SpC2K4

GameFAQs Spring 2004 Game Contest

Match updates for Spring 2K4

[Graphs: A=Cumulative %, B=% Per Update, C=Overlapping]
PollIDGraphEntrant 1Entrant 2
1663A / B / CChrono TriggerFinal Fantasy VII
1662A / B / CFinal Fantasy VIISuper Smash Bros. Melee
1661A / B / CSuper Mario Bros. 3Chrono Trigger
1660A / B / CStarcraftSuper Smash Bros. Melee
1659A / B / CFinal Fantasy VIIThe Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
1658A / B / CChrono TriggerThe Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
1657A / B / CSuper Mario Bros. 3The Legend of Zelda
1656A / B / CFinal Fantasy XSuper Smash Bros. Melee
1655A / B / CStarcraftThe Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
1654A / B / CGoldeneyeThe Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
1653A / B / CFinal Fantasy VIIMetal Gear Solid
1652A / B / CThe Legend of Zelda: A Link to the PastFinal Fantasy III (VI)
1651A / B / CChrono TriggerSuper Mario World
1650A / B / CThe Legend of ZeldaTetris
1649A / B / CSuper Mario Bros. 3Final Fantasy
1648A / B / CGrand Theft Auto: Vice CitySuper Smash Bros. Melee
1647A / B / CFinal Fantasy Tactics AdvanceFinal Fantasy X
1646A / B / CThe Legend of Zelda: The Wind WakerMetroid Prime
1645A / B / CStarcraftKingdom Hearts
1644A / B / CSuper Mario 64The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
1643A / B / CCastlevania: Symphony of the NightGoldeneye
1642A / B / CFinal Fantasy TacticsMetal Gear Solid
1641A / B / CFinal Fantasy VIIXenogears
1640A / B / CDoomFinal Fantasy III (VI)
1639A / B / CThe Legend of Zelda: A Link to the PastSuper Metroid
1638A / B / CSonic the Hedgehog 2Super Mario World
1637A / B / CChrono TriggerSuper Mario RPG
1636A / B / CPongTetris
1635A / B / CDonkey KongThe Legend of Zelda
1634A / B / CContraFinal Fantasy
1633A / B / CSuper Mario Bros. 3Metroid
1632A / B / CSuper Smash Bros. MeleeMetal Gear Solid 2
1631A / B / CGrand Theft Auto: Vice CityStar Wars: Knights of the Old Republic
1630A / B / CFinal Fantasy XShenmue
1629A / B / CFinal Fantasy Tactics AdvanceFire Emblem
1628A / B / CMetroid PrimeHalf-Life
1627A / B / CThe Legend of Zelda: The Wind WakerSkies of Arcadia
1626A / B / CSoul CaliburKingdom Hearts
1625A / B / CHalo: Combat EvolvedStarcraft
1624A / B / CT he Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of TimeFallout 2
1623A / B / CSuper Mario 64NiGHTS into dreams...
1622A / B / CGoldeneyePanzer Dragoon Saga
1610A / B / CSuper Mario RPGStreet Fighter II

The Spring 2K4 SFF-Adjusted Extrapolated Standings

The following matches were widely believed to cause much inaccuracy in the regular extrapolated standings, due to the very likely influence of Same Fanbase Factor. These SFF-adjusted standings attempt to rectify this by adjusting the losers upwards by a substantial amount. Note that this amount then "trickles down" and raises up any games that they were beneath them in the bracket tree. The adjustment factor for these games was 60%—a number based on no solid data whatsoever. This was simply something I thought was reasonable and simple. Thus, while it is believed these standings should be more accurate than the un-adjusted standings, they are quite "gimmicked".

