs? Look at Fallout 3 in Game of the Decade. It was the \#1 seed overall and reached top 4. I fully believe Skyrim would be even stronger than Fallout 3 if more new users voted in these polls instead of only visiting answers and board pages. Regular poll of the days also suggest that Skyrim would be stronger than Game of the Decade Fallout 3. If we get another Game of the Decade contest in 4-5 years, I think Skyrim would be the overall favorite to win at this point, unless a really appreciated Nintendo game on NX comes out or a rally wins the contest again, and I hope we a contest like that because it was really great last time! Anyway, it really is NostalgiaFAQs, so Skyrim will have to do with the strength it has, but it's quite a bit too! It was very clear Super Mario 64 wouldn't be challenged in the slightest, but Skyrim could still definitely get there. As I said, Skyrim was never gonna lose today, but next round a true challenge would wait in a popular Gamecube game. Metroid Prime looked great in the first two round and seemed to have rally spillover in its favor too. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6127&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=77) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Metroid Prime vs (4)Half-Life 2 2015 _source: (5)Metroid Prime vs (4)Half-Life 2 2015 (revid 84368)_ ## Results **Round Two** Tuesday, November 24, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 4 - **Match \#:** 78 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, November 24, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Metroid Prime - 54.14% 86 for - 4 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Metroid Prime - 32.42% Rematches are very rarely as good as the original, and it's very rare for the loser of the original to turn it around in a rematch. There's a reason it's such a big deal whenever a rematch reverses a result. There's a massive precedent for this stretching across many contests, but my favorite example is Sonic vs Samus in 2002 and 2004. In 2002, Samus came back from down 1500 in the final 3 hours to beat Sonic by 34 votes, and when CJayC legitimized the result it set off one of the biggest firestorms in contest history. In 2004, CJayC had the idea to set up the bracket so that Sonic and Samus would have a big rematch. The result? This: There are other examples of rematches not being very good, like Snake having to beat Knuckles three years in a row, but you get the idea. Things like Crono turning around the Vincent upset a year later or Link getting revenge on Cloud don't happen very often. So when Metroid Prime and Half-Life 2 were set up to have a rematch of their classic from Game of the Decade (http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4182-northeast-division-final-metroid-prime-vs-half-life-2), I knew how it was going to go. Add in Half-Life series fans becoming very disenfranchised by the lack of Half-Life 3 news, and you have a recipe for a virtual parallel to Sonic vs Samus from 2004. Sure enough, the match was 60-40 right at the start and Metroid Prime never looked back. Given how similar the percentages here were to Skyrim vs Goldeneye, it led to the obvious question of Goldeneye vs Half-Life 2. I would assume Goldeneye is the stronger game for rather obvious reasons (NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH IS WHERE THE FUCK IS MY HALF-LIFE 3), but Metroid Prime would have a lot to say about that en route to yet another classic match for one Samus Aran ### Ctes' Analysis I believe this match was set up due to it being a very close match in Game of the Decade. That certainly looks like a match that could've gone either way in a rematch, but I don't see why it would be very interesting to have again. Of all rematches we could have had, this one was a lock. At the very best, the difference in strength would've remained the same, which would result in a Metroid Prime victory undoubtfully. Sure, votals were lower, but there's no reason for all the removed votes to be Metroid fans. The thing is though, a Half-Life drop was to be completely expected. Half-Life is from 2004 and Metroid Prime from 2002, so this has nothing to do with age, but Half-Life 2 has been a dead series for a long time now. There's an internet meme going about the Half-Life 3 we have never seen or heard of. Stuff like that hurts the series. It's been dead for so long, this goes for everything. I'm sure that if the latest Final Fantasy entries had been fantastic, then VII would've held up better too and that's not even the same story, just the same universe. In any case, Half-Life 2 had obviously dropped, it was just a matter of how much. Another reason is that it's by far biggest on PC, which isn't too strong on GameFAQs. Metroid Prime wins with 58% of the vote, but remember there was rally spillover, which clearly favored it. It started out above 60% and fell for most of the match, so on another day it wins by less percentage, but it's still a clear victory, not worthy of repeat. If Allen purposely set up this match as I believe, he should have expected it to be less good, but perhaps he expected a Prime drop too. Other M wasn't too well received and Metroid has stood still since then, but it's only five years ago and the franchise is still relevant through Smash mostly, but when stuff like Nintendo Land comes, you see that Nintendo still remembers the franchise, even though no one actually cares about that game. It is to be expected that a series like Metroid holds up a lot better. Super Metroid and Metroid Prime are the sole representatives of the franchise, but both are very well seeded and did well too, almost pulling off a big round 3 upset each. Prime's run wasn't as great as Super Metroid's I know, but still pretty good. I don't doubt it'll do great in a future contest either. Judged by previous x-stats, Prime looked fantastic in its next match, but the already mentioned reasons explains why we can't go off of that. Not to mention Skyrim's matches have gotten messed with by spillover too. Skyrim still went into the match as the favorite, but Prime supporters certainly had reason to hope for the upset. Rally spillover looked to only help Prime and it could very well be deciding too. Prime failed to get past Fallout 3 in Game of the Decade, so while going with the older game and/or the Nintendo game in a debatable match seems smart, it loss for Prime could certainly happen. But with how Skyrim didn't look as good as Fallout 3 did then along with spillover factor, Prime could very well reach round 4. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6128&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=78) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Super Mario 64 vs (6)Final Fantasy Tactics 2015 _source: (3)Super Mario 64 vs (6)Final Fantasy Tactics 2015 (revid 84369)_ ## Results **Round Two** Tuesday, November 24, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 4 - **Match \#:** 79 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, November 24, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Mario 64 - 65.47% 90 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Mario 64 - 65.94% There aren't many games out there that could blow out Final Fantasy Tactics without me getting upset, but Mario 64 is one of those games. I absolutely adore the Mario series, and if Mario 1 is the most influential video game of all time for saving the industry, then Mario 64 is probably the most influential 3D game of all time for pioneering the transition to 3D video games. I will always love Mario 64 and periodically replay it, and I can totally watch it blow out my favorite game ever and just tip my cap in respect. Oh but Final Fantasy Tactics avoided the doubling after Mario 64 was over 70% at the freeze! Yeah! This actually was somewhat relevant, since it hinted at how Mario 64 would eventually lose and caused some minor Twilight Princess \> Mario 64 hype. It had a rather predictable path until the final 8 of this contest, though that happens when you're far and away the strongest game in your division I suppose. For the record, Final Fantasy Tactics is better than your favorite game. It has without a doubt the deepest and most replayable gameplay of all time. Only the Fire Emblem series comes even remotely close. ### Ctes' Analysis This is one of the matches where the only interesting thing you could follow was whether or not the losing game would avoid the doubling or not. And it's really stretching it to call that interesting, but that's another reason why this format is great. Despite none of the matches today being interesting, at least there are more things to discuss. Well actually, there was something interesting about this match, if you consider rally spillover that. It's not a good thing in general, but it's worth looking at occasionally. Today, it favored Super Mario 64 somewhat significantly. We're not talking that much, but it started out above 70% for a short while before going down for practically the rest of the match. Once again proving that tumblr does care about Mario contrary to what people believed after round 1. At least, it's preferred above Final Fantasy games. I suppose you could take this match to judge next round's match if there was any doubt about it. I don't think there ever was, but for some people taking a big Mario game to beat a big Zelda game feels wrong. Well, these are from different generations, where one generation is generally a lot stronger than the other. Twilight Princess stood no chance in that match. It's not like we haven't sen Super Mario Bros. 3 beat The Legend of Zelda several times either, and they're even on the same console. It's probably the only console where the strongest Mario is stronger than the strongest Zelda. Anyway, not even two additional Mario games could keep SMB3 from winning between the two. A Mario \> Zelda result is not weird in the slightest. Mario 64 was beating Final Fantasy Tactics worse than Zelda was beating Persona 4 today and a match between those two wouldn't even be close. Furthermore, while Persona 4 might have some popularity on tumblr, Zelda was not taking advantage of rally spillover, which it would need to do for the next match to be even the slightest bit interesting. Super Mario 64 looked to get to the top 8 without any trouble, above what the other Mario games seemed to be able to. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6129&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=79) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (7)The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess vs (2)Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4 2015 _source: (7)The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess vs (2)Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4 2015 (revid 84370)_ ## Results **Round Two** Tuesday, November 24, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 4 - **Match \#:** 80 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, November 24, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: Twilight Princess - 65.02% 88 for - 2 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zelda: Twilight Princess - 57.29% Not all doublings are created equal, and though this match's winner was very predictable, Persona 4 was only expected to get 27% on Twilight Princess based on Game of the Decade. It obviously went out and did much better than that, and though it didn't come close to justifying its 2 seed, it at least went out there and didn't thoroughly embarrass itself. The constant overseeding of Persona games does prove its vocal minority fanbase, however, though at least Zelda did us the favor of getting rid of those people. It's going to be funny when Persona 4 becomes only the second 1 seed to lose to a 16 in round 1. (1)Persona 4 vs (16)Portal or (1)Persona 4 vs (16)Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door are a lot more realistic than one might think. In this contest alone, we saw Phoenix Wright get a 16 seed and finish in the top half of the stats. Or let's just go full circle. (1)Persona 4 vs (16)Halo: Combat Evolved. You would laugh until the end of time if Halo won that match. Don't even lie. ### Ctes' Analysis A \#2 seed really isn't supposed in to be almost doubled in round 2, even if it did run into a Zelda game. That said, this isn't a bad showing from a Persona game. It's a small niche franchise, but the fourth game is legit in these things and is the only one that might not be niche. It's also the only one that we should see again of the ones currently released at least. Avoiding the doubling here was probably the fair goal, and it wasn't that close to it. Persona 4 received its great seeding because it has a very dedicated fanbase that will always support it, unlike something like RBY, which is loved by many, but it doesn't have the same dedicated group. It took niche fanbases to get stuff like 999 in this, but Persona 4, already being a decent entry, claimed a \#2 seed with it. This also pretty much confirms that Persona 4 will continue to appear in these contests, and honestly, I fear the third one might very well too. After the previous round there were a few people believing Persona 4 could get close this match. It scored one of the highest percentages of the first round. Now, considering that Persona 4 didn't even come remotely close here, that leaves 999 as a huge contender for the absolute weakest game of the contest. As for Twilight Princess, it's a strong game, but quite unfortunately it ran into Super Mario 64 in round 3, which was an outside contender for the finalist before Undertale rallies happened. At some point during this day, Heroic Mario said he believed that Twilight Princess would beat Super Mario 64, because what game would totally beat Final Fantasy Tactics? Well, I don't really doubt a single bit that Persona 4 would not. That match up seems really easy. Like, think of Dragon Quest VIII vs. Persona 3, but here it's just strong games. Plus, it'll probably be less close. Twilight Princess might be able to do wonder in Wind Waker's spot, but not here. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6130&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=80) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs (8)Suikoden II 2015 _source: (1)The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs (8)Suikoden II 2015 (revid 84371)_ ## Results **Round Two** Wednesday, November 25, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 5 - **Match \#:** 81 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 83.86% 89 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 87.94% A few writeups ago, I said not all doublings are created equal. Well not triplings are created equal either. I feel like this poll is very relevant, even if there was SFF involved: I usually don't link to the Oracle since finding specific matches on that site is a pain in the ass, but for this match the Oracle is definitely worth directly linking you all to: Just about everyone expected Zelda to get well within the 80% range here, and for good reason. Suikoden 2 is complete fodder in these contests, and Ocarina was the overwhelming favorite to win this contest. So when Zelda went out there and only had 75% at the beginning, everyone was completely stunned. Link and Ocarina of Time have been a dominant force in these contests for more than a decade, and I have to equate Link's empire to the New England Patriots. The Patriots are dominant, if not devious as hell, and have won 4 titles. They could easily have more. If not for ridiculous catches by Mario Manningham and David Tyree (as well as a dumb drop by Asante Samuel), the Pats have 6 rings and an undefeated season right now. You could even make the case they should have more rings than even that, if not for some very weird upsets in the AFC playoffs over the years. The point here is that when you beat the Patriots, you barely beat them. It feels like it takes divine intervention to do it. Same for Link or Ocarina of Time in these contests. When you beat the Zelda empire, you barely do it. I'll get into this more when discussing the final, but you get the idea. So when Ocarina of Time went out there and gave us this awful performance, it was an eye-opener. Zelda had shown no weakness whatsoever in this contest until this very match, but then Sukoden 2 went out there and showed us that voters were very much anti-voting Ocarina. This began a very surreal trend of the Zelda series showing it was very "off" this contest, which was odd because until this match it was absolutely dominant. The voters made their allegiances clear. People are beyond sick of Zelda winning all the time. ### Ctes' Analysis This match served as the first hint that Ocarina of Time received some anti-voting after winning last time. I mean, a tripling shouldn't be a bad thing, but in this match you would expect Ocarina of Time to do better. It has showed itself to be ridiculously strong, Suikoden II has not. That said, I don't believe this was as bad as most people made it out to be. Suikoden II sucked in the past, but it has all the reason to have gotten stronger. It's from the childhood of a large chunk of GameFAQs. It's well respected. It's on the Playstation. It's shouldn't be that bad! Last round it won a debated match without breaking a sweat. You can translate that to Monster Hunter 4 being recent and weak, but I don't think it's only that. Only two people in the oracle challenge prediction a percentage for Ocarina of Time lower than this, one of them won this match and the other finished seventh. The rest of us lined up in order of lowest percentage highest and highest percentage lowest. That would make this a disappointing performance and while I'm not saying it isn't, well, it's not that bad either. Ocarina of Time had little to no reason to worry about losing to anything but rallies at this point anyway, with the little recent coming from Chrono Trigger's incredible performances. That said, should Chrono Trigger be a threat, the general idea was that Zelda fans would spawn and vote for it like usual. I believe the disappointing performance from Ocarina of Time today comes from the fact that it's the defending champion now, and of course Link's many victories. Though then the question remains how there appeared to be no anti-voting against Hearthstone. I mean, if there was, Hearthstone is hands down the weakest game ever, but it's pretty clear there wasn't, so why should Hearthstone be an exception to anti-votes? My best guess is rally fear. The core of GameFAQs might want to see Ocarina of Time lose, but not to outside forces. Hearthstone was the biggest contender for a large outside rally pre-contest due to the huge amount of users on its subreddit. People were prepared. In retrospect it's a little stupid. Rallies need momentum, you don't get momentum starting out against Ocarina of Time in round 1, Allen probably knew that too when making the bracket. In any case, that's the best possible explanation. Though we'd still have to watch Ocarina of Time's next matches to be certain that it truly was anti-votes and not just Suikoden II being legit. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6131&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=81) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Okami vs (4)Final Fantasy IX 2015 _source: (5)Okami vs (4)Final Fantasy IX 2015 (revid 84372)_ ## Results **Round Two** Wednesday, November 25, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 5 - **Match \#:** 82 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy IX - 56.48% 82 for - 7 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Final Fantasy IX - 28.54% I'm not actually sure why Final Fantasy 9 was such a huge favorite in this match, but those who said it would win easily were definitely right. Not that it was a massive favorite pre-contest since getting past Kingdom Hearts was no guarantee, but these two games were right next to each other in Game of the Decade's stats. Dunno what I'm missing, but hey, I got no complaints about Final Fantasy 9 winning two matches. I've already gone over why I love that game so much, so peek at the round 1 writeup if you want to see it. For Okami, the trend continues! Nothing has ever broken 60% on Okami or Amaterasu 1v1, and if anyone brings up Rivalry Rumble they're getting kicked right in the nuts. It was somewhat in doubt early on, but Okami was able to take advantage of FF9's horrible day vote to secure getting over 40%. Had this day vote been there in round 1, Kingdom Hearts probably would have won. But it wasn't, so we saw FF9 \> Okami instead. I'm still floored by FF9 winning a day vote in round 1, but you won't get any complaints from my end. It's always a good contest when FF9 makes it to round 3. ### Ctes' Analysis This match was pretty much decided pre-contest, we just didn't know for certain which game would win it, only that it would be the bottom option. That said, it Okami actually amazes me. I suppose it's just the kind of game GameFAQs likes. It's a late Playstation 2 game, though early Wii game, but is not part of any already existing franchise. I'm amazed it has held up as well as it has. It's round 1 victory was so convincing that an outside shot at an upset today was briefly considered by some Board 8'ers, even if no one would've bet on it probably. It didn't come close, but this isn't a bad performance. Final Fantasy IX is truly legit these days having risen like crazy. Five years ago, Kingdom Hearts would've probably taken care of it without struggling too much. Final Fantasy IX would ultimately stand no chance next round, but becomes the last Final Fantasy game to join round 3. Not bad! It could've had a fun run elsewhere in the bracket, but I'm not gonna complain about this one, because it gave us a fantastic round 1 match that I really appreciate we got. There is no longer any doubt that it has exceeded Final Fantasy VIII and it honestly looked very close to Final Fantasy X, a game it got destroyed by last time, even considering SFF. It might still lose the rematch, but with its strength boost and general lack of SFF, and the fact that PS1 games has looked so much better than PS2 games, it probably wouldn't be by nearly as much. I must admit, I really don't understand the boost of strength it has gotten. Why is it suddenly viewed as such a fantastic game? What made the difference? What about it was not appreciated at first, but is now viewed as fantastic? I don't get it. The biggest disappointing for me playing it, was that it had incredible lackluster characters compared to its precedents and I don't think anything else made up for it. In my opinion, nothing makes it stand out much, but Board 8 has named it their favorite game in the whole contest if What Would Board 8 Choose is good enough to represent our tastes, which is probably sadly is. It's not a bad game, but I truly don't understand it's suddenly viewed as fantastic here. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6132&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=82) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (14)Donkey Kong Country 2: Diddy's Kong Quest vs (6)Fire Emblem: Awakening 2015 _source: (14)Donkey Kong Country 2: Diddy's Kong Quest vs (6)Fire Emblem: Awakening 2015 (revid 84373)_ ## Results **Round Two** Wednesday, November 25, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 5 - **Match \#:** 83 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Donkey Kong Country 2 - 47.73% 23 for - 66 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Donkey Kong Country 2 - 21.94% Even though Donkey Kong Country 2 pulled off one of the best upsets of round 1, in our closest wire-to-wire match ever, Fire Emblem was the favorite in round 2. Donkey Kong's failures in debated matches are well-documented, and his failures against Nintendo are also well-documented. Let's not forget that Donkey Kong is the original reason we have something called Same Fanbase Factor in the first place: DKC2 fans were hoping for a win here, but they all knew it was hope at best given DK's contest history. Also worth noting here is Fire Emblem Awakening is a reasonably strong game, and is likely the strongest game in the Fire Emblem series. For that reason, Fire Emblem was the heavy Oracle favorite. When the match finally started and DKC2 closely won the board vote, there was much rejoicing. There are DKC series fans that have hoped for years to see something from the series make it into round 3 of a contest. Unfortunately Awakening was recovering before the freeze, so DKC2's 50 vote board vote lead shrunk to 33. People kind of figured the match was over at this point. As fate would have it, the match actually was over at this point, but not in Fire Emblem's favor. Donkey Kong started increasing his lead with constant updates in the 50-55% range, and kept it moving overnight. Fire Emblem made one small push during the dead zone when it cut 50 votes, but DKC2 easily recovered. When the morning vote hit and easily favored DKC2, the match was dead and over. Donkey Kong Country 2 was finally making round 3 of a contest, and it won two close matches to do it. The final number here may have been 52-48, but the match was never truly in doubt. Given Donkey Kong's propensity to choke in close matches, winning two of them was some weird contest alternate universe. DKC2 making it to round 3 was one of the best stories of this entire contest, especially given how debated this fourpack was pre-contest. It could have potentially been SFFd into the ground by the other three games it shared this fourpack with. Not only did DKC2 resist the old Nintendo SFF bugaboo, but it won. Twice. In close matches. Donkey Kong's reputation won't be totally erased by this contest, but these two wins sure help erase a lot of it. There was even a reasonable debate to be had with the DKC2/SotN match, which would have been unheard of before this contest. Congrats to Donkey Kong for finally pulling one off. ### Ctes' Analysis As someone who had Fire Emblem: Awakening going to round 3, this was a major disappointment. Awakening looked so good to win this match after the first round, but turns out Super Mario Maker is just ridiculously weak even for a Wii U game. I am actually a bit surprised that Xenoblade is apparently the stronger game of it and Awakening. I know it was the favorite to go to round 3, but I expected Awakening to be stronger due to being part of a much more established franchise. Maybe things would've been different if Shulk hadn't gotten Smash exposure and Xenoblade Chronicles X wasn't right around the corner. I get that Xenoblade is generally better received of the people that played both, but I thought more people would know and care for Awakening. That would make it do better on Donkey Kong Country 2 than Xenoblade, which would mean winning this match, as the other one was very close. It did not happen though! This match is also pretty close, but Awakening was never really in it. DKC2 rushed off to get a good lead. Awakening did make some cuts and in the deadzone seemed like it would make a run for this. Even if it did though, it was pretty clear DKC2 would take it back in the morning, but it didn't even have to wait until then. Awakening failed to get DKC2 much below the 400 lead difference at any point. Once the morning came it never really looked back. Once again we got confirmed that it really is the Year of SNES. It seemed clear in 2009 that Donkey Kong Country 2 was weaker than its prequel and its prequel was really darn weak. In this contest it's also pretty clear that Donkey Kong Country 2 is the bottom of the barrel (get it) when it comes to SNES games, but the bottom is still really good this time around. Donkey Kong Country 2 was just at the right place in bracket to advance a couple of rounds and also end up looking really good like the rest of the SNES collection. It was screwed in the next round, but most people expected it to look great going out in round 3 with its performances in the first two rounds. I love Awakening, but seeing some appreciation for the best Donkey Kong game is nice. Diddy Kong really does not choke like his father does! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6133&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=83) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (7)Banjo-Kazooie vs (2)Castlevania: Symphony of the Night 2015 _source: (7)Banjo-Kazooie vs (2)Castlevania: Symphony of the Night 2015 (revid 84374)_ ## Results **Round Two** Wednesday, November 25, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 5 - **Match \#:** 84 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Castlevania: Symphony of the Night - 61.94% 89 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Castlevania: Symphony of the Night - 57.43% There was a reasonable amount of hype pre-contest for a Banjo \> Castlevania upset, but given the round 1 performances the winner of this match was rather obvious. The oracle agreed and gave 100% support to Castlevania, and only 11 gurus picked Banjo here. I'm not sure where the hype came from given contest experts all picking Castlevania, but it was definitely there. At least the trends were funny, as in Banjo-Kazooie being at 44% early before bleeding a bunch of percentage and giving Castlevania a comfortable 61-39 win. Banjo-Kazooie having virtual joke trends is pretty silly to think about, but the trend is definitely there for whatever reason. For Castlevania, it was yet another contest where gamers proved just how respected this game is. Beating Banjo this easily while DKC2 was only sitting there upsetting Xenoblade and Fire Emblem Awakening clearly meant Castlevania was on track to win a third match this contest. Symphony of the Night has made it to round 2 in every contest it's been in, on top of winning a match in the series contest and Alucard having noted contest success. Given how this game really hasn't sold much, it's really cool how renowned it is on the internet for being one of the best games out there. I actually played Symphony of the Night because of the 2004 contest, and you can definitely throw my hat into the "one of the best games ever made" pile. At some point I should make a list of games I've played because of these contests, but it would be rather long and this writeup probably isn't the place. ### Ctes' Analysis For a match that looked like a hot upset chance pre-contest this is a pretty disappointing result. Even if their was a clear favorite here, a game shouldn't go below 40% if it was thought it could pull an upset. That said, I don't think it's particularly bad, because on my head, Banjo-Kazooie was never going to be in this match. It was always clear to me that Symphony of the Night would go through here. I think the prime argument for Banjo-Kazooie advancing was that people expected the it to be the Year of Nintendo 64 and that would give Banjo-Kazooie the needed push to win. Well, this actually fails to begin with, because if that was the era everybody was extremely nostalgic about, then it'd favor the Playstation as well making it a moot point in this match. we only have one Genesis game here, but that game appeared to have gotten stronger as well being from the same era as the SNES. I know people call this NintendoFAQs, but I'm sure it favors everything from the era people were being extraordinarily nostalgic about this time. Playstation has always been a big hit here and it's not just Final Fantasy VII. The difference in strength between these two games was just too great though. Even if it had been the Year of Nintendo 64 and it somehow didn't give the Playstation a boost as well, Symphony of the Night would still win this match. It's impressive that the game has gotten this far from back in 2004 where it was a \#11 seed and barely beat Perfect Dark before getting destroyed. This time it's a \#2 seed and it actually managed to live up to it, albeit in a rather easy division. You'd think that it would be in danger of making it, but it wasn't. Banjo-Kazooie was its biggest threat and it easily disposed of it. Though that wasn't the general consensus after this match. Since a bunch of people had supported Xenoblade going to the division finals when it lost to Donkey Kong Country 2, people had a lot of faith in the latter. Add to this that it's the Year of SNES. I don't think anyone actually expected Donkey Kong Country 2 to win, but people expected it to be a bit closer than this. After all, would a Donkey Kong game on the SNES really be weaker than Banjo-Kazooie this year? ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6134&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=84) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past vs (9)Final Fantasy IV 2015 _source: (1)The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past vs (9)Final Fantasy IV 2015 (revid 84375)_ ## Results **Round Two** Thursday, November 26, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 6 - **Match \#:** 85 - **Match Date:** Thursday, November 26, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: A Link to the Past - 66.60% 88 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zelda: A Link to the Past - 79.95% One day after Ocarina went out and shit the bed against Suikoden 2, Link to the Past went out there and showed us that it wasn't just Ocarina having problems. It's not that Link to the Past had a bad match or anything, since this fell within the 2009 stats rather easily (or at least, as well as the 2009 stats could have looked given that dumb final). It's more that when you get nearly 90% in round 1, one expects a follow-up performance worthy of a champion. Failing to double Final Fantasy 4 is hardly a championship performance. Yes we all knew LTTP was destined to get SFFd into the ground by Ocarina later, but the second half of the Zelda titans should have done better than this. It's not like FF4 being released 283 times boosted the game, since we've seen releases not help other Final Fantasy games much. There was serious Zelda fatigue in this contest, and the five round 2 performances from the games ranging from "just alright" to "clearly getting anti-voted" was not a good sign for later. Our voters are wise to the LAW meme and were clearly voting accordingly. By the way, shout-out to Allen for FF4 being his favorite game ever and resisting the temptation to give it a ridiculously easy draw. Everyone on Board 8 that's ever run contests can attest to how hard that actually is to do, and all we do is run random bullshit board projects. Resisting the urge for a site-wide contest must be hard. ### Ctes' Analysis Here we have the actual Best Game Ever according to SBAllen getting a really predictable path. Considering it is the Year of SNES, it is a shame that it doesn't get to show itself elsewhere in the bracket before biting the dust and running into something completely out of its league. Nearly a doubling here is really insane. A Link to the Past definitely is a contender for the second strongest game behind Ocarina of Time, but it's also the one elite game we were never gonna find out about this contest due to its path leading directly to Ocarina of Time. In the end Undertale made us learn very little though. The few people that actually believed Majora would win the division were looking pretty bad with their picks, that's for sure. Obviously, this match also says practically nothing about the following matches and it sadly makes it difficult to determine where Final Fantasy IV falls in line with the other seven Final Fantasy games in the contest. It's definitely above XIII and probably about Tactics too, since that got a lower percentage on Super Mario 64. I believe Link to the Past would beat game. It's very likely to be below the four games that made it to round 3, but it honestly seems pretty close to Final Fantasy VIII, of course, depending on the strength difference between Link to the Past and Super Mario World too. It'd love to get some reads on this eventually. Every contest some games gotta bite the dust and meet a strong force early, but hopefully next time that wont be Final Fantasy IV again, so we can see it show itself on a SNES favoring site, assuming that remains true ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6135&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=85) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain vs (4)Dark Souls 2015 _source: (5)Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain vs (4)Dark Souls 2015 (revid 84376)_ ## Results **Round Two** Thursday, November 26, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 6 - **Match \#:** 86 - **Match Date:** Thursday, November 26, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Dark Souls - 50.11% 45 for - 43 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Dark Souls - 42.15% I knew this was coming after how bad the Metal Gear Solid series looked in round 1, but it didn't make it any easier to watch. I quite literally have MGS5 on next to me, and my file is at 270 hours as of this writing. I absolutely adore that game and love the gameplay, and I really though pre-contest that people would love the game as much as me and boost the series as a whole. I picked all five games to make it to round 3, and I really think that could have happened if Konami didn't suck. And yes, I know MGS5's faults quite well. I'm not denying them. But the gameplay is really good enough to where those faults shouldn't matter much. Obviously we didn't have a contest where all 5 games made it to round 3, and Dark Souls handed Kojima's final project a swift and quiet exit from this contest right here in round 2. It was never ever close en route to Dark Souls getting an easy 55-45 win, and I just kind of sat here doing the Big Boss salute in honor of our fallen hero. Eventually I'll play Dark Souls, and I'm sure it'll blow my doors off when I do (it is on the KP Approved List™, after all!). It'll make this writeup look pretty hilarious in retrospect in a few years, but for now? We mourn. ### Ctes' Analysis I know a fair share of people on board 8 took this upset pre-contest and were right about it, but it's still quite surprising to me. I guess Dark Souls is really appreciated! I know MGSV is very recent, but Dark Souls is also recent. NostalgiaFAQs has really hurt a lot of games from around the same time as Dark Souls, but it appears rather unaffected. Maybe people appreciate that Dark Souls is a legit challenge, which is kind of rare these days unless you can choose difficulty. Even so, it's Metal Gear Solid. I think had the series not has the drop it clearly had and had new games not sucked now, then MGSV would've had this match. It was never even in the match. I'm honestly not sure what has caused this huge Metal Gear Solid decline considering Snake's popularity in the character contests, but it might have something to do with today's Konami I suppose. I have still yet to play MGSV, but from what I hear, it's good, but not entirely satisfying with more potential. That's probably enough to give Dark Souls the edge it won with today. I don't have a single doubt in my mind that any other Metal Gear Solid game wins this match, even if they'll probably look pretty bad taking it. MGSV was supposed to give the series a boost. Not only did it not do that, things associated with it might even be responsible for the series decline and it sucked in particular itself even if playrate explains some of that. It seems a bit like MGSV is the FFXII of Metal Gear and Dark Souls was just that much stronger than Bloodborne. While it's a shame seeing the series drop of Metal Gear Solid highlighted, I do appreciate a game like Dark Souls doing well. It has never been mentioned in talks about strongest games of current decade, which is fair in the sense that it's not a contender for strongest, but it deserves some recognition going to round 3. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6136&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=86) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Super Metroid vs (6)Super Mario Galaxy 2015 _source: (3)Super Metroid vs (6)Super Mario Galaxy 2015 (revid 84377)_ ## Results **Round Two** Thursday, November 26, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 6 - **Match \#:** 87 - **Match Date:** Thursday, November 26, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Metroid - 54.86% 72 for - 16 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Metroid - 45.83% It was pretty easy to see this coming once Super Metroid damn near broke 80% on Call of Duty 4, but even still, seeing this actually happen was a surreal experience. I'm pulling up this list again because it's extremely important to realize just how badly Samus used to collapse the second Mario or Link showed up to face off against her in a poll. (all it took was a game named "Mario" in the poll, any game, to cause Metroid Prime to get third place!) Every contest veteran knows that list by heart, or at least knows of what would happen to Samus against Mario or Link. 77% of gurus picked Galaxy for a reason. We aren't dumb when it comes to knowing our old contest matches. There are other matches where Samus looked respectable in losses, but they were still losses, like the 2003 loss to Link 1v1. Those of us that have sat here for 10+ years watching Mario and Link just beat Samus at will never thought we would see a day where this ever went the other way. Seeing Super Metroid go out there and just beat the absolute piss out of Mario Galaxy for a 60-40 beatdown... it filled us Metroid fans with determination. We finally got to see Metroid get one over on Mario, which was deemed an impossible ask before this match. People may look back on this and say we should have seen it coming, but no. There was no way to see this coming pre-contest, given the history. This blowout was a really big deal when it happened, and it will continue to be a big deal for years after the fact. This will go down as the match where Mario's magic finally and utterly disappeared. There were hints before this, but Mario always had an excuse. The Vivi loss was a rally. The RBYG \> Mario 3 loss, even though Mario 3 probably lost anyway, was "still just a rally" according to a lot of Mario fans. But this match? No excuse whatsoever. Mario went out there and got his ass beat from pillar to post. Galaxy is no joke, either. It made round 3 of Game of the Decade, and had it gotten a better draw and not run into Twilight Princess it easily could have gone a lot farther. Galaxy is viewed by many as the defining Mario game, in a similar arena to how Mario 1 saved gaming and Mario 64 invented 3D. Galaxy is viewed as the game that gave us motion controls. You guys know my opinion on motion controls, but a lot of people like them and it's become a mainstream thing now. We have Galaxy to thank for that. And none of it mattered, because Super Metroid shut it all down. On a personal level, I absolutely loved this. Fuck motion controls, and fuck Mario Galaxy for helping infect gaming with them. On an objective level, this was a clear and obvious example of old games embarrassing new games in a fair bracket. The 90s was absolutely on the warpath this contest, and when people look back on this contest years from now to show examples of just how hard gamers on this site prefer the 90s, this might be the first match cited. It deserves to be, too. It really cannot be stressed enough just how insane it was to watch Samus lay a 60-40 beatdown on a strong Mario game and end the "Mario clutch" for good. Not only did the 90s thing matter, but gamers were clearly taking the "Best Game Ever" title into account when voting. I'm sorry, but Galaxy doesn't deserve to be anywhere near such a title. ITS' FREAKING MARIO™ died this contest, and Super Metroid killed it. and I for one could not be happier, given the game that was sacrificed at the altar to make it happen. Even better than that was how Super Metroid's contest wasn't necessarily over yet. A few years ago, people would view a Super Metroid vs Majora's Mask match as an easy SFF beatdown in Zelda's favor. But this was 2015, and the whole game changed with this one match. Maybe one day we'll see a Mario vs Samus rematch with Samus getting the ultimate revenge of all. ### Ctes' Analysis This match was quite astonishing. I mean, after the insane blowout Super Metroid delivered in round 1, people were beginning to expect this. A few called it pre-contest too, but not too many. Yet this result still came off really shocking. Seriously, this is huge. Super Metroid has never looked good in these contests at all. Link to the Past kept SFF'ing it badly each time, but it was so much that Super Metroid got severely underestimated this contest. But even after its convincing round 1 victory, there were still a great amount of people believing Super Mario Galaxy could take this match. I guess for some, Call of Duty is just that bad, but the main reason people was holding on was probably the usual Nintendo Hierarchy. You know, the one that says Zelda \> Mario \> Samus \> the rest. It carries over to game contests too and it's almost bulletproof with only Pokemon having shown to be completely out of that system. It broke today though! Super Metroid easily disposed of Super Mario Galaxy and I don't even think it can be blamed on consoles only. It's the Year of SNES indeed, but Super Mario Galaxy is from when the Wii was at its peak and it's not like the consoles get make up for this much. Super Metroid might've gotten stronger than we thought, but it's clear as day that it was pummeled too hard by SFF in previous contests and we just weren't aware of its strength. I try my best to give Super Metroid tons of props here, because initially people were taking this as another chance to laugh at Mario, something he really didn't deserve here, because Super Mario Galaxy did just fine, just like any othe Mario game in the contest that didn't have “Maker” in the title, it's just that Super Metroid was a champ. Fortunately, I do believe that became clearer to everybody when Super Metroid had what was arguably the best match of the contest next round. I'm thinking the hierarchy actually never applied too much, at least, I don't think it ever caused such a thing as rSFF. Sure, Mario definitely made Samus look worse than she was back then, but there's no way Mario wasn't just stronger that year. I have no doubt in my mind Samus loses to Vivi too with Ganondorf in the poll. The hierarchy only works in the way that it describes the series popularity overall. Super Metroid looked incredible this contest, but it's also now confirmed as the strongest Metroid game here and SMB3, SMW and SM64 would all easily beat it. Galaxy is good, but it's nowhere near those. More often than not, you can use the hierarchy when having games from the same system, assuming they are the strongest games of their respective franchises on that system. There are very few exceptions to this, in fact, I think only on the NES do I believe it's completely wrong, where Mario is clearly stronger than Zelda. It's still clear that Super Mario Galaxy is stronger than its sequel, which is somewhat of a shame. It's sequel did pretty much everything better gameplay wise and I think that's a very popular opinion too. Even so, it didn't get the same attention of all. The first one was more beautiful and the idea of taking Mario to space was original at time. It completely took us by storm doing the peak of the Wii. I enjoyed Galaxy 2 more, but I do remember being much more excited with the first one. I really hope Nintendo finds a way to top that excitement with future installments, but it's gonna be tough. The Wii was on decline come Galaxy 2, which clearly doesn't help either. The base station wasn't as cool looking, which is your first real impression of visuals, not to mention the absence of Rosalina or a character that could leave the audience with a similar reaction. It's great that Super Mario Galaxy 2 got to show itself as worthy, despite people seeing it as a flaw, but there probably isn't need for both of them next time. Looking back on this match, it makes so much sense, yet we all went crazy when the poll went up. I guess most of us just went with Galaxy without thinking too much about it. Even if Super Metroid was always strong and just didn't have a fair chance, it still contributed greatly to making the SNES look god-like this contest during the first rounds in particular. Super Metroid looked great to day and we were greatful of what it brought to the contest, but the best had yet to come! You gotta give it to Metroid for delivering some real good round 3 matches this contest. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6137&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=87) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (10)Final Fantasy XII vs (2)The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 2015 _source: (10)Final Fantasy XII vs (2)The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 2015 (revid 84378)_ ## Results **Round Two** Thursday, November 26, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 6 - **Match \#:** 88 - **Match Date:** Thursday, November 26, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: Majora's Mask - 67.07% 87 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zelda: Majora's Mask - 73.19% Majora's Mask was the fifth Zelda game to make an appearance in round 2, and oddly enough it was the only one of the five that looked really good in its win. Twilight Princess, Wind Waker, and Link to the Past looked decent but nothing like world-beaters, and Ocarina of Time looked horrendous. But Majora's Mask? That game was busy validating Game of the Decade by getting 69% on Final Fantasy 12, and frankly FF12 was lucky to even break 30% in this poll. FF12 is a good game, don't get me wrong, and I cannot wait for the HD remake, but let's not pretend the game has a lot of strength here. It got released too late in the PS2's life cycle and the director had a nervous breakdown mid-production because Square sucks now. Now I don't know when it happened and I don't know how, but somewhere along the line Majora's Mask became the massive hipster favorite in the Zelda series. I thoroughly approve of this. Because for all the faults Majora's Mask had, it tells the best story in the entire Zelda series by a mile. It's not even close. People theorizing that Link is dead in the game tells you all you need to know. Freaking Link. The invincible hero. That doesn't happen if your storytelling is bad, and more Zelda games need to go this route and get away from the childish bullshit. Kudos to Twilight Princess for trying, even if the game wasn't all that good. Majora's Mask being the only worldslayer Zelda title in round 2 made the upcoming round 3 match all the more hilarious. "Out of left field" does not even begin to describe it. ### Ctes' Analysis If there was somehow any doubt that Final Fantasy XII is the weakest Final Fantasy game in the bracket hopefully it disappeared now. I don't think anyone actually doubted it, but I really don't get why Final Fantasy XII got to be in the bracket once again. When SBAllen said the bracket had eight Final Fantasy games, I guessed all of them correctly except for XII. Instead, I predicted Final Fantasy XIII. It's not exactly that well received either, but it's new and it has yet to make the field, so I thought that would make more sense. Of course, it became clear it wasn't that when the sum of the titles was revealed to be Final Fantasy 56Tactics. I mean, Final Fantasy XII is not a great offender to the bracket, because it is capable of getting to round 2, it did, and it allowed us to laugh at the casuals a bit, though unfortunately also builds to the incorrect “Final Fantasy always wins” phase, but it's not that great a game and that's a popular opinion! We probably wont ever see Final Fantasy XIII in a contest if we didn't know. Maybe if we had one a couple of years ago. Majora's Mask looks pretty great here. It lines up very nicely with the Game of the Decade x-stats, which might seem boring, but Majora's Mask actually had a lot to prove after that contest. Many people expected it to have overperformed that contest, it made sense too! Being an Ocarina of Time proxy, not to mention likely getting votes from the darn Brawl haters made sense, and honestly I do think that happened, so maybe Majora's Mask boosted a little bit, or maybe Valkyria Chronicles and Final Fantasy XII fell. Maybe it's a bit of both. In any case, Majora's Mask didn't look like it would be close to Link to the Past, which is fair, because that was never gonna happen. So depsite having a very predictable path, it's nice that it proved itself worthy of its title last time. