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Luce Fit Ratings — Rivalry Rumble (2011)

Fit independently for each contest by finding the ratings that minimize equal-poll cross-entropy loss under the Luce choice proportional-strength model. The strongest entrant in a contest is always set at 50.00.

For standard brackets this should be almost the same as the x-stats. For more complex formats, ratings are found that minimize the sum of the loss function. It is like finding the values that minimize the sum of squared errors, except the loss function here is cross-entropy rather than sum of squared errors.

Contest: SC2K2 · SC2K3 · Spring 2K4 · SC2K4 · Spring 2K5 · SC2K5 · BSE2K6 · CB2K6 · CB VI · CB VII · BGE 2K9 · CB VIII · GOTD · Rivalry · CB IX · BGE 2K15 · Best Year · CB X · GOTD 2

Predict the top 8 of Rivalry Rumble (2011) against each other. Or graph the top 8 for their careers.

Rivalry Rumble (2011) — 64 entrants, 63 matches. Click a column heading to sort.

# ▲EntrantLuce rating
1 Link vs. Ganondorf 50.00
2 Mario vs. Bowser 42.28
3 Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth 41.74
4 Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Pokemon Trainer Blue 36.87
5 Solid Snake vs. Liquid Snake 30.41
6 Ryu vs. Ken 27.99
7 Samus Aran vs. Ridley 27.55
8 Mega Man X vs. Zero 26.81
9 Big Boss vs. The Boss 24.86
10 Mega Man vs. Dr. Wily 24.74
11 Sub-Zero vs. Scorpion 24.74
12 Crono vs. Lavos 23.46
13 Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Dr. Robotnik 23.39
14 Alucard vs. Dracula 22.40
15 Chris Redfield vs. Albert Wesker 20.24
16 Frog vs. Magus 20.22
17 Terra Branford vs. Kefka Palazzo 19.69
18 Chell vs. GLaDOS 19.26
19 Squall Leonhart vs. Seifer Almasy 18.33
20 Tidus vs. Jecht 18.30
21 Phoenix Wright vs. Miles Edgeworth 18.09
22 Lloyd Irving vs. Kratos Aurion 17.93
23 Sora vs. Riku 17.92
24 Kratos vs. Zeus 17.81
25 Dante vs. Vergil 17.42
26 Fox McCloud vs. Wolf O'Donnell 17.32
27 Pac-Man vs. Blinky 17.29
28 Raiden vs. Vamp 16.54
29 Amaterasu vs. Orochi 16.31
30 Kirby vs. Meta Knight 15.65
31 Donkey Kong vs. King K. Rool 15.33
32 Ike vs. Black Knight 15.10
33 Jim Raynor vs. Sarah Kerrigan 14.91
34 Arthas vs. Illidan 14.70
35 Gordon Freeman vs. Dr. Breen 14.50
36 Zidane Tribal vs. Kuja 14.42
37 Commander Shepard vs. Saren Arterius 14.38
38 Ness vs. Giygas 14.19
39 Luigi vs. Waluigi 14.17
40 William B.J. Blazkowicz vs. Adolf 12.61
41 Yuna vs. Seymour Guado 11.85
42 Cecil Harvey vs. Golbez 11.79
43 Jill Valentine vs. Nemesis 11.64
44 Earthworm Jim vs. Queen Slug-for-a-Butt 11.16
45 Conker vs. The Great Mighty Poo 10.83
46 Leon Kennedy vs. Ada Wong 10.73
47 Crash Bandicoot vs. Dr. Neo Cortex 10.72
48 Ezio Auditore da Firenze vs. Rodrigo Borgia 10.69
49 Katherine vs. Catherine 10.09
50 Siegfried vs. Nightmare 10.05
51 Bartz Klauser vs. Gilgamesh 9.76
52 Banjo vs. Gruntilda 8.72
53 Tom Nook vs. Crazy Redd 8.72
54 Meat Boy vs. Dr. Fetus 8.45
55 The Kid vs. The Guy 8.37
56 Captain Falcon vs. Black Shadow 8.18
57 Ramza Beoulve vs. Delita Hyral 8.16
58 Ratchet vs. Dr. Nefarious 8.04
59 Laharl vs. Mid-Boss 7.43
60 Professor Layton vs. Don Paolo 7.03
61 Dan Hibiki vs. Sagat 6.24
62 Vyse vs. Galcian 6.24
63 Guybrush Threepwood vs. LeChuck 5.68
64 Sol Badguy vs. Ky Kiske 4.26