Luce Fit Ratings — Character Battle X (2018)

Fit independently for each contest by finding the ratings that minimize equal-poll cross-entropy loss under the Luce choice proportional-strength model. The strongest entrant in a contest is always set at 50.00.

For standard brackets this should be almost the same as the x-stats. For more complex formats, ratings are found that minimize the sum of the loss function. It is like finding the values that minimize the sum of squared errors, except the loss function here is cross-entropy rather than sum of squared errors.

Contest: SC2K2 · SC2K3 · Spring 2K4 · SC2K4 · Spring 2K5 · SC2K5 · BSE2K6 · CB2K6 · CB VI · CB VII · BGE 2K9 · CB VIII · GOTD · Rivalry · CB IX · BGE 2K15 · Best Year · CB X · GOTD 2

Predict the top 8 of Character Battle X (2018) against each other. Or graph the top 8 for their careers.

Character Battle X (2018) — 136 entrants, 150 matches. Click a column heading to sort.

# ▼EntrantLuce rating
136 Draven 3.51
135 Chloe Price 3.81
134 Victor Sullivan 5.44
133 Quiet 5.95
132 Goro Majima 6.45
131 Neku Sakuraba 7.12
130 Dragonborn 7.19
129 Estelle Bright 7.41
128 Cayde-6 7.64
127 Monokuma 7.80
126 Aya Brea 7.81
125 Cuphead 7.96
124 Yu Narukami 8.03
123 Joel 8.63
122 John Marston 8.73
121 James Sunderland 9.01
120 Godot 9.33
119 Metal Man 9.51
118 Noctis Lucis Caelum 9.76
117 Hat Kid 9.87
116 Isabelle 9.95
115 Sans 10.10
114 Neptune 10.15
113 Aqua 10.15
112 Lightning 10.24
111 Aloy 10.31
110 Gordon Freeman 10.55
109 Guile 10.56
108 Kazuma Kiryu 10.58
107 Ren Amamiya / Joker 10.75
106 Primrose 10.78
105 Chris Redfield 10.82
104 Monika 11.17
103 Ellie 11.29
102 Miles Edgeworth 11.33
101 Shantae 11.44
100 D.Va 11.44
99 Lloyd Irving 11.56
98 King K. Rool 11.94
97 Claire Redfield 12.20
96 Commander Shepard 12.47
95 Nathan Drake 12.75
94 Isaac (Golden Sun) 12.75
93 Master Hand 12.79
92 Ryo Hazuki 12.95
91 KOS-MOS 13.21
90 Richter Belmont 13.22
89 Spyro the Dragon 13.30
88 Master Chief 13.32
87 Velvet Crowe 13.43
86 Ike 13.51
85 Phoenix Wright 13.82
84 Tidus 13.90
83 Shulk 14.04
82 Riku 14.41
81 Leon Kennedy 14.51
80 Geno 14.53
79 L-Block 15.35
78 Albert Wesker 15.38
77 Bomberman 15.55
76 Ramza Beoulve 15.88
75 Lucina 15.88
74 Metal Sonic 15.94
73 Miles "Tails" Prower 16.07
72 Garrus Vakarian 16.22
71 Ezio Auditore da Firenze 16.30
70 Chun-Li 16.43
69 GlaDOS 16.74
68 Zidane Tribal 17.10
67 King Dedede 17.27
66 Revolver Ocelot 17.55
65 Donkey Kong 17.58
64 Shovel Knight 17.87
63 Dante 17.89
62 Shadow the Hedgehog 17.99
61 Lara Croft 18.18
60 Scorpion 18.61
59 Wario 18.64
58 Captain Falcon 18.85
57 Cecil Harvey 19.23
56 Captain Toad 19.43
55 Ridley 19.46
54 The Boss 19.77
53 Rosalina 19.84
52 Ness 19.99
51 Vivi 20.67
50 Kratos 20.69
49 Magus 20.80
48 Waluigi 21.14
47 Amaterasu 21.30
46 Knuckles the Echidna 21.33
45 Yuna 21.39
44 Sub-Zero 21.44
43 Frog 21.49
42 Kefka 21.51
41 Jill Valentine 21.59
40 Terra Branford 21.70
39 Ryu Hayabusa 21.87
38 Pac-Man 21.89
37 Crash Bandicoot 21.97
36 Ganondorf 21.98
35 Vincent Valentine 22.08
34 Ryu 22.09
33 Simon Belmont 22.41
32 2B 22.48
31 Bayonetta 23.34
30 Princess Peach 23.40
29 Charizard 23.67
28 Geralt 23.97
27 Big Boss 24.01
26 Fox McCloud 24.50
25 Sora 24.95
24 Mewtwo 25.08
23 Squall Leonhart 25.62
22 Pokemon Trainer Red 25.64
21 Kirby 25.70
20 Zero (Mega Man X) 25.78
19 Auron 26.34
18 Aerith Gainsborough 26.56
17 Yoshi 27.16
16 Alucard 28.66
15 Bowser 28.75
14 Sephiroth 30.07
13 Sonic the Hedgehog 30.18
12 Luigi 30.53
11 Pikachu 31.13
10 Mega Man 31.18
9 Mega Man X 31.55
8 Tifa Lockhart 31.70
7 Crono 32.37
6 Solid Snake 35.94
5 Zelda 37.29
4 Mario 38.87
3 Cloud Strife 39.10
2 Samus Aran 39.61
1 Link 50.00