The Spring 2K4 SFF-Adjusted Extrapolated Standings

Submitted by creativename on Mon, 2005-05-02 04:31. SpC2K4

The following matches were widely believed to cause much inaccuracy in the regular extrapolated standings, due to the very likely influence of Same Fanbase Factor. These SFF-adjusted standings attempt to rectify this by adjusting the losers upwards by a substantial amount. Note that this amount then "trickles down" and raises up any games that they were beneath them in the bracket tree. The adjustment factor for these games was 60%—a number based on no solid data whatsoever. This was simply something I thought was reasonable and simple. Thus, while it is believed these standings should be more accurate than the un-adjusted standings, they are quite "gimmicked".

The games receiving a 60% (i.e., scaled upwards by a factor of 1.6) boost, with the game they lost to in parantheses:

Mario 64 (Ocarina of Time)
Super Metroid (A Link to the Past)
Donkey Kong (The Legend of Zelda)
Metroid (Super Mario Bros. 3)

There was also a relatively small upwards adjustment of 7.5% made to The Legend of Zelda (for its match against Super Mario Bros. 3).

The Same Fanbase Factor Adjusted Spring 2K4 Extrapolated Standings

Extrapolated Rank	Game	Expected % Against Final Fantasy VII	Division	Seed	Expected Seed
1	Final Fantasy VII	50.00%	32-64	1	1
2	The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time	46.18%	32-64	2	2
3	Chrono Trigger	41.76%	16	1	1
4	The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past	41.61%	16	6	2
5	Super Mario Bros. 3	39.90%	8	1	1
6	Final Fantasy III (VI)	39.40%	16	2	3
7	Super Smash Bros. Melee	37.57%	128	2	1
8	Starcraft	37.36%	128	16	2
9	The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker	37.29%	128	5	3
10	Halo: Combat Evolved	37.24%	128	1	4
11	The Legend of Zelda	37.08%	8	3	2
12	Final Fantasy X	36.86%	128	3	5
13	Super Mario 64	35.08%	32-64	7	3
14	Grand Theft Auto: Vice City	34.91%	128	7	6
15	Kingdom Hearts	34.70%	128	9	7
16	Super Metroid	34.61%	16	3	4
17	Soul Calibur	34.28%	128	8	8
18	Super Mario World	34.24%	16	4	5
19	Metroid Prime	33.40%	128	4	9
20	Metal Gear Solid 2	32.52%	128	15	10
21	Final Fantasy	32.24%	8	4	3
22	Half-Life	29.28%	128	13	11
23	Metal Gear Solid	28.70%	32-64	4	4
24	Final Fantasy Tactics	28.68%	32-64	5	5
25	Metroid	28.04%	8	8	4
26	Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic	27.71%	128	10	12
27	Super Mario RPG	27.51%	16	8	6
28	Goldeneye	24.89%	32-64	3	6
29	Final Fantasy Tactics Advance	24.67%	128	6	13
30	Street Fighter II	24.08%	16	9	7
31	Doom	21.49%	16	10	8
32	Mortal Kombat	21.21%	16	15	9
33	Castlevania: Symphony of the Night	20.27%	32-64	11	7
34	Sonic the Hedgehog 2	20.15%	16	5	10
35	Xenogears	19.97%	32-64	9	8
36	Contra	19.31%	8	12	5
37	Perfect Dark	18.98%	32-64	6	9
38	Skies of Arcadia	18.86%	128	12	14
39	Tetris	18.86%	8	2	6
40	Shenmue	18.82%	128	14	15
41	Earthbound	18.47%	16	7	11
42	Pac-Man	17.66%	8	9	7
43	Secret of Mana	17.21%	16	16	12
44	Resident Evil	16.86%	32-64	13	10
45	Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal	16.80%	32-64	8	11
46	Fire Emblem	16.59%	128	11	16
47	Donkey Kong	15.38%	8	6	8
48	Duck Hunt	15.36%	8	11	9
49	Phantasy Star	15.06%	8	5	10
50	Suikoden II	14.37%	32-64	16	12
51	Metal Gear	14.13%	8	16	11
52	Dance Dance Revolution	13.75%	32-64	12	13
53	The Simpsons	12.69%	16	13	13
54	Fallout 2	12.64%	32-64	15	14
55	Phantasy Star IV	11.57%	16	14	14
56	NiGHTS into dreams...	10.64%	32-64	10	15
57	Pong	10.01%	8	7	12
58	Panzer Dragoon Saga	09.55%	32-64	14	16
59	Galaga	08.20%	8	15	13
60	Pitfall	07.98%	8	13	14
61	Shining Force	07.78%	16	12	15
62	Gunstar Heroes	07.37%	16	11	16
63	River City Ransom	06.40%	8	10	15
64	Adventure	03.56%	8	14	16

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The Spring 2K4 SFF-Adjusted Extrapolated Standings

The Same Fanbase Factor Adjusted Spring 2K4 Extrapolated Standings