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6138&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=88) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Grand Theft Auto V vs (9)Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars 2015 _source: (1)Grand Theft Auto V vs (9)Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars 2015 (revid 84379)_ ## Results **Round Two** Friday, November 27, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 7 - **Match \#:** 89 - **Match Date:** Friday, November 27, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Mario RPG - 58.75% 83 for - 7 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Mario RPG - 22.37% This was a rather predictable match for us on Board 8, since pretty much everyone here knew that the winner of Oblivion vs Mario RPG would roll both through this match and the one after, and not face a situation where it could lose until seeing Resident Evil 4. It was also supposed to be our first true 8/9 \> 1 upset, but Mario 3 had to go and ruin that. I always tend to bring up when the casuals embarrass us, but it's important to remember when we embarrass the casuals. 319 people picked GTA5 to win the entire contest -- 5th most!! -- yet all of us knew it was losing in round 2. That's some serious CasualFAQs going on, and was one of those situations that always allows Board 8 contest experts to finish in the 95th percentile or higher. The only entertaining thing about this match, outside of the idiotic "this is why GameFAQs gets fun of" topics (as if we're the only site that hates Grand Theft Auto), was the hilarious percentage bleed by Mario RPG overnight due to not being released in Europe. It would become hilarious and predictable in all its matches, and never really got old. Mario RPG being at 64% at the freeze and dropping all the way to 56% overnight was really something else. Not that it meant the match was in any doubt, but still. Funny to watch. Also funny is the unbelievable Grand Theft Auto whining every time something from that series loses in a contest, but it reached a fever pitch with the next match. I know it technically happened at the same time as this match, but San Andreas losing was a much funnier upset than this one. ### Ctes' Analysis Here comes another point where we really get to make fun of casuals, our admin included, if we want to. I don't think a single board 8'er that actually cares about contests got this match wrong, unless they had Oblivion winning it. This eight-pack was casual murder. This one isn't even the biggest, though board 8 itself was split on San Andreas vs. Chrono Cross, ujlike this match where they were split on Super Mario RPG / Oblivion. When a 1# seed loss was so obvious, you know something is wrong. Grand Theft Auto V didn't become the first \#1 seed to lose, but only because of being a late division and more so due to RBY's ridiculous underseeding. This is the fourth best selling game of all time people! Getting destroying by an old RPG that didn't even release in Europe. You can credit Year of SNES to this victory if you want, but GTAV would have lost this match regardless, so when it comes to Super Mario RPG's contributions to Year of SNES, we'll save them for another round. This is almost solely the Grand Theft Auto franchise having fallen a lot. It used to be worth something in these contests and now it's not even in the slightest. It took a \#16 seeded Dreamcast exclusive to allow GTAV to even match. Had that \#16 seed been given to the original Super Mario Bros or The Legend of Zelda, we would have witnessed another Halo/Starcraft case, except that GTAV would've been destroyed. Had the game come out before Grand Theft Auto became too mainstream for GameFAQs tastes, it could've had a chance in this match with the fantastic reception it has gotten, but it was bound to lose this one from before this contest began. The final percentage of this match doesn't look bad. GTAV has Europe to thank for that. Super Mario RPG started well above 60% with the board vote, but would've had a chance to stay at 60% if it hadn't been for its terrible vote in Europe where it has only been officially released on Virtual Console. Today was a sad day for fans of the Grand Theft Auto series. Maybe the series can redeem itself a little bit when the hate eventually dies, but its strength doing its peak on this site is probably something it'll never get back to and it wasn't even particularly noteworthy to begin with! Even though this match happened only because of GameFAQs newfound Grand Theft Auto hate, it unfortunately served as contribution to the Nintendo and/or Square always wins points outsiders like to come with. More on that in later rounds. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6139&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=89) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas vs (13)Chrono Cross 2015 _source: (5)Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas vs (13)Chrono Cross 2015 (revid 84380)_ ## Results **Round Two** Friday, November 27, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 7 - **Match \#:** 90 - **Match Date:** Friday, November 27, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Chrono Cross - 55.07% 82 for - 8 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Chrono Cross - 13.47% Other than Undertale, Chrono Cross winning in round 2 was the lowest prediction percentage. San Andreas and World of Warcraft are casualbait bracket predictions, and almost all of the casuals would have picked one of those two games to win the fourpack. On Board 8, half of the gurus picked Chrono Cross. This is impressive for such a huge upset to be sure, even half of even us thought GTA or WoW would win the fourpack. Needless to say, Chrono Cross not only winning this, but winning it so easily was a huge surprise. It actually had 60% of the vote early, then GTA had to bleed percentage all match to make this look even remotely respectable. Not that losing this in any way actually could be respectable, but still. This match and this day in general gave the GTA series a well-deserved "get the hell out of my contest" beating, and it was met with some hilarious whining from the casuals. This match and GTA5 losing on the same day to boot the entire series from the contest was just classic for a GTA hater like myself. GTA losing in round 2 and enjoying the casual whining is becoming a contest tradition! I've been waiting until this very writeup to bust out this list, and it's mighty hilarious. The casuals should really know to expect GTA choke jobs in these contests by now, because ever since Tommy Vercetti's run in 2003 GTA has done nothing, and often gets bit by a hilarious upset bug very early in contests. Frankly even Vercetti in 2003 got lucky to beat Donkey Kong in round 2, but I'll give the guy some credit there since he was a hyped newcomer. Regardless, here is the list of hilarious GTA upsets and close matches in contests. I'm including close wins, because even those are funny to look at. Look at how ridiculous some of these matches are, then pull a Laughing Octopus and LAUGH WITH ME. It's all so fucking hysterical. (confirmed cheating on Kefka's side in this match) There are some hilarious blowouts too, like Niko Bellic getting last place in a poll with a horse in it. There is seriously no reason to ever have faith in Grand Theft Auto or its characters ever again unless they are against pure fodder trash. Seriously, look at that list. It's ridiculous, especially in 2009 when four GTA games made the bracket because of GTA4 hype (3, 4, Vice City, San Andreas) and none of them made it to round 3. Not that that's the only example, like GTA5 hype getting three games into this contest and all of them losing early, but good lord that series sucks. Both in the games being garbage and in contests. Just pure trash in every way, and I absolutely love whenever that series loses. ### Ctes' Analysis Now this match is the true slap in the face to casuals! As well as the true slap in the face to the Grand Theft Auto franchise. GTAV might've been the \#1 seed losing in round 2, but San Andreas is the main game of the franchise on this site and its losing to Chrono Cross of all things. The prediction percentage says it all! Chrono Cross' run in this contest is hillarious. It's such a disliked game in general. Being a spiritual successor to the fantastic Chrono Trigger, it disappointed big time. It's a fine game in itself, but it completely fails to live to anything Chrono Trigger did, particularly the cast. It's just the kind of game to get anti-voted, but GameFAQs allowed it to beat two huge mainstream games in World of Warcraft and San Andreas. To think that GameFAQs is so much against the kind of mainstream games that are played intensely by people that play nothing else and call themselves big gamers. It's so much against them that it allowed Chrono Cross to beat them with ease! Grand Theft Auto has fallen so badly that it's ridiculous. This is Golden Sun / San Andreas all over again, but even worse for the latter. Who know, some casuals might begin to catch on soon, though that's highly unlikely given World of Warcraft's prediction percentages each contest. It's actually a shame. Grand Theft Auto is a legit good series. It provides entertainment for all kinds of gamers. You can spend hours doing nothing in the game, but just messing around, with or without cheat codes, or you can take on missions and get a challenge. It's great! Unfortunately, it became a victim of its own popularity. Someone might argue that Chrono Trigger's insane boost caused Chrono Cross to boost as well, but that's highly unlikely. The most hardcore Chrono Trigger fans tend to be the ones bashing this game the most for not living up to their expectations from the spiritual predecessor. Chrono Cross might've boosted a little bit from the hate decreasing slowly, but it's mainly just the San Andreas anti-votes and the same for World of Warcraft last round. If you compare these performances to earlier contests, then this Chrono Cross would be projected to win next match, which everybody knew was never going to happen. Be it Year of SNES or not, Super Mario RPG is just the kind of game Chrono Cross doesn't stand a chance against. It was destined to lose next round, but Chrono Cross gained some respect among Board 8 this contest as the game that destroyed casuals the most. It had just the right bracket placement to do well. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6140&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=90) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt vs (6)Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty 2015 _source: (3)The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt vs (6)Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty 2015 (revid 84381)_ ## Results **Round Two** Friday, November 27, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 7 - **Match \#:** 91 - **Match Date:** Friday, November 27, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Metal Gear Solid 2 - 53.61% 69 for - 21 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Metal Gear Solid 2 - 27.52% This was one of the weirdest matches of the entire contest, specifically because it wasn't a weird match at all. Before getting into the actual match itself, look at how these two games performed in round 1. Witcher 3 got nearly 75% in its match, while MGS2 struggled with Resident Evil. By that alone, I'm very surprised Witcher 3 wasn't able to win this poll through its own natural strength. The evidence that it could have done so was certainly there, so to see MGS2 win this comfortably was certainly there. The poll was 60-40 early, then MGS2 bled percentage all match until it won 54-46. Under normal circumstances, that would be a respectable and close match, if not a bit surprising given the round 1 performances. But by this match having normal circumstances, it wasn't really normal at all. Witcher 3's own developers have rallied on the internet to win something like 200+ Game of the Year awards. Some of thosse it won normally, but a lot were direct rallies where the developers asked the fans to vote in online polls all over the place. The fans responded in kind, and now Witcher 3 is on track to become this weird cult classic video game. I'm sure even the most staunch anti-rally guy could at least see why this is a good thing. If you pour your heart into making a video game, you want to get recognition for it. Witcher 3 clearly had a passionate development team and passionate fans, and they took advantage of that to get some buzz on the internet. Good for them! So why in the absolute holy hell did they not ask their fans to vote in this poll? MGS2 only won this poll by 3323 votes, and in the middle of the afternoon this match was still very much in doubt. The Metal Gear Solid series looked like trash all contest long and was just begging to have people rally against it. It isn't like people didn't try, either. There were Witcher 3 fans all over the usual sites, the fan sites, the developer's twitter, and everything else you could think of during this match to try getting a rally going. And while people are jaded about GameFAQs, this is still one of the biggest video game sites out there; a developer rally to get Witcher 3 a run in this contest would have made perfect sense. Yet while the fans were pounding the social media alarm, the developers did not care. It frankly blew my mind, because Witcher 3's rally potential pre-contest was obvious. Yet none of it would ever happen, and MGS2 would back its way into a 54-46 win. A match like this really puts into perspective just how hard it is to get a successful rally going, and really makes one appreciate the ones that do work. Those fans were everywhere during this match, for a game that has a real buzz online, and it didn't matter. It goes to show you that successful rallies are largely about luck, because Witcher 3 might have won this contest had it bothered showing up for a match that it was just begging to win. Oh and that's no disrespect meant for MGS2 and no complaining by me over it winning this, by the way. It's in my top 10. I was just very, very pleasantly surprised. Even now in looking back at this match, I cannot believe that it actually won this match. "Obviously, the Patriots blackmailed CD Projekt Red into not rallying for The Witcher 3." -swirldude ### Ctes' Analysis This match was not interesting to look at, other than laughing more at Metal Gear Solid I guess, but it comes down as one of the most hypothetically interesting of the contest, but let's look at what actually happened first. Some people were discussing the upset here that would be The Witcher 3 winning. It would've been a cool upset too! Sons of Liberty is not exactly the most well-received Metal Gear Solid and The Witcher 3 has been incredible well-received. It took Game of the Year on GameFAQs as well. I haven't played it personally, but it's on the to do list! I do love Metal Gear Solid 2 as well, but I know not everyone appreciates it. Raiden is apparently considered a bad character too. When you look at things like this, The Witcher 3 should win this match, it really should. But it didn't, and it was never going to either. This is GameFAQs! We are very nostalgia and/or haven't played more recent games. It's also that Metal Gear Solid 2 is part of a great well-established series, and even though said series disappointed this contest, it's still a big one. The Witcher 3 is as well, but the first two were not nearly as big as the third one has become. The Witcher 3 doesn't get its popularity from its series' name. I'm not saying Metal Gear Solid 2 completely does, but it certainly helps it a lot. As I just mentioned, The Witcher 3 took Game of the Year here, that really says everything! Without even looking anything up, I can assure you that Metal Gear Solid 2 would lose to at least three other 2001 games, which are Melee, Final Fantasy X and GSC. Now, 2001 was a really good year, but it still says a lot! 2015 was too and recent games in general are great as well. The prediction percentage reveals The Witcher 3 as the overall favorite and we would've guessed so either way, but Metal Gear Solid 2 was the clear board 8 favorite. We know our nostalgic site. Now, what makes this match so hypothetically interesting? GameFAQs dodged a major bullet on this one. Undertale would end up winning this contest by gained momentum over the course of the rounds and within every single round in itself as well. In this match, we dodged another major bracket destruction by rallies in The Witcher 3. The fanbase and even official sites are ridiculously easy to rally for this game. They have done it before and it would take them nothing to overtake this contest completely either. In round 1, there was no reason to contact them whatsoever because The Witcher 3 was facing The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth of all things, which it obviously destroyed. Well, they were contacted this round, but nothing happened, which is weird. I mean, usually, most rally attempt fails and that's just how it is, but this one should've been bulletproof. The answer is in the timing. The day of this match was 11/27. That's Black Friday for you! Not even gamers are home that day. More importantly, the sites were contacted on Thanksgiving, where they weren't working / paying attention. They actually responded to someone explaining that they would've participated in this, but didn't since they weren't contacted sooner than Thanksgiving when the match was on Black Friday. We lucked out due to the date of the match. The rally potential in the Witcher 3 was absolutely the biggest bullet we had to dodge and we did. If they had rallied, The Witcher 3 would've dominated the contest entirely. Undertale won, but at least it kept the board active doing its matches with how its trends were. The Witcher 3 would've destroyed competition in boring matches similar to how Draven did it and this time, there would be no Hero of Time to save everybody with only DDOS attacks to fear. People would probably still say “save us Ocarina of Time” or “save us Chrono Trigger”, even though it would quickly become “save us RBY”, “save us Melee” or even “save us Undertale”. It would likely not happen though. They'd be too many, and Undertale wouldn't be able to jump the same anti-gamefaqs bandwagon if The Witcher 3 was the treat. But none of it ever happened, because of thanksgiving. Most people wont even remember The Witcher 3 in this contest. At most, it was just another entrant to embarrass Metal Gear Solid, but there were so many of those that it went unnoticed here, but The Witcher 3 was the game to fear the most when it came to outside forces, but Minecraft, Heartstone, Destiny and even Undertale were considered more, another reason why people doesn't remember. Who knows what'll happen if the Witcher 3 comes back to the field. Maybe if its past its prime, it wont matter, but if the contest comes somewhat soon, well, you never know! ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6141&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=91) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (7)Fallout: New Vegas vs (2)Resident Evil 4 2015 _source: (7)Fallout: New Vegas vs (2)Resident Evil 4 2015 (revid 84382)_ ## Results **Round Two** Friday, November 27, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 7 - **Match \#:** 92 - **Match Date:** Friday, November 27, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Resident Evil 4 - 60.30% 90 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Resident Evil 4 - 52.10% Of the four matches that took place during this contest day, this was the only match that was remotely normal. GTA5/SMRPG, San Andreas/Chrono Cross, and Witcher 3/MGS2 were all weird for various reasons, but RE4 was always going to beat New Vegas with ease. I suppose one could call it disappointing that RE4 didn't break 60% in this match (and a lot of Oracle players would agree!), but no one really thought this match was some warning sign for the future. Fallout 4 hype was still in effect, after all. Turns out it actually was a warning sign, though that would not become clear until next round. This match booted the Fallout series from the contest rather early, though the obvious Undertale circumstance (not to mention Fallout fans refusing to counter-rally) was to blame for that more than Resident Evil 4 was. In thinking about Fallout getting a relatively early exit from the contest as a series, it was hardly the only example. Since this PCA is loaded with lists, here's my list of relatively surprising early series exits from this contest, or at least series where not making round 3 could be considered disappointing to various people: Mega Man (I'm including MMX and the vanilla Mega Man series not making the contest here, just a crime) Portal Halo Call of Duty (irrelevant on GameFAQs, but to gaming at large it losing early matters) Fallout Half-Life Mario Kart (only because Super Mario Kart absolutely should have made it in) Warcraft Grand Theft Auto BioShock ### Ctes' Analysis I think this was the first warning sign that Resident Evil 4 had fallen in strength, but I'm not sure anybody truly caught on yet. For reference, by far the most people had Resident Evil 4 above this and well over 60%. It failed to live up to what we expected of it here, but its first round victory against Paper Mario seemed quite convincing! Turns out that Fallout: New Vegas and Paper Mario are near equals. Anyway, for once, board 8 wasn't at full force blaming the game that got lower than expected and calling out upsets the following rounds, which is kind of hilarious because for once it'd actually be correct. It's probably because the Paper Mario result was expected. The result today was credited to Fallout 4 hype. The game just came out, the community was very active, it made sense that there'd be at least a temporary boost to the series. Especially if Fallout fans were annoyed that Fallout 3 drew Undertale in round 2. After today's match, Fallout was completely out of the contest despite having a new game coming out right around when the contest began. New Vegas was never gonna win this match, but it didn't seem weird that it would be a bit stronger than we thought. In reality, it was a warning sign that Super Mario RPG would take advantage of bandwagon and a weakened Resident Evil 4 to win the division, but nobody took note of it. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6142&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=92) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Metal Gear Solid vs (8)EarthBound 2015 _source: (1)Metal Gear Solid vs (8)EarthBound 2015 (revid 84383)_ ## Results **Round Two** Saturday, November 28, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 8 - **Match \#:** 93 - **Match Date:** Saturday, November 28, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Metal Gear Solid - 63.92% 87 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Metal Gear Solid - 58.70% A lot of people will point to MGS3/BioShock as the true example of the MGS series being completely screwed in this contest, but that match had a weird triple rally going on where all three rallies were against MGS3. But we'll get to that insanity in a bit. For me, the true sign MGS was completely and utterly fucked was this match right here. I know EarthBound showed it was legit against Borderlands 2 and that it has some newfound strength, but coming close to breaking 40% on Metal Gear Solid was just ridiculous. Remember, before this contest EarthBound had never won a match. Now we were watching it beat Borderlands 2 and get 40% on Metal Gear Solid. This wasn't an old \> new thing, either, as EarthBound is only 4 years older than Metal Gear Solid. I guess you could make the case for an insane SNES boost, but even still. 40% on Metal Gear Solid, which is the one game from this series that should be looking good even when the other games all suck it up. When the flagship game is out there performing like trash, you know you're done. It's really bad when some games in the series looked better in losses than others did in wins. This was just awful, and frankly the series needed a lucky draw to have a game make it into the final 8. It seems relevant that virtually everyone in the Oracle overshot this match, and that MGS1 was a top 10 game in 2009. Six years later and we had... whatever this was. ### Ctes' Analysis Today, I don't think even the original Metal Gear Solid avoided disappointing us. That franchise had looked relatively terrible pretty every single match of the contest so far, all five of them, with the possible exception of Metal Gear Solid, but this doesn't look good either. Earthbound should not be allowed to run for breaking 40% today. It was actually a lot worse until Earthbound's terrible Europe vote kicked in. Albeit in the weakest quarter of the bracket, Metal Gear Solid was the favorite to reach the semi-finals. Then you just don't go and let Earthbound break get this close to breaking 40%. Earthbound is a very great game, but the series has been dead for so many year outside of Japan where its less years, but still dead as well, not counting Smash Bros appearances, which probably do a lot. Earthbound has looked pretty bad previously, hence why Metal Gear Solid gets to look bad today. That said I do think it has gotten stronger. This Earthbound doesn't look like it'd lose badly to Doom. It has always had a high cult status and now with little to no younger users voting, a larger part of the voters has played it and almost all probably know it. In Metal Gear Solid's defense, this year has had a couple of SNES games making their opponents look bad, where the weaker SNES games might not win, but still get to embarrass something going on. We saw that with Mega Man X against Final Fantasy X and it's the same thing happening today really. Another thing is that Earthbound is probably the worst kind of opponent for Metal Gear Solid, so it's really convenient that it's not a stronger one. The two games are really about as different as it gets. So now Metal Gear Solid doesn't “only” have anti-Konami stuff against it (which is stupid given what Konami was at its time) as well as of course Earthbound's fanbase. If you're not into the kind of game Metal Gear Solid is, then there's a completely different game to vote for. If the other one was closer in genre, perhaps just being a shooter, the people that doesn't know either might just very well side with the first option, bracket vote, recognizable franchise name or whatever, but Earthbound is entirely different. It probably helps a little bit at least. Metal Gear Solid didn't get to look too good today, but it was still considered the favorite going against Shadow of the Colossus. Earthbound beating Red Dead Redemption wouldn't be weird considering what kinds of games they are, their times and platforms, as well as their genre and it wouldn't even need to be my much that Earthbound would have to win for Metal Gear Solid to still be safe. At this point it was looking like it might just save itself from exiting earlier than expected by good bracket placement. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6143&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=93) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (5)Shadow of the Colossus vs (4)Red Dead Redemption 2015 _source: (5)Shadow of the Colossus vs (4)Red Dead Redemption 2015 (revid 84384)_ ## Results **Round Two** Saturday, November 28, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 8 - **Match \#:** 94 - **Match Date:** Saturday, November 28, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Shadow of the Colossus - 61.08% 87 for - 2 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Shadow of the Colossus - 39.93% Of the four simultaneous Division 8 matches going on today, only one was normal. Shadow of the Colossus was never going to do anything other than beat Red Dead Redemption with ease, though one could argue RDR had some surprising contest strength. It pasted Bayonetta 2 before breaking 40% on Shadow of the Colossus, and not many games could pull of the latter. The eerie percentage similarity between this match and MGS/EarthBound got the hype train rolling for a potential Shadow of the Colossus \> Metal Gear Solid upset, especially considering what SotC pulled off against the MGS series in Game of the Decade. A lot of old wounds started opening up for us MGS series fans once round 2 happened, and even after seeing EarthBound's newfound strength this contest, it was so hard imagining it being so ahead of RDR that MGS/SotC wouldn't be a nail-biter. We had years of proof that EarthBound was garbage in these things. Having to rely on it being ahead of RDR in the stats was pretty surreal. I know it would end up not mattering, but you guys have no idea how bad that SotC run was in Game of the Decade for me. Then there was potential to have to watch it run over MGS again. I was petrified of that match and was beyond worried the game would get a bandwagon going and do something ridiculous like make it to the semifinals. It's my most hated game ever, and every contest it finds some new way to piss me off somehow. ### Ctes' Analysis This match should honestly never have been in the slightest doubt, but I can see why it would be to outsiders. Red Dead Redemption has been pretty successful, big recent name. Shadow of the Colossus didn't quite get that kind of status, but GameFAQs really likes it! No one in their right mind that was here during Game of the Decade would pick against Shadow of the Colossus today. Even if it did get some kind of bandwagon going then, it still proved itself to be legit. Red Dead Redemption is like a western kind of Grand Theft Auto, explaining both lack of success here and why casuals might pick it today. Of course, it doesn't have anti-votes Grand Theft Auto has being less big, but being less in itself is likely to mean it's weaker. Red Dead Redemption is pretty decent in quality, crazy game, there is actually a trophy for tying a random woman up, placing her on trails and watching as a train runs her over, which there is no reason for you to do other than of course getting the trophy. Knowing GameFAQs, you should know that Red Dead Redemption is not the kind of game to have much strength on this site, though I do understand not thinking Shadow of the Colossus would be either. Shadow of the Colossus wouldn't go into round 3 as the favorite, but it should be mentioned that it would've probably finished slightly above 60% had it not been for Red Dead Redemption benefiting slightly from the Starcraft and Mass Effect 2 rallies. It didn't appear to make a big difference in this match though, and it doesn't change anything regarding Metal Gear Solid being the favorite in round 3. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6144&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=94) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater vs (6)BioShock 2015 _source: (3)Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater vs (6)BioShock 2015 (revid 84385)_ ## Results **Round Two** Saturday, November 28, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 8 - **Match \#:** 95 - **Match Date:** Saturday, November 28, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Metal Gear Solid 3 - 59.54% 83 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Metal Gear Solid 3 - 49.22% This match happening at the same time as Starcraft/Mass Effect 2 created one of the coolest situations in this entire contest, which was two Western RPG games rallying their ass off at the same time. Add that to the Starcraft rally, and you just had an overall really cool day going on. It's important to remember that the west rarely gets a rub on GameFAQs; this site is practically a 90s Japanese fan site at this point. So to see the west completely run our poll for a day... it filled the west with determination. For one day. It wouldn't last, and had this rallying begun earlier in the contest we might have seen some very different results. The funny thing here is all three rallies diametrically opposed Metal Gear Solid 3, which was just hilarious to watch, made it look really bad in winning this match, and made the final raw x-stats look totally ridiculous. This match was really the tale of two different matches, because early on this looked like it would be standard fare for round 2 -- just a predictable win in the 60-40 range. MGS3 was over 60% early, and though it bled some percentage overnight, it was nothing major and it was easily able to build up a lead even as Starcraft was rallying. Even through the dead zone and early morning, MGS3 only really bled some percentage. It's when Mass Effect 2's rally kicked off that things got really weird in this match. Mass Effect 2 got going at around 10 am, which is precisely the moment MGS3 vs BioShock proceeded to stay deadlocked for 14 hours. Not long after Mass Effect 2 started rallying, BioShock started rallying. It turned all of these polls into a giant rallyfest, which was cool to watch even though most of it was centered around Starcraft vs Mass Effect 2. With MGS3 and BioShock specifically, the big western push was able to get BioShock an even vote intake with MGS3 for 14 hours. But to overcome an 1800 vote lead, it would need more than just going 50-50. There was one scare for MGS3 around ASV time when BioShock cut off 300 votes over a 2 hour span, but MGS3 was able to stabilize before ultimately surviving and winning the match. Still, even though BioShock didn't win, it was impressive to see it going 50-50 with a game that's much stronger naturally. This was probably a 55-45 match naturally, and BioShock got it down to 52-48 before the match ended. With a better rally, it could have actually won. For MGS3, it was the latest example in a long line of embarrassing results for the Metal Gear Solid series -- two of which happened on the same day! -- and at this point all three games were just waiting to lose. Would anyone have been surprised at this point had Mass Effect 2 beaten MGS3? ### Ctes' Analysis This match is crazy, in some sense hilarious, but as a big fan of Metal Gear Solid 3 mostly sad and worrying. BioShock got a hell lot more than it was supposed to here. It's frighteningly close. Let me first explain the oracle predictions. A single user, nkansas, had Metal Gear Solid 3 winning by less than this, which 52.00% (then Rose had BioShock winning by 61.42% lmao), but everybody else guessed that Metal Gear Solid 3 would win by more. The average prediction probably falls close to 60% and it got 52%. It's an absolute embarrassment. The Metal Gear Solid series had been embarrassed pretty much each time they were on the field, with MGSV even losing a match it was supposed to win, but this one tops it all off. Now, one of the most notable matches of the contests, Starcraft vs. Mass Effect 2, was going on simultaneously and that one was a minor rally war. The thing is, both rallies appeared to boost BioShock. Didn't matter which one of them had a rally going, it was BioShock that benefit from it. The other matches might've been slightly affected, but definitely not very much. Considering the size of the rallies today, it's incredible BioShock was boosted this much, but I guess it has fantastic overlap with both games. BioShock started at around 43% and then boosted crazily for a while. It ot 4-5% coming from the rallies. That's really great for spillover not coming from like Undertale or maybe Melee. Had these two games been just slightly closer, heck, had it been any other Metal Gear Solid game than Snake Eater except possible the original, BioShock would win it, though it might just very well regardless with how the Metal Gear Solid series already disappointed before rally spillover kicked in. Ultimately, the other match settled and BioShock would not make the comeback. Had the rallies not stopped, it would've been a different story and BioShock could've written history. It also would've been hillarious to see BioShock take enough advantage of spillover to actually win a match when no games present on Undertale matches seemed to do so. That said, spillover is somewhat lame. Like, I'm against strong outsides rallies in general, but games just getting incredibly lucky by sharing a poll with a similar game that gets rallies should be something no one wants. So despite completely unexpected upsets being fun, I'm glad we avoided it today. Also, because Metal Gear Solid 3 is a top 10 game for me of course. If you remove spillover percentage, then Metal Gear Solid 3 has a safe win today, but that still doesn't excuse its performance today. People were expected disappointments from the series at this point and it still somewhat would've done worse than the average oracle expectation. Metal Gear Solid 3 should not be considered the favorite going into the next match honestly. Mass Effect 2 managed to look really good today and Metal Gear Solid 3 definitely didn't. Considering Mass Effect 2's shown rally capabilities, that upset actually seemed likely today. Honestly, the best thing Metal Gear Solid 3 had going for on right now was that it would be sharing a poll with a probably stronger Metal Gear Solid 3 game. I think board 8 still slightly favored Metal Gear Solid 3, but it honestly shouldn't be favored today. There would be no reason really for Mass Effect 2 to be weaker than BioShock. The first on proved itself legit and the second one is the fan favorite. That's how things looked at this point, now, take a moment to realize how many probabilities from this paragraph would end up happening. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6145&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=95) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (7)Starcraft vs (2)Mass Effect 2 2015 _source: (7)Starcraft vs (2)Mass Effect 2 2015 (revid 84386)_ ## Results **Round Two** Saturday, November 28, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 8 - **Match \#:** 96 - **Match Date:** Saturday, November 28, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Mass Effect 2 - 54.32% 66 for - 18 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Mass Effect 2 - 45.40% Before getting into anything else, let's get into some round 2 Stars and Turds! Last edition for the contest as a whole, since I don't think anything getting into round 3 and beyond can be classified as a turd. Even if something looked bad. Star of the Round - Chrono Trigger, honorable mentions to Undertale and the Zelda series. I know Zelda looked off, but it was sporting a 10-0 contest record after round 2. That counts for something. Turd of the Round - The Grand Theft Auto series, with honorable mentions to Final Fantasy X, the Fallout series, the Metal Gear Solid series, and Starcraft. Speaking of Starcraft, let's talk about how utterly dumb this match was and how horrible a match this was for Starcraft. I named it a turd because watching Starcraft fail to show up in a rally vs rally match was just asinine. In 2004, Starcraft scored 56631 votes against Halo, 40698 votes against Kingdom Hearts, 41480 votes against Wind Waker, and 48548 votes against Melee. In 2009, Starcraft scored 33616 votes to get second place in its round 1 match, then 21854 votes to get third place and lose in round 2. For whatever reason, Starcraft didn't show up in that contest. In this contest, it scored 24176 votes against Destiny in round 1, and then followed that up with this nonsense in round 2. 21228 for Starcraft in a 24 hour rally match, given how everyone used to be scared to death of this game being able to win any match at will, was unforgivable. I don't really blame Starcraft though, I blame Activi\$ion for just ruining Blizzard beyond repair. I cannot even begin to tell you how awful Starcraft 2 is. Can you believe that 11 years after that 2004 contest, Starcraft would be in a match that was entirely decided by whether or not its opponent allowed rally threads on Reddit? It seems ridiculous, but that's what happened. When I made my bracket, I picked Mass Effect 2 here out of pure, unapologetic fanboyism. There are logical reasons to be sure, but I wanted Activi\$ion to lose. These contests are more fun when you just cheer for your favorites and root against what you hate. I also figured Mass Effect 2 would be exactly the kind of game Starcraft would have trouble rallying against, but this was no time for logic. Early on in this match, Mass Effect 2 rode bracket votes to a very slim early lead. This match was 53-47 at the freeze, and everyone immediately assumed Starcraft would just rally and win because Starcraft does not lose close matches unless it cheats. Mass Effect 2 began to slowly build a lead over the next couple hours, which would peak at 340 at 2:30 am. At this time, Starcraft began to rally. It was hardly a rally on the scale of Undertale, but it was enough to get the job done. Mass Effect's 340 vote lead disappeared before the sun came up, and Starcraft was easily able to blow on by Mass Effect and win the morning vote. There was some resistance by Mass Effect 2, but not enough to prevent Starcraft from trending upward and looking like it was well on its way to a comfortable win in the 52-48 range. But then shortly after 10, the counter-rally started. It was pretty impressive in scale, too, because Mass Effect 2 was able to erase a 566 vote lead in all of 2½ hours. Against an opponent that was rallying in its own right, and that opponent was Starcraft of all things. But once Mass Effect 2 tied the match and started building a lead, things got really weird. The subreddit mods started disallowing rally threads there, which led to the match staying deadlocked for a few hours. But then around ASV time, the mods allowed rally threads, and the combined force of rallying plus the ASV buried Starcraft for good. This match was basically tied at 3 pm, but finished with Mass Effect 2 winning by 977. The lead actually peaked at 1110 at 10:30 before Starcraft made a last-ditch push for the last 90 minutes, but it did nothing more than make Mass Effect 2's final margin of victory a little bit smaller. Props to Mass Effect 2 for winning here, but Starcraft shit the bed. I never thought I'd ever see the day where Starcraft lost a close match where both sides were rallying, but here we are. It's the twilight zone to think about the fact that this match was only decided by whether or not r/masseffect mods felt like allowing rally threads. One would assume Starcraft could out-rally anything, but then again Activi\$ion ruined everything that used to be good about Blizzard and gamers have really noticed. Then again I never thought I would see Samus 60-40 Mario in any realm, yet this contest gave us that too. This whole contest was awesome when it pertained to paradigm shifts, and we got a lot of those as things transpired. ### Ctes' Analysis This match ranks among the most exciting to watch in the whole contest. Most pre-contest discussion in this division was about whether or not Mass Effect 2 stood a chance against the Metal Gear Solid games. I don't think many people considered Starcraft making this the match of the round. Destroying Destiny was viewed mostly as the latter being weak as hell, but Starcraft showed today it was worth a lot. Of course, most of what made this match as great as it was can easily be contributed to rallying. Notably large outside rallies changing match results are usually not well-liked here, but today we had two games fighting with their rallies somewhat equally. This is also the match where Nick officially lost his call powers by abusing them attempting to win a testicle bet. To elaborate on this, Nick and Alec made a bet on the show on this match. Nick supported Starcraft and Alec supported Mass Effect 2. Nick was the one to put up a really succesful Starcraft rally on reddit and then made his trademark topic “When Mass Effect 2 got this all wrapped up… consider it CALLED. That's just not how it works! Anyway, Mass Effect 2 started out building a small lead, showing that it was probably gonna win this match without any rallies, but it might very well just be bracket votes. When you consider that, things didn't look too great against the remaining Mass Effect game. It took only a bit more than two hours before Starcraft began cutting with the rally Nick had put up. It wasn't the strongest thing, but it got the job done. At the 5:25 mark, Starcraft successfully took the lead! This game here, 11 years later, could still pull its old tricks. At this point people already started worrying about a similar run! Starcraft was just at the right point of the bracket to make it. The Metal Gear Solid had looked horrible and the Division 7 winner wouldn't be a particularly strong game either. Due to spillover from this match, BioShock was making a joke out of Snake Eater. This was a major throwback to 2004. Even if its rally powers were weaker, it might still work. Mass Effect 2 was debated to pull some upsets in this division without them. Starcraft was currently beating that game! Of course, it had to win today before another Cinderella run should actually be discussed. It was currently winning, but the lead building was somewhat bumpy. That said, when the match had been on for over 10 hours and the lead was above 500 votes, I think most people considered this a sealed deal. Well, apparently Mass Effect 2 can rally too! Now this is where the match gets truly exciting. I mean, it showed it could rally a very little bit previously but not much. Here Mass Effect 2 had its chance to prove what the series was truly capable of! And damn, was it capable of rallying, in just two hours Mass Effect 2 took the lead like those 500 votes were nothing. A combination of the rally it had itself and perhaps also Starcraft's rally slowing down a bit. Mass Effect 2 looked to have this match completely under control at this point. Then Starcraft randomly fights back and this was the absolute best part of the match. Both games had showed incredible rally strength. Mass Effect 2 didn't even get above 100 votes before Starcraft turned it around down to the 14 hour mark where we get a tie! It was truly intense. Next thing that happens is that Mass Effect 2 leads by 5 votes, despite Starcraft just cutting almost 100 votes off with ease. Mass Effect 2 completely refused to let go of the lead again. The next couple of had Mass Effect 2 leading by 2 votes, then 4, then 16 and then 9. Starcraft would hold it close a little longer until its rally completely died and Mass Effect 2 was able to take off. At this point, it never truly looked back again. Starcraft cut a lot, and actually managed to take a +1100 vote lead blow 1000 in the end, but the match was over. Mass Effect 2 had put up a really impressive performance today! Mass Effect 2 really looked like it could make the division finals at this point. The series has proved itself to be legit, the Metal Gear Solid series had disappointed match after match, Mass Effect 2 had even just shown noteworthy rally capabilities, and those seemed to be pretty brutal for Metal Gear Solid 3 today, when it wasn't even about that. Mass Effect 2 winning in round 3 should still be considered an upset, but people that picked it seemed to have great chances at getting points from that match. It was a fantastic way to end the round. Much more exciting that the way round 1 ended. This is when rallies can actually be considered fun. I get the hype around a game winning unexpectedly due to a rally, but that's never really exciting. Rally matches usually mean boring matches. Sure the board goes crazy but the match itself tends to be boring. Today it was not, because both games had rallies seemingly equal, so they just meant we'd have a close match with quite the vote swings in more impressive numbers that we're used to these days. