Luce Fit Ratings — Best Series Ever 2006

Fit independently for each contest by finding the ratings that minimize equal-poll cross-entropy loss under the Luce choice proportional-strength model. The strongest entrant in a contest is always set at 50.00.

For standard brackets this should be almost the same as the x-stats. For more complex formats, ratings are found that minimize the sum of the loss function. It is like finding the values that minimize the sum of squared errors, except the loss function here is cross-entropy rather than sum of squared errors.

Contest: SC2K2 · SC2K3 · Spring 2K4 · SC2K4 · Spring 2K5 · SC2K5 · BSE2K6 · CB2K6 · CB VI · CB VII · BGE 2K9 · CB VIII · GOTD · Rivalry · CB IX · BGE 2K15 · Best Year · CB X · GOTD 2

Predict the top 8 of Best Series Ever 2006 against each other. Or graph the top 8 for their careers.

Best Series Ever 2006 — 32 entrants, 31 matches. Click a column heading to sort.

# ▼EntrantLuce rating
32 Shadow Hearts 4.05
31 Madden NFL 6.66
30 Kirby 7.00
29 Star Ocean 7.83
28 Suikoden 8.46
27 Harvest Moon 8.56
26 Civilization 10.03
25 Silent Hill 12.51
24 Soul Calibur 13.30
23 Diablo 13.56
22 Devil May Cry 13.63
21 The Elder Scrolls 13.79
20 Dragon Quest 13.92
19 Pokemon 14.02
18 Metroid 15.30
17 Fire Emblem 15.96
16 Grand Theft Auto 16.18
15 Warcraft 16.42
14 Halo 16.49
13 Mario Kart 19.42
12 Castlevania 19.45
11 Mega Man X 19.68
10 Kingdom Hearts 20.30
9 Street Fighter 22.72
8 Resident Evil 23.23
7 Mega Man 25.06
6 Metal Gear 26.26
5 Sonic the Hedgehog 27.74
4 Super Smash Bros. 34.33
3 Super Mario Bros. 45.78
2 Final Fantasy 49.02
1 The Legend of Zelda 50.00