The Spring 2K4 Extrapolated Standings

Extrapolated Rank Game Expected % Against Final Fantasy VII Division Seed Expected Seed
1 Final Fantasy VII
50.00%
32-64 1 1
2 The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
46.18%
32-64 2 2
3 Chrono Trigger
41.76%
16 1 1

SpC2K4 Matches

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Expectations Information - Click Here to add Consensus Oracle Challenge Predictions, Board Odds Project Picks, and overall bracket picks
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RankPoll IDMatch #Winner's SeedWinnerWinner's VotesWinner's PercentLoser's SeedLoserLoser's VotesLoser's PercentTotal VotesVote DifferencePercent DifferenceNotes
11663631Final Fantasy VII5807758.24%1Chrono Trigger4164741.76%997241643016.48%
21662621Final Fantasy VII5426462.43%2Super Smash Bros. Melee3265437.57%869182161024.86%
31661611Chrono Trigger4547952.23%1Super Mario Bros. 34159847.77%8707738814.46%
41660602Super Smash Bros. Melee4908250.27%16Starcraft4854849.73%976305340.55%
51659591Final Fantasy VII5262153.82%2Ocarina of Time4514546.18%9776674767.65%
61658581Chrono Trigger4949450.18%6A Link to the Past4913249.82%986263620.37%
71657571Super Mario Bros. 34431256.78%3The Legend of Zelda3373443.22%780461057813.55%
81656562Super Smash Bros. Melee4179850.94%3Final Fantasy X4025349.06%8205115451.88%
916555516Starcraft4148050.10%5The Wind Waker4130949.90%827891710.21%
101654542Ocarina of Time5294573.05%3Goldeneye1953626.95%724813340946.09%
111653531Final Fantasy VII5686171.30%4Metal Gear Solid2288428.70%797453397742.61%
121652526A Link to the Past4262852.66%2Final Fantasy VI3832647.34%8095443025.31%
131651511Chrono Trigger4504759.01%4Super Mario World3129440.99%763411375318.02%
141650503The Legend of Zelda5219774.57%2Tetris1780125.43%699983439649.14%
151649491Super Mario Bros. 34397759.60%4Final Fantasy2981340.40%737901416419.20%
161648482Super Smash Bros. Melee3703153.54%7Vice City3213846.46%6916948937.07%
171647473Final Fantasy X4339766.54%6Final Fantasy Tactics Advance2182133.46%652182157633.08%
181646465Wind Waker3690955.22%4Metroid Prime2993544.78%66844697410.43%
1916454516Starcraft4069853.57%9Kingdom Hearts3527446.43%7597254247.14%
201644442Ocarina of Time6006476.26%7Super Mario 641869723.74%787614136752.52%
211643433Goldeneye4444759.28%11Symphony of the Night3052840.72%749751391918.56%
221642424Metal Gear Solid4033050.02%5Final Fantasy Tactics4029249.98%80622380.05%
231641411Final Fantasy VII5787680.03%9Xenogears1444519.97%723214343160.05%
241640402Final Fantasy VI5407872.72%10Doom2028527.28%743633379345.44%
251639396A Link to the Past5341374.00%3Super Metroid1876326.00%721763465048.01%
261638384Super Mario World5191170.57%5Sonic 22164729.43%735583026441.14%
271637371Chrono Trigger5351667.06%8Super Mario RPG2628832.94%798042722834.12%
