Luce Fit Ratings — Best Series Ever 2006

Fit independently for each contest by finding the ratings that minimize equal-poll cross-entropy loss under the Luce choice proportional-strength model. The strongest entrant in a contest is always set at 50.00.

For standard brackets this should be almost the same as the x-stats. For more complex formats, ratings are found that minimize the sum of the loss function. It is like finding the values that minimize the sum of squared errors, except the loss function here is cross-entropy rather than sum of squared errors.

Contest: SC2K2 · SC2K3 · Spring 2K4 · SC2K4 · Spring 2K5 · SC2K5 · BSE2K6 · CB2K6 · CB VI · CB VII · BGE 2K9 · CB VIII · GOTD · Rivalry · CB IX · BGE 2K15 · Best Year · CB X · GOTD 2

Predict the top 8 of Best Series Ever 2006 against each other. Or graph the top 8 for their careers.

Best Series Ever 2006 — 32 entrants, 31 matches. Click a column heading to sort.

# ▲EntrantLuce rating
1 The Legend of Zelda 50.00
2 Final Fantasy 49.02
3 Super Mario Bros. 45.78
4 Super Smash Bros. 34.33
5 Sonic the Hedgehog 27.74
6 Metal Gear 26.26
7 Mega Man 25.06
8 Resident Evil 23.23
9 Street Fighter 22.72
10 Kingdom Hearts 20.30
11 Mega Man X 19.68
12 Castlevania 19.45
13 Mario Kart 19.42
14 Halo 16.49
15 Warcraft 16.42
16 Grand Theft Auto 16.18
17 Fire Emblem 15.96
18 Metroid 15.30
19 Pokemon 14.02
20 Dragon Quest 13.92
21 The Elder Scrolls 13.79
22 Devil May Cry 13.63
23 Diablo 13.56
24 Soul Calibur 13.30
25 Silent Hill 12.51
26 Civilization 10.03
27 Harvest Moon 8.56
28 Suikoden 8.46
29 Star Ocean 7.83
30 Kirby 7.00
31 Madden NFL 6.66
32 Shadow Hearts 4.05