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Luce Fit Ratings — Rivalry Rumble (2011)

Fit independently for each contest by finding the ratings that minimize equal-poll cross-entropy loss under the Luce choice proportional-strength model. The strongest entrant in a contest is always set at 50.00.

For standard brackets this should be almost the same as the x-stats. For more complex formats, ratings are found that minimize the sum of the loss function. It is like finding the values that minimize the sum of squared errors, except the loss function here is cross-entropy rather than sum of squared errors.

Contest: SC2K2 · SC2K3 · Spring 2K4 · SC2K4 · Spring 2K5 · SC2K5 · BSE2K6 · CB2K6 · CB VI · CB VII · BGE 2K9 · CB VIII · GOTD · Rivalry · CB IX · BGE 2K15 · Best Year · CB X · GOTD 2

Predict the top 8 of Rivalry Rumble (2011) against each other. Or graph the top 8 for their careers.

Rivalry Rumble (2011) — 64 entrants, 63 matches. Click a column heading to sort.

# ▼EntrantLuce rating
64 Sol Badguy vs. Ky Kiske 4.26
63 Guybrush Threepwood vs. LeChuck 5.68
62 Vyse vs. Galcian 6.24
61 Dan Hibiki vs. Sagat 6.24
60 Professor Layton vs. Don Paolo 7.03
59 Laharl vs. Mid-Boss 7.43
58 Ratchet vs. Dr. Nefarious 8.04
57 Ramza Beoulve vs. Delita Hyral 8.16
56 Captain Falcon vs. Black Shadow 8.18
55 The Kid vs. The Guy 8.37
54 Meat Boy vs. Dr. Fetus 8.45
53 Tom Nook vs. Crazy Redd 8.72
52 Banjo vs. Gruntilda 8.72
51 Bartz Klauser vs. Gilgamesh 9.76
50 Siegfried vs. Nightmare 10.05
49 Katherine vs. Catherine 10.09
48 Ezio Auditore da Firenze vs. Rodrigo Borgia 10.69
47 Crash Bandicoot vs. Dr. Neo Cortex 10.72
46 Leon Kennedy vs. Ada Wong 10.73
45 Conker vs. The Great Mighty Poo 10.83
44 Earthworm Jim vs. Queen Slug-for-a-Butt 11.16
43 Jill Valentine vs. Nemesis 11.64
42 Cecil Harvey vs. Golbez 11.79
41 Yuna vs. Seymour Guado 11.85
40 William B.J. Blazkowicz vs. Adolf 12.61
39 Luigi vs. Waluigi 14.17
38 Ness vs. Giygas 14.19
37 Commander Shepard vs. Saren Arterius 14.38
36 Zidane Tribal vs. Kuja 14.42
35 Gordon Freeman vs. Dr. Breen 14.50
34 Arthas vs. Illidan 14.70
33 Jim Raynor vs. Sarah Kerrigan 14.91
32 Ike vs. Black Knight 15.10
31 Donkey Kong vs. King K. Rool 15.33
30 Kirby vs. Meta Knight 15.65
29 Amaterasu vs. Orochi 16.31
28 Raiden vs. Vamp 16.54
27 Pac-Man vs. Blinky 17.29
26 Fox McCloud vs. Wolf O'Donnell 17.32
25 Dante vs. Vergil 17.42
24 Kratos vs. Zeus 17.81
23 Sora vs. Riku 17.92
22 Lloyd Irving vs. Kratos Aurion 17.93
21 Phoenix Wright vs. Miles Edgeworth 18.09
20 Tidus vs. Jecht 18.30
19 Squall Leonhart vs. Seifer Almasy 18.33
18 Chell vs. GLaDOS 19.26
17 Terra Branford vs. Kefka Palazzo 19.69
16 Frog vs. Magus 20.22
15 Chris Redfield vs. Albert Wesker 20.24
14 Alucard vs. Dracula 22.40
13 Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Dr. Robotnik 23.39
12 Crono vs. Lavos 23.46
11 Sub-Zero vs. Scorpion 24.74
10 Mega Man vs. Dr. Wily 24.74
9 Big Boss vs. The Boss 24.86
8 Mega Man X vs. Zero 26.81
7 Samus Aran vs. Ridley 27.55
6 Ryu vs. Ken 27.99
5 Solid Snake vs. Liquid Snake 30.41
4 Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Pokemon Trainer Blue 36.87
3 Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth 41.74
2 Mario vs. Bowser 42.28
1 Link vs. Ganondorf 50.00