281636362Tetris4972373.47%7Pong1795626.53%676793176746.94%
291635353The Legend of Zelda6419387.04%6Donkey Kong955912.96%737525463474.08%
301634344Final Fantasy5589570.05%12Contra2390129.95%797963199440.09%
311633331Super Mario Bros. 36324678.04%8Metroid1779921.96%810454544756.08%
321632322Super Smash Bros. Melee4249456.72%15Metal Gear Solid 23242943.28%749231006513.43%
331631317Vice City5405560.32%10Knights of the Old Republic3556439.68%896191849120.63%5
341630303Final Fantasy X5766374.48%14Shenmue1976125.52%774243790248.95%
351629296Final Fantasy Tactics Advance4371666.36%11Fire Emblem2215933.64%658752155732.72%
361628284Metroid Prime4135456.16%13Half-Life3228843.84%73642906612.31%
371627275The Wind Waker5654474.71%12Skies of Arcadia1914325.29%756873740149.42%
381626269Kingdom Hearts4562050.60%8Soul Calibur4453249.40%9015210881.21%4
3916252516Starcraft5663150.17%1Halo5625849.83%1128893730.33%1
401624242Ocarina of Time8290386.31%15Fallout 21315013.69%960536975372.62%1
411623237Super Mario 646920984.83%10NiGHTS into dreams1237515.17%815845683469.66%1
421622223Goldeneye6107980.81%14Panzer Dragoon Saga1450419.19%755834657561.62%1
4316212111Symphony of the Night4081353.18%6Perfect Dark3593046.82%7674348836.36%1
441620204Metal Gear Solid5274570.62%13Resident Evil2194329.38%746883080241.24%1
451619195Final Fantasy Tactics6036176.03%12Dance Dance Revolution1902923.97%793904133252.06%1
461618189Xenogears4049557.95%8Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal2938142.05%698761111415.91%3
471617171Final Fantasy VII9174985.63%16Suikoden II1540114.37%1071507634871.25%1
481616162Final Fantasy VI7029273.08%15Mortal Kombat2589426.92%961864439846.16%1
4916151510Doom4929157.04%7Earthbound3712742.96%864181216414.08%1
501614143Super Metroid7052083.29%14Phantasy Star IV1414416.71%846645637666.59%1
511613136A Link to the Past8669091.15%11Gunstar Heroes84188.85%951087827282.30%1
521612124Super Mario World7925781.47%13The Simpsons1802818.53%972856122962.94%1
531611115Sonic 27838780.71%12Shining Force1873919.29%971265964861.41%1
541610108Super Mario RPG5439056.24%9Street Fighter II4231443.76%967041207612.49%1
55160991Chrono Trigger7169779.39%16Secret of Mana1861020.61%903075308758.79%1
56160882Tetris6612478.25%15Galaga1837721.75%845014774756.50%1
57160777Pong5767468.01%10River City Ransom2713031.99%848043054436.02%1
58160663The Legend of Zelda9289495.20%14Adventure46864.80%975808820890.40%1
59160556Donkey Kong4858750.07%11Duck Hunt4844449.93%970311430.15%1
60160444Final Fantasy8683987.63%13Pitfall1225612.37%990957458375.26%1
611603312Contra5559361.02%5Phantasy Star3551338.98%911062008022.04%1
62160228Metroid4983768.51%9Pac-Man2290631.49%727432693137.02%2
63160111Super Mario Bros. 36135982.30%16Metal Gear1319717.70%745564816264.60%2