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6146&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=96) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Chrono Trigger vs (4)Final Fantasy X 2015 _source: (1)Chrono Trigger vs (4)Final Fantasy X 2015 (revid 84387)_ ## Results **Round Three** Sunday, November 29, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 1 - **Match \#:** 97 - **Match Date:** Sunday, November 29, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Chrono Trigger - 57.55% 75 for - 10 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Chrono Trigger - 57.09% Finally, user-made match pics! greatone completely stole the show this year, beginning the this godlike Chrono Trigger picture. He started from there and just kept on rolling, finishing up with the best match pic we've ever had. I made some good stuff myself, including a few pictures that were shared exponentially on the internet thanks to rallies, but I know I'm not as good the guys with true talent. As for this match, it started our format change of two matches per day instead of four since Allen wanted round 3 and onwards to be important, and this match was also one of the most alarming blowouts we've ever had. It's worth noting that before this contest, FFX was the 59% guru favorite for a multitude of logical reasons. Chrono Trigger was on the decline for years on this site, while FFX was a model of consistency. We kind of assumed that Chrono Trigger would have declined enough to be below FFX by now, and most people just penciled in SSBM \> FFX for the divisional final without thinking about it much. There were also the 2009 stats, which had FFX ahead, plus the alarming downward trend of the Chrono Trigger characters. Crono has won one match since 2008 (and it was against pure fodder garbage), and the other characters are basically jokes. The gurus that had Chrono Trigger were mostly picking it out of faith, and most acknowledged that it was the underdog before this contest started. Then the contest got going. With two rounds in the books, it became very clear that Chrono Trigger was going to win this match. It pulled off two of the biggest blowouts of the contest, including the biggest of round 2, while Final Fantasy X looked rather average in round 1 against Half-Life and looked like outright trash in round 2 against Mega Man X. And even with all that writing on the wall, there was no way to prepare for the beating we were about to witness. I know LOL X-stats and all that, but 51-49 in the stats doesn't turn into a near doubling by accident. If you check the oracle, almost everyone undershot Chrono Trigger by a lot. It was tough to be psychologically ready for this, even among the people predicting the match in real-time. So when the match started and Chrono Trigger had a doubling on Final Fantasy X, the place freaked out. Then the second update hit, and Chrono Trigger went up by two whole percentage points. It was right about here where people were quite literally calling this contest over. An LFFd FFX was worth 35% on Ocarina in the 2009 stats. Chrono Trigger was over that with ease 10 minutes in, and threatened to make this a whole lot worse. It would ultimately settle down, thanks to things like dead zones and slow Chrono Trigger day votes, but the damage was already done. This match caused a ton of wildfires, most notably people thinking Chrono Trigger would win the entire contest. Even now, people are putting adjusted stats out there with Chrono Trigger, not Undertale or Ocarina or Melee, as the kingpin. People thought for good reason that CT at this power level could have easily beaten Melee, then FF7, then whatever came out of the Mario gauntlet, then Ocarina in the final due to the bandwagon effect. I personally find all that to be a bit dumb, but hey, not my adjustments. yoblazer said this best in the stats topic and I 100% agree: contests don't work like that anymore. Every match is its own match, and stats no longer matter. For those who know my opinion on stats making things too easy, you can extrapolate that out into why I think our newfound age of rally dominance is a good thing. This match also cemented FFX as the turd of the contest, or at least one of them. I don't bother with stars and turds past round 2 since I don't like disrespecting anything that wins twice, but FFX pretty much stunk up the place here. I think a lot more went into this match than Chrono Trigger simply going nuts. FFX just went into the tank this contest, there was a massive old \> new theme going on, and I really think there was a huge contingency of voters that took the contest's title into account when voting. Lastly, can this match finally convince people to stop trusting Final Fantasy X? I feel like that game disappoints people every year, and in thinking this I whipped up yet another LIST™. This one is the list of Final Fantasy X choke jobs. This is only a list where FFX was expected to win or have a close match; close wins are not included here. That's 23 examples of choke jobs. Twenty-three. When will people learn to stop trusting this game? Tidus beating Shadow the Hedgehog in 2004 is the last time that game has won a debated match. Everything since has been either an obvious win where there is no way it could have lost, a loss, or an early blowout. No, the 2009 games contest does not count as FFX having a good contest. That contest was divisions by era, and it got perhaps the luckiest draw of that entire contest. Ocarina quite literally carried FFX into the final (which began one round after Melee utterly destroyed it), where it proceeded to get last place. There is not a doubt in my mind that Melee would easily break 55% on FFX these days, if not 60%. When that happens, FFX fans will be SHOCKED AND AMAZED. And no, FFX would not have beaten Melee if that was the Game of the Decade final. That Majora's Mask was able to rally past FFX as a form of Melee Revenge proves this, not to mention what Melee did later on in this very contest. The other thing is I vividly remember people being SHOCKED AND AMAZED during every single one of these matches. It's really time to stop having any faith in that game whatsoever; people clearly see it as the beginning of the end of Square and vote accordingly. The game is simply not that strong, but people put an inordinate amount of faith in it every single contest season. Stop that. It's going to disappoint you and lose every single time. If all these HD remakes couldn't help it, nothing will. It's over. FFX is done. ### Ctes' Analysis Today, casuals got to murder Board 8 completely and hilariously. As a casual, you look at this match and see the overall \#1 seed facing the \#4 seed of this division. Then you don't think much more about that. Board 8 and other experts remember the 2009 contest though. The contest where Chrono Trigger lost to Super Mario 64 twice to face a round 3 exit and where Final Fantasy X made the finale. And despite taking huge advantage of the Ocarina of Time/Melee/RBY collision to reach the finale, that was still a lot more impressive than what Chrono Trigger came up with. Final Fantasy X also looked very impressive in 2010 where it seemed to actually be stronger than Melee for once. Chrono Trigger always stood a chance in board 8's eyes, but there was solid reasoning to pick Final Fantasy X. Then this happens. Not only did Final Fantasy X not win this match, it didn't even get close, in fact it got destroyed. This result is insanity. I mean, Chrono Trigger impressed greatly in the first two rounds and Board 8 had definitely changed their mind on this one, but for Chrono Trigger to nearly double here is crazy. GameFAQs really loves it! I guess for once you could've actually used the list and the seeding as indication that the game would likely emerge victorious in debatable matches, but this match had 45992 votes, the list had about 2000 people participating and people nominating were not at all this many either. You wouldn't expect such things to be that great representation for everybody that visits the front page. They never are! Nick's rallies on the Facebook page had so few likes too, that while they might contribute, they do in no way explain this insane blowout. I'm a huge fan of Final Fantasy X. It's my second favorite game of what is one of my favorite franchises losing only to my favorite game of all time. It's probably a top 10 game for me too. Absolutely fantastic set of characters, cast chemistry, gameplay, story etc. The ending is probably the best ending to any video game. That said, Chrono Trigger is my actual second favorite game. Seeing that redeem itself to 2004 strength in beyond is incredibly satisfying. Final Fantasy X probably dropped a little bit, but the reasons for its seemingly poor performances this contest probably says a lot more about its SNES opponents. I'll contribute 90% of this blowout to Chrono Trigger's newfound insane strength. At this point of the contest, Chrono Trigger should be considered the strongest game on the site before outside forces interject. It should also be considered the big favorite against Melee and the favorite against the redeemed Final Fantasy VII too. No one doubted it'd suffer defeat to Undertale if RBY failed against it, because Chrono Trigger wouldn't be able to compete with rallies, but it was actually being discussed if Chrono Trigger could best Ocarina of Time in a match with Ocarina of Time's strongest argument probably being that Zelda drones would find support for it if needed. On GameFAQs strength alone, Chrono Trigger looked like the king. After Crono flopping year after year from the 2005 finale and onwards except perhaps riding on SFF to the finale 2008, it's really nice seeing his game not only be strong again, but perhaps being the best. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6147&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=97) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Super Smash Bros. Melee vs (10)Kingdom Hearts II 2015 _source: (3)Super Smash Bros. Melee vs (10)Kingdom Hearts II 2015 (revid 84388)_ ## Results **Round Three** Sunday, November 29, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 1 - **Match \#:** 98 - **Match Date:** Sunday, November 29, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Smash Bros. Melee - 58.79% 85 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Smash Bros. Melee - 39.55% Hey remember last round when Chrono Trigger beat the hell out of its competition while its pending opponent looked like trash? It's almost like we had a rehash of that, and the percentages were actually a bit eerie. In round 2, Final Fantasy X only got 55.48% on Mega Man X. Not a match that was ever going to be in doubt, but that's about as bad as one can look in a match that was a guaranteed win. Then this match happened, and Melee finished with only 55.3% on Kingdom Hearts 2. The obvious side note here is KH2 would beat MMX 1v1, so hey more proof of Melee \> FFX. Like Hulk Hogan in the Yappapi Indian Strap Match, I will never stop. This match wasn't so bad for Melee at the beginning, as it was over 60% early. But this was also the match that showed us just how hilarious Melee's trends are. It's practically joke trends. That game loves to dominate early, then fall of a cliff before recovering during the day vote. Well in this match, it had over 60% early, then fell off a cliff until ending the match at 55-45. Kingdom Hearts 2 got several cuts during the match, went out like a champ, and completely spelled the death of Super Smash Bros. Melee against Chrono Trigger. I won't even front and pretend that match wouldn't have been a thorough annihilation were it a fair match. It would have been a miracle had Melee broken even 40%. All the evidence was there after KH2 completely embarrassed Melee here in round 3. We know what eventually would happen, but I do want to make sure to give Chrono Trigger its props before completely burying it. If you think FFX's choke job list is awful, wait until you see that one. No game has been involved in more controversy, close matches, or general insanity on this web site than Chrono Trigger. By the way I've gotten some questions about why I call non-rally matches "fair" when I'm pro-rally. It's the Magic player in me. In that game, people differentiate between fair decks and unfair decks by whether or not there's interaction between the two players. If one player can run a deck where the opponent does not even remotely matter and winning depends entirely on whether or not one's deck can go off, it's considered an unfair deck because there's no interaction. The short of it is combo decks are called unfair, because people are whiny-ass crybabies. ### Ctes' Analysis This match went pretty much as you'd normally expect. Kingdom Heart II was never going to stand a chance at winning today, but it was expected to look pretty good going out, and it did! A bunch of people in the oracle guessed Melee to finish significantly better than this, but that was after seeing it rallying against GSC in a match is was already winning last round. GSC is expected to be stronger than Kingdom Hearts II, so naturally, if Melee broke 60% on that it should do better here. It's pretty solid reasoning, but such things are terribly hard to predict. Today, there would be no rallies for Melee, which is really weird. You'd start wondering if they simply feared GSC rallies and didn't fear any for Kingdom Hearts II, if they just forget or what happening. We're still wondering about that btw. Melee's rally against GSC is one of the weirdest things post-contest, because there is no clear explanation of what happening there. It's nice to see Kingdom Hearts II not getting buried in rallies and look good going out. Makes the series look good in the end despite the first game losing its round 1 match. As for the division finals, Melee had been the board favorite before the contest started. There was reason to believe Melee could pull it of too even with Chrono Trigger destroying Up Your Arsenal and Dragon Quest VIII. However, with how Chrono Trigger annihilated Final Fantasy X as this match went on, I don't think a single person believed Melee stood a chance there. Let's look at it this way; who would you pick in a match between Final Fantasy X and Kingdom Hearts II? I don't think anybody would side with the latter in that one. Did Chrono Trigger SFF Final Fantasy X? It'd make sense there's be some SFF in that match, but consider how little SFF we've had this contest and how different those two games actually are. Today, Melee looked to be something Chrono Trigger would run over before it got to play with the real big names. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6148&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=98) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Final Fantasy VI vs (4)The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker 2015 _source: (1)Final Fantasy VI vs (4)The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker 2015 (revid 84389)_ ## Results **Round Three** Monday, November 30, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 2 - **Match \#:** 99 - **Match Date:** Monday, November 30, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy VI - 55.67% 77 for - 9 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Final Fantasy VI - 35.89% Some nutjob actually sent me a PM recently with some ridiculous 2398764 word defense of Wind Waker (numbers approximate), which I only skimmed. When you're on social media a lot, you learn to avoid and spot idiots very quickly. So when I see someone defend Wind Waker with things like "it made Nintendo's business practices better", "the graphics are the best in the series", and "the gameplay is good because cheap enemies like Stalfos and Dark Link, enemies you could only defeat with luck, were toned down or removed", I know I don't need to bother taking anything said by such a clown seriously. I was actually going to save all this until I was less busy, read it in full and give a proper rebuttal, but then the moron sent me another PM on Christmas with the typical "oh you didn't respond, obviously I win" garbage. If there was ever something or someone that proved every single point I've made about Wind Waker over the years, this was it. That game ruined Nintendo, because they dumbed everything down for the lowest common denominator like whoever that idiot was. It actually worked for some reason, and between Wind Waker and the DS, Nintendo has not recovered. Now we have people who are so dumb that they think people should drop everything they're doing during the holidays to respond to their manic nonsense. First and foremost, this is the cheapest enemy in the history of Zelda: Anyone calling Stalfos or Dark Link in Ocarina of Time only beatable by luck would shit their diapers if they tried to play though Zelda 2. Guys like me and transience, true old-school gamers who revel in difficult games and really enjoy a challenge, laugh at Ocarina's version of Dark Link. We laugh at Ocarina's difficulty in general, but hey. The other thing here is while graphics are subjective, certain things are objectively idiotic. Wind Waker's ocean overworld is idiotic, and that ungodly moronic Tingle Triforce shit is unreal. Know why every Nintendo game has forced fetch quest bullshit now? Wind Waker, and the people who actually thought Tingle's garbage was good. I'd go farther, but you get the idea. Wind Waker is shit, and this match was so far beyond justice that I can't even find the proper words to describe how necessary this match was for the gaming world. There was a lot of debate surrounding this match, mainly because of people with Wind Waker PTSD like me who were petrified of it winning this match and people actually thinking it was somehow a better game than Final Fantasy 6. Final Fantasy in general doesn't beat Zelda in debated matches. But this was a contest loaded with good results and gamers really getting it right. We saw Samus beat Mario. We saw Starcraft lose a rally war. We saw Metal Gear Solid beat Shadow of the Bad Controls. And we saw mother fucking Final Fantasy 6, one of the five best games ever made, bury that piece of absolute trash. The match was close by the numbers, don't get me wrong, but it was never truly in doubt. Wind Waker made one threat to win this match, which was an update early on where it cut 50 votes. Beyond that, this was a perfectly comfortable and perfectly boring 54-46 win. No Zelda day vote magic, no FF6 day vote collapse. None of it. Just an all-time great game beating the shit out of all-time piece of sewage. Wind Waker was the first Zelda game to lose in this contest, which was very fitting. It's the worst game in that series (the CD-i games are at least in the "so bad they're funny" camp), one of the worst games ever made, and had no business even threatening to beat Final Fantasy 6. Thank you based GameFAQs voters for making the right decision here. Fuck Wind Waker for ruining a company I once loved, and the lowest common denominator types who defend it as a great new direction for Nintendo can screw off, too. Go pretend trash like Phantom Hourglass, Spirit Tracks, Linkle, Link's Crossbow Training, Tingle's Rosy Rupeeland, and every other cash grab piece of garbage is good. Real gamers like me will continue playing and enjoying real games. ### Ctes' Analysis This match result is quite spectacular. Final Fantasy VI was always the favorite going into this match, being the only Final Fantasy \#1 seed and even further more when it became clear it was the Year of SNES, but it never felt right to just write this match off from the start. It never feels right to pick the Final Fantasy game in a debated match against a Zelda a game and it hasn't felt right since 2005 really. Since this was expected to be close, you couldn't help but worry that the Zelda game would triumph, even if it is Wind Waker, seemingly the weakest of the 3D Zelda games (that are in the contest of course). Final Fantasy VI now finally had it prove itself before it could face the poll of the day rematch. When the match started, Final Fantasy VI quickly took a solid lead, being more than 50 votes ahead at the freeze and it more than doubled that the next update. Then it slowed down a bit making it clear who was the board favorite as well as who had brackets, if there was somehow any doubt about that. Still slowing down, it had a 200 vote lead after half an hour, almost exceeding what the biggest comebacks have been able to pull. Then a crazy update happened. Wind Waker cut 49 votes. This made the stats topics go crazy. Had Wind Waker just cut a little bit, then no worries, Final Fantasy VI was never gonna go a full match without that happened, but 49 votes in one update seemed really sudden. The next update Wind Waker cut off 8 more votes, nothing much, but still a cut. Perhaps these two updates should just have been balanced better, it was reasonable to worry a bit if you wanted Final Fantasy VI to win. But it takes three updates for a trend and the next update, Final Fantasy VI gained 20 votes, followed by 43, making Wind Waker's attempt totally irrelevant. Final Fantasy VI never looked back after that. It's not Wind Waker never cut again, but Final Fantasy VI would just take it back next update, essentially building its lead until the match ended. Nobody worried about it again and most people stopped paying attention a few updates after the early attempt from Wind Waker. But a result like this almost never happens! When is the last time a Zelda/Final Fantasy match where the loser broke 45% had the losing game being Zelda? That would the answer. Furthermore, the only other two times it has happened is when Final Fantasy VII beat Ocarina of Time in 2004 and when Cloud beat Link in 2003, both at the peak of Final Fantasy VII's popularity. It's been so long since it happened, that it feels incredibly refreshing to see again! Even if might've taken a combination of NostalgiaFAQs and Year of SNES for it to happen, it happened! Final Fantasy VI looked to lose easily next match, but it at least contributed to Final Fantasy's victories against Zelda before going out. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6149&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=99) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Super Smash Bros. for Wii U vs (2)Final Fantasy VII 2015 _source: (3)Super Smash Bros. for Wii U vs (2)Final Fantasy VII 2015 (revid 84390)_ ## Results **Round Three** Monday, November 30, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 2 - **Match \#:** 100 - **Match Date:** Monday, November 30, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy VII - 65.98% 84 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Final Fantasy VII - 68.81% This was our first uninteresting match of round 3, which bummed me out a little. I love Final Fantasy 7 and wanted it to win, don't get me wrong, but Smash U deserves more love. It's unfortunately anchored down by two major problems in these polls -- the Wii U sucks and its name. Seriously, does any video game have a more unappealing name than "Super Smash Bros. for Wii U"? If we had "Super Smash Bros. for Gamecube" instead of Melee, I really wonder if this series would have ever gotten off the ground. It sucks, because I'm positive Smash U has a ceiling because of it and it should be much stronger as a game. Second best game in that series (but it's very close), and now it's getting Bayonetta on top of Cloud recently debuting. I can't think of a single game that does DLC better, and I'm more than happy to buy it all. Not that it made this match remotely interesting, but hey. It was fun watching Smash U copy Melee's trend of collapsing after the first hour, and Allen missed a golden opportunity to give us a Cloud vs Cloud match picture here. It's not like it would have mattered for the match at all. This also cemented that FF6 was not going to upset FF7, even with that poll everyone brings up. FF6 struggled with garbage, while FF7 annihilated a popular Smash title. Pretty easy trends to pick up on there. ### Ctes' Analysis This match wasn't quite as interesting to follow at any point of the match, as the other one of the division and I believe everybody thought it would be. Perhaps if Smash 4 wasn't hindered by a nostalgia heavy contest, being on the Wii U, its own darn boring name and had come out when Final Fantasy VII was at the peak of its anti-votes this could've been a real match. That's so many hindrances though. I'm so sad that Smash 4 couldn't have come out on a better console and with a better name. It would've been such a strong contender in these contests, at least the strongest game of this decade by pretty large margins, a title that Skyrim probably has now, or of course Undertale if outside forces are included. Even people that utterly hate the Wii U appreciates Smash 4 a lot, just ask Ulti! It's brilliant, you don't find better multiplayer games out there. The only thing Melee truly has against this game is Single Player mode, which is better, but that's really it. Sadly, Smash 4 has a much lower playrate, a very dull name and it on the Wii U, so of course it's leagues behind Melee. I think Smash 4 could've gotten the kind of rallies Melee had if not for these things I just mentioned. The post-release stuff for the game has been fantastic as well. I love how they handles DLC and much respect to the creators for not beginning to create DLC until after releasing the game, because that's one of the most annoying things of gaming today and EA in particular are major offenders to that. In this game, you can literally create a match that is Mario vs. Link vs. Pikachu vs. Mega Man vs. Sonic vs. Pac-Man vs. Ryu vs. Cloud. Can we take a minute to think about how terribly unrealistic that would've looked some years ago? Add Samus and Bayonetta to that, it's a dream come true! This game is the best multiplayer I have ever experienced, they even constantly balance patched after the game released. You can't ask for more! But as it is, Smash 4 has a clear ceiling in these contests. It managed to look great againts Planescape, but the ceiling became clear in the following matches. Also, I don't believe it actually made that much of a difference, but if Cloud's recent inclusion could've boosted this game at all, this was the only game Smash 4 should've have encountered, since obviously the people that would be more willing to vote for Smash 4 now than before still prefers Final Fantasy VII. With how big a shame it is that Smash 4 is in the position it is, it's also really great to see Final Fantasy VII be back on track again, not to its 2004 strength, but certainly above what it has been for some years. Every round it has looked a lot better than Final Fantasy VI and this round was certainly no exception to that. Its place in the quarter-finals was completely cemented, where it would seemingly have a huge unforeseen challenge in Chrono Trigger waiting. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6150&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=100) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (8)Pokémon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green vs (12)Sonic the Hedgehog 2 2015 _source: (8)Pokémon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green vs (12)Sonic the Hedgehog 2 2015 (revid 84391)_ ## Results **Round Three** Tuesday, December 1, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 3 - **Match \#:** 101 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, December 1, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Pokémon Red/Blue - 67.50% 83 for - 1 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Pokémon Red/Blue - 31.81% This match was never going to be anything other than a blowout in Pokemon's favor, but the presence of the Undertale rally coinciding with tumblr's favorite game sharing the poll meant our second straight round of RBYG dominance and insane vote totals for division 3. Had Undertale kicked it into gear a little earlier, this may have ended up only the third match ever in round 3 or later where the winner broke 80%. The other two are Mario beating Donkey Kong in 2002 and Zelda beating Metroid in the series contest, with the latter still being our biggest late-round blowout. For Pokemon to be near those numbers without SFF is really impressive. For the record, this was a 75-25 beating before Undertale took off, so it's not like Pokemon wasn't proving itself a top tier game on this site without the help. But with the help, it was over. This set up what many felt would be the true final of this contest in Pokemon vs Undertale, since it would be the first Undertale match where rallying would take place on the opponent's stronghold. A lot of people feel like Chrono Trigger would have won this contest had rallying never happened, but I honestly believe Pokemon RBYG would have done it. The numbers it pulled off through three rounds were insane, it came as close to beating Undertale as anything else, and I really don't think CT, FF7, or Ocarina could have beaten a bandwagoned Pokemon that late. Remember, we're talking about a no-rally contest so I'm not including Melee in the examples there. Who really would have beaten Pokemon this year without rallies? I don't think anyone would have, and Pokemon is pretty overdue to actually win one of these things. Everyone talks about PokeFEAR, but it's never even made a final. It needs a contest win to justify all these insane numbers over the years. It's proven it can beat top tier Nintendo, so it needs to take that final step. ### Ctes' Analysis This match is such insanity that screws x-stats completely and makes one of my very favorite seventh generation games, Uncharted 2, look way worse than it was. Quite the shame. This match was obviously never gonna be close, but RBY nearly breaking 80% is so insane. Sonic 2 is from the right generation, but it's actually ridiculously weak. Portal 2 and Uncharted 2 are simply just the kind of games to get a lot weaker now, allowing the very weak Sonic 2 to get past them, but RBY is in a whole different league. It's a beast. Today showed that. I know people will credit Undertale for RBY's performance today, and while it helps, RBY was above 72% from the beginning of the poll and just kept on rising from there. Only seven people had RBY above where it started in the oracle challenge and eventually RBY got beyond what even its strongest supporters there expected of it. Rally spillover or not, no one expected RBY to be this strong. Undertale in the meantime was putting up quite a performance against Super Mario World, taking care of it easier than the weaker Fallout 3 as a result of the rallies having gotten stronger and Super Mario World being harder to rally for, but RBY looked like a king in the meantime. It was clear that RBY would be a real challenge for the rallied Undertale. It showed that. I don't think how things would've turned out today, but I fully believe RBY at least wins in round 2 and of course round 1 against Undertale and I actually believe it would win this round as well. RBY proved itself last round, but today was when it showed itself as a contender for the absolute strongest game after Ocarina of Time. Back in 2009, it was briefly discussed that RBY was a possible choice for the third strongest game after its performances there, but it was hard to tell. I think it proved itself a top 5 game at least here today, finally having a challenge next round. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6151&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=101) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (6)Undertale vs (2)Super Mario World 2015 _source: (6)Undertale vs (2)Super Mario World 2015 (revid 84392)_ ## Results **Round Three** Tuesday, December 1, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 3 - **Match \#:** 102 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, December 1, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Undertale - 53.24% 73 for - 11 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Undertale - 3.73% "Looks like free exp." This was the match where Undertale showed us its true strategy. It basically sits there and plays dead at the beginning of the poll, then does the spider dance: By the time its opponent actually knows what's going on, it's already dead. Mario World made the fatal mistake of not buying Spider Donuts and contributing to the unification of all spiderkind. Never forget that Muffet was the true hero. She had the most noble goal of anyone! Although to wind it back for a moment, Mario World was well above 70% at the start of this poll and looked to be in decent shape. But much like Fallout 3, Mario World began bleeding an insane amount of percentage overnight. But unlike Fallout 3, there was no illusion of Mario World actually being able to win this match. Don't forget that despite Fallout's percentage bleed, it built up a 6800 vote lead. Mario World barely tried half as hard. It built up a 2400 vote lead a couple hours in, and Undertale starting firing off rallies right then and there. It got the lead down to 2000 overnight before Mario World stabilized and recovered overnight, but the damage was already done. Undertale had found a new form where the bandwagon was getting started earlier and earlier in its matches, to where even though Mario World was building up a lead after Undertale cut 400, we all knew what was coming once everyone woke up later on. Mario World would ultimately peak at 3224 at 7:30 am, and from there the slow downward spiral began. Undertale usually doesn't peak this early and wasn't used to actually making cuts during the morning vote, so it had to get its 8 legs under it during this match and start practicing! These two would stay relatively even for the next couple hours, but around 9:30 it just all fell apart for Mario. The rallies started kicking into high gear, and by this point in the contest everyone knew what was coming. Those 150 vote updates and Mario World's struggle turned into a complete burial, with Undertale quickly pulling in 250 vote updates and getting upwards of 60% of the vote. The scary thing with this match is Undertale took the lead before its best time kicked in. The lead change happened at 2 in the afternoon, which is usually when Undertale takes off. And true to form, Undertale went completely berserk during this time and started pulling in regular updates with 65-70% of the vote. A once-promising match turned into a very comfortable 55-45 win, with a final margin of 9559. Mario World fought valiantly for a little while, but ultimately it got buried like the rest. I think a big reason for this is even though everyone knows Mario, it's very difficult to rally for the guy. So while Undertale got going rather early in this match, Mario wasn't able to counter very well and put up perhaps the weakest effort of any of Undertale's opponents to this point. You can imagine how bad the whining got here, too. Mass Effect 3 was mostly a "whatever" response, since many felt the game deserved it. Fallout 3 got the whining and idiotic threats going, because people are dumb, but even then it was just a Western RPG losing. But Nintendo is sacred on this site, and when Mario World lost and it looked like Undertale might bandwagon and win the contest, people went far enough to give it 0 ratings both on this site and Metacritic. Past that, the whole narrative of "Undertale is ruining matches we wanted to see!" started up, which is beyond idiotic to me. If you look at this bracket in the same way you look at sports (which I kind of do!), that logic makes no sense. You can't get excited about a tournament based on games that might happen; you get excited based on "anyone can win" and rooting for your favorites. Kentucky losing their undefeated season before the final game in the NCAAs last year didn't ruin anything, the Panthers losing their undefeated season today didn't ruin the NFL season, the Cardinals routinely choking in the baseball playoffs after having the best regular season record doesn't ruin the baseball season, the San Jose Sharks regularly choking in the hockey playoffs after having the best regular season record doesn't ruin the hockey season, and Undertale's run in this contest sure as fuck didn't ruin anything. Getting bummed out because of not seeing a potential event is always going to leave you disappointed, but if you just take things as they come you'll generally lead a pretty satisfied life. This would set up a titan vs titan showdown for the division, and everyone felt it would decide the contest one way or another. Pokemon is the game on tumblr, so at least one of Undertale's rally points would potentially be compromised. We saw a lot of evidence for this with how Pokemon exploded along with This is also why the phrase of the Fall 2015 Contest was "backfire rate". I personally think that theory is a bunch of made-up shit that people threw out there to convince themselves Undertale could be out-ralled, so I'll let someone else explain it. The reason why I think it's dumb is because when you ask people to rally, the result is almost always one of two things: a vote for what you asked for, or no vote. A large enough group of people voting against what you ask is a very dubious, negligible stat at best. But some people believe in it, so hey, good for them. Either way, Pokemon vs Undertale was shaping up to be a legendary match. After the match, thanks to an ungodly amount of whining and cheating accusations (some idiot on twitter put out a fake script image to suggest cheating in Undertale's favor), Allen was nice enough to step in and shut it down with a hilarious troll topic. "Turns out that a bot did indeed manipulate the vote." The only problem is that it's just the Twitter account @undertale_bot The account tweeted the following at 9:53am pst: Before this tweet, reddit was providing the most referral traffic that was voting for Undertale. Almost immediately after this tweet, the referrals coming in from Twitter jumped significantly and we saw the first huge spike in votes. You can confirm this yourself if you check Votes Over Time in the poll results (look between 12 and 14). I know a lot of people feel like this rally is done out of spite, but it seems unlikely that anybody could get that many people in on a single effort just to troll us. It's just people who like the game finding out about the poll and coming over to vote. I can assure you that we're very closely monitoring votes. Even ramping up our anti-stuffing code to a ridiculous degree had no impact on the results. It's just fans. This contest wasn't designed to be just for b8, or even just for GameFAQs, but for anyone who wants to participate. There is still plenty of time to try to drum up a rally for SMW if you're interested. Or perhaps you can look ahead to the next battle and plan it out from there. Social media isn't a tool exclusively for Undertale, afterall. SBAllen posted... It's literally in the rules that rallies are okay. "The games have been seeded by a combination of user nominations, popularity on GameFAQs, and critical and user game ratings, but don't forget: This is not a contest to see which game is your favorite, or even which one is the best rated. It's all a big popularity contest, and visitors who have never visited GameFAQs before will be sure to stop in and vote." Allen: Even ramping up our anti-stuffing code to a ridiculous degree had no impact on the results. RyusekiV2: You just can't admit that the code is garbage? Why defend this piece of S game. Allen: You know if botting is so easy that people who never even use GameFAQs can get past our countermeasures that they don't know exist, why aren't all of you guys botting votes for SMW? I mean clearly if our countermeasures are garbage, there's nothing to stop you, right? Right? Generally speaking, crybaby idiots should never get what they want, much like how the radical left should be laughed at at all times. For this reason, Draven winning two years ago was great, and Undertale continuing to win in this contest was even better. Keep those pacifier companies recession-proof, geniuses. ### Ctes' Analysis I don't know if anyone besides Heroic Mario actually doubted the outcome of this match. Undertale had clearly showed itself able to outrally the core votebase and a SNES game was not going to be able to fight back there. Year of SNES only applies on GameFAQs not outside of it, in fact, I think outside of GameFAQs SNES games might do a bit worse because games that are fresh and hot will have the most support. Hence why Undertale won this contest. This one was particularly painful for me though. First of all, in the so called Mario Gauntlet, none of the Mario games would now run into each other, but also because Super Mario World is a top 5 game to me and the game I have the most nostalgia associated with on top of that. This was the first game I beat at the age of 2 or 3 and I played it all the time. I had All-Stars for the SNES too, but preferred this above the NES Mario games. Super Mario World did of course have the lead early on, just like Mass Effect 3 and Fallout 3 before it. However, it was less convincing when it came to percentage. After half an hour, Undertale avoided the doubling already. Super Mario World would extend its lead significantly every update, but it was clear it wouldn't hold up when the rallies actually went rolling. The votals were also sky high straight out of the match. The outside really cared now. Two hours into the match, Undertale cut already and was cutting for about an hour, something it hadn't done in previous matches. It was clear as the day that Undertale few stronger every single round by large margins. However, three hours into the match, Super Mario World stopped it and started gaining again. Not fast and not without cuts now and then, but it gained. All those tumblr users did have school the next day after all. Super Mario World did continue to gain for a while, slowly and steadily building a lead that went over 3000 votes. However, at this point it was clearly not just the passionate teenage users of tumblr caring about this. It was a whole lot more. People still kept going on about that though. Defending the rallies by saying it was just passionate gamers. And while those were obviously still there and we're cool with those, there were also people doing this just to mess with us by now, and I mean a lot of them. Parts of the GameFAQs userbase also jumped on every round, but not too many, it was mostly just more outsiders seeing it. Users like BracketEntry, MWC and ExTha had given us all the bad reputation we needed to have for people to have an even easier time rallying for Undertale. It was also not just tumblr at this point, I think twitter was the biggest source of the rally at this point, and we saw posts there where they were clearly mocking us and shoving it in our face that they controlled our contest. Really sad that such users got to be the face of not only our board, but the site in general. 3224 votes would be the highest lead Super Mario World got. I just explained that the tumblr teenagers wasn't the only force anymore, but this match they made the difference. As soon as they woke, Undertale started cutting. It wasn't going fast at first but it was however a lot sooner than the previous rounds. We knew when Undertale's power hours was and it was clear as the day that it was just a matter of time before Undertale took the lead. While it started slow, it quickly became major cuts. Super Mario World actually looked really impressive doing this time. Occasionally, Undertale barely cut, but it was never going to be enough. It's a shame Super Mario World had to be fed to Undertale this year when SNES games were as strong as they were. I'd really love to see it face some elite games without rallying and show itself. Hopefully next time. As Undertale approached the lead change, a twitter profile named Undertalebot claimed to have rigged the votes. This was obviously just bait, but board 8 actually took it. It caused big commotion on the board with our beloved users being stupid, as they just provided more reason for outsiders to get Undertale to win. Sometimes, we're too easy. SBAllen then made a hilarious topic, but it was unfortunately served as more reason for board 8 to moan and outsiders to user against us. The topic title said that the bot did indeed manipulate the vote, but then the opening post explained that a large source of the votes were coming from twitter, thus it being legit rallying. Nice trolling, but I really wished he hadn't made out stupid users even more angry. We really didn't need that. Though I respect him for actually answering to the case, I don't think anybody changed their minds because of it. If someone believed they rigged the votes before, they still would. SBAllen added that you could just counterrally for Super Mario World, a comment that actually annoyed me a bit, because no, you definitely couldn't. Less than 14 hours in, Undertale had already taken the lead. From that point forward it was just slaughtering. It took the lead faster than last time once again. Still though, it was more than 12 hours. That's three out of three matches that Undertale would've lost in the format we had since Character Battle VIII and until this contest. Just interesting to point out. The rest of the match was just chaos and board 8 looking like morons. It might just be the thing that annoys me the most about all this. A majority of us that care about contests are just following them, accepting what happens and not being babies about it, but a few users completely ruin the reputation of the board, and most outsiders aren't smart enough to think that far. It's a darn shame. After the Fallout 3 match, it was pretty clear Undertale was not to be counterrallied. Especially not when it got stronger each round. Still, RBY seemed like the perfect counter to it. First of all, Undertale fans had greatly supported RBY too, creating some insane blowouts in its favor the past two rounds. But the Pokemon fanbase is also really passionate about their games, so if you could actually make them aware of the upcoming match, it might just be what was needed to stop Undertale. Undertale went into the match as the favorite yes, but people claiming that it was over before it began were definitely wrong. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6152&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=102) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim vs (5)Metroid Prime 2015 _source: (1)The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim vs (5)Metroid Prime 2015 (revid 84393)_ ## Results **Round Three** Wednesday, December 2, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 4 - **Match \#:** 103 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, December 2, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Skyrim - 49.97% 45 for - 38 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Skyrim - 42.08% Some people will blame rally spillover for why Metroid Prime took the early lead in this match, but I think it's a lot more simpler than that. Metroid Prime is really strong early in polls, and Skyrim was never quite on the world-beating level a lot of us Skyrim fans were hoping for. That's why we all picked it to lose to Mario 64 in our brackets. The rally spillover did clearly help with vote totals though, which is always awesome! Metroid Prime's trends, and really Metroid in general, are very well-known by now. Wreck shop in the first hour, bleed percentage overnight, and then totally collapse during the day vote. Those ugly trends tend to cost Metroid sooner or later in every contest, and in this contest those trends cost the Metroid series not one, but two major upsets. The Skyrim loss wasn't so bad, but it was Super Metroid's loss to Majora's Mask later on in this round that really stung. Early on in this poll, Metroid Prime was flying high and really looked like it would ride to a rather simple 52-48 win. It built up a 400 vote lead an hour in, and though it slowed down a little bit after that, Prime was still able to go up a little bit more overnight. The lead would ultimately peak at 455 before both games started going 50-50. As we got closer and closer to the dead zone, Skyrim began to slowly pick up steam. It would get the lead below 300 just before 6 am, and we know how Metroid Prime is during the morning and day vote. True to form, Metroid completely fell apart once the morning vote hit. There was minor resistance, but Skyrim was able to catch up at 8:50 am. There was a stall by Prime once this happened, but it was ultimately helpless to stop Skyrim from passing it by as we got farther and farther into the day vote. There was a lot of stalling by Prime even as Skyrim slowly trended upwards, and any hope Prime had of coming back faded when the ASV decidedly favored Skyrim. Skyrim would end things with a 734 vote win, which makes for a respectable 1200 vote turnaround. Without the presence of rallies and only relying on trends, that's pretty impressive. Granted it meant Skyrim was doomed against Mario 64, but we all knew that anyway. For Metroid Prime, it was the same old story. It got stuck against Wind Waker in round 2 in 2004, the day vote plus Paper Mario caused it to lose in round 1 in 2009, it almost lost to Half-Life 2 in Game of the Decade because of having a day match, it did lose to Fallout 3 for the same reason, and now this. Poor Metroid Prime just cannot catch a break. ### Ctes' Analysis This match was semi-hyped leading up to the contest. While Skyrim was a huge favorite before we began, NostalgiaFAQs and previous rounds including rally spillover of previous rounds pointed towards Metroid Prime having a very good chance today. Truthfully, Metroid Prime started out dominating the match full worse with the use of the late Undertale supporters along with the generally great Nintendo Power Hour. Within 5 minutes, it was 85 votes ahead and it continued with insane vote gains twice more. Then Skyrim cut 9 votes, leading most people to believe that what Metroid Prime had was simply spillover and that Skyrim would slowly come back for an easy win. But when Metroid Prime then increased its lead again with each update, we knew we had a match. The cut seemed to slow Metroid Prime at first, but then it got its game back and went up well above 300 close to 400. The vote difference would stay around this for the next couple of hours for the best part of the match. At first, Metroid Prime struggled to actually get above 400 before barely accomplishing it in a great update only to throw it away again the next. The two would then go back and forward a bit, making you think that spillover was about to end and Skyrim would go strong now, but then Metroid Prime stepped its game up, got above 400 and actually stayed there. With a small bump on the road it got all the way up to 455 even. But then it nosedived back down again giving only one update of an attempt to stay above 400. It stayed right below 400 for a while, until Skyrim took it well below only for Metroid Prime to get above again. Had they been this even at a smaller vote difference people would've gone insane. Metroid Prime went below 400 for a single update more until it seemingly cemented itself above it. It lasted two hours only though, then Skyrim started cutting the lead down for real. It was serious now. It probably has a bit to do with the rally spillover that Metroid Prime took the lead by storm, but I don't think it can be entirely contributed to only that. Not when it took Skyrim this long to fight back for real. The board was still suffering from too many Undertale rally topics right now, but I think what made Metroid Prime lose its hold was the dead hours arriving. It's historically a bad time for Nintendo games and Skyrim is just the kind of game that benefits from Europe being the main source of votes. Skyrim was cutting at a decent pace all the down below a 200 vote lead in Metroid Prime's favor. Then it seemed like America woke up to take the match by storm, when Metroid Prime randomly got a huge lead increase. Skyrim took it all back the next update and kept going. Metroid Prime would put up a great fight trying to maintain a +100 vote lead, which it did manage for a while, but when it won updates, they were never really that big, so they couldn't keep up with the huge cuts Skyrim occasionally made. After a full hour, it lost its +100 vote lead for good and continued falling. Skyrim struggled a bit some updates, but on other updates it cut huge, eventually cutting all the way down to an epic tie with 13300 votes each at the 8:50 mark. Skyrim then took the lead and tried to build something, but it wasn't allowed to. After having the lead for half an hour, Metroid Prime took it back with a 3 vote lead, then a single vote lead in another intense update. This would unfortunately be the final time Metroid Prime had the lead, Skyrim started slow at first, but never truly looked back again, actually managing to achieve a three-digit lead in 45 minutes that it would keep for the rest of the match, except for one 98 vote lead update a while later, but that barely matters. Metroid Prime never stopped cutting in pity attempt to fight back, but the match was essentially over from this point forward. Overall, the match provided a good amount of entertaining that was unfortunately overshadowed by another Undertale rally explosion from the day before. Metroid Prime is a strong force in these contests now and ultimately saw a similar run this contest as it did in Game of the Decade. Beating Half-Life 2 and then moving on to lose to the strongest Bethesda game of the contest. Metroid Prime looked more impressive this time, as it destroyed Half-Life 2 and came closer to winning the Bethesda match this time despite higher votals, but ultimately fell just short again. That said, I don't think Metroid Prime is stronger, but actually pretty much the same. It's the other games that changed. Half-Life 2 surely fell in strength here and its Bethesda opponent was not as strong. Don't misunderstand, I do believe Skyrim is stronger than Fallout 3, but I believe 2010 Fallout 3 is stronger than both are now. It makes sense considering everything we've seen so far in this contest. Skyrim managed to get to the point it was predicted to get despite everything it had against it in rally spillover and NostalgiaFAQs, but it was obvious it wasn't going to stand a single chance against Super Mario 64. That match was going to be painful for Skyrim fans. That said, I fully believe Skyrim to be the strongest game from this decade on this site. Of course, if we do get another Game of the Decade contest, it might struggle with something like Smash 4 or a rallied game, but as of now, it's definitely the strongest before outside forces are counted. