Luce Fit Ratings — Best Year in Gaming (2017)

Fit independently for each contest by finding the ratings that minimize equal-poll cross-entropy loss under the Luce choice proportional-strength model. The strongest entrant in a contest is always set at 50.00.

For standard brackets this should be almost the same as the x-stats. For more complex formats, ratings are found that minimize the sum of the loss function. It is like finding the values that minimize the sum of squared errors, except the loss function here is cross-entropy rather than sum of squared errors.

Contest: SC2K2 · SC2K3 · Spring 2K4 · SC2K4 · Spring 2K5 · SC2K5 · BSE2K6 · CB2K6 · CB VI · CB VII · BGE 2K9 · CB VIII · GOTD · Rivalry · CB IX · BGE 2K15 · Best Year · CB X · GOTD 2

Predict the top 8 of Best Year in Gaming (2017) against each other. Or graph the top 8 for their careers.

Best Year in Gaming (2017) — 36 entrants, 35 matches. Click a column heading to sort.

# ▲EntrantLuce rating
1 1998 50.00
2 2001 33.81
3 1994 33.65
4 1997 32.27
5 1995 31.95
6 1991 30.69
7 1987 29.91
8 1992 27.15
9 2002 26.67
10 2004 26.31
11 2011 23.69
12 2006 20.35
13 2008 19.09
14 2003 18.65
15 1996 17.53
16 2000 16.75
17 2007 16.30
18 2005 14.40
19 2013 14.22
20 1993 14.08
21 2010 13.28
22 1985 12.80
23 1999 12.30
24 2016 12.16
25 2015 10.46
26 1990 9.66
27 2014 9.37
28 2009 8.47
29 1981 8.13
30 1988 5.93
31 2012 5.63
32 1986 5.48
33 1989 3.98
34 1978 2.77
35 1979 2.11
36 1983 1.77