NOTES:
* - Bracket Prediction numbers are estimates based on the numbers found on the "Correct Picks by Battle" percentages found on the Contest Statistics page, and the number of entries for each contest. These estimates could be off by +/- 10 brackets. Based on 16,764 brackets for SC2K2, 41,059 brackets in Summer 2K3, 40,940 in Spring 2K4, 33,221 in Summer 2K4, 24,748 in Spring 2K5, 33,793 in Summer 2K5, 46,198 in Summer 2K6, 42,646 in Fall 2K6.
1 - Original site layout
2 - Original site layout, sponsored poll displacing contest poll
3 - Xenogears vs. Pokemon match: repeated due to voting bug
4 - Kingdom Hearts vs. Soul Calibur match: Site layout switched around noon during this match
5 - Vice City vs. Knights of the Old Republic match: two-day match
6 - Match was 15 minutes short - delayed start
7 - Match was roughly 30 minutes short - site downtime from after 10:05pm to before 10:35pm EST
8 - Match was 25 hours due to Dalight Savings Time

SpC2K4 Bracket

The Spring 2004 Contest Bracket

   1 | Super Mario Bros. 3
61359
      
   1 | Super Mario Bros. 3
63246
     
16 | Metal Gear
13197
      
    1 | Super Mario Bros. 3
43977
    
  8 | Metroid
49837
      
   8 | Metroid
17799
     
  9 | Pac-Man
22906
      
     1 | Super Mario Bros. 3
44312
   
  5 | Phantasy Star
35513
      
 12 | Contra
23901
     
12 | Contra
55593
      
    4 | Final Fantasy
29813
    
  4 | Final Fantasy
86839
      
   4 | Final Fantasy
55895
     
13 | Pitfall
12256
      
      1 | Super Mario Bros. 3
41598
  
  6 | Donkey Kong
48587
      
   6 | Donkey Kong
9559
     
11 | Duck Hunt
48444
      
    3 | The Legend of Zelda
52197
    
  3 | The Legend of Zelda
92894
      
   3 | The Legend of Zelda
64193
     
14 | Adventure
4686
      
     3 | The Legend of Zelda
33734
   
  7 | Pong
57674
      
   7 | Pong
17956
     
10 | River City Ransom
27130
      
    2 | Tetris
17801
    
  2 | Tetris
66124
      
   2 | Tetris
49723
     
15 | Galaga
18377
      
       1 | Chrono Trigger
41647
 
   1 | Chrono Trigger
71697
      
   1 | Chrono Trigger
53516
     
16 | Secret of Mana
18610
      
    1 | Chrono Trigger
45047
    
  8 | Super Mario RPG
54390
      
   8 | Super Mario RPG
26288
     
  9 | Street Fighter II
42314
      
     1 | Chrono Trigger
49494
   
  5 | Sonic the Hedgehog 2
78387
      
   5 | Sonic the Hedgehog 2
21647
     
12 | Shining Force
18739
      
    4 | Super Mario World
31294
    
  4 | Super Mario World
79257
      
   4 | Super Mario World
51911
     
13 | The Simpsons
18028
      
      1 | Chrono Trigger
45479
  
  6 | The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
86690
      
   6 | The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
53413
     
11 | Gunstar Heroes
8418
      
    6 | The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
42628
    
  3 | Super Metroid
70520
      
   3 | Super Metroid
18763
     
14 | Phantasy Star IV
14144
      
     6 | The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
49132
   
  7 | Earthbound
37127
      
 10 | Doom
20285
     
10 | Doom
49291
      
    2 | Final Fantasy III (VI)
38326
    
  2 | Final Fantasy III (VI)
70292
      
   2 | Final Fantasy III (VI)
54078
     
15 | Mortal Kombat
25894
      
        1 | Final Fantasy VII
   1 | Final Fantasy VII
91749
      
   1 | Final Fantasy VII
57876
     
16 | Suikoden II
15401
      
    1 | Final Fantasy VII
56861
    
  8 | Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal
29381
      
   9 | Xenogears
14445
     
  9 | Xenogears
40495
      
     1 | Final Fantasy VII
52621
   
  5 | Final Fantasy Tactics
60361
      
   5 | Final Fantasy Tactics
40292
     
12 | Dance Dance Revolution
19029
      
    4 | Metal Gear Solid
22884
    
  4 | Metal Gear Solid
52745
      
   4 | Metal Gear Solid
40330
     
13 | Resident Evil
21943
      
      1 | Final Fantasy VII
54264
  
  6 | Perfect Dark
35930
      
 11 | Castlevania: Symphony of the Night
30528
     
11 | Castlevania: Symphony of the Night
40813
      
    3 | Goldeneye
19536
    
  3 | Goldeneye
61079
      
   3 | Goldeneye
44447
     
14 | Panzer Dragoon Saga
14504
      
     2 | The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
45145
   
  7 | Super Mario 64
69209
      
   7 | Super Mario 64
18697
     
10 | NiGHTS into dreams...
12375
      
    2 | The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
52945
    
  2 | The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
82903
      
   2 | The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
60064
     
15 | Fallout 2
13150
      
       1 | Final Fantasy VII
58077
 
   1 | Halo: Combat Evolved
56258
      
 16 | Starcraft
40698
     
16 | Starcraft
56631
      
  16 | Starcraft
41480
    
  8 | Soul Calibur
44532
      
   9 | Kingdom Hearts
35274
     
  9 | Kingdom Hearts
45620
      
   16 | Starcraft
48548
   
  5 | The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
56544
      
   5 | The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
36909
     
12 | Skies of Arcadia
19143
      
    5 | The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
41309
    
  4 | Metroid Prime
41354
      
   4 | Metroid Prime
29935
     
13 | Half-Life
32288
      
      2 | Super Smash Bros. Melee
32654
  
  6 | Final Fantasy Tactics Advance
43716
      
   6 | Final Fantasy Tactics Advance
21821
     
11 | Fire Emblem
22159
      
    3 | Final Fantasy X
40253
    
  3 | Final Fantasy X
57663
      
   3 | Final Fantasy X
43397
     
14 | Shenmue
19761
      
     2 | Super Smash Bros. Melee
49082
   
  7 | Grand Theft Auto: Vice City
54055
      
   7 | Grand Theft Auto: Vice City
32138
     
10 | Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic
35564
      
    2 | Super Smash Bros. Melee
41798
    
  2 | Super Smash Bros. Melee
42494
      
   2 | Super Smash Bros. Melee
37031
     
15 | Metal Gear Solid 2
32429
      
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