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6153&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=103) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Super Mario 64 vs (7)The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess 2015 _source: (3)Super Mario 64 vs (7)The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess 2015 (revid 84394)_ ## Results **Round Three** Wednesday, December 2, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 4 - **Match \#:** 104 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, December 2, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Mario 64 - 56.52% 81 for - 3 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Mario 64 - 50.56% This was one of the more boring matches of round 3. When the most interesting thing to talk about is the match picture, you know a match kind of sucks. Speaking of, holy shit is that Mario 64 picture awful. One of the worst representations of that game we'll ever see. When you pair that with Twilight Princess giving you perhaps the most badass Link picture imaginable, plus rally spillover, it's no surprise that this match was 55-45 early. But Mario was able to recover pretty well after that, and the match pretty much stayed at 57-43 the entire way through. It was Zelda's second loss in a row, a decent tuneup for Mario, and more proof that even when Link loses against Mario, he always seems to look better. I want to point out that this was the only direct Mario vs Link matchup of this entire contest, and Mario won it. 1-0 RECORD AGAINST LINK, BABY! (Mario RPG totally doesn't count as a Mario game! That is obviously Squaresoft's loss!) ### Ctes' Analysis While it will always be a little bit interesting to see a Mario game beat a Zelda game, there was never really any doubt about this match. First of all, console hierarchy mean a lot more than Nintendo hierarchy. When you think about it, everyone looks really stupid arguing for Super Mario Galaxy \> Super Metroid using the Nintendo hierarchy as an argument. Here's also the hierarchy of the series themselves. Super Mario 64 has been included in discussions about what the strongest Mario game is, even if we after this contest probably can conclude that it isn't, and it's definitely the strongest 3D Mario game by miles. Twilight Princess falls below quite a few other Zelda games in the series by quite a bit, including two 3D Zelda games. The thing is, this is games and not franchises, so a franchise hierarchy just wont always work. I know most people knew this was an easy win for Super Mario 64, but there were apparently also people believing Twilight Princess could win. It's true Mario \> Samus seemed weird considering previous contests, but you can't apply the Nintendo hierarchy theory, Zelda \> Mario \> Metroid, for any case where they meet. It's true that this would be the case on most consoles. In fact, the only exception is probably on the NES, where Super Mario Bros. 3 would have no trouble destroying The Legend of Zelda and Super Mario Bros would beat it too. However, when games from different consoles meet, this stupid hierarchy doesn't necessarily apply. We saw this with Super Metroid \> Super Mario Galaxy, a match the board 8 should be ashamed of getting wrong, and we saw it again today. With all that said, I do think Twilight Princess looks impressive going out. These are not bad numbers. It's strong enough to deserve a permanent spot in these contests. Hopefully next time it'll have a less predictable one. As for Super Mario 64, it should easily beat Skyrim, while it's previous somewhat unpredictable path past the division finals had become very predictable, and it would be a loss for Super Mario 64. Because even if RBY would manage to beat Undertale and run into Super Mario 64, a match that was discussed pre-contest, it would be a powered up RBY in the sense that it had rallying behind it and just took down Undertale, which would surely create a bandwagon. Plus, considering how the Super Mario Bros. 3 match went down, it was pretty clear Super Mario 64 would lose to RBY even if Undertale had never gotten past Mass Effect 3. Despite a predictable path ahead with a downfall to rallies, Super Mario 64 would at least reach a point it was already expected to reach and get further than the other Mario games. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6154&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=104) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs (4)Final Fantasy IX 2015 _source: (1)The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs (4)Final Fantasy IX 2015 (revid 84396)_ ## Results **Round Three** Thursday, December 3, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 5 - **Match \#:** 105 - **Match Date:** Thursday, December 3, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 66.67% 78 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 77.77% This was the second match in a row where Ocarina looked completely off, though at least this time it had an excuse. Seriously, what is that Ocarina picture? It looks like Link is giving oral to some blue thing, not playing a musical instrument. Pair that with Final Fantasy 9 getting the best picture it can possibly get, and you're just begging for an underperformance. This match was in the 65-35 range for the entire match, which is a relative surprise given FF9's day vote. FF9 in general had an absolutely amazing contest, from winning the day vote against Kingdom Hearts to blowout out Okami, to helping show us that Ocarina was completely doomed the second it made the final. There was nothing in the bottom half of the bracket that was going to beat Ocarina, but whatever got to the final from the top half was clearly going to beat it. Ocarina underperforming against FF9 was one of the many warning signs of this. ### Ctes' Analysis As you'd expect, the Ocarina of Time match of round 3 gets to be one of the more boring ones. As I've said before, some games just have to run into the powerhouses in these contests unless you want to go back to removing the strongest entries, but I don't think we can actually do that when we don't have contests on a more regular basis. Final Fantasy IX definitely shouldn't be a game to face that though, because the game surely has some new found strength in recent years, where it seems to have become the cult favorite. I'm honestly not sure why, but fans of the series seems to view it as the best game now. I think perhaps it's a natural consequence of the game first standing in the shadows of its two precedents, Final Fantasy VII in particular, then being completely overshadowed by the great Final Fantasy X, which introduced a ton of new elements and visually completely stole the spotlight. I suppose some people looked back and thought “We forgot about this one. It's really underrated!” and games being underrated for quite a while can sometimes have the opposite follow. Now it's overrated. At least I think so. Perhaps it was a bit underrated, but there's a reason it stood in the shadows. It doesn't reach the highs of VII and X nor is it as unique as VIII. Gameplay wise it's really good, but Final Fantasy is very driven by its stories and characters, both of which departments Final Fantasy IX lacks in. It makes sense Final Fantasy X overshadowed it when Tidus is basically Zidane done right. It's a good game, don't get me wrong, but why does it suddenly If It Were Up to Board 8? It lost in round one five years ago! Anyway, it does have solid contest strength now, so for someone like me who doesn't get why its so popular all of a sudden, it's just exciting to see it in action in these contests. It that sense, it feels kinda wasted going against Ocarina of Time, but at least it provided a highly entertaining first round match. It also got to embarrass Ocarina of Time in the eyes of the average contest follower, though I don't think Ocarina of Time looks too bad today. The Suikoden II match was worse in that regard, but I'm still willing to believe Suikoden II got stronger. If you believe Final Fantasy IX is about equal to Final Fantasy X now, then it's not too bad. This is around what we adjusted Final Fantasy X to get in Ocarina of Time in 2009 and quite a bit below what it's expected to get against it in 2004. Of course, it seemed like Final Fantasy X had fallen quite a bit in strength, which does make Ocarina of Time underperform today. However, parts of what made Final Fantasy X look bad was its SNES opponents clearly being stronger. People might underestimate a bit just how much Final Fantasy IX has grown in these things. Ocarina of Time has fallen a bit, but it's probably only a result of being the defending champion. Its anti-votes is the full cause of it I think, so adjust for those and we have the same strength of the game. Besides, it's not like Ocarina of Time would ever be troubled before the final where it was supposed to have a great match with Chrono Trigger, but would likely face a rally force in Undertale instead now. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6155&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=105) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (14)Donkey Kong Country 2: Diddy's Kong Quest vs (2)Castlevania: Symphony of the Night 2015 _source: (14)Donkey Kong Country 2: Diddy's Kong Quest vs (2)Castlevania: Symphony of the Night 2015 (revid 84397)_ ## Results **Round Three** Thursday, December 3, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 5 - **Match \#:** 106 - **Match Date:** Thursday, December 3, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Castlevania: Symphony of the Night - 56.93% 76 for - 2 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Castlevania: Symphony of the Night - 39.43% SUBTITLE WAR!! PLATFORMER WAR!! I know Symphony of the Night is technically a Metroidvania RPG, but hey. You know how every year in the NCAAs, you see a low seed or two make the Sweet 16, then they play a team from a power conference and usually get waxed? There are exceptions to this, but usually your Florida Gulf Coast Universities and Valparaisos and Richmonds and Bradleys get their asses whipped in round 3. That was this match for Donkey Kong Country 2. It made a really good run in this contest, but folded the second it came across a really strong game as its opponent. And that's fine. It doesn't change how good DKC2 did this season. It helped Donkey Kong shake off a lot of that choker label, plus 38% on Symphony of the Night really isn't that bad. There were some hopes that DKC2 could win this match and it won the board vote, but Symphony started climbing quickly, got this thing above 60% within the hour and never looked back. Symphony of the Night has gotten out of the first round in every contest it's ever been in, but had never gotten past round 2 before this contest. This year, it got to win three matches before finally losing. So overall, this whole match was a feel-good affair, but unfortunately only one game gets to win it all, so everyone else has to lose eventually. ### Ctes' Analysis No one ever doubted that Symphony of the Night would have trouble winning this match, but people expected it to be a whole lot closer than it was judging by the oracle predictions. I suppose when Donkey Kong Country 2 managed to upset two games it made people think that game was a lot stronger than we thought, but what people forgot was that neither Xenoblade Chronicles nor Fire Emblem: Awakening had the strength we thought. Yes, it's the Year of SNES and without that Donkey Kong Country 2 would've lost to both of those games at their current strength fairly easily, but it's not just Year of SNES, it's also that we're NostalgiaFAQs. Those two games are two recent for out site, we just weren't aware of that pre-contest! It might also have been that Symphony of the Night was stronger than people expected it to be. It clearly is stronger now than then, where it struggled to beat Perfect Dark before easily getting disposed of by GoldenEye. It was also a \#11 seed. Although it was a 64-entrant field back then, meaning that a \#11 seed then would be a \#6 seed if the contest had 128 entrants too, it's still a \#2 seed now. Seeds can be misleading, but when a Playstation 1 game suddenly receives a much higher seed, you should know that it probably has gotten stronger. Despite it not being that era which benefit the most by NostalgiaFAQs, it certainly wasn't hurt by it either and it was clear over the course of the first two rounds that this Symphony of the Night is different from the one we used to know. Of course, it's easy to ignore that when Symphony of the Night was already supposed to win this match, but I'm surprised so many didn't. I don't usually brag, but this the only match I won in the oracle, despite getting closer to a perfect prediction in a few others, so I'm going to a little. I was the only user that did not predict Symphony of the Night to do worse than it did, as I predicted it to do 0.1% better than it did. Only eight people had it above 60%. Would you really expect a Donkey Kong game to have improved enough for it to get so close? It's Year of SNES, but it would take an insane boost. I'm sure most people do their oracle picks fairly fast, in particular when you have so many matches in such a short time, but I'm actually really surprised everybody else had Symphony of the Night doing worse than this. I suppose maybe people had a hard time seeing Banjo-Kazooie outperforming Donkey Kong Country 2 considering their platforms and main characters, which makes sense, but it's still ignoring previous results a bit. Symphony of the Night would obviously stand no chance next round, but although it took a really weak half of a division, getting to the top 16 is a really great accomplish for it. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6156&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=106) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past vs (4)Dark Souls 2015 _source: (1)The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past vs (4)Dark Souls 2015 (revid 84398)_ ## Results **Round Three** Friday, December 4, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 6 - **Match \#:** 107 - **Match Date:** Friday, December 4, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: A Link to the Past - 65.68% 78 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zelda: A Link to the Past - 59.20% Dark Souls made a pretty good run this contest, but then it goes and gets 29% on Link to the Past and it makes me wonder if anyone on this site has played any game released after the year 2000. It's not like Dark Souls is even a weak game, because it clearly isn't, but games don't just break 70% by accident in round 3. What in the world happened here? It's not like Dark Souls was ever going to win, but man, round 3 is supposed to be the round where top tier games beat midcarders respectably. This was maximum disrespect if I ever saw it. There is some serious old \> new beatdown stuff going on here, and a game and series of respectable strength was given the ass-whipping of its life instead of being allowed to bow out of this contest with dignity. This put a small speed bump onto the "Zelda is off" road, though really it was only Link to the Past that looked like it was in old form this contest. The other ones were off, which we'll definitely touch upon in the next writeup. There is a definite Zelda fatigue on this site, but Link to the Past is the one game immune from it. Unless it's facing a Zelda game from the Nintendo 64, anyway. ### Ctes' Analysis This was a really solid performance by A Link to the Past. It started out well-above 70%, fell below for the middle of the match, but got above again nearing the end. Something that can probably mostly be contributed to geographical trends. It might have helped A Link to the Past that Majora's Mask had a match going on at the same time, a very exciting one too. Plus, if any of the two in this match benefit from Super Metroid being in the poll, it was definitely A Link to the Past too. However, seeing as A Link to the Past did really well from the get go, I doubt the other match made any noticeable difference. It's just really impressive no matter how you look at it. Dark Souls is obviously not the strongest game there is, but it's very well respected among gamers and it's about as different from A Link to the Past as it gets. I still haven't figured out whether or not I think it's a good thing or a bad thing that A Link to the Past was essentially fed to Ocarina of Time. Sure, it did get to make it to the top 8, which isn't bad, even though A Link to the Past has the strength worthy of semi-final spot and maybe even a spot in the finals. However, the path to that was really boring except for the early surprise spillover attack from Majora's Mask, but that ended up not being a threat at all. What SBAllen wanted was sure for the bracket to not be too Zelda dominant by making the strongest of them run into each other. I don't think that's a bad think either. However, when we have gaming contests as rarely as we do, it's nice to get some good reads on all the top contenders and we didn't get that on A Link to the Past. I hope that whenever next time is, we'll get a Chrono Trigger vs. A Link to the Past rematch because that's one I really want to see today. To have an idea on which side of Chrono Trigger, Final Fantasy VII and RBY this game stands would be nice. As for Dark Souls, this was inevitable, so no shame for it. Always good to see a recent game from a recent series get this far, although it not have any old games in its way really. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6157&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=107) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Super Metroid vs (2)The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 2015 _source: (3)Super Metroid vs (2)The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 2015 (revid 84399)_ ## Results **Round Three** Friday, December 4, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 6 - **Match \#:** 108 - **Match Date:** Friday, December 4, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: Majora's Mask - 56.90% 75 for - 3 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zelda: Majora's Mask - 42.76% I know Undertale's rallying and Undertale in general was the story of this contest, but to me this match was the best match in round 3. Not only did Super Metroid finally get over the Mario hump by demolishing Galaxy in round 2, it was one ASV away from actually beating a Zelda game. And not just any Zelda game, but our Game of the Decade in Majora's Mask. I'm convinced that Super Metroid could have won this match if people didn't want Game of the Decade validated so hard, but I can understand why Majora's Mask was the rooting interest here. The anti-Brawl sentiment and people just loving Game of the Decade in general outweighed rooting for the cool upset. But man this upset would have been awesome, and seeing Super Metroid pull this off just to get pasted by Link to the Past again would have been something else. It would have been a third loss to Link to the Past! At some point I really need to mention how this was the best picture for round 3, too. That might be the most badassed picture Samus or Metroid has ever had, and Majora's Mask had without a doubt its best picture ever. Pretty much everything about this match was top notch, from the background of the games leading up to this, to the pictures, and finally the match itself. At the beginning of the match, Majora's Mask won the board vote, but not by much. This was only a 52-48 style match early, and when Super Metroid started fighting back the second Majora's Mask got a lead of 100, it was on. Super Metroid fought back until Majora stalled and got it to 100 again, but then Metroid went on a rampage to tie it up. The two games then proceeded to be completely even overnight. And by "completely even", I am in no way joking. Super Metroid tied this match at 2:20 am. From that time until the morning vote hit, the lead was never more than 40 votes in either direction and was often far closer than that. Come the morning vote, most people assumed Super Metroid would just collapse. After all, we've seen Samus and her series in action for 13 years. We know how the series behaves when the day vote hits. But in this match, for some miraculous reason, Super Metroid won the morning vote. Majora made a small push to prevent it, but once Samus got going, she took off for the moon. A tie match at 7:50 am turned into Samus building up a lead rather quickly, and it would ultimately peak at 332 later that morning. It was surreal to watch, and seeing Samus beat Link in ANY capacity was insane. Seeing her doing it with the morning vote was even more nuts. When this was going on, people really thought the match was over and started realizing how silly it was for us to see a third Super Metroid vs Link to the Past match. But that dastardly Metroid day vote would rear its ugly head eventually, and the dream would quickly die for Super Metroid. Majora's Mask began to slowly fight back by lunch, and after a very prolonged stall where the lead stayed in the 200s, the ASV showed up and would thoroughly favor Majora's Mask. Super Metroid tried to fight back, but Metroid isn't exactly good at doing that during day votes. Majora's Mask would quickly erase the lead and bury Super Metroid, to the tune of winning by 520. People were mostly happy about this, because people really wanted Game of the Decade validated. Brawl had pissed off this board that much, and thank god for that. Fuck Brawl. It was an anti-climactic finish once things truly got going, but still, it doesn't erase how good this match was. Super Metroid may have lost the ASV and lost the match, but even winning the day vote here was a moral victory. Remember, most people expected this game to get pasted by Galaxy last round. Not only did it thoroughly annihilate a Mario game when everyone expected it to lose, but it was 8 hours and one ASV away from beating a Zelda game. That is mighty impressive given Samus's entire contest history. ### Ctes' Analysis This match was quite possible the single best match of the entire contest. It was not only completely unexpected before the contest began that there would even be a match, it was also unexpected after the past two rounds. I mean, Super Metroid had really impressed the past two rounds, first scoring 80% on a game and then easily taking care of Super Mario Galaxy. That's after looking terrible in previous contests though, even if SFF was involved. Majora's Mask won Game of the Decade, which despite the less strong field is still quite the impressive achievement, and this contest, its performances had been just in line with Game of the Decade x-stats, proving its strength from then was no fluke. I know I've disposed of this theory a lot of times, but again, when does Metroid beat Zelda? Pretty much never. It would be such an obscure thing to see when it's a N64 Zelda, even it's not the biggest one. Then this absolutely intense match happened. It was very close already from the get go up until the freeze. It came pretty unexpected. Majora's Mask was only leading by 34 votes when the freeze happened. It almost doubled that the next update, giving the illusion that Majora's Mask would be winning now, but then it barely gained anything for a couple of updates. It just managed to get slightly above the 100 vote lead before actually being cut. Nothing was decided at this point. Majora's Mask took two serious cuts before gaining a bit again and essentially stalling. About an hour later it had got the same 109 vote lead it first had. Then it started going down and down, further than before, stalled a bit halfway down but continued down to having a 1 vote lead. This was a match would make board 8'ers lose sleep. The next update, we finally saw a lead change. This was it. The Game of the Decade winner was behind to a game it was supposed to be much stronger than. And no shame in this from Majora, it was just Super Metroid proving itself to be near elite. Majora's Mask took the lead back next update, but lost it right away once more. Super Metroid fought like a champ. It was making a slightly boring Zelda dominant division really interesting right now. It struggled actually keeping its lead though. It couldn't really run away. After four updates, Majora's Mask would take it back followed by another exciting 1 vote lead in Majora's favor. Super Metroid swung this to a 1 vote lead in its own favor, then for an update or maybe two, it seemed like it could build, but not really. A few more updates of stalling and then Majora's Mask took the lead back another single update. Super Metroid had the lead once again, but still couldn't do anything with its lead. The match was going back and forth. Super Metroid was ahead most of the updates since the match started having lead changes, but ultimately the match didn't go either way. The next time Majora's Mask took the lead, it actually didn't let go of it, though we did get the first tiebreaker of the match in between its lead updates. It would be the first of quite a few actually. After yet another 1 vote lead in Majora's favor, Super Metroid took the lead for a single update before Majora's Mask kept it for a while, switching their roles. Although three tiebreakers came, Super Metroid didn't get lead back again for two hours. Majora's Mask managed to get a lead of 39 a few times during the two hours it had the lead, but couldn't extend it further than that at any point. Every single update was exciting. The update after the third tiebreaker in that period would be the last of Majora's long leading streak. Super Metroid took back the lead, lost it again, then took it back in a more convincing manner. The lead actually rose all the way to 50 in quite a short time! More than it had been for either side in quite a while, although it then fell again. It feel slowly and steadily down to a lead change, which was the fourth 1 vote lead for Majora's Mask. How come only that had those 1 vote leads anyway. The next update, Super Metroid took the lead by 28 votes and from here, things got crazy. We were 8 hours into the match and it had been incredibly intense the whole way so far. But now Super Metroid started showing that it wasn't just fooling around, giving Majora's Mask a run a bit for it. It was gonna take the match by storm. It would lead the next 8 hours of the math exactly, but it would look like it was gonna take it. It took it no less than four more updates to extend its lead above 100 votes. It made it seem so easy despite them being neck to neck for so long. Despite cuts and no difference updates on the way, it only took 45 minutes more for it to get a 200 vote lead, going way above what Majora's Mask had at any point of the match. Super Metroid would be taken it slowly, but it was going somewhere. It looked like it had taken full control of this match. An hour and 15 minutes later, its lead had exceeded 300 votes. Few matches change that and the ones that do almost all involve rallying. This match had close to none of that. However, it wasn't over despite how it may have seemed. Once Super Metroid went above 300, Majora's Mask had apparently had enough. It wasn't really allowed go go above that. For some updates it hovered slightly above being Majora's Mask cut it below the 300 vote lead again. It would hover around just below the 300 vote lead instead for the next couple of hours, crossing the halfway point in the progress. It's always fun to notice what game would've won a 12 hour match. Seriously, so many matches would've had different outcomes if they were 12 hour matches. Almost exactly two after after falling below its 300 vote lead, Super Metroid took it again. It would only be for one more update though. Majora's Mask started making a real comeback attempt now, after having just stalled for quite a while. It took a bumpy road down to where Super Metroid was only slightly above a 200 vote lead in about an hour. That would leave it winning with plenty of time to spare, though Super Metroid didn't let go that easily. It stalled at that mark for over another full hour before Majora's Mask could finally continue with its comeback attempt. This attempt actually got the job done though. Majora's Mask cut the lead below 200 votes and after staying just below for a few updates, it kept cutting effectively until the lead change. This took it just below one and a half hour. The lead change was quite exciting. Super Metroid had its final lead of the match with just 2 votes and on the next update, Majora's Mask was leading by two votes. Majora's Mask would never lose the lead again, but Super Metroid would struggle two more times. As Majora's Mask went above a 100 vote lead, Super Metroid took it below with a very convincing update, greatly stalling Majora's Mask. Majora's Mask got above the 100 vote lead again, only for the same thing to happen. Well, third time is the charm, at least that's what happened now. Majora's Mask went above the 1000 vote lead yet again and would never really look back. It was moving slowly and steadily upwards for the remaining hours of the match, ending above a 500 vote difference. Something I thought this contest truly lacked was a match that was exciting until the end. A lot of bad things can be said about the 3-way contest we had last time, but it had some very incredible matches like that. This contest didn't really. Super Mario Galaxy 2 vs. Mass Effect, Xenoblade vs. DKC2, Starcraft vs. Mass Effect 2, lots of Undertale matches, Chrono Trigger vs. Melee and this. All fantastic matches, but no excitement near the end. Xenoblade vs. Donkey Kong Country 2 in particular comes close, but it wasn't nail biting near the end, we knew what would happen. This match however was very exciting for 16-17 hours except for perhaps some of the time Super Metroid had a convincing lead. It's insane how long it was so close. Our votals aren't exactly the best they've been, but for the two games to be neck to neck for so long with almost 50000 total votes is still pretty crazy. Super Metroid didn't pull off the miracle run in the end, but at least it had what could be considered an upset in round 2. That said, there is no shame in losing this match, Majora's Mask is legit, and so has Super Metroid showed us it is. It had in the two previous contests jobbed big time to A Link to the Past and it came so terribly close to being able to do that once again. How ironic an end that would've been to such a run. It is the Year of SNES indeed, but Super Metroid has definitely been SFFd more in the past than we thought. This was such an impressive run. I can't wait to see it return to the field again. It's definitely a top 20 game on this site at least, it'd be great to see it fighting some top games around Majora's level. As for Majora's Mask, it was supposed to easily advance to the division finals and struggled big time today, but as I've said, no shame in that, it's actually pretty impressive it pulled this off. One could argue that sharing a poll with A Link to the Past gave Majora's Mask the victory today, but I don't think that has been a big enough factor this contest, unless we're talking about rally factor, for it to have made a difference. Especially because A Link to the Past has quite a few things in common with Super Metroid. That's more clear now than ever from previous contests. It might have mattered a little bit, but I doubt it's enough. Also, this proves that we should all nominate Super Mario Kart next contest, because that game fought neck to neck with Super Metroid in 2009, so it's probably really legit. It is a contender for the strongest snubbed game of the contest. Despite the last couple of hours not being very exciting, I really do think this was the actual best match of the contest. It was exciting for so long and it came quite unexpected in the middle of some boring matches. Unlike some other close matches, both games seemed like they would win for sure at some point during the best, surprising us a few times. Another thing is that this match had no rally controversy, board explosion, trolls from inside or outside board 8, spillover on other matches, or anything bad. It was just a legit good match between two good games fighting with their contest strengths and it was very refreshing. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6158&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=108) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (9)Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars vs (13)Chrono Cross 2015 _source: (9)Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars vs (13)Chrono Cross 2015 (revid 84400)_ ## Results **Round Three** Saturday, December 5, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 7 - **Match \#:** 109 - **Match Date:** Saturday, December 5, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Mario RPG - 56.35% 74 for - 2 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Mario RPG - 14.06% Mario RPG was never going to lose this match regardless of whether it was against Chrono Cross, World of Warcraft, or San Andreas. The only thing here that would be entertaining would be Mario RPG's percentage bleed overnight, and every time it happens I wonder how strong the game would be were it ever released in Europe. For this match, the percentage bleed actually wasn't all that bad. Mario RPG peaked at around 64%, then fell below 60% before finishing at 61%. That's rather consistent given the game in question here, and on the flip side it's a pretty impressive result for Chrono Cross. 39.26% on Mario RPG when the game would eventually make the semifinal is pretty good. Don't forget that Chrono Cross got 32.9% on eventual contest winner Majora's Mask during Game of the Decade. I replayed Chrono Cross not too long ago, and while a ton of that game is a jumbled mess, it does deserve a lot of the respect it gets. I think the biggest problem it has isn't only people comparing it to Chrono Trigger, even though that's a fair comparison to make. It's that all of the characters in Chrono Cross absolutely fucking suck, and there are way too many of them. And I don't just mean the playable characters, either. ALL of the characters suck. Every single one of them. There are no good characters in Crono Cross. That's not a good thing given how attached people got to the cast of Chrono Trigger. But that aside, the game does almost everything else well. Almost. Here's a rather accurate review for it, if you're interested. It's long, but it's definitely worth a read if you're as fan of the game: ### Ctes' Analysis This match was pretty obvious all things considered, but Super Mario RPG managed to exceed out expectations quite a bit in a progress. I guess we did have a few people believing in Chrono Cross, because its scores the previous two rounds would've put it quite a bit above Super Mario RPG. It's just that it was really obvious how World of Warcraft and the Grand Theft Auto franchise had fallen. Chrono Cross had just the right bracket placement to make a great run, but despite probably being a bit less hated today, the game is still not very strong. You would think it had gained some momentum beating the games it did, but it's probably nothing compared to the momentum Super Mario RPG got from easily beating the \#1 seed. Look at the prediction percentage. Nobody outside of board 8 really expected Super Mario RPG to get to the division finals. It was our favorite, but I'm sure almost every casual had Grand Theft Auto V getting there. I suppose this confirms Grand Theft Auto V is the strongest game from that franchise. It did better on Super Mario RPG than the game that beat San Andreas. However, I'm willing to believe anti-votes make the gap seem bigger than it is. I might pick Chrono Cross against Grand Theft Auto V after this. That franchise has enough anti-votes for me to believe it. It would likely be a good match though. Chrono Cross disappointed a bit today, but overall had a very great run. Besides, I think most of the focus today was praising Super Mario RPG. Close to nobody expected this, but people were starting to consider Super Mario RPG's chances of pulling the upset next round, not that Resident Evil 4 had looked pretty bad. I don't think many considered it likely, especially due to the Paper Mario match in round 1, but no one considered it impossible anymore. It was also likely enough that Super Mario RPG just had opponents with enough anti-votes to make it look really good. There might be a hierarchy for that thing, but Chrono Cross is surely still a victim of that, it will always be. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6159&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=109) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (6)Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty vs (2)Resident Evil 4 2015 _source: (6)Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty vs (2)Resident Evil 4 2015 (revid 84401)_ ## Results **Round Three** Saturday, December 5, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 7 - **Match \#:** 110 - **Match Date:** Saturday, December 5, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Resident Evil 4 - 55.59% 71 for - 5 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Resident Evil 4 - 35.01% Given how bad the Metal Gear Solid series looked this contest, this was a horrible result for Resident Evil 4. Mario RPG was not only tearing it up in the top half of this division, but Resident Evil 4 was looking rather weak in the bottom half. Even the match itself was rather benign, as it stayed in the 55-45 range pretty much all day. This match itself was never going to be in doubt as RE4 was always going to win comfortably, but the law of unintended consequences often comes into play in these contests. Take your pick of the more impressive contest path through three rounds: -54.43% on Oblivion, 57.2% on Grand Theft Auto 5, 60.74% on Chrono Cross -58.87% on Paper Mario, 58.11% on New Vegas, 54.44% on Metal Gear Solid 2 It doesn't take much to figure out that the top option is more impressive, and when you take the 2009 stats into account it's even worse for RE4. It was expected to get 59% in this match. MGS was much weaker this year, and RE4 only got 54.44%. It became very obvious very quickly that Mario RPG was going to win this division, though for whatever reason most people stayed in denial. No, really, most people in the oracle still picked Resident Evil 4 in that match. "Whoops." ### Ctes' Analysis This is one of the few Metal Gear Solid matches where I'd say the Metal Gear Solid game didn't disappoint. However, that's only because Resident Evil 4 disappointed correspondingly. We just hadn't had complete information that Resident Evil 4 had dropped yet, because the Paper Mario match seemed legit and why would Paper Mario drop? Fallout: New Vegas being somewhat strong on the top of Fallout 4 releasing wouldn't be too weird, and BioShock Infinite having strength seemed very possible after BioShock's great round 2 performance. All in all, you could explain every result Resident Evil 4 had up until now, including this match. The same actually goes for Metal Gear Solid 2. The Witcher 3 has potential even though it's recent, it's hard to determine just how strong that should be. And Resident Evil had REmake being pretty recent. It was entirely possible that Metal Gear Solid 2 hadn't disappointed and this was a legit result. That's based on this part of the bracket alone though. With the performances the rest of the Metal Gear Solid series put up this contest, you know that Metal Gear Solid 2 is weaker too, it makes no sense for it to have avoided the drop. So it doesn't take much brain to figure out that this result happened because Resident Evil 4 dropped as well. Both are Playstation 2 games, a console which outside of I think Okami, is one that this contest hasn't been kind too. Both are even shooters as well, another thing RPGFAQs aren't too huge about. Of course, Resident Evil 4 dropped as well. That's coming from someone who finds Resident Evil 4 to be a top 10, maybe even top 5 game. It's fantastic, but unfortunately, not a game NostalgiaFAQs favors. The question was now whether or not Resident Evil 4 could still win the division. Considering the round 1 result against Paper Mario, Resident Evil 4 beating Super Mario RPG was still the popular choice. The match would obviously be close, but it should happen all things considered. However, considering that Resident Evil 4 couldn't put Metal Gear Solid 2 below 45%, it was looking very unlikely that it could compete with whatever game escaped the last division. The more popular Metal Gear Solid games than Sons of Liberty were down there, and with this result, Resident Evil 4 shouldn't be able to beat them. Not to mention that Shadow of the Colossus and even Mass Effect 2 winning the division wasn't out of the question yet. That said, despite requiring a weak division to do it, making the top 8 would not be a bad achievement for Resident Evil 4 at all, because that's how far it got in Game of the Decade and it's definitely not a top 8 game on this site. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6160&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=110) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Metal Gear Solid vs (5)Shadow of the Colossus 2015 _source: (1)Metal Gear Solid vs (5)Shadow of the Colossus 2015 (revid 84403)_ ## Results **Round Three** Sunday, December 6, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 8 - **Match \#:** 111 - **Match Date:** Sunday, December 6, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Metal Gear Solid - 53.77% 70 for - 6 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Metal Gear Solid - 39.29% To say I was scared Metal Gear Solid might lose this match would be an understatement. Not only did I have to watch that absolute piece of utter garbage beat up the MGS series in Game of the Decade before MGS3 backdoored its way into a win, then I had to watch Shadow of the Garbage Controls look better than MGS1 through two rounds of this contest. Thankfully Shadow of the Pretentious Douchebag Fanbase got its ass absolutely handed to it for 24 solid hours and never once threatened to actually win this match. Sure 46% is a decent number, but if there was any real justice in this world the game would have eaten the new record for being on the ass end of the largest contest blowout ever. That game is pure trash and has some of the worst fans in the history of gaming, so seeing it lose is always a net gain for any contest and the planet as a whole. Shadow of the Awful Handling getting kicked out of this contest by a vastly superior game was fun to watch, even if the percentage was about 46% closer than it should have been. MGS1 looked like ass for two rounds and really looked as if it could lose this match, but it got the job done. Not only that, but this match proved that EarthBound is stronger than Red Dead Redemption, which is two pieces of gamer justice for the price of one match. Fuck Shadow of the I'm Not Art, and hopefully The Last Guardian never gets released and all of Team Ico gets fired for releasing such bottom-feeder sludge onto the world. Thank you based Metal Gear Solid for having one final mission in you. ### Ctes' Analysis This match is basically the reason as to why Shadow of the Colossus had the bracket placement it had. Game of the Decade was highlighted by Shadow of the Colossus, SotC, Star of the Contest. Despite huge picture disadvantaged and looking destined to lose after round 1, it beat Metal Gear Solid 2 in one heck of a close match. The picture disadvantage back then was probably evened out by the fact that it was a day match. It then rode the bandwagon and beat Metal Gear Solid 4 in the following match. Note that MGS4 was stronger than MGS2 back then. It ultimately lost to Metal Gear Solid 3 in one heck of a match, where its bandwagon could've definitely carried it to victory had it not finally faced Metal Gear Solid in a night match. A similar run was without a doubt intended to make possible here. It was just never going to happen though. Despite pulling off that amazing run back then, it was two significantly weaker Metal Gear Solid games it faced. This is the original Playstation game. It might not be the favorite of many, but it definitely has a higher playrate and undoubtfully has the least amount of haters of the series by large margins. The Metal Gear Solid series had fallen a bit this contest, but even though it has surely fallen less, this would still take a lot of Shadow of the Colossus. Another reason why Shadow of the Colossus was not winning this is that it's a full day match instead of a 12-hour day match. Also, I know they didn't look good last round, but the two Metal Gear Solid games having matches at the same time definitely helps Metal Gear Solid as well. It was just up yesterday too if that matters. I understand why SBAllen would set this up, but Shadow of the Colossus just ends feels incredibly wasted in this bracket slot. After its miracle run last time where it proved itself to be completely legit, you'd really want to see what it was capable of by making it face something with actual strength other than Metal Gear Solid games, but we were snubbed and got an obvious match. Sure, this is a close match, but when Shadow of the Colossus fought neck to neck with MGS2 and MGS4 then obviously it would lose to the original. Not sure if the bandwagon was expected to exist after five years, which would make no sense, or the original Metal Gear Solid was just assumed to be weaker for whatever reason. Also no, I don't believe it to be a coincidence, Allen knows what he's doing when making the bracket, which we should be grateful for, he's just not exactly a contest predicting expert himself. He knows some stuff, but very often makes some dumb casual picks. With all that said, it's not like neither game is looking bad here. Shadow of the Colossus at least proved that its miracle run from 2010 was no fluke, the game really is legit. Not a near elite, but a mid to somewhat high midcarder, which isn't bad for a Playstation 2 game not connected to a preexisting franchise. Metal Gear Solid looks fine too. However, up until now it had looked to be a clear favorite if it did meet Metal Gear Solid 3 in the division finals. Now it's not that Metal Gear Solid disappointed today, it's just that Metal Gear Solid 3 somehow managed to look really good today. Metal Gear Solid would not have a free ticket to the semi-finals, let alone to the quarter-finals, that was for sure. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6161&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=111) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater vs (2)Mass Effect 2 2015 _source: (3)Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater vs (2)Mass Effect 2 2015 (revid 84404)_ ## Results **Round Three** Sunday, December 6, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 8 - **Match \#:** 112 - **Match Date:** Sunday, December 6, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Metal Gear Solid 3 - 50.86% 51 for - 25 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Metal Gear Solid 3 - 28.59% Round 3 ended with a rather unexpected blowout, so much so that one could easily call this the best match the entire Metal Gear Solid series had all contest. Oracle opinions were virtually 50-50 on this match, and everyone who picked MGS3 to win undershot the percentage by quite a bit. People definitely noticed Mass Effect 2's impressive run coupled with MGS looking less than stellar. So MGS3 laying a 61-39 beating on Mass Effect 2 was a pretty big surprise for most people, and it gave the Mass Effect series a very unceremonious exit from this contest. It also clued us in on how the big inter-series showdown would go between MGS1 and MGS3. A lot of people blamed my Mass Effect 2 picture because they're babies (notice how it's always the people who never actually contribute anything to this site that are the first to whine and bitch about those who do). The picture looks fine, and shows Harbinger in all of his badassery. If you don't like it, try actually getting off your lazy asses and submitting a better image. That's the problem with society these days, everyone wants to bitch and moan but no one wants to do any work. This is how a complete idiot like Bernie Sanders got popular. No really, the guy is legitimately a moron who is running on a platform of GIVE EVERYONE FREE STUFF without knowing basic economic principles like collateral: . That guy being popular is such a fucking joke, and anyone who believes in him is exactly the problem with this country. Get off my lawn and pull yourself up by your bootstraps you darn younguns! =p The real reason MGS3 did so well is it got one of the best possible match pictures it could ever get. Only Big Boss's salute is better. Naturally, the game stomped. Don't forget that Big Boss is arguably the picture factor in these contests. This match put a bow on a rather uneventful round 3. Lots of predictable matches with games making cute runs getting booted, but that happens in any seeded tournament and is a necessary evil. Not that there weren't good matches, but most were of the Symphony of the Night \> Donkey Kong Country 2 variety. ### Ctes' Analysis This match makes so little sense to me, even now. I mean, it was never a certainty that Mass Effect 2 would win this match, it was probably never even the favorite, but it looked in such a good position to take it after last round and you know… everything we've seen so far in this contest. Mass Effect hasn't done that well, but hasn't looked bad either. Mass Effect 3 looks a bit pathetic not being able to hold that big lead in the last quarter of the match, but people have very mixed feelings about that game. And yes, I know it ends up second in the x-stats, but jokes aside, it didn't do well. The first and the second looked great though. Mass Effect won a match against a very well-received Mario game and did great against a very well-received Smash game. It's not bad! Mass Effect 2 looked like a king beating Starcraft in a small rally fight, a match which made Metal Gear Solid 3 look like a joke against BioShock. It's also the most popular Mass Effect game in general, it'd make sense for that to transfer to contest strength. I guess we learned that BioShock has a lot of strength, but seriously, Metal Gear Solid 3 and you know, Metal Gear Solid as whole has looked like garbage this contest. Every single one of the games. Like, Metal Gear Solid 4 lost to Kingdom Hearts II. No shame in that, but the numbers made it look pathetic. Dark Souls is appreciated a lot, but a Metal Gear Solid game has no business losing to it. Metal Gear Solid 2 looked somewhat fine but only until Resident Evil 4 gets trashed next round. Metal Gear Solid allowed Earthbound closer than it should have, Year of SNES or not, that's not something this series should allow itself to do. Then Metal Gear Solid 3 probably looked the worst of all, relatively of course, but still. This game was debated as perhaps being the strongest. Then it allows a Japanese exclusive to break 30% on it. It shouldn't matter that said game has a prequel released outside of Japan, it's still super niche, and Smash appearance helps a lot, but Mother 3 should not have broken 30%. As I just said, Metal Gear Solid 3 followed up by allowing BioShock to almost beat it. Mass Effect 2 trashed Virtue's Last Reward into the group and took down a rallied Starcraft that had just annihilated Destiny. That's freakin' imprssive. We can try to make this look a bit less unfair. Smash appearance does help a lot, we know. Metal Gear Solid 3 and Mother 3 have about nothing in common whatsoever, so in that sense, Mother 3 is the worst kind of opponent for Metal Gear Solid 3, it's just so darn weak that it doesn't matter. BioShock did look legit in Game of the Decade as well and after all, it was being supported quite a lot by both Starcraft and Mass Effect fans. Also, Mass Effect 2 trashed Virtue's Last Reward quite a lot, but that game should be a contender for the absolute weakest. Starcraft was legit in 2004, but it's a PC game, we know those are weak here. Yet, this result still makes so little sense to me given everything we've seen. It's like Metal Gear Solid just finally decided it was tired of being humiliated and stepped up, it looks so darn good in this match. Mass Effect 2 had rally powers, but that never even mattered. People would see Metal Gear Solid 3 stomping and just give up. A few people in my Last Man Standing contest picked Metal Gear Solid today including winner DpOblivion and I guarantee you they weren't thinking they picked in the closer match. This was absolutely crazy. After Mass Effect having looked really great for a while, in character contests too, it just flops completely today. Would you have thought BioShock would beat Mass Effect 2 easily? I know I wouldn't, but that seems clear as the day now. Sure, it probably helps having two Metal Gear Solid games in the poll together, but it doesn't excuse this, Mass Effect 2 can't excuse this performance. You can explain the performance though. It seems clear now that Starcraft was a lot weaker than we thought and BioShock a lot stronger. What I explained about Mother 3 being the worst possible opponent for Metal Gear Solid 3 is probably true as well, especially considering it also explains Earthbound's great performance against Metal Gear Solid a bit. But still, Mass Effect 2 just didn't meet expectations here. It's still fighting a weakened Metal Gear Solid franchise. And I guess it just wasn't the strongest game of its own series after all. It's the fan favorite, but I don't think a good argument can be made for Mass Effect 2 against its prequel. The first of them is clearly stronger on this site. This was the match by far the most people expected Mass Effect 2 to bow out in, but not in this fashion, not after everything we've seen. Considering everything else that franchise showed, it was a bit hard to confirm at this point, but at least on the outside, Metal Gear Solid 3 redeemed the series a bit today. The long awaited. Though a great deal of this can and should be contributed to Mass Effect 2 disappointing, this was a huge win, Metal Gear Solid 3 deserves a lot of credit. It's easily my favorite game of the franchise too, so it's great to see. Metal Gear Solid was still considered the favorite going into the division finals, but its supporters definitely at least lost some confidence after how Metal Gear Solid 3 did today. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6162&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=112) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Chrono Trigger vs (3)Super Smash Bros. Melee 2015 _source: (1)Chrono Trigger vs (3)Super Smash Bros. Melee 2015 (revid 84405)_ ## Results **Round Four** Monday, December 7, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 1 - **Match \#:** 113 - **Match Date:** Monday, December 7, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Smash Bros. Melee - 40.80% 1 for - 75 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Smash Bros. Melee - 19.19% For about half an hour, this looked very much like the Chrono Trigger we saw in the first three rounds. It was at 60% and rolling right along, and given the first hour is Melee's best time, the match might have gotten rather ugly by the end. Chrono Trigger getting over 60% on Melee would have definitely put it in contention to win this contest, because not many games are able to do that. In fact I'm willing to bet there are less than five. Chrono Trigger, Ocarina, Link to the Past, and Pokemon RBY could do it. I can't think of any others offhand. Oh and 30 minutes into the match against FFX, Chrono Trigger had 67.68%. Here, it had 60.33%. The debate is over. Melee would thoroughly annihilate Final Fantasy X. But unlike Final Fantasy X, Melee was not about to just roll over and die quietly while Chrono Trigger stomped over this contest. r/smashbros changed the entire course of this match, and really the entire course of this contest, with one rally thread. The thread got to the top of the subreddit really fast, too, and the effects were felt immediately. Over the next 20 minutes, Melee stalled the match as the rally gained traction. Then once it really got going, Chrono Trigger just got its shit kicked in. An 800 vote lead disappeared in just over an hour, and it's not like Chrono Trigger wasn't kicking ass and putting good updates out there. Smash was just that much better. There was no resistance once Smash caught up, either, and it just spent the rest of the overnight building up a 650 vote lead. But Chrono Trigger was not done yet, as it was able to take advantage of the dead zone to start pushing back. It was able to shave away the 650 vote lead down to 400 just before the morning vote started. One would assume Melee would win the morning vote and bry Chrono Trigger here given the years-long history of trends these two games have, but miraculously the morning vote also favored Chrono Trigger. It managed to keep pushing and stalling, and it got the lead all the way down to below 300. But the story of this match was rallying, in that Melee had rallies going for it while Chrono Trigger had nothing outside of Nick's Facebook group. And while Nick's group having 28000 members was good and all, that was the only external source Chrono Trigger had to draw votes from. Melee had Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, smashboards, and small fan sites all on its side. Chrono Trigger's biggest site to rally from, ironically enough, is GameFAQs. Chrono Trigger's major push (other than the first 30 minutes of the poll) to win this match was the dead zone and morning vote, but Melee was able to easily counter it with its social media presence. Reddit got going, pros started tweeting every time Melee was threatened, and Chrono Trigger was simply unable to match the armada of social media being on Melee's side. Melee would slowly push forward and build up a lead of 1100. Chrono Trigger would make one final gasp during the evening, and for a time it was actually meeting the comeback quota and making a real push. But Melee's fans noticed this, some more pros tweeted, and that was that. At 7 pm, with 5 hours to go in the poll, Melee had a lead of 931 votes. Chrono Trigger got it down to 728 an hour later, and with more of a bandwagon it really might have made a push to win, but Melee's social media presence quickly noticed this and puts boots to asses. Chrono Trigger's last effort was snuffed out, and Melee would go on to win one hell of a match by 1109 votes. During and after this match, Board 8 proved how idiotic its stance on rallying was, and how loaded with double standards this place is. The vast majority of the board not only wanted to see Chrono Trigger win this match, but they wanted it to win this entire contest. I agree it would have been an amazing story, and I am perfectly okay with people rooting for their favorites (even if it's Shadow of the Colossus, you can cheer or boo anything you want). My issue comes with people picking and choosing which rallies are psychologically allowed based on rooting interest. Everyone was all buttmad over Melee rallying to win this match, and they deemed it "unfair" because it "reversed the natural result of the match". Let's start with this "natural result" nonsense. So long as everything is done within the rules in sports, only one stat matters: scoreboard. Deion Sanders pointed right at it when the Chargers started trying to talk shit as the 49ers were whipping their asses. The "natural result" of this match was Melee 36195, Chrono Trigger 35806. There is no "the natural result of this match was changed". I guarantee you if Chrono Trigger could rally worth a fuck and had won this match, the same people whining about Melee's rallying would have supported Chrono Trigger's rally. That brings me to my other point. THE SAME PEOPLE WHINING ABOUT MELEE'S RALLY DURING THIS MATCH SUPPORTED MELEE'S RALLY AGAINST UNDERTALE. That right there was the dumbest thing Board 8 did during this entire contest, for very obvious reasons. Not only are you picking and choosing rallies, you're literally changing your mind on the same game based on its opponent. That is absolute garbage and is more transparent than the invisible man. Everyone was despondent about Chrono Trigger losing, and while people didn't blame Melee the game, they were just livid over the rally. The same rally they would turn around and support in the semifinal. Good job, Board 8. You support all rallies or you support none of them. Period. Picking and choosing based on rooting interest is intellectual dishonesty. Picking and choosing because of a psychologically predetermined "natural result that you feel would have happened normally", that you can't even prove, is just stupid. How do you know what a natural result would have been? You don't. The only natural result that ever matters is the final vote total. That's it. You don't get to decide based on assumptions, you get to look at the actual score. Lastly, can we knock off the bullshit about how outside rallies ruin our contests, as if they haven't been here since 2002? If you want to blame something for rallies, blame the site itself for treating its users like garbage for the better part of 20 years and chasing most of the regulars away. It's drastically reduced our natural vote totals, and people only come here when googling a game and getting directly linked to a guide or whatever. But the actual site? Shit. You cannot routinely slap your fans in the face and expect them to stick around. Adults want to be treated like adults, and as such, they've all moved on to reddit, social media, youtube, and so forth. So the rallies that have always been there now have a huge effect, because they drop in mid-2000s level vote totals into 2015 matches. Of course the outside will have a huge effect, and I'm happy for it. GameFAQs regularly getting its shit pushed in for treating its users like garbage is a net positive for the internet, and hopefully this continues happening every contest. People need to be exposed to other, better sites where the users are treated like actual adult human beings. The more people realize how good sites like reddit are, the more GameFAQs will realize that they need to stop with the garbage-ass way it treats its users. There's a certain dictionary site that was autoflagged here for years (because GameFAQs loves to coddle people in a little bubble, shield them from the real world and treat them like 13 year-olds, like good little politically correct liberals). Go look up GameFAQs Moderator on that site. There is a reason our polls get no votes and everyone moved on to other sites. Back to rallies. They've always been there, but now they matter a lot more because we not only have no regulars, but our poll numbers are in the tank. Let me pull up a round 1 match from 2009, featuring a game that was very much rallied but still lost: The Oregon Trail scored 25220 votes in that match, got rallied, and was still blown out. The poll scored 117749 votes. That number is unheard of naturally now, and that same exact rally in 2015 would look very different. So don't blame reddit, tumblr, or whatever else for our contests being a lot easier to influence now. Blame GameFAQs. The site you all love so much has gradually and assuredly failed you, and with each new contest it becomes more and more apparent. By 2020, I'm sure our regular Poll of the Day will struggle to break 10,000 votes. But don't try saying rallies are some new thing, because it's flat-out not true. "But Mario's rally ruined the natural result!" Scoreboard. Check it. Oh, and Melee is a better game than Chrono Trigger. I love Chrono Trigger, but the right game won this match. ### Ctes' Analysis I hate to complain about contests and all, but damn I would like if I said this result didn't make me sad. This match is the most depressing contest result of all contests to me. In the blink of an eye what I was enjoying the most about the contest was screwed over completely and out of nowhere. It wasn't even by nice and passionate fans, at least most of them were being were arrogant about rallying their e-sport to victory. It felt awful to see them gloat about beating not only one of my absolute favorite games, but also the game I was most exciting about having in the late stages of the contest. I was so hyped about seeing Chrono Trigger against at least Final Fantasy VII. Especially after last round. It looked ready to dethrone Ocarina of Time and it was something everyone could get behind, since its strength pretty much purely came from inside GameFAQs. A 20 year game suddenly just being much more than legit, suddenly seeming like it could swallow any opponent whole without outside forces. I really wanted to see that, almost everyone really wanted to see that, but then a game that is already really strong, but Chrono Trigger somehow would've run over as well rallied like crazy. The dream shattered today. I wasn't being whiny, I wasn't being rude to anyone, I was just so sad. One could argue that the match itself was good because it was close for so long, but I really don't think it was. Chrono Trigger held up like a king, but it was pretty clear how much rally power Melee had, it always seemed like just a matter of time before Melee would take over completely. Every time Chrono Trigger was coming back, someone just rallied a bit more with little effort and then Melee dominated. Anybody believing in Chrono Trigger after a few hours was just not paying attention to the rallies, only the votals. Chrono Trigger opening the match looking like the beast we had seen in the previous rounds. It was quite shortlived, but you know how amazing Melee's board vote is? How insane it tends to look in the opening minutes? Well, Chrono Trigger held it down in a very convincing manner. After slowly going up to a +100 vote increase during the first five minutes where Melee is a beast, it completely ran away for some updates. This was even still during a good time for Melee. Chrono Trigger was running away during Melee's best time, it seemed like sooner or later, it would bury Melee completely. However, half an hour in it kinda slowed down. The first big warning sign. Chrono Trigger had just gotten above 60%, showing what a beast it is on pure GameFAQs strength, but it stopped and feel below again as Melee starting stalling. After stalling for about 20 minutes, Melee went crazy. Chrono Trigger got about the same votes per update, but Melee got huge boosts and started cutting like crazy. It took it no time to shred Chrono Trigger's crazy lead. After just over 2 hours of the match, Melee took the lead. Ultimately, this would be the only lead change in the match. I think anyone that paid attention to the rallies knew that the match was over at this point, but Chrono Trigger fought like a king and that shouldn't go unnoticed. Once Melee took the lead, it slowed down a bit. It won updates, but didn't have quite as ridiculous updates as before. It would continue like this and raise its lead to about where Chrono Trigger peaked, just over 600, then Chrono Trigger started making its first attempt and definitely a good one too. It cut the lead by about 200 in just over an hour with plenty of time to spare. This looked really great, but as you would expect, the Melee fanboys took notice and it became a stallfest. The reason why Melee rallies wasn't as strong as before was because this time it was in the lead, which causes a lot smaller amount of people to care. It's also part of the reason as to why Undertale was so hard to rally against with its come from behind victories. With lots of updates won by both games, Chrono Trigger actually managed to cut the lead down to below 300 votes doing the dead hours. An impressive performance, but then Melee just went on a rampage again. It answered with another strong rally and quickly shot the lead up above 600 votes again. Yeah for some reason, 600 was when Melee felt safe early on. Chrono Trigger didn't stop fighting, not a single bit. It's pure GameFAQs strength was insane, but it was so easier for Melee ralliers to respond to it. They outnumbered GameFAQs by far. In the previous three matches, Nick had rallied on his Facebook page, and up until this match, we didn't really know how big of an impact that had. It seemed clear here. Nick, being the huge Chrono Trigger fan that he is, made several posts on his Facebook page. Everytime he did, Chrono Trigger would get a small boost, but it was very easily made pointless by Melee rallies. After a while, the boosts became smaller and Nick had other things to do, it really couldn't be helped. Chrono Trigger is a huge game, so people figured it must have fans somewhere out there. Well, it's an old game, it's a community for Chrono Trigger would be anything but active. Turns out the active place its most beloved on is… GameFAQs. What do you know! That obviously didn't help. Chrono Trigger's fate was sealed. It never stopped fighting like the king it is here, but Melee fans took no chances at all, so it lose by just more than 1000 votes in the end. You remember how Melee fans even rallied against GSC when it was clearly never going to lose the match, there's no stopping them. And I guess we'll never learn where they were against Kingdom Hearts II. Chrono Trigger would end up having more than 49%, as the match had very high votals. Thus, due to Melee giving Undertale its final challenge in the semi-finals, Chrono Trigger ends up looking great in the x-stats. Something to appreciate I suppose. For fans of Chrono Trigger and fans of contest matches without strong outside forces, this was probably the biggest bummer ever. The the joy and excitement we got from Chrono Trigger destroying Up Your Arsenal, Dragon Quest VIII and even freakin' Final Fantasy X would disappear in an instant. However, having absolutely all odds against it, Chrono Trigger looked like a king going out. It's a shame it was this early, but damn was it impressive once again today. And we got to see that Chrono Trigger would've gotten a fair bit above 60% too during the opening match. That's super impressive. It's a shame we never got to Chrono Trigger fight against the biggest games on the site such as Ocarina of Time, A Link to the Past and Final Fantasy VII because its performances so far shows that it's more than ready to take them down. I think everyone can agree that those matches would've been nice to get. As for Melee, well, another contender for the damn throne just appeared seemingly out of nowhere, although we did get a hint in the GSC match that no one paid attention to. Undertale, RBY, Ocarina of Time and now Melee. I think those were the games people could justify claiming to believe would win at this point. If RBY failed to stop Undertale tomorrow, Melee would likely be the final chance to stop it. Some Zelda fans had hope, but there was just no way Undertale would ever lose in the final against the defending champion. However, some Zelda fans also had redeemed hope because of how Zelda had been able to lay the biggest SFF hammer on Melee in the past and now Melee was in a position where it could perhaps stop Undertale, so Ocarina of Time would meet Melee in the final instead. Optimistic? Definitely, but you could see where they were coming from. It might've been spoken of before, but I think this is the first time Undertale got a significant boost from “bad results”. By this I mean that occasionally some result would happen where people would be like “screw this contest”. For some reason, that helps Undertale. Why? Because that sentence was usually followed up by “might as well just let Undertale win now”. So Undertale slowly got supporters that viewed it as a joke too. They wouldn't rally for it of course, but every vote counts. It's sorta sad. I'm not saying this counts as every supporters Undertale got in the late rounds of course, but it happened and this was probably the first match where it'd be a large amount due to how beloved Chrono Trigger is here and also due to how it was considered a possible winner. Undertale vs. RBY was quite the hyped match right now, but another one would now be Melee vs. whoever won that match. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6163&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=113) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Final Fantasy VI vs (2)Final Fantasy VII 2015 _source: (1)Final Fantasy VI vs (2)Final Fantasy VII 2015 (revid 84406)_ ## Results **Round Four** Monday, December 7, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 2 - **Match \#:** 114 - **Match Date:** Monday, December 7, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Final Fantasy VII - 56.40% 74 for - 2 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Final Fantasy VII - 56.90% Pre-contest, this poll got thrown all over the place, and a lot of hype for a potential FF6 \> FF7 upset was thrown around because of it: Early on in this poll, that upset was in striking distance. Final Fantasy 7 had a slim lead early, and Final Fantasy 6 was pushing back rather well. It was a close 53-47 affair for 10 minutes, but it was fool's gold before long. FF6 had simply won the board vote, and FF7 was just doing its usual thing of playing dead for 10 minutes before going off. The only chance FF6 had after that was Melee's rally favoring FF6 over FF7, but when the rally showed up, FF7 began to explode. A 53-47 match gradually turned into a 60-40 beatdown. One can wonder if FF6 could have pulled this upset without the rally, but I think it's more reminiscent of the Mario 3 vs Pokemon RBY match. I don't think there's enough evidence that FF6 would have won this match on its own, with or without an unrelated rally in another poll. Hell of a fun for FF6 though, and seeing two of my all-time favorite games in a poll together filled me with determination. These two games, along with Super Mario RPG, got me into RPGs. There will always be a soft spot in my heart for them. I do wish FF6 had been a little closer here, but I have no complaints about FF7 doing well. Much love for both games all around from me! The one down side here is that an intra-FF series match meant that Final Fantasy 7 was the last Final Fantasy game left in the bracket. It's probably my favorite series along with Fire Emblem and Smash Bros, but in the past few years of these contests I've been routinely disappointed by Final Fantasy's early exits. We were destined to see yet another one in this contest, too. As a complete side note, as of this writing I'm playing the PS4 port of FF7. It's neat getting trophies for this game, and I'm loving the translation fixes and various cleanups that were done. "This guy are sick" was always idiotic, and the script is much, much cleaner now. Full marks for really fixing that game up, and it looks really nice on my HDTV. I don't know if they cleaned the graphics up, too, but yeah. Loving the trip down memory lane here. ### Ctes' Analysis I think what we can use this match for is confirmed once and for all how pointless any Poll of the Day is when it comes to predicting contests. I'm sure everyone remembers that poll. It's the sole reason SBAllen set up this match probably. However, despite that poll having the outcome it did, this was never going to be interesting in the slightest. In fact, of the three \#1 seed vs. \#2 seed matches SBAllen set up, this would end up being the least interesting. Though the Zelda division final was only made interesting due to Undertale spillover. The Mario one was the most interesting, but sadly didn't happen as neither game reached that point. There's just a huge difference between the people voting in every Poll of the Day and the people voting in contests. The first group is such a small part of GameFAQs' core. I'm sure a lot of us didn't even realize it was going on. I know for sure I wouldn't have known about it if it wasn't for the contest stats topics' existence. I don't even check those every day, I could have easily missed it. That takes away a lot of credibility from the poll. Luster made a point about the result coming from the poll title, as it asks which Final Fantasy is better, not which is your favorite, which is what is implied in contests. I really don't think so though. Most people don't really consider those two things different to begin with and furthermore, the game you consider better is almost always the one you like more too. I can see why the last 2D Final Fantasy would be “better” than the first 3D one, but I don't think it is, but as much as I like 2D Final Fantasy, the franchise had an excellent transition to 3D in my opinion. I think the result just comes down to having a small selected group of GameFAQs voting. Perhaps you can consider it a very early sign at the success the SNES had this contest. The core of GameFAQs really likes that console and it was just the right group noticing this poll. I also think this was the peak of the Final Fantasy VII anti-voting. Just look at how the characters fared in 2013 and look at the game's performances now. It had clearly redeemed itself a bit. Final Fantasy VI has really improved too, but it's probably less of a difference since then. It should be noted that Final Fantasy VII likely wouldn't have broken 60% without the force of the Melee rally in the other match. That said, after Final Fantasy VI's great board vote, Final Fantasy VII was already rising fast before the rally kicked in. The rallied Melee people are also likely more “dronish” than the Undertale people, seeing as the latter's rallies were found on various social media and not necessarily always Undertale related profiles while Melee's rallies came from hardcore fans. While the match certainly was a disappointing if you expected something after that poll, I don't think it should be complained about. It was expected all along by everyone who knew anything about contests and Final Fantasy VI got to prove itself before meeting its doom today. It seems pretty clear that it's the second strongest Final Fantasy now, which is quite the improvement. As for Final Fantasy VII, it looked like its run was gonna be cut shorter than originally anticipated, but not by Chrono Trigger as we thought until today. Instead, it seemed pretty clear that it would collapse completely to rallies and rally spillover, which is quite a shame seeing as it could've given us some really fun matches. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6164&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=114) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (8)Pokémon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green vs (6)Undertale 2015 _source: (8)Pokémon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green vs (6)Undertale 2015 (revid 84408)_ ## Results **Round Four** Tuesday, December 8, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 3 - **Match \#:** 115 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, December 8, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Undertale - 50.89% 43 for - 33 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Undertale - 2.58% Pokemon fans, plus a lot of contest fans, felt Pokemon was this contest's last hope. One might say they had all of their hopes and dreams for this contest attached to Pokemon's performance in this match: Before getting into the match, I owe Chris a huge thank you. People tried throwing shade at my Pokemon picture, and Board 8's resident Pokemon guru was very kind in defending it and telling everyone the picture was a great representative of the game. That meant the world to me man, I appreciate it. It was really hard to make and took a long time, too. Normally when people whine about a picture I really don't care; it only bothers me when I know I put a ton of effort into one of them, and that picture took forever to get just right. I made the background blurry on purpose, by the way. I've never liked when backgrounds stood out and took the focus away from the foreground. It was a pain in the ass to take the same city, render it 4 times in 4 different colors, line it up so it formed the same original city, then make it blurry enough to put the focus on the sprites while not being a blob. It was a hard picture to do and I'm very proud of it, so having one of Board 8's three big Pokemon guys (Chris, Red, TRE) like it was awesome. It shut down the rumblings of blaming the picture for the loss, too, which I really appreciate. My best will never be as good as KP/Zen/greatone/etc's best, but I do try. These days the PCA, making images, and cheering on my favorites is why I still do this. I've already had "the thrill of winning", so now I'm mainly here to have fun. Making pictures is a lot of fun, and everyone wants to be appreciated. Not gonna lie though, when the rally got going and my image was everywhere on the internet, it was a very weird experience. Then the same thing happened to an even bigger degree with Melee/Undertale and it was a huge "holy shit, hundreds of thousands of people are actually looking at this" moment. It was really neat, if not really intimidating, seeing my stuff all over social media. I don't know how the other picsmiths feel when that happens, but I honestly wasn't expecting how neat it was. It fills you with determination to try even harder to make better pictures for future matches, that's for sure. Anyway, enough sentimental stuff. Match time. This was the match that many people felt would decide the contest, and most people knew that tumblr, one of the major rally outlets for Undertale, was Pokemon's big stronghold. This would be Undertale's hardest test yet, and it would be its first match against a game that would be able to fight fire with fire. Mass Effect 3 had no hope, Fallout 3's fans didn't care, and there's really no way to rally for Mario. He's the standard-bearer. But Pokemon fans? Pokemon fans can and do rally, often to very high levels. And if Pokemon's fandom was on point, it could easily match whatever Undertale could put out. There wasn't much logic here beyond "can Undertale pull votes from tumblr?", just a potential rally vs rally fight with obscene vote totals. When the match began, Pokemon was nothing short of dominant. "Dominant" is a fair word to use because even though there was a massively frontloaded vote for Pokemon followed by a percentage bleed, Undertale's bandwagon had taken a huge hold by this point of the contest. It was putting out updates upwards of 250-300 votes, and it barely mattered beyond high total votes for the match. Pokemon easily matched and surpassed these updates, and just went to town overnight. Every time Undertale seemed to spike, Pokemon would also spike. The belief that Undertale's rally would also draw in Pokemon fans seemed to be true, and all that stuff about backfire rates seemed to be accurate. Undertale was pulling in its highest vote totals of the entire contest, and Pokemon was, relatively speaking, just laughing at it. There may have been a percentage bleed overnight, but it was a slow percentage bleed and did little to stop Pokemon from building up a huge lead. To give an idea of numbers, Pokemon was at 60% with a lead of nearly 3000 votes two hours in. Two hours into the Super Mario World match, Mario World had 60.96% but only a lead of 2376, and was bleeding percentage at a massive rate. This was clearly a different match altogether. Undertale tried to stall overnight, including even a 50-50 stall for a time, but it did not stop Pokemon from going up in the end. It rocked the night vote, the percentage bleed was slow, and things kept right on moving in Pokemon's favor come the morning vote. The percentage bleed actually stopped come the morning vote, and Pokemon really took the gloves off. While Undertale sat there getting 150-2000 votes per update (which is a HUGE number and meant the final vote totals would be nuts), Pokemon was getting a solid 200-300 every update and did not care. This match settled into a nice pocket in the morning, and really looked as if things would finish in the 56-44 range. I say this because despite Undertale's best efforts -- rally threads were clearly everywhere -- did nothing to even slow Pokemon down. This match stayed at 56-44 all morning and every update was "Pokemon +50". It stayed this way until well past lunch. At 12:55 pm EST, with just over 11 hours to go in the poll, Pokemon's lead peaked at 7570. At this point, Undertale would have had to cut 57 votes per update to come back and win the match. Even at this point when Undertale's rally went up a little in power, it was doing nothing more than shaving at the lead below quota and bleeding percentage. Pokemon was even able to win updates with good numbers during this time, so for the next few hours as Undertale rallied the troops, Pokemon was still very much doing well. It was putting tons of votes out there, it was keeping Undertale at more than arm's length, and things looked really good. Remember how at 12:55 the lead was 7570? Even with Undertale cutting votes, the lead didn't get below 7000 until 3:30 pm. Had things stayed like this, with Undertale getting around 200 an update and Pokemon fluctuating between 150-200, Pokemon easily would have won. I'm gonna pause right here for a few side notes. During the entire morning vote, Undertale was pronounced dead, and for good reason. Undertale had a rally going to be sure, but Pokemon had a really good rally going. r/Pokemon had a topic at the very top, there was a Facebook/Twitter presence, and there was a large tumblr presence. Undertale had the same stuff, but to win this match it really needed to be able to beat Pokemon on tumblr. For this reason, most people assumed the match was over. It seemed as if the tumblr/backfire logic was true, and more importantly, this was the first Undertale opponent that bothered fighting back all contest. That's really what was missing all contest from Undertale's opponents, and here, it had an opponent that clearly did not give two fucks about things like rallies, bandwagons, or hype. Any time Undertale stepped out for the first 12 hours of this poll, Pokemon just smacked it down like a weed. Pokemon hadn't even really gone full force, either. Bulbapdia, Serebii, and there were several pros and developers that could basically end the match any time they wanted to. Us Undertale fans always knew this match was probably the end of the line for very logical reasons, though it was still very hard to watch. A lot of people acted ridiculous and pretended they knew this contest was over after the Mass Effect 3 match. Reasonable people knew that Pokemon was the true road block. We really did have our hopes up about winning the contest once it beat Mario World. Even we were resigned to losing and had basically lost hope in beating Pokemon. That's how over this match was. We all knew the trends and knew how strong Pokemon could be when it tried. But then, come the ASV, the absolutely unthinkable happened. @undertale_bot made one tweet asking people to vote in the poll, and the mother of all floodgates immediately opened. There was no gradual build here. Undertale started cutting 100 votes per update, and kept doing it even as Pokemon tried to fight back against what was happening. It's not like Pokemon rolled over and died; it saw what was up and started pulling in more votes. Those fans knew how to rally too, but Undertale had practiced it enough to make it an art form by this point. Pokemon didn't stand a chance, and it was even fighting back! Didn't matter. Allen was nice enough to legitimize the push: "Almost all of this sudden rush is from Twitter, just like last time, and it happened as soon as that account posted." Before long, Undertale was going full Draven pulling in 350+ vote updates. Just insane numbers that Pokemon could not dream of matching, even with Masuda tweeting about the poll. As the match rapidly got close, Undertale just ratcheted things up even harder, began pulling in updates in excess of 400-450 votes, and just absolutely buried Pokemon right at 8 pm. For the next four hours Undertale slowed down only a little, and would ultimately win the poll by 3643. From the peak lead of 7570 to Undertale taking the lead, seven hours passed. This added another insane comeback to Undertale's pile, along with numbers like 9252, 6834, and 3224. Undertale winning this match cemented it as the clear favorite in this contest, and it also set up a potentially INSANE contest quarterfinal. With Melee/FF7 and Undertale/Mario 64 happening at the same time, there was the potential of having 4 simultaneous rallies at the same exact time. Melee proved it could go, FF7 may have had to get a rally going, we all knew Undertale was coming even though Mario 64 was clearly going to roll over like Mario World did, and who knew if Mario 64 would decide to give us one final Mario Clutch moment? And if Melee was rallying, what's to say Mario 64 wouldn't benefit from extra Nintendo love? It was really fun to think about. Undertale deserves credit here for winning, but this is the first match where we can really blame Undertale's opponent for losing. It's not that Undertale didn't deserve it, but Pokemon's fans didn't show up here. Even though a lot of rallies were going, there was a huge sentiment against RBYG from hardcore Pokemon fans -- fans whose support would have easily won Pokemon this match, even against Undertale's full efforts. Serebii did nothing. Bulbapedia did nothing. Most pros did nothing. Among developers, only Masuda cared. It's like Pokemon only wanted to put half a rally effort out there instead of truly going balls to the wall. And why? Some ridiculous "genwunner" nonsense among the Pokemon fanbase. Rather than wanting RBYG to win and get exposure for the series, hardcore fans basically invited the loss intentionally just to prove a point. There is not a doubt in my mind Pokemon at full power would have mowed over this contest, instead the fanbase had to "beat those genwunners". I don't get it, but I certainly wasn't complaining about Undertale backdooring its way into another win and becoming the contest favorite. But make no mistake: Pokemon threw this match "I wanna be the second best." -transience with the quote of the contest The last thing to mention here is that after a joke vote in the stats topic about buying Facebook ads to get people to vote against Undertale, this idea seriously got passed around the grapevine and people seriously considered it as a viable option. Just think about how insane that is. People wanted to buy Facebook ads for Final Fantasy 7 in a potential FF7/Undertale match. Did you guys ever think we would hear of something so hilarious? The match never would happen, but I'd love to know how much money SephG and MWC were willing to piss away on Facebook ads that no one reads. Oh and this for sure fed into the whole "lol gamefaqs" thing, complete with screenshots all over social media. But it's just a vocal minority, right Board 8? ;) ### Ctes' Analysis This in my opinion is a contender for greatest match of the contest. It was major rally forces against each in the same way Melee vs. Undertale would be, and it wasn't the best match either, but it was probably the greatest in the sense that the whole board exploded more than previously, yet the match was still interesting almost the whole way through. Undertale was the major favorite going on, but RBY held up like a king for way longer than Fallout 3 or Super Mario World. You had people, who previously claimed that nothing would stop Undertale, go forward and admit it was over and that RBY had won it. Undertale ended up managing to get in the lead, but nothing was over at that point. The match was still really dramatic and was decided on an insane and ridiculous twist where a fanbase went against their own. Very eventful 24 hours we had here, that's for sure. The match started out as you would expect. A huge explosion in votals, with Undertale falling behind. The votals were insanely high for both games. Rallies were clearly already there and it definitely effecting the match that the previous ones had a huge rally. Probably wasn't too much, but it likely mostly helped RBY come off to this fantastic start. In less than 20 minutes it was over 1000 votes ahead, which would make almost any match a closed done deal. In less than an hour this was extended to 2000 votes. It slowed, but not by much, in a bit more than 2 hours, RBY was more than 3000 votes in the lead. This was insane. RBY was clearly leagues ahead of the games that fought Undertale in previous matches. The votals were a lot higher than in previous rounds for Undertale matches, and RBY was doing a lot better. Clearly this would be an opponent of a whole different strength for Undertale. Now, this might be speaking a bit too soon, you would think. Once RBY passed 3000 it actually stopped and starting dropping a bit, causing literally everyone to call the match over. I don't blame them. I mean, I do often blame people for acting too fast, but we have seen pretty clearly previously that when Undertale starts cutting, it doesn't really stop, not to mention it'd make sense for that to start earlier this time. Well, RBY didn't care a single bit and just starting adding to its lead quickly again afterward. A very absurd answer to what we've seen so far against Undertale. RBY did amazing. Exactly at the 8 hour mark, RBY was exactly 5000 votes ahead. That's way more than Super Mario World ever had despite having way more votes against it as well. It held up incredibly well. Now, this is partly because RBY has quite the active subreddit, which had a very successful rally topic going. Although for it to be this successful is insane. It's fighting a rallied Undertale. I know Undertale wasn't at its peak yet, but still, damn, this was great. Shows that RBY had contest winning capabilities if it could escape this match. RBY had not stopped yet either. Not at all. A bit after the 11 hour mark it was more than 7000 votes in the lead, making Undertale's previous opponents all look terrible in comparison. Mass Effect 3 at this point had actually yet to pass the 7000 vote lead. Of course that match had nothing special going on for it yet at that point, but consider it for a moment. RBY was outperforming Mass Effect 3 against Undertale at this point of the match despite Mass Effect 3 facing no rallies. We all know RBY would wreck the floor with Mass Effect 3, no doubt about that, but this is three rounds later after large parts of the internet caught on. You'd think Undertale had the contest swallowed up by now, it would have if not for other outside forces than its own, but RBY held on greatly. This was the point where people that had previously said nothing could get in Undertale's way started doubting that statement. Not all of them of course, but a solid handful. We had entered prime Undertale hours and it wasn't moving an inch. RBY just seemed way too strong to take down. Despite rallies being what they are, this is when you knew we had a great match. In any battle in any fictional contest ever, where two opponents are fighting and you know that one of them simply had to advance due to plot armor or something or that, the good fight is made when it gives you doubts. Story writers can chose to make it a walkover for the person wearing the plot armor, this is often the case when a villain had plot armor and rarely ever when a hero wears it. However, they can also chose to make the absolute best of the battle. That happens when the person you know will obviously lose keeps holding on, pulling new tricks, overcoming the odds and so on, constantly. At some point you start wondering if this person actually pull through and win this. This is of course not a fictional battle, but a popularity contest with real people voting, but it's honestly pretty similar. RBY did a lot better than you would today. Unfortunately for RBY, Undertale went into its highest gear within the next, which ultimately stopped RBY from gaining. After standing still for about half an hour, Undertale starting cutting. This time though, it was for real. It should be noted that this was the point where Undertale took the lead from Super Mario World. That's how insanely great RBY had stood up. And Undertale starting cutting, but it sure took a while to get going. Not until a few hours later did Undertale start making big enough cuts for it to possible get the lead in time. If you were a RBY supporter, you had reason to believe in your game in the meantime. Though with these big cuts finally arriving, it was time to actually start panicking. By big cuts I mean cutting off 1000 votes in less than an hour. But this was what we had expected to happen since round 1. I think people forgot about that during RBY's glory, but it was never expected to just keep its lead the match through. People thought of RBY as a possible game to beat Undertale because people believed in its power to withstand these rallies, which, despite how things were looking right now, it had done a pretty great job at so far in the match. The votals were sky high with only a bit less than a third of the match left to go. With that said, it was pretty clear that the idea of RBY getting a great enough amount of the votes rallied to Undertale to withstand its rally powers was out of the window. Undertale would win at its current pace. It makes a lot of sense too, which everyone should've figured from the start. These people are rallied to vote for Undertale and don't particularly care about the contest. Naturally, you vote for that game unless you're incredibly passionate about the opposing game, which no one is about RBY. Many people like Pokemon and many people have very found childhood memories of RBY, but it's not exactly anybody's favorite game. It's just beloved in general for being the beginning of one of the absolute most successful franchises. Another reason why the Undertale rallies obviously wouldn't backfire is that at this point, it was very far from only being about love for Undertale, as were the case in the Mass Effect 3 match, A large amount of the force of the rallies were all about craving for our salty tears, to put it their way. I think a pretty big part of people that started just caring about Undertale had begun enjoying the “see GameFAQs whine” part of it. Last match a profile named Undertalebot was being a jerk towards us. Sure sounds like someone that cares about the game but at the same time was clearly in it to make people mad. So yeah, while we're at it, thank you BracketEntry, ExThaNemesis and MichaelWClark among others. You played a major part in getting people to vote for Undertale. It amazes me you would be stupid enough to think it'd help Undertale's opponents that you were being jerks. Our own board is of course not entirely to blame. I can't count how many times I saw topics from users I had never seen before whining about Undertale doing great. This is probably not the case every time, but I fully expect a bunch of those to have been Undertale supporters figuring out a great way to gain votes by making fun of us. It's a smart trick, because obviously not one of us could prevent anything. At one point during the contest, LordoftheMorons made an attempt to create a polite topic talking to them. At first, it just made no difference as you would expect, but then it actually backfired because users such as the ones I just mentioned before apparently don't learn from their mistakes in this regard. It's incredible how much of this can be contributed to the part of our community that actually didn't want Undertale to win by any means. There is just nothing that the ones of us that were being nice, a vast majority of board 8's regulars, could do about it! Didn't matter that there were probably far more jerks among Undertale's supporters than its opponents' supporters by now, if for no other reason than the fact that they just greatly outnumbered them by now. Because people being against Undertale were jerks first, well, there was just nothing to do. Undertale could also keep an underdog status going through the contest despite clearly not being that anymore. The thought of an indie game winning would blind people so much that they didn't care to realize it was a clear favorite to take it all at this point, more than Final Fantasy VII was ever a clear favorite, but that game still gets blamed for always winning. When Zelda gets the blame, it's at least somewhat understandable. None of that should matter during this match, but it does for some reason. CycloReaper made a brilliant sarcastic poll topic about this, simply asking people why they voted for Undertale giving an option that said something along the lines of “Tired of Final Fantasy winning, so I'm voting against beloved Final Fantasy game; RBY.” and another one just with Zelda instead of Final Fantasy among other hilarious answers. I know that's not what people think exactly and that they don't care enough to actually learn a bit about out contest history since SBAllen took over for CJayC, but cmon, it's not like Undertale is like the only hope if you don't want those to win. In fact, it's quite ironic, because if Undertale pulled this match off, the contest would actually be more predictable than it would've been otherwise due to Ocarina of Time clearly having lost a step and Chrono Trigger having claimed 10. Melee would be the only thing in the way of Undertale having a 100% chance of victory if it escaped this match. Undertale's absolutely perfect match trends were once again on its side as well. And once again, but for the final time, 12-hour matches would've caused it to lose. It's much easier for them to rally for the game when it's behind for so long, so it build up a huge loads of support it then fires with Draven like powers in the late afternoon. But the true beauty of it is how difficult it is to rally against. How do you get people to support a game and spread the word when it's leading by a few thousand votes? We saw Fallout 3 completely fail to do anything despite its sequel being completely fresh of release at the time of the match, which was partly due to this. The Pokemon subreddit rally is one of the very few exceptions to this, as it clearly helped RBY a lot when it was already winning early on, but now RBY was having a serious problem because that thread was posted when it was. The subreddit would not allow repeat threads, so now when RBY needed it the most, well, it had fallen down and couldn't be restored. It's fun to imagine what would've happened if it had been made later. Like, RBY would've have kept up as great, but it would clearly be more effective during daytime and when RBY was actually struggling. This is of course very unrealistic, as it takes only a single person not thinking about these things and posting the topic for such a plan to be blown. No, at this point it was more than clear that Undertale would take the lead by storm. RBY managed to held on to its lead a few more hours than Fallout 3 did as well. Once again, very impressive! But the lead change would happen. It happened at 19:55. Ultimately the only lead change of the match as you can imagine. Undertale was at full force at this time, increasing the lead to more than 1000 votes in half an hour. RBY would have to act very fast now. Undertale would slow after getting the lead, but still be in full force. We saw Fallout 3 fail completely at this, but people believed that RBY could counter rally and honestly, they had pretty great reason to. Pokemon has a huge active community to call out for. If people could just get some big sides or people to share the match link, we might just stand a chance. Serebii had already been attempted and had been nice enough to answer. The answer was not what people hoped for, Serebii would only share official stuff. However, a very impressive handful did share this poll. First of all, Bulbagarden. Great active forum consisting of a wikia and a newssite with tons of followers on their twitter profile as well, which is what they used to share the link. But it failed. Pokemon Global News, a Facebook page with more than 200,000 followers, shared this poll. But it failed. Junichi Masuda himself shared this poll on his twitter profile. But it failed. Those three things, especially the last one, should've been huge game changers and they had absolutely no effect on the outcome of this match. They far exceed the Fallout subreddit. ExTha actually took a pretty great screenshot regarding this. Look at that! It really is ridiculous. That top comment though, it's far from the only place we saw that. People hard expected rallies to backfire in this match, but, I don't think anyone ever thought of it the other way around, which is a bit weird when it makes perfect sense. Undertale is brand new and hot right now. It's what people are talking about. RBY's rallies backfired so greatly today. Of course, that can't solely be contributed to the fact that some Pokemon fans liked Undertale better. We learned today how much the hardcore Pokemon community dislikes the first generation of Pokemon. I heard the term “Genwunners” before, but damn, who knew that would backfire within the fanbase like this. Apparently, generation I is grealy disliked for being glitchy and unbalanced and what not, so instead of supporters the last remaining contender of their favorite franchise, they anti-vote it. This clearly made a difference. Not saying Undertale wouldn't necessarily still win, but we would've felt a difference near the end if the Pokemon fanbase wasn't as split as it is and was more passionate about all of their franchise instead of just more recent games. It makes sense the Pokemon themselves are easier to rally for in this regard. That's how the match ended. The Pokemon fanbase back stabbed itself as Undertale fans and anti-GameFAQs people enjoyed themselves. I can't think of anything I've seen in this contest that compared to this. I mean, take Final Fantasy. XII is disliked and does far worse than say VII, but it's not at all the same. It doesn't have the same kind of fanbase. It's so absurd that the by far strongest entry from a franchise is so disliked by the franchise's most hardcore fans. Crazy. Especially when you consider that the games are incredibly similar each generation. Sure, they add new things and balance it out, but the games have the same structure every generation. I completely fail to understand the logic here. While, we're at it, I'd to take this opportunity to greatly trash talk people that use the term “genwunners”, as someone who really enjoys all generations, considers Black 2 and White 2 the best of Pokemon and really wishes more people would play beyond the first two generations. This write-up is crazy long already, but there is no better time to do this in the contest. I do fully understand that it's annoying to talk about a late Pokemon game and be met with a comment along the lines of “it's not gen 1 so it sucks”. That's being ignorant. I get that and sure, such being are annoying, I agree. I will go as far as saying it's a fun term to describe them. However, the people using this term are almost always incredible hypocritical and comes off as huge jerks themselves with their attitude and behavior. Which is honestly very stupid considering most of the people they call “genwunners” are likely just trolling them and doing a good job it apparently. The term actually exists in the urban dictionary. Look at those definitions! We can act like the word is only used for defining the people that are actually being jerks about not playing past generation I. Then these are fine. I guess even if we include the obvious trolls, it's fine, because trolls are generally jerks I guess, it's just that clearly some people are not good at realizing they're being trolled. Then this match happens and apparently this term is being used to describe people supporting RBY against Undertale. I'm not sure exactly where the line goes, but they crossed it so long ago it's out of sight now. I saw several of them during and after the match. They were being huge jerks themselves, much worse than I've ever seen any so called genwunner be. Apparently I, among others, am a huge idiot for liking RBY when the games have become completely obsolete after the release of later Pokemon games. This logic is so flawed, so stupid and so arrogant. It's completely fine that a group of people sees no reason to go back to playing the original generation. I don't mind a single bit. However, apparently, at least a large group of them can't understand that some people do see reasons. Let me go over a few. RBY is first of all really simple, which can be nice. No natures, abilities, EV yield, happiness, genders or anything to look at when catching a Pokemon for example. No grooming, contests, Pokestudios or something additional I really don't care for a mandatory tutorial of. It's just about becoming champion. No gimmicks. Furthermore, it's relatively difficult. Pokemon has never been hard, but you could encounter challenges back in the day to some extend. A rival that actually feels like a rival, something at least half the games lack by now. He's also easily my favorite rival to this day. There are probably more reasons, but this is enough. The moment RBY offers something later games don't, everyone should accept stuff like this, some of us have reason to go back and play these. You don't have to agree, just don't be insulting to the ones you disagree with! This is games we're talking about after all. But they can't do that. They're terribly insulting. I don't know how many insults I received from them during this match from trying to explain this. I was told XY was way better for example and I was a genwunner aka an idiot for not agreeing with this despite Black 2 and White 2 being my favorite games, following by HGSS and Platinum. Sure, Kalos introduced Amie, Super Training, grooming, Battle Mansion and whatever, doesn't mean everyone necessarily enjoys all of that. It's not like the special split, abilities, new types, severely upgraded box and bag systems, moves being either physical or special rather than type among other new permanent features are disliked. I love all those things, but the simple RBY offers some things too that I like going back to. Had this just been a few trolls, I would've let it slide, but it's not, a bunch of people in the Pokemon community literally act this way. Looking down on people with different opinions than their own. It saddens me a lot that the community of the franchise I might just have dedicated the most time overall is such a terrible acting community. Probably my least favorite gaming community actually. Can Charizard please be my favorite fire starter without me being an arrogant, ignorant jerk, please? I also just don't understand this. Even if you think later games have outdone RBY in every single way and you have no reason to ever play them again, that doesn't make them bad! They were the originals, of course they have less material overall than its successors when all the games are practically the same, but it's okay, when they came they were fantastic! Took the gaming industry by storm. A bunch of these people used to love the games. If you think they aged bad that doesn't make them bad, really. They were great for their time. Sure, they're glitchy, but that's very easy to avoid when playing. And sure, it sucked competitively, but how many played that back then anyway. Obsolete is in no way the same as bad. I really don't understand turning this much against the games that introduced you and set the standard for your very favorite franchise today. It's completely beyond me. Finally, RBY is not the biggest Pokemon games on this site because we're all ignorant about the future. It's just that a bunch of people here stopped caring about Pokemon, RBY included, but they played that before they stopped caring, so that one they at least know. Doesn't make the following games bad necessarily, they just have a lower playrate. RBY lost today in such a crazy manner. Even so, it's definitely a beast looking out for in the future. It looked like it had a lot of potential in these things back in 2009 and it proved that this contest. It's a top 5 game whether you include rallies or not. Very strong. Would've possibly won the contest had it faced Undertale just a single round earlier. You can say that Undertale won the contest when it passed Mass Effect 3, but it definitely had a challenge today. A big one. You can look at that 3000 vote lead and say it was easy, but RBY pushed Undertale to its limits and had community liked these games better RBY wins very easily. Which is insane considering the force Undertale is at now. Super Mario 64 doesn't stand a chance. Melee appears to have enough rally power to look impressive and while that match is not completely decided, Undertale goes into it as a bigger favorite than it was today. We have learned that rally backfiring doesn't work for Undertale, it helps it's a recent indie game in this regard. We never had the Mario gauntlet, but it's pretty clear that even if Undertale wasn't there, RBY still would've easily beat all three. It benefits from NostalgiaFAQs on a level of SNES games. It wont grow in a few years probably, seeing as this site will practically be the same people then, so the SNES era will still be the pinnacle of nostalgia, but it will be just as strong. I'm somewhat glad RBY has rally backfire, it evens out a bit its rally power and it also means it can't become a beast in the way Melee has become, which I don't think is fun. It'll be an elite game in future contests, but definitely with losing capabilities. So huge props to RBY for being a major bump in Undertale's path to victory. It would've been more boring to see it swallow the contest more and more each round than what we had today. At this point, only a very few doubted its victory. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6165&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=115) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim vs (3)Super Mario 64 2015 _source: (1)The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim vs (3)Super Mario 64 2015 (revid 84409)_ ## Results **Round Four** Tuesday, December 8, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 4 - **Match \#:** 116 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, December 8, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Mario 64 - 59.11% 76 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Mario 64 - 26.18% This match took a complete back seat to the Pokemon/Undertale madness, and for good reason. Any prayer Skyrim had of winning this match disappeared when it struggled to beat Metroid Prime, and frankly it was lucky to beat Prime at all. Come this match, it would be time to meet its maker. It's cool how this match barely changed even with two separate rallies going on, which I'm not at all joking about. Sure it makes for a boring match and a boring writeup, but seeing this match stay in the 61-39 range even amidst two rallies that would seemingly favor Mario was rather impressive. Mario had every reason to spike up into an absurd percentage here, but it never happened. It was ho-hum Mario victory to boot the Elder Scrolls series from the contest, but even in losing Skyrim made a good effort. 39% on Mario 64 is not a number to be embarrassed about, and this poll only got 7000 less votes than the poll people actually cared about. That's pretty good for these two, all things considered, and it showed that multiple polls per day is a format that should definitely continue in these contests. Despite a lot of whining about it, no match's result changed because of a neighboring poll. Sure it might happen down the line, but that's part of the fun. We're back to the 2002 era where bracketmaking is largely about common sense picks, smart guesswork and cheering on favorites. It's tournaments as they were meant to be. This would set up the potentially ridiculous FF7/Melee/Undertale/Mario 64 day, which wouldn't pan out into anything ridiculous but it was still very fun to speculate about four simultanous rallies. ### Ctes' Analysis This match was never in doubt at any point of the contest and Skyrim never allowed above 40% made it a boring one too. Don't let the numbers fool you though. Super Mario 64 was heavily favored by the rallies from the other match. It started out almost doubling Skyrim, then fell in percentage for most of the day, though kept gaining as well. When Undertale finally started destroying RBY, Super Mario 64 gained in percentage for the remaining of the match. There is not doubt in my mind that Skyrim breaks 40% in different circumstances. That means in a match not affected by rallying. Breaking 40% wouldn't exactly make it a good match, far from actually. But it shows that Skyrim is legit, which is darn impressive for any Western game, but especially one from this decade. Had Skyrim been in contests when our votals were greater, in other words, when NostalgiaFAQs wasn't as great, it would've been a stronger threat than Fallout 3 in Game of the Decade for sure. Lose to Brawl back then, it probably would, but it'd be a lot stronger than it is now. If the site gets redeemed a bit in this regard, Skyrim is a game to look out for. If a second Game of the Decade contest comes, I guarantee that Skyrim will be a top contender, though I have a hard time seeing a non-Nintendo actually taking the title unless it's a game with huge outside rallies, so expect Skyrim to see the semi-finals or maybe finals depending on bracket placement. Skyrim had the unfortunate placement this contest of being right after an Undertale match every single round until it actually shares poll space with Undertale. This never really seemed to favor Skyrim, though in the second round it at least didn't favor its opponent either. With that said, it's great that Skyrim was ultimately unaffected by this. It's first two opponents were too weak for Skyrim to be bothered by spillover and it did overcome a spillover boosted Metroid Prime as well. Getting blown out today sucks, but it was never going to win this one. This is good for our already bad reputation on the outside when it comes to these contests. Despite being due to outside rallies, had Skyrim lost early, that wouldn't exactly make people look less down on us for favoring older games. This doesn't matter against Super Mario 64, that one was a big revolutionary game that is very popular today too in particular among speed runners. As for Super Mario 64, it managed to get to the point everyone expected it to get, though it wouldn't lose to what anyone expected it to. It could've had an interesting match then perhaps, but would never be the favorite in it. At this point, it was pretty clear that it would lose easily. At least it would be the only Mario game in the Mario gauntlet to actually reach the point where it could've met another Mario game and it got a few rounds further too, so despite pretty clearly being the weakest of the three, it can take that achievement with it. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6166&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=116) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs (2)Castlevania: Symphony of the Night 2015 _source: (1)The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs (2)Castlevania: Symphony of the Night 2015 (revid 84410)_ ## Results **Round Four** Wednesday, December 9, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 5 - **Match \#:** 117 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, December 9, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 65.94% 75 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 69.51% Every round has a dud match here and there, but thankfully for this contest the divisional finals only had one match that was truly a dud. Even Mario 64 \> Skyrim was entertaining insofar as its vote total, even if nothing exciting happened there. Rally spillover meant virtually nothing in this match, as it was a 68-32 affair for virtually all 24 hours. Symphony of the Night did well to win three matches and make the divisional final, but it was never going to do anything here. Ocarina, as bad a contest as it had, is still one of our contest titans and was always going to score a huge blowout here. That being said, Zelda got 68.18% here. Based on 2009, Zelda was supposed to get 76.73%. Even in a blowout win that was barely worth talking about, Ocarina still managed to look a step too slow. We all know this wouldn't matter until the finals, but it would have been hilarious seeing it lose before then. Allen really needs to stop putting Ocarina/FF7 or Link/Cloud on opposite sides of the bracket for posterity. Contests are unpredictable enough now to where we don't need that as our "guaranteed fallback finals plan". Guarantee some fresh blood in there right from the start, I say. ### Ctes' Analysis There's always that one match every round that is way less interesting before, during and after the match than any other match of the round. Said match is always the Ocarina of Time match too! Symphony of the Night had a pretty great run, though it had no competition until its eventual destruction. It managed to look pretty great on the way here. Being one of the four \#2 seeds to actually make the division finals is worth something too. Even if it had what was perhaps the easiest path to get there and would've lost in the divisions where the \#2 seed lost as well. It was a surprise \#2 seed but to where it was supposed to. I know this is viewed as another disappointing result from our defending champion despite being one huge blowout. This is supported by x-stats from 2004 and 2009. However, even before taking anti-votes into account, I don't think it's that bad. Symphony of the Night has received a status as a well-beloved classic now. It had really good results, they're just easily ignored because Symphony of the Night was supposed to get here regardless of its strength boost. I guess people forgot they all underestimated it percentage wise last round. Interestingly, this match was pretty much unaffected by rally spillover. At first this is weird, considering how the rallies favor things that relevant today. Zelda is still big today and Castlevania has been a joke since it got 3D games. However, Ocarina of Time is the like the main villain for the Undertale rallies, so that's probably why it evens out and we get a match that is unaffected. Ocarina of Time was obviously still just on the way to the finals despite being affected by this each round from now. The bracket was designed to have one ridiculously boring path for Ocarina of Time, which comes with both up and downsides. I really want to see Symphony of the Night in some actually debatable matches next time. It would be fun to see where it is today, because it has clearly improved. Putting in the seventh division would've been fun. Super Mario RPG beats it, but what else there does? It has cemented itself as a legit game, rightfully. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6167&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=117) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past vs (2)The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 2015 _source: (1)The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past vs (2)The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 2015 (revid 84411)_ ## Results **Round Four** Wednesday, December 9, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 6 - **Match \#:** 118 - **Match Date:** Wednesday, December 9, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: A Link to the Past - 59.71% 75 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zelda: A Link to the Past - 36.52% Did you know that to this point, Majora's Mask had never lost 1v1 in a contest? It's true. This match was the perfect indicator of exactly how long rally spillover lasts, which is exactly 90 minutes or so. The previous day had seen Undertale/Pokemon madness, which clearly spilled over into the next day. Maybe not Ocarina/SotN so much, but it was definitely felt here. One can argue how close LTTP and Majora's Mask are "supposed" to be normally (which is logic I will never agree with, but whatever), but I think most people agreed that Link to the Past would easily win this match with minimal interference. Well for an hour and a half, Majora's Mask put the fear of god himself into Link to the Past. All that rallying that was going on in the previous match clearly favored Majora here, and Majora rode the wave all the way up to a 600 vote lead 90 minutes into the poll. On top of rally spillover, Majora also had a clear picture advantage, it's been a great contest story since Game of the Decade, and it was the clear hipster option if you were one of those "really, we have to deal with 3 Zelda games hogging the contest at one time?" types. Had Majora retained this momentum, it would have been a really cool upset. It also would have made for a hilarious match next round between Ocarina and Majora's Mask. Unfortunately, Majora's Mask luck would run out, and its lead would disappear slowly and painfully before getting buried. Link to the Past slowly whittled the lead all the way down overnight, and it caught up right as the morning vote hit. The morning vote would clearly favor Link to the Past, and a 50-50 match entering the morning vote would turn into a very comfortable 52-48 win. Link to the Past may have won, but Majora's Mask was the star of the show and sacrificing itself to show us exactly how long rally spillover lasts was very kind. I think Majora did it intentionally just to show us there was a larger force at work !! But seriously, three Zelda games at the same time was completely silly. It's not their fault as the games are strong, but when it does finally come to fruit it is mighty boring to watch. But thanks to the series cannibalizing itself, only two games from the Zelda series made the final 8. It easily could have been 3 or 4 with better draws elsewhere, so we should be thankful. ### Ctes' Analysis I understand that Majora's Mask kinda being a defending champion would make you want to pick it in an upset, but despite what some people like to think, it's leagues behind Ocarina of Time, so naturally it would never going to stand a chance facing A Link to the Past in a one against one match. A Link to the Past is a highly respected and very successful Zelda game, the king of the 2D games in fact and with a high playrate to go. Majora's Mask is the lowest selling home console Zelda, that was released within the end of its console's lifetime and greatly stood in the shadows of its fellow Nintendo 64. It has a cult following due to being quite a bit different from your usual Zelda. With darker tones, an incredibly high amount of side-questing and unusual but brilliant time system, Majora's Mask really became something else. The game is not obscure by any means, and having a notable part of the fanbase favor it certainly helps, but due to the reasons mentioned about, it falls a bit behind the top Zelda games, which are the ones remaining after this round. It don't doubt for a second it would beat Wind Waker and Twilight Princess at the very least on our site, but I didn't doubt for a second it would lose today either. It had cemented itself as a solid third place here when it comes to Zelda games. Personally, I find Majora's Mask to be one of the most unique gaming experiences I have had, which I consider really impressive considering it's actually just another game of a big Nintendo franchise and those don't really ever seem that different in their core. Although it comes with a small amount of dungeons and some backtracking, the game has a fantastic atmosphere and feels a lot more alive the by far the most games ever created. Every NPC is doing their own stuff, they're living on their own, regardless of what you're doing and when, they have their schedules set, which they follow around you. The high amount of side quests is a perfect way to truly experience this. Obviously most games can't pull this off for tons of reasons, but the three day system is a brilliant way of making such a thing work. I'll also give the game credit for being surprisingly challenging for a Nintendo game and while it has few dungeons, it has what is the best dungeon in the series. I am of course talking about the Stone Tower Temple. Now, despite this match being a no brainer, it was surprisingly close actually. For quite a while, the match was favoring Majora's Mask big time due to rally spillover from RBY vs. Undertale, where I'm sure both fanbases greatly prefer the more recent Zelda. With rally and spillover numbers being as relatively large as they are, Majora's Mask jumped off to a huge lead likely causing a bunch of people that never doubted A Link to the Past before to do just that. Although it was obviously spillover, I doubt blame anybody for getting a scare. In just a minute, Majora's Mask had a 100 vote lead, that's quite terrifying in our contests. Of course, as people realized Undertale had finished its job, the rallies slowly disappeared and the spillover with it, so Majora's Mask's income quickly decreased in amount. It kept gaining for almost one and a half hour, managing to go just beyond a 600 vote lead, but then A Link to the Past started cutting and it was practically over. Without spillover, A Link to the Past was just going to win by less than 1000 votes, this was nothing. Despite taking its sweet time and losing occasional updates, A Link to the Past was getting the job done. It took the lead just before the 7 hour mark and never looked back. I guess spillover made an otherwise boring day interesting for just a short time, which is probably the best I can say about it. Although I would've been terribly annoyed had spillover actually flipped a match, but as I said, these two games were never close. It's difficult with Zelda games in these things. I don't know if Allen thought better of Majora's Mask, but while I understand feeding A Link to the Past, Majora's Mask could have probably seen better bracket placement. Of course, I'm very happy it didn't, because a certain SNES games proved to be a lot stronger than we thought last round and provided my favorite match of the contest against Majora's Mask is a shockingly close match. It's interesting. Two contests in a row, Majora's Mask had the best of the contest and barely won it too. With that in mind, it's a happy farewell to our Game of the Decade champion. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6168&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=118) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (9)Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars vs (2)Resident Evil 4 2015 _source: (9)Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars vs (2)Resident Evil 4 2015 (revid 84412)_ ## Results **Round Four** Thursday, December 10, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 7 - **Match \#:** 119 - **Match Date:** Thursday, December 10, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Mario RPG - 48.19% 20 for - 54 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Mario RPG - 6.41% Undertale going on its crazy run partially blinded people to Super Mario RPG also making a crazy run of its own, and even though it winning three matches was predictable the second it beat Oblivion, the match here against Resident Evil 4 was its coming out party. Mario RPG's prediction percentages may not be Undertale level, but they were still drastically low and Mario RPG needs to be given all the credit in the world for the run it made this year. As fate would have it, all those warning signs that Resident Evil 4 showed us leading up to this match were quite relevant. yoblazer makes one call every contest against the grain that pans out, and for this contest it was Mario RPG beating Resident Evil 4. His logic was that old games would embarrass new games in a fair bracket, and he was proven right tenfold as this contest progressed. There were signs all over the place that this was coming, but when the match itself happened and Resident Evil 4 never even came close, eyes were opened. Even the standard SMRPG European percentage bleed did nothing to spare RE4 from getting thoroughly embarrassed here. All it did was turn a 57-43 beating into 54-46 overnight, but then the morning vote came and the burial continued. This wasn't just any game, either. This was Resident Evil 4, which is on the short list of being among the objectively greatest games ever made. And it just went out there and got its ass absolutely plowed for 24 solid hours. There was a host of "this is why GameFAQs gets made fun of" topics, but really, this loss is on Capcom. Their business philosophy basically amounts to "throw as much shit on the wall as possible", and among the 2398432984 Resident Evil games they've made, they struck gold with Resident Evil 4. How did they follow it up? In typical Capcom fashion. Go play RE5 and RE6 and see for yourself just how awful that company is. It sucks that RE4 had to be the game to sacrifice so that Capcom could get its comeuppance in this contest, but certain things need to be done for the greater good. RE4 getting pasted and making more people aware of how shit Capcom is counts as "the greater good". There is not one Capcom series that they have not completely run into the ground, and no one should ever buy games from those idiots ever again. Resident Evil 4 may not have deserved this beating, but Crapcom certainly did. That, the old \> new theme, and Mario RPG getting its own bandwagon going spelled doom for RE4 before this match ever begun. Even more alarming here is how 55-45 against RE4 was such a high number that the winner of MGS/MGS3 was likely also completely screwed. Mario RPG this contest was just on a whole different level. ### Ctes' Analysis Looking at the names and consoles at play here, there really shouldn't have been any doubt this would be the outcome, yet most people didn't doubt the opposite outcome would happen. Super Mario RPG hasn't looked particularly bad in the past, but seeing it put the same percentage on Street Fight II and clearly being a step behind GoldenEye doesn't make a victory today look very likely. Even after we realized this was the Year of SNES, Resident Evil 4 was still supposed to win it. It destroyed Paper Mario easily and its performances in the other rounds had good explanations. May I remind that Resident Evil 4 was legit stronger than Twilight Princess, Kingdom Hearts II and Metal Gear Solid 2 just six years ago? This match was supposed to go be easy for Resident Evil 4 and it just wasn't. Though its not limited to that, the first reason is that Resident Evil 4 clearly lost a step or three. It doesn't matter what Super Mario RPG had going for it, 2009 Resident Evil 4 would've easily won this match and 2010 Resident Evil 4 clearly would too, even if it did seem weaker. I suppose this is partly due to NostalgiaFAQs, but also the Resident Evil franchise never really getting back to where it was at this point. Resident Evil 5 was nothing like 4, 6 is practically joke and who remembers games like Umbrella Chronicles. The series is not beyond saving, but it's in no good position and I think it hurts the overall picture of it. Then of course it is the Year of SNES. This is not the Super Mario RPG from the previous contests. As with any other SNES game, it received this major boost from being from just the right age of gaming and it shows. However, I think Super Mario RPG had a strength boost beyond that. It had just the perfect bracket position. Coming out of an eight pack filled with Grand Theft Auto games and World of Warcraft might seem obvious to us, but is quite the upset to a casual. I'm certain Super Mario RPG had a bandwagon going on for it as this point to make this match even easier. Skyrim or not, there is no way Oblivion is stronger than Resident Evil 4 now. It also explain the percentage trends. Super Mario RPG still dropped a bit of percentage in the dead hours, but it was quite minimal compared to previous rounds and there is really no other explanation for that. You really can't blame anyone for getting this match wrong. The prediction percentage really says it all. Despite this match seeming somewhat obvious in reverse, we had the Paper Mario result to look at the whole time and there was really no reason for Super Mario RPG and Paper Mario to be t hat far apart. For all we knew, the score on New Vegas might have been really great too with Fallout 4 just coming out and after seeing BioShock against Metal Gear Solid 3 the next day. It was discussed, but Resident Evil 4 was the favorite up until the beginning of the match. Super Mario RPG was looking likely to accomplish big things now and get the miracle run of the contest. That title could be given to Undertale's run, but I don't think it should considering it was considering likely to win it all after round 1. Super Mario RPG was a favorite in the quarter-finals after today, but Metal Gear Solid 3 didn't look bad either. Resident Evil 4 was slightly stronger than it in 2009 and slightly weaker in 2010 and despite the Metal Gear Solid series losing a step as well, it's clearly a smaller one, and Snake Eater was currently redeeming itself quite a bit. If Super Mario RPG somehow didn't have a bandwagon going for it now, it certainly needed to have one next round. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6168&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=118) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)Metal Gear Solid vs (3)Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater 2015 _source: (1)Metal Gear Solid vs (3)Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater 2015 (revid 84413)_ ## Results **Round Four** Thursday, December 10, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Division:** Division 8 - **Match \#:** 120 - **Match Date:** Thursday, December 10, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Metal Gear Solid 3 - 48.54% 23 for - 48 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Metal Gear Solid 3 - 13.72% Metal Gear Solid series fans have wanted this match for years, and finally getting it was awesome. We have argued about 1 vs 3 basically since the day 3 came out, and while I know one poll on GameFAQs won't stop us series fans from arguing, just seeing the match was amazing. My own opinion, for those who care, is that MGS3 is the better game among the two, and while I think Solid Snake is a better character than Big Boss in the series (especially after playing 5, holy crap), MGS3 Big Boss is a much better character to me than MGS1 Solid Snake. MGS1 Snake is immature and unintelligent to me, especially in Twin Snakes wheer they tried turning him into fucking Neo from The Matrix. MGS3 also wins in gameplay, graphics, replayability, and how the story is told. It doesn't have the better story, but it does have better storytelling. There is a difference. The entire game up until The End being dry also bogs it down, plus the constant menu-hopping has been discussed ad infinitum. MGS1 wins on story, music, pacing, nostalgia, and characters. By today's standards, MGS3 can be picked up and played right now, while the original Metal Gear Solid has aged like a fucking corpse. I acknowledge the game was great for its time, and while I hate the "aged badly" argument that people always bring up with Goldeneye, Metal Gear Solid is a game where I'll break character and use that argument. That game is unplayable now. Have you people who think 1 \> 3 actually played MGS1 recently? I replayed the entire series to get hyped for 5. I promise you that while 3 has some problems, it's better than 1. It's close, but it is better. So for me, the best possible poll result would be MGS3 winning close. And in a contest loaded with matches that gave me exactly what I wanted, MGS3 went out there and won close. This match was close enough to where MGS1 could be as respectable as possible in defeat, but far away enough to where the match was ever in doubt. Without the presence of a rally, MGS3 was never going to lose this match. This was about as constant a 52-48 as you'll get, and really this was a match with no true losers. It was a day to celebrate and discuss the legacy of Metal Gear Solid, and given how the entire series looked like garbage this contest after MGS5 dropped the ball, it was nice as a fan to just have a poll all to myself. Series ranking: 2 \> 4 \> 5 \> 3 \> 1. 5 has a lot of problems, but having far and away the best gameplay in the series puts it over for me. This match put a bow on the divisional finals. We only had three 1 vs 2 matchups out of a possible 8, which shows how unpredictable things were despite the good seeding, and the final 8 had a good variety to it. Melee, FF7, Undertale, Mario 64, Ocarina, LTTP, Mario RPG, and Metal Gear Solid 3 is a well-rounded bunch. 4 companies and 6 series were represented here, and every game that got this far very much deserved it. There was no Wind Waker. No Shadow of the Colossus. No Warcraft 3 or World of Warcraft. No Capcom, Activision, EA, Ubisoft, Blizzard, or Microsoft. None of those dumb flash games like Clash of Clans or Candy Crush or Farmville that make billions of dollars (though I would support them rallying if they chose to). No Minecraft. No joke games, like Big Rigs or Cory in the House. There was really no bullshit at all, just 8 games that deserved to be here and can objectively be called the best game ever. It was great to see, getting here was a great ride, and the final week of the contest would be an absolute classic. Just everything one could hope for in a contest happened this season. ### Ctes' Analysis Considering what we've seen so far, this result makes little no sense for several reasons. Be there rSFF or not, I wanna say Metal Gear Solid 3 redeemed the series. This is not actually the case, the Mother 3 match and the BioShock embarrassment still just happened, but we'd lie if we said Metal Gear Solid 3 didn't surprise us positively the latest two rounds. Funny enough, a majority of board 8 got 0 of 16 possible points today. The match, boring and linear as it was, sure had quite the shocking result. Most of us were aware that Metal Gear Solid 3 is the fan favorite of the series. Rightfully so, if I may add, it's my personal favorite too. Big Boss is my favorite character from the series as well. It was refreshing to see it do so well again, showing that destroying Mass Effect 2 last round wasn't only because of that game being weak, but also because Metal Gear Solid 3, even if it is past its prime, is still legit. Oh, and somehow Mother 3 isn't complete trash in these things despite not having been released outside of Japan. Despite being the fan favorite, you wouldn't expect it to win a match against the original game for Playstation 1. More people played it and it's also easily the least disliked of the bunch, as in, I'm not sure anybody does. It was supposed to win comfortably and yet that happened the other way. Seriously, how many times this contest has the game from the PS2 era or beyond won a debatable match against a game from before it except of course for Undertale and Melee rallies? The only instance I can think of is Xenogears losing to KOTOR, which was a somewhat debatable match. Furthermore, even taking non-debatable matches into account, the new additions to the list would only be when FFX beat MMX and MGSV, MGS2 and Resident Evil 4's round 1 victories, of which only one of those didn't have the winning game disappoint big time. Consider those trends and Metal Gear Solid 3's victory looks incredibly weird, and especially because it flat out looked some levels below Metal Gear Solid earlier in the contest. I suppose the core fanbase sided with Metal Gear Solid 3 big time, because otherwise it shouldn't be enough to overcome casual votes and bracket votes. This is the only time in the whole contest that a winning underdog in such a match was the more recent game. That's why you can't help, but consider rSFF, even though that's a phenomenon which existence we still haven't agreed on. I personally don't think there was though, the Mass Effect 2 match makes be confident too. It doesn't seem out of the question that BioShock was legit, even before rallies and the match with Mother 3 can be explained too. Earthbound performed almost 10% better on Metal Gear Solid than Mother 3 did on Metal Gear Solid 3, roughly 33% extra votes. Most of that fanbase it pretty passionate about the game, I'm assuming they're all well-aware of Mother 3's existence. A bunch of them likely played it or are at least passionate enough to support a game they're sure they'd like. Not to mention Earthbound and Mother 3 are polar opposites of Metal Gear, so it makes sense they perform better than you'd expect. That a bit more than a fourth of Earthbound's voters don't know or care for Mother 3 is amount that makes sense to me. It's really the only explanation that makes sense of the whole thing, so I think it's what we should go with. We saw two upsets today leaving many experts without points. Metal Gear Solid 3 hopefully managed to make fans of the series smile again. It still had a semi-final shot, but Super Mario RPG's upset today, make it seem a lot less likely that the semi-finalist would be the division 8 winner. Metal Gear Solid 3 defied the usual trends today, but it's something completely different when facing a game from GameFAQs' golden era of gaming that can pull in both Nintendo and Square fans while likely riding a bandwagon. Unlike Metal Gear Solid which had fallen slightly in strength this contest, Super Mario RPG had a clear boost, bandwagon or not. Metal Gear Solid 3 showed the past two rounds to likely not have fallen as much as Resident Evil 4, but it would enter the quarter-finals as the underdog. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6170&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=120) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Super Smash Bros. Melee vs (2)Final Fantasy VII 2015 _source: (3)Super Smash Bros. Melee vs (2)Final Fantasy VII 2015 (revid 84414)_ ## Results **Quarterfinals** Friday, December 11, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Contest Quarterfinal - **Match \#:** 121 - **Match Date:** Friday, December 11, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Smash Bros. Melee - 49.25% 38 for - 33 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Smash Bros. Melee - 6.67% So, who remembers this poll? I sure did, and when I made my bracket, I really wanted to pick Melee to pull this upset. But I just could not look past that poll. 62-38 is crazy to turn around, even if the rematch did happen 11 years later. Even if you rely on the 2009 stats (and FF7 was a monster that year), FF7 was expected to get 59.77%, which is very close to the 2004 result. My heart said Melee. My mind said Melee. But my logical center, that stupid part of my brain that seems to override everything else, could not ignore FF7's past numbers. I regretted the pick almost immediately after lockdown. I love FF7 to death, and I knew it was going to lose before the final. But I picked Mario 64 to do it instead of Melee, which I will regret forever. I knew Melee was going to do it, too, I just couldn't pull the trigger :'( This match overlapped with Undertale/Mario 64, because Allen decided mid-contest to make this round two matches per day when it was originally supposed to be one. It ended up working out, but in the future I don't think a contest format should be changed halfway through. A lot of people pick things based on the format. Imagine if during the 12 hour night/day stuff, Allen decided to just swap out night matches for day matches. Thankfully, it made no difference whatsoever in the match winners. Today had the potential to be insane for rallies, but it was kind of a dud on both counts. For this match, Melee won the board vote before FF7 quickly turned it around in the first few minutes. FF7 got a lead of 88 twenty minutes in, but then got thoroughly buried for the rest of the match as Melee revved up the rally engine. Final Fantasy 7, for whatever reason, is an extremely easy game to rally again. It was never a match after that, as Melee just stomped its way to a 56-44 win. That's an 18% turnaround in 11 years, with Melee not really having a reason to boost. FF7, though, had every reason to boost this contest. There was remake hype, Cloud-in-Smash hype, and even a bit of underdog hype. For three rounds, FF7 looked as strong as it ever has. It wasn't until the match against FF6 where it showed any weakness at all, and then Melee took full advantage to just smash FF7 to bits. It was a very unceremonious exit from this contest for the Final Fantasy series, with SMRPG being the only remaining Square representative after this match. It can't be overstated how angry people are about the episodic content announcement for the FF7 remake, and I think it's the biggest reason FF7's strength turned on such a dime mid-contest. People hate episodic content, and for good reason. Almost every episodic video game feels unfinished and lazy, and simply doesn't satisfy players very much. The only good one I can think of offhand is Half-Life 2, though I'm hoping people can provide more good examples. Wikipedia honestly gave really good definition and overview on this subject: The episodic announcement, paired with Melee being a beast this contest, spelled doom for Final Fantasy 7. I would have loved seeing the FF7 from rounds 1-3 in this match, but unfortunately it was not to be. ### Ctes' Analysis Today was a very sad day if you dislike rallies. There was no explosion this time. We just saw rallied games swallow the contest. It didn't help that we just had our last day without rallies or spillover yesterday. I don't think anyone doubted a single bit Melee would win easily today after what we saw last round. This round, where top games were to meet and we used to think we'd have some of our best matches, we just had two very dull ones instead. Next round would be exciting when the games were to probably stand on equal grounds, but if you had been excited to see a Chrono Trigger vs. Final Fantasy VII rematch today, you'd be very disappointed in this match. It was not the slightest bit interesting, before, during or after. I saw a few people arguing that this match were the one instance of the contest where rally spillover actually flipped a match because Undertale supporters would prefer Melee above Final Fantasy VII. It's probably true that they would, but I disagree and stand firm that spillover never flipped a match. There is no way Melee supporters would've simply let final Fantasy VII win this won, just look at what happened against GSC and Chrono Trigger. Melee would never lose this one. If it ever were to encounter any trouble whatsoever winning this match, Melee is apparently ridiculously easy to rally for and Final Fantasy VII is very easy to rally against. Even today people were celebrating because until now it had “Final Fantasy always wins”, a remark which VII is easily the main cause of, and now it wouldn't win. In reality, it won back in 2004, Cloud won in 2003 and Sephiroth won the villains contest that was practically designed to give him a free contest. Almost everything Final Fantasy has been screwed over by Pokemon, and to a lesser extent Snake and Tetris pieces for many years now, but people just don't forget its years of glory a decade ago. I'm actually surprised it took that long. Pokemon used to be anti-voted to death because of how huge it was when it came out, we're over that now. We actually saw Chrono Cross win matches this contest. Why can't Final Fantasy escape this? Well, at least that seems to have somewhat disappeared on out own site. Final Fantasy VII actually looked really good every single previous round in the contest. However, people not keeping up with GameFAQs contests for the past many years logically wouldn't know that. I just wish they were slightly less ignorant about it, though that's hopefully just a vocal minority. I think it'll be over in a couple of years, though it'll probably always be extremely difficult to rally for, yet extremely easy to rally against. Melee looked in top shape this round. It's difficult to believe an actual threat to Undertale could come at this point, but Melee was a huge threat. With what might be slightly less good rally capabilities, though it's hard to say, Melee is naturally leagues stronger than Undertale. We'd have quite the semi-final, which I guess is actually really nice considering they were both expected to both be really boring, just like the final match. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6171&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=121) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (6)Undertale vs (3)Super Mario 64 2015 _source: (6)Undertale vs (3)Super Mario 64 2015 (revid 84415)_ ## Results **Quarterfinals** Friday, December 11, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Contest Quarterfinal - **Match \#:** 122 - **Match Date:** Friday, December 11, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Undertale - 54.22% 71 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Undertale - 1.68% METTATON MATCH PICTURE!! Mario 64 was about to experience some gorgeous and beautiful Death by Glamour™!! This was the first Undertale match where it was truly the favorite in this entire contest (which is an absolute fact and anyone saying this contest ended after round 1 is being ridiculous, plenty of bandwagoned things have lost mid-contest), and it responded by treating us to the most "normal" match it had all contest. Normal as in there were reasonable trends and such, not Undertale playing dead for half the match before going nuts. Mario 64 was able to get the early lead much like its predecessors, but unlike all of the other Undertale opponents, Mario 64 got to experience the bandwagon/rally effect showing up very quickly in the poll. Mario's lead peaked at 1083 25 minutes in, then Undertale decided to open the gates now instead of after lunch. As a result, Mario's lead disappeared almost as quickly as it showed up. Undertale tied the match before 2 in the morning, then had to experience the new territory known as "building a lead overnight". Being something Undertale never really had to bother with before, it actually kind of sucked at doing it. It tried a few time to build up a lead overnight, but every time it did so Mario was easily able to come back and tie things. Undertale was very slow at lead-building, too. There was one lead overnight of 174 that took forever to get, which Mario smacked away ratther easily. Then after the games went 50-50 for a little while, the morning vote showed up. It favored Mario rather easily, and he was able to quickly build up a 200 vote lead. Undertale, actually feeling threatened, erased the entire lead in all of 30 minutes and started trying to build a lead again. And just like overnight, Undertale completely sucked at it. The game is just not a very good frontrunner, much like how the Animal Mother in Full Metal Jacket isn't worth being around unless the enemy is trying to murder him. Then he morphs into the best soldier on the planet. Needing grandes thrown at you at all times is a pretty rough life to live, though. After getting a lead of 300 in the morning, Mario was once again able to smack it away and tie things. Third time's a charm though, and it was right about here that Undertale decided to just end the match. Right around lunch is usually when Undertale gets going, and true to form, Undertale ratcheted things up. The afternoon vote and ASV were Undertale's to lose, and though Mario gave a valiant effort, Undertale would ultimately win by 2964 and preserve Mass Effect 3's spot in the LOL, X-STATS. It was a "normal" match to be sure, but it never truly felt like Undertale was going to lose. Every time it was threatened, it went full rubberband AI on us. But it also proved it's absolutely awful at being ahead early in a match, and that it needs to be threatened for it to show its true form. Even here when the afternoon vote showed up, it didn't truly feel like it was going nuts. It was about as normal an Undertale match as you could have gotten this contest, which allowed Mario 64 and the Mario series to exit with its head held high. No shame in this loss at all, and it showed that Mario 64 is the strongest Mario game on this site. I'm sure Melee's rally favored Mario 64 to a degree, but hey. The real reason for this match being close was Mettaton creating drama for the audience to drive up ratings! The Underground needs stars! ### Ctes' Analysis We finally reached the point of the contest where Undertale had cemented itself as an elite game from the get go, at least for the rest of this contest. It didn't need to wait for the ASV to blow up the poll and give it 300 vote cut updates. The other game wasn't naturally winning for a while as we saw the past three days, except for the first half hour. The match had some interesting trends though. Super Mario 64 didn't bow completely over from the start as I said. It had an insanely good start. Took it half an hour to be a lead over 1000 votes. That's with boosted votals of course, but being 60-40 in percentage at that point is nevertheless quite impressive. It took Undertale just an hour and fifteen minutes to take the lead, so it's not like the 1000 vote lead was worth anything, just somewhat impressive that it good. I'm not sure if it just took Undertale half an hour to get rallies going this time, or if anti-rally people were out at first. It's probably just that people needed to set up rallies and we're at a point where it's ridiculously easy to that, as it can be done just about any hour of the match now. Super Mario 64 actually looked pretty great the whole time though. The match is remembered as if Undertale just won naturally and easily, but Super Mario 64 fought like a king for quite a long time. Every single time Undertale has taken the lead in the contest so far, it never looked back. It just kept being in this beastly mode and destroyed its opponents. That did not happen this time. Super Mario 64 hung in there like a king. I know the lead change didn't happen during the day hours, but at this point of the contest, it's worth noting anyway. After taking the lead, Undertale slowly down and barely got above 100 votes before Super Mario 64 cut it down to a 3 vote lead again. Undertale then made a slightly better attempt, but Super Mario 64 stalled pretty greatly and after a while started cutting the lead down again… and took the lead back. It just seems crazy to me. I know Super Mario 64 far exceeds Undertale on natural strength, but at this point the whole internet seemed in on the rally. Melee would also briefly take the lead, but that was under completely different circumstances because of intense rallying on both sides. Super Mario 64 lost the lead again quickly. It repeated that another time before taking it and actually building something. Just taking it was crazy enough, but the third time it did it, it started building. Except for the votals it almost seemed like a normal match at this time. Obviously no one ever doubted the outcome of the match. Undertale was never gonna lose this one, but it's worth noting that Super Mario 64 hung in there. It exceeded its lead to above 200 votes this time in a bit less than two hours, then Undertale took the lead in three updates and ran away. But still, that's a long time to lead after having been down to Undertale. Even Melee can't match that. It doesn't even end here. Undertale very quickly build a lead of 200-300 votes, but then Super Mario 64 started cutting again. All the way down to taking the lead for a single update after winning one by 40 votes. Undertale was however ready when it needed to be, it took it back and finally ran away for good. Super Mario 64 made a similar attempt as before, when Undertale was a couple 100 votes ahead, and managed to win a solid amount of updates, but at this point of the day, nothing could be done, so Undertale took away for good and eventually won by almost 3000 votes, which despite the votals being very close to what they were in the RBY match and more than in the previous rounds, is still less than what Undertale won its previous matches by except against Mass Effect 3 for obvious reasons. The previous round, RBY vastly outdid Fallout 3 and Super Mario World because it's in a completely different league, but Super Mario 64 outdoing them is different. This Undertale is definitely stronger than the Undertale from previous rounds, but that's exactly why Super Mario 64 did this well. Undertale never being in danger didn't cause the huge and insane forces the previous matches had, that continue well being the lead change because of how big they were. Since so many people are in on the Undertale rally right now, that wasn't needed. This allowed Super Mario 64 to look really good throughout the match and in the x-stats despite facing Undertale in the quarter finals. There's still the votals though, they were just as good as the previous round, making Super Mario 64's performance seem a bit weird. I suppose we have gotten a certain amount of outsiders voting by now and they can't all like Undertale even if it's a vast majority, which explains some of it. Of course, Super Mario 64 also destroys Undertale on natural strength and the rallies have to got have some drawback. Even if it isn't very different from opponent to opponent, there's gotta be people being annoyed by such things and going against them in every forum. Nevertheless, Super Mario 64 did very well. It's clear as the day that RBY destroys all the Mario games, but the Mario gauntlet itself would actually still be a bit interesting if it ever happened. It seems that it's World \> 3 \> 64, but today makes Super Mario 64 look pretty good. Undertale is a bad source to judge it though. I guess we'll have to save truly knowing about their strengths compared to each other for next contest. As for Super Mario 64's run overall, it was never interesting, but unlike I guess any core Mario game in the contest, it actually got where it was supposed to, so that's something. It deserves it too, despite how I personally think it has aged poorly, it's a great game for it's time, and it still entertains greatly with speedruns in particular. Undertale's support at this point of the contest is too huge for us to really do anything about it. It was obvious that Ocarina of Time would have no hope against it at this point. Undertale's rallies were huge, it had the underdog status despite being a clear favorite each round since the first and now it was also getting support from all sorts of sources it shouldn't get support from. Apparently, it's named the only hope for beating Ocarina of Time and Final Fantasy VII and while I understand people thinking this, RBY and Chrono Trigger were more than ready to take those down and likely would at least beat Final Fantasy VII. Not to mention Melee now had the same kind of support and actually just beat Final Fantasy VII without blinking. No one notices or cares, Undertale is our “hope and savior” it seems. To me it would've been more fun to see the previous champions go down in close matches, which they likely would, instead of the blowouts they ended up doing. Just because no one expected it before the contest, it doesn't mean its exciting. There's also another thing helped Undertale. Every contest has some results that some gamers or fans of the contest greatly dislike. Chrono Trigger losing was the first great example of this. Another was Super Mario RPG beating Resident Evil 4. People compared it to when Golden Sun beat San Andreas back in 2010 with RPGFAQs being back again, a term that makes a lot of sense on a guide to games. When such happens, apparently Undertale has the luck of benefiting from it. People are like “screw this joke of a contest, might as well just let Undertale have it now” and that's a huge shame, which I'm saying because Undertale was at no point intended to be a joke entry and now it's getting support as a joke. I know among the ralliers there are people simply trolling and/or being jerks, but in it's core, it's just fans of the game and I'm sure most of people voting just saw a rally for a game they and clicked on it. In other words, the jerks are among the ralliers and not the rallied. Undertale had this contest more or less wrapped up now, however, it just faced the problem that most of its opponents had against it. It's tough to rally for a game in lead. This makes Undertale face an unexpected challenge next round in Melee, which has shown rally capabilities on similar levels and has little to no trouble rallying despite leading. Melee is also a lot stronger naturally. Undertale was thought to have it all wrapped out, but while it goes into the semifinals as the favorite, it did have one final challenge waiting. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6172&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=122) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs (1)The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past 2015 _source: (1)The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs (1)The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past 2015 (revid 84416)_ ## Results **Quarterfinals** Saturday, December 12, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Contest Quarterfinal - **Match \#:** 123 - **Match Date:** Saturday, December 12, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 60.41% 73 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 56.25% This was guaranteed to be the most boring match of the round, but it ended up being rather entertaining in its own way. These two games had only one had one contest poll together prior to this match. Know what happened? Link to the Past got SFFd into the ground and scored only 23% on Ocarina. I know LOL 4-WAYS and all, but an SFF beating is an SFF beating regardless of the format. So for Ocarina to turn around and not lay down the mother of all SFF beatings to Link to the Past... it filled its finals opponent with determination. No matter who it was, Melee or Undertale was going to embarrass Ocarina in the final. Are you guys really seeing how god-awful this match was for Ocarina here? I know Ocarina has had the occasional bad poll and contest loss, which will happen, but this might be up there for the worst contest poll that game has ever had. It's simply not a monster anymore. Letting Link to the Past break 40% on you after holding it to 23% only six years ago is a terrible performance, for several reasons. The biggest one of all is people are done with Link and Ocarina winning every contest (how Majora's Mask escapes this hate is beyond me, but I'm not complaining!), and it's quite possible that both will get anti-voted to hell from now on -- at least from the so-called outside voters this site hates so much. If it was up to GameFAQs, Link and Ocarina would win every match with 99% of the vote. That's why rallies and outside voters are a good thing. This site is stuck in the past and would rather never change, and much like how gay and interracial marriage would still be illegal if old-timers had their way. Every now and again you have to force people stuck in the objectively awful ways of the past to get over themselves, which I'll get into more during the final. ### Ctes' Analysis Obviously, this match was not interesting in any way whatsoever. A Link to the Past is an elite game on our site for sure, but it didn't really get to show that beyond perhaps defeating a large amount of rally spillover in the previous round? Though as the matches weren't going on at the same time, it didn't really have to fight it for long. There was pretty much no spillover influence in this match for some reason, which there somewhat should have been if A Link to the Past's previous match was any indication. One explanation is that Undertale didn't have have an explosion in votes near the end of the match this round, but had its support spread throughout the day better. It might also just be that the spillover voters have no preference in this match. You'd Ocarina of Time should have it, when Majora's Mask did against the same game, but Ocarina of Time is the big bad guy here among the ralliers, so perhaps it evens out a bit. Overall, it was nice having a Zelda gauntlet. Not because it provided interesting matches, everyone knew the outcome of them all, but because a Zelda dominant contest would be no fun. That said, I don't think it's necessary and should be done again. At least we saw that Majora's Mask had no reason to. It was fully capable of giving a great match against Super Metroid, a game which is a very strong here now but not among the greatest. A Link to the Past is certainly in the elite, it makes more sense with that game, but I would still rather see it face Final Fantasy VII or Chrono Trigger, perhaps RBY than be fed to Ocarina of Time next time. I know it got third last contest, but not only was that divided by era, it was also a different time. The Chrono Trigger rematch in particular would be fantastic to have. Besides, it's only two Zelda games that are truly dominant in these things, it's not much different from Cloud and Sephiroth in the character contests, or well, at least in the past. A Link to the Past was a contender for being the second strongest game on the site naturally behind Ocarina of Time. Ultimately, I don't think it is. There might be some SFF in this match, but from what we've seen in this contest, it's probably very minimal. I believe it's on level with Final Fantasy VII, another contender, but I do think RBY beats both, and if not, at least Chrono Trigger likely does. Having been snubbed of any interesting matches this contest, we have a few great set ups with A Link to the Past that can hopefully happen. As for Ocarina of Time, I don't think it disappointed today considering there's probably close to no SFF. It's a fine performance, and we know that it'll easily wreck in the semi-finals anyway. However, while there would be no way Ocarina of Time could take on a fully boosted recent indie in the finals, supporters of Ocarina of Time had gotten some renewed hope. And yes, those supporters actually exist. It's everyone against large outside rallies practically. The hope lies in Super Smash Bros. Melee, a new major threat to Undertale with extensive rally capabilities. The idea is that Ocarina of Time naturally SFF hammers Melee so badly into the ground that the rallies will make it close and Zelda drones can support too. Plus, Melee would've have the underdog status in the final match as Undertale would. Considering our SFF this contest and how dronish Melee supporters have been, I really don't think you should consider Ocarina of Time a favorite in the finals no matter what it faces there. Melee beat Chrono Trigger, Ocarina of Time would definitely need some heavy rally support to make it in the finals. That said, it would obviously improve its chances in the finals if it did face Melee instead, so it was the right thing to hope for if you wanted Ocarina of Time to reclaim the title. It's just that it still wouldn't be the favorite at all. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6173&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=123) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (9)Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars vs (3)Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater 2015 _source: (9)Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars vs (3)Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater 2015 (revid 84417)_ ## Results **Quarterfinals** Saturday, December 12, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Contest Quarterfinal - **Match \#:** 124 - **Match Date:** Saturday, December 12, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Super Mario RPG - 53.10% 61 for - 12 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Super Mario RPG - 3.05% Can't blame the picture for MGS3's loss here, because this was as fair as possible. Axem Rangers vs Salute is as badass as you can get! This was the match where the MGS series finally met its reckoning, though at least it would go down respectably. The writing was very much on the wall for SMRPG's win here, as it looked good for this entire contest while MGS... didn't. There really isn't a better way to put it. MGS looked awful, and it was lucky that divisions 7 and 8 were so weak, else it would not have a game in the final 8. Most of the Oracle picks were in SMRPG's favor, so we all knew what was coming. Mario RPG went out and did what it always does, which was easily win the board vote. Mario RPG is everything this site loves -- JRPGs, Nintendo, Square, SNES, the 90s -- all rolled up into one package, and really it was the ultimate example of how hard the 1990s dominated this contest. One could even say Undertale has a 1990s feel to it. SMRPG built up a 700 vote lead after an hour, and from here it was really only a matter of surviving the overnight vote, aka "why was I never released in Europe". SMRPG would eventually build up a lead of 930, which was more than enough to survive MGS3's overnight comeback attempt. MGS3 did a really good job overnight (and with Europe's help) to get the lead down under 500, but then the morning vote showed up. Mario RPG had dominated every morning vote leading up to this match, and it sure wasn't going to choke away a close match now. That 450 vote lead it had spiraled out of control in SMRPG's favor come morning time, and a close match turned into SMRPG's trends becoming a complete parody of itself. It really is hilarious to watch it go off during the board vote and morning vote every contest, and this year it was given a path where it could just laugh at all of its opponents come 8 am. Undertale may have stolen all the headlines, but SMRPG's run was equally impressive. I'm too lazy to look up past prediction percentages, but 3.05% of people picking SMRPG to make it this far has to be among the lowest prediction percentages of all time in these things. It also proved that SMRPG/Oblivion was the most important round 1 tossup we've ever had. There's no telling how far Oblivion would have gone in this contest, but the thought of it making the semifinals while Skyrim couldn't win its own division is hilarious. ### Ctes' Analysis With this match, Super Mario RPG officially made the run of the contest. You can award Undertale with the title if you want, but it really shouldn't have it when it was the favorite to win after round 1. Only a single guru had Super Mario RPG making the semi-finals. It was Kenri, and he almost won the guru because of it actually, though he fell just five points short of Dp. That doesn't matter though, MGS2, Mass Effect 2, The Witcher 3, Starcraft and GTAV all had people picking them to win this match too. A single user having Super Mario RPG through today means nothing in this regard, it was the miracle run. Ironically, Metal Gear Solid and Resident Evil 4 were the favorites to win this match and neither of them got here. Speaking of irony, how ironic is it that SBAllen constructs a weaker bottom quarter of the bracket with the intention of having a game making the semi-finals that is neither from Nintendo or Square only for the Square developed Nintendo character game to win that quarter? It's probably not a good thing for how the outside views our taste here. When such a miracle run happens, it's no wonder we get NintendoFAQs, SquareFAQs, RPGFAQs and NostalgiaFAQs labeled on us. This match has all those four at once. Personally, I love runs like this. They make the contest really exciting. Overly large rallies just don't provide that same excitement. They provide more chaos instead. That said, I do find it to be a shame that two of my top 10 games, Resident Evil 4 and Metal Gear Solid 3, had to be the ones to close to the miracle run. Despite Solid Snake having things handed to him for a couple of character contests, the Metal Gears Solid franchise sure doesn't catch any luck. Last contest, Metal Gear Solid games were the ones losing during the miracle run, which came from Shadow of the Colossus back then. Metal Gear Solid 3 managed to stop it with a night match. This time, that game gets to lose because of a similar run. Plus, overall, this has been a really rough contest for the franchise. At least Metal Gear Solid 3 managed to look really good two rounds before losing today. And hey, it's not so bad either! Super Mario RPG definitely had a bandwagon going on for it, it wouldn't have won this match naturally. It's not like Metal Gear Solid 3 was never in it either. It actually cut about 500 votes from the lead during the dead hours. Yes, Super Mario RPG is awful during that time, but cutting that much is still impressive. In the end, it was never close, but it doesn't look bad going on. Now, look at the top 4. We have two games that made it there by insanely large rallies, we have the defending champion and then we have Super Mario RPG. I don't think there's any doubt about what the odd one out there is. I know Super Mario RPG had some great bracket placement to push it there, but compared to top 32 in 2004 and top 64 in 2009, top 4 is pretty darn great. Plus, do you realize how much Super Mario RPG redeemed here? We had so much discussion about whether or not a Mario game would make the semi-finals and if so, which one it would be. Super Mario RPG was never in that discussion. The three big Mario games didn't make it there, although none of them disappointed. Super Mario RPG did though. Furthermore, Mario was bashed so undeservedly this contest. With the Galaxies losing earlier than the Cookie predicted them to, Super Mario Bros. 3 failing to beat RBY, Super Mario World letting Animal Crossing win updates against it due to rally spillover, Super Mario Maker being a joke and so on. Mario didn't catch a break early on despite the only one of those things actually being a bad performance from Mario's side was Super Mario Maker. Now, Super Mario RPG made the semi-finals. It's not a Nintendo game, I know, but it is a Mario game. Who developed it makes no difference in this discussion. You know what else the game redeemed? The SNES. You might say the SNES needed no such thing, but after coming off so strong early on, clearly being the most popular console overall on our Nostalgic site, the big SNES games were bested by the rally forces. Chrono Trigger and Super Mario World's potentials were cut short by rallies and A Link to the Past had its path set from the get go. Games like Super Metroid impressed a lot, so it's not like the SNES would've had a disappointing contest if Super Mario RPG didn't pull this off. We'd still remember it as the Year of SNES too. But in a contest remembered as that, you'd think one of the games should at least make the semi-finals wouldn't you? Well, I'm sure no one thought it would be Super Mario RPG, but it really did happen. We have a Mario game in the top 4 and we have a SNES game in the top 4. Obviously, Super Mario RPG stood no chance next round whatsoever, but that doesn't matter. Today it took the title as the star of the contest. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6174&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=124) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (3)Super Smash Bros. Melee vs (6)Undertale 2015 _source: (3)Super Smash Bros. Melee vs (6)Undertale 2015 (revid 84418)_ ## Results **Semifinals** Sunday, December 13, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Contest Semifinal - **Match \#:** 125 - **Match Date:** Sunday, December 13, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Undertale - 50.96% 50 for - 18 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Undertale - 1.17% So remember what I said about feeling weird with my Pokemon picture getting spread everywhere? This was even more nuts. That picture was everywhere during this match, and while I usually try to act humble about my match pictures, this was not going to be one of those times. That's about as good a picture as one could possibly get for this match, especially on the Undertale side. My lone regret is not finding a way to get Muffet in there, but try as I might it simply wasn't going to work. There was no way to fit her in. But even still, that's a damn good picture and all these Undertale fans kept thanking me for it from all over the internet, which was a really humbling experience. A cool experience and one I really enjoyed, not gonna lie, but still humbling. greatone can relate, because they were doing the same thing with him during the final. What an awesome fanbase to be a part of. What an awesome match to be a part of, too. Most contests, even bad ones, have a legendary match or two, and for Best Game Ever 2015, it was for sure this match right here. In the annuls of contest history, this is right there among the best matches ever. This has been a PCA of lists, so I might as well throw a list out there of Best Matches Ever™: There will be snubs according to people, but some of the things I snubbed were for good reason. Sure it was neat seeing Jill Valentine lose by 27 votes twice, but how much did those two matches really matter? Kefka/Vercetti was great, but it was only worth one point at the end of the day. I wanted to include Trainers vs FF7, but it was only a bonus third place match that meant nothing to the actual bracket. I picked these matches based on historical contest importance, hype leading up to the match, how good the match itself was, and how relevant the match is to contests now. There is real historical significance there. If people really want, I can make a separate topic after awhile to rank the best matches ever. I can defend any of these choices well, as well as any snub. Though if I did legitimately forget anything, please let me know. I am an idiot, so I might have just honestly missed something! The point here is after some reflection, this match to me solidly ranks as the \#2 match we've ever had on this site. Only Mario vs Crono in 2003 tops it. This match had everything. Hype, intangibles, controversy, the instant classic factor, Allen having to step in and calm the board down, and above all the match itself was amazing. So sit back, take a trip down memory lane with me with me, and enjoy the ride. In getting here, both games made one hell of a run. Melee had an easy win in round 1 against Portal, a match against Pokemon GSC in round 2 where the Melee fans rallied even though they didn't have to, and then am embarrassing win against Kingdom Hearts 2 in round 3. That match was so bad that it really seemed as if Melee would go out there in the divisional final and get pasted by Chrono Trigger. It did, but only for 20 minutes. Then r/Smashboards and pros got involved. One rally later, and Melee had survived Chrono Trigger. It rode the momentum right through Final Fantasy 7, which didn't have a chance thanks to the episodic de-hype killing its momentum. Its reward? Undertale, the biggest bandwagon these contests have ever had. Melee was equipped to handle it, but would have to give full effort for a solid 24 hours to actually win. Undertale was the clear favorite here. For Undertale, the journey and the rally was well-documented. It came back from down 9252 against Mass Effect 3, 6834 against Fallout 3, 3224 against Super Mario World, 7570 against Pokemon RBYG, and against Mario 64 it had a rather normal match and "only" came back from down 1083. The bandwagon and the rally increased in strength every round, to where its normal strength was on par with Mario 64's. Undertale and Melee were positioned to have an unbelievable showdown here, and if both games rallied at maximum capacity we could potentially look at new vote total records. With the stage set, the only thing left to do was to actually start the poll and have the match. Theme songs! Melee fans, and anti-rally fans, all viewed Melee as the final stand for the contest's integrity. You know, the same people that whined for 24 hours and acted dejected when Melee rallied to beat Chrono Trigger because reasons. The same people who are only anti-rally until a game they support is the one being rallied. The same people who wish the year was still 1999 and all brackets could be predicted with 100% accuracy. They felt that Melee was the true hero of this contest after trying to bury it against Chrono Trigger two rounds earlier. You know, the double standards crowd. Undertale's theme song was easy, because it was about to go full Megalovania on this bitch: When the poll started, the first thing of note is that vote totals were completely insane. Both games showed up ready for a fight, with Melee actually winning the board vote and taking a 100 vote lead. But right before the freeze, Undertale began its blowback. That 100 vote lead for Melee dropped down to 74 at the freeze, with total votes being at 1576. For reference, Undertale vs Mario 64 had 1161 votes at the freeze. Undertale/Pokemon had 1293. If ever the vote ceiling theory was to be tested, this was the match where we would find out. Come the next update, it was clear this match would be off the charts. Literally. Undertale won it by a score of 689-668, which cut the lead down to 53. Undertale took the lead next update by winning the update with a score of 749-643. Both games were going just totally nuts here, but Undertale had the clear advantage. There was no rhyme or reason to it, since both games were bandwagon bait and just rallying their asses off. The one cause for concern Undertale had is that last round against Mario 64, it proved it was an awful front-runner. It blew two different leads against Mario before finally putting the match away for good. Had it repeated that performance here against Melee, it would have been in a lot of trouble. Melee was clearly out for blood this match. After the next two updates were 721-687 in Undertale's favor, then 769-751 in Melee's favor, we got our answer to what Undertale's final form was. 2015-12-13 00:30 - Undertale 941, Melee 673 2015-12-13 00:35 - Undertale 924, Melee 653 2015-12-13 00:40 - Undertale 890, Melee 653 2015-12-13 00:45 - Undertale 866, Melee 800 2015-12-13 00:50 - Undertale 797, Melee 682 2015-12-13 00:55 - Undertale 775, Melee 645 2015-12-13 01:00 - Undertale 742, Melee 634 After one hour, Undertale went beyond any level Draven had and dropped a nuke on this poll. Melee was out there going absolutely apeshit, and it still got completely rolled. People reading this years from now may not truly appreciate how insane these numbers are, so I'll pull up the best two comparisons I've got. Record for most votes in a 1v1 poll (158527): Record for most votes in any poll (195360): An hour into this match, there were 17928 votes, which was on pace to completely shatter both of those records and just fly past 200,000 total votes. Those numbers are unheard of, and it's a testament to both games. Undertale might have been pulling in the craziest numbers we'd ever seen, but Melee wasn't exactly a slouch here. You have to tip your cap to the whole match, and on a personal level I was with toby fox. I was rooting for Undertale because it was the better story, but I would have been happy with either game winning and was really just rooting for the highest possible vote totals. tobyfox put this tweet out during the match that sums up my thoughts nicely. It was a true win-win for everyone: For the record, both tobyfox and the Melee pros that were tweeting all match shared the same "wow this is pretty cool" sentiment. There was very little vitriol on either side, which I wish the anti-rally crybabies would see as an example. There are times when the messenger counts, and this was one of those times. At this point, we were about to see how well Undertale could truly function as a frontrunner. It dropped the ball against Mario 64, and Melee during this match was a far, far cry away from Mario 64's strength from a round ago. For a few hours, Undertale responded far better than it had against Mario. As rally-filled as this match was, there were some clear trends here. After both games went completely nuts during Undertale's initial power hour push, both slowed down by about the same rate. I know it's hard to say that two games getting 400+ votes each update was slowing down, but compared to the early rush it really was true. During this time, Undertale slowly built its lead up to 1950. Normally this would signal the beginning of the overnight vote and drastically lower vote totals, but this was not a normal match. Undertale and Melee were both firing on all cylinders, with both games having massive social media presences on every site you can think of. Facebook, Twitter, tumblr, reddit, 4chan, you name it. This match had trends, sure, but it was all about the rallies. Both games had a steady stream of just insane numbers pouring in, but Melee felt capable of many more spikes on Twitter than Undertale did. It showed as much whenever a pro tweeted about the match, as there would be a noticeable spike in Melee's votes for 15 minutes. With Undertale, there was really only the @undertale_bot account, which was quite large, but still only one account. Overnight, Melee made one of those impressive comeback attempts you'll ever see. People always complain about rallied entrants ruining contests, but we have been rallies and bandwagons lose before. People have this assumption that every rallied contest entrant automatically wins, but it's simply not the case. Mario and Scorpion lost in 2002. Magus and Link lost in 2003. Starcraft and Frog lost in 2004. Diablo and Vincent lost in 2005, and Mario got blown out in the Tournament of Champions. 2006 doesn't feel like it had a bandwagon, but Snake probably comes the closest. He lost in the final. Zack, the Weighted Companion Cube, Master Chief, Pikachu, and L-Block all ultimately lost in 2008, in a contest specifically built for joke characters. Charizard, Missingno, and Solid Snake lost in 2010. The trainers lost in Rivalry Rumble. The only true bandwagons that finished the job were L-Block, Majora's Mask, Draven, and Undertale. These rallied/bandwagoned entrants are not guaranteed contest wins. Melee knew this, and sought to end things overnight. At 2:30 am, Undertale had a lead of 1920. Overnight, Melee shaved away at that lead very slowly. There was some back and forth, but the overall trend was in Melee's favor. It won some updates by 10 and others by 20 or so, but it was winning updates consistently even with the very high vote totals. Come the morning vote, Melee had shaved it down below 1500 and still kept going strong even as more and more total votes kept coming in. The two games kept fighting neck and neck with Melee having the slight trend advantage, and it kept shaving and shaving all morning long. Undertale did a lot of fighting back, but Melee would always maintain that slight trend advantage. I feel that had Melee fought the entire match like this and tried making its move as late as possible, it could have had a great chance of winning the match. As it would stand, Melee made its big move at 10:30 am. After hours and hours of 50-50, Melee caught a rally and started pulling in 500+ votes per update. A 1400 vote lead started disappearing really quickly, and though Undertale countered here, Melee kept pushing. This is very important to note. From the time Melee got that 551 vote update at 10:30 am until the time Melee took the lead, two hours passed. Undertale noticed, but Melee was still able to catch up and win. So I'm fairly confident that a late rally that started at 10 pm would have been a much better idea for Melee, especially late in a poll when there are less votes coming in. But Melee decided that this was the best time to go for the win, so it did. It got a 551 vote update and just kept right on rolling, and even though Undertale noticed the push and tried to counter, Melee was easily winning updates. While Undertale was sitting there pulling in 450-500 votes per update, Melee was pulling in 500-550. This trend continued all the way until lunch, where Melee would take the lead. The lead change update and the updates that followed had some insane numbers, so I'll just transcribe them here: 2015-12-13 12:35 - Melee 618, Undertale 488 2015-12-13 12:40 - Melee 644, Undertale 573 2015-12-13 12:45 - Undertale 673, Melee 598 2015-12-13 12:50 - Melee 552, Undertale 551 2015-12-13 12:55 - Undertale 655, Melee 578 2015-12-13 1:00 - Undertale 720, Melee 520 Other than the early parts of this poll, Melee held a lead for 5 updates. Undertale responded by pulling out some more completely insane numbers to take the lead back, and though I wish the final 11 hours of this poll would have been as good as the first 13 hours, it was not to be the case. Melee simply made its big move too early, and the biggest mistake it could have made here was taking the lead too early. Had it kept the match in the 1300-1500 range until 10 pm and then done this, it might have won. As is, it was impressive to take the lead but it accomplished little more than taking a baseball bat to a hornet's nest instead of a flamethrower. This whole match was like watching wasps (Melee) take on hornets, and the hornets (Undertale) would ultimately just get pissed off and bury Melee for good. Undertale was at its best this entire contest when getting pushed. The Mario 64 match showed us the model to actually beat Undertale, but organizing a late rally is really difficult. It was much easier to just try and get in as many votes as early as possible, and for whatever reason all this did was cause Undertale to go completely insane all contest long. Melee was the best example of this. Once Melee took the lead, impressive as it was in doing so, Undertale just went thoroughly insane and put this match on ice. At 1, the match was tied. For the rest of the match, despite all of Melee's best efforts, Undertale steamrolled the poll and would ultimately win by 4213 votes. It put all frontrunning talk to rest, it put Undertale in the final for a date with Ocarina of Time, and because everyone knew during the second half of the match that things were over, the rallies slowed down considerably -- that is, considerably when looking at the rest of this particular match. It's not like the two games stopped pulling in ridiculous numbers. The match would end with 176159 votes, which would be far and away our new 1v1 record. It didn't score higher than the 2007 final or break 200k votes, but this was still really impressive in its own right. Melee finishing with 85973 votes made it the most impressive loser we've ever seen, breaking Final Fantasy's record of 77702 in the series contest final. People were upset with Melee's loss, but really, the old cliché of a match like this having no losers rang true. The only real issue this match had, aside from the final 11 hours being a boat race, is that it wasn't the actual contest final. If it was the final with the same rallying circumstances involved, I have no doubts this thing breaks 200k total votes. But I sure won't complain about how things turned out. Two of my favorite games went out there and tore the house down in a match that will be discussed as long as this site is around, which is all I could ask for. A lot of people accused Undertale of cheating during the match after analyzing its trends, and to a man some of those updates did look a little weird, especially when you factor in geolocation stats. People brought up China, and for a fair reason. China's stats for all 7 Undertale matches: Mass Effect 3 81.82%, Undertale 18.18% Fallout 3 81.82%, Undertale 18.18% Super Mario World 58.06%, Undertale 41.94% Pokémon 57.78%, Undertale 42.22% Super Mario 64 48.72%, Undertale 51.28% Melee 28.14%, Undertale 71.86% Ocarina 56%, Undertale 44% Melee's match is a huge outlier, which is even more obvious in retrospect after looking at the final. Allen noticed these concerns, and stepped in by giving us a ton of info during and after the match. On cheating: "Undertale isn't vote stuffing. The biggest attempted vote stuff yesterday was a guy who used a bot to create 643 accounts and vote... for SSBM. He, like all other cheaters, were easily caught and their votes ignored. If we restricted voting just to Comcast users in the US (the most popular ISP, with around 15% of the total vote), UT wins 51.13% to 48.87%, which is extremely close to the actual result." On rallies: "I think the real issue and why people are upset is the fact that the rallies make it impossible to predict the bracket." -Black Turtle "...but that's the entire point." -Allen On traffic, and the accusation that the poll gets less votes because less people come here regularly (which is true regardless of any PR spin, though what's often missed here is that the site treats its users like children instead of not modding everything and letting users act like adults; this has chased a LOT of people away over the years): "That's because more AAA titles are coming out now, and the people working on guides are being spread more thin. Also in this age, people value quality over quantity. Back when something like FF7 came out, everyone wrote guides for it because it was THE game to play and there wasn't anything else to do. Now when FFXV comes out, there will be plenty of other popular games to play, too. Authors have also started shying away from creating a billion In-Depth guides because they aren't necessary. It's a shift in mindset and the way that gaming works now, not a sign of our impending doom. Also the traffic on the boards has increased Y2Y every year since they've existed. Again, everyone is more spread out amongst different boards and also the emergence of other forms of entertainment (i.e. YouTube, Twitch, etc) means that people aren't sitting on our boards 24/7 anymore. They are still just as active, if not moreso, just in smaller bursts. Thus you don't get the giant total of people active all at once, but the amount of posts made daily doesn't go down. I'll probably do some kind of information digest when the contest is over. Oh and to nip it at the bud before someone says it, the PotD gets fewer votes now because Google takes people directly to the content that they want to rather than taking them to our front door. Someone can search something verbose like "How do I defeat the Ninja boss when he has the Cloak of Onions?" and Google takes them right to the proper FAQ/board post/Answers post to answer that exact question and then they go back to playing their game. They don't need to poke around anymore so they don't end up seeing the Poll." I wish Allen had delved into the China geolocation, but this was as good as we were going to get. With him legitimizing the result, it cements the match as our solid \#2 of all-time, and had the final 11 hours been as good as the first 13, it would have been \#1. How about you guys? Where do you rank this match on the all-time list? ### Ctes' Analysis I was actually very hyped for this match! Normally, I'm not a fan of overly large outside rallies, because they usually make the match heavily lopsided and can't be countered. Today was a great exception though, because both sides would have heavy rallies, so it had excellent potential. Melee would without a doubt blow Undertale to pieces on natural strength, but that mattered nothing today. The match had a total of 176159 votes cast, which far exceeds what GameFAQs usually provides on its own. It's also not very far from the highest votals we ever had. What's more, even if it went into this match on natural strength, Undertale is completely different from round 1. It has gotten a large amount of support over the course of the contest. This bandwagon goes kinda unnoticed because of the large rallies, but it's there. The people supporting Ocarina of Time, regardless of why, believed to have a lot at stake today as well, because while beating Undertale was beyond impossible now, the idea was that facing Melee in the finals would give Ocarina of Time a chance in the finals due to how Ocarina of Time would smash Melee down with the biggest SFF hammer on natural strength and in a close match, Zelda can be rallied for. It's a nice thought, I'll give people that. However, I think people quickly realized today, that there would be absolutely no way that these huge rallies would fall to anything, be there enormous SFF or not. Which honestly, there probably wouldn't be this contest. Hope isn't necessarily bad, but sometimes there is really just no reason to hope. Melee's late rallies made us have doubts about the winner again for the first time since round 1, unless we count RBY's outside shot, but it was certain that a rallied game would win at this point. The finals is just not a time where you abandon ship, quite the opposite in fact! The hope would have to rely on people being incredibly butthurt over Melee's victory to go against it. I guess that wouldn't be completely out of the question considering it's pretty easy to not like the Melee supporters, but regardless, it would be very unlikely. The match started out with Melee being in the lead, likely because its favored on GameFAQs and has a great board vote on top of that. This lasted about 10 minutes where it 53 votes ahead. Next update it was 53 votes behind. Then Undertale went on a rampage. In that regard it didn't help that even some big Melee players were rallying for Undertale today. I think its supporters knew what they were facing because we saw nothing like this against Super Mario 64. The lead was very quick to exceed above 1000 votes, then slowed down but still clearly progressed. About two hours in the match had far passed the average votals in a round 1 match without rallying, just to put things in perspective. Undertale couldn't quite reach the 2000 vote difference before Melee finally got its game going. It stalled effectively, slowly cutting down Undertale's lead. It took it so long to get anywhere, but it was going there. Undertale had its rallies going, but Melee's were ever so slightly stronger at the moment. They spent many hours hovering around the 1300-1500 lead in particular. Then all of a sudden, after hours of small cuts and stalling, Melee cuts over 200 votes off the lead in one insane update. It finally found its best source of rallying I suppose. It continued this a couple of updates until it stood still around a 700 vote difference for a while again. The trends from here are actually rather weird. It was seemingly random whether an update would be close to even, a boost in Undertale's regard or a heavy cut from Melee. This continued down towards the lead change that Melee had attempted to get for almost half a day. With a very strong update, Melee managed to turn things around and went from being down 36 votes to being ahead 95 votes. Yes, it actually happened. Melee had over the course of many hours managed to slice Undertale's lead down all the way from +1900 in the semi-finals. Despite what was just about to happen, this deserves some recognition. Melee is a major threat to these contests now, it's a completely different beast now than it used to be, where it was a near elite game. It still is, don't get me wrong, but when it's able to easily provide an overly large rally, it's very dangerous. Undertale lucked out that its rally attempt actually went somewhere after 18 hours against a game that was just weak enough for Undertale to prevail. Melee pulled it out of its sleeve in a second. If another game contest happened right now, Melee would be a huge contender for the throne. Now, despite Melee's fantastic efforts over the past many hours, Undertale reacted to it like it meant nothing. After the lead change, Melee won another updated which extended its lead to 166. Undertale took that back again right away. Melee proceeded to win the next update by a single vote, and that was the last thing we saw of Melee. Seriously, it was so ridiculous. Undertale changed the lead again instantly and then won a bunch of insane updates in a row. Took it one and a half hour to gain what Melee had spent half the match cutting down. It just never looked back again either! It slowed down, yes, but practically kept gaining for the rest of match. It was over at this point. After a couple of updates I think every Melee supporter just gave up. There was no reason not to at least. If there ever was a time in the contest to believe that there was votestuffing in favor of Undertale, this would be the time. I unfortunately haven't looked into it enough because I simply don't personally believe it, but I completely understand thinking this looks fishy. It was 6:40 in the morning. I mean sure, that could be the time all the teenage girls woke up, but I really doubt it. Not to mention we can't pinpoint a particular demographic for the Undertale voters anymore. It's everyone by now. The comeback came instantly when Melee was in the lead. Right away. No hesitation. And it wasn't just no hesitation to stall, it was no hesitation to take the match by storm conveniently just when Undertale needed it. It looks utterly ridiculous. I suppose, it was just really easy to rally for Undertale at this point of the contest, at least when it was behind, but damn. A rally force as strong as Melee was taken down like it was nothing. Melee had a much smaller chance than we thought. I think Melee would've had to take the lead at just the last second for it to hold on to it. Otherwise, Undertale would take it back like it was nothing, just like it did now. That was quite anti-climactic after how the match had been until then, but I guess it can't be helped. Undertale would go into the finale bigger than ever. Ocarina of Time awaited as the last challenge, but without a doubt far from the biggest one. I'm actually rather glad Undertale won this one. I understand that most people disliking rallies would cheer Melee on today, since Ocarina of Time winning would be preferable to those people. However, let's get real, Melee would've won the final just as easily. I'd honestly rather have Undertale blowing Ocarina of Time to pieces. The people that started Undertale's rallies were at least nice people passionate about their game. Jerks came along the way, but that can't be avoided. The people that rallied Melee are definitely also passionate about their game, but they're not nice in the slightest bit. I can't mark down everyone of them as a jerk, I know, but the rallies I saw came from very arrogant people. Trash talking people that couldn't realize how their e-sport, Super Smash Bros. Melee was the most superior thing invented. Don't get me wrong, I love Melee and I haven't played Undertale, but such people can really make me want to cheer against the game I would otherwise cheer for. Of course, rallies in itself can do that, but it's sort of a moot point in this match. Melee had quite the impressive run beating my two favorite games the past two rounds. It's not like you should complain as a Melee fan about the run, but I'm sure many of them will. I fully understand the people being pissed off at how Undertale took the lead back, but all in all, Melee had a great run, much better than it should've had. Undertale fans might as well just start celebrating their victory now. As of this match, not a single small doubt was left that the Best Game Ever III title would be awarded to Undertale. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6175&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=125) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (1)The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs (9)Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars 2015 _source: (1)The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs (9)Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars 2015 (revid 84419)_ ## Results **Semifinals** Monday, December 14, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Contest Semifinal - **Match \#:** 126 - **Match Date:** Monday, December 14, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 62.43% 73 for - 0 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 48.02% In wrestling, heel offense is designed to bring the crowd down so that when the babyface makes his comeback, the crowd cheers louder. Even the most insane of crowds, no matter the sport, doesn't cheer full volume for the entire sporting event. In wrestling, this is controlled with heel offense. After that ridiculous Melee/Undertale match, we needed to relax for 24 hours. Ocarina was nice enough to finally show off its monster side and give us exactly what we needed. Mario RPG made a great run this contest, but it didn't have a prayer of beating Ocarina in this match and everyone knew it. There was lot of rally spillover that caused meteoric vote totals early on in this match, which tricked some people into thinking Ocarina had a chance in the final, but it didn't take long for vote intake to drop through the floor. That alone should have clued people in that Ocarina was done next round, as if we didn't already have a contest loaded with evidence of this. There were only two noteworthy things about this match. One is just a funny little comparison that has no real basis on anything, though it does shine light onto the CT vs Ocarina match that everyone wants to see: The other, more important notation is that Ocarina scored a doubling in the semifinal. This was a good note for Ocarina to hang its hat on before getting absolutely smashed, and it shouldn't go ignored. Silly formats aside (ie, I only care about 1v1 matches), here is THE LIST™ of every match in a semifinal or final that was at least a doubling: The common denominator there is obvious, though I'm confident two of those matches were SFF beatings. And while I loved SMRPG's run, it clearly got this far because divisions 7 and 8 were both extremely weak. Any one of a dozen games could have also made this run, though it does not diminish the accomplishment. Had SMRPG been released in Europe, the case could be made that it's a top ten game on this site. As-is, it's probably in the 15-20 range. ### Ctes' Analysis It'd not that anybody was surprised at it, but could we possibly have a more boring semi-final that this? I mean, we knew it would be regardless of what game ended up here from the moment the bracket came out, but man. It makes the decision to cut the contest 6 days shorter by having two matches run at the same time in the division finals and quarterfinals even more stupid. I mean, this match would still be boring, but the decision was made so that the contest wouldn't lose its pace and we'd safe the standalone matches for when it truly mattered. Knowing about the spillover we had made the decision a pretty bad idea at first, but look at what's left! Allen lucked out that Melee apparently was a rally force, because when he made the decision both semifinals and the finals looked to be incredibly boring one-sided matches. Now just for the heck of it, let's look at what some of the matches that wasn't judged exiting enough for a standalone match. Chrono Trigger vs. Super Smash Bros. Melee Pokemon RBY vs. Undertale A Link to the Past vs. Majora's Mask Super Mario RPG vs. Resident Evil 4 Metal Gear Solid vs. Metal Gear Solid 3 Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. Final Fantasy VII Undertale vs. Super Mario 64 Super Mario RPG vs. Metal Gear Solid 3 Furthermore, Allen himself was excited for the Final Fantasy showdown, so it may as well be there. The Ocarina of Time matches are always boring and Skyrim vs. Super Mario 64 was so too, but otherwise we had a bunch of interesting stuff there. Really don't believe it was worth cutting the contest short six days. It's actually somewhat unfair to change the contest structure at this point too, because it might actually have changed people's predictions that certain games were up at the same time when they thought they wouldn't be. Especially when the payoff is just going on Christmas break six days earlier. This match though, had a full 24 hours of waiting for the inevitable utter destruction of the defending champion. It's the perfect ending to the story of the indie game that swallowed the contest little by little, though if you don't like rallies, it'd probably be far less painful having Ocarina of Time run into Undertale before the finale. Though when Ocarina of Time had a path that allowed it to double its semifinal opponent and have almost half the people predicting it to reach the finale, that's could have only been avoided if Undertale had been in the other half of the bracket. I'm pretty sure Ocarina of Time would've been favored way less to reach the finale in the other half. I mean, it would easily be the heavy favorite, but to win the contest, you gotta take some hot upsets and what is more hot than correctly picking the favorite to lose? Too bad all the games with such potential were in the other half I guess. Though before Undertale happened, it was a good idea to allow them to face each other before the Ocarina of Time loss, so no reason to complain about that. Successful allies are terribly hard to predict beforehand. Now, it has gotten its praise before, but Super Mario RPG deserves a final applause. Today, three games were left in the contest. The King of Rallies, The King of GameFAQs and Super Mario RPG. That's really impressive. My perspective is super unfair though. Not only is it unfair to other semifinalist, but Super Mario RPG also had the easiest quarter by miles. Let's look at the other three. I'm certain it would at least lose to the following games no matter how much bandwagon it had caught: Chrono Trigger Super Smash Bros. Melee Pokemon GSC Final Fantasy VI Final Fantasy VII Super Mario Bros. 3 Pokemon RBY Undertale Super Mario World Super Mario 64 A Link to the Past Super Metroid Majora's Mask And let's be honest, in a round 1 match, it probably also at least loses to these: Final Fantasy X Kingdom Hearts II Wind Waker Fallout 3 Skyrim Twilight Princess Final Fantasy IX Kingdom Hearts There are more that could possibly beat it, even if Super Mario RPG would be the favorite. You never know for sure, but I'd say it's likely to lose to all those and it's a lot, so it lucked out big time reached the semi-finals. That's the beauty of our contests though. If we created a 100% fair bracket where the top 16 would literally be the top 16, things would be a lot less boring. Despite ending in a very boring semifinal match, Super Mario RPG entertained us big time with a great run, where it redeemed the Mario franchise and the SNES alike. It was easily overshadowed by Undertale at the time of the match, but Super Mario RPG deserves a ton of recognition. Though not through Nintendo, Mario manages to snag a semifinal spot once again. With this match, the Year of SNES ended. Overall, a very beautiful for year for that console. I knew it has a special place in the place of gamers that were alive at its time and truthfully, some of the best games ever are on it, but I didn't expect it to be as successful this contest as it has been, where even its weakest games came fourth and looked great. Not a single SNES game looked bad, with perhaps only Final Fantasy IV not being remarkable. Such a fantastic year of the console, that despite how the bracket was constructed, it's really weird to believe that the SNES game that got the furthest was none other than Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6176&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=126) • **Previous Match**       • **Next Match** --- ## (6)Undertale vs (1)The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 2015 _source: (6)Undertale vs (1)The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 2015 (revid 84420)_ ## Results **Finals** Tuesday, December 15, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis - **Round:** Contest Final - **Match \#:** 127 - **Match Date:** Tuesday, December 15, 2015 - **Oracle Expectations:** Undertale - 51.45% 63 for - 8 against - **GameFAQs Prediction:** Undertale - 0.91% First and foremost, that Asgore picture is the best match picture in contest history and it's not particularly close. I'd get into the symbolism of it, but tumblr handled that well enough: There were some great images floating around during this match, and I saved the best of them so that they could be immortalized here in the PCA. Any prayer that Ocarina had of winning this match died before it ever began once Kotaku put this article up during the Ocarina/SMRPG match: On top of that, r/Undertale "banned rallies" with a sticky topic at the top of the subreddit asking people not to beg for votes on GameFAQs. It all added up to Zelda getting absolutely smashed right from the start, with numbers and vote intakes that were even higher than what Draven was pulling off during the finals two years ago. I want to point out that the final that year happened during worlds, with a rally topic that made it to the top of r/all. Undertale at the beginning of this poll pulled in much higher numbers than even that. This match was not a match at all. It was a coronation; the crowning of a new contest paradigm that is here to stay. The entire internet showed up to vote for Undertale during this final, much like how it did for Draven in 2013, L-Block in 2007, and Cloud in 2003. You don't see blowouts like this in the finals very often, and for that reason the actual Undertale comparison here is very apt. Undertale spoilers are here for those who haven't played the game yet, which won't translate to the wiki but if you're reading this years from now and still haven't played Undertale that's your own fault. If Melee was Sans, Ocarina was Asgore. Sans was the true final boss, while Asgore just got ran the fuck over. For that reason the theme for this match was obvious: By percentage, here are the only 1v1 finals matches that were bigger blowouts than Undertale \> Ocarina: Undertale actually threatened to stay above 60% for quite a long time during this match, but Zelda's day vote helped it save some shred of dignity in losing so badly. It even managed to win a single update... by one vote. Good job, Zelda. We're very proud of you. I'm fairly certain Melee would have had a similar performance to Undertale in this match insofar as the entire internet just beating the shit out of Ocarina for 24 straight hours, but as it stands Undertale got to be the game enjoying the benefits of bandwagon overflow here in the final. With that being said, I do want to make sure I give Zelda the proper respect here. As much as I enjoyed Undertale winning this contest, and as much as I've enjoyed the Zelda series getting more and more hate due to the LAW, it's the boogeyman of these contests for a reason. Like I said a long time ago during this PCA, Link and his series are the New England Patriots of these contests. The Patriots have 4 rings, should have 6 if not for the Giants making two miracle catches, and really would have 7 had Troy Brown remembered to run an out route in the 2007 AFC title game. When you beat the Patriots, you barely beat them or you get really lucky. Link is the same way. You either barely beat him, get a huge rally on your side, or get very lucky. We've had 16 contests in the history of this site. Link, in some form or another, has won 10 of them: Summer 2002 (characters), Summer 2004 (characters), Summer 2005 (characters), Spring 2006 (series), Summer 2006 (characters), Summer 2008 (4-way characters), Summer 2009 (4-way games), Winter 2010 (characters), Game of the Decade (games), and Rivalry Rumble (2v2 characters). He could easily have more titles, but when he loses, he usually loses due to an insane rally or weird circumstance. Link even got to experience what it felt like to be on the good side of a rally when Majora won Game of the Decade. The man really does always win and has done it all. Because I've enjoyed LISTS™ during this PCA, I present my final list. Contests that Zelda did not win, aka Link's losses: The villains contest can be thrown out, since was designed for Sephiroth to win and to set up the Tournament of Champions (an increasingly stupid idea with each passing year). In 2003, the entire internet ganged up on Link as backlash for Wind Waker and gave Cloud the win. In 2007, the entire internet ganged up on Link because L-Block winning this contest was such a cool story bro. In 2013, the entire internet ganged up on Link as Draven's rally mowed over this contest. In 2015, the entire internet ganged up on Link because Undertale's run was the much better story and finishing the job was a necessity. Of those 6 Zelda contest losses, 4 were due to outside rallies. 1 was due to Sephiroth being handed a contest for free. The only legitimate contest loss Zelda has ever suffered was in 2004, when Final Fantasy 7 beat Ocarina in a match that was never in doubt. And even then, one could make the excuse that the site redesign mid-contest shrank vote totals and messed with a lot of results. Had that match happened under the old site design with higher vote totals, who really knows what happens? Point being, outside rallies are the only thing stopping Zelda from being 14-2 in contests. You are objectively wrong if you think rallies are bad for contests, because if contests didn't have them, I'm confident we would no longer have contests. Not without Link/Ocarina/Zelda getting banned or having dumb stuff like Tournament of Champions, anyway. Anti-rally people who only want the status quo are objectively in the wrong, and are just as bad as anyone supporting any dumb law of dumb status quo. You just are. Do you really want Zelda going 14-2 in contests? I don't. You nutjobs can sit there and act like the 96% that refused to join the Revolutionary War. I'll continue to stay here and fight for what's right. That will sound like an extreme analogy, but it really isn't. History always changes thanks to vocal minorities with the moral high ground. Only 4% of people supported the Revolutionary War. Just last year in 2014, gay marriage was illegal in most states. And just six years ago, no game releaed after 1999 would have ever won a GameFAQs contest. There are millions of examples out there of people being forced to change their ways to make humanity better. All you anti-rally people who want to prop up the 90s at the expense of everything else are in the wrong, and you are going to continue being on the wrong side of gaming history. We continue to have contests because of rallies making them more fun. If you disagree, go look at that Zelda contest list I just posted. 14-2. You are objectively incorrect and will continue to be objectively incorrect. If such rallies have to happen every year until my position is seen as the majority view, so be it. “In the beginning of a change the patriot is a scarce man, and brave, and hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds, the timid join him, for then it costs nothing to be a patriot.” -Mark Twain Hate on my position all you want, but you'll be on my side of the fence eventually. I'd support even things like Shadow of the Colossus or Cory in the House rallying to win contests. They make contests more fun and don't mean "lol Zelda wins" every year. And don't even pretend you people wouldn't have all supported Melee winning this final instead of Undertale, even after shitting on it for beating your precious Chrono Trigger. You either support all rallies, or none of them. Picking and choosing based on psychological standards is just as bad as hating them all, if not worse. Good games were made after 1999. Try playing a few! I love the 90s too, don't get me wrong, but we're two decades past it now and gaming has improved. Really. It has. Come on over to my side of the fence, gentlemen, it's nice here \<3 ### Ctes' Analysis Remember back after Mass Effect 3 lost when people thought Ocarina of Time had a chance to stop Undertale? I'm sure even Heroic Mario had stopped believing that Undertale could lose the finale at this point, but man, Ocarina of Time was never even in the match. It looked like the whole internet came raging forward in a very similar manner to the end of L-Blocks marvelous run back in 2007. Pressing F5 up until the freeze was particularly brutal. Undertale was actually tripling Ocarina of Time briefly, though at the time of the freeze Ocarina of Time had avoided being doubled. The final score doesn't look like that much of beatdown, but the vote difference was insane. It was above 1000 at the freeze and above 7000 after an hour. In less than two hours the vote difference had five digits, in other words, it took no time to reach above the biggest lead a loser has ever had and it was Undertale itself that came back from being down so much. The votals were looking to set an all-time record too! Ocarina of Time stood absolutely no chance today. It sounds weird to say, but the match was over before it ended. Seeing posts like “At least OoT is avoiding the doubling” and “Can OoT even make a cut all” all over board was very absurd and is very likely to be one time experience. A comeback would never happen, but no one even bothered trying. Undertale was the absolute worst rallied opponent Ocarina of Time could've faced I think and obviously the finale is the worst time to do so. I think people would've tried had it been a different game though. Say League of Legends actually had made it in and got rallied heavily. Ocarina of Time would probably lose, but people would be trying to rally and successful rallies could probably be made. I'm sure it would have ended in a similar way to the 2013 finale where Snake fought bravely, but still lost easily. Undertale is a recently released indie game. It's huge on the internet right now, but it's still an indie game. It would be extremely difficult to get people to vote for the best reviewed game of all time against an indie game to begin with, but in the finale? Forget it. Some games have fanbases that would be dedicated enough to make some kind of attempt here, but they would still fail horribly! The further we got into the contest, the more fun it was to root for the “underdog” as a recently released indie game would always be viewed as. Whatever Undertale faced in the finale would go down big time. Ocarina of Time not encountering Undertale earlier makes it far more brutal though. The defending champion that people are tired of getting too much praise is the perfect final opponent for Undertale with the run it had. It's a bit ironic that Ocarina of Time ended up doing worse on Undertale than every single other opponent it faced, but no shame in that really. Only Melee and RBY would have a chance at doing better at this point. Raw x-stats can't be taken seriously when Undertale had a noticeable increase in strength every single round. As the match went on, Undertale slowed down. Its lead was so big that there was no point in doing anything. Ocarina of Time naturally recovered quite a bit in percentage as a result of this, but Undertale kept winning fairly huge updates for most of the time though. In the morning there were some close calls and this was the most fun part of the match. When Undertale started only winning updates by 10 votes or so every now and thne, we were really rooting for Ocarina of Time to win an update. In relation to what I said earlier, seeing posts such as “Will OoT actually win an update?” is really unusual too. Occasionally, when Ocarina of Time only lost an update by those 10 votes, we got really hyped, then it lost the next one by 70 or so usually, but it was still fun. Then at the 10:30 mark, it happened. Ocarina of Time made a cut. It made a single vote cut. This would be the only time during the whole match where Ocarina of Time cut, but it happened. Ocarina of Time actually made a cut. It sounds so unreal to put it this way. Even in some really one-sided matches, it happens that the losing game wins an update a few times doing the match. Ocarina of Time of all games was getting beaten down so badly that we were celebrating when it cut a single vote off of Undertale's lead. It sounds rather silly to get so excited about the lead changing from 14835 to 14834, but why go out and whine about a rally force winning once again when we can have fun this way instead. When you've been a regular here for a long time, you've seen Zelda dominate all sorts contests. At its worst, it gets second place. In the 2004 it had the second strongest entry though fell short of the finale due to bracket placement. Still, second best is its worst. Despite the beat down today, it's probably still the second best the bracket has. The strongest Zelda entry in the contest has a match where it's not even a certainty that it'll win an update, that's just a moment to enjoy. Despite disliking the way it lost, it was fun to have Ocarina of Time be such a massive underdog as it was today. It might just never happen again. While the votals were on track to reach a new high, that didn't happen, and it didn't come close either. With 156604 total votes cast, there was still a while before we would have reached the insane 195360 total votes the 2007 finale got. I guess it's partly because our average votals were higher back then, but also that the match back then, while never in doubt, was at least more intense that this. Link lost, but wasn't getting destroyed that badly by L-Block. He even cut a solid chunk of L-Blocks lead during the middle of the match. Cloud also held up like a king back then. L-Block still wins, but I'm sure the match would've been had Cloud and Snake not been there. Today was never close, so at some point there was no point in spreading the match further. There was absolutely no way Ocarina of Time could come back, so why bother. That's likely the main reason as to why this match didn't come close to the 2007 in votals despite being on track to beat it at first. Undertale was the favorite to win the contest the moment it took the lead from Mass Effect 3 back in round 1. While people said it made it more interesting who would win the contest, I don't think it did, though at least RBY and Melee proved to be worthy opponents, so the run wasn't boring. Undertale was definitely gonna do the same each round. When a rally is big enough to swallow the average GameFAQs votals, there is little to be done. The opponents need to be able to rally themselves then and that's practically impossible against Undertale. Plus, it's still a major challenge even if you can counterrally, as we saw in the Melee match. Despite being in a tough division, Undertale had excellent bracket placement to pull this off. Had its round 1 opponent just been ever so slightly stronger than Mass Effect 3, the miracle run would never even begin. Its following opponents were just strong enough to provide seemingly interesting matches and allow the word to be spread. Had RBY and Melee encountered Undertale a bit earlier than they did, it likely loses to them as well. It's an endless discussion, but I think RBY beats Undertale in round 2 and Melee as far as the division finals. The contest itself came at a perhaps time for Undertale. Perhaps just half a year later, it wouldn't be hot enough to pull off the round 1 upset anymore. With that said, Undertale's rally was at least entertaining and interesting. While it did practically swallow our contest, it was usually behind for a while every round. It would've lost a 12-hour match the first four rounds if we still had those. That made it seem like less of a beast, unlike Draven who just blasted the poll to pieces right away. Whether or not you enjoy large rallies, you gotta admit this was more fun to follow than Draven's run. It's a huge shame that a major reason as to why people jumped on the rally was that it would make the winner less obvious though. Perhaps we couldn't know, but seeing Chrono Trigger or RBY make a real run would've made the finale way more interesting. Melee also got in the way of this in the end, so the close Ocarina of Time finale was far from happening. But still, Chrono Trigger vs. Ocarina of Time would've been such a fantastic finale. It's a real shame that didn't happen. Regardless, congratulations to Undertale for officially claiming the title of Best Game Ever on GameFAQs, succeeding Final Fantasy VII and The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time. Personally, I don't think it deserves the title. It's great for what it is, a short indie game, but it's not the best game ever. It has some solid humor and a unique battle system, but it's not the best we've seen. It's main appeal is definitely how every little action has such a big impact. It does this better than most games that works this way and naturally has a high replay value because of this. It definitely exceeded what you can expect of it, which made it big when it came out, just in time for the contest. That said, I doubt it would've gotten the same internet appeal if a major game developer created it. Don't get me wrong, Undertale is a great game, and obviously not everyone can agree on what the best game ever is, but I believe it's worth throwing an opinion out on. In future contests, Undertale will likely be stronger because of having won this one than it otherwise would. It's natural strength in the future will definitely be greater than what we saw it was back in round 1. I don't think it'll be near elite though. It'll likely be similar to L-Block in character battles after its victory. It'll be a noteworthy game in the bracket that can potentially win a couple of rounds, but when put against a strong entry, it'll lose. I really doubt people will care to rally for it again. Plus, being the defending champion, such a rally just wouldn't have the same appeal. Perhaps if Melee had won, it would just repeat the same progress in future contests, but the way the Undertale rallies went, this is definitely the only time the game will win. I do find it to be a shame that twice and a row now our contests have been decided based on what entry can get a strong enough outside force. More voters are great, but when they're not even sticking around and they're all coming from the same fanbase, I prefer just having the usual voters around. Undertale definitely improved votals overall, but the amount of people that stayed for non-Undertale matches were still relatively small. Back when L-Block won, it was fun because it was so unusual at the time. Plus, it was a Tetris block, everybody and their mother has player Tetris. It wasn't a particular fanbase that carried it, it was just a very large bandwagon. Also helps that L-Block never really swallowed a match the way Undertale and Draven has done. It stayed a lot more consistent every match. Either way, it's fun one time, but I find it tough to enjoy when it's the standard. I can see why some people do enjoy it, but I personally prefer to have entrants fight on a more equal ground than how it was in Undertale's matches. This is obviously not the exciting finale that one could have hoped for, but honestly, the finales never really are, so it's not good. The great 1-vote cut definitely marks the highlight of match. It's hilarious that Ocarina of Time only made one single cut and that said cut was by a single vote. Perfection right there. I suppose it's the perfect end to an underdog run, if you want to call this run that. The board wasn't as chaotic as it had been throughout the contest at least, mainly because by far the most people had accepted Undertale's victory at this point. I can say that despite not being too found of the way Undertale won, I had more fun doing this finale than I've had going most finales. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6177&num=2) - [Oracle Match Results](http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=127) • **Previous Match** --- ## (3)Super Smash Bros. Melee vs (9)Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars 2015 _source: (3)Super Smash Bros. Melee vs (9)Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars 2015 (revid 82393)_ ## Results **Bonus** Wednesday, December 16, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis "Third Place Battle" Allen was nice enough to give us 4 simultaneous bonus polls after this contest, and while none of the matches were particularly good, bonus polls is always better than no bonus polls. The first bonus poll was a third place battle between Melee and Super Mario RPG, which was over in about 10 seconds and stayed at 63-37 for the entire 24 hour time period. The fun there is that there wasn't a massive percentage bleed overnight by SMRPG, which suggests that these games have identical trends. This match meant little outside of a posthumous third place title, though it was nice to see Melee beasting one final time this contest. It also made for some very fun comparisons. In 2004, Chrono Trigger scored 67.06% on Super Mario RPG. In this contest, Ocarina scored 67.38%. Those results were both rally-free, and were very close to what Melee got here in the bonus poll. I know bonus polls are often wonky, but this was close enough to what CT and Ocarina got to legitimize Melee in my view. The Chrono Trigger win wasn't some fluke, and a hyper-rallied Melee clearly would have annihilated Ocarina in the final had it gotten past Undertale. For me, who lists Melee as the second-best game ever made behind Final Fantasy Tactics, it was an awesome consolation prize. ### Ctes' Analysis The first of our four bonus matches, labeled “Third Place Battle”. This match was obvious and really boring, but I don't really mind as much as some of the other bonus matches, because I don't feel any potential was wasted here. It feels completely fair that the two semifinal losers got a bonus match and it might as well be against each other. I'm not sure if the Melee fanbase would rally in a bonus poll, but I wouldn't be surprised, and Super Mario RPG wouldn't have won any bonus match either way. Its inclusion in itself is enough recognition. I wonder how many people would have predicted that out third place battle would be between these two. It's almost certainly less than 1%. Only slightly less than 7% predicted Melee to reach the semi-final and only 3% predicted Super Mario RPG to reach that point, so the amount of people that had both things happened and had both games losing has to be very minimal. The final score today looks really nice, as it's just whole numbers. I know a bunch of users would've rather seen different bonus polls than the ones we got, but it's honestly just rather nice that we got some additional matches. They're more fun than our typical bonus polls. It didn't feel like a bonus poll just to have a bonus poll, which the battle of Links or Link vs. Santa Claus felt like. Allen seemed to try to actually try to create something interesting. Despite no one having doubts about this one, it's nice that we now have an official third place in Melee. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6178&num=2) --- ## (1)Chrono Trigger vs (1)Final Fantasy VI 2015 _source: (1)Chrono Trigger vs (1)Final Fantasy VI 2015 (revid 82394)_ ## Results **Bonus** Wednesday, December 16, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis "The Fallen \#1 Seeds" I'm on such autopilot and have done so many writeups for this contest that I actually had to go and look up the seedings for these two games, in a poll called "The Fallen \#1 Seeds". It's true. Allen was nice enough to give us 4 simultaneous bonus polls after this contest, and while none of the matches were particularly good, bonus polls is always better than no bonus polls. The second bonus poll was Allen choosing two 1 seeds to face each other. Chrono Trigger's selection made sense, but FF6's inclusion here seemed a bit odd. For maximum possible variety given his poll titles for the bonus matches (third place, 1 seeds, death by rally, and 2009 rematch), he should have replaced FF6 with Skyrim here. It would have actually given us a western game in the bonus polls, and we would have seen Melee, SMRPG, Chrono Trigger, Skyrim, Pokemon RBYG, Mario 64, FF7, and Ocarina. That prevents the same series from popping up twice, and gives you a fighter, two SNES RPGs instead of three, a western RPG, a Pokemon game, a Mario game, a Zelda game, and a Final Fantasy game. FF6 being here is really the only bonus poll choice I took exception to, but still, it's just a bonus poll and I'll always appreciate getting some bonus polls. Chrono Trigger predictably smashed FF6 here, and it's a wonder this wasn't a massive SFF beating on par with what always happens when FF7 and FF8 are in a poll together. It made for a neat comparison though, as FF7 scored 60.05% against FF6 in the actual contest. It really gives a lot of validation to those who think Chrono Trigger would beat FF7 1v1, and I agree with that prediction. I don't agree that Chrono Trigger would beat Ocarina (or even Pokemon RBY) 1v1 however. Go look at the writeup for the final and please tell me how Chrono Trigger qualifies as a game that could beat Zelda and win a contest. Chrono Trigger is strong, but it takes the contest version of a natural disaster to prevent Zelda from winning. Chrono Trigger doesn't qualify. If nothing else, natural disasters are what always buries CT. The adjusted stats people keep throwing around have CT at 50% alone, which I can respect the effort for but I thoroughly disagree with it. I'd like to see a version of those stats with CT, Ocarina, and Pokemon RBY all adjusted to 50%. Or at least CT and Ocarina both adjusted to 50%. Personally I think Ocarina gets at least 53% bare minimum on CT 1v1, and probably more like 55-60%. But hey, not my stats or my adjustments. You guys all know my thoughts on x-stats by now, anyway. Fun for comparisons and fun to mess with, but they are as unreliable as they've ever been. As yoblazer said and it's worth repeating: contests don't work that way anymore. Every match is its own. ### Ctes' Analysis The second of our four bonus matches, labeled “The Fallen \#1 Seeds”. This is the one of bonus matches I felt was the biggest waste. I know we should be happy to just have had bonus matches and I am, but I do also think that now that we have them, we should make the most the most of them. Chrono Trigger was more or less the game we wanted to see in a bonus round match, where it could finally pitted against an elite game despite not being an “official contest match”. That opportunity was wasted big time. There was no doubt that Chrono Trigger was leagues ahead of Final Fantasy VI. Even taking a simple look at the contest results shows that. Chrono Trigger almost beat Melee, which easily beat Final Fantasy VII, which easily beat Final Fantasy VI. Usually, it takes more than that to get a real read of the games' strengths, but that's really all that was needed here. I think perhaps Allen still regards Final Fantasy VI a bit too high, which is weird considering its match against Final Fantasy VII ended up being as boring as it was. Putting Chrono Trigger against another game would've just been a lot better. A Link to the Past preferably, but as I understand it, Allen needed to have a better reason for pitting games against each other than that experts would have like the match to happen. A Link to the Past wasn't a fallen \#1 seed and I admit I don't know what I would label that one as myself. However, Super Mario Bros. 3 would've still been a better choice. Don't know if Allen thought it lost too early or whatever, but it would. He could also just put Chrono Trigger against RBY in the death to rally match, that would actually make sense. Putting against Super Mario World or Super Mario 64 also works. I mean, it would be a clear favorite against Super Mario 64 too especially, but at least it wouldn't have been as obvious as this one. It would at least be strong entities from two different companies, and we'd be able to compare to 2009 where Super Mario 64 knocked Chrono Trigger out of the contest to see how much Chrono Trigger has actually gained. However, now that Final Fantasy VI did get a bonus match, we actually have an idea of how strong it is using Chrono Trigger. It was clear by now how little SFF matters. Final Fantasy VI is clearly stronger than Final Fantasy X now, which I'm quite certain wasn't the case at Best Game Ever II, and it's slightly below Melee. That does put it in the near elite pool I guess, though not as near to the elite as Allen probably believed it was. It will certainly be interesting to see it again. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6179&num=2) --- ## (8)Pokémon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green vs (3)Super Mario 64 2015 _source: (8)Pokémon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green vs (3)Super Mario 64 2015 (revid 83329)_ ## Results **Bonus** Wednesday, December 16, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis "Death By Rally" Allen was nice enough to give us 4 simultaneous bonus polls after this contest, and while none of the matches were particularly good, bonus polls is always better than no bonus polls. The third bonus poll was pretty neat, even though it was still a blowout, and was the only one that finished closer than 60-40. Allen took two games that Undertale rallied past and put them in a poll together, and him being cool enough to pick Pokemon vs Mario 64 meant that we got a pretty decent indicator of the whole Mario 3 vs Mario World vs Mario 64 hierarchy. If you take this bonus poll literally, the order is probably Mario World \> Mario 3 \> Mario 64. Mario 3 did better against Pokemon pre-rally than Mario 64 did in this match, and we have direct evidence of Mario World being stronger than Mario 3: FF7 was by itself in that match, so it was no factor for the comparison. In that match, Mario World finished higher than 3 even with Link to the Past in the poll. And LTTP has far more overlap with World than 3, so in reality it would have hurt World more. World won anyway. Until I see further evidence, I'm going with World \> 3 \> 64. This match also proved me hilariously wrong about believing in 3 \> Pokemon one final time. Not only would Pokemon have annihilated the Mario games, but there isn't a doubt in my mind it would have won this contest had Undertale and Melee not rallied their balls off. Assuming a non-Undertale contest path, you get Pokemon beating Tetris, Mario 3, Sonic 2, Mario World, then Mario 64. Chrono Trigger probably wins against Melee with no rally, I won't argue that. But Chrono Trigger vs Pokemon is a debate worth having and a match I'd love to see, but I legitimately don't see how Chrono Trigger wins that. Undertale and Melee not getting bandwagoned doesn't mean nothing would, and in a semifinal of CT vs Pokemon and Ocarina vs SMRPG, Pokemon is the rally bait. I really think it would have beaten Chrono Trigger and won the contest, but we have no way of knowing. It did give Undertale its toughest test outside Melee though, which I think counts for a lot. I see no reason Pokemon couldn't repeat that rally in a contest semifinal against a game that always chokes. When and if we get another games contest, CT vs RBYG is absolutely a match that needs to happen. ### Ctes' Analysis The fourth of our four bonus matches, labeled “2009 Rematch”. This match just had to be there. I mean, Chrono Trigger vs. Ocarina of Time would likely be way more exiting, but first of all, spillover would likely ruin it, and secondly, there wouldn't really be any sense in having such a match. I suppose it could go under the “Death by Rally” label as all our elites games beside A Link to the Past technically lost that way, but in Ocarina of Time's situation, it was a bit different. Sure, it was a rally, but at this point Undertale was more than that. The same could be said of Super Mario 64, but at least that game looked like it was actually in the match it lost. Ocarina of Time's death was a lot more than just by rally. I probably wouldn't have named it 2009 Rematch. It's not wrong of course, but a lot of matches could be made where that label fits. “Previous Champion Battle” or something along those lines would've been better in my opinion, but at least throwing “finale” into this label would've been nice. This match was never in doubt at all. It would be an easy win for Ocarina of Time. Spillover from the final seems to have affected the match in Ocarina of Time's favor, but spillover or not, Final Fantasy VII is significantly behind Ocarina of Time these days. Maybe it'll get a boost when the remake comes or if the main nostalgic era of GameFAQs becomes it's time. It boosted Chrono Trigger, but that game aged better as well. That said, it just seemed right to have this match. They are the defending champions and not just that. Link and Cloud have had so many finales that both games have gotten this “always wins” thing going for them, even though that's certainly not fair to Final Fantasy VII these days. I guess to people that disliked seeing rallies take over, the classic final match was brought. It's also nice in that sense Undertale wasn't in the bonus matches. It deserves to I suppose, but coming right after the finale, it would've just been very boring seeing it destroy further. I'm sure everyone can agree that there would be no point in having Undertale in a bonus match. As for this one, I gotta admit myself that it's nice to have the very last match be these two going against each other. Would've thought that if it was the finale too, but as a bonus match, it's just a solid ending to a solid contest. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6181&num=2) --- ## (2)Final Fantasy VII vs (1)The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 2015 _source: (2)Final Fantasy VII vs (1)The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 2015 (revid 83330)_ ## Results **Bonus** Wednesday, December 16, 2015 ### Ulti's Analysis "2009 Rematch" Allen was nice enough to give us 4 simultaneous bonus polls after this contest, and while none of the matches were particularly good, bonus polls is always better than no bonus polls. The last of them was a good old fashioned Ocarina vs FF7 duel, and just for posterity's sake, let's pull up every contest match featuring these two (we're not counting the villains or series contest here, just direct matches: Two were bonus polls, but still, Ocarina is now 3-1 against FF7 directly and the result grows more and more in Ocarina's favor with each passing year. FF7 looked great early in this contest, especially with remake hype and Cloud being in Smash 4, but then the episodic announcement murdered FF7's momentum. The final nail in that coffin was Ocarina damn near breaking 40% on it, which would have happened without FF7's traditionally good day vote. I like Ocarina and all, but as an FF7 fan who is currently playing the PS4 port and still loves the game to death, this was painful to watch. I don't mind the game losing, but seeing it this weak is tough. I don't know when or why it became cool to hate the game so much, but it really sucks. Final Fantasy 7 really is one of the best games ever, and deserves better than being Ocarina's bitch. If these two ever meet in another contest 1v1, I'm sure Ocarina will break 60%. Not that this will happen, since FF7 has been routinely jobbing out, and with Tetsuya Nomura and Yoshinori Kitase being involved with an episodic remake, I have zero hope in that remake being any good. Their track record speaks for itself. I was hyped for that remake for about 5 minutes, but honestly, just let the game die with some dignity. FF7 in its original form is just fine as-is. ### Ctes' Analysis The third of our four bonus matches, labeled “Death By Rally”. A label that would've fit so many different matches this contest. Every single game that I would be interested in seeing in a bonus match lost that way, with A Link to the Past being the sole exception. That doesn't mean it shouldn't have been used as a label, but with that said, I think the games chosen could have been better. Also, while Super Mario 64 did lose to a rally, it felt a lot more like a natural match compared to Undertale's first four matches, which had it losing for quite a while and then making insane comebacks. Super Mario World definitely seems like a better choice for this match. Switch it with any of the two in this match and we have a more exciting match. Even if it seems clear that RBY \> World \> 64 is the hierarchy, it'd be very nice to actually have the matches. RBY showed itself a step above the Mario games already when it was beating 3 prior to rally spillover and put up as good a fight against Undertale as it did. RBY does however most definitely deserve to have a bonus match. That's why I think RBY vs. Super Mario World would've been the best choice here. They lost the same way to Undertale and this would've been quite a bit closer. RBY didn't beat 3 by that much and 3 is probably only slightly weaker than World now, which is basically just due to being a NES game, it used to be the more popular of the two. Speaking of that, having Super Mario Bros. 3 in a bonus match too would've been great, but I think perhaps Allen prefers having games that got far in the bonus matches. If you think the three big Mario games are roughly equals then that obviously favors 64 as the representative. I just think it's a step below the 2D games, which are probably closer in strength. It's somewhat unfortunate, the 2D Mario games only lost early because of incredibly unlucky bracket placement and thus their chances of appearing in these matches likely went away. RBY is near elite, but I honestly don't think it rally swallow the contest. It's slightly stronger than the strongest Mario game, which still puts it below Ocarina of Time, Chrono Trigger and A Link to the Past at the very least. Then RBY can be rallied for, but only to some extend. At the biggest places, RBY is apparently despised. If needed, it can boost itself, but there's a very clear roof to that. Particularly because the Pokemon subreddit doesn't allow several threads about the same contest match. Putting it against one of the three aforementioned games would be very fun. For starters though, Super Mario World would've been more fun in this match. ## External Links - [Match Updates](http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6180&num=2)